Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, August 8th
I always remind readers to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report in the introduction because they can all help players make a close decision. Up until this weekend, you could only do 75% of those things at Rotogrinders. Now you can find umpire information right here too. Unfortunately, home plate assignments aren’t available until later in the day (especially for the first game of a series), which doesn’t allow for inclusion in this article, but everything is available all in the same place now.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Reed | CIN | -0.8 | 4.06 | 5.03 | 2.08 | 0.97 | 4.21 | 4.62 | STL | 101 | 90 | 86 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 6.1 | 3.65 | 6.56 | 1.55 | 1.37 | 3.69 | 3.02 | COL | 104 | 92 | 129 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 8.2 | 3.78 | 6.11 | 1.27 | 1.03 | 4.11 | 3.12 | MIN | 95 | 98 | 162 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -4.9 | 3.74 | 6.17 | 1.35 | 0.9 | 3.79 | 3.96 | DET | 98 | 107 | 121 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -3.3 | 3.97 | 5.87 | 0.81 | 1.02 | 4.24 | 3.68 | TOR | 108 | 102 | 56 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 4.8 | 3.66 | 6.86 | 1.28 | 1 | 3.59 | 3.79 | FLA | 91 | 97 | 103 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 3.8 | 2.63 | 6.13 | 1.34 | 1 | 2.37 | 2.91 | SFO | 92 | 101 | 82 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.5 | 3.75 | 4.46 | 1.31 | 0.9 | 2.67 | 2.72 | PHI | 91 | 72 | 97 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -10 | 4.49 | 5.62 | 1.81 | 0.95 | 4.31 | 5.37 | BAL | 99 | 112 | 128 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -3.3 | 3.7 | 5.82 | 1.19 | 0.95 | 3.96 | 3.9 | OAK | 83 | 89 | 82 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | -6.8 | 3.98 | 6.12 | 1.74 | 0.9 | 3.95 | 4.04 | SEA | 113 | 111 | 95 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -6.5 | 4.15 | 5.79 | 1.45 | 0.97 | 3.75 | 3.73 | CIN | 79 | 85 | 98 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 5.7 | 4.69 | 6.3 | 1.17 | 1.02 | 4.66 | 4.22 | TAM | 101 | 94 | 97 |
| Rob Whalen | ATL | 0.2 | 6.07 | 5. | 0.22 | 1.05 | 6.07 | MIL | 95 | 87 | 110 | |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 1.9 | 3.53 | 6.1 | 2.22 | 1.37 | 3.23 | 3.6 | TEX | 91 | 99 | 72 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | -4.5 | 4.01 | 5.47 | 1.66 | 1.03 | 4.15 | 4.36 | HOU | 99 | 97 | 42 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -7.9 | 4.19 | 5.8 | 1.62 | 1.05 | 3.97 | 4.35 | ATL | 78 | 80 | 107 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | -2.4 | 5.21 | 6.01 | 0.94 | 0.9 | 5.43 | 6.59 | LOS | 99 | 100 | 83 |
Collin McHugh allowed three solo HRs, but struck out 10 Blue Jays a start after lasting just 15 batters in Detroit. He’s now tied his season high of 10 Ks in two of his last four starts. His 16.2 K-BB% is halfway between last season and his breakout 2014. With a hard hit rate just below 30%, this should be a decent pitcher if not for the insolvably high BABIP. The Twins are an average offense, but still the hottest one on the board. Their 162 wRC+ over the last week is over 30 points higher than the next best team today, which includes a 19.4 HR/FB.
Jose Fernandez is the top strikeout pitcher in the majors with more than a three point lead on Kershaw. He’s the top dog with the most upside tonight. Nobody comes close to his floor or upside. Even if he gives up a few runs it’s never without seven or eight strikeouts (just three times and once since April). The Giants have just a 7.7 K-BB% vs RHP and seem to be facing the top pitcher frequently over the last week. They may lower his strikeout rate, but even if it’s by five to 10 points, it’s still the top projection by a landslide tonight and they’ve struck out 22.9% over the last week. It’s not nearly enough to hold him back. They have just an 8.6 HR/FB vs RHP, which increases on the road, but remains below average.
