Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, April 9th
Pitchers for all games will be listed on Monday with the 10-game main slate tonight being covered in the notes. Disappointing to lose Kluber to the lone early evening game, but we’re into the third time around for a lot of these guys now and still have a few of the top arms in the game on the board tonight.
Stats for 2018 are now being included. The remaining exceptions are for Statcast, team defense, and anywhere where you see full single season stats. In other words, the main table includes 2018 stats and anything that says last 14 or last 30 days is for 2018, but “season” is still 2017 (for pitchers only – opposing team stats are all 2018 now). This also gives us an addition point of comparison in the strikeout and ERA tables. Next week, everything should be updated to include 2018 after three times through the rotation.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | Phillies | -0.6 | 5.17 | 5.9 | 37.3% | 0.97 | 5.07 | 3.82 | Reds | 78 | 76 | 78 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 3.2 | 3.48 | 6.0 | 44.8% | 0.98 | 3.69 | 2.96 | White Sox | 84 | 119 | 106 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | -4.1 | 4.14 | 6.1 | 60.4% | 1.33 | 4.02 | 3.65 | Rockies | 59 | 98 | 75 |
| Cody Reed | Reds | 4.8 | 4.74 | 4.5 | 53.7% | 0.97 | 2.35 | Phillies | 166 | 142 | 108 | |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.2 | 3.07 | 6.9 | 44.7% | 1.06 | 2.30 | 3.01 | Tigers | 98 | 89 | 73 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | -1.8 | 5.36 | 5.2 | 37.8% | 0.93 | 5.67 | 5.32 | Diamondbacks | 85 | 139 | 103 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | -1.4 | 4.77 | 5.6 | 47.0% | 1.15 | 3.89 | 4.39 | Angels | 115 | 136 | 131 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | -4.7 | 4.29 | 5.8 | 34.2% | 0.99 | 4.81 | 2.78 | Blue Jays | 108 | 108 | 122 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | -2 | 4.68 | 5.2 | 48.7% | 1.06 | 6.71 | 5.15 | Indians | 22 | 70 | 39 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 3.7 | 4.01 | 5.2 | 48.1% | 1.15 | 3.98 | 4.00 | Rangers | 90 | 86 | 98 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.1 | 4.19 | 5.8 | 48.8% | 1.01 | 4.24 | 4.77 | Cubs | 102 | 90 | |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | -1.3 | 4.12 | 5.9 | 45.1% | 0.99 | 3.87 | 2.30 | Orioles | 28 | 153 | 99 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.5 | 4.41 | 5.9 | 40.4% | 1.04 | 4.04 | 3.11 | Mariners | 117 | 111 | 121 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | -0.1 | 4.52 | 5.4 | 49.1% | 0.92 | 4.71 | 4.37 | Cardinals | 40 | 93 | 88 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | -0.9 | 3.72 | 5.7 | 45.7% | 1.33 | 3.50 | 3.32 | Padres | 66 | 83 | 87 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 3.6 | 5.00 | 5.4 | 44.8% | 0.88 | 5.39 | 4.42 | Mets | 103 | 128 | 102 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | -0.4 | 4.44 | 6.0 | 39.3% | 1.01 | 4.77 | 6.16 | Nationals | 75 | 122 | 100 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | -3.7 | 3.69 | 6.5 | 33.4% | 1.05 | 3.75 | 3.04 | Twins | 117 | 117 | 117 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.8 | 4.91 | 5.6 | 44.1% | 1.05 | 4.79 | 8.20 | Astros | 131 | 101 | 102 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 4.1 | 4.41 | 4.3 | 47.5% | 1.04 | 4.18 | 3.48 | Royals | 88 | 44 | 39 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.7 | 2.98 | 6.6 | 34.4% | 1.01 | 3.38 | 2.37 | Braves | 121 | 136 | 117 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | -0.1 | 5.01 | 5.8 | 38.3% | 0.98 | 5.03 | 4.00 | Rays | 67 | 76 | 70 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.8 | 3.26 | 5.2 | 36.8% | 0.92 | 3.26 | Brewers | 97 | 79 | 69 | |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 1.1 | 2.89 | 5.7 | 51.9% | 0.88 | 4.12 | 1.59 | Marlins | 87 | 55 | 52 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 3.9 | 4.77 | 5.7 | 57.2% | 1.01 | 4.14 | 6.87 | Pirates | 120 | 129 | 127 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | -4.6 | 3.84 | 5.9 | 54.6% | 0.93 | 3.18 | 4.33 | Giants | 126 | 109 | 122 |
Dylan Bundy has busted out of the gate like 2017 never ended, his early season dominance including a start in Houston too. Continued use of his slider 25% of the time so far has allowed him to punish RHBs for a .156 wOBA and 38.5 K% (26 batters faced so far). The Blue Jays aren’t as potent as they used to be and most of the lineup still runs right-handed, the major exceptions being Smoak, Granderson and Solarte. They have a 27.7 K% vs RHP so far.
