Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, September 9th
A special bonus, your guide to pitching in September:
- Young pitchers will often have their innings or pitches capped to preserve their arms for the future. Use with caution.
- Teams out of the race at this point will often want to see what they have for next year and beyond and may pull pitchers early because they have nothing to play for. Use with caution.
- Teams that are in the hunt for the post-season are re-shuffling their rotations for key games and conserving innings. Use with caution.
- All teams will be moving guys in and out of the rotation, regularly scratching starters or pulling them early. Do not use any pitchers!
That’s basically it in a nutshell. I’ve tried my best to keep up with how all these teams are going to treat their pitchers in September, but there’s too much ever changing information. Last night, I felt Raisel Iglesias was a great play, but after a HR and some struggles with a small strike zone, he was pulled after just 61 pitches. Was that the plan to conserve his arm or was it dictated by game flow? Regardless, I don’t expect that to be something that happens outside of September, but it’s a part of baseball this month we have to accept. Hopefully, it’s something we can factor in the rest of the way, but you may know something about a team’s intended usage of a pitcher I and the rest of us don’t. Use that information to your benefit.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
Editor’s Note: Mat Latos has been scratched from tonight’s start. Joe Wieland will start for the Dodgers.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | -6.7 | 4.27 | 4.17 | 1 | 0.93 | 3.87 | 4.26 | HOU | 91 | 99 | 114 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 25.5% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | -4.9 | 5.55 | 0.17 | 1.01 | 6.73 | 5.55 | FLA | 82 | 81 | 104 | 16.4% | 6.7% | 21.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.8 | 3.42 | 5.84 | 2.08 | 0.98 | 3.49 | 3.43 | CHC | 94 | 97 | 145 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 20.9% | 11.4% | 6.6% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | -5.5 | 3.85 | 5.83 | 1.4 | 1.02 | 3.58 | BAL | 88 | 85 | 119 | ||||||
| Chris Heston | SFO | 3.5 | 4.01 | 5.89 | 2.23 | 1.09 | 4.1 | 4.33 | ARI | 95 | 95 | 91 | 17.9% | 7.2% | 21.7% | 17.7% | 9.0% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | -3.4 | 4.16 | 5.7 | 1.91 | 0.84 | 4.36 | 4.36 | SDG | 97 | 87 | 98 | 19.0% | 7.2% | 20.9% | 13.6% | 10.6% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -0.3 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 1.28 | 0.93 | 3.56 | 3.11 | OAK | 100 | 96 | 127 | 20.3% | 6.7% | 19.8% | 9.6% | 12.7% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | -3.9 | 4.56 | 5.54 | 1.59 | 1.01 | 4.54 | ATL | 78 | 85 | 62 | ||||||
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | -2 | 3.77 | 5.66 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 4.2 | 3.51 | BOS | 112 | 98 | 138 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 20.8% | 12.8% | 9.1% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 2.1 | 3.62 | 6.41 | 1.91 | 0.91 | 3.6 | 4.09 | LOS | 101 | 105 | 118 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 23.1% | 8.8% | 11.3% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | -1.1 | 4.02 | 5.69 | 1.1 | 1.02 | 4.11 | 3.4 | CIN | 98 | 95 | 98 | 19.4% | 6.9% | 22.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.1 | 3.14 | 6.44 | 1.33 | 1.03 | 3.41 | 2.77 | WAS | 103 | 97 | 145 | 23.7% | 7.5% | 21.0% | 10.8% | 8.1% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 7.1 | 3.69 | 5.69 | 0.76 | 1.05 | 4.12 | 4.1 | DET | 108 | 101 | 91 | 21.8% | 7.0% | 20.0% | 11.2% | 9.0% |
| James Shields | SDG | -7.4 | 3.55 | 6.45 | 1.31 | 0.84 | 3.55 | 5.18 | COL | 78 | 94 | 103 | 20.7% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 14.8% | 8.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | -6.3 | 3.57 | 6.65 | 1.35 | 1.08 | 3.48 | 4.64 | CLE | 88 | 98 | 75 | 20.1% | 7.7% | 19.7% | 10.8% | 11.1% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -1.6 | 4.27 | 5.56 | 1.85 | 1.07 | 4.07 | 4.54 | TOR | 104 | 111 | 120 | 17.7% | 8.9% | 21.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.6 | 3.21 | 6.59 | 1.37 | 0.98 | 3.22 | 3.64 | STL | 99 | 85 | 80 | 22.7% | 6.8% | 23.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.4 | 3.28 | 6.1 | 0.96 | 1.08 | 3.3 | 3.05 | CHW | 85 | 93 | 111 | 21.7% | 4.8% | 22.1% | 12.2% | 9.8% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -0.8 | 3.87 | 6.35 | 0.9 | 1.01 | 4.15 | 5.54 | PHI | 89 | 85 | 83 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 22.5% | 13.2% | 7.2% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 1.8 | 4.64 | 4.29 | 1.17 | 1.02 | 4.11 | 5.26 | PIT | 93 | 99 | 112 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 23.9% | 9.8% | 14.2% |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 8.9 | 3.41 | 6.57 | 1.71 | 1.04 | 3.08 | 3.45 | MIN | 78 | 87 | 74 | 21.4% | 6.1% | 17.6% | 14.0% | 9.1% |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 2.8 | 4.75 | 5.68 | 1.64 | 1.05 | 4.77 | 5.78 | TAM | 98 | 115 | 120 | 15.7% | 8.2% | 20.2% | 11.1% | 11.0% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.5 | 4.13 | 5.91 | 2.33 | 0.85 | 4.3 | 3.79 | SEA | 103 | 101 | 135 | 17.6% | 8.4% | 19.6% | 10.7% | 7.8% |
