Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, September 29th
We learned something last night. Or rather realized something we probably should have already known, but failed to see yesterday. The Pirates and Cardinals are in a battle for the division. J.A. Happ and daily fantasy players became a casualty of that race when he was removed after just 59 pitches last night. We knew Happ didn’t have a record of going deep into games and if I told you beforehand that you’d get six shutout innings from him, we’d probably all be thrilled, but he seemed to have much more to give. It may not even come up again this season, but it’s a situation we need to be aware of. Managers who are still playing for divisions are going to be aggressive and sometimes that may mean there’s a possibility of losing a pitcher earlier than we should. If you think it’s upsetting now, just wait until the post-season next week. Managers will (rightfully) go to their bullpens at the drop of a hat. Every game, inning, and sometimes pitch is important.
Today, is both a joyous and said occasion. Happy because Kershaw is pitching, but said because it’s the last time we’ll cover him (and Bumgarner) this year. I’m going to miss losing precious writing time staring at the screen in awe of his numbers for minutes at a time this winter.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 2.7 | 3.82 | 5.13 | 1.1 | 0.94 | 3.67 | 2.45 | TAM | 100 | 110 | 102 | 23.5% | 5.7% | 19.8% | 9.6% | 15.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.6 | 3.87 | 6.39 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 3.98 | 5.45 | PHI | 85 | 83 | 96 | 17.4% | 5.3% | 21.6% | 11.7% | 7.6% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | -3.1 | 3.84 | 5.88 | 2.56 | 0.91 | 3.8 | 3.59 | STL | 92 | 102 | 127 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 21.3% | 15.3% | 9.9% |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | -5.1 | 4.41 | 5.88 | 1.2 | 0.91 | 5.31 | 3.27 | ANA | 103 | 98 | 133 | 17.5% | 7.4% | 22.2% | 8.7% | 16.8% |
| Christian Bergman | COL | -4.3 | 4.48 | 5.18 | 0.93 | 1.09 | 4.65 | 4.61 | ARI | 96 | 95 | 74 | 17.3% | 5.7% | 22.1% | 12.4% | 8.3% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 1.7 | 2.2 | 7.19 | 1.79 | 0.87 | 2.43 | 2.95 | SFO | 113 | 105 | 124 | 24.9% | 6.7% | 22.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 1.5 | 4.74 | 6.01 | 1.43 | 0.94 | 4.94 | 4.63 | MIN | 80 | 89 | 101 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 21.2% | 10.3% | 14.0% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 4.7 | 3.38 | 6.7 | 1.51 | 1.08 | 3.14 | 3.49 | DET | 104 | 121 | 115 | 22.1% | 7.2% | 23.5% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 4.3 | 4.08 | 5.83 | 0.83 | 1.02 | 4.18 | 5.19 | CIN | 97 | 90 | 70 | 19.2% | 5.1% | 21.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 3.7 | 4.53 | 4.68 | 0.86 | 1.08 | 4.58 | 2.24 | TEX | 104 | 93 | 120 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 16.7% | 12.5% | 11.1% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | -4.4 | 4.57 | 5.48 | 1.66 | 1.01 | 4.61 | 3.33 | NYM | 99 | 99 | 131 | 17.7% | 7.0% | 23.2% | 15.9% | 12.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | -7 | 3.63 | 6.65 | 1.28 | 1.08 | 3.6 | 4.63 | KAN | 93 | 101 | 80 | 19.8% | 6.0% | 20.3% | 8.7% | 11.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 6.9 | 3.41 | 6.94 | 1.24 | 1.08 | 3.74 | 4.33 | CHW | 86 | 91 | 54 | 20.5% | 6.4% | 22.4% | 9.1% | 11.9% |
| Jorge Lopez | MIL | -5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0.84 | SDG | 99 | 91 | 79 | ||||||||
| Josh Smith | CIN | 1.6 | 5.4 | 4.22 | 1.12 | 1.02 | 5.26 | 4 | CHC | 94 | 97 | 46 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 24.0% | 12.5% | 6.5% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3 | 4.19 | 5.94 | 2.03 | 0.94 | 4.18 | 3.97 | CLE | 110 | 98 | 80 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 19.9% | 13.8% | 13.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 4.3 | 3 | 6.72 | 1.21 | 0.87 | 2.83 | 3.68 | LOS | 101 | 109 | 87 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 20.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.2 | 3.26 | 6.05 | 2.06 | 1.04 | 3.82 | 3.43 | BAL | 105 | 101 | 34 | 19.7% | 6.4% | 20.7% | 8.9% | 7.7% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 6.4 | 4.69 | 5.01 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 4.68 | 2.46 | FLA | 89 | 100 | 132 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 23.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 0.2 | 5 | 5.36 | 0.77 | 0.98 | 5.41 | 4.48 | WAS | 96 | 96 | 79 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 21.1% | 11.1% | 10.4% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | -5.4 | 3.21 | 5.98 | 1.34 | 1.02 | 3.26 | 3.34 | BOS | 87 | 98 | 83 | 21.4% | 5.5% | 23.3% | 11.0% | 8.4% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.3 | 3.91 | 5.92 | 1.31 | 0.91 | 3.82 | 4.89 | PIT | 103 | 100 | 102 | 20.3% | 9.2% | 24.2% | 18.6% | 7.5% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 6.2 | 4.44 | 5.84 | 1 | 1.04 | 4.47 | TOR | 106 | 114 | 147 | ||||||
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.5 | 3.63 | 6. | 0.84 | 0.85 | 3.93 | 4.67 | SEA | 104 | 100 | 95 | 22.3% | 8.0% | 21.2% | 13.3% | 9.0% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 2.9 | 4.45 | 5.12 | 0.89 | 0.91 | 4.2 | 4.38 | OAK | 93 | 97 | 107 | 18.5% | 8.1% | 19.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | -1.7 | 3.84 | 6.3 | 1.55 | 1.02 | 3.86 | 3.27 | NYY | 104 | 102 | 97 | 18.9% | 7.1% | 22.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.8 | 4.25 | 5.3 | 1.13 | 1.09 | 4.5 | 3.6 | COL | 74 | 64 | 119 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 20.9% | 12.9% | 10.2% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -4.5 | 4.05 | 6.15 | 1.28 | 0.98 | 3.93 | 4.83 | ATL | 86 | 87 | 122 | 15.3% | 6.9% | 22.2% | 11.9% | 8.2% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | -6.8 | 3.25 | 6.11 | 2.88 | 0.84 | 2.88 | 2.11 | MIL | 85 | 90 | 56 | 26.7% | 8.0% | 18.9% | 8.0% | 11.5% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | -4.8 | 3.87 | 5.48 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 4.12 | 4.56 | HOU | 93 | 105 | 130 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 20.3% | 14.5% | 7.3% |
Adam Conley is coming off back to back strong starts and has been about league average through nine starts, featuring some better than average numbers underneath the 3.93 ERA, including a 14.7 K-BB% and 2.5 Hard-Soft%. He’s struck out at least six in five of his last seven starts. Tampa Bay is a tough offense vs LHP (12.2 HR/FB), but have a 16.0 K-BB% at home and 14.9 K-BB% vs LHP too. They park adjust down to a neutral matchup.
