Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, April 6th
Another early season Friday with less than the full complement of games, much less in fact. Only seven on the night slate with two late afternoon games. All pitchers are listed with night games covered in the notes. We’re towards the back of the rotation again, without a true Ace on the board, but there are a few with great “stuff” who may have that kind of upside.
Opposing team stats are finally for 2018 now. Pitcher stats will include the new season on Monday, when we’re into the third time around, hopefully finally done with all the damn snow and freezing baseball.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | -0.4 | 4.59 | 5.0 | 40.2% | 1.33 | 4.34 | 3.81 | Rockies | 55 | 83 | |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | -0.1 | 4.74 | 5.4 | 47.4% | 1.02 | 5.02 | 6.09 | Cubs | 89 | 101 | 75 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 2.2 | 3.39 | 6.1 | 46.7% | 1.06 | 3.24 | 2.37 | Royals | 20 | 61 | 36 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | -0.3 | 4.40 | 5.8 | 50.0% | 1.03 | 3.93 | 3.64 | Orioles | 97 | 148 | 70 |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | -7.7 | 4.76 | 5.1 | 43.1% | 0.93 | 4.54 | 5.89 | Angels | 121 | 139 | 112 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.5 | 3.87 | 6.2 | 37.8% | 1.06 | 4.57 | 5.71 | Indians | 110 | 61 | |
| Derek Holland | Giants | -1.8 | 5.36 | 5.2 | 38.0% | 0.93 | 5.67 | Dodgers | 54 | 50 | 53 | |
| German Marquez | Rockies | -0.9 | 4.26 | 5.5 | 46.4% | 1.33 | 3.76 | 4.62 | Braves | 138 | 129 | |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 4.2 | 3.74 | 5.3 | 41.4% | 0.93 | 4.22 | 4.32 | Giants | 164 | 111 | 85 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | -4.7 | 4.12 | 5.7 | 43.4% | 1.03 | 4.69 | 3.03 | Yankees | 135 | 115 | 109 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 3.9 | 3.82 | 6.1 | 49.3% | 1.02 | 3.44 | 2.52 | Brewers | 72 | 88 | 88 |
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | -3.7 | 3.53 | 5.5 | 58.9% | 0.87 | 2.90 | 3.65 | Padres | 92 | 108 | |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 4.8 | 3.63 | 5.9 | 58.8% | 0.98 | 3.35 | Pirates | 114 | 109 | 116 | |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | -4.1 | 4.25 | 5.7 | 60.4% | 0.87 | 4.33 | 5.59 | Astros | 157 | 127 | 143 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | -1.3 | 4.47 | 5.8 | 31.9% | 1.15 | 5.06 | 5.61 | Rangers | 70 | 81 | 77 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | -1.4 | 4.63 | 5.8 | 38.2% | 1.15 | 4.81 | 5.81 | Blue Jays | 115 | 130 | |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | 3.7 | 5.04 | 5.9 | 37.6% | 0.93 | 4.85 | 6.26 | Athletics | 109 | 100 | |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.1 | 4.61 | 5.5 | 47.8% | 0.98 | 4.43 | 3.50 | Reds | 59 | 66 | 83 |
Brandon Woodruff has pitched twice this year, facing 16 batters in relief. Fangraphs named him the fifth ranked prospect in the Milwaukee system with a 50 Future Value grade this off-season. His pitches all appear competent at least, with some work potentially needed on the change-up. Left-handed batters (98 faced) have a .381 wOBA against him with just a 38.2 GB% and 7.2 K-BB%. The scouting report also calls him a ready, likely back-end starter, which isn’t nothing. His 82.9 mph aEV in 43 innings last year was best on today’s board, pushing his xwOBA below .300.
