Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 21st
Tampa Bay’s little experiment over the weekend has been met with scoff from baseball traditionalists, which usually means someone might be onto something. Regardless, we now have to wonder the implications of one to two inning starters. How much difficulty does this cause for daily fantasy players? While it may be more work, the argument could be made that it makes it easier if we know who is going to be working the majority of the game behind “the Opener” as Brian Kenny would like to them. It’s basically like knowing the starter and the first reliever in.
If this becomes a more popular trend, how will it affect you construct lineups if it even does at all?
While I generally like these smaller slates to start the week due to the extra prep time per player it affords, but on first glance at Monday’s probables, this one may be more difficult to find the usual enthusiasm for unless we can find a diamond or two.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | -7.3 | 5.14 | 5.5 | 46.4% | 0.98 | 4.98 | 4.88 | White Sox | 92 | 100 | 79 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 4.68 | 5.5 | 44.1% | 1.15 | 4.62 | 4.13 | Yankees | 105 | 114 | 165 | |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 4 | 4.64 | 4.1 | 36.4% | 1.05 | 5.84 | 4.61 | Twins | 85 | 97 | 69 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 5.1 | 4.47 | 5.3 | 36.6% | 1.02 | 4.78 | 6.41 | Diamondbacks | 91 | 72 | 32 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | -5 | 5.10 | 5.0 | 41.4% | 0.92 | 5.10 | Mets | 101 | 105 | 119 | |
| German Marquez | Rockies | -0.2 | 4.27 | 5.4 | 46.3% | 0.90 | 4.27 | 4.63 | Dodgers | 92 | 103 | 113 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -5 | 4.16 | 5.8 | 47.2% | 1.01 | 4.01 | 4.32 | Padres | 76 | 96 | 88 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | -1.8 | 5.35 | 5.1 | 31.1% | 0.98 | 5.93 | 5.31 | Orioles | 76 | 99 | 63 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | -0.7 | 4.58 | 5.4 | 33.7% | 0.92 | 4.97 | 5.20 | Cardinals | 96 | 97 | 111 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | -1 | 4.87 | 5.4 | 39.4% | 0.92 | 5.03 | 6.79 | Marlins | 72 | 90 | 98 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | -4 | 4.38 | 5.5 | 39.8% | 1.05 | 3.49 | 3.49 | Tigers | 88 | 91 | 68 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 6.2 | 3.68 | 6.1 | 47.1% | 1.15 | 3.94 | 4.81 | Rangers | 80 | 77 | 55 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 4.5 | 4.34 | 5.4 | 40.3% | 0.97 | 4.74 | 4.14 | Phillies | 113 | 94 | 77 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 1.2 | 3.58 | 6.4 | 51.3% | 0.92 | 2.55 | 4.57 | Royals | 99 | 89 | 71 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | -3.3 | 4.04 | 5.1 | 43.0% | 0.97 | 3.34 | 1.71 | Braves | 117 | 104 | 104 |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | -6.6 | 2.91 | 3.0 | 50.7% | 1.01 | 1.07 | 2.81 | Nationals | 87 | 80 | 25 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | -3.6 | 3.39 | 5.4 | 57.1% | 0.90 | 2.83 | 2.73 | Rockies | 83 | 65 | 66 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 8.4 | 3.65 | 6.2 | 45.6% | 1.02 | 3.39 | 3.29 | Brewers | 84 | 99 | 111 |
German Marquez has allowed five runs or more in three of his four home starts (Padres being the exception) and has not completed five innings in any of them. On the road, he has a 2.25 ERA in 28 innings with a 16.4 K-BB%. Since last season, he has a marginal 4.27 xFIP, 12.8 K-BB%, and .314 xwOBA on the road. This is all VERY league average, which is all fine for tonight’s matchup in LA (NL).
Gio Gonzalez has just a 10.3 SwStr% that’s middle of the board on a nine game slate, but his .299 xwOBA is a top five mark. He’s traditionally been a guy who keeps the ball in the park until the last two seasons where he’s allowed 40 home runs. His 52.1 GB% is the second best of his career this year and helps reduce that number again this year, but a 4.7 HR/FB is still just half his career rate. The most important aspect here is that he’s facing the Padres. They’re a bit more formidable against LHP (96 wRC+, 14.9 HR/FB), but still strike out a ton (25.5%).
