Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, August 6th
Right away, I have a feeling that we’re going to have a few omissions tonight that some other people are going to like. (Hint: They’ve both been traded recently.) It’s not even that using these pitchers is terrible and it’s not even that there are so many high upside pitchers, but this looks like a quality board with some depth for a 10 game slate.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.8 | 3.53 | 5.9 | 51.0% | 0.91 | 3.65 | 3.62 | Giants | 105 | 94 | 102 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 9.1 | 4.36 | 5.9 | 47.1% | 1.04 | 4.47 | 3.30 | Royals | 82 | 83 | 82 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | -6.4 | 4.22 | 5.9 | 41.6% | 0.91 | 4.01 | 4.08 | Astros | 117 | 108 | 127 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | -5.3 | 5.22 | 5.0 | 52.4% | 0.96 | 4.27 | 6.24 | Yankees | 101 | 107 | 71 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | -2.4 | 4.95 | 5.0 | 42.1% | 0.91 | 4.73 | 3.52 | Mets | 77 | 93 | 74 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | -8.1 | 4.30 | 5.7 | 48.5% | 1.00 | 4.11 | 3.32 | Diamondbacks | 95 | 87 | 123 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.9 | 4.34 | 5.8 | 40.7% | 1.04 | 4.58 | 4.84 | Cubs | 102 | 107 | 125 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | -3.1 | 4.16 | 5.6 | 45.7% | 1.35 | 3.97 | 4.87 | Rockies | 90 | 79 | 65 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | -1.8 | 4.74 | 5.6 | 51.5% | 1.35 | 4.36 | 4.32 | Pirates | 95 | 97 | 90 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.5 | 4.55 | 5.8 | 48.1% | 1.10 | 4.10 | 3.78 | Indians | 117 | 106 | 102 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 6.2 | 4.78 | 5.4 | 46.4% | 0.96 | 4.62 | 3.91 | White Sox | 99 | 96 | 113 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | -0.9 | 3.92 | 5.2 | 41.7% | 0.90 | 3.88 | 4.02 | Marlins | 83 | 86 | 64 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 2.8 | 5.00 | 5.7 | 48.7% | 1.14 | 4.92 | 4.63 | Mariners | 103 | 102 | 69 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 2.7 | 4.65 | 5.4 | 35.8% | 0.92 | 4.62 | 3.23 | Angels | 107 | 83 | 74 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 3.5 | 4.73 | 5.5 | 36.5% | 0.92 | 4.81 | 4.70 | Tigers | 73 | 75 | 37 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | -5.4 | 3.20 | 5.6 | 50.6% | 0.91 | 2.68 | 4.17 | Reds | 98 | 96 | 80 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 5.8 | 3.64 | 6.2 | 46.4% | 1.10 | 3.12 | 4.28 | Twins | 86 | 97 | 106 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | -1.4 | 4.06 | 5.5 | 39.3% | 1.14 | 4.44 | 4.36 | Rangers | 106 | 101 | 141 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.5 | 4.78 | 4.9 | 38.0% | 0.90 | 4.36 | 6.32 | Cardinals | 102 | 104 | 111 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.7 | 3.91 | 5.8 | 53.6% | 1.00 | 3.50 | 2.43 | Phillies | 88 | 95 | 105 |
Charlie Morton isn’t the most consistent pitcher on the board, but does have the highest strikeout rate (30.8%), third lowest SIERA (3.34) and is tied for the third lowest xwOBA (.290). Considering the 49.8 GB% and 30.3% 95+ mph aEV to go along with the elite strikeout rate, it’s easy to wonder why he hasn’t been more consistent. He certainly has upside. He moves from one great park to another tonight with San Francisco also suppressing power a great deal. The Giants have a 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP and a 10.7 HR/FB at home and vs RHP.
Luke Weaver was removed from the game after 2.2 innings (15 batters) last time out. He did allow seven base runners, but just two runs with three strikeouts. By strikeout rate (21%), SIERA (4.37 – better than Lance Lynn) and xwOBA (.337 – better than Lynn and Cole Hamels), he’s been a reasonably competent pitcher this year, who seems to manage contact decently (86.9 mph aEV). He does have a slightly elevated BABIP despite generating popups at a very high rate (14.4 IFFB%, 41.3 GB%). He’s in a great spot tonight with a park boost in Miami (8.8 HR/FB at home, 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP).
