Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, June 27th
Monday’s are generally my favorite slates with a comfortable 10 games tonight, but today seems even more intriguing with some interesting arms and interesting matchups. While I can’t promise those are all necessarily good things, it’s hopeful we’ll have some answers by the time we’re done and apologies if I’m still a bit distracted from last night’s amazing Game of Thrones finale (no spoilers below).
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -7.7 | 4.06 | 6.53 | 1.65 | 1.04 | 4.14 | 4.78 | KAN | 110 | 94 | 121 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -3 | 4.9 | 5. | 1.36 | 0.97 | 4.53 | 5.6 | BOS | 116 | 111 | 91 |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | TEX | 11.1 | 5.59 | 6.01 | 1.56 | 1.02 | 5.58 | NYY | 96 | 85 | 83 | |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.4 | 3.73 | 6.17 | 1.3 | 0.92 | 4.07 | 3.74 | ANA | 101 | 97 | 106 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | -2.7 | 4.66 | 5.71 | 0.86 | 1.02 | 5.19 | 5.59 | CHC | 110 | 105 | 83 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | -12.4 | 3.54 | 6. | 1.18 | 0.89 | 5.54 | 2.58 | SFO | 110 | 105 | 122 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 6.2 | 4.18 | 5.34 | 0.91 | 1.04 | 4.77 | 4.37 | STL | 116 | 94 | 121 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.9 | 4.36 | 5.7 | 1.14 | 0.97 | 4.36 | 3.89 | TAM | 87 | 122 | 72 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -2.4 | 4.33 | 5.54 | 1.75 | 1.02 | 4.77 | 5.32 | TEX | 90 | 90 | 110 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 7.6 | 2.93 | 6.77 | 2.2 | 1.02 | 2.77 | 3.54 | CIN | 84 | 80 | 78 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 8.5 | 3.82 | 6.69 | 1.17 | 0.89 | 4.02 | 4.88 | OAK | 96 | 85 | 125 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 4.3 | 3.92 | 5.82 | 1.44 | 1.02 | 3.57 | 3.35 | NYM | 94 | 95 | 77 |
| John Gant | ATL | 4.1 | 3.91 | 5.4 | 1.07 | 0.96 | 2.85 | 4.21 | CLE | 83 | 106 | 151 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 1.6 | 3.7 | 5.24 | 1.57 | 1.37 | 3.54 | 5.66 | TOR | 98 | 105 | 98 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.8 | 4.42 | 6.23 | 0.64 | 1.37 | 4.88 | 3.8 | COL | 107 | 100 | 153 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 2.3 | 3.68 | 5.78 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 3.38 | 3.52 | HOU | 98 | 101 | 157 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -5 | 2.77 | 6.32 | 1.6 | 1.02 | 3.02 | 2.37 | WAS | 93 | 92 | 92 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -5.3 | 4.02 | 5.34 | 1.25 | 1.07 | 3.95 | 3.13 | PHI | 87 | 59 | 129 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 9.6 | 4.08 | 6. | 1.05 | 0.96 | 4.22 | 2.47 | ATL | 72 | 76 | 85 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | -4.2 | 3.63 | 5.22 | 0.73 | 1.07 | 4.55 | ARI | 93 | 92 | 113 |
Collin McHugh has allowed three ERs over his last 13.1 innings, striking out 12 of 55 Angels and Cardinals. It’s a bit validating to see better results out of him as his BABIP drops like we’ve been calling for it to do all along without much of a contact or batted ball profile to support it. The interesting thing is that he’s missing a few more bats recently too, bringing his season 10.9 SwStr% in line with what it was in his breakout season two years ago. He goes on the road to face an offense that doesn’t strike out much (15.8% vs RHP), but isn’t very potent in a negative run environment either.
