Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, June 20th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-06-23 18:00:47

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Gausman	BAL	TOR	125.1	3.66	4.04	1.32	37.5%	19.1%	8.1%	0.65	1.13
Buehrle	TOR	BAL	287.1	3.57	4.40	1.33	60.0%	13.1%	5.2%	0.81	1.34
Lester	CHC	MIN	298.2	2.86	3.19	1.17	65.0%	24.0%	5.6%	0.75	1.25
May	MIN	CHC	113.1	5.72	3.87	1.47		20.5%	7.0%	1.03	0.94
Martinez	TEX	CHW	218.2	3.91	5.01	1.41	27.3%	13.2%	8.5%	0.99	0.84
Rodon	CHW	TEX	44.1	3.86	4.30	1.65		21.4%	12.4%	0.20	1.61
Lackey	STL	PHI	280.2	3.75	3.73	1.26	57.9%	19.2%	5.6%	0.96	1.27
Harang	PHI	STL	293.1	3.47	4.24	1.31	75.0%	18.0%	7.7%	0.74	0.93
Weaver	LAA	OAK	304.1	3.90	4.34	1.22	52.4%	16.9%	6.3%	1.27	0.73
Hahn	OAK	LAA	150.1	3.35	3.80	1.18	57.1%	18.8%	7.9%	0.42	2.07
Liriano	PIT	WAS	245	3.23	3.31	1.18	12.5%	27.0%	10.6%	0.73	2.09
Scherzer	WAS	PIT	313.2	2.78	2.83	1.09	60.0%	28.7%	6.1%	0.69	0.85
Syndergaard	NYM	ATL	40.2	3.76	2.91	1.25		26.0%	4.6%	0.89	1.39
Perez	ATL	NYM	39.1	2.29	4.28	1.40		18.7%	11.5%	0.46	2.26
Lohse	MIL	COL	278	4.37	4.07	1.22	50.0%	17.2%	5.4%	1.23	0.99
Bettis	COL	MIL	68	5.69	4.08	1.56		16.5%	7.4%	0.79	1.51
Koehler	MIA	CIN	270.1	3.83	4.25	1.29	52.6%	18.6%	8.9%	0.90	1.13
Desclafani	CIN	MIA	110.2	4.23	4.35	1.32	20.0%	16.7%	7.4%	0.65	1.03
Ramirez	TBR	CLE	134	4.90	4.30	1.40	27.3%	18.5%	9.4%	1.14	1.10
Kluber	CLE	TBR	332.1	2.76	2.62	1.11	57.1%	28.3%	5.1%	0.57	1.56
Porcello	BOS	KCR	286.1	3.96	3.90	1.25	55.6%	16.3%	5.1%	0.91	1.52
Volquez	KCR	BOS	271	3.06	4.19	1.21	50.0%	17.8%	8.8%	0.70	1.51
Simon	DET	NYY	273	3.20	4.19	1.19	63.2%	16.2%	7.1%	0.89	1.46
Eovaldi	NYY	DET	270	4.57	3.95	1.41	50.0%	16.4%	5.3%	0.73	1.46
Hudson	SFG	LAD	268.2	3.89	3.78	1.27	68.4%	14.2%	4.7%	0.80	2.22
Frias	LAD	SFG	86.2	4.88	3.64	1.41		16.4%	6.4%	0.73	2.28
Keuchel	HOU	SEA	301.1	2.63	3.07	1.10	50.0%	18.5%	6.2%	0.45	3.58
Walker	SEA	HOU	110	4.17	3.97	1.39		21.0%	9.2%	0.98	1.27
Ross	SDP	ARI	276.1	3.16	3.28	1.32	66.7%	24.3%	9.7%	0.52	2.83
Ray	ARI	SDP	53.1	4.89	4.66	1.46	33.3%	15.2%	7.8%	1.01	0.83

