Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, April 23rd

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2016-04-24 03:00:32

It’s the weekend. We get right to it because you don’t want to spend your day off reading long rambling introductions, so let’s go. We’re covering 18 pitchers in the nine game night slate tonight.

New season changes to the article were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here so we won’t repeat those again. Park factors were supposed to be updated last week, but Seamheads.com still seems to be behind, so I think we’re officially now searching for another option before the end of the month, which I’m not all that happy about because I really liked the three year thing they did.

Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

Charlie Morton has 25 swinging strikes and over his last two starts, striking out 13 of 47 batters? I’m phrasing that in the form of a question because I find it difficult to believe. Nineteen of his 28 batted balls have been on the ground over this period too with a -3.5 Hard-Soft%. I’m not buying this. But he’s facing the high strikeout Brewers? Okay, maybe for one start on a short slate. At worse, he keeps the ball on the ground nearly 60% of the time over the last six seasons. What could possibly go wrong?

Chase Anderson allowed his first earned runs of the season in his last start. He’s pitched towards his upside while he’s been in there, but there have been a couple of apparent issues. The one we’ll cover up here is his innings. Three starts with decent lines have totaled 16 innings and he was only held below 96 pitches in his first. It’s not walks, why’s he throwing so many pitches? The contact he’s allowed has been a bit hard for comfort as well (37.3 Hard%). Brooks Baseball has him throwing a Cutter this season and increasing his Curveball usage, both at the expense of his fastballs (he throws two). He’s not messing with his Changeup, he knows it’s his best pitch. We’ll cover this more with his next issue below. I’d probably pass on him at home if he weren’t opposing the Phillies.

Felix Hernandez has shown some very troubling signs, including his ability to find the strike zone and further velocity loss. He’s been dropping in velocity for years, but handles it well because his changeup is so good he can get swings and misses even if they know it’s coming and there’s not separation from his fastball. His 11.7 SwStr% is the 2nd highest of his career. While that’s one main reason I’m considering sticking with him today, the second is that he seems to have a really good matchup. The Angels have been terrible vs RHP. They’re not striking out much, but have just a 4.7 HR/FB and -2.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.

Jhoulys Chacin is not a name I expected to write words next any more than you expected to read them today. Then I saw that he’s struck out 14 of 42 batters with a 15.9 SwStr% through two starts. That’s not something I expect him to come close to sustaining, but it’s done. He did it and it’s amazing no matter what teams he’s faced (WAS, MIA). What’s different? Well, there’s a Cutter he started throwing last August when he returned from injury. He’s thrown it 20 times with four whiffs. He’s thrown his slider 28 times with ten whiffs. The Mets are a team with a lot of power up and down the lineup, but they will swing and miss, striking out against RHPs a quarter of the time.

John Lackey is a fairly average pitcher or slightly better at this point and often priced in line with that expectation. He’s been a bit better than that to start the season, including a strong start against these Reds. He racked up an amazing 21 swinging strikes in his last start against the Cardinals, giving him a 14.7% mark for the season, but we won’t expect him to keep that up with a slightly above average mark over the last three years. The contact has been way too hard, with a Hard-Soft near 30%. The HR is a concern in Cincinnati, with at least a 9.8 HR/FB each of the last three years, but he should still have enough to dispatch the Reds.

Jose Fernandez hopefully answered some questions about intended usage that popped up here after being pulled with just 90 pitches against the Mets despite pitching well (though not his best effort). He’s gone over 100 pitches in each of his other two outings. He’s walked 11.6% of the batters he’s faced with 7 BBs in his last two starts, but control is usually the last thing to return after TJ surgery. He’s missing bats at the same elite rate as before and the batted ball stuff looks fine. Possibly the toughest park in the league neutralizes a good San Francisco offense. They have just a 14.1 K% vs RHP and a surprising 12.0 HR/FB at home so far (expect that number to drop significantly), but I’d still project Fernandez for potentially the top strikeout rate tonight.

Michael Wacha hasn’t really lived up to the hype since his rookie year, decent peripherals despite a low ERA, but he hasn’t become the force some hoped he would be when he racked up 1.2 fWAR in one third of a season in 2013. He’s generally been a bit better than league average in walk and strikeout rates, but takes advantage of a strong defense to look a little better. There are a few oddities in the early going, which we’ll speak of below, but he’s only had one bad start (his first) and the important thing to remember is he’s facing the Padres, who have struck out 26% of the time vs RHP even after Wainwright punched out just two last night.