Garrett Richards struggled early in his last start, allowing a two-run shot in the first inning to Jose Ramirez, then settled down and looked great for the remaining four plus innings, striking out nine of 24 Indians overall. His walk rate is up a bit and that’s a concern in as much as it could limit him going deeper into games, but aside from some park concerns, his stuff should play well here. He’s managed contact well throughout the healthy portion of his career and his velocity is up a mile per hour so far (97.1 average). The Rangers have some strikeouts in them.
Jakob Junis shut down the Tigers for seven innings in his first start, allowing just three hits and a walk with six strikeouts. He throws tons of sliders and may not have much a platoon busting pitch, but hasn’t had too many issues with LHBs so far (.328 wOBA). A bit of a fly ball pitcher, Kansas City should help him keep the ball in the yard. Let’s not get over-whelmed by one start against one of the worst projected teams in baseball this year and his 88.7 mph aEV last year is highest on the main board, there’s a decent chance we’re looking at something of a league average pitcher here with the upside for something a bit more. Lack of a strong third pitch may be a cause for some issues multiple times through the order so far.
Jon Gray intentionally modifies his plan of attack to fit the park he is pitching in that day. At Coors, that usually means more ground balls, fewer strikeouts (56.3% & 21.7% vs 43.3% & 26.1% last year). While that may keep the ball in the yard more often at Coors, it gives daily fantasy players less upside. The good news is that he’s been able to manage contact well home or away (hard hit rate below 30%). The Padres continue to strike out a ton though (got seven of them in his last start, seven shutout innings in San Diego), which enhances the upside somewhat.
Justin Verlander struggled enough in his last start (two HRs) that he didn’t make it through six innings, but he still was able to strike out nine of 25 batters. As you can see by the difference in the pitchers they acquire, the Astros really emphasize strikeouts and that’s great for daily fantasy players. They generally don’t care if it limits the number of innings a pitcher pitches because they have a great bullpen with several pitchers able to go multiple innings. He and Scherzer are the only two pitchers on the board to average significantly more than six innings over the last two calendar years though. The Twins have been a proficient offense so far, but if there is one thing we can expect in Minnesota tonight, it’s COLD!
Max Scherzer allowed five runs (just two earned) in five innings against these Braves in his last start. He still has struck out 17 of 48 batters faced this year with an 18.6 SwStr% and the Braves have just a 16.5 K% vs RHP this year. They’ve been really good! You still side with Scherzer here.
Noah Syndergaard struggled in his last start. The struggling being that he didn’t make it past four innings, but still only allowed two runs and struck out seven of 18 Phillies faced on a cold New York afternoon where his defense did not help. In the previous start, he struck out 10 of 24 Cardinals, but allowed two HRs on pitches that had no business leaving the yard or even being put in play with any authority. (Thank you to twitter follower @Bart41CPA for the screenshot assists.) Mouths should be watering for what he has the potential to do to this Marlins’ lineup.
Zack Godley combined a 26.6 K% with a strong 55.3 GB% and 27.7 Z-O-Swing% in 2017. Statcast supported a wOBA below .290. The lone issue was that 37.6% of his contact was above a 95 mph exit velocity. He struck out just three of 26 Dodgers in his first start, but still went seven strong innings with with a 52.4 GB% in Arizona in his first start. The Giants are off to a strong start with the bats, but this is one of the largest park upgrades available and should be a strong spot for him.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Jose Urena (.249 – 79% – 13.1) looked like he didn’t belong on a major league roster, let alone starting on Opening Day in his first start. He walked four Cubs, hit a few more and allowed two HRs, one on the first pitch of the season. Then he four hit Boston for seven innings with seven strikeouts and a single walk. You hear a lot about how great his stuff is and each of his non-four-seam pitches had a double digit whiff rate last season, but that did not lead to a decent strikeout rate last year. His SwStr% has been below 10% in each of his first two starts this year. There may be something here and the advantage he may have is that the Mets played until midnight in Washington last night and could be on a downer in Miami after the big sweep, but neither that, nor his previous history are anything that would make us bank on a big start here. Even at a low cost, there’s significant risk here as the Mets are a patient bunch. He had the odd combination of one of the lowest aEVs and highest rate of barrels on the board last year.
Ben Lively (.280 – 74.2% – 10.4) may have struck out five of 25 batters in his first start of the season, but with a 7.7 SwStr% very similar to his 7.2 SwStr% last season. He does have the lowest aEV (84.7 mph) on the board for last year (for anyone with more than one start), which drops his xwOBA all the way down to league average. The Reds have started slowly, but there’s not enough upside here.