Charlie Morton has allowed six runs in fewer than five innings in each of his last two starts, the most recent of which was in Colorado. He has just a 10.0 K-BB%, but generates a lot of ground balls (57.4%), though he allows average contact authority (8.4 Hard-Soft%). A 15.3 HR/FB is more manageable with such a high ground ball rate. The Cardinals are below average on the road, but much better vs RHP than LHP (14.0 Hard-Soft%). They have been hitting the ball well over the last week (16.7 HR/FB), but are a slightly favorable matchup after an adjustment for the negative run environment.
Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in not only the National League, but baseball this year no matter what ex-players on TV try to tell you about Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta. He leads the majors with a 33.1 K% (with only one other player over 30%) and a 28.3 K-BB% by a full percentage point. He has the lowest SIERA, xFIP, and FIP in baseball by a quarter of a run or more. His 15.8 SwStr% is tied with 2004 Johan Santana for the 2nd best mark of the pitchf/x era behind 2002 Randy Johnson (16.4%). The Giants are one of the best home offenses in baseball, but with little power (7.7 HR/FB) and are less potent, but still above average vs LHP. The park penalty is sever enough to make them a neutral opponent tonight.
Cole Hamels is a pitcher who almost always gets a full write-up, but someone regular readers might know I often hesitate to endorse at a normally high cost. The reason is inconsistency. He goes through streaks and ups and downs where strikeouts, walks, and HRs are all over the place, though the general package (17.2 K-BB%) often paints the picture of a very good, but not elite pitcher. He’s had 10 starts as a Ranger and allowed at least three ERs in six of them. He’s allowed just two HRs since allowing five in his first two starts, but has walked at least three on three occasions, and has struck out fewer than five in three of his last four starts. One thing he has done is go at least six innings in every start since the trade. Detroit hammers LHP (2nd best) and has a 17.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week. They are one of the worst park adjusted matchups tonight.
Johnny Cueto has followed up five straight starts with at least four ERs with two seven inning outings and a total of five ERs in his last two. He’s only struck out nine of 57 batters and we’re not going to say he’s back yet, but it’s a start and for once his ERA sits right in line with at least his FIP. His estimators say he’s a slightly above average pitcher and that’s the way it’s worked out this year in a strange way. The White Sox are one of the worst home offenses in baseball and below average vs RHP as well. They are also one of the coldest offenses in baseball and remain a favorable matchup even in one of the most positive run environments in play today.
Jorge Lopez has some prospect buzz as a 2nd round pick out of high school in 2001, who upped his K% to 24.0% at AA this season after a 20.4 K% at high A last season. Control can be an issue, as it is with most young players, but he’s in a great spot to make his debut tonight. The Padres are about average at home, but with a 15.3 K-BB%. They struggle with RHP (14.8 K-BB%) and are a great matchup in Petco.
Madison Bumgarner is about to put the finishing touches on a great season in which he set a career high 22.5 K-BB% and has at least seven strikeouts in 16 of his last 20 starts. He has a similar 22.6 K-BB% and 7.9 HR/FB at home since last season. He has only allowed more than two runs twice in his last 15 home starts and never more than three since his first home start of the season. The Dodgers are an above average offense who hit LHP well. One of the toughest run environments in baseball make them a fairly favorable opponent.
Marcus Stroman has improved in each start since returning from a major injury and threw seven shutout innings with five strikeouts in his last one. His 13.7 K% is still lacking, but also growing by the start and he’s had a SwStr above 8% in each of his last two starts. While he gets back on track with the strikeouts, he’s done a great job managing contact (-3.4 Hard-Soft%) and generating ground balls (60.3%). Baltimore is a tough home team with a lot of power (16.0 HR/FB at home, 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but have a 14.7 K-BB% vs RHP and are the coldest bats in the majors over the last week (0.0 Hard-Soft%, 7.0 HR/FB) making them about a neutral matchup in a positive run environment.