Matt Boyd has allowed three runs over his last 19 innings with 20 strikeouts. He has a 22 K% on the season and a 3.10 SIERA over the last month. His .290 xwOBA is tied for third best on the board. He’s been a great contact manager (86.2 mph aEV, 3.9% Barrels/BBE, 28.8% 95+ mph EV). Nine of his 12 HRs for the season came over an eight start stretch directly preceding these last three. He’s been a really good pitcher outside that stretch this season. I don’t know why, the peripherals aren’t that bad, but the Angels have really struggled against LHP this season (83 wRC+) despite being predominantly right-handed and more importantly, Mike Trout has missed four straight games with a wrist injury.
Nick Tropeano has a 10% walk rate and has allowed 15 HRs over 13 starts. Nine of those HRs have come in seven home starts. He’s allowed an 89.8 mph aEV and 23.6 LD%. Lots of hard contact. He does have a 20 K% with a swinging strike rate that suggests a bit more and is in the top park adjusted matchup on the board for run prevention. The Tigers have a 73 wRC+, 16.6 K-BB% and 8.5 HR/FB on the road and a 75 wRC+, 15.7 K-BB% and 8.1 HR/FB vs RHP.
Noah Syndergaard looked like he was going off the rails last start, but rallied to get through seven innings with just three runs allowed. He hasn’t struck out more than four in any of his three starts back from either of his DL trips since May, but did start to look a bit more like his old self later in that start against the Nationals. By the way, he’s faced them twice, along with the Yankees in the Bronx in those three starts back. The Reds are a decently disciplined offense (11.7 K-BB% vs RHP), but have just a 10.5 HR/FB on the road and 11.3 HR/FB vs RHP and move from a positive and power friendly environment to a very negative one that is not nearly as power friendly. Syndergaard still has the highest SwStr% on the board (13.9%) and despite the 10 point drop in strikeout rate since returning, his SwStr% has still been league average. He also has the lowest aEV on the board (.276) behind the lowest aEV (85.8 mph) and Barrels/BBE (3.0%).
Trevor Bauer walked four Twins, tying a season low with just three strikeouts in his last start. In fact, he’s struck out fewer than eight just five times over his last 19 starts, fewer than six just twice. He’s pitched into the seventh in 17 of 23 starts. Slight concern for the 11.7 BB% and 38.8 Hard% over the last month that looks a bit too much like pre-All Star break 2017 and earlier Bauer, but his 30.7 K% is 0.01 behind the top spot tonight and his .277 xwOBA is .001 behind the top spot as well. The latter is 22 points lower over the last month despite the walk rate and hard contact issues. The Twins traded away a few middle of the order bats and have just a 10.7 HR/FB vs RHP this year, but they get a park bump and have a 12.1 K-BB% vs RHP.
Wei-Yin Chen isn’t very good and has just a 16.9 K%, but manages contact well enough (.318 xwOBA, 86.3 mph aEV, 5.2% Barrels/BBE) and has gone six innings in four straight home starts with more than a single run allowed in just one of them. The Cardinals do have some proficiency against LHP (104 wRC+, 10 BB%, 17.3 HR/FB), but it’s the most negative run environment and possibly most power suppressing one on the board.
Zack Godley set a season high with 10 strikeouts in seven two-hit innings against a hot Texas offense last time out. Over the last month, he has a 29.7 K%, 16.4 SwStr% and 3.06 SIERA, all best on the board. He does allow a bit too much hard contact (88.2 mph aEV), but his 51.3 GB% is best on the board and he’s in a high upside spot (Phillies 25.8 K%, 8.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP) at home.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Jake Arrieta (.281 – 66.6% – 11.5 – 27.9% unearned run rate) has struck out 13 of his last 51 batters against the Dodgers and Red Sox of all teams. It’s his highest rolling two game strikeout total this season! His other strikeout totals above five have come against the Braves and Pirates (twice). According to Fangraphs, he’s thrown some type of fastball (mostly sinkers) 58.5% of the time this year, but less than 50% in each of his last two starts. The Diamondbacks have an 87 wRC+ and 23.9 K% vs RHP, so that probably means he’ll revert to sinkers against offenses that are actually strikeout prone. Arizona has also been improving against RHP since getting some middle of the order bats either through trade or back from the DL over the last month.
