Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, May 17th
Baseball has once again gathered all of the top arms in the league to pitch on the same night making your daily fantasy choices difficult not only tonight, but also for the rest of the week. The good news is that it should easily take some difficult reads out of play immediately. (I’m talking about you Ubaldo!) Expect the money to be divided easily among a few top options tonight.
Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | -8.8 | 6.46 | 5. | 1.09 | 0.95 | 5.14 | 6.64 | PIT | 114 | 109 | 96 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 9.7 | 4.13 | 5.74 | 1.6 | 0.99 | 3.97 | 4.03 | HOU | 96 | 111 | 92 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 5.3 | 4.04 | 5.86 | 1.79 | 0.97 | 4.22 | 3.1 | STL | 113 | 127 | 122 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -9 | 4.15 | 5.5 | 1.17 | 1.05 | 4.29 | 4.42 | CHC | 126 | 113 | 98 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -1 | 3.39 | 6.12 | 1.39 | 1.02 | 3.56 | 3.96 | TOR | 100 | 95 | 108 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | -1 | 2.16 | 7.26 | 1.73 | 0.9 | 1.82 | 1.38 | ANA | 105 | 98 | 125 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 16.4 | 3.36 | 6.71 | 1.59 | 0.95 | 3.52 | 1.97 | OAK | 69 | 81 | 100 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 1.8 | 4.47 | 5.46 | 1.55 | 0.86 | 3.88 | 5.02 | SFO | 93 | 102 | 88 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 1.7 | 3.13 | 6.92 | 3.17 | 0.99 | 3.53 | 4.26 | CHW | 98 | 102 | 119 |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | -15.3 | 5.06 | 4.4 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 6.79 | 5.01 | TEX | 83 | 94 | 107 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | -14.3 | 3.2 | 6.42 | 2.64 | 0.97 | 2.75 | 2 | COL | 96 | 106 | 92 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 9.3 | 4.58 | 6.1 | 0.69 | 0.9 | 5.87 | 4.06 | LOS | 77 | 86 | 95 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 0.7 | 3.97 | 4.79 | 1.32 | 0.95 | 3.66 | 4.4 | ATL | 58 | 66 | 70 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 13.5 | 3.51 | 5.8 | 1.85 | 1.05 | 3.5 | 2.86 | MIL | 105 | 99 | 97 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -4.5 | 3.01 | 6.75 | 1.19 | 0.86 | 3.4 | 3.59 | SDG | 72 | 96 | 76 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 2.9 | 3.31 | 6.35 | 2.25 | 1.02 | 3.44 | 2.34 | TAM | 118 | 92 | 129 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 4.1 | 2.83 | 6.79 | 0.81 | 0.87 | 2.83 | 1.41 | NYM | 95 | 106 | 67 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | -1.4 | 3.22 | 5.95 | 1.45 | 1.07 | 3.03 | 4.09 | ARI | 100 | 96 | 111 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | -9.7 | 4.69 | 5.41 | 1.92 | 1.01 | 4.22 | 3.64 | MIN | 84 | 91 | 98 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -5.2 | 2.85 | 6.33 | 1.53 | 0.87 | 2.62 | 3.62 | WAS | 95 | 85 | 111 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | -5 | 3.76 | 6.27 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 4.4 | 4.7 | DET | 98 | 110 | 125 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.9 | 3.77 | 6.37 | 1.52 | 1.04 | 3.81 | 4.33 | KAN | 86 | 89 | 100 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -3.8 | 4.23 | 5.61 | 1.53 | 1.04 | 3.57 | 4.52 | SEA | 115 | 108 | 108 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | -2.1 | 3.5 | 5.79 | 0.78 | 1.02 | 3.36 | 3.9 | FLA | 111 | 102 | 93 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | -9.3 | 3.95 | 6.08 | 1.71 | 1.04 | 4.43 | 3.26 | BAL | 115 | 92 | 145 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 4.2 | 3.89 | 6.12 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 4.24 | 3.61 | PHI | 68 | 65 | 91 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 9.7 | 4.13 | 5.84 | 1.63 | 1.04 | 3.71 | 6.51 | BOS | 118 | 130 | 183 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -8.2 | 3.21 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 1.07 | 3.44 | 3.34 | NYY | 63 | 89 | 98 |
Clayton Kershaw has an ERA and estimators below two. That’s ridiculous. He has a 32.4 K-BB%. His SwStr is 17.3% over the last month with a 39.0 K%. He has gone seven innings in all eight starts, eight innings in half of them and nine innings in two of his last three, while only going over 110 pitches twice. This may be the most dominant and efficient pitcher we’ve ever seen. He’s facing…….you know what? Does it even matter who he’s facing?
Cole Hamels has shown a couple of favorable signs over his last two outings, not even counting the 34.6 K%. His velocity has ticked up slightly while he’s walked just a total of two after walking at least three in four of his first five starts. He can often be erratic in the walk, strikeout, and HR department, making him difficult to trust consistently, but if we at least are more confident in his health, the upside is there. He has a quality matchup against a below average offense at home and vs LHP in a negative run environment tonight. The A’s don’t necessarily strike out a lot, but rarely walk (3.9% vs LHP).