Ian Kennedy is ticking up closer to his career average SwStr% over the last month, which more comfortably puts him around a league average strikeout rate. He’s going to allow some HRs, but can be useful in big parks. St Louis is one of those and is also a more overall negative run environment than Kansas City. He’s going to allow some home runs, but five of his eight this year have come in Baltimore and Toronto. He might have a chance is all I’m suggesting. Although, his .387 xwOBA, 89.7 mph aEV, 12% Barrels/BBE and 41.3% 95+ mph EV are all bottom three marks on the board.
Jose Berrios had allowed multiple home runs in three of four starts, beginning with the Yankees, entering his last start. Three of the last four occurred on hanging curveballs to right-handed batters after previously dominating batters from that side. He began his last start with a clean first inning on nothing but fastballs (11 of them) before successfully mixing in a number of curves. How many and what did they look like? His Statcast page says…”504 Error”. He has had some issues in the past with tipping his pitches and that would make some sense as an issue again, but it’s difficult to decipher and hasn’t expressly been pointed out again anywhere I can find. If things are working, he’s in a favorable spot against the Tigers (6.5 BB%, 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP). They do have a 22.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but there may be some park calibration issues because those numbers drop in away games (16.4 Hard-Soft% on the road).
Masahiro Tanaka is an internal struggle today. He’s coming off a series of difficult starts and is extremely home run prone, which makes Texas a terrible park against a lineup with some power. The Rangers also have an 18.2 K-BB% vs RHP and while his strikeouts have dropped in recent starts (just 10 of last 67 batters faced), the swinging strike rate has remained elite (9.9% two starts back is his low for the year). Are recent struggles just a matter of difficult scheduling (Red Sox, Astros, Twins, Angels, Nationals – not in that order)?
Miles Mikolas snapped string of six straight starts where he pitched into the seventh inning last time out with just 4.2 innings in Minnesota. He only allowed two runs, but also struck out just two and that’s the danger here. The Royals are certainly a favorable matchup from a run prevention standpoint, especially without a DH, but his bat missing skills are below average and Kansas City has a split low 16.7 K% vs RHP. Nobody else is within three points!
Nick Pivetta mowed down the Orioles in his last start (11 strikeouts, seven innings, two hits). In that day’s alerts, I wrote that Buck Showalter was a year late on the reverse split thing. He comprised that top half of his lineup entirely of right-handed batters because they had a wOBA above .400 against them last year. It completely backfired. This year, right-handed batters have a .241 wOBA and 29.6 K-BB% against him. The Braves are a bit more balanced and lefties do have a .341 wOBA against him this, though with a 14.4 K-BB% and league average 30.7 Hard%. Overall, his swinging strike rate has increased to become more in line with his 28.2 K%. He’s still allowing hard contact at a rate that can be uncomfortable in a power friendly park (10.7% Barrels/BBE) and this is a dangerous, low strikeout upside matchup (19.9 K%), but not perhaps not enough to take him off of today’s board.
Walker Buehler had his first real major league struggles last time out, as was expected when he visited the powerhouse Marlins. He still struck out seven of 26 batters. His season SwStr% does not support his 30.4 K%, but minor league strikeout rates do project that kind of upside. He has the top xwOBA (.255) along with the lowest rate of barrels (1.5%) and 95+ mph EV (26.5%) per batted ball on the board. He’s also got the top park adjusted matchup on the board, facing the Rockies as a right-handed pitcher (24.2 K%, 7.1 Hard-Soft%) in the most negative run environment in play tonight. Ninety-seven pitches in his last start was a season high.
Zack Greinke has seen his swinging strike rate drop, while his strikeout rate has risen over the last month. He’s still in an acceptable range, but does have just 16 strikeouts (72 batters faced) over his last three starts following 10 strikeouts against the Dodgers. He has at least pitched into the sixth inning in eight of his nine starts with the concern being that continually declining velocity has led to a bit more hard contact than we’re entirely comfortable with (89.4 mph aEV), but the Brewers have a 16.4 K-BB% vs RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.287 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Mike Foltynewicz (.297 – 77.1% – 9.5) has four unearned runs (21% of total). I’m extremely hesitant to pay up for a pitcher with such significant platoon split against an offense that does have some left-handed capabilities at the top. Now, the Phillies also do have a split high 26.8 K% vs RHP, but his 27.9 K% is a fluke (8.9 SwStr%). Over-priced, especially on DraftKings.