| Mat Latos | LOS | 1.4 | 4.07 | 5.86 | 1.15 | 0.91 | 3.72 | 3.92 | ANA | 101 | 99 | 102 | 19.8% | 7.3% | 22.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.39 | 1.79 | 1.04 | 4.9 | 3.92 | KAN | 109 | 103 | 132 | 13.9% | 6.5% | 23.7% | 13.6% | 6.7% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | -4.4 | 2.86 | 5.91 | 1.44 | 1.03 | 2.64 | 3.24 | NYM | 94 | 97 | 162 | 23.2% | 6.4% | 19.9% | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 2.3 | 4.42 | 5.95 | 1.16 | 1.01 | 4.02 | 4.96 | MIL | 88 | 91 | 144 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 18.7% | 11.1% | 9.4% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 5.5 | 3.98 | 5.71 | 1.45 | 1.02 | 4.25 | 6.16 | NYY | 108 | 104 | 121 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 19.2% | 13.6% | 11.5% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | -3.5 | 3.89 | 5.55 | 0.9 | 0.85 | 4.18 | 5.76 | TEX | 89 | 87 | 81 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 8.2% |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 2.4 | 4.31 | 5.3 | 1.59 | 1.09 | 2.53 | 8.72 | SFO | 101 | 108 | 113 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% |
Aaron Brooks has allowed four ERs over 20.1 innings with 16 strikeouts and just two walks over three of his five starts. In the other two, he’s allowed 14 ERs over four innings with four walks and four strikeouts. That’s tough to work with, but his 13.6 K-BB% and 10.5 Hard-Soft% show some promise. Houston has power (14.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but strikes out a ton (24.1 K% vs RHP) and is a poor road offense (22.6 K% on the road), making them a favorable park adjusted matchup.
Chris Rusin doesn’t have a very impressive 9.2 K-BB%, but does keep the ball on the ground (2.0 GB/FB) and might not be too far below league average outside of Colorado with an 8.0 Hard-Soft%. He’s already shut out this San Diego team in Colorado recently and faces them on friendlier ground this time. The Padres have been bad against LHP (23.2 K%) and have a 15.6 K-BB% at home, also striking out 25.2% over the last week. It’s one of the top matchups of the night after a downward park adjustment.
Collin McHugh has been rolling like it’s 2014 since the All-Star break, going at least six innings with two ERs or less in eight of nine starts and a nice jump in K% over the last month. He now has a 14.2 K-BB% and -5.1 Hard-Soft% in the 2nd half (whatever fangraphs deems that to be). Though Oakland may challenge his refound affinity for strikeouts, it’s the perfect park for a guy who generates 34% fly balls with a double digit IFFB% already. Oakland is not a bad offense at home and strikes out just 16.4%, but with just a 7.4 HR/FB. They have just a 5.4 vs RHP and park adjust down to a favorable matchup.
Garrett Richards allowed fewer than three ERs for the first time in eight starts last time out…..in a game where he walked five and struck out one after we extolled the virtues in a rise in his K-BB% along with continued great contact authority numbers. Now, we’re looking at an 11.0 K-BB% over the last rolling month and 10.9 K-BB% on the season, though the ability to generate weak contact has remained steady. The Dodgers are an above average offense on the road and vs RHP, but park adjust down to neutral in this spot.
J.A. Happ has allowed a total of two ERs over his last five starts and we know he’s nowhere near that good, though he certainly has been good since the trade. He sports an impressive 18.4 K-BB% over that span (though with a below average SwStr%) and a 1.2 Hard-Soft%, which might be more impressive. Despite a 14.0 HR/FB, the Reds are a below average offense vs LHP and a neutral matchup in just a slightly positive offensive run environment.
Jacob deGrom goes for the kill in Washington and while he’s been a bit flat in two of his last three starts (both on the road) at least he’s not one of the young guys nearing an imposed innings limit yet. His career 17.3 K-BB% on the road is not as good as at home, but still well above average and he’s been very effective in two starts in Washington already this year (12 IP – 4 ER – 14 K). The issue with the demoralized Washington team he faces has not been offense recently. The only offense hotter over the last week is the one they’re facing. They strike out a bit more than the average team, but with a 13.6 HR/FB at home, 13.1 HR/FB vs RHP, and 18.6 HR/FB over the last week. They are a difficult park adjusted matchup here.
James Shields has been very mediocre for the Padres this year and even worse than that with just an 8.3 K-BB% and 14.8 HR/FB over the last month. He’s walked at least four in three of his last five starts and six last time out. On the positive side, he faces possibly the worst road offense in the majors (18.0 K-BB%). They do have a 14.2 HR/FB vs RHP, but much of that is due to their home park. They are one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight.