Lance Lynn (.244 – 79% – 14.2) walked six Pirates in his Twins’ debut. He was a strong contact manager last season and does significantly better against RHBs. That and the park conditions should favor him against the Astros, but probably not enough to the point where we should actually consider using him against this offense. Maybe players should just be more careful in rostering bats against him.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
J.A. Happ has faced two potentially lefty-mashing offenses this season so far (Yankees and White Sox), allowing three HRs, but striking out nine of 24 batters in the latter affair. Baltimore could play similarly here. They’re a righty-centric lineup that hasn’t played as well as you’d think against LHP in recent seasons, but there’s no reason that they shouldn’t mash LHP with Machado, Schoop and company. He may generate a few strikeouts too here, but the risk reward ratio doesn’t look fantastic here with higher upside pitchers in his price range.
Miles Mikolas stunk for the Rangers in 90+ innings for the Rangers from 2012 to 2014. All 10 of his starts came in his last season with them and they weren’t good either. He went to Japan last year and ran a 22 K-BB% with a 58 GB%. We should probably pay some attention to him this year. He struck out five of 25 Brewers in his first start and gets a major park upgrade against this tough offense, facing them at home this time around. However, he also generated a 36.8 GB% with three HRs and 40 Hard-Soft% in that start. Though they have not been so far in most other games and have a 29.6 K% against RHP, the Brewers should be good this year. There’s not necessarily a total lack of upside here at a reasonable cost, but it should probably be lower.
Jhoulys Chacin was bad in his first start and not much better in his second against the same Cardinals he’ll be facing tonight. The good news is that he’ll get a significant park bump in the rematch and this St Louis offense hasn’t really done much overall against too many other pitchers this year and have uncharacteristically struck out a ton. He’s had major platoon issues in the past, but RHBs have a 52.4 Hard% against him through two starts so far.
Marco Gonzales struck out just two Giants and allowed as many HRs in San Francisco in his first start. He faces a weaker lineup in a similarly power suppressing park tonight, though Kansas City plays much more run friendly. That he pitched into the seventh inning in his first start is a minor victory, not having recorded an out in the sixth inning in any start last year.
Doug Fister returned to the majors with increased velocity last season (two miles per hour), allowing all of his pitches to play up and look like 2013 all over again (when he was good). He’s actually added an additional mile per hour this year so far, the second hardest average velocity of his career, but has been held to 85 pitches or less in each of his first two starts. He’s one of many of tonight’s pitchers with a significant platoon issue. The good news is the lineup he’ll likely face a predominantly right-handed lineup. The bad news is that the Angels have been one of the top offenses in baseball through a week and a half and now they get a major park upgrade.
Cody Reed has not pitched yet this year. He threw just 17.2 major league innings last year (one start) and has a career 12.3 BB% in 65.1 innings. He has a 12.7 BB% in 107.1 AAA innings last year.
Derek Holland gets absolutely torched by RHBs. It will be interesting to see to what degree San Francisco can temper that. His Statcast numbers for last season are just about all worst on the board.
Clayton Richard is going to make you make a difficult decision about Charlie Blackmon today. He has a league average strikeout rate and 64.3 GB% for his career against LHBs. RHBs have a .354 wOBA.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 14.4% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | Season | 14.0% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | Home | 16.2% | 5.4% | 22.5% | 4.0% | L14Days | 20.0% | 4.0% | ||
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Yrs | 28.1% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 20.2% | Season | 29.2% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 26.2% | Road | 26.2% | 7.8% | 18.0% | 24.2% | L14Days | 29.8% | 8.5% | 22.2% | 13.8% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Yrs | 16.6% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 13.9% | Season | 17.6% | 6.9% | 19.4% | 17.7% | Road | 16.5% | 7.4% | 24.6% | 18.0% | L14Days | 19.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | |
| Cody Reed | Reds | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 12.3% | 27.8% | 22.4% | Season | 21.5% | 24.1% | 27.3% | 16.3% | Road | 34.5% | 10.3% | 18.7% | L14Days | |||||
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.1% | 5.7% | 12.1% | 6.8% | Season | 34.1% | 4.6% | 13.5% | 4.5% | Home | 36.5% | 4.9% | 8.6% | -4.8% | L14Days | 25.9% | 5.6% | 15.4% | 18.9% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 15.8% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 17.8% | Season | 16.6% | 12.0% | 17.6% | 20.8% | Home | 18.0% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 18.7% | L14Days | 19.1% | 14.3% | 7.2% | |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 12.7% | Season | 21.2% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 13.1% | Home | 21.2% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 21.1% | L14Days | 19.5% | 12.2% | 29.6% | |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 13.4% | Season | 21.8% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 18.9% | Home | 20.8% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 16.9% | L14Days | 29.4% | 5.9% | 21.2% | |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 15.0% | Season | 19.4% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 12.8% | Road | 13.7% | 15.4% | 18.2% | 10.0% | L14Days | 12.0% | 8.0% | 25.0% | |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.5% | Season | 25.