Chase Anderson (.210 – 85.7% – 16.7) is not the same guy he was last year. His velocity is down, making those fastballs and cutters he started throwing successfully up in the zone last year leave the park more often (10 HRs last seven starts). He’s not getting batters to chase outside the zone (43.4 Z-O-Swing%), which means they’re sitting on the fat pitches. Statcast individual player pages haven’t been working for me for a few days, which means I can’t exactly verify that Meatball% stat (that’s a thing they have), but the 36.4 GB% and 13.3 IFFB% have also aided him towards the lowest aEV on the board (85.2 mph). He also has one of the top matchups on the board (Diamondbacks 26.4 K% vs RHP), but the .344 xwOBA still isn’t exactly strong and he hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch in three weeks since being DLed with the flu.
Bartolo Colon (.204 – 86% – 18.4) is facing the Yankees (114 wRC+, 11 BB%, 15.5 HR/FB vs LHP – 165 wRC+, 17.5 HR/FB, 34.8 Hard-Soft% last seven days) in Texas. By wRC+ and park adjusting methods, this is easily the worst matchup on the board. No other matchup is even significantly negative for a pitcher today (the Braves may come closest). It could go well, but Big Bart has the lowest swinging strike rate (6.1%), worst Z-Contact rate (92.4%), highest aEV (90.2%) and 95+ mph EV (44.2%) on the board, so it probably won’t.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Robbie Erlin started one game on April 16th and threw 70 pitches in three innings. He hasn’t thrown more than 29 in an outing since. The Nats are banged up, have a 24.2 K% vs LHP and 25 wRC+ with an 18.9 K-BB% over the last week, but can we realistically have even a five inning expectation? If you do, then…sure, fine, his point per dollar value might work out if you somehow need that kind of salary savings tonight.
Blaine Hardy started his first major league game on May 13th at the age of 31. He threw a season high 79 pitches in that game. He’s made 168 career relief appearances for the Tigers since 2014. He has a 9.6 K-BB% over that span. The Twins are one of four extremely high strikeout splits on the board though (26.1% vs LHP) and he is just $4K on DraftKings.
Elisier Hernandez is a Rule 5 pick with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), who went five competitive innings in his first start last week, but has struck out just three of 33 major league batters and faces a Mets’ offense that is finally starting to get it going from the left-hand side (Conforto is on fire).
Jason Vargas has a double digit SwStr% in all three starts with an 86.1 mph aEV that’s third best on the board. How that correlates with a .465 xwOBA is unfathomable. A 26 LD% has something to do with it, but a .447 BABIP is going to regress heavily and not everything is a massive negative. That said, he’s allowed at least four runs in no more than 4.2 innings in every start. Something’s wrong and the Marlins have just a 10.0 K-BB% vs LHP. If you’re playing one of those 20 lineup deals on DraftKings, I might throw him into one or two just ($4.6K) in case this is the start he settles in, but even then the upside is not great and basically just “not terrible”.