Derek Rodriguez (.271 – 77.6% – 6.3 – 13.6% unearned run rate) has had great surface results for the Giants and pitches in a great park, but a 24.7 LD% and 88.4 mph aEV make his .271 BABIP and 3.1% Barrels/BBE a bit suspect. The Astros are banged up, but still have just a 19.7 K% vs RHP and 18 HR/FB over the last week.
Joe Musgrove (.300 – 75.4% – 8.7) has gone at least seven innings in six of his 11 starts and Coors is not a deathblow for all RHPs this year (Rockies 79 wRC+, 15.3 K-BB% vs RHP), but he really doesn’t have the kind of upside we look for in this park (18.8 K%).
Kyle Freeland (.280 – 81.4% – 10) has not exceeded five strikeouts in nine starts and is probably in the worst park adjusted matchup on the board against the Pirates, though Pittsburgh’s strikeout rate rises to 22% vs southpaws.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Homer Bailey has struck out 14 of 56 batters, allowing just four ERs over 14.2 innings since returning. Those starts were in St. Louis and against Detroit. It’s not completely out of the question that he has some similar success in a great park in NY (NL). The Mets have a 77 wRC+ and 8.5 HR/FB at home. However, he does have a .395 xwOBA on the season. I’m not sure we should have great expectations for him again based on two starts against mediocre offenses.
Lance Lynn came out of the pen to throw 4.1 shutout innings against the Orioles (five strikeouts) in his first appearance for the Yankees. The most interesting thing here is that he throws some type of fastball over three-quarters of the time. It’ll be interesting what the Yankees, who throw fewer fastballs than almost any other team (maybe it is the least, I’m too lazy to look it up right now) decide to do with that. Where he should immediately benefit is the defensive difference (Twins .311 BABIP, Yankees .288). The White Sox have an 18.4 K-BB% at home and 18.5 K-BB% vs RHP. However, while the strikeout rate is up to 28.3% over the last week, that comes with an 11.9 BB% and 18.8 HR/FB. Lynn has a 12.8 BB% on the season with a 21.6 K%, but walked nobody in his Yankee debut. He and Hamels will probably be more popular with others than they are here due to great matchups and could be worth some exposure, but I see both as risks without a ton of upside.
Cole Hamels struck out nine of 20 Pirates in his Cubs’ debut, but still only lasted five innings. In fact, he hasn’t exceeded 95 pitches since mid-June, mostly due to performance, but Joe Maddon has been known to limit his starters. You never know what Hamels you’re going to get. He’s allowed multiple HRs in nine of 21 starts and struck out five or fewer in 11 of them. He is in a great spot in a power suppressing park (Royals 7.2 HR/FB at home). Kansas City also has just an 83 wRC+ with a 15.8 K-BB% vs LHP. I’m not going to argue with limited exposure for GPP players and I’m sure a lot of players are going to like him a lot more than me, but he rarely ever seems to have the upside for the price he commands (more than seven strikeouts just four times this year) and has one of the highest aEVs on the board (89.2 mph).
Dylan Covey has allowed at least four ERs in seven of his last eight starts and has a -2.2 K-BB% over that span. That said, he does cost the minimum, almost threw a shutout in Seattle two starts back, the Yankees are reeling after Boston may have just put them away for divisional purposes (71 wRC+ last seven days) and are still missing Judge and Sanchez. I’m far from recommending him because you likely end up with a negative score, but he does get you whatever pitcher and offense you want alongside him and the Yankees aren’t so scary right now.
Kyle Gibson has been fine, good in fact (26.5 K%, 14.9 SwStr%, 3.66 SIERA, .319 xwOBA over the last month), but is one of the worst park adjusted spots in Cleveland (117 wRC+, 18.5 K%, 26.2 Hard-Soft% at home, 106 wRC+, 19.5 K%, 24.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Jakob Junis has allowed 26 HRs through 20 starts despite pitching half his games in an extremely power suppressing environment. The Cubs have a 107 wRC+ and 11.1 K-BB% vs RHP.
Wade LeBlanc gets a massive park downgrade tonight against the hottest offense on the slate (141 wRC+, 12.4 BB%, 21.2 HR/FB last seven days).
