Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, May 25th
Just a five-game night slate on Thursday, but we’re in a bit of a hurry as the baseball day kicks off at noon today. Chris Sale faders probably were happy last night, not because he pitched poorly (22.3 DK points, 41 FD points), but because several cheaper pitchers either did better (Severino) or nearly as well (Morton, Hendricks). A Sale/Ramirez combination still got you 36.8 points on DraftKings and probably didn’t kill you, while leaving room for a few bats.
Since I’m skimping on the open today, I’d like to leave readers with this bit of listening material on the evolution of DRA over the last few years, as it still appears to be a work in progress.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
UPDATE: Jacob deGrom has been pushed back to tomorrow. Rafael Montero will start tonight instead.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 5.3 | 4.42 | 5.43 | 35.0% | 1.01 | 5.75 | 3.11 | WAS | 127 | 127 | 85 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 5.4 | 4.34 | 5.86 | 42.9% | 1 | 3.62 | 4.37 | PIT | 79 | 84 | 107 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | -4.1 | 5.13 | 5. | 38.8% | 0.96 | 5.19 | TAM | 113 | 115 | 104 | |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.4 | 3.65 | 5.36 | 45.0% | 1.13 | 3.51 | 4.64 | TEX | 86 | 77 | 110 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 3.4 | 4.82 | 5.11 | 47.8% | 0.96 | 4.45 | 5.97 | SFO | 72 | 73 | 77 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -6 | 4.05 | 5.66 | 48.8% | 1.01 | 3.7 | 4.71 | SEA | 91 | 72 | 37 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -5.8 | 4.04 | 5.83 | 51.7% | 1 | 3.66 | 3.62 | ATL | 99 | 96 | 121 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | -4.1 | 3.24 | 6.28 | 44.9% | 0.91 | 3.24 | 3.14 | SDG | 80 | 83 | 69 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 2.1 | 4 | 6.52 | 43.0% | 0.96 | 3.76 | 2.63 | CHC | 102 | 91 | 137 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.3 | 3.74 | 6.6 | 33.5% | 0.94 | 4.08 | 4.8 | HOU | 110 | 118 | 73 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | -1.3 | 3.68 | 5.51 | 42.4% | 0.89 | 3.79 | 3.82 | STL | 93 | 101 | 68 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0 | 3.7 | 6.32 | 48.5% | 1.01 | 3.58 | 5.11 | KAN | 71 | 79 | 81 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | -0.1 | 3.97 | 5.45 | 44.1% | 0.96 | 3.88 | 4.28 | ANA | 79 | 93 | 111 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -10.2 | 4.09 | 5.76 | 45.1% | 0.89 | 4.21 | 4.49 | LOS | 120 | 111 | 103 |
| Miguel Almonte | KAN | 8.5 | 4.58 | 52.2% | 1.01 | NYY | 132 | 122 | 86 | |||
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -3.5 | 4.2 | 5.68 | 41.1% | 0.94 | 3.75 | 4.15 | DET | 85 | 99 | 86 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.7 | 5.15 | 5.43 | 44.7% | 1.13 | 6.13 | 5.05 | BOS | 89 | 102 | 106 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -5 | 3.82 | 5.54 | 44.0% | 1.02 | 3.38 | 5.56 | MIL | 103 | 112 | 88 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 2.6 | 3.86 | 5.79 | 48.4% | 0.96 | 3.9 | 2.99 | PHI | 104 | 94 | 45 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 11.1 | 3.76 | 5.44 | 35.7% | 0.96 | 3.47 | 4.26 | COL | 91 | 81 | 106 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -5.8 | 4.25 | 5.66 | 46.1% | 1.02 | 3.99 | 5.31 | ARI | 75 | 113 | 123 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -9.1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.91 | NYM | 82 | 95 | 102 |
Drew Pomeranz has thrown fewer than 80 pitches in two of his last three starts. He jumped up to 97 in his most recent effort, but it was still his third straight effort of four innings or less. He’s gone no more than six innings in any of his eight starts this season and more than 5.1 only twice. This is more of an issue than his high ERA. He’s also allowing much more hard contact (36.1 Hard%, 9.3% Barrels/BBE) with the lowest GB rate (38.7%) of his career. His 17.2 K-BB% is identical to last season though. His velocity trended down in each of his first five starts, but has trended up in each of his last three, perhaps due to shorter outings, but again, he threw 97 pitches last time out. His chase rate is down. His contact rates are up. His SwStr% is down two full points and may not support his SwStr%, but seems to be more in line over the last month. We can’t just look at the strikeout rate and deny there are issues here, but the matchup may not be that bad and it is just a five game slate (hopefully). The Rangers are one of the worst offenses in baseball against LHP (16.7 K-BB%).