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.7% | Road | 21.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 3.0% | L14Days | 27.1% | 14.6% | 37.5% | -11.1% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.3% | 4.5% | 15.7% | 17.6% | Season | 16.7% | 4.6% | 15.8% | 18.2% | Road | 17.5% | 5.2% | 18.3% | 22.4% | L14Days | 15.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 28.6% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 10.4% | Season | 22.7% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 6.4% | Road | 23.4% | 5.8% | 11.3% | -0.5% | L14Days | 31.8% | 4.6% | 37.5% | 18.5% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 5.8% | 11.6% | 19.0% | Season | 19.0% | 5.9% | 12.3% | 19.8% | Home | 21.8% | 6.2% | 11.4% | 21.3% | L14Days | 24.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 19.3% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | Season | 20.0% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 8.3% | Road | 18.3% | 9.5% | 17.6% | 11.5% | L14Days | 13.0% | 8.7% | 37.5% | 28.6% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 25.3% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 9.9% | Season | 24.3% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 5.7% | Home | 21.7% | 6.9% | 12.1% | 2.2% | L14Days | 23.4% | 6.4% | 12.5% | |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 15.7% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 12.8% | Season | 15.6% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 13.4% | Home | 14.1% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 13.5% | L14Days | 18.4% | 10.2% | 18.2% | 18.7% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 7.3% | 12.1% | 12.4% | Season | 18.6% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 9.3% | Road | 19.8% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 9.2% | L14Days | 12.8% | 15.4% | 30.8% | 29.6% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | L2 Yrs | 27.1% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 13.4% | Season | 25.8% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 17.0% | Road | 27.9% | 7.8% | 15.3% | 19.0% | L14Days | 29.2% | 6.3% | 13.3% | 16.7% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | L2 Yrs | 19.6% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 8.3% | Season | 19.7% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 8.1% | Home | 18.7% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 2.3% | L14Days | 14.3% | 28.6% | 33.3% | 16.6% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 5.3% | 20.0% | 8.7% | Season | 17.3% | 6.0% | 17.8% | 5.7% | Road | 18.3% | 7.6% | 19.2% | 10.4% | L14Days | 8.7% | 40.0% | 28.6% | |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 33.0% | 6.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | Season | 34.4% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 7.0% | Home | 34.2% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 5.5% | L14Days | 35.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 17.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 15.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 13.6% | Season | 14.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 16.1% | Home | 17.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 17.8% | L14Days | 16.0% | 8.0% | 50.0% | 15.7% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 42.9% | 40.0% | Season | Home | L14Days | 20.0% | 42.9% | 40.0% | ||||||||||
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 29.3% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | Season | 27.4% | 2.4% | 13.9% | Road | 18.6% | 7.0% | 12.5% | L14Days | 40.5% | 4.8% | 25.0% | |||
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 11.8% | 16.3% | 8.8% | Season | 19.0% | 12.2% | 22.0% | 7.0% | Home | 18.6% | 11.9% | 28.6% | 12.7% | L14Days | 14.8% | 22.2% | -11.7% | |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 8.0% | 15.9% | 14.0% | Season | 26.3% | 8.5% | 14.7% | 13.6% | Road | 26.5% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 9.5% | L14Days | 11.5% | 3.9% | 18.2% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Road | 20.1% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 8.9% | RH | 22.6% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | L7Days | 20.1% | 11.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 24.1% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 2.7% | RH | 22.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 13.9% | L7Days | 27.8% | 7.9% | 14.0% | 8.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 26.1% | 8.1% | 13.6% | -6.9% | LH | 30.3% | 12.3% | 25.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 3.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.2% | 15.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | LH | 18.3% | 21.1% | 16.7% | 2.3% | L7Days | 26.7% | 12.6% | 9.8% | -3.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.8% | RH | 16.7% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 16.0% | L7Days | 19.5% | 9.7% | 1.8% | 10.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.9% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 26.7% | LH | 22.0% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 22.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 21.9% |
| Angels | Road | 14.2% | 2.5% | 7.8% | 13.4% | RH | 16.7% | 6.5% | 13.7% | 20.6% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.4% | 19.7% | 25.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 23.2% | 9.8% | 16.7% | 20.2% | RH | 27.7% | 8.8% | 20.3% | 15.9% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.4% | 16.1% | 22.3% |
| Indians | Home | 18.8% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 17.8% | LH | 17.4% | 12.8% | 7.4% | 18.3% | L7Days | 23.5% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 19.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 22.0% | RH | 22.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 23.0% | L7Days | 17.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 19.2% |
| Cubs | Home | RH | 23.5% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 23.5% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | ||||