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.4% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 6.8% | Season | 30.8% | 9.7% | 16.3% | 9.4% | Road | 27.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.3% | L14Days | 26.5% | 10.2% | 33.3% | -3.3% |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 20.8% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 24.0% | Season | 23.6% | 8.4% | 20.7% | 28.0% | Road | 20.8% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 19.7% | L14Days | 30.4% | 8.7% | 28.6% | 40.8% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | L2 Yrs | 19.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 30.2% | Season | 19.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 30.2% | Home | 19.9% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 24.5% | L14Days | 23.5% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 38.3% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 14.4% | 10.5% | 19.7% | 18.8% | Season | 15.4% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 19.1% | Home | 19.9% | 10.3% | 13.7% | 7.1% | L14Days | 6.4% | 10.6% | 18.2% | 28.2% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.4% | 8.6% | 15.0% | 21.6% | Season | 15.0% | 7.8% | 17.0% | 29.7% | Road | 16.7% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 21.6% | L14Days | 25.9% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 32.4% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 7.7% | Season | 17.7% | 7.7% | 11.5% | 9.4% | Road | 20.6% | 7.7% | 15.1% | 11.8% | L14Days | 25.5% | 3.9% | 10.0% | 17.1% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 6.4% | 15.5% | 22.6% | Season | 20.8% | 6.9% | 18.3% | 25.2% | Home | 20.9% | 6.8% | 16.2% | 25.7% | L14Days | 15.7% | 9.8% | 25.0% | 18.9% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 20.1% | 6.3% | 13.6% | 11.9% | Season | 18.8% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.4% | Road | 17.8% | 3.4% | 11.9% | 13.2% | L14Days | 7.3% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.0% | Season | 18.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.8% | Home | 18.4% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 4.4% | L14Days | 18.2% | 10.9% | 23.7% | |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 19.6% | Season | 23.6% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 19.4% | Road | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 16.6% | L14Days | 23.6% | 9.1% | 22.3% | |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 20.4% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 11.7% | Season | 21.6% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 17.9% | Road | 20.9% | 11.2% | 16.9% | 14.7% | L14Days | 18.6% | 2.3% | 7.1% | 21.2% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 24.2% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 14.0% | Season | 21.0% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 16.9% | Road | 24.2% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.7% | L14Days | 20.0% | 5.0% | 18.2% | 40.0% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 14.0% | 8.0% | 13.4% | 18.6% | Season | 13.6% | 9.6% | 29.9% | Home | 14.4% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 19.9% | L14Days | 18.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 22.2% | |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 14.0% | Season | 22.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 17.0% | Road | 21.1% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 12.7% | L14Days | 26.4% | 1.9% | 18.4% | |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 10.0% | 18.1% | 30.8% | Season | 20.0% | 10.0% | 18.1% | 30.8% | Home | 19.9% | 10.9% | 20.9% | 27.8% | L14Days | 20.4% | 11.1% | 60.0% | 44.5% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Yrs | 26.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 0.9% | Season | 25.4% | 4.7% | 9.2% | -3.8% | Home | 29.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 0.6% | L14Days | 14.3% | 3.6% | 16.7% | -13.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Yrs | 26.9% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 17.4% | Season | 30.7% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 20.2% | Home | 28.6% | 6.7% | 13.8% | 21.7% | L14Days | 24.5% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 31.3% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 5.3% | 14.2% | 13.5% | Season | 19.4% | 5.0% | 12.4% | 14.2% | Road | 17.9% | 6.2% | 11.2% | 15.5% | L14Days | 18.8% | 6.3% | 23.1% | 36.1% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 17.8% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 12.8% | Season | 16.9% | 9.3% | 12.7% | 16.7% | Home | 21.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 24.2% | L14Days | 10.6% | 12.8% | 23.1% | 2.8% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 24.2% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 14.9% | Season | 23.7% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 15.0% | Home | 26.2% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 18.9% | L14Days | 31.4% | 3.9% | 12.5% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 21.4% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 20.0% | RH | 23.8% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 18.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 19.5% |
| Royals | Home | 20.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 25.2% | LH | 23.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 16.5% | L7Days | 22.3% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 12.3% |
| Astros | Road | 19.5% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 21.0% | RH | 19.7% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 15.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.4% | 18.0% | 15.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 23.8% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 17.7% | RH | 22.9% | 9.0% | 15.5% | 18.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 18.3% |