Jacob deGrom is the top pitcher in action on any slate today. His 15.3 SwStr% is tops and his 32.3 K% is the only rate above 29%. He’s struck out at least nine in five of his last seven starts. His walk (9.8%) and hard contact (36.3%) rates are the highest of his career, while he’s already almost half way to his career high in HRs (16 with seven this year), but weather is really the only issue here. He’s facing the Padres ast home (18.1 K-BB% on the road, 16.7 K-BB% vs RHP, -2.0 Hard-Soft% last seven days).
Justin Verlander has now had a double digit SwStr% in three straight starts, which is great news for at least one aspect of his game. His 36.3 Hard% (above 30% only one other time) with 9.6% Barrels/BBE are concerning, now that his GB rate has dipped to 29.9% and with a career high 11.7 BB%. Houston has decreased their strikeout rate and has been a top offense against RHP. They are also third with a 119 sOPS+ (via Baseball-Reference) against power pitchers and eight against GB pitchers (108 sOPS+).
Kenta Maeda has had a 12.9 SwStr% or better in five of seven starts. He’s also gone at least seven innings in two of his last three, but no more than five in any of his other starts. The good news is that we know they’ll let him throw 100 pitches now. Actually, that’s great news on this slate. His ERA is a run and a half higher this year, though his 19.0 K-BB% is a point better than last year and his 28.9 Hard% is a fraction from being identical to last season, yet he’s 40% of the way to last year’s HR rate, partially due to a steep decline in GB rate (43.9% to 35.8%). His 83.7 mph aEV is one of the top marks on the board. The good news is that he’s been above 40% in each of his last three starts after three straight starts below 30%. Things are trending in the right direction and the Cardinals are an average offense against RHP in one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
Robbie Ray has the highest aEV (89.7 mph) on the entire day along with the highest hard hit rate (46.2%). The Brewers have a 38.7 Hard% and 20 HR/FB at home with a 36 Hard% and 19.2 HR/FB vs LHP. However, they strike out a quarter of the time in both instances. Against power pitchers, that increases to a 29.7 K%, but they also have the second best sOPS+ (121). Much like this matchup appears to be, Ray’s slider has been feast or famine this year, the potential cause of most his glory along with his misery. I’m actually surprised this doesn’t happen with more pitchers. His 28.9 K% is second highest on the day.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Michael Wacha (.295 – 81.1% – 10.5) has seen his has his highest K-BB (16.1%) since his rookie season with a career low 23.3 Hard%, matching his 23.2 LD%. His 83.1 mph aEV supports that. The strand rate is a bit high, but that’s not really the issue here. He’s still certainly a more consistent and improved pitcher this year. Although they didn’t do much last night, the Dodgers are still one of the top offenses at home (21.8 Hard-Soft%) and against RHP (10.1 BB%, 20.3 Hard-Soft%). This is a tough sell for more than $8K, but would be the next man up if we increased the cut mark by one more arm.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Dinelson Lamet will make his major league debut against La Mets. It’s almost comical. While he only received a 40 grade and the “25th spot in the organization”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-reports-san-diego-padres/ in Fangraphs’ prospect rankings for this season, there’s nothing comical about his stuff that has seen him exceed a 25% strikeout rate at every stop of the minors except for 65 innings at high A (20.2%) to open last season. He also had a 12% walk rate at AAA this year and has never been able to cut it much below 9.5% at any level. This, along with a two pitch fastball/slider combo without a competent third pitch against LHBs has led some to believe his upside is a top of the bullpen arm. The lack of that third quality pitch could be an issue against a LH Mets lineup, but there’s occasionally some type of bonus for the unknown for debuting pitchers.
