Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, April 27th
We’re going to attempt something never seen in these pages before (or at least this page). Both games of the double-header will be listed today due to an abundance of space. It normally wouldn’t fit on a full day. The night slate is just four games deep, even with that double-header. We’ll cover the night slate in the notes, as always, but also do a short write-up on a couple of the top day game pitchers up top as well.
How crazy has this week been? Six pitchers have been listed as either Tier One or Tier Two worthy since Tuesday. Due to rain outs or scratches, only three of them have actually pitched. Hopefully the weather cooperates today because a PPD on a four-game slate would be a bit of a disaster.
Lastly, I want to note that there seems to be a couple of issues, one with the Statcast Barrels/BBE and Barrels/PA stat reading the same number. I’m sure Darren at Baseball Savant will get that corrected soon. The other is on Fangraphs. Filter team offense over the last seven days and every wOBA is at .000, which is screwing up wRC+.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
UPDATE: Noah Syndergaard has been scratched. Matt Harvey will start in his place.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -18.8 | 4.21 | 5.87 | 44.1% | 0.98 | 3.82 | 2.44 | TOR | 88 | 73 | -1 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 1.3 | 3.85 | 6.5 | 46.7% | 1.39 | 3.72 | 4.17 | WAS | 110 | 106 | 0 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -18.8 | 3.7 | 6.12 | 55.4% | 0.98 | 3.58 | 4.12 | TOR | 88 | 73 | -1 |
| Casey Lawrence | TOR | -1.6 | 5.71 | 6.1 | 63.3% | 0.98 | 5.54 | 4.38 | STL | 74 | 93 | 2 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 1.6 | 2.9 | 6.97 | 41.1% | 1.13 | 3.18 | 1.58 | NYY | 110 | 106 | 0 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -13.7 | 3.28 | 6.82 | 42.8% | 1.09 | 3.65 | 2.96 | HOU | 124 | 123 | 3 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.8 | 4.57 | 5.64 | 48.2% | 0.96 | 4.71 | 6.06 | PHI | 114 | 99 | 2 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -8.2 | 3.86 | 5.64 | 49.7% | 1.39 | 4.13 | 5.1 | COL | 97 | 108 | -15 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 3.5 | 4.13 | 6.15 | 44.3% | 0.98 | 4.67 | 5.49 | DET | 145 | 127 | 0 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 5.1 | 5.15 | 5.92 | 31.8% | 1.13 | 5.74 | 4.14 | ARI | 139 | 116 | -4 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 12.2 | 4.16 | 5.69 | 40.1% | 0.96 | 3.81 | 5.27 | MIA | 93 | 98 | 2 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | -11.6 | 3.88 | 4.61 | 43.7% | 0.93 | 3.89 | SFO | 73 | 79 | 6 | |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 1.6 | 3.65 | 6.61 | 34.1% | 0.98 | 3.76 | 5.43 | SEA | 92 | 118 | 5 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -10.6 | 4.43 | 5.94 | 51.4% | 0.91 | 4.57 | 7.78 | ANA | 115 | 88 | 5 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 4.2 | 3.65 | 6.4 | 48.5% | 1.13 | 3.91 | 3.6 | BOS | 116 | 108 | -4 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | -1.6 | 4.48 | 5.5 | 45.5% | 0.98 | 6.09 | 6.23 | STL | 74 | 93 | 2 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 1.3 | 4.44 | 5.8 | 39.2% | 0.93 | 4.33 | 4.38 | LOS | 82 | 82 | 6 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -5.6 | 4.07 | 5.67 | 40.6% | 1.09 | 4.55 | 3.4 | CLE | 118 | 122 | -1 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.4 | 2.88 | 6.18 | 49.7% | 0.91 | 2.36 | 2.5 | ATL | 80 | 85 | 1 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.9 | 4.72 | 6.2 | 42.4% | 0.91 | 4.57 | 4.11 | NYM | 66 | 73 | 5 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | -2.9 | 4.27 | 5.87 | 41.9% | 0.91 | 4.33 | 3.31 | OAK | 81 | 103 | 5 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -11.2 | 3.82 | 5.69 | 41.8% | 1.13 | 4.07 | 2.77 | SDG | 75 | 80 | 5 |
DAY SLATE
Carlos Martinez may have a 10.6 BB%, but eight of his 11 walks came in a single start that seems like an aberration. He’s generated at least seven strikeouts with an 11+ SwStr% in three of his four starts, though the contact hasn’t been as favorable. He surpassed a 45.5 GB% for just the first time in his last start, while his hard hit rate (36.7%) is above 30% for the first time in his career. Now for the good news. He faces a Toronto offense at home that’s so banged up, they were forced to start two catchers last night in an NL park. They’re a predominantly RH offense with a high strikeout rate against RHP this year. If Martinez has an Achilles heel, it’s been LHBs, as he’s held RHBs to a career .267 wOBA.