Andrew Cashner has a middling strikeout rate, but the second lowest swinging strike percentage on the board with a BABIP well below his terrible defense (also, maybe the worst on the board). His .389 xwOBA is second worst to a pitcher who has made just three starts. His 12.5% Barrels/BBE is worst on the board. It’s bad, but it could get worse.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 15.9% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 15.8% | Season | 20.6% | 10.8% | 17.5% | 15.1% | Road | 14.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.4% | L14Days | 18.0% | 10.0% | 16.7% | |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 14.6% | 4.3% | 13.5% | 19.6% | Season | 16.6% | 2.1% | 18.4% | 31.4% | Home | 16.6% | 5.3% | 17.4% | 20.1% | L14Days | 14.3% | 2.0% | 7.7% | 21.9% |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 11.2% | Season | 19.4% | 8.3% | 15.4% | 12.0% | Road | 19.7% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.0% | L14Days | 21.9% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 4.8% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 13.6% | Season | 16.3% | 8.7% | 16.7% | 7.4% | Home | 20.3% | 6.4% | 14.8% | 14.1% | L14Days | 13.0% | 8.7% | 18.2% | -5.5% |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 9.1% | 3.0% | 9.1% | 34.5% | Season | 9.1% | 3.0% | 9.1% | 34.5% | Road | L14Days | 9.1% | 3.0% | 9.1% | 34.5% | ||||
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 20.5% | 7.5% | 15.2% | 15.9% | Season | 21.2% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 12.4% | Road | 20.9% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 14.9% | L14Days | 16.3% | 8.2% | 22.2% | 19.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 11.1% | Season | 25.2% | 10.6% | 4.7% | 13.6% | Home | 24.2% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 7.5% | L14Days | 26.0% | 14.0% | 11.1% | 13.4% |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 18.9% | Season | 18.6% | 13.1% | 10.0% | 8.3% | Home | 16.5% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 15.8% | L14Days | 14.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 24.0% | Season | 21.3% | 7.6% | 13.3% | 20.7% | Road | 20.0% | 7.8% | 14.8% | 25.2% | L14Days | 20.0% | 10.0% | 21.1% | 22.9% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | L2 Yrs | 17.7% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 15.6% | Season | 13.0% | 10.1% | 23.8% | 23.1% | Home | 16.7% | 7.9% | 13.5% | 16.1% | L14Days | 5.0% | 10.0% | 12.5% | |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 7.7% | Season | 23.5% | 4.7% | 13.2% | 3.3% | Home | 26.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | L14Days | 24.0% | 4.0% | 14.3% | 36.4% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 4.9% | 16.6% | 14.2% | Season | 22.5% | 4.8% | 17.0% | 14.1% | Road | 22.5% | 6.0% | 21.4% | 13.2% | L14Days | 11.6% | 4.7% | 27.3% | 22.3% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 21.9% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 12.0% | Season | 27.9% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 18.2% | Road | 20.6% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 12.4% | L14Days | 31.8% | 15.9% | -8.7% | |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 2.4% | 15.8% | 17.2% | Season | 18.0% | 2.4% | 15.8% | 17.2% | Home | 18.1% | 13.2% | L14Days | 13.3% | 6.7% | 12.5% | 25.0% | ||
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 25.0% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 17.3% | Season | 28.2% | 5.9% | 11.1% | 9.9% | Home | 28.8% | 6.4% | 18.7% | 14.0% | L14Days | 41.9% | 2.3% | 9.1% | 20.8% |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 12.0% | Season | 23.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 12.0% | Road | 36.0% | 25.0% | L14Days | 21.4% | 9.1% | ||||
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 29.5% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 16.3% | Season | 30.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 22.0% | Home | 28.3% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 29.7% | L14Days | 30.6% | 4.1% | 11.1% | 38.7% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 24.7% | 5.6% | 13.6% | 16.3% | Season | 26.6% | 3.2% | 13.5% | 26.5% | Road | 24.5% | 5.6% | 15.4% | 9.7% | L14Days | 22.9% | 2.1% | 30.5% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Home | 25.2% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 6.4% | RH | 23.2% | 7.3% | 12.6% | 11.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 1.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 24.0% | 8.4% | 14.2% | 16.4% | RH | 23.2% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 19.7% | L7Days | 17.0% | 8.5% | 20.4% | 34.8% |
| Twins | Home | 22.9% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 18.2% | LH | 26.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 24.4% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 18.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.6% | 8.7% | 16.0% | 11.5% | RH | 26.4% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 13.7% | L7Days | 29.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Mets | Home | 22.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.6% | RH | 21.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 13.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 7.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 24.2% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.2% | RH | 22.2% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 14.4% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 32.4% |