Jake Arrieta is having another strong season, though once again, one not consistent with his ERA estimators. He’s lasted just five innings in five of 15 starts, including three of his last six with his walk rate increased to 9.1% now, as he’s walked four batters in five starts. He’s struck out at least six in 12 of 15 starts and has the sixth best GB rate in the majors (56.5%) with the lowest hard contact rate in baseball (21.6%). If he’s throwing strikes, he’s probably dominating. The Reds are a great matchup (15.5 K-BB at home, 16.1 K-BB% vs RHP) in a potentially tough park (15.8 HR/FB at home). His great batted ball and contact profile should offset a power friendly park with a more neutral overall run environment.
Joe Ross dominates RHBs (.234 wOBA, 20.9 K-BB%, 48.3 GB%, 0.0 Hard-Soft%), but gets hammered by LHBs (.349 wOBA, 4.8 K-BB%, 39.2 GB%, 24.8 Hard-Soft%) and while he’s likely to face many more LHBs than RHBs (aside from Cespedes and D’arnaud), this is an offense who has frequently hit James Loney in the middle of the order recently and just demoted Michael Conforto. Despite some remaining power, they strike out 22.8% against RHPs and it might be a spot he can navigate.
John Gant was not supposed to be very good. He was traded for role player free agents to be at the deadline last year when he had just a 6.4 K-BB% in 59.1 AA innings for the Mets up to that point. He’s a 27% strikeout rate in 83 minor league innings for the Braves between AA and AAA since, retaining his bat missing skills through three major league starts this season (13.2 K-BB%). He’s doing this with about an average batted ball (1.20 GB/FB) and contact profile (29.8 Hard%). Continuation of these traits would make him a fairly useful pitcher going forward in a favorable park. The Tribe has a 15.3 K-BB% on the road, but a 14.5 HR/FB vs RHPs, while being one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last week (25.0 HR/FB).
Matt Shoemaker has struck out at least six in each of his last seven starts, but at least eight in each of his last four home starts. The slight concern is that his increased velocity since April has dropped off over his last two starts, but has still been above his previous rates. He threw 57.6% fastballs in his last start with just 30.2% splitters, his lowest rate of splitters since May 11th, perhaps just to change it up. He faces the same Houston offense that has been red hot (44.3 Hard% last seven days) with a ton of power (15.1 HR/FB vs RHP), but also strikes out a ton (24.3 K% vs RHP) in a park that hinders power and overall scoring.
Noah Syndergaard has the third best K-BB (27.5%) and SwStr (15%), along with the 11th best GB rate (54.2%) with the 16th lowest hard hit rate (27.4%) and is the one true King of the North. He struck out just four of 25 Royals in his last start, but still had a 14.3 SwStr%, 63.2 GB%, and 23.8 Hard%, so I’m not all too worried about his being removed with elbow discomfort as everything checked out okay. He may be watched more closely tonight, but if he’s pitching well, this is an important series against the Nationals, so I don’t expect him to be handled very cautiously. He had his elbow checked back in May too and came out dominating afterward. The Nationals are a slightly below average offense at home vs RHP. He struck out 10 of 24 without allowing a run in seven innings in his only matchup with Washington this season.
Trevor Bauer has struck out at least nine in three of his last four starts and is pitching the best baseball of his career over the last month. He’s walked just one in three of his last four and gone at least seven innings in each of his last five. He’s still allowing a lot of hard contact (32.1 Hard%), but is generating a lot more ground balls (48.9% this year, 39.7% career) and also has tonight’s top matchup against the weakest offense in baseball (6.3 HR/FB at home, 6.5 HR/FB vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 12.7 HR/FB)
Marco Estrada (.183 BABIP – 80.7 LOB% – 9.2 HR/FB) might set your entire lineup on fire and make you want to jump out a window with all those fly balls in Colorado (0.71 GB/FB, 33.7 Hard%). He’s allowed at least one HR in each of his last four starts and now has a double digit walk rate (10.1%) on the season.