| Mets | Home | 24.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 10.9% | RH | 21.7% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 15.8% | L7Days | 28.2% | 6.6% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.5% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 26.4% | RH | 23.9% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 20.2% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.1% | 16.3% | 35.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.9% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 16.2% | RH | 20.7% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 14.2% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.3% | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.6% | 8.2% | 16.5% | 13.8% | RH | 23.7% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 15.3% | L7Days | 26.1% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 19.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.9% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 18.0% | LH | 22.0% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 12.7% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 13.1% |
| Indians | Home | 18.5% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 26.2% | RH | 19.5% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 24.9% | L7Days | 13.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 15.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 25.5% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 6.0% | RH | 25.4% | 6.9% | 13.9% | 11.4% | L7Days | 28.3% | 11.9% | 18.8% | 26.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 17.7% | RH | 23.0% | 6.9% | 11.6% | 16.3% | L7Days | 21.0% | 4.7% | 13.7% | 8.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.9% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 19.1% | LH | 20.3% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 11.0% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.0% | 11.3% | 4.5% |
| Angels | Home | 21.3% | 8.9% | 14.1% | 22.1% | LH | 21.3% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 17.4% | L7Days | 25.4% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 11.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% | RH | 22.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 17.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 9.8% |
| Reds | Road | 19.4% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 17.2% | RH | 21.2% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 19.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 16.1% |
| Twins | Road | 22.1% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 15.8% | RH | 21.3% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 21.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 28.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 24.1% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 23.9% | LH | 23.3% | 9.3% | 14.3% | 17.6% | L7Days | 24.0% | 12.4% | 21.2% | 22.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 23.0% | 9.4% | 16.0% | 18.3% | LH | 22.0% | 10.0% | 17.3% | 22.0% | L7Days | 17.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 18.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.4% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 8.1% | RH | 25.8% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 12.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 30.8% | 12.9% | 2.39 | 27.4% | 11.6% | 2.36 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 23.6% | 12.4% | 1.90 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 1.77 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 19.8% | 8.6% | 2.30 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 2.91 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.20 | 12.8% | 7.2% | 1.78 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 15.0% | 8.3% | 1.81 | 25.9% | 12.0% | 2.16 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 17.7% | 7.2% | 2.46 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 2.97 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 20.8% | 9.2% | 2.26 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 2.31 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 18.8% | 9.6% | 1.96 | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.86 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 18.9% | 8.3% | 2.28 | 16.7% | 7.1% | 2.35 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 23.6% | 12.1% | 1.95 | 26.5% | 14.9% | 1.78 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 21.6% | 10.1% | 2.14 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 2.30 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.14 | 20.0% | 10.8% | 1.85 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 13.6% | 6.2% | 2.19 | 16.8% | 7.6% | 2.21 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 22.0% | 10.0% | 2.20 | 28.6% | 9.9% | 2.89 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 20.0% | 11.7% | 1.71 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 1.73 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 25.4% | 13.9% | 1.83 | 15.1% | 9.6% | 1.57 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 30.7% | 13.0% | 2.36 | 28.5% | 12.5% | 2.28 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 19.4% | 9.1% | 2.13 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 2.06 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.09 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 2.32 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 23.7% | 12.2% | 1.94 | 29.7% | 16.4% | 1.81 |
Matt Boyd has not increased his strikeout rate at all. There was some room for him to improve with a 10 SwStr%, but probably not as much as he has over the last month.