Matt Moore has struck out 16 of his last 50 batters, allowing a total of two ERs over his last 13.2 innings against tough AL East offenses. This is after failing to strike out more than four in any of his first eight starts. It’s easy to forget that he was talked about as a top prospect in the same breath as Trout and Harper when he came up just a few years ago due to all of his issues over the past few seasons. If he’s going to generate strikeouts as he has in the last two starts, which he has the talent to do, he’ll once again be a pitcher to reckon with. We’re not going to go overboard concerning such a small sample, but the Marlins are a well below average road offense (14.2 K-BB%) and though they have been one of the hotter offenses over the last week (4.4 K-BB%) they are no more than a neutral matchup in a negative run environment.
Michael Pineda has had a very up and down season, but has allowed just a single run with 10 strikeouts over his last 11.1 innings. He’s failed to go more than six innings in any of his last eight starts though. His 20.1 K-BB% with immaculate control (3.4%) ranks him among the elite in that measure, but he has at times struggled with hard contact and HRs at home (17.7 HR/FB). The Red Sox have just a 17.6 K% vs RHP, but really struggle on the road and are a favorable matchup in a near neutral overall run environment.
Mike Fiers has dropped his BABIP by over 50 points in just eight starts in Houston and while some of that is out of his control, a good chunk of it has been completely turning around the sheer volume of hard contact he was giving up. He has just a 4.5 Hard-Soft% since the trade, while it was near 20% at times prior to that. That’s not to say he can sustain a .211 BABIP, but there’s been definite improvement to go along with his 14.0 K-BB% since the start of August. Seattle is not the best team for a pitcher who has had issues with hard contact to face (15.4 Hard-Soft%, 13.0 HR/FB vs RHP), but they do have a 23.2 K% at home and it’s a great park to pitch in, turning an average offense into a very favorable matchup.
Nicholas Tropeano has a fairly average 13.1 K-BB% and 10.9 Hard-Soft% through six starts. He has an ERA over four mostly due to BABIP and strand rate issues, though allowing just a single HR so far has gone a long way in balancing things out. Although he hasn’t pitched that poorly, he’s failed to exceed five innings in any of his last four starts, though he did throw 97 pitches in his most recent, so it’s difficult to tell if he’s under some kind of limit. Oakland neither strike out much, nor hits the ball very hard (5.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). They are a slightly below average road offense and a favorable opponent in a negative run environment.
Rick Porcello has been very inconsistent over the last month, but does have at least eight strikeouts in three of his five starts, though just four in each of the other two. His 14.5 K-BB% is actually a career high as he’s transitioned from a high ground ball rate to a league average strikeout rate this year. Unfortunately, his 32.1% rate of hard contact is also a career high. The Yankees are really more average overall at home vs RHP than many people realize, but while the park does play almost neutral for run environment, it does enhance RH power. They have a 13.8 HR/FB vs RHP and 13.7 HR/FB at home, while he has a 16.3 HR/FB vs LHBs and 17.3 HR/FB on the road, so you can see where there may be problems tonight despite a matchup that seems only slightly unfavorable when all the numbers are considered.
Robbie Ray usually finds himself in the pay no mind section due to the great amount of hard contact he allows (20.8 Hard-Soft%), which he’s somehow turned into a 7.0 HR/FB pitching in a tough park most of the time. His 12.5 K-BB% is about average though and even in a difficult run environment, we have to put any LHP against Colorado into consideration. They are incredibly bad (by far the worst) both on the road (18.3 K-BB%) and vs LHP (15.4 K-BB%, 8.0 HR/FB). Arizona is a tough park, but it’s not Colorado and the Rockies remain a great matchup even in a greatly positive run environment.
Tanner Roark has had very few successful starts this season and a very poor September exclusively as a starter with just a 5.0 SwStr% and 9.3 K%. Clearly, the only reason to even consider him is the strength of a matchup with the Braves. They have just a 17.6 K% vs RHP, so there is really a very low ceiling here, but the one thing he has done this season is manage contact well (5.4 Hard-Soft%) and the Braves do not hit the ball hard (7.5 HR/FB both at home and vs RHP, 4.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). Despite hitting well over the last week, they are a favorable matchup in a nearly neutral run environment.
Tyson Ross completely dominates RHBs with a high strikeout rate and is one of just three qualified pitchers with a GB rate above 60% (61.7%). He also has just a 3.6 Hard-Soft% and has struck out 20 of his last 48 batters. Lefties, he has more of an issue with, though that’s due mostly to a high walk rate with a fairly average K-BB% and HR/FB against them. He has an 18.0 K-BB% and 6.7 HR/FB at home since last year and Milwaukee would seem a great matchup in the way you traditionally think about them, stacked with RH power. They aren’t that anymore, but haven’t exactly replaced their missing RH bats with anything better and still serve as potentiall the top park adjusted matchup of the night with a 15.2 K-BB% on the road.
Vidal Nuno has allowed nine ERs with four walks and seven strikeouts over his last 7.2 IP. He struck out 10 of 26 batters in seven shutout innings in his previous start though. He’s capable of both missing some bats and turning his start into a complete disaster. Houston is capable of assisting him in either direction, though he’s been very good at home (18.9 K-BB%, 3.06 FIP). The Astros are a favorable matchup due to the extreme park, but have a 14.3 HR/FB vs LHP with a 21.4 K% that isn’t as far above league average as we’ve come to expect from this offense.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Dan Haren (.262 BABIP – 79.6 LOB% – 11.7 HR/FB) – He has never stranded more than 75.9% of runners, though he does have some experience with BABIPs in the .270 to .290 range, but never this low. His 11.9 K-BB% is a career worst for a full season.