| Padres | Road | 27.0% | 6.3% | 12.0% | 11.1% | LH | 25.5% | 7.7% | 14.9% | 17.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 4.6% | 11.9% | 12.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 27.8% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 13.4% | LH | 22.8% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 13.6% | L7Days | 28.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.8% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 20.0% | RH | 22.8% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 19.2% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 22.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.8% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 9.1% | LH | 20.0% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 14.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 16.4% | RH | 21.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 22.1% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 17.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 26.4% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 22.9% | RH | 26.0% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 20.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.8% | 11.4% | 15.8% | 14.1% | RH | 26.8% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 27.4% | 8.1% | 16.7% | 5.0% |
| Royals | Road | 18.8% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 16.3% | RH | 16.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 21.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 23.5% |
| Braves | Road | 19.6% | 9.0% | 15.2% | 16.3% | RH | 19.9% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 18.3% | L7Days | 16.2% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 36.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.9% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 11.2% | LH | 24.2% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 19.3% | L7Days | 24.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 10.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.3% | 9.1% | 14.5% | 11.8% | RH | 24.2% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 13.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 27.6% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 18.9% | RH | 24.5% | 8.1% | 16.7% | 15.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.7% | 22.2% | 23.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.8 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.16 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 20.6% | 6.9% | 2.99 | 19.8% | 5.5% | 3.60 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 16.6% | 6.1% | 2.72 | 11.8% | 4.6% | 2.57 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 19.4% | 13.2% | 1.47 | 19.4% | 13.2% | 1.47 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 16.3% | 8.0% | 2.04 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 1.45 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 9.1% | 7.8% | 1.17 | 9.1% | 7.8% | 1.17 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 21.2% | 9.0% | 2.36 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 2.56 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 25.2% | 10.3% | 2.45 | 24.8% | 10.0% | 2.48 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.14 | 16.0% | 8.3% | 1.93 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 21.3% | 8.4% | 2.54 | 20.7% | 9.2% | 2.25 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 13.0% | 10.9% | 1.19 | 13.0% | 10.9% | 1.19 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 23.5% | 11.0% | 2.14 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 1.63 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 22.5% | 13.8% | 1.63 | 20.9% | 14.6% | 1.43 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 27.9% | 8.9% | 3.13 | 27.2% | 9.1% | 2.99 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 18.0% | 8.8% | 2.05 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 1.96 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 28.2% | 11.4% | 2.47 | 31.4% | 12.0% | 2.62 |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | 23.3% | 10.5% | 2.22 | 26.2% | 11.4% | 2.30 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 30.4% | 8.4% | 3.62 | 30.4% | 8.4% | 3.62 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 26.6% | 12.2% | 2.18 | 28.7% | 11.3% | 2.54 |
Masahiro Tanaka has actually increased his SwStr% over the last month.