C.C. Sabathia has learned to use his remaining skills to generate weak contact and remain somewhat of a league average arm after his velocity has left him. An 84.4 mph aEV helps confirm a .310 wOBA and he still misses enough bats to be useful in a daily fantasy sense. While the Orioles have been death to LHP in a small sample this year, we a 0.0 Hard-Soft% with that prowess built mostly on a 16.7 BB%. This is traditionally a lineup that has struggled with lefties despite running predominantly right-handed for years.
Kenta Maeda struck out 10 of the 21 Giants he faced in his first start and was removed after 90 pitches. He’s been pretty consistent in striking out a quarter of the batters he’s faced since entering the league, one of only three pitchers to exceed a 22 K% last year on the main board tonight. He combines this with strong contact management skills, producing a .285 xwOBA that was 25 points below his actual one last year. He pitches in one of the best parks in baseball tonight, though you may have guessed the largest issue with him, which will be touched on below.
Kyle Hendricks was able to strike out batters at an above average rate and generate a 3.03 ERA, despite additional velocity losses to an already slow fastball. His strand rate was above 80% for the second year in a row and certainly not sustainable, but his 83.9 mph aEV is lowest on the board. While he did walk three of the 25 Marlins he faced in his first start, he maintained the league average strikeout rate (20%) with 10 of 16 batted balls on the ground (-12.5 Hard-Soft%) and his fastball even picked up a half mile per hour from last year. What some might overlook too is that his 6.1 innings per start over the last two years is actually the only mark above six innings on the main board. He’s facing a tough team in a tough park, but without one of their top left-handed bats (Yelich). While he’s handled LHBs well enough in his career (.300 wOBA), he’s much stronger against RHBs (.260 wOBA).
Lance McCullers (Fangraphs added the Jr. this year) is one of two enormous upside guys on tonights board. He’s one of just three main slate pitchers to strike out more than 22% of batters last year and he may have been a bit unlucky with a .330 BABIP. What everyone probably knows about him is that he LOVES to throw his curveball. He threw about 500 in a row in the post-season and 56% in his first start this year, in which he struck out 10 of the 21 Rangers he faced. As with Maeda, the issue is that he rarely exceeds 25 batters and five innings. Only three times did he accomplish both last year and two of those were his first two starts. Control has been an issue in the past, but he walked just 7.8% of batters last year. He’s in a great spot tonight, hosting the Padres in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. I’m talking about Houston, not San Diego. He had a 66.1 GB% and -4.0 Hard-Soft% at home last season, resulting in a ridiculous .245 xwOBA.
Luis Castillo is the other guy with massive upside. He generated a 27.3 K% in his rookie season (tops on the board tonight), averaging nearly 98 mph with his fastball. He struck out 27.3% in his first start of 2018, averaging 96.2 mph with his fastball, allowing two HRs and six runs to the Nationals. Begs the question, does that large a velocity drop alarm us even if the pitcher is still throwing 96 mph? Not immediately, I’d guess. The Nats are a good offense. I’m not going to immediately worry about a pitcher who had a 22.7 K-BB% in his first start, even if he had a 40 Hard%, especially when he gets a significant park upgrade in Pittsburgh tonight.
Trevor Williams walked five Tigers, striking out just one of 20 batters in his season debut, but somehow escaped without a run. He’s had a league average walk rate in 163 career innings prior. His 18.4 K% last season is just on the border of being at least DFS useful in addition to strong contact management skills, but he had some strange splits that had him below a 14 K% in two months last season, but 19.5% or better in all other months. Combine that with an 85 mph aEV, which justifies a .312 wOBA and a great park and he’s turned himself into a quality arm. His 0.9 mph Effective Velocity is best on the board, making a 93.2 mph heater look like 94 last year. He was down a mile per hour in his first start, but that’s not yet a major drop in the cold weather. The number to look at with concern is around two miles per hour for consecutive starts to start the season (like Robbie bleepin Ray!) and he’s nowhere near that yet.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Parker Bridwell (.262 – 79.3% – 12.3) generated a lot of popups (12.9 IFFB%), but Statcast does not absolve him. He had the largest negative difference (32 points) between his wOBA and xwOBA (.346) on the board. He was the likely beneficiary of a favorable park and that may be the case again last year, but his ERA was by no means a byproduct of weak contact generation.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Kevin Gausman allowed three HRs in his first outing against the Twins in Baltimore. He strikeout rate surged in the second half last season (18.4% to 26.2%) when he increased the usage of his splitter (17.6% to 24.1%). Yet, in his first start of 2018, he used that pitch only 16.4% of the time and dealt with a fastball almost a full three miles per hour slower than last year’s average. He also has a pretty significant reverse platoon split, not something a RHP wants to visit Yankee Stadium with these days.