Steven Matz got things rolling back in the right direction with a dominant second outing after some NY writers were actually calling for his banishment back to the minor leagues for what were obviously correctable issues that might have been more mental than physical in his first start (he got BABIP frustrated and hung a few curveballs). The talent is exceptional (or standard for this staff), but the execution has been hit or miss in the majors so far. The Braves have the 5th most PAs in the league vs LHP (208) without a HR. That’s not a surprise considering their two best bats are LH and one of them has no power anymore. They may or may not have one legitimate bat against LHP (Garcia).

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)

Hector Santiago (.192 BABIP – 81.1 LOB% – 12.5 HR/FB) has never exceeded an 8.5 SwStr%, so it’s going to take a bit more for me to buy into this, though early signs are positive including an ability to hold a two mph increase in velocity for three straight starts. I’ll admit, I’m finally interested in him. Is this something that’s also responsible for large changes in his batted ball profile (47.3 GB% in 2016, 33.7% career) and rate of hard contact (25.5 Hard% in 2016, 30.3 Hard% career). No matter what, they don’t explain his BABIP and strand rate, which began in extreme territory last season as well before self-correcting after the All Star break. I’m curious, but not yet enough to pay $8K+ for a hard contact prone pitcher against an offense with the 5th highest HR/FB in the majors (14.3%).

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Cesar Vargas was called a left-handed reliever with limited upside in the first fangraphs article mention I could find on him. He’s not left-handed, but I get the point. He has started two games in AA this season, striking out 14 of the 42 batters he’s faced. The same author has more recently called him a Super Deep Sleeper, though I don’t know that’s enough to go on against the Cardinals.
Dan Straily was an interesting nearly minimum priced sleeper in in his first start against Colorado and he paid off with five innings of one run ball with four strikeouts. For a similar, but slightly higher price, I’d expect much worse against the Cubs.

Jake Peavy hasn’t had a respectable start yet.

Juan Nicasio generated a lot of excitement last month and then again after his first start, shutting down the Cardinals with 10 strikeouts. Since then, his control problems have resurfaces (7 BBs, 43 BF) and he has just a 4.2 SwStr% over his last two starts. Additionally, he still seems to have no answer to LHBs (.343 wOBA 2016, .361 wOBA career). Arizona leans RH, but it’s a tough park and they do have a lefty threat or two in the middle.

Kenta Maeda meets Coors. I might not stack as heavily against as most opposing pitchers in Colorado, but I’m not taking the risk of rostering him either.

Kris Medlen has walked eight of 46 batters and hasn’t allowed a HR yet, but that those kind of control issues could hurt him badly against a Baltimore offense feasting on RHP early on in any park.

Rubby de la Rosa has increased his velocity and maintained a league average SwStr%, things that are supposed to be good. He’s even cut down on his ground balls. It hasn’t worked. He’s been destroyed in each of his two starts and was even been used out of the pen a couple of times. RHBs are hitting him just as hard as LHBs early on. It should get better and the Pirates only utilize two LHBs regularly (he’s dominated RHBs, struggled with LHBs in the past), but I really have no desire to mess with him today in a tough park against a decent offense.

Tyler Chatwood provides your stacking material this evening, though he’s been quite formidable on the road in two tough spots (ARI,CHC) this year.

Tyler Wilson has struck out 17 of the 181 major league batters he’s faced with a 5.3 SwStr%, though just one of his 45 fly balls have left the yard.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Chase Anderson had a league average 9.4 SwStr% in his first start, but hasn’t topped 6% in either start since. This is the second issue we have to talk about. He’s been up above 8% the last two years and the Changeup is still getting a 19% whiff rate. None of his other four pitches are above 6% though. The Cutter has been missed once and the Curveball twice. Lucroy is an excellent framer and may afford him the benefit of a few more called strikes, but he can’t push a 5.7 SwSTr% up this high.

Jake Peavy had a 2.5 SwStr% in his first start and a 20.5 SwStr% in his second start. In his third, he split the difference, so who knows?