Jeff Samardzija has had a terrible season. It may not be as bad as his ERA, but it certainly has been far from good. He’s allowed at least four ERs in eight of 10 starts since the break. If we’re looking for good news, he’s sustained a double digit SwStr% and both that and his K% have risen above average over the last month. He also has a 7.6 Hard-Soft% that’s a bit better than average. He has a decent matchup against a below average offense that ends up being neutral after the upward park bump.
Josh Tomlin started for a late scratched Cory Kluber last week and threw a shutout with six strikeouts. He’s gone at least six innings in all five of his starts this year (and over the last month) with two runs or fewer four times and an elite 22.3 K-BB%. He has an 18.6 K-BB% on the road since last season. The downside would be a 16.9 Hard-Soft% so far that’s led to a 15.9 HR/FB, similar to his 15.3 HR/FB last season. He faces a poor offense, but gets a downgrade in park, making them an overall neutral matchup here where the long ball could be an issue.
Kris Medlen disappointed everyone who used him last time out, allowing seven runs in just under six innings with only three strikeouts. A closer look, however, shows that 16 of his 23 batted balls were on the ground (69.6%) with just a 3.4 Hard-Soft%. What happened to that Kansas City defense? Through 31.1 innings he has a 15.8 K-BB% with pretty standard batted ball and contact authority rates. He has a great matchup against one of the worst road offenses in baseball (23.2 K%).
Martin Perez has an ERA of 5.07, but has only allowed more than three ERs in a single one of his nine starts this year. A 6.0 K-BB% is just about useless, but he’s generated an elite 62.1 GB% with a 2.3 Hard-Soft%. We can call him another one of our weak ground ball guys, similar in profile to Brett Anderson. Seattle has been a decent offense and not lost anything in the absence of Nelson Cruz over the last week, but the park still makes this a favorable matchup against a team with a 15.9 K-BB% vs LHP. A 14.2 HR/FB vs LHP should be muted by his strong ground ball rate.
Editor’s Note: Mat Latos has been scratched from tonight’s start. Joe Wieland will start for the Dodgers.
Mat Latos hasn’t completed five innings in any of his last four starts, but the underlying numbers are a bit better than his 6.75 ERA. That’s not to suggest there aren’t problems though and we’ll get into all that a bit later. His 13.5 K-BB% on the season is just about average and a bit better than last season. The Angels are really a neutral offense that gets the downgrade to a favorable matchup here.
Stephen Strasburg is one of today’s top pitchers going solely by the numbers (19.8 K-BB%), but poses a huge injury risk. He was removed from his last start almost two weeks ago due to a back issue and has been bothered by “stuff” all season. He has a 24.1 K-BB% at home since last season when he does take the mound though. The matchup is unfavorable against the smoking Mets (remember when they were the worst road team in baseball around two months ago) who have a 20.6 HR/FB and 23.1 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Vidal Nuno has a decent ERA, but has been much less effective in his five starts, allowing nine HRs with a 34.7 Hard% despite just a 12.8 LD%. Most of them are leaving the yard. The Rangers are a poor offense on the road and vs LHP though (22.0 K%) and could let him hang around for a while. They lean mostly LH and are potentially the top park adjusted matchup tonight. Eleven of his 12 HRs have come to RHB.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Jake Odorizzi (.273 BABIP – 75.3 LOB% – 7.9 HR/FB) – On the road, he has an ERA, FIP, and xFIP of about four with a 10.1 HR/FB and is an unfavorable spot tonight.
Joe Kelly (Last 30 days – .239 BABIP – 87.4 LOB% – 7.1 HR/FB) – His 7.1 K-BB% and 18.0 Hard-Soft% over the last month are actually worse than his season marks, so consider his 1.65 ERA over his last five starts a complete fluke.
Zachary Godley (.261 BABIP – 83.3 LOB% – 18.2 HR/FB) – A 12.3 BB% with an 18.2 HR/FB in Arizona should destroy your ERA, but somehow he’s turned in a low BABIP without a single pop up and normal 19.7 LD% and is stranding way too many runners. A 15.1 Hard-Soft% supports a high HR rate.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Chris Heston – His peripherals have really fallen apart over the last month as he’s failed to complete six innings in five of his last six starts. He shouldn’t be one of those guys on an innings count with nearly 180 innings last year though.
Julio Teheran has an ERA near six on the road with a matching FIP (18.9 HR/FB). His 4.64 xFIP (8.7 K-BB%) is not so much better.
Drew Hutchison seems to have had bad outings every time I recommend him at home, so at least we can now safely ignore him altogether on the road, where he’s been much worse (peripherals and results) in a hostile environment.
Ubaldo Jimenez has failed to complete six innings in nine of his last 11 starts and has at least three walks in three of his last four starts. Welcome back Ubaldo.
C.C. Sabathia last pitched fewer than three innings on August 23rd due to a knee injury. Who knows how effect or healthy he’ll be here or how long he’ll last even if he is?
Ariel Pena is a 26 year old bullpen arm at AAA this year, who is starting a major league game presumably because nobody else can. A double digit walk rate has followed him around the minors through two organizations, killing any prospect hype he may have once had a long time ago as part of the Zack Greinke trade along with Jean Segura.