Cody Anderson (.248 BABIP – 76.7 LOB% – 10.2 HR/FB) – He does have two things in his favor that might suggest he’s better than his estimators, which you can find a few charts down below. One is a 7.9 SwStr% that is still below average, but doesn’t match up with a 12.4 K%. Second is he’s been able to induce a decent amount of weak contact (7.6 Hard-Soft%), but neither of those things can bring his estimators even halfway to his ERA.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jeff Samardzija threw a one hit shutout with six strikeouts and no walks at Detroit in his last start. He has now allowed 10 ERs over his last 12 innings pitched. He hasn’t allowed fewer than four ERs in consecutive starts in since before the break and although his estimators are almost a run better than his ERA, they still aren’t good.
Daniel Norris has pitched well in two starts back after injury, but seems to be on a pitch count, throwing a combined 100 pitches, 63 in his last outing.
Bartolo Colon has failed to strike out more than two in any of his last four starts and eight of his last 12. He has just a 6.5 K% and 5.0 SwStr% in September.
Kyle Gibson a 9.2 K-BB% that just about matches that of the offense he faces, who knocked him out in the 3rd inning of his last start. I’m still optimistic about his SwStr% potentially suggesting a league average K% and he’s made some steps forward this year, but we’ll probably have to wait until next year to see more.
Michael Wacha has walked at least three in each of his last four starts, with at least three ERs in three of them, allowing five HRs. He’s been pretty terrible by any measure in September.
Miguel Gonzalez combines lots of fly balls with a below average strikeout rate in a tough park against Toronto.
Chris Bassitt hasn’t lasted five innings in either of his last two starts, walking more than he’s struck out.
David Buchanan has only struck out more than four once with a high of five two starts back and had allowed at least three ERs in 10 of 11 starts before allowing a total of three over his last two. He has a 21.0 Hard-Soft% and has allowed 10 HRs in 63.1 innings.
Christian Bergman allowed seven runs in 3.2 innings in his first start since April. He’s struggled out of the bullpen this season and though he gets out of Colorado tonight, it’s not like Arizona is a good place to pitch.
Matthew Wisler
Josh Smith
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 22.5% | 7.8% | Road | 23.3% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 31.1% | 2.2% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 17.5% | 3.3% | Road | 15.2% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 4.2% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 18.1% | 8.2% | Home | 17.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 6.4% |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 17.3% | 8.2% | Road | 12.6% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Christian Bergman | Rockies | 13.0% | 4.6% | Road | 12.9% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 2.8% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 32.6% | 4.5% | Road | 30.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 6.7% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 12.4% | 5.9% | Home | 13.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 8.6% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 24.1% | 7.1% | Home | 24.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 4.8% |
| Dan Haren | Cubs | 17.9% | 4.9% | Road | 18.8% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 18.3% | 8.8% | Road | 19.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 0.0% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 13.0% | 7.2% | Home | 12.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 4.7% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.5% | 5.2% | Home | 21.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 5.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 23.2% | 5.9% | Road | 20.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Jorge Lopez | Brewers | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Josh Smith | Reds | 16.5% | 13.9% | Home | 17.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 15.6% | 7.7% | Road | 15.2% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 26.0% | 4.7% | Home | 28.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 10.3% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 19.9% | 5.3% | Road | 17.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 3.9% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | 16.6% | 8.8% | Home | 18.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 4.0% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 15.4% | 8.8% | Home | 14.1% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 5.4% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 22.5% | 3.1% | Home | 22.8% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 2.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 20.4% | 7.3% | Road | 21.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 14.9% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 17.0% | 7.8% | Home | 16.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Mike Fiers | Astros | 24.6% | 7.9% | Road | 24.6% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 7.7% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | 17.5% | 7.9% | Home | 18.6% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 17.5% | 5.1% | Road | 16.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 20.0% | 9.0% | Home | 18.4% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 11.1% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 16.1% | 5.1% | Road | 16.7% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 4.6% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 24.9% | 9.4% | Home | 26.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 10.4% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 19.9% | 6.6% | Home | 19.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 9.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Home | 23.0% | 7.3% | LH | 22.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 3.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.8% | 6.6% | RH | 20.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.2% | 7.9% | RH | 19.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 9.4% |