Dan Straily (.235 BABIP – 74.7 LOB% – 9.5 HR/FB) has just a 5.6 K-BB% over the last month ever since striking out a season high 11 Dodgers on May 25th. In fact, aside from striking out six Phillies two starts prior, he hasn’t struck out more than five in any of his other 11 starts despite a league average strikeout rate on the season. His 10.6 BB% nearly matches the Cubs 11.1% vs RHP this year.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Robbie Ray has an uncomfortable 35.3 Hard% in one of the better run scoring environments in baseball. Furthermore, a small reduction in SwStr% over the last month does not fit an increase in K%. He did pitch well, striking out seven of 26 Phillies two starts back and that would be the one reason you might consider him today. The Phillies are the worst offense in baseball vs LHP (16.7 K-BB%, 6.9 HR/FB, 6.2 Hard-Soft%). He’s more of a toss-up on FanDuel ($7.8K) than on DraftKings ($9.3K).
Daniel Mengden has impressively struck out 21 of 78 batters through three starts with a 19.2 K-BB%. He finished last year at high A ball after coming over from the Astros and pitched just four games at AA before being promoted to AAA for another seven and then right to the big leagues. While he’s struck out batters at an above average rate in the minors at every stop, the 2014 fourth round pick was not a highly touted prospect in Fangraphs pre-season list (14th). His stuff was called “hittable” with his future as a starter being debatable. The A’s pushing him though the minors so quickly would speak better for him as does his performance through three starts, though he does have an 85.9 LOB%. I’m leaning towards a pass at a very average cost against a good offense that will make him work (7.1 K-BB% at home, 6.7 K-BB% vs RHP, 12.9 K% last seven days). It’s a great park though, that nearly neutralizes the matchup (6.4 HR/FB, 4.7 Hard-Soft% at home), so I’m still wavering a bit on his potential usage.
Danny Duffy continues to miss bats at an amazing rate, but has walked nine of his last 65 batters, along with 22 strikeouts and has pitched just 9.2 innings over his last two starts. He was already five to six innings pitcher, but the increase in walk rate has driven up his pitch count to make it even more uncomfortable, while he’s now also allowed nine HRs over his last six starts. While this was fine when he still cost $6K or less, his price increase with all of those strikeouts, makes him a bigger risk and he faces one of the top road offenses in baseball.
Jeff Samardzija has not struck out more than four in any of his last five starts. He has a decent matchup in a great park, but the A’s have just an 18.0 K% vs RHP, so you’re really dependent on batted ball outcomes tonight at an above average cost and he seems to have reverted to last year’s poor form over the last month, aside from one strong start.
Eduardo Rodriguez has just a 6.8 K-BB% and has allowed a lot of hard contact (34.1%) in the air (0.69 GB/FB), leading to a 16.7 HR/FB (seven HRs) through four starts. The Rays strike out a lot, but are the top offense in baseball vs LHP.
Jon Gray is almost tempting tonight, especially with Smoak likely benched in the NL park, but he’s struck out and walked a total of seven each over 10 innings covering 46 batters in his last two starts, both on the road.
Adam Wainwright is back to pitching reasonably well, but has walked three in each of his last two starts, striking out just 10 of 51 batters. Over the last month he has a hard hit rate of 34.9% despite the 2.94 ERA. He’s gone at least six innings in seven straight starts and aside from three straight starts with six or more strikeouts ending in his last start, he hasn’t struck out more than five in any other start this year. While he may not be as “done” as he looked in April, this appears a marginal pitcher in a marginal spot.
Ivan Nova seems to have hit a wall (or re-animated Mountain, considering today’s theme), allowing at least one HR in each of his last nine starts and four or more runs in five of six with a total of nine innings over his last two.
Blake Snell has walked and struck out three a piece in each of his last two starts with a first strike rate less than 45% of the time each time, nor has he had a SwStr above 7% in any of his three starts. He’s got a lot of talent, but some stuff to work on. Oh, and he’s going into battle against Boston. I hear they have dragons.
Vincent Velasquez struck out just three of 18 batters in a AA rehab start and had been held to less than five innings in his last three healthy starts before going on the DL with a bicep injury at the beginning of the month. Even if he pitches well, he might have a short leash tonight.