| Orioles | Home | 27.8% | 12.0% | 6.3% | -3.0% | LH | 22.9% | 11.5% | 21.7% | 16.1% | L7Days | 28.3% | 7.6% | 16.7% | 8.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.3% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 10.5% | RH | 22.0% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 10.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 10.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 28.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 15.4% | RH | 25.7% | 4.7% | 18.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 6.0% | 15.9% | 23.2% |
| Padres | Road | 29.6% | 7.0% | 0.0% | -4.3% | RH | 25.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.8% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 10.0% |
| Mets | Road | 30.2% | 11.1% | 18.5% | 4.1% | RH | 21.1% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 27.5% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 6.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 22.4% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 16.8% | RH | 17.9% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 17.7% | L7Days | 21.6% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 16.1% |
| Twins | Home | 24.0% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 22.0% | RH | 24.3% | 8.6% | 17.2% | 16.9% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 19.0% |
| Astros | Road | 24.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 30.8% | RH | 24.3% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.7% | L7Days | 26.5% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 4.5% |
| Royals | Home | 9.1% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 16.4% | LH | 19.1% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 15.7% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 10.7% |
| Braves | Road | 13.3% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 7.7% | RH | 16.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.5% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 12.4% |
| Rays | Road | 26.6% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 8.0% | RH | 24.5% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 11.2% | L7Days | 26.6% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 8.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 16.9% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 17.4% | RH | 29.6% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 16.0% | L7Days | 29.3% | 6.0% | 13.8% | 6.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.2% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 1.0% | RH | 25.7% | 8.4% | 4.1% | -5.3% | L7Days | 28.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 18.6% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.6% | RH | 13.3% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 13.2% | L7Days | 13.0% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 13.9% |
| Giants | Home | 20.6% | 5.3% | 20.0% | 18.2% | RH | 23.0% | 4.8% | 14.7% | 18.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 5.3% | 20.0% | 18.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 14.0% | 7.2% | 1.94 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 2.60 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 29.2% | 13.4% | 2.18 | 29.8% | 14.7% | 2.03 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 17.6% | 8.6% | 2.05 | 19.6% | 10.4% | 1.88 |
| Cody Reed | Reds | 21.5% | 13.3% | 1.62 | |||
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 34.1% | 15.6% | 2.19 | 25.9% | 12.3% | 2.11 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 16.6% | 7.1% | 2.34 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 2.17 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 21.2% | 7.6% | 2.79 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 2.64 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 21.8% | 11.4% | 1.91 | 29.4% | 16.7% | 1.76 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 19.4% | 9.6% | 2.02 | 12.0% | 9.6% | 1.25 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 25.0% | 12.7% | 1.97 | 27.1% | 14.1% | 1.92 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 16.7% | 8.4% | 1.99 | 15.2% | 6.7% | 2.27 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 22.7% | 9.5% | 2.39 | 31.8% | 13.8% | 2.30 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 19.0% | 8.9% | 2.13 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 2.09 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 20.0% | 7.9% | 2.53 | 13.0% | 8.8% | 1.48 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 24.3% | 8.8% | 2.76 | 23.4% | 10.6% | 2.21 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 15.6% | 8.2% | 1.90 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 2.11 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 18.6% | 9.4% | 1.98 | 12.8% | 8.3% | 1.54 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 25.8% | 10.7% | 2.41 | 29.2% | 12.4% | 2.35 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.19 | 14.3% | 10.5% | 1.36 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 17.3% | 9.1% | 1.90 | 8.7% | 7.6% | 1.14 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 34.4% | 15.5% | 2.22 | 35.4% | 18.6% | 1.90 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.18 | 16.0% | 11.2% | 1.43 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 20.0% | 7.7% | 2.60 | |||
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 27.4% | 13.9% | 1.97 | 40.5% | 14.7% | 2.76 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.92 | 14.8% | 7.6% | 1.95 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 26.3% | 13.3% | 1.98 | 11.5% | 7.3% | 1.58 |
Jon Gray is the interesting arm here, made more interesting by his admission that he pitches different depending on the park. I’d love to see home and away SwStr% for him. I’m inclined to believe last year’s 8.8% overall was a bit of a fluke as he’s previously been higher and has been in double digits in each of his starts this year (both on the road though).