| Angels | Home | 19.8% | 7.4% | RH | 19.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.5% | 8.1% | RH | 20.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.1% |
| Giants | Home | 18.5% | 7.8% | LH | 18.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.2% |
| Twins | Road | 22.8% | 7.1% | RH | 21.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.7% | 7.3% | LH | 21.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.9% |
| Reds | Home | 19.7% | 8.7% | RH | 19.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 28.1% | 3.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.5% | 8.6% | LH | 22.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.2% | 8.4% |
| Mets | Road | 21.1% | 7.5% | RH | 19.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.2% |
| Royals | Road | 17.2% | 5.7% | RH | 16.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 25.7% | 7.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.0% | 7.2% | RH | 20.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.0% | 6.7% |
| Padres | Home | 22.3% | 7.0% | RH | 21.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.9% | 11.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.8% | 8.3% | RH | 24.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.9% |
| Indians | Home | 18.6% | 9.3% | RH | 18.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.7% | 10.0% | LH | 20.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.9% | 7.0% | RH | 21.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.0% | 5.8% | LH | 20.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 11.0% | 6.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.3% | 8.5% | RH | 21.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.2% | 7.6% | RH | 17.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.9% | 7.6% | RH | 20.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.6% | 10.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.8% | 8.5% | RH | 18.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.9% | 11.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.2% | 8.1% | RH | 21.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.5% | 7.8% | RH | 18.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 15.0% | 9.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.0% | 8.6% | RH | 19.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.3% | 6.0% | LH | 22.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 5.6% |
| Braves | Home | 18.3% | 8.7% | RH | 17.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 11.7% | 10.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.3% | 6.1% | RH | 20.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.5% |
| Astros | Road | 22.2% | 7.4% | LH | 21.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.6% | 10.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 19.0% | 9.8% | 21.3% | Road | 23.6% | 11.1% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 21.3% | 9.9% | 7.6% | Road | 22.6% | 9.8% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 21.2% | 11.6% | 9.5% | Home | 22.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 23.0% | 4.5% | 15.3% | Road | 24.4% | 6.7% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Christian Bergman | Rockies | 23.8% | 10.6% | 7.5% | Road | 25.0% | 8.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 20.5% | 8.5% | 11.7% | Road | 19.6% | 8.0% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 21.0% | 10.2% | 13.6% | Home | 15.7% | 10.6% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 12.5% | 18.8% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 21.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | Home | 24.2% | 14.7% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 18.3% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Dan Haren | Cubs | 19.9% | 11.6% | 10.6% | Road | 20.4% | 14.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 17.4% | 11.4% | 11.4% | Road | 17.4% | 13.5% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 21.6% | 12.2% | 13.9% | Home | 19.8% | 12.8% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.4% | 10.5% | 10.7% | Home | 21.0% | 12.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 4.8% | 19.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 20.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | Road | 21.7% | 8.3% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Jorge Lopez | Brewers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| Josh Smith | Reds | 27.6% | 15.4% | 3.8% | Home | 25.6% | 14.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 19.4% | 9.7% | 11.4% | Road | 17.0% | 9.3% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 21.6% | 9.5% | 11.7% | Home | 24.0% | 7.9% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | 18.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | Road | 21.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | 23.3% | 11.0% | 11.0% | Home | 19.2% | 14.9% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 24.7% | 11.5% | 12.2% | Home | 20.4% | 6.3% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 21.2% | 10.7% | 10.3% | Home | 20.7% | 13.3% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 22.1% | 8.3% | 10.1% | Road | 22.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 22.6% | 13.6% | 11.6% | Home | 21.4% | 14.1% | 11.9% | L14 Days | |||
| Mike Fiers | Astros | 20.0% | 10.4% | 13.1% | Road | 17.9% | 7.1% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | 18.3% | 1.4% | 5.6% | Home | 19.5% | 0.0% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 21.8% | 11.9% | 8.2% | Road | 21.9% | 11.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 21.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | Home | 22.4% | 9.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 21.1% | 9.4% | 10.6% | Road | 21.3% | 9.4% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 20.0% | 9.9% | 8.9% | Home | 17.7% | 6.7% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 18.1% | 12.5% | 8.5% | Home | 17.8% | 12.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Home | 21.2% | 10.6% | 9.7% | LH | 20.4% | 12.2% | 11.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 13.8% | 15.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.6% | 10.8% | 8.7% | RH | 22.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.5% | 16.7% | 14.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 11.9% | 10.3% | RH | 22.1% | 9.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Angels | Home | 20.4% | 12.1% | 9.7% | RH | 20.1% | 12.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.0% | 17.0% | 3.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.8% | 10.6% | 7.8% | RH | 21.4% | 11.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 17.0% | 3.8% |