Jaime Garcia went through a bit of a rough patch with his control after his complete game dominance of the Brewers early in his second start, but has bounced back with two consecutive masterful starts (14 IP – 6 H – 2 R (0 ER) – 1 BB – 13 K – 49 BF). He has a 24.1 K% with a 6.3 HR/FB (2.4 Hard-Soft%) at home since last season and is one of just two qualified pitchers (both going today) with a 60% ground ball rate. Colorado has improved immensely to the point that we can even consider them a neutral matchup on the road. They have a 23.0 HR/FB vs LHP (likely because of Coors) but also a 25.8 K%.
Juan Nicasio has the slam dunk top matchup of the night against the Braves, although they did score some runs late in last night’s game and project to be at least a little bit more competent against RHPs going forward with three at least decent LHBs atop the order. It’s still a mess once you get past Freeman though. Nicasio has had just two good starts, thought didn’t walk a batter, while striking out five Reds in his last start despite allowing four runs. It’s really the Braves we’re concerned about though. Look at the Opponent’s Batted Ball chart below. All of the stats Hard%, HR/FB, and Hard-Soft% are among the most favorable for the pitcher.
Kyle Hendricks hasn’t finished the 7th inning, but has gotten to the sixth in all six starts and put forth great numbers while he’s been in there. Had he enough innings to qualify, he’d have the second highest ground ball rate (61.9%) in the majors with a 1.0 Hard-Soft% and 21.8 K%, very similar to Jaime Garcia. Behind Arrieta, Lester, and Lackey, this is a very underrated quality pitcher. He faces a team with a lot of power (16.9 HR/FB, 20.1 Hard-Soft% at home, 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but the high ground ball rate should contain much of the damage in the air and they strike out a ton (25.3% at home, 26.2% vs RHP, 27.8% last seven days).
Madison Bumgarner walked four Blue Jays in not his finest effort last time out, but has gone at least six innings in each of his last five with his velocity ticking up in each of the last three. He also snapped a string of six straight starts with at least seven strikeouts. He already has on strong start against the Padres, who aren’t awful vs LHP (13.9 HR/FB, 19.4 Hard-Soft%), but do have a 25.1 K% and have really struggled to find offense at home, making them one of the better matchups tonight.
Marcus Stroman has pitched at least season in all but one start this year and more in all except two. He has the top ground ball rate in the league (62.3%), though a below average K%, though even that has risen over the last month. He’s becomes a strong daily fantasy candidate if he can maintain anything close to an average K% rather than the very low totals he showed in April. However, although he avoids a lot of hard contact (26.2 Hard%), he doesn’t induce as much weak contact (15.5 Soft%) as some of today’s other 60% ground ball rates and has the highest aEV (91.7 mph) on today’s board. The Rays are a tough offense that has flashed a ton of power this season (18.8 HR/FB on the road, 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP, 23.2 HR/FB last seven days), but strike out a ton (26.5% on the road, 26.4% vs RHP, 24.0% over the last week).
Max Scherzer both validated my thoughts that he’d be better this season, but also embarrassed me when I said we shouldn’t expect last season’s heights. What can you say about 20 strikeouts except that he’s highly unlikely to repeat the feat? He threw just 119 pitches too (96 strikes) with an extra day of rest, which doesn’t leave him in a bad position for tonight’s start either. A 26.1 SwStr% will really spike your season rate. He’s been above 15% in each of his last four starts. His ERA is still above four because HRs (7th highest rate in baseball and is the only one in the top 20th a sub-1.0 GB/FB) and that could be an issue tonight against the Mets (15.2 HR/FB, 18.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). They also are also the coldest set of bats in the majors and that’s something coming out of a series in Colorado with slightly above average strikeout rates for the season, but a 28.3 K% over the last week.
Michael Pineda was spanked again last time out and even walked more than three for the third time this season, which is very uncharacteristic for a pitcher with a career 5.2 BB%. However, he struck out seven and his 13.2 SwStr% is still a career high and all nine of his HRs have come at home. That’s a little bit of faulty information. He’s only pitched twice on the road and Arizona is not really an upgrade, while the Diamondbacks exploded on debuting pitchers for the Yankees (two) last night. It’s still a weakened lineup that had Michael Bourn batting second and here comes the most interesting part for me. Over his last two starts, Pineda has begun to increase his GB rate (18 total) with exactly a 20% hard hit rate. The biggest concern would be that Arizona has continued to hit the ball well without Peralta (44.2 Hard%) and Pineda has the second highest exit velocity on the slate (91.5 mph).
Noah Syndergaard has allowed three HRs, while not exceeding six strikeouts in any of his last three starts, while the genius who manages him believes it better that he find more contact to keep his pitch count down as they also work too hard on cutting down his stolen bases. Leave him be! He did pitch a season high eight innings in his last start with at least 5.2 IP in every start. Now for the great news. He has the lowest exit velocity on the slate (85.6 mph) and has a 25.3 K-BB% at home since his debut. The Nationals are fearsome from the left side (Harper and the returning Daniel Murphy – who better get a tremendous ovation tonight even in a Nationals uniform), but the remaining RH portion of their lineup (generally four or five batters with Revere back) are all awful against RHP.