Corey Kluber is coming off his best start of the season, a shutout of the White Sox on three hits with nine strikeouts. Yes, it was just the White Sox, but consider what he has previously been doing. Although he struck out eight Tigers in his previous start, he was hit pretty hard (six runs, 57.9 Hard%) after allowing four HRs over his first two starts with 10 strikeouts total. He now has a SwStr rate above 12.5% in back-to-back starts (less than 8% in each of his first two starts) and even though his velocity is still down, he’s increased his velocity in May and June each of the last two seasons. Houston is not an easy task at all though. They’ve added depth to their lineup, while reducing their strikeout rate. This is a quality offense.
Noah Syndergaard struck out 10 Phillies last time out and his 11.4 SwStr% was a season low. He’s the top overall arm on any slate today. And he has just been scratched again. Matt Harvey will start.
NIGHT SLATE
Adam Wainwright was supposed to be toast, but then struck out nine of 21 Brewers in his last outing, generating 13 swings and misses. He hasn’t gone more than five innings in any of his four starts despite throwing at least 96 pitches in each of the last three. That’s the sign of a pitcher who’s laboring. Though his Statcast numbers are very reasonable, he is allowing hard contact on 40.3% of batted balls. Every time I think he might be done, he shows that there’s still something left in the tank. He’s not the pitcher he was. If he’s lucky, he’s something around league average at this point, but the Blue Jays are banged up, they are without a DH, and they have been just plain terrible, not to mention they’re probably not going to play all of their top bats in both ends of a double-header.
Chris Sale leads the majors with a 33.3 K-BB%. Screw pitch to contact. He’s gone back to what once made him dominant and that’s missing bats (15.8 SwStr%). And guess what? It seems to have accomplished what he originally intended to do when he started allowing more contact last year. He’s gone at least seven innings in every start with at least 10 strikeouts in each of the last three. He faces…no, you’re right…it doesn’t matter who he’s facing…but it’s the Yankees.
Masahiro Tanaka has had a 12+ SwStr% in three of four starts this year, though it only generated an above average strikeout rate in his last start. Walks were a problem in his first two starts, though he’s walked just four of his last 54 batters with a 59.6 GB% and 25.6 Hard%. This is a tough spot for him in Fenway, against an offense that does not strike out (16.2% vs RHP), but he’s improved in every start and seems to be somewhat back to what he’s been the last couple of years.
Taijuan Walker was pitching on an injured foot last season. That plus a move to the NL has led to a small increase in his SwStr and K rates, but he moves from a great park to a pretty terrible pitching environment. After a strong spring, he’s struggled a bit early on because he’s had issues throwing strike one (53.6 F-Strike%). All of his starts have come against the Dodgers (great against RHP) and Giants (tough to strike out). While the park remains a big negative, at least he gets to face the Padres (25.2 K% vs RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Kendall Graveman (.204 – 100% – 15.8) generated some excitement again this year when he showed increased velocity this spring. While he started the season at 94.5 mph, he’s dropped 0.4 mph in each of his subsequent starts and is throwing his sinker 90% of the time. He’s not generating a higher than average rate of ground balls with it and he generated just two swinging strikes in his last start, though was at least league average in his two previous starts. It’s tough to get excited about all sinkers, all the time.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ricky Nolasco has walked just three batters this year, affording him a 14.9 K-BB% even with a below average K%, but his GB rate has dropped nearly 10 points off his career rate (0.67 GB/FB) with a 34.2 Hard%. That’s a lot of hard contact in the air and in fact, his 10 Barrels allowed this season are tied for second most in the majors.