| Giants | Home | 20.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | LH | 21.3% | 8.8% | 5.3% | L7Days | 22.8% | 13.6% | 6.8% |
| Twins | Road | 19.6% | 9.2% | 11.2% | RH | 20.9% | 10.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 26.6% | 9.2% | 13.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.9% | 11.1% | 7.4% | LH | 24.6% | 12.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 29.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Reds | Home | 22.7% | 11.8% | 8.6% | RH | 20.7% | 10.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.7% | 12.3% | 8.9% | LH | 18.5% | 12.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 16.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% |
| Mets | Road | 22.5% | 11.4% | 9.6% | RH | 22.2% | 11.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 25.6% | 14.7% | 7.4% |
| Royals | Road | 22.5% | 9.5% | 10.3% | RH | 21.2% | 9.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.2% | 5.5% | 10.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | RH | 21.4% | 11.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 26.5% | 13.2% | 7.9% |
| Padres | Home | 20.9% | 11.2% | 8.0% | RH | 19.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.8% | 5.6% | 13.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.9% | 10.9% | 7.7% | RH | 20.4% | 13.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.9% | 11.1% |
| Indians | Home | 22.8% | 8.8% | 11.5% | RH | 21.2% | 9.9% | 12.6% | L7Days | 17.6% | 11.6% | 13.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.5% | 12.6% | 10.7% | LH | 22.0% | 11.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.0% | 11.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.3% | 16.0% | 8.3% | RH | 20.5% | 15.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 15.8% | 7.0% | 14.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.5% | 11.7% | 8.1% | LH | 21.1% | 12.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 23.6% | 12.7% | 1.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.1% | 13.8% | 9.0% | RH | 20.7% | 13.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.5% | 7.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.7% | 10.1% | 11.2% | RH | 20.4% | 10.5% | 10.0% | L7Days | 19.4% | 11.1% | 8.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 22.0% | 11.4% | 5.3% | RH | 21.4% | 10.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.1% | 12.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.8% | 14.1% | 13.7% | RH | 19.9% | 15.2% | 12.8% | L7Days | 24.7% | 20.3% | 17.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.1% | 12.7% | 8.9% | RH | 20.2% | 13.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.2% | 17.5% | 12.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.6% | 11.3% | 9.0% | RH | 20.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 12.3% | 7.2% | 12.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.9% | 13.7% | 13.1% | RH | 20.9% | 13.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.6% | 5.3% | 17.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 19.8% | 12.2% | 11.0% | LH | 21.7% | 8.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.3% | 19.6% | 8.7% |
| Braves | Home | 21.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | RH | 22.1% | 7.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.9% | 12.8% | 6.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.9% | 10.2% | 9.0% | RH | 21.1% | 11.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.5% | 10.0% | 5.0% |
| Astros | Road | 21.4% | 11.5% | 10.4% | LH | 19.9% | 14.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.9% | 22.0% | 6.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 22.5% | 9.5% | 2.37 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 2.54 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 16.7% | 6.5% | 2.57 | 12.9% | 6.4% | 2.02 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 17.2% | 7.8% | 2.21 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 2.10 |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | 18.1% | 8.5% | 2.13 | 17.7% | 9.6% | 1.84 |
| Christian Bergman | COL | 13.6% | 7.0% | 1.94 | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.78 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 33.1% | 15.8% | 2.09 | 33.3% | 17.2% | 1.94 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 12.4% | 7.9% | 1.57 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 1.96 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 24.3% | 13.1% | 1.85 | 20.4% | 10.9% | 1.87 |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 17.1% | 6.3% | 2.71 | 18.3% | 8.0% | 2.29 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 19.0% | 9.6% | 1.98 | 29.6% | 9.1% | 3.25 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 11.3% | 6.4% | 1.77 | 12.3% | 5.6% | 2.20 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 18.1% | 9.8% | 1.85 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 2.17 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 20.8% | 10.2% | 2.04 | 13.6% | 9.6% | 1.42 |
| Jorge Lopez | MIL | ||||||
| Josh Smith | CIN | 16.5% | 8.0% | 2.06 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 2.17 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 17.1% | 9.7% | 1.76 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 1.76 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 27.0% | 12.6% | 2.14 | 25.2% | 12.4% | 2.03 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 13.7% | 7.8% | 1.76 | 13.7% | 7.8% | 1.76 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 17.2% | 10.8% | 1.59 | 23.2% | 13.2% | 1.76 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 15.4% | 8.2% | 1.88 | 18.3% | 9.5% | 1.93 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 23.5% | 12.1% | 1.94 | 23.1% | 12.1% | 1.91 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 20.1% | 9.6% | 2.09 | 16.1% | 6.8% | 2.37 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 17.6% | 9.0% | 1.96 | 11.5% | 8.7% | 1.32 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 23.4% | 9.6% | 2.44 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.93 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 19.7% | 10.6% | 1.86 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 2.11 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 19.9% | 8.4% | 2.37 | 25.2% | 8.3% | 3.04 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 21.7% | 8.9% | 2.44 | 25.7% | 11.1% | 2.32 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 14.3% | 7.0% | 2.04 | 9.3% | 5.0% | 1.86 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 25.7% | 12.2% | 2.11 | 28.6% | 10.9% | 2.62 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 21.8% | 10.9% | 2.00 | 19.2% | 10.7% | 1.79 |