Nick Tropeano has been above a 12 SwStr% in 10 of his last 13 starts. There’s some upside here that he may be able to realize if he didn’t walk so many.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 2.90 | 3.34 | 0.44 | 2.90 | 0.24 | 3.44 | 0.54 | 3.48 | 0.58 | 4.50 | 3.65 | -0.85 | 3.36 | -1.14 | 3.35 | -1.15 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 4.53 | 4.01 | -0.52 | 4.53 | -0.46 | 5.04 | 0.51 | 6.08 | 1.55 | 7.41 | 3.97 | -3.44 | 4.05 | -3.36 | 4.99 | -2.42 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 2.59 | 4.22 | 1.63 | 2.59 | 1.58 | 3.36 | 0.77 | 5.01 | 2.42 | 1.86 | 4.49 | 2.63 | 4.33 | 2.47 | 3.30 | 1.44 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 5.57 | 4.79 | -0.78 | 5.57 | -0.98 | 4.64 | -0.93 | 5.90 | 0.33 | 5.64 | 4.93 | -0.71 | 4.54 | -1.10 | 4.37 | -1.27 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 5.87 | 5.04 | -0.83 | 5.87 | -0.95 | 5.62 | -0.25 | 5.89 | 0.02 | 2.45 | 3.52 | 1.07 | 3.22 | 0.77 | 2.75 | 0.30 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 3.32 | 4.36 | 1.04 | 3.32 | 0.77 | 3.96 | 0.64 | 4.02 | 0.70 | 2.67 | 4.07 | 1.40 | 3.63 | 0.96 | 3.30 | 0.63 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 5.12 | 4.22 | -0.90 | 5.12 | -0.60 | 5.41 | 0.29 | 6.34 | 1.22 | 5.02 | 4.31 | -0.71 | 4.03 | -0.99 | 4.70 | -0.32 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 3.63 | 4.29 | 0.66 | 3.63 | 0.74 | 3.84 | 0.21 | 3.95 | 0.32 | 3.38 | 4.55 | 1.17 | 4.59 | 1.21 | 4.51 | 1.13 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 3.20 | 4.50 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 1.18 | 4.04 | 0.84 | 4.01 | 0.81 | 3.04 | 5.14 | 2.10 | 5.23 | 2.19 | 3.99 | 0.95 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 3.47 | 4.10 | 0.63 | 3.47 | 0.38 | 3.73 | 0.26 | 3.74 | 0.27 | 3.15 | 3.66 | 0.51 | 3.46 | 0.31 | 2.87 | -0.28 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 4.89 | 4.67 | -0.22 | 4.89 | -0.47 | 4.57 | -0.32 | 6.58 | 1.69 | 3.08 | 4.58 | 1.50 | 4.57 | 1.49 | 4.99 | 1.91 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 4.75 | 4.37 | -0.38 | 4.75 | -0.47 | 4.18 | -0.57 | 4.09 | -0.66 | 3.86 | 4.63 | 0.77 | 4.29 | 0.43 | 4.18 | 0.32 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 6.50 | 5.20 | -1.30 | 6.50 | -1.30 | 6.21 | -0.29 | 8.29 | 1.79 | 3.47 | 4.63 | 1.16 | 4.27 | 0.80 | 4.54 | 1.07 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 4.22 | 4.33 | 0.11 | 4.22 | 0.39 | 3.85 | -0.37 | 5.52 | 1.30 | 2.88 | 3.10 | 0.22 | 3.37 | 0.49 | 2.04 | -0.84 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 4.94 | 4.73 | -0.21 | 4.94 | -0.19 | 5.57 | 0.63 | 4.83 | -0.11 | 5.29 | 4.93 | -0.36 | 4.58 | -0.71 | 7.81 | 2.52 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 2.98 | 3.28 | 0.30 | 2.98 | 0.10 | 2.72 | -0.26 | 2.22 | -0.76 | 2.65 | 4.41 | 1.76 | 4.05 | 1.40 | 3.16 | 0.51 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 2.34 | 3.27 | 0.93 | 2.34 | 0.86 | 2.43 | 0.09 | 2.46 | 0.12 | 2.23 | 3.93 | 1.70 | 3.69 | 1.46 | 3.23 | 1.00 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 3.95 | 4.20 | 0.25 | 3.95 | 0.41 | 4.31 | 0.36 | 5.43 | 1.48 | 6.11 | 4.05 | -2.06 | 4.3 | -1.81 | 5.38 | -0.73 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 5.86 | 5.05 | -0.81 | 5.86 | -0.74 | 5.13 | -0.73 | 5.95 | 0.09 | 6.75 | 5.03 | -1.72 | 4.94 | -1.81 | 5.37 | -1.38 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 4.46 | 4.16 | -0.30 | 4.46 | -0.53 | 3.93 | -0.53 | 4.66 | 0.20 | 2.64 | 3.06 | 0.42 | 2.74 | 0.10 | 1.66 | -0.98 |
Trevor Bauer has a 5.5 HR/FB.
Wei-Yin Chen has a 66.4 LOB%, so that’s the good news, but his estimators are still all above five. Further good news might be that those estimators don’t take contact quality into account.