Zack Greinke struggled for the fourth time (four ERs or more) in five home starts. He’s struck out four or fewer in three of those starts and has allowed all six of his HRs at home. This is concerning as he’s been accused of acquiring mental blocks in certain situations earlier in his career. Let’s hope a tough park and catching situation hasn’t caused another such spot, although that’s never something you can either validate or measure. The good news is that he faces the second worst road offense in baseball, well behind the third worst and they lose a DH in an NL park. The Yankee don’t strike out often, but have just a 24.9 Hard% vs RHP and -1.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
The only pitcher who genuinely fits this criteria today has been awful by any means (Aaron Blair) and probably not one being seriously considered today anyway.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Vincent Velasquez struggled against the Braves in his last start and has now only exceeded six innings once this season with six or fewer strikeouts in each of his last five starts and only that many once. He could probably make it to the end of Tier Four below on FanDuel, but struggles to compare to similarly priced pitchers for just under $10K on DraftKings.
Dallas Keuchel is more easily skipped today do to the abundance of talent on the board. While we can forgive him for cratering against the mighty Red Sox, it was incredibly ugly coming off his best start of the season against Seattle. I’d like to see another strong one before going back to him and think we could get that here, but lose little by waiting today, although his cost on DraftKings ($7.1K) makes it more borderline.
Wei-Yin Chen struck out 12 of 27 Brewers in his last start after striking out ZERO of 25 Phillies in previous one. The Phillies are generally awful against LHP, but he has HR issues in small parks and is generally going to do the opposite of whatever I think anyway, otherwise I’d have less of an issue keeping him play tonight as he’s the last of three very borderline pitchers in this section today.
Chris Archer is another one of those normally difficult decisions referred to in the open today, which we can more easily pass on tonight. Instead of improving upon his control issues in April, he’s now missing fewer bats too.
Chad Bettis is outside of Coors, where Colorado pitchers have impressed this year, but faces one of the top offenses vs RHP.
Rick Porcello has consistently allowed exactly three runs in six to seven innings in four of his last six starts, but none in the other two. He’s gone at least seven innings in every start, but still seems to have a bit of a HR problem, though he has allowed just one over his last four starts, so maybe he’s starting to figure that out. His BABIP is 61 points below his career rate, while his LOB% is 11 points above, though it’s not as apparent in his non-FIP ERA estimators because of the high HR rate. I’m also not buying his K% at all. His SwStr% is right at his career rate and hasn’t gone above 6.1% in any of his last three starts, in which his 19% strikeout rate has been just below average. I’ll buy that he might be an improved pitcher, but his cost tonight, against a low strikeout team, is excessive, though less excessive on DK for some reason after being rained out last night.
Wade Miley is going to find himself in a good spot with projected under-ownership sooner or later. I like the SwStr%.
Mike Pelfrey does have the second highest SwStr% of his career and has been above 12% in two of his last three starts with 29 ground balls to 12 fly balls over that period. I’m already testing your patience with Pineda and obviously not recommending him, but might not be as fast to stack against him facing his previous team tonight.
Yordano Ventura can’t find the plate (-1.2 K-BB% this season), has struck out a total of five over his last three starts and faces the Boston Maulers.
Aaron Blair has a –4.8 K-BB%, which is one of the worst marks I can remember seeing after more than one or two starts since I started doing this.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | Braves | L2 Years | 8.4% | 13.3% | Road | 14.3% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 7.3% | 14.6% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 22.9% | 11.1% | Home | 24.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 8.6% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.4% | 7.5% | Road | 18.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 3.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.7% | 7.3% | Home | 18.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 6.7% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 26.3% | 8.5% | Road | 24.9% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 12.5% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 33.2% | 4.3% | Home | 36.8% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 41.1% | 1.8% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 24.4% | 7.2% | Road | 23.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 3.9% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | L2 Years | 17.9% | 9.3% | Home | 18.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 9.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 20.7% | 6.4% | Road | 18.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 18.1% | 10.8% |
| Eric Surkamp | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.3% | 11.9% | Home | 12.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | L2 Years | 21.3% | 6.0% | Home | 24.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 2.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 15.9% | 6.0% | Road | 9.2% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 18.1% | 2.8% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.2% | 10.1% | Home | 25.6% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 6.4% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 20.4% | 5.4% | Road | 20.5% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 6.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 26.3% | 4.9% | Road | 23.8% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 8.8% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.1% | 5.8% | Home | 16.8% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 7.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.2% | 5.3% | Road | 31.4% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 46.6% | 5.2% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.8% | 3.6% | Road | 21.9% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 9.4% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 12.1% | 7.1% | Home | 13.1% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 4.6% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.2% | 5.1% | Home | 28.6% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 18.1% | 2.3% | Road | 14.3% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 6.5% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.6% | 5.2% | Road | 19.8% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 7.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.1% | 10.8% | Home | 21.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 8.3% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.6% | 8.5% | Home | 29.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 6.1% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.9% | Road | 16.6% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 6.4% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.0% | 4.9% | Road | 19.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 19.9% | 9.6% | Home | 24.5% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 16.3% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.4% | 5.0% | Home | 21.8% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 7.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 18.4% | 10.7% | RH | 18.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.5% |