Clayton Kershaw has a 17.2 SwStr% over the last month. That is the same as “(player-popup)Charlie Morton”:/players/charlie-morton-10985’s K% for the season. In fact, that would rank higher than the K% of 10 pitchers today.
Johnny Cueto – His SwStr% for September has been inconsistent and may be a bit misleading. Twice he was at exactly 8%, twice he was above 13%, but in his last start he had a 5.8 SwStr%. Still, it suggests a much higher K% than his rate for the month in four of his five starts.
Matt Moore has a SwStr above 16% in each of his last two starts.
Michael Pineda had a .330 BABIP with nearly average indicators and a 22.4 LD%, but has been hampered by his defense at times. The 14.5 HR/FB, which is actually normal on the road and nearly double at home, is just going to be a product of Yankee Stadium for some pitchers (14 of 19 HRs at home).
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 3.93 | 3.82 | -0.11 | 3.99 | 0.06 | 3.77 | -0.16 | 2.42 | 3.34 | 0.92 | 3.64 | 1.22 | 2.57 | 0.15 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 4.15 | 4.05 | -0.1 | 3.98 | -0.17 | 3.85 | -0.3 | 1.96 | 4.22 | 2.26 | 3.82 | 1.86 | 3.2 | 1.24 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 4.54 | 3.87 | -0.67 | 3.82 | -0.72 | 4.16 | -0.38 | 5.81 | 4.05 | -1.76 | 3.87 | -1.94 | 4.78 | -1.03 |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | 3.07 | 4.3 | 1.23 | 4.48 | 1.41 | 3.8 | 0.73 | 9 | 3.27 | -5.73 | 3.13 | -5.87 | 2.15 | -6.85 |
| Christian Bergman | COL | 4.62 | 4.36 | -0.26 | 4.5 | -0.12 | 4.39 | -0.23 | 6 | 4.92 | -1.08 | 4.95 | -1.05 | 4.9 | -1.1 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.25 | 2.31 | 0.06 | 2.17 | -0.08 | 2.11 | -0.14 | 2.31 | 2.51 | 0.2 | 2.36 | 0.05 | 2 | -0.31 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 3.31 | 4.74 | 1.43 | 4.44 | 1.13 | 4.29 | 0.98 | 1.69 | 4.71 | 3.02 | 4.39 | 2.7 | 3.77 | 2.08 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.56 | 3.48 | -0.08 | 3.41 | -0.15 | 3.39 | -0.17 | 2.91 | 3.52 | 0.61 | 3.49 | 0.58 | 2.91 | 0 |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 3.83 | 4.53 | 0.7 | 4.76 | 0.93 | 4.83 | 1 | 3.26 | 4.82 | 1.56 | 5.13 | 1.87 | 4.03 | 0.77 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 3.88 | 4.36 | 0.48 | 4.58 | 0.7 | 4.59 | 0.71 | 1.04 | 2.24 | 1.2 | 2.49 | 1.45 | 2.8 | 1.76 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 7.96 | 5.17 | -2.79 | 4.99 | -2.97 | 5.5 | -2.46 | 4.4 | 4.44 | 0.04 | 4.21 | -0.19 | 6.01 | 1.61 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 5.04 | 4.18 | -0.86 | 4.31 | -0.73 | 4.18 | -0.86 | 6.75 | 4.58 | -2.17 | 4.89 | -1.86 | 4.75 | -2 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 3.45 | 3.74 | 0.29 | 3.75 | 0.3 | 3.47 | 0.02 | 6.44 | 4.55 | -1.89 | 4.5 | -1.94 | 4.41 | -2.03 |
| Jorge Lopez | MIL | ||||||||||||||
| Josh Smith | CIN | 7.23 | 5.4 | -1.83 | 5.7 | -1.53 | 6.27 | -0.96 | 7.15 | 3.73 | -3.42 | 3.56 | -3.59 | 4.29 | -2.86 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3.96 | 4.19 | 0.23 | 4.02 | 0.06 | 4.06 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 3.73 | -0.97 | 3.75 | -0.95 | 3.25 | -1.45 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.88 | 3.01 | 0.13 | 3.01 | 0.13 | 2.74 | -0.14 | 2.43 | 3.33 | 0.9 | 3.29 | 0.86 | 2.55 | 0.12 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 1.89 | 3.77 | 1.88 | 3.74 | 1.85 | 3.57 | 1.68 | 1.89 | 3.77 | 1.88 | 3.74 | 1.85 | 3.57 | 1.68 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 6.48 | 4.61 | -1.87 | 4.89 | -1.59 | 4.99 | -1.49 | 3.86 | 3.59 | -0.27 | 3.81 | -0.05 | 4.26 | 0.4 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | 5.15 | -0.25 | 5.16 | -0.24 | 5.34 | 5.05 | -0.29 | 5.57 | 0.23 | 4.51 | -0.83 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.99 | 3.11 | -0.88 | 2.96 | -1.03 | 3.31 | -0.68 | 3.14 | 3.43 | 0.29 | 3.28 | 0.14 | 4.16 | 1.02 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 3.15 | 4 | 0.85 | 3.86 | 0.71 | 3.71 | 0.56 | 6.75 | 5.43 | -1.32 | 4.93 | -1.82 | 7.15 | 0.4 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 4.85 | 4.48 | -0.37 | 4.45 | -0.4 | 5.05 | 0.2 | 6.75 | 5.07 | -1.68 | 5.1 | -1.65 | 3.71 | -3.04 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 3.66 | 3.9 | 0.24 | 4.09 | 0.43 | 4.06 | 0.4 | 3.82 | 4.36 | 0.54 | 4.68 | 0.86 | 5.53 | 1.71 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 4.35 | 4.12 | -0.23 | 4.18 | -0.17 | 2.7 | -1.65 | 3.07 | 4.14 | 1.07 | 4.34 | 1.27 | 3.22 | 0.15 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.04 | 3.82 | -1.22 | 3.82 | -1.22 | 4.29 | -0.75 | 3.57 | 3.1 | -0.47 | 2.95 | -0.62 | 3.37 | -0.2 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.53 | 4.12 | 0.59 | 4.11 | 0.58 | 3.55 | 0.02 | 2.39 | 3.9 | 1.51 | 3.72 | 1.33 | 3.87 | 1.48 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 4.76 | 4.24 | -0.52 | 4.21 | -0.55 | 4.73 | -0.03 | 5.68 | 5.33 | -0.35 | 5.2 | -0.48 | 5.62 | -0.06 |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 3.17 | 3.35 | 0.18 | 3.14 | -0.03 | 2.94 | -0.23 | 1.97 | 2.93 | 0.96 | 2.99 | 1.02 | 3.15 | 1.18 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 3.69 | 3.64 | -0.05 | 4.08 | 0.39 | 4.47 | 0.78 | 5.82 | 4.24 | -1.58 | 4.69 | -1.13 | 5.46 | -0.36 |
Adam Conley has a 19.6 K-BB% in the month of September (four starts), allowing just one HR.
Charlie Morton – The biggest difference between the last month and the rest of his season is that he’s allowed four of his 13 HRs over his last three starts, two of them in Colorado last time out. His estimators are otherwise very similar to his season rates with a SIERA and xFIP below four with a normalized HR rate.
Marcus Stroman has an adjustment coming to both his BABIP (.246) and LOB (86%) after three games, but has still pitched well with the estimators not entirely accounting for how many weak ground balls he’s generated.