Jered Weaver – How about, just to make it more interesting, we all pretend we’re not allowed to stack the Diamondbacks tonight?
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.0% | Home | 20.3% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 4.6% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.2% | 4.0% | Home | 15.4% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.6% | Home | 21.3% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 18.5% |
| Casey Lawrence | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 13.3% | 17.8% | Road | 13.3% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 9.7% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 5.0% | Home | 28.9% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 7.3% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 26.8% | 6.0% | Home | 26.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 6.9% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.5% | 9.1% | Road | 15.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.4% | 8.1% | Road | 20.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 11.3% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.8% | 5.4% | Road | 15.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 10.3% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 13.6% | 5.9% | Road | 11.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 2.2% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.0% | Home | 22.2% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 2.0% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.0% | 9.2% | Road | 23.7% | 10.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.3% | 6.5% | Home | 29.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 14.9% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.9% | 6.4% | Road | 13.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.0% | 4.6% | Road | 18.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
| Mat Latos | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 17.1% | 7.7% | Road | 10.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 4.0% | 12.0% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.7% | 8.3% | Home | 21.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 7.8% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 21.0% | 7.1% | Road | 17.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 4.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.6% | 5.1% | Home | 30.5% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 0.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 15.7% | 7.4% | Road | 17.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 5.7% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.2% | 5.4% | Home | 17.8% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 0.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.7% | Home | 21.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 4.4% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.5% | 9.6% | RH | 23.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 27.6% | 8.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.7% | 10.9% | RH | 19.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.8% | 11.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.5% | 9.6% | RH | 23.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 27.6% | 8.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.5% | 9.4% | RH | 22.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.9% | 9.7% | LH | 16.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 6.6% |
| Astros | Road | 17.5% | 10.4% | RH | 18.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.6% | 8.3% | RH | 24.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 20.1% | 6.5% | LH | 24.9% | 4.3% | L7Days | 15.2% | 6.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.9% | 10.1% | RH | 22.7% | 11.1% | L7Days | 18.0% | 10.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.2% | 8.1% | RH | 24.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.9% | 6.0% | RH | 22.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 5.1% |
| Giants | Home | 18.0% | 7.8% | LH | 20.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 15.0% | 6.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.2% | 9.7% | RH | 19.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 13.3% | 11.8% |
| Angels | Home | 18.0% | 8.0% | RH | 21.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.9% | 7.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 15.5% | 8.3% | RH | 16.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 15.2% | 8.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.5% | 9.4% | RH | 22.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.7% | 10.0% | LH | 20.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.2% |