Chi Chi Gonzalez is back because most of the Texas pitching staff perished in a recent wildfire attack. He had just an 8.6 K-BB% at AAA this year, walking more than he struck out in 67 major league innings last year, and should be shipped back beyond the wall soon.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 17.0% | 5.9% | Road | 18.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 11.8% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 17.4% | 10.1% | Home | 14.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | Rangers | L2 Years | 10.7% | 11.4% | Road | 10.1% | 12.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 21.0% | 5.7% | Road | 19.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 5.5% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 19.9% | 10.8% | Home | 17.8% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 10.9% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.9% | 7.7% | Road | 18.5% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 3.9% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 20.2% | 8.2% | Home | 18.0% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.5% | Road | 19.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 15.4% | 6.6% | Home | 14.9% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.2% | 6.7% | Road | 25.2% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 15.2% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 19.7% | 4.7% | Home | 20.6% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 4.4% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.1% | 7.0% | Home | 20.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 3.9% |
| John Gant | Braves | L2 Years | 23.8% | 9.0% | Home | 33.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 22.1% | 8.8% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 24.2% | 8.0% | Home | 20.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 15.2% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.9% | Road | 19.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 8.3% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 21.8% | 5.2% | Home | 26.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 5.6% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.8% | 4.5% | Road | 27.4% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.7% | 9.1% | Home | 23.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 28.8% | 5.5% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.5% | Road | 23.1% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.0% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.8% | 8.8% | Road | 22.5% | 10.8% | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 17.2% | 6.7% | RH | 19.8% | 6.0% | L7Days | 16.0% | 4.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 7.9% | LH | 19.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 17.7% | 12.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.3% | 8.8% | RH | 18.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.7% |
| Angels | Home | 15.9% | 8.2% | RH | 15.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 15.1% | 4.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.1% | 10.2% | RH | 22.5% | 11.1% | L7Days | 24.5% | 11.1% |
| Giants | Home | 17.1% | 10.0% | RH | 16.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 12.9% | 5.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.7% | 9.0% | LH | 21.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Rays | Home | 25.8% | 7.8% | LH | 23.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.2% | 6.0% | RH | 18.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.7% |
| Reds | Home | 23.3% | 6.8% | RH | 23.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 18.9% | 6.6% | RH | 18.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 14.8% | 8.4% |
| Mets | Road | 23.4% | 7.9% | RH | 22.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.3% |
| Indians | Road | 22.5% | 7.2% | RH | 20.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.8% | 4.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.3% | 9.6% | RH | 22.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.0% | 9.7% | RH | 19.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.1% | 10.2% |
| Astros | Road | 23.5% | 9.5% | RH | 24.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 19.6% | 11.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.8% | 9.6% | RH | 20.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 21.0% | 6.1% | LH | 23.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 15.4% | 7.0% |