David Buchanan has 26 strikeouts in 10 starts this season and if there is one thing the Braves do well, it’s make contact against RHPs, leaving almost no upside here.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | Athletics | 16.8% | 6.0% | Home | 19.2% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 7.5% |
| Ariel Pena | Brewers | 15.4% | 7.7% | Road | 15.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 23.2% | 8.6% | Home | 22.7% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 10.6% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 19.5% | 6.2% | Home | 22.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Chris Heston | Giants | 17.9% | 8.0% | Road | 17.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 4.6% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 14.7% | 6.2% | Road | 14.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.6% | 6.1% | Road | 21.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.5% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 13.1% | 7.2% | Home | 12.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 21.8% | 7.1% | Road | 20.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 20.8% | 7.5% | Home | 20.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 9.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 19.4% | 7.3% | Road | 18.3% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 2.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 25.9% | 6.3% | Road | 24.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 3.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 23.1% | 7.3% | Road | 21.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 8.2% |
| James Shields | Padres | 22.1% | 6.5% | Home | 22.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 13.8% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.8% | 5.4% | Home | 21.4% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 12.5% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 16.8% | 8.8% | Home | 18.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 24.3% | 5.7% | Road | 23.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 4.1% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 21.5% | 2.9% | Road | 21.4% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 1.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 20.7% | 6.8% | Road | 19.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 13.7% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 18.8% | 10.7% | Home | 22.0% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 13.9% |
| Kris Medlen | Royals | 22.1% | 6.8% | Home | 21.9% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 5.9% |
| Kyle Lobstein | Tigers | 12.6% | 8.2% | Home | 11.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 15.3% | 8.2% | Road | 13.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 7.7% |
| Mat Latos | Dodgers | 18.3% | 6.5% | Road | 19.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 7.9% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 12.0% | 7.9% | Road | 9.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 5.3% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 26.7% | 5.2% | Home | 28.7% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 2.5% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 17.5% | 8.8% | Home | 19.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 9.6% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.3% | 10.2% | Road | 20.9% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 17.7% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 19.6% | 6.5% | Home | 18.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Zachary Godley | Diamondbacks | 21.9% | 12.3% | Home | 33.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 28.6% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Road | 22.6% | 7.5% | RH | 24.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.0% | 6.6% | RH | 19.0% | 6.2% | L7Days | 14.4% | 4.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.7% | 8.6% | RH | 23.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.9% | 12.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.9% | 6.4% | LH | 22.7% | 5.5% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.1% | 8.0% | RH | 20.6% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.4% |
| Padres | Home | 22.2% | 6.6% | LH | 23.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.2% | 7.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 16.4% | 7.4% | RH | 18.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 18.2% | 7.6% |
| Braves | Road | 18.9% | 6.9% | RH | 17.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.9% | 10.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 7.5% | RH | 17.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 15.0% | 7.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.0% | 10.1% | RH | 20.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 12.2% |
| Reds | Home | 19.1% | 8.9% | LH | 20.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.6% | 6.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.9% | 9.1% | RH | 21.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 10.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.4% | 7.4% | RH | 20.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 4.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.9% | 5.9% | RH | 20.2% | 6.0% | L7Days | 18.1% | 3.9% |
| Indians | Road | 18.8% | 8.3% | RH | 18.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.9% | 8.4% | RH | 18.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.1% | 8.5% | LH | 22.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.0% | 7.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.0% | 7.0% | RH | 20.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 19.8% | 6.6% | RH | 20.2% | 5.9% | L7Days | 24.2% | 3.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.1% | 6.9% | RH | 20.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.3% |
| Twins | Road | 23.2% | 6.7% | RH | 21.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.9% |
| Rays | Road | 20.5% | 7.4% | LH | 21.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.9% | 7.9% | LH | 22.1% | 6.2% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.7% |
| Angels | Home | 20.0% | 7.6% | RH | 19.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.5% |
| Royals | Home | 14.1% | 6.6% | RH | 15.4% | 6.3% | L7Days | 14.0% | 5.4% |
| Mets | Road | 21.3% | 7.2% | RH | 20.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.5% | 11.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.7% | 5.9% | RH | 20.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.1% | 8.8% | RH | 19.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.4% | 7.4% | LH | 22.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 13.6% |
| Giants | Road | 18.9% | 6.8% | RH | 18.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.8% | 4.2% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | Athletics | 25.9% | 10.0% | 7.5% | Home | 22.7% | 6.3% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Ariel Pena | Brewers | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 20.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | Home | 20.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 22.4% | 17.2% | 9.1% | Home | 23.0% | 17.8% | 11.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Chris Heston | Giants | 22.2% | 11.3% | 10.4% | Road | 23.2% | 16.1% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 21.5% | 14.6% | 9.8% | Road | 22.0% | 15.6% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.9% | 9.5% | 10.7% | Road | 20.0% | 9.2% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 8.3% | 25.0% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 21.0% | 11.1% | 14.0% | Home | 19.3% | 11.5% | 16.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 21.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | Road | 22.1% | 10.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 19.4% | 7.8% | 10.2% | Home | 18.6% | 6.7% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 21.5% | 10.3% | 10.3% | Road | 23.0% | 10.7% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 22.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | Road | 20.1% | 11.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 21.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | Road | 21.4% | 13.1% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.2% | 12.5% | 9.9% | Home | 22.7% | 12.1% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.4% | 11.1% | 10.4% | Home | 20.7% | 11.9% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 22.4% | 11.1% | 6.7% | Home | 26.0% | 8.9% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 21.1% | 8.1% | 12.1% | Road | 21.2% | 11.0% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Josh Tomlin | Indians | 24.4% | 15.0% | 10.2% | Road | 25.5% | 10.7% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 13.8% | 6.9% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 22.