Walker Buehler has been above his season SwStr% in three straight starts, but still hasn’t exceeded 11% in a start yet. It’s a dilemma because minor league strikeout rates have been around or above 30% at nearly every stop, but he’s going to have to start showing more swing and miss soon.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.22 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.17 xFIP – 4.29 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 4.83 | 4.70 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 0.01 | 5.65 | 0.82 | 6.64 | 1.81 | 6.49 | 4.73 | -1.76 | 4.76 | -1.73 | 5.69 | -0.80 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 2.82 | 3.86 | 1.04 | 2.82 | 0.92 | 4.48 | 1.66 | 5.29 | 2.47 | 3.62 | 4.48 | 0.86 | 4.25 | 0.63 | 5.71 | 2.09 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 3.38 | 4.87 | 1.49 | 3.38 | 2.15 | 6.15 | 2.77 | 4.18 | 0.80 | 3.38 | 4.88 | 1.50 | 5.53 | 2.15 | 6.15 | 2.77 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 3.97 | 5.05 | 1.08 | 3.97 | 1.32 | 6.01 | 2.04 | 5.36 | 1.39 | 5.09 | 5.89 | 0.80 | 5.79 | 0.70 | 6.26 | 1.17 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 2.25 | 5.10 | 2.85 | 2.25 | 2.75 | 4.40 | 2.15 | 6.21 | 3.96 | 2.25 | 5.10 | 2.85 | 5 | 2.75 | 4.40 | 2.15 |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 5.15 | 4.34 | -0.81 | 5.15 | -0.98 | 4.24 | -0.91 | 3.65 | -1.50 | 5.76 | 3.75 | -2.01 | 3.48 | -2.28 | 4.27 | -1.49 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 2.36 | 3.94 | 1.58 | 2.36 | 1.36 | 2.84 | 0.48 | 2.95 | 0.59 | 2.25 | 4.06 | 1.81 | 3.83 | 1.58 | 2.97 | 0.72 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 5.29 | 5.21 | -0.08 | 5.29 | 0.73 | 5.53 | 0.24 | 9.80 | 4.51 | 6.10 | 5.63 | -0.47 | 6 | -0.10 | 6.24 | 0.14 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 4.98 | 4.29 | -0.69 | 4.98 | -0.66 | 4.46 | -0.52 | 5.05 | 0.07 | 7.50 | 4.52 | -2.98 | 4.72 | -2.78 | 5.06 | -2.44 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 13.86 | 5.67 | -8.19 | 13.86 | -7.47 | 8.90 | -4.96 | 9.57 | -4.29 | 13.86 | 5.68 | -8.18 | 6.39 | -7.47 | 8.90 | -4.96 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 4.05 | 3.58 | -0.47 | 4.05 | -0.38 | 3.76 | -0.29 | 4.30 | 0.25 | 6.66 | 4.54 | -2.12 | 4.81 | -1.85 | 5.95 | -0.71 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 4.73 | 3.69 | -1.04 | 4.73 | -0.98 | 4.35 | -0.38 | 4.45 | -0.28 | 3.72 | 3.90 | 0.18 | 3.88 | 0.16 | 4.11 | 0.39 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.87 | 3.95 | 1.08 | 2.87 | 0.89 | 3.42 | 0.55 | 3.40 | 0.53 | 3.16 | 4.24 | 1.08 | 3.94 | 0.78 | 3.50 | 0.34 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 2.63 | 3.57 | 0.94 | 2.63 | 0.62 | 3.57 | 0.94 | 3.53 | 0.90 | 1.67 | 3.50 | 1.83 | 3.25 | 1.58 | 2.90 | 1.23 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 3.72 | 3.22 | -0.50 | 3.72 | -0.45 | 3.10 | -0.62 | 2.64 | -1.08 | 4.81 | 3.26 | -1.55 | 3.36 | -1.45 | 4.30 | -0.51 |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | 3.46 | 2.91 | -0.55 | 3.46 | -0.58 | 2.26 | -1.20 | 2.75 | -0.71 | 1.54 | 2.26 | 0.72 | 2.23 | 0.69 | 1.26 | -0.28 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 2.67 | 3.02 | 0.35 | 2.67 | 0.03 | 2.22 | -0.45 | 3.30 | 0.63 | 2.67 | 3.02 | 0.35 | 2.7 | 0.03 | 2.22 | -0.45 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 3.46 | 3.06 | -0.40 | 3.46 | -0.40 | 3.18 | -0.28 | 1.45 | -2.01 | 2.93 | 2.84 | -0.09 | 2.72 | -0.21 | 2.30 | -0.63 |
Gio Gonzalez has a 4.7 HR/FB, but there’s a bit of funk going on in his BABIP too.
Miles Mikolas has an 83.7 LOB%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .287 BABIP – 43.1 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.1 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.322 | 0.284 | -0.038 | 37.6% | 20.1% | 11.1% | 90.7% | 38.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.307 | 0.204 | -0.103 | 50.0% | 18.6% | 6.1% | 92.4% | 36.6% |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.287 | 0.304 | 0.017 | 16.7% | 29.2% | 23.1% | 83.3% | 39.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.268 | 0.210 | -0.058 | 36.4% | 17.1% | 13.3% | 89.0% | 43.4% |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 0.295 | 0.286 | -0.009 | 41.4% | 20.7% | 9.1% | 86.4% | 47.3% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.302 | 0.356 | 0.054 | 45.5% | 26.1% | 10.5% | 89.0% | 40.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.279 | 0.326 | 0.047 | 52.1% | 17.1% | 2.3% | 84.1% | 30.8% |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 0.294 | 0.297 | 0.003 | 32.3% | 15.6% | 16.0% | 85.5% | 41.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.308 | 0.331 | 0.023 | 30.1% | 28.8% | 15.0% | 88.3% | 34.5% |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.299 | 0.447 | 0.148 | 32.0% | 26.0% | 0.0% | 87.9% | 35.4% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.299 | 0.239 | -0.060 | 43.2% | 20.5% | 15.1% | 85.8% | 34.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.285 | 0.257 | -0.028 | 44.2% | 19.7% | 11.3% | 83.3% | 32.2% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.291 | 0.297 | 0.006 | 40.0% | 25.0% | 9.5% | 85.3% | 37.6% |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.286 | 0.274 | -0.012 | 51.3% | 25.0% | 10.5% | 90.1% | 30.9% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.290 | 0.308 | 0.018 | 40.7% | 21.2% | 13.3% | 84.0% | 34.9% |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | 0.307 | 0.297 | -0.010 | 50.7% | 24.7% | 5.6% | 85.1% | 31.0% |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.299 | 0.313 | 0.014 | 53.7% | 22.4% | 12.5% | 87.7% | 37.0% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.268 | 0.285 | 0.017 | 44.4% | 21.2% | 13.5% | 84.5% | 26.5% |
German Marquez has a .354 BABIP partially due to the park in Colorado (.293 on the road), but also due to a 26.1 LD% that he’s retained on the road.