| Braves | Home | 19.9% | 7.8% | RH | 19.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 14.7% | 4.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.2% | 7.6% | RH | 23.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 2016 | 31.0% | 9.0% | 14.1% | Road | 30.4% | 13.6% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 8.6% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 30.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 2016 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | Home | 40.0% | 0.0% | 26.7% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 0.0% | 5.2% |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 2016 | Road | 25.3% | 8.6% | 11.2% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Collin McHugh | Astros | L2 Years | 25.5% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 2016 | 27.8% | 11.1% | 8.6% | Road | 29.1% | 10.9% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 7.7% | 12.9% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 28.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 2016 | 29.4% | 9.5% | 11.9% | Home | 28.5% | 6.9% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.9% | 9.4% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 32.0% | 17.6% | 16.0% | 2016 | 32.0% | 17.6% | 16.0% | Road | 22.2% | 14.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 20.0% | 21.9% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 2016 | 31.8% | 14.9% | 6.1% | Home | 30.7% | 10.6% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 30.8% | 20.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.9% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 2016 | 34.1% | 16.7% | 13.6% | Road | 36.5% | 7.5% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 16.7% | 21.8% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.5% | 16.1% | 13.0% | 2016 | 32.9% | 20.7% | 12.3% | Home | 29.9% | 14.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 23.1% | 20.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.2% | 0.7% | 2016 | 21.6% | 5.0% | -0.4% | Road | 23.0% | 7.6% | 0.6% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 0.0% | 9.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 26.9% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 2016 | 29.6% | 13.3% | 11.2% | Home | 28.7% | 11.7% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 25.0% | 10.5% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.5% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 2016 | 28.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | Home | 27.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 18.8% | 17.9% |
| John Gant | Braves | L2 Years | 34.6% | 10.3% | 18.5% | 2016 | 34.6% | 10.3% | 18.5% | Home | 25.0% | 33.3% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.5% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 2016 | 31.6% | 17.6% | 16.1% | Home | 31.9% | 19.5% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 22.2% | 9.7% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 2016 | 33.7% | 9.2% | 13.8% | Road | 30.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 11.8% | 22.5% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 31.2% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 2016 | 32.6% | 12.5% | 16.5% | Home | 33.7% | 12.0% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 25.6% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 2016 | 27.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | Road | 28.2% | 13.0% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 10.0% | 17.5% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.0% | 11.5% | 19.0% | 2016 | 35.3% | 16.7% | 18.5% | Home | 39.1% | 13.2% | 26.2% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 10.5% | 10.6% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 29.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 2016 | 32.1% | 7.9% | 13.5% | Road | 28.4% | 7.0% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 2016 | 27.3% | 11.4% | 6.2% | Road | 26.0% | 12.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 31.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% | RH | 30.5% | 9.8% | 10.6% | L7Days | 43.0% | 17.1% | 29.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.4% | 14.8% | 12.9% | LH | 32.8% | 11.7% | 11.1% | L7Days | 38.3% | 9.1% | 15.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 27.4% | 13.3% | 7.3% | RH | 26.0% | 12.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 34.1% | 13.5% | 20.1% |
| Angels | Home | 29.3% | 11.0% | 10.4% | RH | 30.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | L7Days | 25.1% | 12.3% | 4.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.8% | 14.7% | 14.5% | RH | 31.5% | 13.6% | 12.7% | L7Days | 26.7% | 9.8% | 5.6% |