Mike Fiers owns the highest rate of Barrels on the slate (10.7% per BBE, 7.6% per PA). The Tigers have a 42.6 Hard% vs RHP.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.8% | Road | 17.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 10.6% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 15.9% | 4.1% | Home | 20.9% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 4.6% |
| Daniel Wright | Angels | L2 Years | 12.0% | 6.0% | Road | 12.3% | 4.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.8% | 9.2% | Home | 27.6% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 14.7% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 14.6% | 8.8% | Home | 15.8% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.1% | 8.9% | Home | 24.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 11.5% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.8% | 4.8% | Road | 17.9% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 1.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 27.2% | 6.2% | Home | 30.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 29.1% | 7.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.4% | 5.8% | Road | 21.8% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.1% | 6.9% | Road | 25.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 10.7% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.9% | 6.7% | Home | 25.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 20.7% | 4.6% | Home | 22.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 11.4% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 20.6% | 6.1% | Home | 22.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 8.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.8% | Road | 18.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 13.0% |
| Miguel Almonte | Royals | L2 Years | 24.4% | 17.1% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.2% | Home | 20.2% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 6.1% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.6% | 8.4% | Road | 10.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 4.4% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 26.1% | 9.8% | Road | 30.5% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 12.2% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.4% | Road | 20.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 8.3% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.2% | 8.8% | Home | 31.5% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 10.4% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.0% | Home | 20.4% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 6.4% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 18.3% | 9.8% | LH | 21.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.7% | 9.0% | RH | 18.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.1% | 10.4% |
| Rays | Home | 25.6% | 9.9% | RH | 26.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 29.8% | 10.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 23.4% | 8.0% | LH | 24.3% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.1% |
| Giants | Road | 21.2% | 7.8% | RH | 20.0% | 7.0% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 21.0% | 8.3% | LH | 17.7% | 11.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 6.0% |
| Braves | Home | 20.6% | 8.7% | RH | 20.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.8% |
| Padres | Road | 25.2% | 7.1% | RH | 24.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 10.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.9% | 10.3% | RH | 21.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.0% |
| Astros | Home | 18.5% | 7.9% | RH | 18.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.4% | 8.1% | RH | 20.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.7% |
| Royals | Road | 22.0% | 6.5% | RH | 21.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.0% |
| Angels | Road | 22.1% | 9.5% | RH | 20.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.9% | 14.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.7% | 9.7% | RH | 21.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 24.0% | 10.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 24.2% | 10.9% | RH | 22.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 29.0% | 6.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.9% | 10.1% | RH | 23.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 25.0% | 11.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 9.2% | RH | 17.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.8% | 9.4% | LH | 25.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.6% | 12.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.8% | 9.6% | LH | 22.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.2% | 4.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.3% | 7.6% | RH | 21.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.1% | 8.7% | RH | 23.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.7% |