Gio Gonzalez is nearly 50 points above his defense and more than 30 above his career average without any support for that in his profile. He’s getting lots of swings at his pitches and limiting hard contact, which shows up in both his home runs and line drives. Perhaps all the hard contact is coming on his ground balls.
Ian Kennedy has a career high .331 BABIP (40 IP min.) that correlates with a league high 28.8 LD%, but he’s also generated nine popups already. I’d be optimistic about improvement, but the Kansas City defense may no longer be as much of an asset as they have been in the past.
Jose Berrios is a contact management specialist (more below), but I’m always skeptical of anything below .250.
Masahiro Tanaka has a career .277 BABIP and the defense appears to be improved this year (Torres gets a lot of credit for that too).
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.389 | -0.036 | 0.341 | -0.041 | 0.385 | -0.015 | -1.800 | 89.3 | 12.5 | 39.500 | 152 |
| Bartolo Colon | Rangers | 0.332 | -0.071 | 0.342 | 0.018 | 0.373 | -0.075 | -2.100 | 90.2 | 5.8 | 44.200 | 156 |
| Blaine Hardy | Tigers | 0.293 | 0.056 | 0.347 | -0.002 | 0.293 | 0.056 | -0.400 | 89.6 | 4.0 | 36.000 | 25 |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | 0.344 | -0.022 | 0.316 | 0.000 | 0.372 | -0.034 | -1.600 | 85.2 | 6.7 | 28.400 | 134 |
| Elieser Hernandez | Marlins | 0.331 | -0.037 | 0.331 | -0.037 | -0.300 | 90.2 | 3.4 | 27.600 | 29 | ||
| German Marquez | Rockies | 0.320 | 0.031 | 0.314 | 0.015 | 0.332 | 0.053 | -1.900 | 88.3 | 4.4 | 37.200 | 137 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.299 | -0.002 | 0.306 | -0.013 | 0.295 | -0.013 | -1.100 | 87.6 | 5.0 | 32.900 | 140 |
| Hector Santiago | White Sox | 0.325 | 0.032 | 0.357 | -0.011 | 0.339 | 0.036 | -1.300 | 88.9 | 7.3 | 36.500 | 96 |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | 0.382 | -0.032 | 0.351 | -0.028 | 0.382 | 0.016 | 0.000 | 89.7 | 12.0 | 41.300 | 150 |
| Jason Vargas | Mets | 0.465 | 0.064 | 0.326 | 0.017 | 0.465 | 0.064 | -0.900 | 86.1 | 9.6 | 30.800 | 52 |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | 0.297 | -0.029 | 0.261 | -0.025 | 0.366 | -0.010 | -0.500 | 85.2 | 7.4 | 26.800 | 149 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.320 | -0.022 | 0.325 | 0.020 | 0.317 | -0.047 | -1.400 | 87.6 | 6.0 | 33.600 | 149 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.318 | -0.022 | 0.330 | 0.004 | 0.323 | -0.033 | -0.500 | 88.8 | 8.3 | 33.900 | 121 |
| Miles Mikolas | Cardinals | 0.319 | -0.046 | 0.282 | -0.045 | 0.298 | -0.045 | -0.600 | 86.4 | 8.0 | 30.100 | 163 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.336 | -0.049 | 0.320 | -0.003 | 0.344 | -0.023 | 0.000 | 88.1 | 10.7 | 35.200 | 122 |
| Robbie Erlin | Padres | 0.292 | -0.030 | 0.285 | -0.046 | 0.278 | -0.060 | -0.800 | 87.2 | 5.3 | 30.700 | 75 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.255 | -0.008 | 0.287 | 0.011 | 0.255 | -0.008 | -0.500 | 87.5 | 1.5 | 26.500 | 68 |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | 0.317 | -0.035 | 0.299 | 0.013 | 0.292 | -0.021 | -0.900 | 89.4 | 9.3 | 35.800 | 151 |
Jose Berrios remains the top contact manager on the board (lowest aEV and second best 95+ mph EV) despite recent home run issues. For anyone not paying attention, this has been his strength more than missing bats, which he’s basically been league average at. He has a split best .261 xwOBA at home since last season and faces a Detroit offense without much power.