Zack Godley has a .323 BABIP and 10.3% unearned run rate.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.279 | 0.285 | 0.006 | 49.8% | 23.1% | 10.0% | 81.4% | 33.1% |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 0.280 | 0.298 | 0.018 | 44.0% | 23.5% | 9.0% | 84.8% | 34.7% |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.296 | 0.271 | -0.025 | 41.6% | 24.7% | 9.4% | 89.2% | 32.9% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 0.290 | 0.308 | 0.018 | 56.2% | 18.6% | 3.3% | 90.3% | 40.7% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.295 | 0.292 | -0.003 | 39.5% | 23.8% | 7.4% | 91.1% | 41.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.292 | 0.281 | -0.011 | 52.4% | 20.7% | 9.4% | 90.8% | 31.7% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.313 | 0.289 | -0.024 | 41.1% | 18.9% | 9.2% | 90.9% | 31.3% |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.302 | 0.300 | -0.002 | 48.1% | 18.4% | 10.1% | 86.0% | 34.1% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.302 | 0.280 | -0.022 | 48.5% | 18.2% | 8.5% | 88.1% | 36.1% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.311 | 0.274 | -0.037 | 46.7% | 22.4% | 11.5% | 88.0% | 35.1% |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 0.288 | 0.326 | 0.038 | 50.5% | 22.4% | 9.4% | 84.6% | 43.6% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.290 | 0.311 | 0.021 | 41.3% | 22.4% | 14.4% | 85.3% | 41.9% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 0.304 | 0.376 | 0.072 | 49.4% | 19.9% | 5.9% | 93.9% | 38.9% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.290 | 0.264 | -0.026 | 32.7% | 22.1% | 10.7% | 85.1% | 37.4% |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 0.292 | 0.269 | -0.023 | 36.5% | 23.6% | 9.6% | 85.0% | 36.5% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.302 | 0.341 | 0.039 | 47.2% | 24.7% | 7.7% | 85.6% | 33.7% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.294 | 0.305 | 0.011 | 43.9% | 21.8% | 11.0% | 85.2% | 32.2% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.299 | 0.281 | -0.018 | 37.1% | 20.9% | 6.6% | 86.5% | 29.4% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.294 | 0.297 | 0.003 | 36.7% | 21.6% | 12.7% | 87.2% | 36.4% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.285 | 0.323 | 0.038 | 51.3% | 21.3% | 14.7% | 88.9% | 31.4% |
Matt Boyd generates a lot of weak contact and is a fly ball pitcher. The profile is not bad and 26 points isn’t too far from his team rate.
Noah Syndergaard has the highest LD% on the board, but he’s been the top contact manager! The defense rarely helps, but there’s no way his BABIP or LD rate should remain this high.
Zack Godley doesn’t have a bad profile at all and generates quite a few popups for a ground ball pitcher, but probably generates too many hard ground balls, which can elevate one’s BABIP.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.290 | -0.003 | 0.306 | -0.001 | 0.299 | -0.015 | -0.900 | 87.3 | 5.7 | 30.300 | 297 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 0.354 | -0.009 | 0.332 | -0.036 | 0.347 | 0.022 | -0.100 | 89.2 | 8.5 | 37.700 | 342 |
| Dereck Rodriguez | Giants | 0.305 | -0.015 | 0.295 | -0.014 | 0.306 | -0.020 | -0.100 | 88.4 | 3.1 | 36.200 | 196 |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | 0.353 | -0.023 | 0.323 | -0.011 | 0.377 | -0.024 | -0.600 | 89.1 | 5.7 | 39.200 | 245 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.395 | -0.035 | 0.378 | -0.035 | 0.294 | -0.077 | -0.100 | 89.2 | 9.4 | 45.100 | 266 |
| Jake Arrieta | Phillies | 0.322 | -0.022 | 0.330 | -0.009 | 0.359 | -0.032 | -0.800 | 87.2 | 4.4 | 32.100 | 361 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.349 | 0.000 | 0.352 | -0.014 | 0.397 | 0.028 | -0.800 | 89 | 10.1 | 37.200 | 358 |
| Joe Musgrove | Pirates | 0.298 | 0.010 | 0.307 | 0.004 | 0.308 | 0.008 | -0.200 | 86.7 | 4.8 | 31.100 | 209 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.314 | -0.013 | 0.299 | 0.016 | 0.319 | -0.020 | 0.500 | 86 | 5.5 | 29.600 | 399 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.321 | -0.032 | 0.325 | -0.026 | 0.319 | -0.025 | 0.800 | 87.3 | 5.9 | 35.600 | 371 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 0.338 | 0.003 | 0.327 | 0.014 | 0.317 | 0.004 | -0.200 | 88.2 | 5.8 | 39.000 | 313 |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | 0.337 | -0.011 | 0.314 | -0.007 | 0.352 | 0.009 | -0.600 | 86.9 | 5.9 | 34.300 | 353 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 0.382 | 0.040 | 0.378 | -0.001 | 0.316 | 0.045 | -0.900 | 89.6 | 7.2 | 41.900 | 167 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.290 | -0.001 | 0.318 | 0.031 | 0.278 | 0.033 | -0.800 | 86.2 | 3.9 | 28.800 | 333 |
