Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, October 2nd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-10-03 14:55:41

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Nicolino	MIA	PHI	67	4.16	5.66	1.28		7.7%	7.3%	0.94	1.20
Harang	PHI	MIA	371	4.15	4.47	1.39	75.0%	16.7%	7.6%	0.97	0.93
Sampson	CIN	PIT	47.1	6.46	5.09	1.86		15.3%	10.5%	1.14	1.10
Liriano	PIT	CIN	344	3.32	3.51	1.25	12.5%	26.0%	10.5%	0.71	1.96
Severino	NYY	BAL	55.1	2.77	4.02	1.27		21.8%	9.6%	1.14	1.63
Chen	BAL	NYY	371	3.44	3.89	1.22	31.6%	18.6%	4.7%	1.24	1.06
Owens	BOS	CLE	58.2	3.84	4.54	1.23		18.7%	8.1%	1.07	0.72
Tomlin	CLE	BOS	163.1	4.13	3.32	1.11	23.1%	21.7%	3.0%	1.65	0.93
Gonzalez	WAS	NYM	328.1	3.76	3.64	1.32	46.7%	23.3%	8.8%	0.49	1.61
Syndergaard	NYM	WAS	143	3.34	3.01	1.08		27.0%	5.2%	1.13	1.38
Buehrle	TOR	TBR	393.1	3.57	4.48	1.29	60.0%	12.6%	4.7%	0.80	1.37
Ramirez	TBR	TOR	233.1	4.17	4.12	1.24	27.3%	18.7%	7.5%	1.12	1.24
Garcia	STL	ATL	169.1	2.82	3.21	1.03	28.6%	19.7%	5.3%	0.58	2.71
Teheran	ATL	STL	415.2	3.49	3.95	1.19	70.0%	20.6%	7.2%	1.06	0.92
Weaver	LAA	TEX	366.1	4.08	4.44	1.23	52.4%	16.8%	6.2%	1.23	0.71
Perez	TEX	LAA	123	4.61	4.09	1.43	37.5%	15.2%	8.1%	0.44	2.59
Simon	DET	CHW	375.1	4.27	4.52	1.33	63.2%	15.1%	7.7%	1.10	1.39
Sale	CHW	DET	375.2	2.87	2.54	1.04	64.3%	31.4%	5.3%	0.84	1.09
Young	KCR	MIN	282	3.45	5.24	1.17	47.4%	16.0%	8.7%	1.34	0.39
Santana	MIN	KCR	297	4.00	3.88	1.31	38.9%	20.7%	7.7%	0.85	1.23
Arrieta	CHC	MIL	379.2	2.11	2.82	0.92	50.0%	27.1%	6.1%	0.36	2.09
Pena	MIL	CHC	23	3.91	4.57	1.35		21.2%	12.1%	0.39	0.92
Keuchel	HOU	ARI	426	2.68	2.93	1.09	50.0%	21.2%	5.7%	0.57	3.27
De La Rosa	ARI	HOU	287.1	4.51	4.17	1.38	57.1%	17.9%	7.6%	1.35	1.48
Kelly	SDP	LAD
Wood	LAD	SDP	354.1	3.35	3.71	1.26	58.3%	20.8%	7.0%	0.79	1.54
Brooks	OAK	SEA	51	9.18	4.32	1.84		15.9%	6.1%	1.59	1.29
Iwakuma	SEA	OAK	301.2	3.58	3.14	1.05	60.0%	21.5%	3.5%	1.13	1.69
Kendrick	COL	SFG	335.1	5.39	4.75	1.44	30.0%	13.3%	6.9%	1.56	1.14
Heston	SFG	COL	179.1	3.66	4.08	1.30		18.9%	8.8%	0.70	2.08

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jake Arrieta CHC (at MIL) – Once thought to be a battle among Dodger arms, the NL Cy Young Award now appears to be Arrieta’s to lose. He is on an incredible run, with a 0.44 ERA over his last 11 starts – that’s not a typo – and just one homer allowed over his last 12 turns. He has 82 K’s and just 14 walks in his last 82.3 innings, a stretch in which all batters are hitting a pitcher-like .139/.188/.178 against the right-hander. He has thrown 7.0 or more innings in all five starts this month, four of which went 8.0 frames or more, and in his last two starts Arrieta has whiffed 20 batters against four hits and one walk in 16.0 innings. In other words, he just keeps getting better. He allows the Cubs to stand tall against any team in baseball, with the ability to dominate seemingly any lineup in the game, but we may have to wait until the World Series – and a potential matchup with the Blue Jays – to put that possibility to the test. Tonight’s game should be a cakewalk for Arrieta, particularly against a Milwaukee team that was gutted at the trade deadline and is finishing the season without injured outfielder Ryan Braun.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (at ARI) – Keuchel has taken his game to the next level this season. His 2014 breakout was surprising, but the developments that he has made in 2015 are nothing short of shocking. By midseason, strikeouts were the only thing missing from his statistical repertoire (114 K’s in 137.3 first-half innings), and he has addressed that particular issue with 99 punchouts in his 88.7 innings of the second half. He had a hiccup – or maybe it was a convulsion – against Texas a few turns ago, coughing up nine runs before he could escape the fifth inning, but that outing marked the only time in the last two months that Keuchel has given up more than three runs in a contest. The Diamondbacks present a formidable interleague task for Keuchel, challenging the right-hander to keep his ERA below 2.50 for the season (it currently stands at 2.47).