Julio Urias was last seen allowing three runs out of the bullpen, working three innings in Colorado. He’s started one major league game over the last month, in which he pitched well (one run, four strikeouts, 17 batters faced), but was pulled after four innings and 77 pitches. He’ll likely face additional restrictions here in this spot start for newly acquired Rich Hill (blister). Otherwise, he’s an immensely talented arm in the premium spot tonight. The Phillies have the worst offense in the majors vs LHP (16.5 K-BB%, 8.3 HR/FB, 6.5 Hard-Soft%).
Kevin Gausman has a pretty strong 16.9 K-BB% and just a normal hard contact rate (31.9%), but a tough park has led to a high HR rate and 20 in 19 starts. The good news is that he moves to a great park in terms of suppressing power against an offense with just a 9.4 HR/FB at home. It’s a strong spot in terms of run prevention. The A’s struggle against RHP and recently traded away their most competent LH bat. It’s a less friendly spot in terms of strikeouts (18% at home, 18.4% vs RHP).
Michael Wacha has been presenting himself as something of a league average pitcher or even slightly less for a while now. He has a perfectly average 13.3 career K-BB% and slightly less at 12.1% this year. He’s allowing a hard contact rate just under 30% each of the last two seasons and has been able to suppress HRs (though to a lesser extent the last two years) in a favorable home park. His 48% ground ball rate this year is the highest of his career, while he’s in a great spot tonight against an offense with just one remaining potent LH bat. The Reds have a 14.7 K-BB% and 10.7 HR/FB on the road. This is a great spot for him.
Tyler Anderson has been a quality pitcher since his call-up, but continues to fly under the radar due to his home park, though he has just a 3.32 ERA there, supported by his peripherals and estimators, while pitching at least two outs into the sixth in every single major league start he’s made. I’d confidently argue that he’s been a better overall pitcher than his opponent tonight, a 2016 All-Star. He has a 15.8 K-BB% and 54.9 GB% with a 5.5 Hard-Soft% that has been retained at home. This is a quality pitcher facing an average offense, who may be down one of their new RH bats with a quad injury suffered Saturday. It’s just about always going to be one of the two worst spots in Coors, but while the Texas offense has some power, it’s not an unnavigable lineup.
Tyler Duffey has some major issues with hard contact (32.9%), allowing 18 HRs in 18 starts. He struck out six of 24 in Cleveland in his last start, coming off two starts where he lasted a total of 3.2 innings without striking out any of the 27 batters he faced, while allowing 11 runs. He’s inexplicably been so much better on the road with an ERA more than three runs lower and a solid 15.4 K-BB%, six points higher than at home. He is at home tonight against an offense with some power, but a fairly neutral one with a 24.2 K% vs RHP and has been the coldest set of bats on the board over the last week (21.2 K-BB%, 1.9 HR/FB, 2.2 Hard-Soft%).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Johnny Cueto (.288 – 77.1% – 7.8) is a good pitcher who has given his team at least seven innings in 14 of his 22 starts, but just five of his last 12. Though he had his second double digit strikeout performance in his last start, that’s generally not his thing with his increase in K% over the last month, not fully supported in a stable SwStr%. He’s neck and neck with his opponent for the highest price tag today, much more dependent on batted ball outcomes and not at all assured of a Win in a game where his team is a significant dog. A low HR rate is a big reason for his high price tag in a power suppressing park. He’s in another decent one tonight, but not nearly as much as San Francisco and he’s also allowed seven of his 10 HRs in his last seven starts. He’s still my second ranked overall pitcher, which establishes two things that will be obvious with his opponent’s placement below. First, there is clearly one top dog tonight. Second, it very quickly thins out behind him without many projecting for a much above average performance behind him, as you can see in steep drop in price behind Cueto.
Cole Hamels (.279 – 82.4% – 14.3) has finally dropped in price as the sites have come to realize he’s been a mediocre pitcher (14.0 K-BB%) with a high strand rate all season. No, that’s not it? Oh, he’s pitching in Colorado. The Rockies are poor vs LHP (23.2 K%), but have a 15.6 HR/FB against them and a 16.0 HR/FB at home. You never know what you’re going to get out of Hamels. The drop in price doesn’t necessarily change his expected value much in such a terrible spot.