| Astros | Road | 26.2% | 9.1% | LH | 26.0% | 12.0% | L7Days | 25.7% | 11.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.5% | 8.0% | RH | 19.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 15.6% | 7.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 18.7% | 11.9% | RH | 19.6% | 12.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 11.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 23.2% | 9.8% | RH | 23.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 17.0% | 7.9% |
| Angels | Road | 14.6% | 8.2% | LH | 13.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.6% | 7.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 16.8% | 6.7% | LH | 17.7% | 3.9% | L7Days | 17.4% | 5.0% |
| Giants | Road | 16.2% | 9.4% | RH | 15.8% | 11.5% | L7Days | 16.7% | 10.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 18.6% | 12.1% | LH | 22.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 19.9% | 6.2% | LH | 20.0% | 5.3% | L7Days | 16.7% | 9.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.8% | 6.4% | LH | 25.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.9% | 8.1% | RH | 21.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 6.4% |
| Braves | Road | 21.8% | 7.4% | RH | 19.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 5.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.3% | 10.7% | RH | 26.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 27.8% | 12.9% |
| Padres | Home | 23.5% | 7.0% | LH | 25.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.4% |
| Rays | Road | 26.5% | 8.6% | RH | 26.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.0% | 11.0% |
| Mets | Home | 21.4% | 10.2% | RH | 21.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 28.5% | 6.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.9% | 7.6% | RH | 20.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.5% |
| Twins | Road | 27.5% | 8.2% | RH | 23.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.8% | 8.4% | RH | 20.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 14.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 23.9% | 9.2% | RH | 24.3% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.4% | 8.2% |
| Royals | Home | 18.6% | 6.6% | RH | 19.2% | 6.2% | L7Days | 18.2% | 5.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.3% | 7.2% | RH | 20.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.5% | 8.3% | RH | 18.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.2% | 9.2% | LH | 21.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.0% | 7.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.3% | 8.6% | LH | 23.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 21.0% | 7.1% | RH | 18.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 14.1% | 8.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.2% | 7.3% | RH | 18.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 16.8% | 8.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | Braves | L2 Years | 21.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2016 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | Road | 26.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 11.1% | 6.3% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.4% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 2016 | 28.6% | 17.1% | 10.1% | Home | 28.2% | 12.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.9% | 11.8% | 16.0% | 2016 | 32.5% | 14.3% | 14.0% | Road | 30.2% | 12.2% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 39.0% | 11.1% | 29.2% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.3% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 2016 | 37.2% | 20.0% | 22.3% | Home | 28.2% | 11.2% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 20.0% | 32.4% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 32.8% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 2016 | 37.0% | 23.5% | 18.5% | Road | 32.8% | 14.7% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 16.7% | -19.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.4% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 2016 | 28.7% | 7.3% | 11.9% | Home | 24.9% | 7.2% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 26.4% | 11.3% | 4.4% | 2016 | 21.4% | 21.4% | -8.1% | Road | 26.1% | 7.7% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 25.0% | 6.4% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | L2 Years | 30.9% | 9.2% | 17.0% | 2016 | 26.6% | 10.8% | 8.6% | Home | 33.8% | 5.1% | 20.8% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 6.7% | 22.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.1% | 12.0% | -1.7% | 2016 | 31.2% | 15.2% | 7.6% | Road | 27.6% | 16.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 32.2% | 28.6% | 3.4% |
| Eric Surkamp | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.1% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 2016 | 31.0% | 11.4% | 9.6% | Home | 25.9% | 20.0% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 20.0% | 22.2% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.7% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 2016 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 0.9% | Home | 25.2% | 6.3% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 16.7% | -8.6% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 28.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 2016 | 35.8% | 12.7% | 22.7% | Road | 33.0% | 10.8% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 19.0% | 24.5% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 24.1% | 12.7% | 5.0% | 2016 | 17.3% | 13.5% | -8.7% | Home | 19.2% | 6.0% | -2.0% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 16.7% | -8.6% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 2016 | 24.5% | 5.3% | 1.0% | Road | 25.3% | 11.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 2016 | 33.6% | 9.3% | 12.7% | Road | 30.4% | 12.5% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 16.6% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 23.8% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2016 | 26.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | Home | 23.0% | 0.0% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 10.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.3% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 2016 | 29.0% | 20.4% | 3.0% | Road | 27.7% | 12.3% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 40.0% | 7.1% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.5% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 2016 | 30.0% | 21.4% | 14.2% | Road | 31.5% | 7.5% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 28.1% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 2016 | 37.2% | 17.6% | 21.7% | Home | 27.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 30.0% | 8.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 25.0% | 13.5% | 5.4% | 2016 | 26.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | Home | 22.3% | 13.3% | -2.6% | L14 Days | 32.5% | 15.4% | 27.5% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 30.0% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 2016 | 35.8% | 15.2% | 18.7% | Road | 29.1% | 14.5% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 2016 | 28.6% | 14.3% | 13.5% | Road | 32.6% | 16.2% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 8.3% | 11.9% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 27.5% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 2016 | 29.9% | 15.6% | 11.0% | Home | 27.7% | 12.2% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 8.3% | -6.3% |