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. WAS) – Let’s run through the stats: a 3.34 ERA with 156 strikeouts, just 30 walks and only 124 hits allowed in 143.0 innings this season. That’s a K-to-walk ratio better than five-to-one, for those scoring at home, and a WHIP of just 1.077. Not bad for a rookie. He has hit a bit of a speed bump over the final two month of the season, and August was relatively brutal with a 4.79 ERA and nine homers allowed in 35.7 innings, but optimism is inspired by his last few starts after taking nearly two weeks off at the beginning of the month. Since his return, Synder has sandwiched two stellar starts around one that was more forgettable, but the total tally includes a solid 3.48 ERA with an impressive 27 strikeouts against just one walk in 20.3 innings. Kris Bryant is the only thing standing between Thor and the NL Rookie of the Year award.

Chris Sale CHW (vs. DET) – Sale’s recent struggles have been well-documented, and the Tigers have the pieces on offense to give the southpaw another long day, but there are a couple of reasons to take solace. First, Sale rebounded in his last outing to post a quality start (seven innings, three runs allowed) with eight strikeouts against the juggernaut offense of the Yankees; second, the Tigers have been limping to the finish line, with Miguel Cabrera power having been sapped for the past month. That said, Sale hasn’t allowed fewer than three runs in any one of his five September starts, and though he continues to pile up the innings (at least 7.0 frames in seven of his last nine starts), he has not totaled enough strikeouts to put him over 30 fantasy points on DraftKings in any game this month.

Jaime Garcia STL (at ATL) – Garcia has been a revelation for St. Louis this season, helping to spare a staff that has endured the loss of ace Adam Wainwright and the late-season implosion of Lance Lynn. Garcia’s 2.36 ERA and 1.019 WHIP has led to a 13-6 record for the Cardinals in his 19 starts this season, and they have won 10 of the last 11 games that he has started – despite three of those games involving four or more runs allowed. He had a rough ride through Cincy and Milwaukee in the middle of the month, but he took down both of those opponents at home in his last two starts with 15.0 frames of 1.20 ERA baseball, and he ends the regular season with a virtual vacation against the Braves and their team wOBA of .295 with a 673 OPS.

Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. CIN) – Liriano has had a horrendous second half of the season, but he has restored trust from the Pittsburgh faithful with three strong outings out of his last four, each involving six or more innings with two or fewer runs allowed and nine or more strikeouts (good for 27.75-to-24.45 points on DraftKings). He punched out ten Reds when he last faced them on September 8, with six shutout frames and just four baserunners allowed. He has kept the ball in the park this year, even as the ERA ballooned during the dog days, as Liriano has given up just five homers combined over his last 15 starts. The southpaw is very tough to hit, whether looking at his low frequency of homers or a hit rate that has stayed below 7.5 safeties per nine innings for each of his three seasons in Pittsburgh; his biggest enemy has been himself, as the only thing that can seemingly derail Liriano is a barrage of free passes.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Nicolino	0.334	3.86	0.328	4.25	0.258	0.690	0.263	4.86	0.262	87.91	7.7%
Harang	0.342	3.55	0.322	4.65	0.255	0.682	0.306	4.13	0.27	100.43	16.7%
Sampson	0.427	5.89	0.344	6.83	0.262	0.726	0.354	4.83	0.312	79.08	15.3%
Liriano	0.293	3.67	0.284	3.24	0.249	0.721	0.286	3.37	0.217	95.02	26.0%
Severino	0.331	2.15	0.279	3.46	0.252	0.743	0.275	4.23	0.233	93.40	21.8%
Chen	0.274	2.22	0.339	3.86	0.258	0.752	0.294	4.04	0.261	96.46	18.6%
Owens	0.378	6.52	0.283	3.31	0.265	0.732	0.265	4.30	0.233	95.10	18.7%
Tomlin	0.263	3.38	0.370	5.02	0.265	0.741	0.279	4.16	0.25	75.44	21.7%
Gonzalez	0.284	3.58	0.309	3.81	0.246	0.731	0.321	3.05	0.248	95.84	23.3%
Syndergaard	0.294	3.76	0.271	2.93	0.251	0.724	0.286	3.27	0.228	99.09	27.0%
Buehrle	0.330	3.74	0.319	3.51	0.259	0.757	0.300	3.89	0.276	92.95	12.6%
Ramirez	0.287	3.53	0.341	5.01	0.265	0.786	0.277	4.32	0.244	72.20	18.7%
Garcia	0.311	4.33	0.252	2.42	0.233	0.641	0.265	3.16	0.222	92.92	19.7%
Teheran	0.342	4.28	0.260	2.75	0.264	0.740	0.277	3.96	0.237	99.22	20.6%
Weaver	0.326	3.92	0.304	4.29	0.260	0.741	0.273	4.43	0.249	96.76	16.8%
Perez	0.280	5.20	0.344	4.44	0.236	0.672	0.328	3.58	0.282	90.10	15.2%
Simon	0.346	4.36	0.308	4.16	0.253	0.703	0.281	4.56	0.257	96.44	15.1%
Sale	0.230	1.49	0.280	3.17	0.284	0.811	0.305	2.64	0.219	106.80	31.4%
Young	0.340	3.49	0.264	3.40	0.244	0.699	0.226	4.86	0.217	73.08	16.0%
Santana	0.336	4.53	0.300	3.42	0.268	0.738	0.310	3.67	0.257	96.91	20.7%
Arrieta	0.226	1.73	0.242	2.45	0.259	0.717	0.259	2.34	0.192	101.44	27.1%
Pena	0.412	3.24	0.236	4.30	0.245	0.726	0.281	3.58	0.221	81.20	21.2%
Keuchel	0.234	2.60	0.281	2.71	0.262	0.736	0.282	3.01	0.23	105.13	21.2%
De La Rosa	0.386	5.94	0.292	3.16	0.246	0.738	0.300	4.60	0.268	93.84	17.9%
Kelly	0.256	0.00	0.480	15.75	0.246	0.737
Wood	0.265	2.26	0.319	3.71	0.240	0.675	0.307	3.51	0.254	83.39	20.8%
Brooks	0.388	9.13	0.446	9.21	0.241	0.718	0.395	5.08	0.351	0.00	15.9%
Iwakuma	0.307	3.40	0.262	3.75	0.251	0.709	0.277	3.52	0.239	91.57	21.5%
Kendrick	0.385	5.93	0.345	4.98	0.267	0.741	0.294	5.29	0.282	90.17	13.3%
Heston	0.353	4.66	0.276	2.80	0.270	0.775	0.297	3.89	0.249	85.67	18.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Luis Severino NYY (at BAL) – The Yankees entered the season with several question marks in their rotation, but they enter the playoffs with Masahiro Tanaka pitching his best baseball of the season, with a relatively healthy CC Sabathia, and with a dynamite rookie in Severino who has taken the league by storm. He has a 2.77 ERA in 10 starts this season and has given up more than three runs just one time in the majors this season, with the outlier coming against the league-best offense of Toronto. The K counts have been modest of late, with just five total punchouts over his last two turns (covering 12.0 innings) and having cracked five whiffs just once in five starts this month. The Orioles have a hefty offense but have often been without their rock for the past couple of weeks as Adam Jones battles a balky back, but Severino has seemingly faced nothing but top offenses since his call-up and he is unlikely to be intimidated by the task at hand.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. OAK) – The A’s are just playing out the string en route to the worst record in the American League, and though Oakland spent a good chunk of the year with a positive run differential, their meager 707 OPS on the season is a better indicator of their vulnerability to good pitching. Iwakuma has been lights out for the past two months, tossing 6.0 or more innings in nine of his past 11 starts and holding the opposition to three or fewer runs in 10 of those turns. The lone exception was actually against the A’s, as Iwakuma gave up seven tallies and eight baserunners in less than five full frames when he last faced the green-and-gold back on August 24, but his September performance (a 2.18 ERA included) should overshadow that one blip on the radar.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at NYM) – Gonzalez has been the Nats’ most consistent starter for the past few seasons, but 2015 was a roller coaster ride. What started as the worst season of his career took a turn for the better in July, only to revert during August, and September has been completely unpredictable. He has hit double-digit strikeouts twice this month – the only two such outings of his season – yet has failed to finish the sixth inning in each of his other three September starts. He has walked multiple batters in nine straight turns, and though his ERA of 2.89 this month is certainly solid, the fact that four of his five starts came against Atlanta, Miami, and Philadelphia (twice) effectively dips that performance in a vat of salt. The only time that he faced a top-half offense was two turns ago against the Orioles, in which he gave up four runs in 4.7 frames, and we could witness more of the same tonight against the Mets.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. STL) – This season has been a disaster for Teheran, but he is ending the campaign on a good note with five consecutive starts with two or fewer runs allowed. The strikeouts have been tame during that stretch, with 26 whiffs in 33.0 innings, and he has been saved by a .244 BAbip that has helped to mask the 15 walks that he has allowed during that stretch. He was on a similar run in August before he encountered the Yankees on August 30th, a game in which Teheran gave up eight runs in 4.3 innings of work, and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if the Cards gave him similar treatment in his final start of the season.

Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. BOS)

Alex Wood LAD (vs. SD)

Justin Nicolino MIA (at PHI)

Chris Heston SF (vs. COL)

Mark Buehrle TOR (at TB)

Wei-Yin Chen BAL (vs. NYY)

Henry Owens BOS (at CLE)

Jered Weaver LAA (at TEX)

Chris Young KC (at MIN)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. LAA)

Rubby de la Rosa ARI (vs. HOU)

Ervin Santana MIN (vs. KC)