Marco Estrada asserts that his disastrous middle of 2017 was due to sleep deprivation and anxiety and that’s powerful enough to screw with anyone’s performance. Perhaps we should look for better things this season or perhaps he faced similar issues before his first start. The Yankee lineup should make pitchers lose sleep. He surrendered two HRs and struck out just two of 27 batters, yet somehow completed seven innings. He gets a park downgrade tonight. There should probably be some concern for a pitcher with a 30.3 GB% in Texas, though h should improve on the two strikeouts.
Derek Holland has San Francisco and a great sense of humor going for him. (I joked on Twitter that the Giants were just one injury away from naming him Opening Day starter and he liked the tweet.) Unfortunately, he doesn’t have many major league pitches going for him anymore. RHBs destroyed him last year (.408 wOBA) and Statcast confirms the overall destruction last season.
Luis Perdomo faces the Astros. We should note that though RHBs have a .344 career wOBA against him, he’s grounded them on 66.5% of batted balls. This has the potential to mind-***k with your lineup construction tonight. How much exposure to right-handed Houston bats? Is it a fade?
Matt Moore goes from San Francisco to Texas with some of the worst Statcast numbers on the board. His .358 wOBA was completely confirmed by a .352 xwOBA. Stranger things have happened, but this is unlikely to work out very well, especially in home starts.
Daniel Gossett does not miss many bats and allows hard contact. He didn’t strike out a single one of the 18 Angels he faced first time out. There’s no reason to project for tonight to go that much differently.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | Season | 18.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | Road | 17.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | -3.7% | L14Days | 23.1% | 7.7% | 5.5% | |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% | Season | 17.4% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 3.0% | Home | 15.7% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 2.6% | L14Days | 10.8% | 10.8% | 20.0% | 3.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Yrs | 26.9% | 5.7% | 14.1% | 14.5% | Season | 28.3% | 5.8% | 12.4% | 9.9% | Home | 27.8% | 5.5% | 16.0% | 11.5% | L14Days | 36.4% | 5.5% | 15.6% | |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 19.6% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 1.9% | Season | 19.3% | 8.0% | 17.2% | 3.1% | Home | 21.0% | 7.4% | 19.4% | 10.9% | L14Days | 22.4% | 3.0% | 25.0% | 2.0% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 17.4% | 7.5% | 21.2% | 17.0% | Season | 17.4% | 7.5% | 21.2% | 17.0% | Road | 16.9% | 8.2% | 20.3% | 20.0% | L14Days | 12.3% | 10.5% | 43.8% | 22.7% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 15.5% | Season | 21.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 12.0% | Road | 21.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 11.2% | L14Days | 12.5% | 10.4% | 2.7% | |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 15.7% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 18.0% | Season | 16.6% | 12.0% | 17.6% | 20.8% | Home | 18.0% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 18.7% | L14Days | ||||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 6.9% | 15.6% | 16.7% | Season | 21.0% | 7.0% | 15.4% | 16.8% | Home | 22.5% | 5.9% | 20.3% | 17.1% | L14Days | 14.1% | 7.0% | 26.7% | -3.7% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 25.1% | 6.6% | 13.3% | 8.3% | Season | 25.1% | 6.1% | 15.0% | 7.4% | Road | 23.9% | 7.0% | 19.5% | 11.9% | L14Days | 21.4% | 10.7% | 20.0% | -5.5% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 22.4% | 7.5% | 15.1% | 13.5% | Season | 21.9% | 8.7% | 14.8% | 14.1% | Road | 19.3% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 13.6% | L14Days | 28.8% | 4.1% | 14.3% | 20.8% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 6.3% | 11.5% | 3.8% | Season | 21.6% | 7.0% | 14.8% | 7.9% | Road | 23.6% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 8.3% | L14Days | 32.6% | 4.4% | 20.7% | |