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 4.26 | 5.27 | 1.01 | 4.26 | 1.32 | 4.97 | 0.71 | 5.63 | 1.37 | 3.18 | 3.82 | 0.64 | 4.68 | 1.50 | 2.89 | -0.29 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 4.07 | 3.44 | -0.63 | 4.07 | -0.72 | 3.40 | -0.67 | 3.28 | -0.79 | 6.55 | 2.96 | -3.59 | 2.8 | -3.75 | 3.98 | -2.57 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 4.79 | 4.06 | -0.73 | 4.79 | -1.03 | 4.23 | -0.56 | 5.78 | 0.99 | 4.50 | 3.65 | -0.85 | 3.37 | -1.13 | 2.40 | -2.10 |
| Cody Reed | Reds | 5.09 | 6.46 | 1.37 | 5.09 | 0.48 | 6.67 | 1.58 | 5.91 | 0.82 | |||||||
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 2.25 | 2.68 | 0.43 | 2.25 | 0.27 | 2.50 | 0.25 | 1.99 | -0.26 | 2.40 | 3.01 | 0.61 | 3.06 | 0.66 | 3.54 | 1.14 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 6.20 | 5.57 | -0.63 | 6.20 | -0.42 | 6.45 | 0.25 | 7.43 | 1.23 | 5.40 | 5.32 | -0.08 | 5.58 | 0.18 | 3.27 | -2.13 |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 4.88 | 4.44 | -0.44 | 4.88 | -0.70 | 3.98 | -0.90 | 4.87 | -0.01 | 3.12 | 4.39 | 1.27 | 4.3 | 1.18 | 3.30 | 0.18 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 4.24 | 4.45 | 0.21 | 4.24 | 0.53 | 4.38 | 0.14 | 3.72 | -0.52 | 0.69 | 2.78 | 2.09 | 3.01 | 2.32 | 1.46 | 0.77 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 5.66 | 5.09 | -0.57 | 5.66 | -0.62 | 4.64 | -1.02 | 5.36 | -0.30 | 1.35 | 5.15 | 3.80 | 5.02 | 3.67 | 3.07 | 1.72 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 2.28 | 3.60 | 1.32 | 2.28 | 1.04 | 2.43 | 0.15 | 2.65 | 0.37 | 5.06 | 4.00 | -1.06 | 3.97 | -1.09 | 6.54 | 1.48 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 4.14 | 4.45 | 0.31 | 4.14 | 0.05 | 4.46 | 0.32 | 5.44 | 1.30 | 6.10 | 4.77 | -1.33 | 4.84 | -1.26 | 4.13 | -1.97 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 3.53 | 4.11 | 0.58 | 3.53 | 0.41 | 3.76 | 0.23 | 3.73 | 0.20 | 5.40 | 2.30 | -3.10 | 2.33 | -3.07 | 5.07 | -0.33 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.30 | 4.49 | 0.19 | 4.30 | 0.47 | 4.55 | 0.25 | 4.80 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 1.78 | 1.78 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 3.89 | 4.63 | 0.74 | 3.89 | 0.65 | 4.26 | 0.37 | 4.14 | 0.25 | 7.00 | 4.37 | -2.63 | 4.69 | -2.31 | 7.74 | 0.74 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 3.67 | 3.74 | 0.07 | 3.67 | -0.22 | 3.18 | -0.49 | 3.51 | -0.16 | 2.45 | 3.32 | 0.87 | 3.34 | 0.89 | 2.16 | -0.29 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 3.82 | 5.19 | 1.37 | 3.82 | 1.47 | 5.20 | 1.38 | 5.39 | 1.57 | 4.91 | 4.42 | -0.49 | 5.06 | 0.15 | 5.98 | 1.07 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.49 | 4.89 | 0.40 | 4.49 | 0.47 | 4.95 | 0.46 | 3.71 | -0.78 | 10.13 | 6.16 | -3.97 | 6.79 | -3.34 | 10.95 | 0.82 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 3.36 | 4.05 | 0.69 | 3.36 | 0.81 | 3.84 | 0.48 | 3.12 | -0.24 | 2.31 | 3.04 | 0.73 | 3.56 | 1.25 | 3.93 | 1.62 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 3.43 | 4.85 | 1.42 | 3.43 | 1.32 | 4.82 | 1.39 | 4.52 | 1.09 | 11.25 | 8.20 | -3.05 | 7.15 | -4.10 | 9.32 | -1.93 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 6.08 | 4.48 | -1.60 | 6.08 | -1.62 | 5.06 | -1.02 | 5.87 | -0.21 | 4.26 | 3.48 | -0.78 | 3.58 | -0.68 | 6.54 | 2.28 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 2.51 | 2.98 | 0.47 | 2.51 | 0.77 | 2.90 | 0.39 | 2.33 | -0.18 | 1.64 | 2.37 | 0.73 | 3.03 | 1.39 | 1.98 | 0.34 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 4.62 | 5.39 | 0.77 | 4.62 | 1.03 | 4.88 | 0.26 | 5.25 | 0.63 | 9.00 | 4.00 | -5.00 | 3.83 | -5.17 | 7.87 | -1.13 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 6.35 | 3.26 | -3.09 | 3.09 | -3.26 | 8.19 | 1.84 | |||||||||
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 2.97 | 2.74 | -0.23 | 2.97 | -0.49 | 1.31 | -1.66 | 3.85 | 0.88 | 5.40 | 1.59 | -3.81 | 1.43 | -3.97 | 2.87 | -2.53 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 4.69 | 4.78 | 0.09 | 4.69 | -0.42 | 4.94 | 0.25 | 4.78 | 0.09 | 1.50 | 6.87 | 5.37 | 6.18 | 4.68 | 4.74 | 3.24 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 3.37 | 3.67 | 0.30 | 3.37 | -0.05 | 3.41 | 0.04 | 3.21 | -0.16 | 1.29 | 4.33 | 3.04 | 4.09 | 2.80 | 2.64 | 1.35 |
Clayton Richard is the only pitcher on the main slate (except Marco Gonzales in a smaller sample) whose estimators were significantly lower than his ERA last season and he pitches at Coors. His DRA goes in the exact opposite direction too.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 0.304 | 0.280 | -0.024 | 38.2% | 17.7% | 12.0% | 89.8% | 36.6% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.283 | 0.325 | 0.042 | 42.0% | 22.0% | 9.4% | 81.6% | 36.8% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.299 | 0.351 | 0.052 | 59.2% | 21.0% | 5.6% | 89.6% | 36.1% |