| Vincent Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 25.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2016 | 22.2% | 6.8% | -1.0% | Home | 26.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 7.7% | 5.6% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 27.8% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 2016 | 28.2% | 17.8% | 7.5% | Road | 23.7% | 10.8% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 40.0% | 21.2% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.3% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 2016 | 34.1% | 11.6% | 18.9% | Road | 27.9% | 10.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 7.1% | 16.2% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 27.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 2016 | 26.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | Home | 32.2% | 6.2% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 9.1% | -2.7% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 26.7% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 2016 | 28.4% | 12.8% | 7.4% | Home | 28.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 20.0% | 11.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 25.6% | 11.1% | 5.1% | RH | 27.0% | 10.6% | 5.7% | L7Days | 18.0% | 15.6% | -3.3% |
| Astros | Road | 32.5% | 15.6% | 13.3% | LH | 30.6% | 11.5% | 11.7% | L7Days | 33.7% | 12.1% | 18.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.5% | 14.5% | 16.4% | RH | 33.2% | 16.1% | 15.2% | L7Days | 29.4% | 14.5% | 10.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 30.9% | 13.8% | 14.6% | RH | 30.7% | 11.1% | 12.9% | L7Days | 27.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 35.7% | 11.2% | 19.3% | RH | 32.4% | 12.5% | 15.0% | L7Days | 31.7% | 10.0% | 11.3% |
| Angels | Road | 26.4% | 8.7% | 2.3% | LH | 24.3% | 10.7% | 1.8% | L7Days | 33.8% | 12.3% | 16.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | LH | 25.4% | 12.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 29.9% | 13.8% | 7.1% |
| Giants | Road | 32.6% | 12.9% | 12.2% | RH | 31.2% | 10.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 31.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 27.4% | 10.9% | 4.0% | LH | 30.4% | 10.3% | 11.5% | L7Days | 31.2% | 12.8% | 15.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 28.7% | 10.5% | 9.3% | LH | 27.8% | 10.7% | 5.6% | L7Days | 25.2% | 10.6% | 5.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 32.7% | 16.0% | 13.5% | LH | 35.1% | 23.0% | 13.6% | L7Days | 35.5% | 9.1% | 15.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 30.1% | 13.6% | 11.2% | RH | 32.3% | 9.8% | 14.9% | L7Days | 35.6% | 21.1% | 21.8% |
| Braves | Road | 22.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | RH | 24.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | L7Days | 22.6% | 6.8% | 1.5% |
| Brewers | Home | 36.0% | 16.9% | 20.1% | RH | 31.0% | 17.2% | 13.0% | L7Days | 35.7% | 8.6% | 14.0% |
| Padres | Home | 27.3% | 9.0% | 12.4% | LH | 32.7% | 13.9% | 19.4% | L7Days | 37.2% | 14.9% | 22.3% |
| Rays | Road | 36.3% | 18.8% | 19.5% | RH | 34.4% | 15.4% | 14.2% | L7Days | 34.2% | 23.2% | 15.8% |
| Mets | Home | 31.8% | 11.3% | 9.4% | RH | 35.1% | 15.2% | 18.8% | L7Days | 28.5% | 10.3% | 13.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 36.5% | 16.2% | 19.2% | RH | 33.3% | 12.4% | 14.3% | L7Days | 44.2% | 5.9% | 29.1% |
| Twins | Road | 29.6% | 12.2% | 11.1% | RH | 31.4% | 11.4% | 13.6% | L7Days | 34.8% | 16.9% | 15.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 34.5% | 14.8% | 18.2% | RH | 32.0% | 12.1% | 15.3% | L7Days | 31.4% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 34.5% | 11.5% | 17.6% | RH | 32.9% | 13.5% | 15.2% | L7Days | 30.8% | 15.9% | 6.6% |
| Royals | Home | 28.8% | 8.6% | 5.4% | RH | 28.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 27.8% | 12.7% | 5.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 30.5% | 16.9% | 12.5% | RH | 29.5% | 14.4% | 11.4% | L7Days | 27.3% | 15.9% | 6.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 28.7% | 12.7% | 4.5% | RH | 27.6% | 11.7% | 3.9% | L7Days | 32.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.9% | 16.3% | 9.4% | LH | 32.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 38.0% | 20.3% | 23.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 19.1% | 6.3% | -1.9% | LH | 26.1% | 8.3% | 3.9% | L7Days | 23.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 30.2% | 12.9% | 9.1% | RH | 33.2% | 12.5% | 15.0% | L7Days | 37.0% | 19.0% | 14.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 27.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | RH | 24.9% | 13.9% | 6.2% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.3% | -1.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 8.4% | 6.9% | 1.22 | 8.4% | 6.9% | 1.22 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 22.7% | 8.1% | 2.80 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 3.12 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 18.4% | 8.5% | 2.16 | 18.3% | 7.7% | 2.38 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 16.8% | 6.9% | 2.43 | 15.0% | 6.7% | 2.24 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 27.8% | 11.2% | 2.48 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.49 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 34.2% | 15.4% | 2.22 | 39.0% | 17.3% | 2.25 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 25.3% | 13.6% | 1.86 | 28.2% | 12.2% | 2.31 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 16.7% | 6.7% | 2.49 | 15.8% | 6.3% | 2.51 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 19.0% | 10.4% | 1.83 | 18.3% | 12.2% | 1.50 |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | 10.6% | 6.3% | 1.68 | 13.2% | 7.1% | 1.86 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 26.8% | 11.4% | 2.35 | 23.6% | 11.9% | 1.98 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 14.0% | 9.0% | 1.56 | 13.6% | 8.3% | 1.64 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 23.6% | 7.6% | 3.11 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 2.68 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 21.8% | 8.2% | 2.66 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.72 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 28.0% | 10.2% | 2.75 | 28.3% | 10.1% | 2.80 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 18.2% | 8.3% | 2.19 | 20.9% | 8.9% | 2.35 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 31.0% | 14.5% | 2.14 | 32.7% | 15.2% | 2.15 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 23.2% | 13.2% | 1.76 | 23.4% | 12.9% | 1.81 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 12.1% | 8.8% | 1.38 | 11.6% | 9.1% | 1.27 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 30.2% | 15.3% | 1.97 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.93 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 16.6% | 6.0% | 2.77 | 13.9% | 4.9% | 2.84 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 24.9% | 7.5% | 3.32 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 3.03 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 19.9% | 8.0% | 2.49 | 17.0% | 7.9% | 2.15 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 28.7% | 11.5% | 2.50 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 2.36 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 19.0% | 10.8% | 1.76 | 15.6% | 10.0% | 1.56 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 20.3% | 7.8% | 2.60 | 20.6% | 7.5% | 2.75 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 15.4% | 8.4% | 1.83 | 11.5% | 7.0% | 1.64 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 20.2% | 11.4% | 1.77 | 21.0% | 11.4% | 1.84 |
Juan Nicasio has elite framing catchers and at least an 8.8 SwStr% in each of his last three starts, so although there’s concern, there’s also optimism he can maintain an above average K% if more recent outings are telling.