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | Road | 24.6% | 12.2% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 25.0% | 11.1% | 22.2% | Home | 23.6% | 15.8% | 26.3% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Kris Medlen | Royals | 19.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | Home | 14.8% | 17.6% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Lobstein | Tigers | 18.7% | 7.4% | 9.6% | Home | 19.5% | 8.6% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 20.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | Road | 16.9% | 6.3% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Mat Latos | Dodgers | 23.4% | 8.5% | 11.6% | Road | 21.5% | 6.8% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 22.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | Road | 21.8% | 11.8% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 22.6% | 12.6% | 9.7% | Home | 21.5% | 11.1% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 21.4% | 35.7% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | Home | 19.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.5% | 11.4% | 11.1% | Road | 22.5% | 13.2% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 18.0% | 12.6% | 8.2% | Home | 18.2% | 12.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Godley | Diamondbacks | 19.7% | 18.2% | 0.0% | Home | 8.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Road | 21.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% | RH | 19.9% | 14.3% | 11.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 12.9% | 8.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | RH | 20.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.6% | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.6% | 11.3% | 7.4% | RH | 20.0% | 13.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.9% | 24.6% | 3.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.6% | 12.8% | 11.1% | LH | 20.8% | 11.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.3% | 20.0% | 10.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.9% | 10.2% | 7.8% | RH | 21.7% | 10.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 17.6% | 8.8% |
| Padres | Home | 21.0% | 11.6% | 7.4% | LH | 22.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 23.0% | 15.1% | 5.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.5% | 7.4% | 11.0% | RH | 20.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 14.1% | 7.8% |
| Braves | Road | 22.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | RH | 22.0% | 7.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 3.7% | 18.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.0% | RH | 20.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | L7Days | 21.3% | 13.0% | 7.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.6% | 12.9% | 10.4% | RH | 21.8% | 13.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 25.7% | 12.1% | 12.1% |
| Reds | Home | 23.3% | 11.8% | 8.9% | LH | 22.7% | 14.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 25.6% | 9.8% | 5.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.5% | 13.6% | 8.4% | RH | 20.9% | 13.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 18.6% | 6.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.7% | 9.8% | 9.5% | RH | 21.5% | 10.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.7% | 11.3% | 9.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | RH | 21.2% | 14.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| Indians | Road | 20.3% | 10.2% | 10.5% | RH | 21.4% | 9.9% | 12.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.2% | 13.3% | 13.9% | RH | 19.4% | 14.7% | 12.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 12.2% | 10.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | LH | 20.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 6.5% | 4.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | RH | 21.2% | 11.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.1% | 11.8% | 10.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | RH | 22.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.3% | 9.6% | 7.9% | RH | 21.3% | 10.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Twins | Road | 19.3% | 9.0% | 10.8% | RH | 20.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 15.0% | 10.3% | 13.8% |
| Rays | Road | 21.0% | 10.5% | 9.9% | LH | 20.9% | 12.5% | 11.2% | L7Days | 19.1% | 13.1% | 8.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.7% | 12.2% | 8.9% | LH | 21.7% | 14.2% | 10.8% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.1% | 10.6% |
| Angels | Home | 20.4% | 11.9% | 10.1% | RH | 20.4% | 11.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.2% | 10.9% | 4.3% |
| Royals | Home | 20.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | RH | 20.9% | 9.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.0% | 15.3% | 5.1% |
| Mets | Road | 22.7% | 10.9% | 10.0% | RH | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 18.7% | 20.6% | 4.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | RH | 21.1% | 10.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.4% | 19.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.2% | 14.3% | 11.8% | RH | 20.9% | 13.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 15.9% | 19.7% | 14.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.4% | 10.8% | 10.0% | LH | 19.5% | 12.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 13.5% | 8.2% | 13.1% |
| Giants | Road | 22.1% | 11.6% | 6.2% | RH | 21.2% | 10.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.4% | 6.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | 18.4% | 8.3% | 2.22 | 14.8% | 4.9% | 3.02 |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.28 | 15.4% | 3.6% | 4.28 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 24.0% | 10.2% | 2.35 | 23.1% | 12.5% | 1.85 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.7% | 8.7% | 2.15 | 11.8% | 6.3% | 1.87 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 17.9% | 8.7% | 2.06 | 14.1% | 8.0% | 1.76 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 15.3% | 8.7% | 1.76 | 14.7% | 7.4% | 1.99 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 19.5% | 10.5% | 1.86 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 2.00 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 11.0% | 6.5% | 1.69 | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.60 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.02 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.83 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.69 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 1.41 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 18.8% | 7.5% | 2.51 | 22.8% | 7.9% | 2.89 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 26.3% | 12.3% | 2.14 | 26.2% | 14.4% | 1.82 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.19 | 26.5% | 11.1% | 2.39 |
| James Shields | SDG | 25.1% | 12.7% | 1.98 | 21.1% | 11.7% | 1.80 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 18.2% | 10.0% | 1.82 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.95 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 18.4% | 7.6% | 2.42 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 2.21 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.3% | 10.2% | 2.38 | 24.0% | 10.0% | 2.40 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 24.6% | 9.2% | 2.67 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 2.67 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 20.1% | 10.5% | 1.91 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.62 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 18.8% | 8.4% | 2.24 | 15.8% | 8.6% | 1.84 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 22.1% | 8.7% | 2.54 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 2.30 |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 9.7% | 7.3% | 1.33 | 9.1% | 4.7% | 1.94 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 13.0% | 6.7% | 1.94 | 11.9% | 6.9% | 1.72 |
| Mat Latos | LOS | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.04 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.16 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 12.0% | 5.7% | 2.11 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.16 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 25.1% | 9.7% | 2.59 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.13 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 16.7% | 7.3% | 2.29 | 14.9% | 8.9% | 1.67 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 20.9% | 8.2% | 2.55 | 17.6% | 6.2% | 2.84 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 21.0% | 10.7% | 1.96 | 13.6% | 8.4% | 1.62 |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 21.9% | 10.6% | 2.07 | 18.2% | 8.2% | 2.22 |
Aaron Brooks – His SwStr% in his five starts have been all over the place, twice below 4% and once reaching 13.0%. There’s no real pattern yet.