| Indians | Home | 21.5% | 11.3% | RH | 20.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 12.0% |
| Braves | Road | 21.5% | 6.1% | RH | 21.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.1% |
| Mets | Home | 21.4% | 9.1% | RH | 22.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.2% | 8.3% | RH | 23.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.3% | 9.6% |
| Padres | Road | 26.2% | 7.1% | RH | 25.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 32.6% | 5.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.8% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 2017 | 40.3% | 11.1% | 24.2% | Home | 31.0% | 4.2% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 55.2% | 28.6% | 44.9% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 27.6% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 2017 | 27.6% | 8.7% | 13.1% | Home | 26.2% | 15.4% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 2017 | 36.7% | 15.8% | 13.4% | Home | 27.6% | 14.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 28.6% | 30.8% |
| Casey Lawrence | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 16.1% | 16.7% | -3.3% | 2017 | 16.1% | 16.7% | -3.3% | Road | 16.1% | 16.7% | -3.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 20.0% | -4.1% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.4% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 2017 | 31.7% | 4.0% | 13.4% | Home | 33.8% | 18.9% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 0.0% | -3.9% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.9% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 2017 | 44.6% | 16.7% | 29.7% | Home | 28.9% | 12.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 43.2% | 7.1% | 21.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.9% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 2017 | 40.7% | 15.0% | 27.7% | Road | 34.0% | 17.0% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 9.1% | 26.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.4% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 2017 | 30.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | Road | 33.1% | 10.3% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 7.1% | -2.6% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | L2 Years | 30.6% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 2017 | 31.8% | 23.1% | 6.4% | Road | 29.3% | 14.0% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 21.4% | 13.8% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 32.4% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 2017 | 30.1% | 25.9% | 5.4% | Road | 35.6% | 14.6% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 23.1% | -2.6% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.4% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 2017 | 30.7% | 4.9% | 13.4% | Home | 22.8% | 11.4% | -0.3% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 7.4% | 11.9% |
| Julio Urias | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 2017 | Road | 22.7% | 16.1% | 1.8% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.4% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 2017 | 39.4% | 10.7% | 31.8% | Home | 32.0% | 11.4% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 27.3% | 28.1% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.7% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 2017 | 36.5% | 15.8% | 25.0% | Road | 31.1% | 15.8% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 10.0% | 5.2% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.3% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 2017 | 25.4% | 14.3% | 7.5% | Road | 29.7% | 10.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 9.1% | 12.8% |
| Mat Latos | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.7% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 2017 | 40.0% | 16.7% | 35.0% | Road | 31.3% | 9.4% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 16.7% | 35.0% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 32.0% | 11.1% | 15.5% | 2017 | 41.5% | 16.1% | 30.5% | Home | 33.3% | 9.7% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 52.6% | 28.6% | 44.7% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.5% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 2017 | 32.7% | 33.3% | 12.3% | Road | 34.4% | 19.4% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 43.3% | 38.5% | 23.