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.5% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 6.2% | Season | 25.8% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 7.3% | Home | 29.9% | 8.1% | 17.9% | -4.0% | L14Days | 27.8% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 34.8% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Yrs | 27.3% | 8.9% | 17.2% | 7.6% | Season | 27.3% | 8.9% | 17.2% | 7.6% | Road | 27.1% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 3.5% | L14Days | ||||
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.2% | 8.1% | 18.6% | 15.4% | Season | 16.5% | 9.1% | 15.6% | 13.5% | Road | 15.4% | 8.5% | 22.2% | 13.3% | L14Days | 13.3% | 12.0% | 1.8% | |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 22.5% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 7.6% | Season | 21.8% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 5.8% | Road | 21.7% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 3.3% | L14Days | 14.0% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 6.0% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 16.9% | Season | 18.7% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 18.8% | Home | 19.5% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 16.3% | L14Days | 15.4% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 14.3% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | L2 Yrs | 15.0% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 18.2% | Season | 14.8% | 6.1% | 12.3% | 17.4% | Home | 15.6% | 5.3% | 14.1% | 13.7% | L14Days | 6.9% | 6.9% | 14.3% | |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 7.6% | Season | 18.2% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | Home | 18.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 10.0% | L14Days | 27.9% | 7.0% | 25.0% | 33.3% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | RH | 19.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 20.7% | L7Days | 22.5% | 11.3% | 16.3% | 17.6% | ||||
| Cubs | Road | 24.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 17.9% | RH | 24.8% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 20.3% |
| Royals | Road | 10.8% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 16.4% | RH | 9.5% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 17.9% | L7Days | 11.7% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 14.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 29.4% | 5.9% | 12.9% | 5.1% | LH | 25.0% | 16.7% | 12.5% | 0.0% | L7Days | 28.1% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 0.7% |
| Angels | Home | 18.9% | 7.4% | 17.1% | 19.6% | RH | 13.2% | 4.7% | 12.3% | 18.5% | L7Days | 16.5% | 5.1% | 11.0% | 18.7% |
| Indians | Home | LH | 22.2% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 22.9% | L7Days | 25.1% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 20.8% | ||||
| Dodgers | Road | 22.4% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | LH | 31.6% | 11.2% | 5.6% | 17.9% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.1% |
| Braves | Road | RH | 17.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 4.7% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | ||||