Michael Fulmer (.250 – 83.7% – 11.8) is a good pitcher, severely over-rated by ERA and in a dangerous spot tonight. In a park that suppresses scoring, the Mariners have a 16.8 HR/FB at home and 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP. They are a top three offense in the majors under both conditions.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Cody Reed has allowed just two HRs in his last three games after nine in his first five. The issue here though, is that he’s struck out just four of his last 49. His last start was against these Cardinals, in which he allowed five runs and struck out just one, but had a 10.2 SwStr%. This is almost interesting because the Cardinals do struggle against LHP and he gets a significant park upgrade, at least in terms of power suppression, although St Louis does become more homer friendly during the hot summer months. Reed also has a 54.7 GB%, but a hard hit rate at least 40% in six of eight starts.
Hisashi Iwakuma faces a strong Detroit offense in a suppressive run environment that may neutralize them. They strike out a bit more than average, but just 17.5% over the last week. He has a lower HR rate this year, but is on pace for a career high, having just hit 20 allowed, due to a career low 39.6 GB% (by nearly 10 points) and a career high 31.4 Hard%. An increase in strikeout rate to 21.7% over the last month is not supported by his SwStr%, while he has stranded 82.2% with just a 6.3 HR/FB.
Jake Odorizzi has not allowed a run in three starts, spanning 20.2 innings with 16 Ks and two walks (75 batters), which is the reason for a significant price increase today ($9.9K on DraftKings). His 15.6 K-BB% is a solid mark, but he also has a 32.5 Hard% with a 0.86 GB/FB as a reverse platoon pitcher in a tough spot. The Blue Jays have a 22.5 K%, but a 34.9 Hard% and above average offense at home. Despite their struggles over the last week, they’ve still hit the ball hard 40% of the time.
Zach Davies has been a competent pitcher for the Brewers, though his sub-two ERA in four post-break starts is fueled by a .260 BABIP without surrendering a single HR, not an easy thing to do in Milwaukee. He’s at home tonight in a strong spot. The Braves have no power (8.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but only strike out at an average rate and haven’t been too bad recently. Say what you want about Matt Kemp at this stage of his career, but he gives them at least some legitimate RH power in the middle of that lineup. The Braves have a 13.2 HR/FB since his acquisition. If we’re still calling him a league average pitcher in a good spot in an offensively favorable environment, a price tag above $8K seems no better than adequate here.
Rob Whalen is a 22 year-old former 12th round draft pick, who was not a highly regarded prospect, but is one of a few Braves acquisitions from the Mets in the last year who has taken steps forward in the high minors this season with a strikeout rate above 22% at both AA and AAA. He struck out five of 25 Pirates in his first start, but also walked four with just two ground balls and a 28.6 Hard-Soft%. The Brewers have an enormous strikeout rate (above 25% at home and vs RHP), but may be even more likely to take advantage of his control issues (9.4 BB% vs RHP).
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Reed | Reds | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.7% | Road | 20.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 6.1% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.6% | 7.8% | Road | 22.8% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 8.6% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 21.1% | 5.8% | Road | 19.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 2.5% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.3% | 4.8% | Home | 19.9% | 2.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 2.2% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.7% | 6.7% | Road | 19.2% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 4.2% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.8% | 5.5% | Road | 21.0% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 5.5% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 34.2% | 6.7% | Home | 34.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.8% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.4% | 9.3% | Home | 32.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.8% | 7.1% | Home | 14.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 6.1% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.3% | 6.2% | Road | 22.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 8.9% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.0% | 7.4% | Road | 20.2% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 1.9% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.6% | Home | 19.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 2.3% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 15.6% | 7.6% | Home | 16.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.8% |