Madison Bumgarner has a SwStr% right at his career rate, though a full point or worse than each of the last three seasons in which his K% was lower. In fact, this is a career high K% that I don’t expect to last, even though he’s improved each of the last three years. Perhaps with his velocity returning, he can regain some of those lost swings and misses, but I think we have to expect something around his career 24.0 K% until that happens.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 4.05 | 6.46 | 2.41 | 5.83 | 1.78 | 4.67 | 0.62 | 4.05 | 6.46 | 2.41 | 5.83 | 1.78 | 4.67 | 0.62 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 4.99 | 3.85 | -1.14 | 3.73 | -1.26 | 4.31 | -0.68 | 6.75 | 3.75 | -3 | 3.74 | -3.01 | 4.65 | -2.1 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 4.56 | 3.8 | -0.76 | 3.6 | -0.96 | 3.84 | -0.72 | 5.52 | 3.36 | -2.16 | 3.18 | -2.34 | 3.69 | -1.83 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 6.11 | 4.63 | -1.48 | 4.65 | -1.46 | 5.96 | -0.15 | 8.88 | 4.97 | -3.91 | 5.08 | -3.8 | 7.76 | -1.12 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 4.57 | 3.6 | -0.97 | 3.27 | -1.3 | 4.44 | -0.13 | 3.86 | 3.81 | -0.05 | 3.49 | -0.37 | 3.65 | -0.21 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 1.74 | 1.95 | 0.21 | 1.87 | 0.13 | 1.46 | -0.28 | 1.8 | 1.43 | -0.37 | 1.23 | -0.57 | 0.77 | -1.03 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 2.95 | 3.57 | 0.62 | 3.47 | 0.52 | 4.27 | 1.32 | 2.96 | 3.22 | 0.26 | 3.14 | 0.18 | 3.77 | 0.81 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 4.24 | 4.71 | 0.47 | 4.66 | 0.42 | 4.51 | 0.27 | 3.72 | 4.66 | 0.94 | 4.66 | 0.94 | 4.04 | 0.32 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 5.58 | 4.07 | -1.51 | 3.75 | -1.83 | 4.01 | -1.57 | 7.98 | 3.86 | -4.12 | 3.67 | -4.31 | 4.71 | -3.27 |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | 6.55 | 6.21 | -0.34 | 6.8 | 0.25 | 6.67 | 0.12 | 8.31 | 5.97 | -2.34 | 6.53 | -1.78 | 7 | -1.31 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 2.58 | 3.05 | 0.47 | 2.85 | 0.27 | 2.59 | 0.01 | 2.67 | 3.37 | 0.7 | 3.18 | 0.51 | 3.21 | 0.54 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 6.1 | 5.02 | -1.08 | 5.26 | -0.84 | 5.4 | -0.7 | 6.96 | 5.07 | -1.89 | 5.25 | -1.71 | 5.49 | -1.47 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 4.34 | 3.98 | -0.36 | 3.93 | -0.41 | 4.12 | -0.22 | 4.13 | 3.98 | -0.15 | 3.9 | -0.23 | 3.78 | -0.35 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.03 | 2.99 | -0.04 | 2.93 | -0.1 | 2.46 | -0.57 | 2.74 | 3.23 | 0.49 | 3.32 | 0.58 | 2.86 | 0.12 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.72 | 3.38 | 0.66 | 3.57 | 0.85 | 3.18 | 0.46 | 1.87 | 3.29 | 1.42 | 3.41 | 1.54 | 2.21 | 0.34 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.54 | 3.61 | 0.07 | 3.59 | 0.05 | 3.4 | -0.14 | 3.12 | 3.44 | 0.32 | 3.4 | 0.28 | 3.31 | 0.19 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 4.15 | 2.92 | -1.23 | 3.09 | -1.06 | 4.21 | 0.06 | 4.15 | 2.68 | -1.47 | 2.89 | -1.26 | 4.2 | 0.05 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 6.28 | 3.72 | -2.56 | 3.9 | -2.38 | 5.22 | -1.06 | 6.18 | 3.75 | -2.43 | 3.91 | -2.27 | 5.03 | -1.15 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 5.8 | 5.15 | -0.65 | 4.88 | -0.92 | 5.57 | -0.23 | 6.92 | 5.04 | -1.88 | 4.78 | -2.14 | 5.65 | -1.27 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.53 | 2.48 | -0.05 | 2.36 | -0.17 | 2.19 | -0.34 | 3.24 | 2.96 | -0.28 | 2.89 | -0.35 | 2.92 | -0.32 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 6.44 | 4.3 | -2.14 | 4.29 | -2.15 | 4.81 | -1.63 | 7.5 | 4.94 | -2.56 | 5.05 | -2.45 | 5.53 | -1.97 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.11 | 3.29 | 0.18 | 3.35 | 0.24 | 3.61 | 0.5 | 2.38 | 3.55 | 1.17 | 3.52 | 1.14 | 2.81 | 0.43 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 4.87 | 4.26 | -0.61 | 4.11 | -0.76 | 4.48 | -0.39 | 5.34 | 4.8 | -0.54 | 4.78 | -0.56 | 5.17 | -0.17 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 2.7 | 3.21 | 0.51 | 3.38 | 0.68 | 2.68 | -0.02 | 4.13 | 4.24 | 0.11 | 4.32 | 0.19 | 3.92 | -0.21 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 4.91 | 3.87 | -1.04 | 3.82 | -1.09 | 4.57 | -0.34 | 3.66 | 4.39 | 0.73 | 4.33 | 0.67 | 5.2 | 1.54 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 4.4 | 3.74 | -0.66 | 3.6 | -0.8 | 3.54 | -0.86 | 3.98 | 3.86 | -0.12 | 3.76 | -0.22 | 3.77 | -0.21 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.62 | 6 | 1.38 | 5.93 | 1.31 | 5.43 | 0.81 | 5.54 | 6.33 | 0.79 | 6.36 | 0.82 | 5.81 | 0.27 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 5.26 | 3.72 | -1.54 | 3.51 | -1.75 | 3.6 | -1.66 | 4.45 | 3.47 | -0.98 | 3.1 | -1.35 | 3.14 | -1.31 |
Cole Hamels has some regression in an 84.7 LOB%, but also a 21.4 HR/FB.