Jose Fernandez has the ability to retain that SwStr rate, but it should be fairly obvious that he’s not going to sustain a 40% strikeout rate. Don’t put 30% past him though.

Michael Wacha was below 7% in his first two starts before his SwStr jumped up to double digits in his last start. He’ll probably settle in somewhere around league average again eventually, which makes his K% fine, right at his career rate (21.3%) now.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

None of this stuff yet means much after two or even three starts, but there are a few interesting tidbits.

Chase Anderson – This is very strange. He’s stranding 71.4%, which is close enough to average, but you would expect him to be stranding too many with his ERA flying higher than his estimators. The BABIP (.347) is unusually high too for this type of gap. I don’t know what to make of it. He is allowing a lot of hard contact and not missing many bats. That’s the extent of what I know.

Felix Hernandez – The BABIP is not going to remain that low, the strand rate (82.6%) is going to tumble, and eventually there will be HRs, but he’s still missing bats and is in a good spot tonight.

Jhoulys Chacin has only stranded 66.7% of his runners through two starts.

Jose Fernandez has stranded just a hair under 70% of his runners, which is a bit low for a normal pitcher and much too low for a guy who’s struck out 40% of batters faced, even with a current double digit BB%.

Steven Matz has had one disastrous start and one great one. There’s nothing to analyze here yet.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Michael Wacha has a ridiculous BABIP through three starts. Yes, he has a 41.2 LD% without a pop up so far, but he also has just a 25.5 Hard%. The crazy thing is it’s not even really hurting his ERA because he hasn’t allowed a HR yet.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

We’re still just talking a bit more about the pitchers you might be considering today in relation to their price tags in no particular order until we get a bit more information about 2016. We’ll probably return to last year’s format after one more turn through the rotation.

Charlie Morton – I didn’t anticipate any affection for him at a price much above $6K on either site, even against the Brewers, but the number of bats he’s missing has intrigued me. He did this at the start of either last season or the one before (I forget which), but then went back to being Charlie Morton again. It’s more due to the Brewers that I think he could keep this up another time out and his extreme ground ball ways make it a bit less risky if he doesn’t.

Chase Anderson seems to have results exceeding the underlying performance so far. His potential probably remains back end starter, but that should be enough to dispatch the Phillies. Most other teams and we’d probably pass on him.

Felix Hernandez is the second highest priced pitcher of the day. This is much riskier than it looks from his ERA. I’d easily pass in probably even neutral matchups, but he’s in a good spot against a struggling offense and is still missing bats at a high rate. I certainly don’t have the confidence in him that you usually do in a pitcher at this price, but it’s a short slate with not a lot of upside.

Jhoulys Chacin – You may ask how I could consider him after just two impressive starts, but not Hector Santiago. There are two slight differences. One is a $2K difference in price on either site. The second is that many DFS players like Santiago and I’d expect him to be well owned. He has to do less to pay off his price and allows you to afford several better hitters. If Chacin hits (and yes, it’s high risk, no I don’t even necessarily expect it), nobody will expect it. I would not have a lot of exposure, nor use him outside of GPPs.

John Lackey has pitched well this year and perhaps had some sort of extra motivation against his old team in his last start. Don’t expect him to keep up that SwStr rate, but if repeats just what he did last time against these Reds, he should be worth his cost and some more.

Jose Fernandez is the top pitcher on the board at the top price. If you have to choose between he and King Felix at the same price on FanDuel, it should be him an overwhelming majority of the time (80/20?). If you can afford him, you want him, and with a lack of other top pitchers hanging around tonight, an effort should be made to start with him and build around in most lineups.

Michael Wacha at a high cost on the road is generally not that enticing, but it’s the Padres.

Steven Matz is one of several talented, but flawed pitchers (Felix, Wacha) in what appears to be a cake matchup tonight. In the same price range as Wacha, Lackey, and Santiago, this would be the highest upside pick, though potentially with the most risk. Or maybe not even much risk facing the Braves as I’m confident a real major league offense would have punished Harvey’s continued lack of command last night. I’ll likely find myself with a lot of Fernandez/Matz GPP combinations on DraftKings and probably even non-GPP formats, but wouldn’t blame you for opting for some Wacha or even Lackey as well.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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