Garrett Richards inexplicably had just a 4.4 SwStr% in his last start, but a double digit SwStr% in each of the seven starts preceding it, so we’ll just hope it was an aberration. His SwStr% has been stronger than his K% suggests the entire season.
J.A. Happ hasn’t generated enough of a jump in his SwStr% to sustain the gain in K%, though Pittsburgh does boast some elite catcher framing. An above average K% is still not something I’d expect him to sustain going forward, though something close to average is possible.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | 6.91 | 3.99 | -2.92 | 4.05 | -2.86 | 3.63 | -3.28 | 15.3 | 4.83 | -10.47 | 4.66 | -10.64 | 5.94 | -9.36 |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | 6 | 5.55 | -0.45 | 6.73 | 0.73 | 3.81 | -2.19 | 6 | 5.55 | -0.45 | 6.73 | 0.73 | 3.81 | -2.19 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.04 | 3.46 | 0.42 | 3.32 | 0.28 | 3.31 | 0.27 | 5.04 | 3.02 | -2.02 | 2.87 | -2.17 | 2.39 | -2.65 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 5.27 | 4 | -1.27 | 3.92 | -1.35 | 4.84 | -0.43 | 4.7 | 5.89 | 1.19 | 5.48 | 0.78 | 5.56 | 0.86 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 3.54 | 3.99 | 0.45 | 3.89 | 0.35 | 3.93 | 0.39 | 3.98 | 5.32 | 1.34 | 5.07 | 1.09 | 7.32 | 3.34 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 4.78 | 4.11 | -0.67 | 3.91 | -0.87 | 4.32 | -0.46 | 5.06 | 4.35 | -0.71 | 4.1 | -0.96 | 3.86 | -1.2 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 3.75 | 3.92 | 0.17 | 3.93 | 0.18 | 3.61 | -0.14 | 1.29 | 3.4 | 2.11 | 3.29 | 2 | 2.5 | 1.21 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 9 | 5.31 | -3.69 | 5.19 | -3.81 | 5.35 | -3.65 | 59.4 | 6.95 | -52.45 | 10.79 | -48.61 | 21.14 | -38.26 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 5.07 | 4 | -1.07 | 4.08 | -0.99 | 4.09 | -0.98 | 3.51 | 3.55 | 0.04 | 3.7 | 0.19 | 4.2 | 0.69 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.77 | 3.99 | 0.22 | 3.87 | 0.1 | 3.8 | 0.03 | 4.94 | 3.8 | -1.14 | 3.68 | -1.26 | 3.63 | -1.31 |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 3.9 | 4.07 | 0.17 | 3.93 | 0.03 | 3.68 | -0.22 | 0.6 | 3.41 | 2.81 | 3.32 | 2.72 | 2.34 | 1.74 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 3.03 | 0.63 | 2.87 | 0.47 | 3.68 | 3.33 | -0.35 | 3.01 | -0.67 | 3.69 | 0.01 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.35 | 3.77 | 0.42 | 3.88 | 0.53 | 3.38 | 0.03 | 5.52 | 3.37 | -2.15 | 3.72 | -1.8 | 3.45 | -2.07 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.83 | 3.64 | -0.19 | 3.61 | -0.22 | 4.37 | 0.54 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 4.49 | 0.29 | 4.91 | 0.71 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 4.87 | 4.12 | -0.75 | 4.22 | -0.65 | 4.14 | -0.73 | 6.16 | 4.14 | -2.02 | 4.44 | -1.72 | 5.56 | -0.6 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 4.84 | 4.26 | -0.58 | 4.12 | -0.72 | 4.2 | -0.64 | 1.65 | 4.49 | 2.84 | 4.27 | 2.62 | 3.82 | 2.17 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.59 | 3.28 | -0.31 | 3.15 | -0.44 | 3.07 | -0.52 | 5.4 | 3.41 | -1.99 | 3.22 | -2.18 | 3.46 | -1.94 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 2.55 | 3.17 | 0.62 | 3.4 | 0.85 | 4.16 | 1.61 | 2.55 | 3.17 | 0.62 | 3.4 | 0.85 | 4.16 | 1.61 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.51 | 4.22 | -0.29 | 4.19 | -0.32 | 4.63 | 0.12 | 4.25 | 4.12 | -0.13 | 4.31 | 0.06 | 5.6 | 1.35 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 6.68 | 4.64 | -2.04 | 4.58 | -2.1 | 4.56 | -2.12 | 9 | 5.09 | -3.91 | 4.97 | -4.03 | 5.41 | -3.59 |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 4.88 | 3.35 | -1.53 | 3.52 | -1.36 | 3.97 | -0.91 | 4.74 | 3.17 | -1.57 | 3.35 | -1.39 | 3.75 | -0.99 |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 5.02 | 4.97 | -0.05 | 4.68 | -0.34 | 4.34 | -0.68 | 12.46 | 5.78 | -6.68 | 5.96 | -6.5 | 6.61 | -5.85 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 5.07 | 4 | -1.07 | 4.04 | -1.03 | 3.3 | -1.77 | 4.24 | 4.04 | -0.2 | 4.08 | -0.16 | 3.83 | -0.41 |