| Rob Whalen | Braves | L2 Years | 20.0% | 16.0% | Road | L14 Days | 20.0% | 16.0% | ||
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.6% | 4.7% | Home | 22.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 3.9% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 19.3% | 6.4% | Home | 16.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 2.8% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.4% | Home | 21.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 12.2% | 5.9% | Road | 10.5% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 13.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Home | 19.4% | 8.7% | LH | 20.7% | 8.1% | L7Days | 16.7% | 8.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.5% | 9.5% | LH | 23.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 9.5% |
| Twins | Home | 19.8% | 8.3% | RH | 21.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.6% | 10.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.5% | 7.7% | RH | 21.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.2% | 10.2% | RH | 22.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 31.2% | 6.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.2% | 7.6% | RH | 18.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.0% |
| Giants | Road | 18.3% | 8.3% | RH | 17.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.6% | 6.6% | LH | 23.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.5% | 6.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.5% | 7.1% | RH | 22.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 18.0% | 6.3% | RH | 18.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.6% | 5.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.4% | 9.1% | RH | 20.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.9% |
| Reds | Road | 21.8% | 7.1% | RH | 21.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.2% |
| Rays | Road | 23.2% | 7.8% | RH | 23.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.4% | 10.4% | RH | 25.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.1% | 13.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.7% | 6.1% | LH | 20.4% | 6.3% | L7Days | 22.6% | 4.9% |
| Astros | Road | 23.1% | 9.2% | RH | 24.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 26.8% | 5.6% |
| Braves | Road | 20.4% | 7.2% | RH | 19.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.4% | 8.9% | RH | 21.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Reed | Reds | L2 Years | 40.6% | 30.6% | 23.2% | 2016 | 40.6% | 30.6% | 23.2% | Road | 40.3% | 35.3% | 25.4% | L14 Days | 42.5% | 20.0% | 22.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 27.1% | 12.6% | 5.5% | 2016 | 28.7% | 14.3% | 7.4% | Road | 28.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 14.3% | 5.8% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 26.5% | 9.7% | 5.3% | 2016 | 29.8% | 12.1% | 10.2% | Road | 29.5% | 10.6% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 46.4% | 23.1% | 28.5% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.6% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 2016 | 31.4% | 11.8% | 14.2% | Home | 31.8% | 13.1% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 6.7% | -2.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 29.4% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 2016 | 32.5% | 11.1% | 14.6% | Road | 29.3% | 11.8% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 27.1% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 2016 | 26.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | Road | 30.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 11.1% | 18.0% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.8% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 2016 | 31.6% | 11.8% | 10.6% | Home | 29.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 25.0% | 20.7% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 31.5% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 2016 | 31.5% | 12.8% | 10.5% | Home | 43.5% | 0.0% | 26.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 50.0% | -9.1% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.1% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 2016 | 30.1% | 13.7% | 13.2% | Home | 29.4% | 11.1% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 25.0% | 23.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.9% | 13.9% | 9.8% | 2016 | 31.9% | 17.7% | 13.5% | Road | 32.0% | 17.4% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 44.4% | 33.3% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.0% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 2016 | 31.0% | 11.8% | 12.6% | Road | 32.4% | 13.6% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 25.0% | 18.2% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.0% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 2016 | 29.8% | 10.4% | 11.7% | Home | 30.7% | 10.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 11.1% | 13.5% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 27.0% | 12.0% | 6.4% | 2016 | 31.0% | 17.4% | 9.3% | Home | 27.1% | 13.3% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 18.2% | -5.5% |