| Giants | Home | 26.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | RH | 30.6% | 9.0% | 11.3% | L7Days | 28.1% | 4.5% | 9.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.5% | 14.8% | 13.3% | LH | 31.2% | 11.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 28.8% | 16.4% | 14.4% |
| Rays | Home | 34.6% | 12.7% | 15.1% | LH | 34.3% | 13.5% | 19.7% | L7Days | 28.7% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 30.8% | 14.2% | 11.7% | RH | 28.6% | 12.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 38.2% | 13.6% | 22.4% |
| Reds | Home | 31.6% | 15.8% | 14.6% | RH | 31.5% | 12.8% | 13.5% | L7Days | 26.5% | 8.6% | 5.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.8% | 12.1% | 11.0% | RH | 29.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 32.6% | 13.6% | 11.8% |
| Mets | Road | 33.7% | 14.9% | 18.9% | RH | 34.2% | 13.9% | 16.4% | L7Days | 36.2% | 9.0% | 17.8% |
| Indians | Road | 31.4% | 12.4% | 13.0% | RH | 31.8% | 14.5% | 15.0% | L7Days | 35.8% | 20.9% | 19.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.2% | 14.8% | 11.5% | RH | 33.7% | 14.5% | 15.7% | L7Days | 26.4% | 12.5% | 7.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.8% | 15.8% | 18.6% | RH | 32.9% | 15.4% | 15.3% | L7Days | 39.3% | 25.0% | 19.2% |
| Astros | Road | 35.6% | 14.8% | 18.6% | RH | 35.4% | 15.1% | 18.2% | L7Days | 44.3% | 18.6% | 24.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.0% | 13.1% | 12.6% | RH | 32.9% | 13.6% | 15.8% | L7Days | 38.0% | 8.8% | 20.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.8% | 12.5% | 10.7% | LH | 26.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | L7Days | 35.4% | 15.2% | 17.2% |
| Braves | Home | 27.4% | 6.3% | 8.4% | RH | 26.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 33.9% | 10.0% | 13.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.5% | 16.9% | 19.6% | RH | 33.4% | 13.7% | 15.3% | L7Days | 30.1% | 17.8% | 14.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 16.9% | 8.0% | 2.11 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 2.38 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 17.4% | 5.9% | 2.95 | 12.0% | 5.6% | 2.14 |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | TEX | ||||||
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 21.5% | 10.9% | 1.97 | 23.7% | 11.3% | 2.10 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 20.6% | 9.9% | 2.08 | 16.0% | 8.3% | 1.93 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 26.9% | 11.5% | 2.34 | 26.9% | 11.5% | 2.34 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 29.8% | 15.9% | 1.87 | 31.1% | 14.3% | 2.17 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 16.1% | 7.7% | 2.09 | 16.1% | 7.7% | 2.09 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 15.7% | 8.6% | 1.83 | 16.4% | 7.8% | 2.10 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 27.7% | 11.3% | 2.45 | 32.0% | 13.0% | 2.46 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 19.6% | 9.5% | 2.06 | 13.0% | 7.7% | 1.69 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 20.4% | 11.0% | 1.85 | 23.6% | 12.8% | 1.84 |
| John Gant | ATL | 23.8% | 10.0% | 2.38 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 2.07 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 25.9% | 12.1% | 2.14 | 24.4% | 13.1% | 1.86 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 22.9% | 10.3% | 2.22 | 24.4% | 10.7% | 2.28 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.74 | 29.1% | 16.3% | 1.79 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 30.8% | 15.0% | 2.05 | 27.4% | 15.3% | 1.79 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 25.6% | 10.1% | 2.53 | 28.3% | 9.5% | 2.98 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 22.8% | 9.7% | 2.35 | 24.0% | 9.4% | 2.55 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 28.4% | 11.2% | 2.54 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 2.38 |
No outliers worth that haven’t previously been mentioned.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.73 | 4.48 | -0.25 | 4.28 | -0.45 | 3.8 | -0.93 | 2.94 | 3.61 | 0.67 | 3.57 | 0.63 | 3.4 | 0.46 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 2.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 4.48 | 2.08 | 2.93 | 0.53 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 4.89 | 2.19 | 3.73 | 1.03 |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | TEX | ||||||||||||||