Matt Moore has a .348 BABIP and 63.7 LOB% and has allowed a lot of hard contact (15.6 Hard-Soft%) on a 40% fly ball rate, but has otherwise average indicators in the BABIP chart below and is starting to come around as we can see in his numbers for the last month.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.292 | 0.314 | 0.022 | 21.3% | 86.1% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.289 | 0.305 | 0.016 | 7.0% | 89.6% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 0.303 | 0.305 | 0.002 | 9.4% | 91.9% |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | 0.289 | 0.273 | -0.016 | 13.9% | 85.4% |
| Christian Bergman | COL | 0.319 | 0.321 | 0.002 | 9.3% | 88.9% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.299 | 0.287 | -0.012 | 9.9% | 78.0% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.291 | 0.248 | -0.043 | 13.6% | 89.7% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.294 | 0.300 | 0.006 | 12.3% | 84.3% |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 0.290 | 0.262 | -0.028 | 10.6% | 91.8% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.300 | 0.257 | -0.043 | 12.9% | 88.5% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 0.316 | 0.380 | 0.064 | 13.6% | 92.2% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 0.312 | 0.304 | -0.008 | 10.6% | 87.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 0.285 | 0.277 | -0.008 | 12.1% | 86.4% |
| Jorge Lopez | MIL | 0.303 | ||||
| Josh Smith | CIN | 0.295 | 0.347 | 0.052 | 3.8% | 86.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.300 | 0.286 | -0.014 | 9.1% | 89.3% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.285 | 0.286 | 0.001 | 12.6% | 86.5% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.279 | 0.246 | -0.033 | 0.0% | 88.5% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.282 | 0.348 | 0.066 | 11.9% | 86.8% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 0.308 | 0.316 | 0.008 | 12.2% | 88.5% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.299 | 0.330 | 0.031 | 9.2% | 85.0% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.296 | 0.272 | -0.024 | 11.4% | 85.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 0.296 | 0.294 | -0.002 | 9.1% | 88.4% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.283 | 0.283 | 0 | 13.1% | 85.3% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 0.285 | 0.360 | 0.075 | 7.5% | 83.4% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.304 | 0.331 | 0.027 | 5.6% | 86.9% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.292 | 0.301 | 0.009 | 6.1% | 87.1% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.303 | 0.302 | -0.001 | 6.2% | 90.9% |
| Tyson Ross | SDG | 0.301 | 0.319 | 0.018 | 9.4% | 85.8% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 0.297 | 0.295 | -0.002 | 8.5% | 85.5% |
Nicholas Tropeano – As we mentioned up top, a 2.5 HR/FB has mostly balanced a .360 BABIP and 65.0 LOB%. When concerning ourselves with just the BABIP here, there’s nothing in his batted ball or contact management profile that suggests a high BABIP and in fact, he has a great Z-Contact% so far. Expect this to drop and his ERA should probably even go with it, below four in a pitcher’s park even as he allows a few more HRs.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Note – I’m going to stretch things out a little further today because there are some pitchers I wouldn’t necessarily like to group with others that would probably end up in the same value tier if I didn’t.
Value Tier One
Adam Conley (4) – Despite a league average ERA and even estimators, he’s striking out batters at an above average rate and generating a lot of weak contact. The Rays are solid against LHP, but the negative run environment ends up cancelling much of that out. There’s reason enough to expect good things out of him for a below average cost. If you’d like me to get even bolder, I have him projected for the 4th or 5th best K% tonight, right in line with Fiers and Hamels, behind only the two elite price tags and Ross tonight.
Tyson Ross (2) combines one of the top all around profiles outside the game in San Francisco with the top matchup of the night. He’s been on fire over the last month and can be had for the same price as Cole Hamels in a much better spot. He’s my #2 projected K%, not far behind Kershaw.
Value Tier Two
Clayton Kershaw (1) – A difficult opponent is basically washed out by the extreme park effects. The only thing that holds him back is an enormous price tag. He is the best pitcher in baseball this year no matter what the baseball writers vote.
Value Tier Three
Marcus Stroman (7) doesn’t yet have the strikeout rate up to where we’d expect it, but is coming a long, a bit stronger with each start and has been great at keeping the ball on the ground and generating weak contact. That’s going to help him in Baltimore, where he faces an ice cold offense at an average cost.
Michael Pineda (5) may not be the most reliable pitcher in the world, but is plenty capable. The Red Sox may sound like a difficult matchup in Yankee Stadium and there is concern about the long ball, but they really don’t have much in terms of LH power outside of Ortiz and maybe Shaw and the overall numbers are in his favor facing a poor road team.
Madison Bumgarner (3) may end up the odd man out with Kershaw being the top pitcher and Ross with potentially a better value (and perhaps a better overall expectation with a better matchup), but nobody could argue choosing him tonight. You’ll have to pay up, but my #3 projected K% tonight is looking to put the finishing touches on perhaps his best major league season and the park can turn any matchup into a favorable one.
Value Tier Four
Charlie Morton – There is more uncertainty with the few pitchers in this tier and while part of that is reliant on his performance, that’s priced in and the Cardinals are a below average offense. It’s not an unfavorable spot and he’s likely pitched better than his ERA suggests, but the Pirates, as we saw last night, are going to pull out all stops to win this game and one of those stops might be Morton exiting early if a situation that favors that presents itself, whether it’s a particular matchup or run scoring opportunity in a close game.
Johnny Cueto (6) has looked a bit better in his most recent starts, though still not what we’re used to from him. It’s a downgrade in park, but he faces one of the worst home offenses in baseball at a near average price tag on Draftkings.
Matt Moore – We don’t want to get too crazy about two good starts with all the mediocre or bad work he’s shown us this season beyond the fact that he failed to live up to the hype in previous seasons, but he’s near the damn minimum on DraftKings against the Marlins at home, which would qualify him for the type of Dumpster Diving Special we haven’t seen much late in the year.
Jorge Lopez – You can’t expect him to transition a 24.0 K% from half a season in AA directly to the majors, especially since it’s really his first season showing this, but he does have some expectation behind him as a mid-tier prospect and finds himself in a good spot to open his career. Unfamiliarity often breeds success when facing a team that likely knows very little about him.
Value Tier Five – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Vidal Nuno has pitched very well in his home starts and carries a near minimum price tag, but faces a very dangerous offense.
Tanner Roark has no upside, but a great matchup where he should generate a ton of weak contact at a near minimum price.
Rick Porcello – The overall numbers like this a bit better for an average cost, but the short porch plays strongly against his tendencies this year.
Robbie Ray throws with his left hand and faces the Rockies. That’s enough to at least look at in any park, but he allows a lot of hard contact.
Nicholas Tropeano doesn’t have to give you much in a decent matchup to return value on a very low price tag.
Mike Fiers (9) is in a great park, but costs slightly more than the average pitcher and has really been pretty average himself. The Mariners hit the ball hard and he allowed a lot of hard contact prior to the trade.
Cole Hamels (8) – This is not to say you’re going to get what you pay for, but there’s probably equal chance of feast or famine.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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