| Giants | Home | 10.4% | 9.1% | 30.0% | 27.4% | RH | 20.2% | 7.1% | 16.7% | 19.6% | L7Days | 17.1% | 7.2% | 15.2% | 19.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.5% | 13.4% | 20.7% | 11.3% | RH | 24.3% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 5.9% | L7Days | 24.8% | 13.1% | 15.0% | 4.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 30.5% | 4.3% | 16.1% | 8.9% | RH | 30.6% | 7.0% | 14.7% | 22.7% | L7Days | 24.8% | 5.8% | 11.1% | 12.9% |
| Padres | Road | RH | 22.2% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 14.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.4% | 16.7% | 17.8% | ||||
| Pirates | Home | 13.9% | 16.5% | 12.5% | 16.2% | RH | 15.1% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 13.0% | L7Days | 16.4% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 12.6% |
| Astros | Home | 24.1% | 9.8% | 20.0% | 14.0% | RH | 23.0% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 20.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 24.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 29.0% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 24.5% | RH | 22.8% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 25.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 19.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | LH | 23.5% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 18.2% | L7Days | 24.9% | 9.0% | 16.1% | 20.0% | ||||
| Athletics | Road | RH | 23.3% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 20.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 26.7% | ||||
| Reds | Road | 19.4% | 13.9% | 10.0% | 8.3% | RH | 24.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 1.4% | L7Days | 25.3% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 6.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 18.8% | 8.4% | 2.24 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 2.36 |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 17.4% | 8.8% | 1.98 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 2.18 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 28.3% | 13.4% | 2.11 | 31.4% | 15.0% | 2.09 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 19.3% | 8.9% | 2.17 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 2.21 |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.96 | 17.6% | 9.7% | 1.81 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 21.4% | 11.4% | 1.88 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 2.28 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 16.6% | 7.1% | 2.34 | 25.0% | 14.3% | 1.75 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 21.0% | 9.1% | 2.31 | 15.8% | 7.6% | 2.08 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 25.1% | 12.5% | 2.01 | 29.0% | 11.7% | 2.48 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 21.9% | 10.9% | 2.01 | 26.5% | 11.1% | 2.39 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 21.6% | 8.3% | 2.60 | 23.6% | 6.5% | 3.63 |
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | 25.8% | 12.0% | 2.15 | 24.1% | 9.9% | 2.43 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 27.3% | 12.7% | 2.15 | 35.7% | 20.7% | 1.72 |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | 16.5% | 8.8% | 1.88 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 1.80 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 21.8% | 10.9% | 2.00 | 17.2% | 9.6% | 1.79 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 18.7% | 8.6% | 2.17 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 2.31 |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | 14.8% | 9.2% | 1.61 | 13.9% | 9.3% | 1.49 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 18.2% | 8.4% | 2.17 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 2.10 |