Madison Bumgarner has nearly doubled his walk rate, but has walked more than two just twice since his first start, so I’m not too concerned about that, but think we should also account for a reduced K% explained just above, allowing him to retain his nearly 20.0 K-BB% with potentially similar ERA estimators. His 9.3 HR/FB is exactly his career rate, so the FIP looks reliable.
Max Scherzer – This is purely a 20.4 HR/FB that matches his ERA with his FIP. The good news is he has a 10.3 career HR/FB, which he matches last season, but the bad news is that it’s been above 17% since after the All Star break last season and he’s a fly ball pitcher who has twice allowed more than 25 bombs in a season, including last year.
Michael Pineda has a 21.4 HR/FB, but that’s even a 50% increase over last year’s 14.7 HR/FB and seven of his nine HRs came in two starts. He’s going to have trouble in Yankee Stadium and isn’t in a great park tonight, but it plays a bit better for HRs at least. The BABIP has a ways to go and I could never really project him for a low one, but it should improve at least 30 to 40 points at worst.
Zack Greinke has a .359 BABIP and 68.6 LOB%. Confining that to his home starts, those numbers become .374 and 64.2%, while adding an 18.8 HR/FB. Those numbers should improve, but it’s questionable how much in his current surroundings.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Blair | ATL | 0.293 | 0.281 | -0.012 | 0.25 | 17.4% | 89.3% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.276 | 0.336 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 11.4% | 87.6% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.316 | 0.298 | -0.018 | 0.237 | 2.4% | 83.8% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.311 | 0.321 | 0.01 | 0.198 | 4.4% | 85.6% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.271 | 0.342 | 0.071 | 0.254 | 11.8% | 85.8% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.273 | 0.271 | -0.002 | 0.218 | 12.2% | 80.9% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.286 | 0.292 | 0.006 | 0.218 | 7.1% | 79.4% |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 0.304 | 0.290 | -0.014 | 0.246 | 18.9% | 90.9% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.314 | 0.349 | 0.035 | 0.208 | 15.2% | 84.4% |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | 0.300 | 0.313 | 0.013 | 0.298 | 14.3% | 90.8% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.280 | 0.230 | -0.05 | 0.191 | 4.2% | 85.1% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.289 | 0.341 | 0.052 | 0.272 | 12.7% | 82.8% |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 0.295 | 0.273 | -0.022 | 0.218 | 10.8% | 85.6% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.252 | 0.277 | 0.025 | 0.186 | 15.8% | 90.1% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.322 | 0.318 | -0.004 | 0.214 | 18.5% | 82.8% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.282 | 0.256 | -0.026 | 0.138 | 5.0% | 91.8% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.284 | 0.292 | 0.008 | 0.198 | 16.7% | 77.4% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.313 | 0.360 | 0.047 | 0.21 | 0.0% | 84.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 0.313 | 0.350 | 0.037 | 0.227 | 8.8% | 86.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.317 | 0.316 | -0.001 | 0.174 | 3.3% | 83.1% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.321 | 0.319 | -0.002 | 0.205 | 8.7% | 88.8% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.304 | 0.250 | -0.054 | 0.189 | 4.8% | 86.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.299 | 0.369 | 0.07 | 0.2 | 6.3% | 84.6% |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | 0.285 | 0.257 | -0.028 | 0.189 | 18.2% | 81.3% |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 0.279 | 0.299 | 0.02 | 0.188 | 8.9% | 85.6% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 0.305 | 0.323 | 0.018 | 0.215 | 4.7% | 89.7% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.289 | 0.236 | -0.053 | 0.133 | 8.9% | 87.8% |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.307 | 0.359 | 0.052 | 0.233 | 8.5% | 92.6% |
Jaime Garcia has a .230 BABIP with great indicators, but a 60.0 GB% with a 0.9 Hard-Soft% means lots of weak ground balls and while the St Louis defense rates very poorly via UZR standards, they’ve done well by BABIP suppression.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The price discrepancies aren’t as large overall as they have been the last week with less than half of tonight’s pitchers having more than a $1K gap and only four a gap of more than $1.2K between the two major sites. There is one whopping one of $3.1K in “(player-popup)Marcus Stroman”:/players/marcus-stroman-16408’s cost. Today’s board overall is looking tremendous as well. Consider that the top valued pitchers yesterday would be lucky to crack the back end of Teir Three today. Of course, this probably means we’re in for another rough couple of days towards the end of the week, but let’s just enjoy tonight for now.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (2) projects for the top strikeout rate tonight, but of course the numbers are going to see it that way after recent results. I’d value him behind Kershaw and nearly even with Garcia for $12.7K on DraftKings, but he gets a bump to the top on FanDuel for just more than $2K less, although I rarely account for what might be a difficult and arbitrary pitcher Win going against Syndergaard tonight. He could strike out 10+, but HR potential may be high enough to cost him the game, where any mistake could prove costly.