| Mat Latos | LOS | 4.92 | 3.9 | -1.02 | 3.69 | -1.23 | 3.47 | -1.45 | 6.75 | 3.25 | -3.5 | 2.78 | -3.97 | 1.79 | -4.96 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 4.17 | 4.57 | 0.4 | 4.42 | 0.25 | 3.97 | -0.2 | 5.84 | 4.05 | -1.79 | 3.77 | -2.07 | 3.47 | -2.37 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 4.35 | 3.25 | -1.1 | 3.21 | -1.14 | 3.35 | -1 | 3.13 | 3 | -0.13 | 3.06 | -0.07 | 3.23 | 0.1 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.08 | 4.63 | 0.55 | 4.58 | 0.5 | 4.59 | 0.51 | 5.52 | 5.25 | -0.27 | 5.4 | -0.12 | 5.53 | 0.01 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 4.24 | 3.92 | -0.32 | 3.78 | -0.46 | 4.1 | -0.14 | 6.33 | 4.75 | -1.58 | 4.48 | -1.85 | 5.22 | -1.11 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 3.3 | 3.62 | 0.32 | 4.11 | 0.81 | 4.69 | 1.39 | 4.63 | 4.64 | 0.01 | 5.03 | 0.4 | 6.74 | 2.11 |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 3.62 | 4.3 | 0.68 | 4.24 | 0.62 | 4.97 | 1.35 | 7.71 | 6.05 | -1.66 | 5.73 | -1.98 | 7.11 | -0.6 |
Aaron Brooks has been either very good or disastrous in his five starts with no in between, making it difficult to make sense of his small sample so far.
Chris Rusin may not be able to do much about either his .338 BABIP, 68.3 LOB%, or 14.7 HR/FB as member of the Rockies, but at least his 2.0 GB/FB limits the HR damage and he might find improvement on the road.
Collin McHugh – While a 17.7 K-BB% and -3.2 Hard-Soft% over the last month have been incredibly impressive, he’s also benefited from an 86.7 LOB% and 3.0 HR/FB. His BABIP, which is still a bit higher than his profile suggests for the season, has been a reasonably low .275 over the last month as well. That part may be sustainable.
J.A. Happ – In addition to all of the great stuff we’ve mentioned about him over the last month above, he also has just a .244 BABIP and 3.4 HR/FB with a 97.6 LOB%.
Jeff Samardzija has a .306 BABIP a bit above his career average (.296), but below what his team has allowed with a 10.7 HR/FB that’s both normal and right at his career rate (10.9). A 67.5 LOB%, the lowest since he became a starter, is what’s pushed his ERA well above his estimators, not that his estimators are very good either. Over the last month, his strand rate has somehow improved to 74.1% despite a .344 BABIP and 17.9 HR/FB. He has not been hit overly hard though (20.8 LD%, 11.3 Hard-Soft%) and has an average 12.6 K-BB% over the last 30 days.
Josh Tomlin – While his underlying numbers are very good and a 15.9 HR/FB starts to balance and hide some other numbers, a .170 BABIP and 98.7 LOB% are nowhere near sustainable, but it’s just five starts.
Kris Medlen was completely and totally BABIPed in his last start as we already mentioned and has a 15.4 HR/FB (allowing one in each of his three starts), but now also has a 66.9 LOB%.
Martin Perez has an unsustainable 2.9 HR/FB, but has allowed just 40 fly balls so far. With a batted ball profile full of weak ground balls, a .331 BABIP seems like a fluke with a 59.2 LOB% that’s ripe for regression.
Mat Latos actually has better ERA estimators this season than last year when he had a 3.25 ERA. He’s missing bats at a league average rate again and even better than that over the last month despite the terrible results. For the season, he has stranded just 62.4% of his runners and that’s been his main issue (sequencing). Broken down into his last four starts, which have been disastrous, he has an average 12.7 K-BB%, but a .421 BABIP, 49.7 LOB%, and 15.4 HR/FB. Some of that is deserved as we can’t deny he’s been hit hard (25.4 Hard-Soft%, 25.5 LD%), so I can’t blindly revert to the estimators here, but it’s probably likely he strands more than 60% of his runners going forward with a BABIP below .400. I can’t promise much on the HR rate if he continues to allow such hard contact.