Parker Bridwell is your lone outlier for last season and he may potentially have more issues than a slight bump in K% will help. Maybe there’s a conversation if he reaches a league average strikeout rate.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 3.98 | 4.55 | 0.57 | 3.98 | 0.36 | 3.28 | -0.70 | 4.72 | 0.74 | 6.00 | 3.81 | -2.19 | 3.64 | -2.36 | 2.16 | -3.84 |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 4.81 | 4.74 | -0.07 | 4.81 | -0.09 | 4.37 | -0.44 | 5.17 | 0.36 | 6.84 | 4.40 | -2.44 | 4.37 | -2.47 | 4.52 | -2.32 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 3.29 | 3.35 | 0.06 | 3.29 | -0.05 | 3.10 | -0.19 | 3.40 | 0.11 | 1.51 | 2.83 | 1.32 | 2.5 | 0.99 | 1.98 | 0.47 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 3.69 | 4.45 | 0.76 | 3.69 | 0.42 | 4.49 | 0.80 | 4.66 | 0.97 | 3.62 | 3.72 | 0.10 | 3.23 | -0.39 | 4.91 | 1.29 |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | 6.11 | 4.76 | -1.35 | 6.11 | -1.58 | 5.59 | -0.52 | 6.20 | 0.09 | 8.42 | 5.42 | -3.00 | 5.48 | -2.94 | 7.76 | -0.66 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 3.81 | 4.31 | 0.50 | 3.81 | 0.58 | 3.46 | -0.35 | 3.79 | -0.02 | 4.11 | 4.27 | 0.16 | 4.05 | -0.06 | 3.16 | -0.95 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 6.20 | 5.57 | -0.63 | 6.20 | -0.42 | 6.45 | 0.25 | 7.43 | 1.23 | 13.50 | 6.38 | -7.12 | 4.66 | -8.84 | 4.66 | -8.84 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 4.39 | 4.27 | -0.12 | 4.39 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 0.01 | 5.85 | 1.46 | 5.28 | 4.41 | -0.87 | 4.34 | -0.94 | 5.57 | 0.29 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 4.22 | 3.79 | -0.43 | 4.22 | -0.33 | 4.07 | -0.15 | 3.94 | -0.28 | 4.50 | 3.34 | -1.16 | 3.69 | -0.81 | 4.44 | -0.06 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 4.68 | 4.41 | -0.27 | 4.68 | -0.35 | 4.48 | -0.20 | 4.90 | 0.22 | 4.03 | 3.55 | -0.48 | 3.55 | -0.48 | 3.30 | -0.73 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 3.03 | 4.08 | 1.05 | 3.03 | 0.73 | 3.88 | 0.85 | 3.38 | 0.35 | 2.01 | 3.33 | 1.32 | 2.92 | 0.91 | 3.03 | 1.02 |
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | 4.25 | 3.41 | -0.84 | 4.25 | -1.08 | 3.10 | -1.15 | 3.49 | -0.76 | 6.92 | 3.90 | -3.02 | 3.94 | -2.98 | 4.16 | -2.76 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 3.12 | 3.63 | 0.51 | 3.12 | 0.29 | 3.74 | 0.62 | 3.32 | 0.20 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 0.27 | 1.32 | 0.19 | 2.28 | 1.15 |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | 4.67 | 4.45 | -0.22 | 4.67 | -0.43 | 4.40 | -0.27 | 6.44 | 1.77 | 4.60 | 4.92 | 0.32 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 4.66 | 0.06 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 4.98 | 4.69 | -0.29 | 4.98 | 0.11 | 4.61 | -0.37 | 5.39 | 0.41 | 3.68 | 5.16 | 1.48 | 5.58 | 1.90 | 4.83 | 1.15 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 5.52 | 4.86 | -0.66 | 5.52 | -0.42 | 4.75 | -0.77 | 7.08 | 1.56 | 5.75 | 5.34 | -0.41 | 5.8 | 0.05 | 5.27 | -0.48 |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | 3.64 | 5.06 | 1.42 | 3.64 | 1.43 | 4.84 | 1.20 | 5.60 | 1.96 | 3.97 | 5.26 | 1.29 | 5.28 | 1.31 | 4.83 | 0.86 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 4.07 | 4.63 | 0.56 | 4.07 | 0.42 | 4.03 | -0.04 | 3.94 | -0.13 | 2.38 | 4.14 | 1.76 | 3.87 | 1.49 | 3.69 | 1.31 |
Kyle Hendricks had an unsustainable 82.5 LOB%, but there are some things we can take away from the tables below that may help us understand why his ERA was so much below his estimators and why some of it may be sustainable because he’s beat his estimators by one-half run for his career in 596 innings now. The lowest Z-O-Swing% on the board means he excels at getting batters to take strikes and swing at balls more often than almost any other pitcher. His 83.9 mph aEV is second lowest on the board and best among qualified pitchers, justifying a .294 wOBA.