Masahiro Tanaka has actually been a league average contact manager despite the home runs.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
If you like high priced contact managers, this slate is for you!
Value Tier One
Jose Berrios (2) went 7.1 innings of two hit ball with double digit strikeouts for just the second time this season against the Cardinals. It would seem that he righted the ship. Opening with 11 straight fastballs and then mixing in curves (a recent trouble pitch) was a recipe for success. As we’ve discussed, contact management is more his thing than strikeouts and he is facing a Detroit team that should play towards that strength (less power, but not a lot of strikeouts either). We generally like strikeouts for daily fantasy, but can also recognize a superior spot at a low cost in which we should probably have an expectation for this pitcher to work deep into the game while strong run prevention and the upside for strikeouts occasionally.
Value Tier Two
German Marquez may be just a league average pitcher on the road. His xFIP, K-BB% and xwOBA all suggest this and it’s perfectly fine for a matchup with the Dodgers in LA for which he costs less than $7K (much less on DK).
Value Tier Three
Walker Buehler (3) is a high cost arm with a below average swinging strike rate, who hasn’t reached 100 pitches in a start yet. The good news is that he’s been inching closer, has elite minor league strikeout rates and is in the top spot on the board.
Zack Greinke (1) does basically everything you’d want him to in order to compensate for lack of velocity and an 89.4 mph aEV resulting from that. He misses a lot of bats (though less so most recently) and doesn’t walk anyone. That gives him some value for $9.2K on FanDuel, where he’s only the second highest priced pitcher, and probably vaults him to at least the top of this tier if not above it. However, he costs $2.9K more on DraftKings, where he’ll need to either generate double digit strikeouts, seven or more innings and/or keep his line clean. He’s done the first of those things just once this year, completed seven innings twice, and allowed at least one run, but less than three in all, but three starts this year. In other words, you need the top of his range to at least break even on DK.
Masahiro Tanaka (5) is a high risk/high reward play for Monday night. The potential range of outcomes is pretty large, but the continued elite SwStr% should be a source of optimism. I think I’d actually lean towards ownership projections to decide a course of action here. Do the opposite of what is suggested the majority of players might do, which means being over-weight on or fading him.
Nick Pivetta (6t) has some upside, but is in a tough spot. He misses enough bats that he may still be able to cover $9.1K on DraftKings, but he’s more likeable at just $7.6K on FanDuel.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Gio Gonzalez (4) costs $11.9K on DraftKings and has completed six innings just three times this year. The Padres strike out a ton, but can still do some damage to LHPs. He’s extremely over-priced and probably bumps off the board on that site. His $8.8K cost on FanDuel is much more reasonable (tied for third most expensive) and he probably bumps up a tier on that site.
Ian Kennedy costs $7K on FanDuel and I’m not interested in him for that price. I don’t expect good things out of him tonight, but do think he has a chance to cover $5.5K on DraftKings with a near league average strikeout rate in a power and run suppressing park.
Miles Mikolas (6t) is not bad even if not as good as his ERA. There’s every chance in the world that he throws seven innings with two runs or less (he hasn’t allowed more than that since his second start), but at the current asking price, he better do at least that considering that he may have the lowest strikeout rate potential on the board tonight. That said, watch him allow three runs in six innings with eight strikeouts because nobody can project something like that.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.