Clayton Kershaw (1) is putting together one of the greatest 30 day periods in the history of baseball, but because he hasn’t thrown a no-hitter or have a scoreless streak going and everyone expects him to be great, it’s not getting a ton of mainstream recognition. He’s struck out at least 10 in each of his last five starts and is the rare pitcher who occasionally finishes what he starts still.
Value Tier Two
Jaime Garcia (5t) has appears to be in a rhythm and generally pitches very well at home. He has a top two ground ball rate with a lot of weak contact and a high strikeout rate. His biggest question appears to be one of control and he’s walked just one over his last two starts. The Rockies haven’t been as much of a cakewalk on the road, but still probably have their weaknesses against LHP and aren’t a matchup to be feared in St Louis. This is the best pitcher available for less than $10K on both sites.
Noah Syndergaard (3) – What do you do if you have possibly the most dominant pitcher in the majors through April? You f*** with his approach if you’re the Mets! His SwStr% has dipped below 10 in two of his last four starts, but never below 9.4 and he’s in a strong spot at home tonight (although a tough matchup if you’re looking for Wins). He bumps to first tier if you can find a site that includes his offensive power prowess.
Value Tier Three
Cole Hamels (4) – This may be the first time he’s made the hit list this season, but he seems to be pitching better and is in a decent spot tonight. I still don’t trust him enough to put him much higher and probably only want to use him to diversify a multi-lineup GPP portfolio.
Kyle Hendricks generates so many ground balls that I’m not really concerned about the park or power of the Brewers. He’s allowed just 19 fly balls all season (one HR). What does concern me and prevents him from being higher despite being very similar to Garcia is his ability to go deep into games. Joe Maddon is quick with the hook at the back end of his rotation (although I’m not sure he should be considered such), but he has a decent chance of getting through at least six.
Michael Pineda – I do not expect anyone to take this one very seriously and maybe that’s the point. He’s had terrible results and the Arizona offense exploded at home, but we were talking about how awful they were in the comments of yesterday’s article. The SwStr% is the best of his career and even the batted ball profile has improved greatly over his last two starts, while the issue was very uncharacteristically walks in his last start. That is something that is a bit concerning as he’s throwing fewer strikes, but not with less velocity. I’m not going to have a lot of exposure, but could pair him with an elite pitcher at low ownership in 10-20% of my GPP lineups. I still believe there’s at least an average pitcher, if not better, in there somewhere.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Juan Nicasio is a flawed pitcher, especially against LHBs and that concerns me a little here at a higher than expected cost, but we’re not about to give up on the Braves yet, though he’s a tougher sell on FanDuel for over $8K.
Marcus Stroman become viable with a higher strikeout rate and an opponent that should further increase that rate tonight alongside the top ground ball rate in the majors even if it’s not a great overall spot in a tough home park. However, $11K on DraftKings is a bit excessive. No, it’s really excessive. He’s just $7.9K and a lot more viable on FanDuel.
Zack Greinke – It’s odd that he remains just barely in play due more to the shortcomings of his opponents than his own merit, but that’s just the situation we find tonight. He’s been bad in nearly every home start, but faces a struggling and DH-less Yankees lineup for well under $10K on DraftKings now.
Madison Bumgarner (5t) – My basic argument in having him this low here is almost entirely based on cost. He’s one of only two pitchers priced about $12K on FanDuel and one of three on DraftKings and while he projects to strike out around a quarter of the batters he faces tonight, about one-third of the board projects the same tonight and while he’s a stud, he’s not Kershaw and might not have Scherzer’s upside either. In fact, I’d grade several lower priced pitchers similarly or higher.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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