Lance McCullers had a .330 BABIP that boggles considering how many weak ground balls he generated, but in fact, his ground ball rate was only a few points below his 67.6 LOB% too. That was a bottom 20 mark in the league last year with a 100 inning qualifier. He and Nick Pivetta are the only two pitchers to exceed a strikeout per inning among those 20 pitchers.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 0.302 | 0.303 | 0.001 | 42.0% | 24.6% | 19.6% | 87.5% | 27.2% |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 0.298 | 0.292 | -0.006 | 47.4% | 18.8% | 8.9% | 88.0% | 35.9% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.303 | 0.307 | 0.004 | 45.2% | 21.7% | 10.1% | 84.9% | 37.6% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.280 | 0.276 | -0.004 | 49.9% | 22.2% | 7.4% | 87.5% | 35.3% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | 0.294 | 0.328 | 0.034 | 43.1% | 24.5% | 8.1% | 88.7% | 36.5% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.303 | 0.309 | 0.006 | 39.5% | 19.9% | 12.2% | 85.9% | 38.8% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.308 | 0.306 | -0.002 | 37.7% | 21.8% | 8.5% | 89.0% | 39.2% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.305 | 0.316 | 0.011 | 45.2% | 21.7% | 8.0% | 89.4% | 39.5% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.281 | 0.278 | -0.003 | 38.1% | 21.8% | 12.9% | 82.2% | 36.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.302 | 0.336 | 0.034 | 42.7% | 22.1% | 9.7% | 84.2% | 36.7% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.285 | 0.281 | -0.004 | 50.1% | 20.8% | 9.6% | 86.6% | 25.4% |
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | 0.300 | 0.330 | 0.030 | 61.3% | 19.2% | 3.2% | 90.1% | 32.1% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.296 | 0.247 | -0.049 | 58.8% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 81.6% | 41.6% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | 0.299 | 0.325 | 0.026 | 61.8% | 17.2% | 7.3% | 90.7% | 35.1% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.303 | 0.295 | -0.008 | 30.3% | 19.4% | 16.6% | 81.1% | 40.6% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.289 | 0.320 | 0.031 | 37.7% | 20.4% | 9.5% | 88.3% | 40.0% |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | 0.289 | 0.262 | -0.027 | 38.1% | 21.3% | 12.9% | 89.2% | 37.9% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.306 | 0.291 | -0.015 | 48.0% | 20.7% | 11.3% | 89.9% | 40.0% |
Lance McCullers had a 90.1 Z-Contact% last season. I’ll go ahead and call this the Surprise of the Day!
Luis Castillo had an extremely low BABIP that he probably can’t sustain despite some favorable indicators (LD rate is more descriptive than predictive). Surprise of the Day number two: Castillo did not have a pitch that got hitters to chase often last year. He got a lot of his misses in the strike zone. Which also may help explain the issues he had with hard contact in his first start if he’s lost some velocity.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McCarthy | Braves | 0.286 | 0.009 | 0.315 | 0.015 | 0.342 | 0.008 | -0.8 | 84.3 | 1.4 | 22.0 | 282 |
| Brandon Woodruff | Brewers | 0.297 | 0.021 | 0.303 | 0.034 | 0.282 | 0.051 | 0.2 | 82.9 | 3.0 | 28.9 | 135 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.289 | 0.005 | 0.304 | 0.020 | 0.270 | -0.014 | 0.0 | 87 | 7.4 | 33.9 | 516 |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 0.310 | 0.004 | 0.313 | 0.003 | 0.303 | 0.047 | 0.7 | 84.4 | 4.2 | 28.3 | 448 |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | 0.370 | 0.015 | 0.376 | 0.007 | 0.400 | 0.066 | 0.1 | 87.4 | 8.0 | 31.2 | 311 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.301 | 0.008 | 0.299 | 0.021 | 0.287 | -0.002 | 0.6 | 86.2 | 5.1 | 29.3 | 434 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.375 | 0.018 | 0.366 | 0.002 | -1.1 | 88.3 | 8.4 | 39.7 | 438 | ||
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.315 | 0.030 | 0.312 | 0.027 | 0.300 | 0.100 | -1.8 | 88.1 | 7.1 | 34.5 | 496 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.281 | 0.025 | 0.307 | 0.041 | 0.297 | 0.053 | -0.6 | 85.1 | 5.0 | 29.4 | 378 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.335 | 0.017 | 0.327 | 0.030 | 0.262 | 0.022 | -0.6 | 87.3 | 8.0 | 32.1 | 561 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.300 | -0.006 | 0.290 | -0.019 | 0.267 | -0.011 | -0.2 | 83.9 | 4.4 | 28.9 | 405 |