| Cody Reed | Reds | 0.296 | 0.200 | -0.096 | 60.5% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 80.7% | 43.5% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.303 | 0.267 | -0.036 | 44.5% | 22.1% | 11.5% | 82.4% | 28.1% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.308 | 0.306 | -0.002 | 37.7% | 21.8% | 8.5% | 89.0% | 39.2% |
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 0.289 | 0.301 | 0.012 | 50.6% | 20.5% | 7.9% | 89.1% | 25.8% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.302 | 0.273 | -0.029 | 32.8% | 20.0% | 11.9% | 85.2% | 36.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.320 | 0.329 | 0.009 | 44.9% | 20.2% | 7.8% | 87.3% | 35.0% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 0.289 | 0.233 | -0.056 | 54.2% | 16.7% | 9.5% | 88.5% | 39.7% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.306 | 0.299 | -0.007 | 45.7% | 23.4% | 8.7% | 91.3% | 35.1% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.303 | 0.302 | -0.001 | 46.9% | 19.4% | 8.2% | 85.1% | 36.0% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.303 | 0.294 | -0.009 | 40.1% | 19.7% | 7.4% | 87.4% | 38.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.298 | 0.272 | -0.026 | 49.1% | 18.6% | 12.0% | 89.6% | 35.8% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.305 | 0.336 | 0.031 | 48.9% | 22.5% | 11.1% | 90.1% | 32.5% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.298 | 0.249 | -0.049 | 43.1% | 18.7% | 9.0% | 88.9% | 39.3% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.302 | 0.281 | -0.021 | 40.0% | 20.2% | 9.3% | 86.0% | 36.2% |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.300 | 0.271 | -0.029 | 33.5% | 23.8% | 9.8% | 85.4% | 38.4% |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.296 | 0.244 | -0.052 | 44.0% | 19.8% | 11.6% | 82.4% | 42.4% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.283 | 0.383 | 0.100 | 45.4% | 22.7% | 11.1% | 88.3% | 38.8% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.287 | 0.245 | -0.042 | 36.5% | 16.9% | 11.8% | 79.5% | 33.7% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 0.281 | 0.289 | 0.008 | 36.2% | 19.6% | 8.8% | 90.5% | 35.2% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.298 | |||||||
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.319 | 0.337 | 0.018 | 57.6% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 90.3% | 30.1% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.285 | 0.283 | -0.002 | 58.1% | 20.2% | 3.3% | 88.0% | 40.7% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.294 | 0.280 | -0.014 | 55.3% | 18.5% | 7.8% | 88.8% | 27.7% |
Dylan Bundy doesn’t have any indicators that jump out at you, but his extreme fly ball rate should make an 11.9 IFFB% stand out slightly more.
Jon Gray has a surprisingly high Z-Contact%. As with his SwStr%, I’d like to see home and away.
Max Scherzer has the elite BABIP profile and I’ll probably continue to say that here every time he pitches unless something drastically changes this year.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | Phillies | 0.324 | 0.023 | 0.330 | 0.021 | 0.312 | 0.019 | 0.8 | 84.7 | 5.6 | 27.8 | 288 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 0.292 | 0.019 | 0.315 | 0.022 | 0.299 | 0.092 | -0.9 | 89 | 5.4 | 37.9 | 538 |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | 0.320 | 0.043 | 0.331 | 0.052 | 0.316 | 0.027 | -1.8 | 86.7 | 4.4 | 33.1 | 640 |
| Cody Reed | Reds | 0.353 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.014 | 0.345 | -0.001 | -1.0 | 84.2 | 4.7 | 34.9 | 43 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.248 | -0.004 | 0.212 | 0.010 | 0.240 | -0.014 | -0.1 | 85.3 | 5.5 | 27.8 | 471 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.375 | 0.018 | 0.366 | 0.002 | -1.1 | 88.3 | 8.4 | 39.7 | 438 | ||
| Doug Fister | Rangers | 0.310 | 0.008 | 0.313 | 0.007 | 0.282 | 0.038 | 0.4 | 85.8 | 4.9 | 34.3 | 268 |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | 0.316 | -0.003 | 0.310 | -0.007 | 0.341 | 0.009 | -1.1 | 88.1 | 7.8 | 35.2 | 488 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.338 | 0.022 | 0.389 | 0.056 | 0.255 | -0.062 | -0.3 | 86.7 | 6.1 | 31.0 | 297 |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 0.274 | -0.052 | 0.259 | -0.028 | 0.282 | -0.054 | -0.8 | 85.7 | 4.1 | 28.4 | 74 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.333 | 0.001 | 0.348 | 0.004 | 0.312 | 0.023 | -0.9 | 87.9 | 7.0 | 35.8 | 611 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.288 | 0.019 | 0.267 | 0.022 | 0.256 | 0.011 | -0.5 | 85.7 | 4.3 | 30.8 | 438 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.338 | -0.009 | 0.337 | -0.019 | 0.353 | -0.020 | -0.6 | 88.7 | 6.2 | 35.4 | 308 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Brewers | 0.303 | 0.004 | 0.320 | 0.049 | 0.266 | 0.004 | -1.4 | 85.4 | 5.7 | 28.3 | 526 |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.296 | 0.018 | 0.274 | 0.015 | 0.275 | -0.004 | 0.7 | 85.2 | 4.1 | 30.6 | 317 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.340 | -0.019 | 0.337 | 0.001 | 0.328 | 0.007 | -0.6 | 85.4 | 8.1 | 28.7 | 533 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.320 | 0.014 | 0.294 | 0.018 | 0.299 | 0.031 | 0.0 | 86.3 | 6.2 | 29.9 | 582 |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 0.309 | -0.018 | 0.309 | 0.012 | 0.242 | -0.037 | -0.9 | 87.3 | 7.2 | 35.4 | 554 |