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 26.6% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 2017 | 27.8% | 0.0% | 9.7% | Home | 27.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 26.6% | 12.1% | 5.7% | 2017 | 30.7% | 18.8% | 11.3% | Road | 28.8% | 12.9% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 23.1% | 5.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.8% | 17.8% | 2017 | 34.3% | 19.4% | 13.7% | Home | 29.9% | 10.7% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 23.5% | 16.6% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.6% | 15.0% | 11.2% | 2017 | 34.3% | 8.0% | 19.4% | Home | 29.5% | 16.3% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.7% | 20.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.7% | 10.5% | 11.0% | RH | 30.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 29.5% | 14.8% | 6.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.2% | 12.6% | 12.7% | RH | 30.1% | 12.0% | 12.8% | L7Days | 30.3% | 12.3% | 9.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.7% | 10.5% | 11.0% | RH | 30.7% | 9.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 29.5% | 14.8% | 6.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 25.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% | RH | 29.8% | 12.2% | 10.7% | L7Days | 39.0% | 10.0% | 20.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 27.1% | 10.2% | 5.9% | LH | 26.6% | 13.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.0% | 11.1% | -1.1% |
| Astros | Road | 33.0% | 10.3% | 15.9% | RH | 33.5% | 14.5% | 15.0% | L7Days | 39.2% | 15.9% | 28.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 26.6% | 13.3% | 1.3% | RH | 28.2% | 13.9% | 5.4% | L7Days | 30.4% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 33.7% | 19.8% | 16.2% | LH | 36.2% | 22.2% | 18.7% | L7Days | 38.8% | 23.1% | 23.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 53.2% | 17.3% | 42.2% | RH | 43.9% | 15.0% | 29.0% | L7Days | 36.1% | 17.5% | 15.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 38.0% | 17.5% | 25.0% | RH | 35.4% | 15.1% | 19.9% | L7Days | 34.6% | 21.7% | 19.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.2% | 15.0% | 8.1% | RH | 32.3% | 17.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 27.3% | 22.2% | 1.2% |
| Giants | Home | 21.9% | 2.8% | -0.9% | LH | 28.3% | 10.8% | 6.3% | L7Days | 24.3% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 27.7% | 9.9% | 8.2% | RH | 30.3% | 11.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 38.3% | 12.3% | 21.5% |
| Angels | Home | 25.8% | 13.8% | 8.1% | RH | 27.4% | 12.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 39.5% | 6.0% | 20.9% | RH | 37.6% | 6.0% | 18.8% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.7% | -6.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 25.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% | RH | 29.8% | 12.2% | 10.7% | L7Days | 39.0% | 10.0% | 20.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 30.3% | 8.0% | 11.9% | LH | 33.1% | 8.7% | 19.4% | L7Days | 32.6% | 10.0% | 17.4% |
| Indians | Home | 35.0% | 16.4% | 19.1% | RH | 36.0% | 13.4% | 18.6% | L7Days | 33.3% | 13.2% | 10.0% |
| Braves | Road | 29.1% | 11.9% | 10.7% | RH | 30.7% | 11.5% | 13.3% | L7Days | 29.0% | 10.0% | 7.0% |
| Mets | Home | 26.9% | 9.8% | 6.9% | RH | 27.8% | 11.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.8% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 39.7% | 8.0% | 18.0% | RH | 34.4% | 14.1% | 16.9% | L7Days | 30.2% | 11.8% | 19.0% |
| Padres | Road | 31.9% | 14.5% | 12.0% | RH | 29.2% | 16.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 32.9% | 19.5% | 17.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 24.4% | 9.6% | 2.54 | 24.4% | 9.6% | 2.54 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 17.2% | 5.9% | 2.92 | 17.2% | 5.9% | 2.92 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 29.8% | 13.3% | 2.24 | 29.8% | 13.3% | 2.24 |
| Casey Lawrence | TOR | 13.3% | 7.8% | 1.71 | 13.3% | 7.8% | 1.71 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 38.9% | 15.8% | 2.46 | 38.9% | 15.8% | 2.46 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 24.8% | 10.8% | 2.30 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 2.30 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 24.7% | 9.6% | 2.57 | 24.7% | 9.6% | 2.57 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 19.8% | 8.9% | 2.22 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 2.22 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 10.8% | 6.9% | 1.57 | 10.8% | 6.9% | 1.57 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 14.3% | 8.9% | 1.61 | 14.3% | 8.9% | 1.61 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 11.1% | 8.6% | 1.29 | 11.1% | 8.6% | 1.29 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | ||||||