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 4.7 | 3.91 | -0.79 | 3.99 | -0.71 | 3.74 | -0.96 | 3.98 | 3.65 | -0.33 | 3.76 | -0.22 | 4.08 | 0.1 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 3.83 | 4.66 | 0.83 | 4.82 | 0.99 | 4.34 | 0.51 | 5.34 | 5.51 | 0.17 | 5.55 | 0.21 | 4.48 | -0.86 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 3 | 3.54 | 0.54 | 3.53 | 0.53 | 4.13 | 1.13 | 3 | 3.54 | 0.54 | 3.53 | 0.53 | 4.13 | 1.13 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.38 | 3.1 | -0.28 | 3.58 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 0.52 | 4.32 | 3.14 | -1.18 | 3.64 | -0.68 | 5.11 | 0.79 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 6.41 | 5.22 | -1.19 | 5.56 | -0.85 | 6.36 | -0.05 | 6.41 | 5.23 | -1.18 | 5.56 | -0.85 | 6.36 | -0.05 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 5.18 | 3.94 | -1.24 | 4.05 | -1.13 | 4.98 | -0.2 | 7.24 | 4.51 | -2.73 | 4.59 | -2.65 | 5.91 | -1.33 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 1.74 | 3.37 | 1.63 | 3.13 | 1.39 | 2.51 | 0.77 | 1.8 | 3.31 | 1.51 | 3.02 | 1.22 | 1.96 | 0.16 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 3.59 | 4.03 | 0.44 | 3.9 | 0.31 | 3.96 | 0.37 | 6.41 | 4.85 | -1.56 | 4.86 | -1.55 | 6.58 | 0.17 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 3.11 | 4.15 | 1.04 | 3.95 | 0.84 | 3.7 | 0.59 | 4.15 | 3.86 | -0.29 | 3.69 | -0.46 | 3.92 | -0.23 |
| John Gant | ATL | 4.45 | 3.91 | -0.54 | 4.05 | -0.4 | 3.73 | -0.72 | 3.26 | 4.25 | 0.99 | 4.09 | 0.83 | 3.13 | -0.13 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 4.8 | 3.57 | -1.23 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 3.87 | -0.93 | 3.3 | 3.72 | 0.42 | 3.65 | 0.35 | 5.03 | 1.73 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.7 | 4.42 | 1.72 | 4.66 | 1.96 | 4.05 | 1.35 | 2.6 | 4.39 | 1.79 | 4.65 | 2.05 | 4.37 | 1.77 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.43 | 3.54 | -0.89 | 3.53 | -0.9 | 3.49 | -0.94 | 2.44 | 2.76 | 0.32 | 2.75 | 0.31 | 2.39 | -0.05 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.08 | 2.45 | 0.37 | 2.22 | 0.14 | 1.86 | -0.22 | 2.35 | 2.73 | 0.38 | 2.45 | 0.1 | 2.05 | -0.3 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 4.59 | 3.87 | -0.72 | 3.72 | -0.87 | 4.18 | -0.41 | 5.18 | 3.36 | -1.82 | 3.35 | -1.83 | 4.1 | -1.08 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 3.2 | 3.85 | 0.65 | 3.86 | 0.66 | 3.29 | 0.09 | 2.22 | 3.56 | 1.34 | 3.51 | 1.29 | 2.35 | 0.13 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 3.65 | 3.55 | -0.1 | 3.77 | 0.12 | 3.57 | -0.08 | 8.68 | 4.12 | -4.56 | 4.3 | -4.38 | 4.95 | -3.73 |
Collin McHugh has been more in line with his estimators over the last month with a .279 BABIP, though it’s still flying a bit too high at .348 for the season. His 77.4 LOB% over this period has pulled his season mark above 70% as well. As mentioned above and every time he’s pitched recently, there was nothing visible in his immediate batted ball or contact profile that suggested a high BABIP, so I’m buying more into his SIERA and xFIP over the last month than his season numbers.
Jake Arrieta does not have the typical low batted ball profile (lots of fly balls and popups), but generates weak ground balls probably better than anybody in the league with a top defense behind him. That’s another way to generate a low BABIP, though it’s difficult to endorse anything under .250. His 82.3 LOB% is less of an issue for someone with such a high K% and all those weak ground balls, but still may be a bit too high. His 5.0 HR/FB isn’t that out of line with his marks since joining the Cubs, but is still less than two-thirds of last year’s 7.8 HR/FB. I don’t expect to see an ERA above three the rest of the season, but perhaps something close to a run above ERA now could be expected.
Joe Ross doesn’t have any major outliers in BABIP, LOB%, or HR/FB, though his 77.1% strand rate might be a little high for his league average strikeout rate and overall profile, but with such extreme LHB/RHB splits, it’s not really as simple as his overall numbers. His BABIP against LHBs is over 100 points higher than vs RHBs (.339 – .217).
Matt Shoemaker still has a BABIP a bit too high (.329) and a strand rate a bit too low (70.3%) for all those strikeouts. From a BABIP standpoint, he has a high LD rate, as seen below, but with other excellent indicators and that’s how we’d like to see it because LD% is the less predictive stats (more descriptive) of the three measures. Since the starts of May, he has just a 21.3 LD%, but still a .331 BABIP. His 32.1 Hard% since then suggests batters are still hitting him fairly well, but making contact much less frequently.