| Mets | Home | 19.4% | 9.4% | RH | 19.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 33.4% | 14.0% | 15.7% | 2017 | 29.1% | 14.3% | 11.4% | Road | 31.6% | 14.5% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 6.7% | -8.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 33.0% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 2017 | 36.4% | 12.3% | 16.4% | Home | 33.8% | 11.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 17.2% |
| Daniel Wright | Angels | L2 Years | 35.0% | 11.8% | 18.3% | 2017 | 22.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | Road | 39.4% | 16.7% | 25.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.7% | 13.8% | 9.9% | 2017 | 36.1% | 17.1% | 12.9% | Home | 33.6% | 17.5% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 45.0% | 0.0% | 35.0% |
| Eddie Butler | Cubs | L2 Years | 34.0% | 19.5% | 18.2% | 2017 | 29.2% | 0.0% | -4.1% | Home | 39.3% | 26.9% | 25.6% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 0.0% | -4.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.3% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 2017 | 30.5% | 16.9% | 7.3% | Home | 31.5% | 13.9% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 30.0% | 22.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.0% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 2017 | 30.5% | 9.4% | 14.7% | Road | 35.5% | 15.6% | 21.0% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 22.2% | 18.4% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 2017 | 36.3% | 15.9% | 14.8% | Home | 29.3% | 11.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 11.1% | 17.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.3% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 2017 | 28.1% | 13.5% | 4.3% | Road | 29.6% | 14.6% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 2017 | 36.3% | 7.7% | 21.6% | Road | 29.5% | 10.6% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 29.0% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 2017 | 29.0% | 17.0% | 10.6% | Home | 27.5% | 10.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.9% | 16.1% | 13.4% | 2017 | 32.7% | 24.5% | 14.2% | Home | 35.0% | 17.2% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 56.5% | 58.3% | 39.1% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 35.5% | 12.4% | 18.5% | 2017 | 42.6% | 18.8% | 27.7% | Home | 38.1% | 13.5% | 22.4% | L14 Days | 48.4% | 16.7% | 35.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.9% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 2017 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 4.3% | Road | 26.1% | 11.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miguel Almonte | Royals | L2 Years | 26.1% | 40.0% | -8.7% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.1% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 2017 | 31.5% | 34.0% | 12.3% | Home | 34.4% | 17.1% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 18.8% | -8.6% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 16.3% | 12.9% | 2017 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 2.4% | Road | 29.3% | 13.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.4% | 12.5% | 21.9% | 2017 | 46.2% | 14.6% | 31.6% | Road | 36.4% | 13.6% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 12.5% | 8.9% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.6% | 16.4% | 4.7% | 2017 | 29.6% | 25.6% | 6.4% | Road | 29.2% | 21.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 33.3% | -3.5% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.1% | 13.8% | 14.6% | 2017 | 36.3% | 21.4% | 21.8% | Home | 33.6% | 17.7% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 11.1% | 31.3% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.7% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 2017 | 34.6% | 15.1% | 11.1% | Home | 35.6% | 13.2% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 18.2% | 2.7% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 33.2% | 15.7% | 16.8% | LH | 30.9% | 19.6% | 11.0% | L7Days | 30.5% | 12.3% | 8.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 29.2% | 11.2% | 7.9% | RH | 29.0% | 9.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 27.7% | 11.8% | 2.9% |