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | 0.288 | 0.021 | 0.245 | 0.050 | 0.332 | 0.026 | -0.7 | 86.6 | 4.6 | 32.5 | 329 |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | 0.257 | 0.022 | 0.254 | 0.029 | 0.205 | -0.009 | -1.2 | 84.7 | 3.5 | 28.8 | 226 |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | 0.328 | 0.017 | 0.337 | 0.035 | 0.339 | -0.017 | -1.5 | 87.2 | 5.0 | 34.5 | 525 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.299 | 0.039 | 0.285 | 0.053 | 0.283 | 0.001 | -1.9 | 86.6 | 7.0 | 29.0 | 556 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.352 | 0.006 | 0.344 | -0.022 | 0.354 | 0.005 | -1.2 | 88.4 | 8.5 | 38.0 | 568 |
| Parker Bridwell | Angels | 0.346 | -0.032 | 0.355 | -0.029 | 0.326 | -0.020 | -1.0 | 87.9 | 5.5 | 36.1 | 385 |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.313 | -0.001 | 0.306 | -0.013 | 0.326 | -0.034 | 0.9 | 85 | 5.2 | 29.4 | 463 |
Luis Castillo had a wOBA below .300, yet projected for something just above .250, by far the best xwOBA on the board.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Fourth tier pitchers will be listed today, but are probably not arms I’d be looking at on a stronger and/or larger slate.
Value Tier One
Luis Castillo (2) had a really great rookie season. He was throwing most of his pitches in the strike zone and nobody could touch him. His .257 xwOBA against is a surreal number. There was a velocity drop in his first start, which may have led to harder contact in the strike zone against him, but he still generated a 22.7 K-BB% and gets a major park upgrade against a lesser offense tonight. We should be vigilant, though probably not yet even concerned and it’s difficult to pass up his price tag below $9K tonight. While he threw just 85 pitches in his first start, he faced at least 25 batters in more than half of his starts last year.
Value Tier Two
“(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr (1) has all the upside in this fantastic spot. He’s more similar to Maeda results-wise than you’d realize even if they go about it in different ways. Another way they’re similar is in price tag and general workload limitations tonight. I still consider McCullers to have further upside beyond Maeda’s tonight though and he’s probably in a better spot too when you think about the Padres being a more strikeout prone offense. His prodigious use of the curveball should also make him one of the easier pitchers to evaluate using the RG PlateIQ tool today too. He had an amazing $3.7K price discrepancy between sites tonight, $1.5K more than anyone else.
Value Tier Three
Kyle Hendricks (4) is not in a great spot, but an improved one without Yelich. He’s strong against RHBs, misses enough bats, generally keeps the ball on the ground, proficiently induces weak contact, has the largest average workload on the board and is the third most expensive pitcher on the board, but at a cost below $9.5K on either site. He’s not the tremendous upside guy, but he’s steady with a generally strong floor.
Kenta Maeda (3) has all the stuff to be a top arm tonight, but faced more than the 21 batters he faced in his first start last week only 10 times in 25 starts last year. He did not exceed 24 batters at all after May 10th last year. That’s a significant issue when he’s the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9K) and one of two above $10K on DraftKings ($11.2K). He’ll need to be near perfect in order to cover the cost at that workload, but it may be possible to get in six strong innings in this spot.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Trevor Williams strikes out enough batters to useful and generates weak contact in a great park. The Reds have some pop from either side of the plate and Pittsburgh doesn’t punish LH power all that much, but it’s still not a bad spot at a reasonable price.
C.C. Sabathia is not usually the type of pitcher we covet here, especially in what may be a tough matchup at home against a powerful Baltimore lineup, but he’s essentially a league average pitcher with a cost below $8K and we’re going to have to reach a bit to include a fourth tier.
Brandon Woodruff doesn’t project to be a star, but may not be entirely useless as a secondary arm on DraftKings at a low cost against an offense that has struggled, though they did break out a bit last night. Left-handed Cubs’ bats should certainly be strongly considered against him.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.