| Justin Verlander | DET | 22.2% | 8.6% | 2.58 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 2.58 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 17.1% | 8.4% | 2.04 | 17.1% | 8.4% | 2.04 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 19.4% | 13.4% | 1.45 | 19.4% | 13.4% | 1.45 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 4.0% | 6.3% | 0.63 | 4.0% | 6.3% | 0.63 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 16.0% | 7.9% | 2.03 | 16.0% | 7.9% | 2.03 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 19.1% | 11.2% | 1.71 | 19.1% | 11.2% | 1.71 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 29.1% | 14.1% | 2.06 | 29.1% | 14.1% | 2.06 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 15.7% | 8.9% | 1.76 | 15.7% | 8.9% | 1.76 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 18.1% | 9.5% | 1.91 | 18.1% | 9.5% | 1.91 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 22.7% | 10.7% | 2.12 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 2.12 |
Masahiro Tanaka has under-performed his SwStr% nearly every year in the league, but his K/SwStr has never been this low.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 6.27 | 3.35 | -2.92 | 3.1 | -3.17 | 2.94 | -3.33 | 6.33 | 0.06 | 6.27 | 3.36 | -2.91 | 3.1 | -3.17 | 2.94 | -3.33 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 2.08 | 3.85 | 1.77 | 3.75 | 1.67 | 3.33 | 1.25 | 5.11 | 3.03 | 2.08 | 3.85 | 1.77 | 3.75 | 1.67 | 3.33 | 1.25 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 4.76 | 3.3 | -1.46 | 3.27 | -1.49 | 3.65 | -1.11 | 1.41 | -3.35 | 4.76 | 3.31 | -1.45 | 3.27 | -1.49 | 3.65 | -1.11 |
| Casey Lawrence | TOR | 7.56 | 5.7 | -1.86 | 5.54 | -2.02 | 5.94 | -1.62 | 7.02 | -0.54 | 7.56 | 5.71 | -1.85 | 5.54 | -2.02 | 5.94 | -1.62 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.91 | 1.92 | 1.01 | 2.07 | 1.16 | 1.15 | 0.24 | 0.97 | 0.06 | 0.91 | 1.93 | 1.02 | 2.07 | 1.16 | 1.15 | 0.24 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 4.28 | 3.53 | -0.75 | 3.61 | -0.67 | 4.22 | -0.06 | 5.88 | 1.60 | 4.28 | 3.53 | -0.75 | 3.61 | -0.67 | 4.22 | -0.06 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.82 | 4.07 | -0.75 | 4.02 | -0.8 | 4.39 | -0.43 | 2.68 | -2.14 | 4.82 | 4.08 | -0.74 | 4.02 | -0.8 | 4.39 | -0.43 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 1.35 | 4.07 | 2.72 | 4.01 | 2.66 | 3.35 | 2 | 4.19 | 2.84 | 1.35 | 4.07 | 2.72 | 4.01 | 2.66 | 3.35 | 2 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 5.31 | 5.87 | 0.56 | 5.74 | 0.43 | 7.51 | 2.2 | 4.66 | -0.65 | 5.31 | 5.87 | 0.56 | 5.74 | 0.43 | 7.51 | 2.2 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 3.91 | 4.37 | 0.46 | 4.35 | 0.44 | 6.42 | 2.51 | 8.75 | 4.84 | 3.91 | 4.37 | 0.46 | 4.35 | 0.44 | 6.42 | 2.51 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 1.88 | 5.39 | 3.51 | 5.48 | 3.6 | 3.82 | 1.94 | 2.54 | 0.66 | 1.88 | 5.39 | 3.51 | 5.48 | 3.6 | 3.82 | 1.94 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | ||||||||||||||||
| Justin Verlander | DET | 6.04 | 4.32 | -1.72 | 4.47 | -1.57 | 4.19 | -1.85 | 2.41 | -3.63 | 6.04 | 4.33 | -1.71 | 4.47 | -1.57 | 4.19 | -1.85 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 2 | 4.33 | 2.33 | 4.31 | 2.31 | 4.77 | 2.77 | 1.67 | -0.33 | 2 | 4.33 | 2.33 | 4.31 | 2.31 | 4.77 | 2.77 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 6 | 4.31 | -1.69 | 4.45 | -1.55 | 4.7 | -1.3 | 3.06 | -2.94 | 6 | 4.31 | -1.69 | 4.45 | -1.55 | 4.7 | -1.3 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 7.2 | 6.23 | -0.97 | 6.87 | -0.33 | 7.54 | 0.34 | 7.32 | 0.12 | 7.2 | 6.23 | -0.97 | 6.87 | -0.33 | 7.54 | 0.34 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.87 | 4.28 | -1.59 | 4.54 | -1.33 | 5.2 | -0.67 | 12.64 | 6.77 | 5.87 | 4.28 | -1.59 | 4.54 | -1.33 | 5.2 | -0.67 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 5.4 | 4.11 | -1.29 | 4.14 | -1.26 | 7.41 | 2.01 | 5.22 | -0.18 | 5.4 | 4.11 | -1.29 | 4.14 | -1.26 | 7.41 | 2.01 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 1.73 | 1.97 | 0.24 | 1.92 | 0.19 | 0.75 | -0.98 | 1.69 | -0.04 | 1.73 | 1.97 | 0.24 | 1.92 | 0.19 | 0.75 | -0.98 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 3.86 | 4.35 | 0.49 | 4.21 | 0.35 | 4.92 | 1.06 | 8.64 | 4.78 | 3.86 | 4.36 | 0.5 | 4.21 | 0.35 | 4.92 | 1.06 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 4.76 | 4.11 | -0.65 | 4.39 | -0.37 | 5.85 | 1.09 | 7.16 | 2.40 | 4.76 | 4.11 | -0.65 | 4.39 | -0.37 | 5.85 | 1.09 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 4.57 | 3.7 | -0.87 | 3.87 | -0.7 | 3.22 | -1.35 | 3.40 | -1.17 | 4.57 | 3.7 | -0.87 | 3.87 | -0.7 | 3.22 | -1.35 |