| Rays | Home | 36.6% | 15.2% | 17.8% | RH | 36.6% | 17.9% | 18.8% | L7Days | 45.7% | 20.0% | 33.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.7% | 14.0% | 10.7% | LH | 30.7% | 14.1% | 10.5% | L7Days | 39.5% | 12.1% | 19.1% |
| Giants | Road | 31.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | RH | 28.6% | 10.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 34.2% | 11.3% | 8.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 29.6% | 10.5% | 11.5% | LH | 24.5% | 5.7% | 1.7% | L7Days | 27.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% |
| Braves | Home | 31.0% | 13.2% | 13.3% | RH | 30.6% | 11.3% | 12.2% | L7Days | 32.1% | 15.3% | 14.2% |
| Padres | Road | 30.7% | 15.6% | 9.3% | RH | 28.8% | 14.3% | 6.2% | L7Days | 27.5% | 6.9% | -2.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 30.5% | 15.5% | 13.7% | RH | 30.3% | 12.7% | 13.8% | L7Days | 37.4% | 25.5% | 24.5% |
| Astros | Home | 27.6% | 16.1% | 8.3% | RH | 31.0% | 14.1% | 12.6% | L7Days | 25.2% | 15.5% | 8.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 10.4% | 16.2% | RH | 30.8% | 12.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 34.3% | 5.3% | 17.9% |
| Royals | Road | 31.6% | 13.9% | 12.0% | RH | 31.9% | 12.3% | 12.1% | L7Days | 34.1% | 18.2% | 19.3% |
| Angels | Road | 32.0% | 11.5% | 13.7% | RH | 30.1% | 13.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 38.6% | 14.0% | 24.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.5% | 15.7% | 21.8% | RH | 35.0% | 13.2% | 20.3% | L7Days | 34.9% | 20.5% | 19.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.9% | 22.2% | 8.8% | RH | 31.0% | 18.1% | 11.1% | L7Days | 35.5% | 15.2% | 16.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 36.1% | 12.6% | 18.6% | RH | 42.6% | 12.2% | 26.7% | L7Days | 37.3% | 13.6% | 17.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 37.1% | 6.8% | 18.3% | RH | 36.0% | 9.6% | 18.4% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.8% | 10.8% |
| Brewers | Home | 38.7% | 20.7% | 18.2% | LH | 36.0% | 19.2% | 15.3% | L7Days | 27.1% | 11.1% | 0.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.9% | 13.9% | 9.1% | LH | 31.6% | 17.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 30.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 31.2% | 13.2% | 11.0% | RH | 30.6% | 13.4% | 10.5% | L7Days | 27.0% | 14.8% | 6.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.9% | 14.5% | 11.6% | RH | 38.6% | 17.6% | 23.7% | L7Days | 37.0% | 21.6% | 24.0% |
| Mets | Home | 32.1% | 8.7% | 12.3% | RH | 33.3% | 11.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 37.7% | 10.9% | 23.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.36 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 2.27 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 15.7% | 5.2% | 3.02 | 13.0% | 4.7% | 2.77 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 12.7% | 9.1% | 1.40 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 2.56 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 26.6% | 9.1% | 2.92 | 24.3% | 9.8% | 2.48 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 20.0% | 8.6% | 2.33 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 2.33 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.19 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 2.14 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 14.7% | 7.4% | 1.99 | 14.9% | 8.5% | 1.75 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 32.3% | 15.3% | 2.11 | 32.8% | 13.4% | 2.45 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 28.5% | 10.7% | 2.66 | 29.3% | 10.0% | 2.93 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.43 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 2.34 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 24.5% | 15.2% | 1.61 | 26.9% | 15.8% | 1.70 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 17.8% | 12.7% | 1.40 | 16.5% | 12.1% | 1.36 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 21.8% | 9.9% | 2.20 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 2.34 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 23.2% | 10.1% | 2.30 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 2.76 |
| Miguel Almonte | KAN | ||||||
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 19.6% | 9.8% | 2.00 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 2.20 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 12.8% | 6.4% | 2.00 | 13.0% | 6.2% | 2.10 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 28.9% | 12.9% | 2.24 | 28.2% | 14.1% | 2.00 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 23.4% | 12.0% | 1.95 | 26.7% | 12.6% | 2.12 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 23.6% | 10.2% | 2.31 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 1.97 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 17.5% | 6.9% | 2.54 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.87 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG |
Drew Pomeranz has a double digit SwStr% in three of his last five, but below 8% in two of his last three, so you can cherry pick that any way you want. We can’t expect a strikeout rate above 25% with a single digit SwStr% though.
Kenta Maeda has increased his SwStr% by 3.6 points from last year, yet his strikeout rate has dropped half a point, while his walk rate has dropped too. This is a tough one to figure out.
Michael Wacha has had a 10 SwStr% in each of his last two starts, making the monthly mark less of a concern.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 4.28 | 4.07 | -0.21 | 4.38 | 0.1 | 4.56 | 0.28 | 4.09 | -0.19 | 4.23 | 4.01 | -0.22 | 4.47 | 0.24 | 3.94 | -0.29 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 6.38 | 4.63 | -1.75 | 4.73 | -1.65 | 4.57 | -1.81 | 7.93 | 1.55 | 8.25 | 4.93 | -3.32 | 5.09 | -3.16 | 5.37 | -2.88 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 5.54 | 5.48 | -0.06 | 5.68 | 0.14 | 4.57 | -0.97 | 5.03 | -0.51 | 11.25 | 3.7 | -7.55 | 4.25 | -7 | 5.78 | -5.47 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4.97 | 3.81 | -1.16 | 3.78 | -1.19 | 4.32 | -0.65 | 4.85 | -0.12 | 5.24 | 4.19 | -1.05 | 4.11 | -1.13 | 4.6 | -0.64 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 2 | 5.97 | 3.97 | 5.06 | 3.06 | 3.92 | 1.92 | 5.41 | 3.41 | 2 | 5.97 | 3.97 | 5.06 | 3.06 | 3.92 | 1.92 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.86 | 4.91 | 2.05 | 4.73 | 1.87 | 5.24 | 2.38 | 4.43 | 1.57 | 4.2 | 5.45 | 1.25 | 5.19 | 0.99 | 6.83 | 2.63 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 2.63 | 3.94 | 1.31 | 3.63 | 1 | 3.21 | 0.58 | 4.94 | 2.31 | 3.12 | 3.84 | 0.72 | 3.55 | 0.43 | 3.29 | 0.17 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.56 | 3.21 | -0.35 | 2.95 | -0.61 | 3.23 | -0.33 | 1.97 | -1.59 | 4.35 | 3.18 | -1.17 | 2.99 | -1.36 | 3.65 | -0.7 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.57 | 2.97 | -1.6 | 2.85 | -1.72 | 2.89 | -1.68 | 2.29 | -2.28 | 2.7 | 2.63 | -0.07 | 2.76 | 0.06 | 1.83 | -0.87 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.39 | 4.61 | 0.22 | 5.02 | 0.63 | 4.01 | -0.38 | 2.80 | -1.59 | 3.27 | 4.68 | 1.41 | 5.24 | 1.97 | 3.82 | 0.55 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 5.03 | 3.64 | -1.39 | 3.73 | -1.3 | 4.33 | -0.7 | 4.30 | -0.73 | 2.21 | 3.18 | 0.97 | 2.91 | 0.7 | 2.2 | -0.01 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 6.56 | 4.33 | -2.23 | 4.43 | -2.13 | 6.05 | -0.51 | 4.86 | -1.70 | 7 | 4.19 | -2.81 | 4.25 | -2.75 | 7.03 | 0.03 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 3.75 | 4.16 | 0.41 | 4.05 | 0.3 | 4.74 | 0.99 | 3.98 | 0.23 | 3.68 | 4.13 | 0.45 | 4.12 | 0.44 | 4.26 | 0.58 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.74 | 3.85 | 1.11 | 3.65 | 0.91 | 3.34 | 0.6 | 3.23 | 0.49 | 3 | 3.68 | 0.68 | 3.27 | 0.27 | 2.74 | -0.26 |
| Miguel Almonte | KAN | ||||||||||||||||
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 5.14 | 4.45 | -0.69 | 4.5 | -0.64 | 7.72 | 2.58 | 7.46 | 2.32 | 5 | 4.52 | -0.48 | 4.58 | -0.42 | 7.85 | 2.85 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 4.33 | 4.86 | 0.53 | 4.87 | 0.54 | 5.21 | 0.88 | 5.96 | 1.63 | 5.08 | 4.87 | -0.21 | 4.94 | -0.14 | 5.86 | 0.78 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.91 | 4.01 | 0.1 | 3.83 | -0.08 | 4 | 0.09 | 3.34 | -0.57 | 4.3 | 4.01 | -0.29 | 4.15 | -0.15 | 4.06 | -0.24 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 6 | 3.87 | -2.13 | 3.65 | -2.35 | 5.1 | -0.9 | 4.36 | -1.64 | 5.08 | 3.46 | -1.62 | 3.21 | -1.87 | 4.69 | -0.39 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 5.98 | 4.22 | -1.76 | 4.13 | -1.85 | 5.16 | -0.82 | 5.34 | 4.19 | -1.15 | 4.04 | -1.3 | 4.64 | -0.7 | ||
| Zach Davies | MIL | 5.44 | 4.78 | -0.66 | 4.82 | -0.62 | 5.1 | -0.34 | 6.72 | 1.28 | 3.38 | 4.58 | 1.2 | 4.67 | 1.29 | 5.25 | 1.87 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG |
Drew Pomeranz has a BABIP 59 points higher than last year and 47 points higher than his career rate with an ordinary profile, but more line drives and contact in the zone along, while it fits with what his team has allowed. The 17.1 HR/FB is likely a product of harder contact and smaller sample, but he does have a 12.1 career HR/FB and was at league average (13.6 HR/FB) last year. If the strikeout rate dips, in a tough park, I’m not sure how much improvement to expect sans adjustments.