| Rob Whalen | Braves | L2 Years | 35.7% | 11.1% | 28.6% | 2016 | 35.7% | 11.1% | 28.6% | Road | L14 Days | 35.7% | 11.1% | 28.6% | |||
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 30.0% | 11.1% | 5.4% | 2016 | 30.0% | 11.1% | 5.4% | Home | 33.1% | 9.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 30.8% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 2016 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 16.6% | Home | 34.0% | 17.6% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 27.3% | 24.2% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 2016 | 32.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% | Home | 35.9% | 13.8% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 2016 | 31.4% | 11.1% | 13.5% | Road | 35.7% | 10.2% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 21.4% | 15.4% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Home | 33.7% | 12.9% | 16.1% | LH | 31.3% | 10.9% | 14.2% | L7Days | 34.4% | 10.2% | 19.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.2% | 16.0% | 18.8% | LH | 32.9% | 15.6% | 13.6% | L7Days | 35.3% | 23.1% | 18.2% |
| Twins | Home | 32.1% | 10.5% | 14.1% | RH | 31.3% | 12.1% | 12.8% | L7Days | 32.7% | 19.4% | 15.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 32.3% | 13.5% | 13.5% | RH | 32.4% | 14.2% | 15.0% | L7Days | 30.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 34.9% | 14.3% | 17.1% | RH | 33.7% | 15.1% | 15.4% | L7Days | 40.0% | 15.4% | 23.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 30.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | RH | 30.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 26.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% |
| Giants | Road | 32.5% | 11.2% | 13.6% | RH | 30.7% | 8.6% | 11.3% | L7Days | 28.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 32.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | LH | 26.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | L7Days | 33.7% | 15.3% | 18.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.0% | 14.0% | 13.3% | RH | 32.9% | 16.5% | 13.1% | L7Days | 34.4% | 23.0% | 22.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | RH | 29.5% | 10.3% | 10.4% | L7Days | 29.8% | 13.3% | 11.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.7% | 16.8% | 13.7% | RH | 31.4% | 15.4% | 14.0% | L7Days | 26.1% | 14.9% | 6.2% |
| Reds | Road | 29.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | RH | 30.3% | 12.5% | 12.2% | L7Days | 26.8% | 12.5% | 12.8% |
| Rays | Road | 32.9% | 14.2% | 14.9% | RH | 33.4% | 14.2% | 14.3% | L7Days | 37.7% | 15.6% | 19.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 34.6% | 16.0% | 17.3% | RH | 32.5% | 14.8% | 13.1% | L7Days | 34.8% | 14.8% | 18.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.6% | 14.7% | 12.3% | LH | 31.7% | 14.8% | 13.1% | L7Days | 32.1% | 9.1% | 14.8% |
| Astros | Road | 33.2% | 13.3% | 16.4% | RH | 33.2% | 13.9% | 15.1% | L7Days | 27.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| Braves | Road | 26.3% | 9.4% | 5.6% | RH | 27.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 29.3% | 13.2% | 8.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 32.5% | 15.1% | 14.7% | RH | 33.2% | 14.2% | 16.1% | L7Days | 39.6% | 11.8% | 25.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Reed | CIN | 19.5% | 9.9% | 1.97 | 16.5% | 9.6% | 1.72 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 23.4% | 12.4% | 1.89 | 24.4% | 12.7% | 1.92 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 22.7% | 11.2% | 2.03 | 26.3% | 10.6% | 2.48 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 17.9% | 8.0% | 2.24 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 2.86 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 22.5% | 9.6% | 2.34 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 1.91 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.45 | 25.0% | 9.2% | 2.72 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 36.4% | 14.9% | 2.44 | 34.9% | 15.1% | 2.31 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 26.4% | 10.4% | 2.54 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 2.01 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.78 | 11.4% | 6.1% | 1.87 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.10 | 24.7% | 10.7% | 2.31 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 21.0% | 10.9% | 1.93 | 14.8% | 8.9% | 1.66 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 19.4% | 8.3% | 2.34 | 17.5% | 8.9% | 1.97 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 17.2% | 10.4% | 1.65 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 1.43 |