| Lance Lynn | Twins | 0.310 | -0.001 | 0.310 | -0.018 | 0.307 | 0.029 | -0.8 | 85.7 | 5.6 | 26.4 | 535 |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | 0.348 | 0.051 | 0.342 | 0.068 | 0.267 | 0.043 | -0.4 | 87.7 | 5.7 | 34.8 | 141 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.241 | 0.009 | 0.244 | 0.028 | 0.252 | 0.016 | -0.6 | 85.7 | 5.4 | 28.3 | 446 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 0.336 | 0.007 | 0.306 | 0.004 | 0.359 | 0.004 | -1.1 | 87.8 | 6.7 | 35.0 | 523 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | |||||||||||
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.260 | -0.007 | 0.327 | -0.048 | -0.4 | 86.2 | 3.5 | 31.4 | 86 | ||
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.326 | 0.017 | 0.345 | 0.038 | 0.324 | -0.005 | -0.4 | 85.4 | 5.3 | 31.4 | 430 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.288 | 0.001 | 0.284 | 0.017 | 0.298 | -0.003 | -0.9 | 86.2 | 5.4 | 37.6 | 404 |
Dylan Bundy has allowed some of the hardest contact on the board, but still profiles for a league average or slightly better wOBA.
Jon Gray has one of the lowest rate of barrels on the board. Here, we can see that his home wOBA and xwOBA was actually lower at home last year.
Max Scherzer had a ridiculous xwOBA last season and his home mark was actually 28 points better than his actual.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This is a strong board. Plenty at the top and a lot of high upside mid-range arms if you’re attacking high priced Coors bats.
Value Tier One
Dylan Bundy (4) is still severely under-priced. Some concerns remain for an extreme fly ball pitcher in a difficult park, but he’s been a beast against RHBs since increasing the slider usage above 20% post-All-Star break last year.
Noah Syndergaard (1) should chew the Marlins up, spit them out. This should be absolute destruction…theoretically. He’s in Scherzer’s price range today.
Value Tier Two
Justin Verlander (2t) was a bit less awesome than he’d previously been in a Houston uniform in his last start. In fact, he allowed even two runs only one other team since the trade and he’d never failed to finish six innings. They’re not all going to be great, but the Astros emphasize strikeouts and he’s been doing a lot of that. Cold conditions in neutral to favorable park could help cut down on the home run concerns for an extreme fly ball pitcher tonight.
Zack Godley (5) isn’t much more expensive in San Francisco than he was at home against the Dodgers. His results should dictate a $10K pitcher here and he nearly is on DraftKings. He’s $1.4K cheaper on FanDuel.
Max Scherzer (2t) struggled a bit in his last start and the Braves could be a frustrating offense to roster pitchers against this year. It’s still difficult to project him not being a top arm on any given night, it just may knock his potential value down slightly.
Value Tier Three
Garrett Richards (6) has some control issues and that could lead to a potential three run jack putting him in the hole in a difficult park, but his strong contact management skills combined with bat missing ability neutralize some of the concerns with a favorable price tag. In fact, his $1.6K price differential is the largest of the day. He costs just $6.7K on DraftKings. Bump him up a tier there.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jakob Junis carries an average price tag and if he is just a league average pitcher, pushing him any further up this list might be too optimistic. I am a bit higher on him than that, but really don’t have the results to justify it yet and, as mentioned, don’t want to get too hyped about a single start against a bad team. The Mariners should certainly present more of a challenge, Cruz or not.
Jon Gray is a bit cheaper than expected at under $8K on either site. Coors is a monster, but he’s shown an ability to pitch there, even if it is with less upside. The thought is that the Padres should provide a few additional strikeouts above average here.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.