Stephen Strasburg has a .323 BABIP despite a great IFFB% probably because of his defense and that’s also led to a 66.3 LOB%. His 12.4 HR/FB isn’t far above his career rate, but his 7.8 Hard-Soft% is an improvement.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | 0.285 | 0.359 | 0.074 | 8.6% | 90.9% |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | 0.302 | 0.222 | -0.08 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.296 | 0.316 | 0.02 | 6.5% | 87.9% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.300 | 0.326 | 0.026 | 9.0% | 90.1% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.287 | 0.292 | 0.005 | 10.7% | 87.6% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 0.316 | 0.338 | 0.022 | 9.5% | 87.6% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.281 | 0.307 | 0.026 | 11.0% | 86.1% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 0.317 | 0.376 | 0.059 | 14.0% | 92.0% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 0.280 | 0.336 | 0.056 | 13.2% | 85.4% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 0.286 | 0.282 | -0.004 | 11.3% | 88.3% |
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 0.301 | 0.314 | 0.013 | 13.4% | 88.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.286 | 0.260 | -0.026 | 9.2% | 84.6% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.282 | 0.273 | -0.009 | 9.8% | 85.7% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.298 | 0.303 | 0.005 | 9.5% | 84.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 0.313 | 0.306 | -0.007 | 10.3% | 87.2% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.307 | 0.313 | 0.006 | 5.9% | 92.1% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.294 | 0.318 | 0.024 | 8.2% | 86.8% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | 0.289 | 0.170 | -0.119 | 6.8% | 91.0% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.310 | 0.294 | -0.016 | 9.9% | 85.3% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 0.289 | 0.376 | 0.087 | 22.2% | 86.4% |
| Kris Medlen | KAN | 0.284 | 0.306 | 0.022 | 7.7% | 90.8% |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 0.303 | 0.313 | 0.01 | 10.4% | 88.6% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.295 | 0.331 | 0.036 | 8.8% | 91.5% |
| Mat Latos | LOS | 0.297 | 0.312 | 0.015 | 6.6% | 87.5% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.300 | 0.327 | 0.027 | 7.1% | 92.6% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.306 | 0.323 | 0.017 | 14.6% | 85.1% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.295 | 0.274 | -0.021 | 7.3% | 90.6% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.296 | 0.314 | 0.018 | 12.7% | 89.0% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 0.297 | 0.287 | -0.01 | 7.3% | 85.5% |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 0.296 | 0.261 | -0.035 | 0.0% | 86.7% |
No additional notes today.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Kris Medlen (4t) – His last start was a fluke. Over 2/3 of his batted balls were on the ground and very few of them hit hard. He’s very likely to have a rebound against a terrible road team at a bargain price (especially on DraftKings) on a day where there aren’t too many reasons to reach for high priced pitching. There is nobody in his stratosphere as far as potential return value is concerned.
Value Tier Two – It sure would be nice to have Jon Lester and Carlos Martinez pitching tonight.
Stephen Strasburg (2) – The problem here is the back injury and normally I’d just throw him off to the side, but it becomes difficult pretty quickly today and pitchers are being scratched and pulled for all sorts of reasons this month. Obviously, find out whatever you can concerning his back throughout the day because this is only valid if he’s healthy, but if he is, he and deGrom are in line for tonight’s top K rate. Personally, I’ll probably look elsewhere for cash games, but a health Strasburg (big if) could give you a nice return tonight.
Value Tier Three
Josh Tomlin (3) – I’m going to like anyone who generates a near 20% K-BB, even with the hard contact, but I can’t understand how his price his risen so quickly, especially on DraftKings. He doesn’t have a bad matchup tonight, but a few balls have been known to leave that yard.
Jacob deGrom (1) is the priciest pitcher tonight and while he’s been plenty good on the road, it’s not as dominant as he’s been at home and the Nationals are a tough matchup here. It’s not been the offense that’s failed them.
Garrett Richards (5) looked set to take off before crashing into a wall in his last start. I don’t expect him to walk five batters again and his SwStr% has been excellent aside from that start while maintaining a strong tendency for weak contact.
Collin McHugh (4t) – The performance has been great since the All-Star break, although he is benefiting from an unsustainable strand rate and facing a team that doesn’t strike out a lot. It’s not a bad spot though and there are not a lot of top pitching options tonight.
Editor’s Note: Mat Latos has been scratched from tonight’s start. Joe Wieland will start for the Dodgers.
Mat Latos has allowed some hard contact, but is only stranding 50% of his runners and has been about average (or better than last year) in the K-BB department all season long. There might be some value at a below average price in a decent spot tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Martin Perez gives you no upside, but generates tons of weak ground balls and should surpass such a low price tag in a great environment.
Chris Rusin retains the Coors Field cost under a much better set of circumstances tonight.
Jeff Samardzija has not been good, but is probably not as bad as he’s looked.
Aaron Brooks is a rock bottom price in a good park who has flashed occasional potential.
Vidal Nuno – To be clear, you’re looking favorably upon any affordable RH bats with a decent lineup spot here, but the Rangers lefty leaning matchup in this environment.
James Shields – The Rockies on the road would be the only reason to pay up for him tonight, but they lean strongly LH and Petco has not stopped him from serving up HRs this year.
J.A. Happ is not nearly as good as he’s looked over the last month, but his price tag hasn’t really changed much.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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