Trevor Bauer has a career low 7.9 HR/FB.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.286 | 0.309 | 0.023 | 0.255 | 7.9% | 92.5% |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.302 | 0.340 | 0.038 | 0.298 | 7.1% | 88.7% |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez | TEX | 0.282 | |||||
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.309 | 0.348 | 0.039 | 0.185 | 10.1% | 88.0% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.291 | 0.235 | -0.056 | 0.233 | 8.4% | 85.5% |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 0.308 | 0.298 | -0.01 | 0.229 | 5.9% | 86.1% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.290 | 0.290 | 0 | 0.201 | 11.9% | 75.4% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.290 | 0.259 | -0.031 | 0.193 | 9.5% | 88.5% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.304 | 0.309 | 0.005 | 0.179 | 12.1% | 92.8% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.254 | 0.244 | -0.01 | 0.184 | 3.3% | 85.1% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.289 | 0.278 | -0.011 | 0.199 | 8.2% | 86.9% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.288 | 0.277 | -0.011 | 0.25 | 9.3% | 85.7% |
| John Gant | ATL | 0.286 | 0.321 | 0.035 | 0.221 | 6.9% | 88.0% |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.320 | 0.292 | -0.028 | 0.224 | 5.9% | 86.9% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.281 | 0.183 | -0.098 | 0.149 | 17.5% | 85.1% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.295 | 0.329 | 0.034 | 0.252 | 12.5% | 83.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.304 | 0.319 | 0.015 | 0.198 | 5.1% | 84.0% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.303 | 0.350 | 0.047 | 0.238 | 5.6% | 85.5% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.275 | 0.281 | 0.006 | 0.187 | 9.2% | 85.3% |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 0.306 | 0.314 | 0.008 | 0.214 | 18.6% | 80.8% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We have a bit of everything tonight, which is great. There are top arms, a couple of underpriced mid-range arms, and maybe even a bit of a sleeper tonight. If only DraftKings hadn’t gone incredibly overboard with Trevor Bauer tonight.
Value Tier One
John Gant (6) has shown some upside in his three starts and is at a $6K cost tonight. He hasn’t always possessed these qualities, but has been impressive ever since last year’s trade. Cleveland is an above average and hot offense, but they’ve struggled on the road. Perhaps part of that is playing in difficult National League parks, where they lose a middle of the order bat (likely Napoli).
Value Tier Two
Noah Syndergaard (1) drops ever so slightly because he was removed from his last start due to an elbow issue, but everything checked out okay and aside from the actual strikeouts, the rest of his performance was as strong as usual in that game.
Value Tier Three
Matt Shoemaker (3) has begun to level off a bit over his last couple of starts and now costs $9.9K on DraftKings, but still has tremendous upside in a good park against a strikeout prone offense.
Jake Arrieta (2) has some drawbacks in his walk rate and more frequent short outings lately, which is a major risk when you’re paying $12K or more, but even though his ERA runs more than a run lower than his estimators, his SIERA and xFIP don’t really capture his dominance on batted balls.
Collin McHugh (7) has been pitching well recently and DraftKings has not only not shot him through the roof, but he remains below $7.5K on both sites. The Angels are a tougher fantasy matchup than real life because they don’t strike out much, but they don’t produce much either and he struck out six of them last time out, which would probably cover his price tag tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Joe Ross (5) will face a mostly left-handed lineup, but also a mostly struggling one at a not unreasonable cost, at least on FanDuel for $8.1K. He’s a much more difficult decision for $9.5K on DraftKings.
Trevor Bauer (4) may not be a completely trustable pitcher, but he has shown major improvements over the last month and does have the top matchup tonight. He may be over-priced on DraftKings for nearly $13K, but even realizing that I just used the word “maybe” there speaks of the enormous strides he’s made as I wouldn’t consider paying even $8K for him here back in May.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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