Not a single pitcher on the board (all day) is in line with their estimators yet this year.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.309 | 0.467 | 0.158 | 45.0% | 0.25 | 5.6% | 88.3% | 87.2 | 6.50% | 6.50% | 62 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.284 | 0.216 | -0.068 | 46.7% | 0.227 | 4.3% | 93.3% | 88.6 | 9.20% | 9.20% | 76 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.309 | 0.351 | 0.042 | 45.8% | 0.22 | 15.8% | 83.3% | 87.4 | 5.00% | 5.00% | 60 |
| Casey Lawrence | TOR | 0.299 | 0.333 | 0.034 | 63.3% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 85.7% | 80.7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 31 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.288 | 0.237 | -0.051 | 36.7% | 0.217 | 12.0% | 74.8% | 87.2 | 3.30% | 3.30% | 60 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.326 | 0.261 | -0.065 | 37.8% | 0.216 | 10.0% | 85.4% | 90.5 | 9.50% | 9.50% | 74 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 0.257 | 0.353 | 0.096 | 38.5% | 0.231 | 5.0% | 86.0% | 88.2 | 9.30% | 9.30% | 54 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.283 | 0.243 | -0.04 | 43.8% | 0.192 | 7.4% | 86.2% | 85.2 | 3.90% | 3.90% | 76 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.316 | 0.211 | -0.105 | 42.9% | 0.159 | 7.7% | 90.6% | 86.7 | 7.90% | 7.90% | 63 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 0.272 | 0.182 | -0.09 | 45.2% | 0.178 | 14.8% | 87.2% | 86.5 | 12.30% | 12.30% | 73 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.268 | 0.164 | -0.104 | 28.8% | 0.151 | 9.8% | 83.6% | 87.3 | 6.70% | 6.70% | 75 |
| Julio Urias | LOS | 0.290 | ||||||||||
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.307 | 0.317 | 0.01 | 34.8% | 0.227 | 0.0% | 86.5% | 88.6 | 9.10% | 9.10% | 66 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.250 | 0.204 | -0.046 | 44.2% | 0.192 | 10.5% | 91.2% | 91.6 | 7.70% | 7.70% | 52 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.277 | 0.344 | 0.067 | 51.5% | 0.167 | 9.5% | 84.4% | 89.4 | 11.90% | 11.90% | 67 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | 0.299 | 0.263 | -0.036 | 60.0% | 0.1 | 0.0% | 87.0% | 92.8 | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.301 | 0.325 | 0.024 | 46.3% | 0.159 | 0.0% | 88.2% | 92 | 12.20% | 12.20% | 82 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.267 | 0.273 | 0.006 | 45.8% | 0.167 | 11.1% | 83.3% | 85.7 | 10.20% | 10.20% | 49 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.293 | 0.319 | 0.026 | 57.7% | 0.155 | 0.0% | 91.2% | 84.3 | 4.20% | 4.20% | 72 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.288 | 0.271 | -0.017 | 52.5% | 0.213 | 18.8% | 88.4% | 86 | 3.20% | 3.20% | 62 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.273 | 0.299 | 0.026 | 32.9% | 0.178 | 13.9% | 88.8% | 90.2 | 13.70% | 13.70% | 73 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.303 | 0.323 | 0.02 | 43.3% | 0.194 | 12.0% | 86.0% | 89.6 | 7.50% | 7.50% | 67 |
Similar to ERA estimators, around three quarters of the board (all day) has some manner of BABIP discrepancy in accordance to what their team defense has allowed this season.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It would be kind of silly to provide tiers on a four game slate, no? Here’s a short list of the pitchers I prefer tonight in order of value.
Chris Sale (1) – Ladies and gentlemen, you’re 2017 AL Cy Young award winner. He should probably be in every lineup today.
Taijuan Walker (2) hasn’t shown as much as soon as I’d hoped upon transition to the NL on a healthy foot, but he hasn’t been in many great spots yet. The park is a negative and his price has increased significantly on DraftKings since yesterday, but the Padres are a positive. Yesterday, he was a Tier Four arm before the scratch. Today, a more expensive version of him is probably your second best choice.
Adam Wainwright (3t) is probably not an $8K pitcher anymore, but he may be usable on a four game slate, in the second game of a double-header, against a poor offense. Pay particular attention to what kind of lineup the Jays submit for this game.
Masahiro Tanaka (3t) would probably be off the radar in this spot on most days, but there are just four games and overall, he may be either the second or third best pitcher on the slate.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window