| Nick Tropeano | Angels | 0.371 | -0.020 | 0.366 | -0.010 | 0.414 | -0.033 | -1.800 | 89.8 | 8.7 | 38.900 | 208 |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 0.276 | 0.022 | 0.265 | 0.027 | 0.285 | 0.042 | 0.000 | 85.8 | 3.0 | 28.900 | 235 |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 0.277 | -0.011 | 0.307 | -0.013 | 0.255 | 0.002 | -0.500 | 87 | 4.5 | 29.900 | 378 |
| Wade LeBlanc | Mariners | 0.351 | -0.039 | 0.369 | -0.039 | 0.371 | -0.036 | -0.200 | 87.2 | 9.7 | 36.700 | 330 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.318 | 0.031 | 0.272 | -0.002 | 0.316 | 0.018 | -0.500 | 86.3 | 5.2 | 31.500 | 270 |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | 0.346 | -0.022 | 0.314 | -0.026 | 0.313 | -0.017 | -1.300 | 88.2 | 7.4 | 36.300 | 353 |
Six of 20 pitchers above an 89 mph aEV seems like a large portion of the board. Some of them may be usable pitchers too.
Considering all the issues he’s had, did anyone have Noah Syndergaard for the lowest xwOBA on the board? His excellent contact management often gets lost in the shuffle, especially considering the high BABIP.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Not a lot of extremely high upside arms, but some depth and potentially some value. The funny thing is that while it’s easy to see the top three overall ranked pitches as the three best tonight, they all seem to have a wide range of outcomes with a lack of consistency recently. They really could end up in any order.
Value Tier One
Noah Syndergaard (2t) probably hasn’t done enough since returning to warrant this top spot, but he did look better later in his last start and exceeded 90 pitches to get through seven innings. He’s faced some tough lineups since returning from the DL and had to deal with that silly illness as well. The Reds are tough, but suffer a significant park downgrade tonight and have a lot of outs in the second half of that lineup. If he’s anywhere near back to form tonight, less than $10K is much too cheap in a reasonable or better spot.
Luke Weaver is cheap and in a great spot in a great park. While there’s been talk about his rotation spot being in jeopardy, believe it or not, he’s allowed no more than two runs in four of his last five starts with a high of three. Three of those starts have been really good (6 IP – 2 ER – 5 K or better).
Value Tier Two
Charlie Morton (1) has as much upside as anyone on the board and maybe the most upside. He’s in a great spots and isn’t impossible to afford.
Value Tier Three
Wei-Yin Chen is far from risk free without much upside against a dangerous offense vs LHP, but he manages contact well in a great park, in which he’s gone six innings with one run or less in three of his last four starts there. Paying up for an SP1 with him in your second spot allows you to take on some quality bats as well.
Nick Tropeano has some upside in his swinging strike rate, but a lot of risk in a high walk rate and way too much hard contact. However, the Tigers neither take a lot of walks nor make a lot of hard contact. This is a great spot for him particularly because the Tigers struggle with the same things he does.
Zack Godley is in a high upside spot coming off his best start of the season. He did allow eight runs in the 10.2 innings preceding it, but has at least six strikeouts in five straight starts.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Matt Boyd isn’t in the greatest spot against a predominantly right-handed lineup, though, for some reason they can’t get results against LHP. His strikeout rate over the last month probably isn’t real, but he’s been a quality pitcher, manages contact well and is reasonably priced ($7.6K) in a favorable park.
Trevor Bauer (2t) may have shown enough concerning traits over the last month and especially in his last start against these same Twins to consider fading him in this spot as easily the most expensive pitcher on the board, but I’m not going to entirely go there on a board with some depth, but not a ton of upside.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.