| Rob Whalen | ATL | 20.0% | 6.1% | 3.28 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 3.28 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 20.6% | 10.2% | 2.02 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 1.99 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 17.8% | 8.0% | 2.23 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 1.49 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 19.6% | 7.9% | 2.48 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 2.35 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 12.2% | 6.0% | 2.03 | 12.2% | 5.0% | 2.44 |
Tyler Duffey has sandwiched two double digit SwStr% starts around three at 7.3% or below. He’s been very inconsistently up and down and all over the place this season, but has shown some upside occasionally, at 9.3% or better in seven of 18 starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.31 ERA – 4.27 SIERA – 4.21 xFIP – 4.26 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Reed | CIN | 7.3 | 4.05 | -3.25 | 4.06 | -3.24 | 6.11 | -1.19 | 5.66 | 3.94 | -1.72 | 3.95 | -1.71 | 4.63 | -1.03 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 2.89 | 4.03 | 1.14 | 3.92 | 1.03 | 4.09 | 1.2 | 2.76 | 4.15 | 1.39 | 3.98 | 1.22 | 3.2 | 0.44 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.73 | 3.89 | -0.84 | 4.01 | -0.72 | 3.9 | -0.83 | 5.61 | 3.48 | -2.13 | 3.79 | -1.82 | 4.38 | -1.23 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 3.99 | 4.4 | 0.41 | 4.45 | 0.46 | 4.29 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 4.02 | 1.62 | 3.97 | 1.57 | 3.07 | 0.67 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.7 | 4.03 | 0.33 | 4.19 | 0.49 | 3.92 | 0.22 | 1.71 | 3.84 | 2.13 | 4.01 | 2.3 | 2.63 | 0.92 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 2.73 | 3.54 | 0.81 | 3.41 | 0.68 | 2.87 | 0.14 | 4.18 | 3.68 | -0.5 | 3.86 | -0.32 | 4.02 | -0.16 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.87 | 2.57 | -0.3 | 2.29 | -0.58 | 2.21 | -0.66 | 3.45 | 2.55 | -0.9 | 2.11 | -1.34 | 2.4 | -1.05 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 4.98 | 3.75 | -1.23 | 3.52 | -1.46 | 3.53 | -1.45 | 5.14 | 2.72 | -2.42 | 2.51 | -2.63 | 3.42 | -1.72 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.46 | 4.65 | 0.19 | 4.53 | 0.07 | 4.65 | 0.19 | 4.19 | 4.54 | 0.35 | 4.28 | 0.09 | 4.15 | -0.04 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 4.08 | 3.78 | -0.3 | 3.73 | -0.35 | 4.38 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 3.85 | 0.05 | 3.73 | -0.07 | 4.87 | 1.07 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.42 | 3.98 | 1.56 | 3.87 | 1.45 | 3.76 | 1.34 | 3.29 | 3.88 | 0.59 | 3.84 | 0.55 | 4.52 | 1.23 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.35 | 4.19 | -0.16 | 3.94 | -0.41 | 3.66 | -0.69 | 4.23 | 3.93 | -0.3 | 3.83 | -0.4 | 4.62 | 0.39 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.49 | 4.72 | 0.23 | 4.65 | 0.16 | 5.3 | 0.81 | 5.97 | 4.75 | -1.22 | 4.86 | -1.11 | 5.79 | -0.18 |
| Rob Whalen | ATL | 7.2 | 6.07 | -1.13 | 7.73 | 0.53 | 7.33 | 0.13 | 7.2 | 6.07 | -1.13 | 7.73 | 0.53 | 7.33 | 0.13 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 3.25 | 3.53 | 0.28 | 3.29 | 0.04 | 3.13 | -0.12 | 3.45 | 3.82 | 0.37 | 3.63 | 0.18 | 2.97 | -0.48 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 6.21 | 4.12 | -2.09 | 3.97 | -2.24 | 4.84 | -1.37 | 11.25 | 5.08 | -6.17 | 4.73 | -6.52 | 6.32 | -4.93 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 3.57 | 4.14 | 0.57 | 4.04 | 0.47 | 3.83 | 0.26 | 1.78 | 4.13 | 2.35 | 4.01 | 2.23 | 2.31 | 0.53 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 4.77 | 5.2 | 0.43 | 5.13 | 0.36 | 4.84 | 0.07 | 5.23 | 5.57 | 0.34 | 5.57 | 0.34 | 4.94 | -0.29 |
Collin McHugh still claims a raging BABIP despite solid indicators and low line drive rate. It jumps to .414 over the last month with a 37.3 LD%. However, his 57.1 Hard% in his last start resulted in just a .273 BABIP due to three HRs.
Jose Fernandez does not do a good job of suppressing hard contact with merely a league average rate when batters occasionally do make it. Nobody really notices his high BABIP or insane line drive rate because it’s generally not a big deal when less than 60% of batters are making contact. He will occasionally allow a few runs though when that hard contact is stringed together, but only more than two earned four times in his last 15 starts.
Julio Urias has a .378 BABIP with a very high line drive rate, but otherwise fine profile and solid defense. It’s been at least .375 in seven of 10 outings. We’re still in the small sample size area and it’s a ridiculous number, but something is going to have to happen with that line drive rate. He has the same league average 31% hard hit rate as Fernandez. If he can generate the same strikeout rate, everything will be great.