Kenta Maeda went from over-shooting his estimators to under-shooting them. Overall, his 66.1% strand rate is still quite low (nearly 10 points below last year), while the 17.0 HR/FB is a bit high.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.291 | 0.273 | -0.018 | 39.7% | 0.14 | 12.7% | 87.3% | 86.6 | 7.80% | 5.40% | 141 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.284 | 0.331 | 0.047 | 38.9% | 0.21 | 12.3% | 92.1% | 89.6 | 8.50% | 6.70% | 165 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 0.275 | 0.325 | 0.05 | 39.0% | 0.22 | 12.5% | 83.3% | 86.3 | 2.40% | 1.80% | 41 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.308 | 0.327 | 0.019 | 38.7% | 0.226 | 9.8% | 87.3% | 88.9 | 9.30% | 5.90% | 108 |
| Eddie Butler | CHC | 0.297 | 0.208 | -0.089 | 56.5% | 0.174 | 33.3% | 80.5% | 83 | 4.20% | 2.50% | 24 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.294 | 0.260 | -0.034 | 45.6% | 0.171 | 6.8% | 87.5% | 85.6 | 7.30% | 5.00% | 164 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.308 | 0.283 | -0.025 | 51.3% | 0.215 | 7.5% | 92.5% | 88.1 | 5.90% | 4.90% | 203 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.320 | 0.336 | 0.016 | 43.7% | 0.237 | 9.1% | 74.4% | 87.8 | 5.20% | 3.00% | 135 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.304 | 0.331 | 0.027 | 39.1% | 0.286 | 9.6% | 83.8% | 86.2 | 6.70% | 4.40% | 164 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.299 | 0.278 | -0.021 | 29.9% | 0.204 | 9.0% | 84.4% | 88.4 | 9.60% | 6.30% | 157 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.296 | 0.274 | -0.022 | 35.8% | 0.211 | 6.4% | 81.1% | 83.7 | 5.30% | 3.70% | 114 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.282 | 0.329 | 0.047 | 49.7% | 0.174 | 15.1% | 87.6% | 89.4 | 11.10% | 8.20% | 162 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.271 | 0.273 | 0.002 | 47.3% | 0.199 | 10.4% | 84.2% | 89 | 7.40% | 5.10% | 148 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.282 | 0.295 | 0.013 | 42.9% | 0.232 | 2.6% | 84.3% | 83.1 | 5.20% | 3.60% | 116 |
| Miguel Almonte | KAN | 0.296 | ||||||||||
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.275 | 0.235 | -0.04 | 48.1% | 0.132 | 8.0% | 85.7% | 86.9 | 10.70% | 7.60% | 131 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.284 | 0.261 | -0.023 | 44.6% | 0.174 | 13.0% | 89.1% | 86 | 9.00% | 7.40% | 122 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.284 | 0.276 | -0.008 | 40.5% | 0.214 | 12.5% | 81.3% | 89.7 | 8.50% | 4.90% | 130 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.282 | 0.313 | 0.031 | 42.3% | 0.263 | 11.6% | 82.1% | 83.5 | 8.50% | 5.70% | 142 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.293 | 0.287 | -0.006 | 43.5% | 0.226 | 11.9% | 84.4% | 89.2 | 8.10% | 5.20% | 124 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.316 | 0.345 | 0.029 | 40.7% | 0.24 | 13.2% | 90.6% | 86.5 | 7.20% | 5.20% | 153 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.301 |
Jacob deGrom has a high BABIP that is largely a combination of an increased LD rate and terrible defense, but the LD has always run a bit high, which may be a surprise.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Jacob deGrom (1) is the top pitcher on the slate with the most upside by a wide margin and has the top matchup. Weather is our concern here. Aside from ownership considerations (which will likely be through the roof), we may need for Kevin to issue some red to consider fading him. Perhaps a less confidence inspiring, but potentially playable forecast could reduce ownership.
Value Tier Two
Kenta Maeda (2) is trending positively in just about every category (innings, contact), while his SwStr% has been dominant all season. He still costs less than $9K against an average offense in a great park. If deGrom appears to have weather related issues, this is where most ownership should fall. If it doesn’t look that way, there’s opportunity here for players.
Drew Pomeranz has been a flawed pitcher who is not even a lock for five innings this year and we can’t just look at an identical K-BB% to last season and assume everything is going to be okay. The Rangers have struggled against LHP though, and it’s just a five game slate. The good news is that the cost is now down below $8K and we seem to be looking at temperatures in the low 50s with a decent wind blowing in, likely pitching favorable conditions at Fenway tonight.
Value Tier Three
Robbie Ray may come close to deGrom in strikeout rate projection tonight, but the risk is significantly higher against a high powered, predominantly RH offense. Players who can correctly predict how this matchup goes are likely to be among the winners tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Justin Verlander is the second most expensive pitcher on either site, but at least still below $10K. The flaws have been obvious in higher rates of walks and hard contact and he’s not in a great spot in Houston tonight. The positives are that he’s still consistently giving you six to seven innings per start and the SwStr% has begun to tick up, which could mean good things for his strikeout rate going forward.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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