Tyler Duffey has some awful numbers outside his peripherals with a .342 BABIP, which matches his 23.9 LD%. A 19.8 HR/FB is a bit too high for his 32.9 Hard% and his 63.3 LOB% should improve some. Once again, his numbers in all three categories are much worse at home, which is still difficult to understand.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Reed | CIN | 0.287 | 0.367 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.0% | 86.2% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.289 | 0.279 | -0.01 | 0.207 | 4.2% | 84.8% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.309 | 0.360 | 0.051 | 0.187 | 11.3% | 88.0% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.292 | 0.300 | 0.008 | 0.207 | 11.8% | 91.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.300 | 0.280 | -0.02 | 0.193 | 9.9% | 84.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.285 | 0.288 | 0.003 | 0.196 | 12.4% | 86.8% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.302 | 0.331 | 0.029 | 0.29 | 9.4% | 81.4% |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.278 | 0.378 | 0.1 | 0.268 | 10.3% | 85.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.307 | 0.302 | -0.005 | 0.194 | 6.8% | 90.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.299 | 0.311 | 0.012 | 0.218 | 15.0% | 86.8% |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.305 | 0.250 | -0.055 | 0.194 | 8.2% | 83.7% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.295 | 0.323 | 0.028 | 0.227 | 6.1% | 87.5% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.278 | 0.266 | -0.012 | 0.208 | 12.8% | 82.3% |
| Rob Whalen | ATL | 0.287 | 0.231 | -0.056 | 0.214 | 0.0% | 95.2% |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.313 | 0.328 | 0.015 | 0.203 | 6.7% | 87.0% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.316 | 0.342 | 0.026 | 0.239 | 9.9% | 89.6% |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.303 | 0.284 | -0.019 | 0.2 | 7.4% | 87.1% |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | 0.305 | 0.258 | -0.047 | 0.234 | 12.3% | 91.6% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The top two pitchers are facing each other tonight, made much more difficult on FanDuel when you’re paying that much and need the Win out of one of these guys. There is nobody within $2.3K of either on either site ($2.5K on DraftKings) and I’ve already attempted to establish that one is a bit over-priced. There is at least one other very talented pitcher in an incredibly interesting spot though.
Value Tier One
Jose Fernandez (1) is the Alpha today and generally can’t be priced high enough for his upside. The Giants have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, but he’s favored in a park he almost never loses in against an overall slumping offense. His projected value is still off the charts, though a bit closer to other interesting arms at his higher cost. If players start their lineup here and then build around, it will rarely be a mistake.
Value Tier Two
Julio Urias (4) is a tricky projection today. By pure numbers, without any restrictions, I’d call him the second most talented arm on the board in the best spot and put him in the top spot in terms of points per dollar. However, if we’re assuming maybe a 75 pitch limit, that’s 75% of an opportunity at $7K. If he were allowed 100 pitches, what would we think of him here for $9.3K ($7K is 75% of $9.3K)? In five innings, 75 pitches, he still has the ability to more than cover his cost in this spot, but he’d probably land here without limitations and a higher price tag.
Tyler Duffey has failed us miserably before, but costs the absolute minimum on DraftKings against an ice cold offense. The collective numbers of the Houston bats over the last week couldn’t get much worse. They’ve basically made opposing pitchers the equivalent of Kershaw facing the Phillies. A pairing with Fernandez on DraftKings leaves room for some interesting bats.
Value Tier Three
Tyler Anderson (6t) is a quality pitcher with a league average strikeout rate, who has compensated for Coors by not walking anyone, keeping the ball on the ground, and managing contact extremely well. He’s in a bad spot, but I’d argue that’s the reason he costs just a bit more than $6K, when he’s pitched like an $8K to $10K pitcher in a neutral spot. The Rangers are as dangerous as any offense in that park, but he’s gone six innings with two runs or less in five of his seven starts (with a max of four runs just once overall). His game logs have been remarkably consistent, though you could argue his quality of competition has been below average for the most part, which is why we’ll keep him third tier tonight.
Collin McHugh (5) is putting up strong peripherals with an insane BABIP. He’s facing an average, but red hot offense that will swing and miss some with a $2K price difference between the sites. He’s one of the stronger point per dollar plays on DraftKings for just $6K, but more middle of the pack, behind several arms at his higher cost.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Kevin Gausman (3) gets a significant park upgrade tonight, but part of what he gains in terms of potential power and run suppression, he loses in terms of strikeout projection. At $8.5K, he should still be able to at least come close to covering his price, if not a bit better.
Michael Wacha (6t) is maybe an average pitcher, at least at home, where he’s slightly better or just about a number four type guy on a good team like the Cardinals. That’s about what he costs today around the $7K point and slightly less on DraftKings. Add the great spot that he’s in and there’s some potential value there, but realize he’s struck out four or less in nine of his last 15 starts.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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