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Corey Kluber CLE (vs. TB) – It’s been a bit of an up-and-down season for Kluber in 2015. He was hit around a bit in the early-going, but the peripheral stats suggested a bit of bad luck, and then he went ahead and proved that everything was A-OK with a magnificent run through the second half of May, including 50 strikeouts and just two walks in a four-start stretch to close out the month. The K’s have evaporated in June, but the run prevention has stayed solid (if unspectacular) though his 6 strikeouts against 4 walks in his last two starts are thoroughly underwhelming. Odds are that he will split the bit between high and lows, but there’s an outside shot of another dominant outing against a Tampa club that has a .683 OPS and 21% strikeout rate against right-handers this season.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (at ATL) – Syndergaard has been a polarizing player in his first month of play in the majors, but his utter domination of the highest-scoring offense in the league may have endeared him to a much larger audience. He was rock solid in his first few starts, consistently pitching 6-to-7 innings with a half-dozen punchouts, but he started June with a couple of rough starts that included 20 hits and 11 runs allowed in 10 innings of work. After his first start included four free passes (including the first two batters he faced), Thor has essentially kept walks off of his stat sheet – in his next six starts, he walked just four batters across 35.3 innings. He has turned up the heat on his K count in his last few turns, twice notching double-digit K’s, and his 45-to-8 ratio of strikeouts to walks this season is even more ridiculous when giving him a mulligan for the first couple of batters he ever faced. The fastball is one the hardest in the majors, and he currently leads all MLB starters with an average velocity of 98.0 mph on the heater, off-set with a knee-buckling curve that he commands at will. The Blue Jays learned a tough lesson when facing their former prospect, and Syndergaard is not finished teaching.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (at SEA) – After a dominant run to start the season followed by a couple of hiccups in May, Keuchel has settled into the middle ground this month, allowing 2 or 3 runs in each of his last 3 turns with a 16-to-5 ratio of strikeouts to walks across 19.7 innings. Despite the false optimism inspired by his 11-K effort against the White Sox last month, Keuchel is a pitch-to-contact player who takes joy in his opportunities to contribute on defense. He draws the Mariners tonight, a team that has spent considerable resources in securing a powerful lineup yet struggle to score runs, and the struggles are likely to continue against a pitcher who has given up just 4 big flies in 101 innings this season.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Gausman	0.321	3.41	0.287	4.00	0.258	0.756	0.302	3.50	0.252	77.25	19.1%
Buehrle	0.332	3.91	0.326	3.45	0.267	0.723	0.306	3.90	0.279	95.00	13.1%
Lester	0.325	2.62	0.289	2.93	0.261	0.705	0.309	2.99	0.245	106.27	24.0%
May	0.341	4.27	0.357	7.29	0.240	0.707	0.346	3.81	0.288	0.00	20.5%
Martinez	0.336	3.89	0.344	3.93	0.245	0.667	0.288	4.68	0.265	87.79	13.2%
Rodon	0.286	5.52	0.347	3.03	0.244	0.707	0.359	3.21	0.274	82.00	21.4%
Lackey	0.320	3.39	0.308	4.10	0.231	0.621	0.302	3.63	0.259	96.84	19.2%
Harang	0.326	3.11	0.298	3.77	0.273	0.739	0.297	3.68	0.254	101.83	18.0%
Weaver	0.326	4.04	0.296	3.72	0.267	0.740	0.269	4.42	0.247	97.56	16.9%
Hahn	0.307	4.56	0.250	2.15	0.243	0.690	0.273	3.38	0.225	89.26	18.8%
Liriano	0.304	4.37	0.268	2.96	0.254	0.720	0.266	3.34	0.202	94.45	27.0%
Scherzer	0.292	3.13	0.257	2.34	0.259	0.702	0.302	2.60	0.223	108.28	28.7%
Syndergaard	0.277	3.72	0.342	3.80	0.267	0.717	0.342	2.90	0.264	98.29	26.0%
Perez	0.323	4.34	0.281	0.44	0.241	0.667	0.304	3.79	0.248	70.89	18.7%
Lohse	0.320	4.24	0.317	4.48	0.271	0.769	0.281	4.26	0.254	96.62	17.2%
Bettis	0.325	5.65	0.387	5.74	0.242	0.667	0.338	3.86	0.291	0.00	16.5%
Koehler	0.311	3.76	0.313	3.90	0.242	0.705	0.283	4.08	0.244	90.93	18.6%
Desclafani	0.330	4.62	0.294	3.75	0.256	0.670	0.295	3.65	0.255	67.35	16.7%
Ramirez	0.315	4.13	0.359	5.93	0.249	0.721	0.297	4.70	0.258	0.00	18.5%
Kluber	0.316	2.86	0.244	2.66	0.241	0.678	0.324	2.38	0.238	102.69	28.3%
Porcello	0.325	3.66	0.304	4.33	0.272	0.733	0.300	3.80	0.266	96.33	16.3%
Volquez	0.299	3.15	0.288	2.97	0.259	0.717	0.262	3.95	0.225	93.69	17.8%
Simon	0.312	3.66	0.285	2.67	0.256	0.740	0.265	4.09	0.237	95.77	16.2%
Eovaldi	0.361	4.75	0.303	4.39	0.274	0.742	0.336	3.55	0.29	95.54	16.4%
Hudson	0.332	3.66	0.304	4.09	0.259	0.788	0.302	3.82	0.272	89.75	14.2%
Frias	0.375	6.19	0.269	3.93	0.267	0.731	0.325	3.62	0.282	0.00	16.4%
Keuchel	0.233	2.19	0.281	2.76	0.250	0.708	0.275	3.10	0.23	104.60	18.5%
Walker	0.327	3.76	0.309	4.87	0.240	0.742	0.307	4.05	0.255	86.14	21.0%
Ross	0.314	3.32	0.283	3.01	0.262	0.723	0.315	3.19	0.24	100.47	24.3%
Ray	0.346	4.73	0.358	4.95	0.252	0.687	0.316	4.34	0.283	0.00	15.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Tyson Ross SD (at ARI) – Ross has been a perpetual Raise candidate all season, but his lack of dominant starts combined with an MLB-leading 42 walks this season have pushed him down to the Call center for tonight’s game against the NL’s top-scoring offense. Ross has only given up 3 homers this year (zero since April) and he hasn’t had an outing of more than 4 runs allowed, but batters have had no problem raising batting averages and OBP’s against the right-handed slider aficionado.

John Lackey STL (at PHI) – Lackey has morphed into a control artist in his old age, and he’s done so consistently, registering between 1.9 and 2.2 walks per nine innings at every stop since he lost the 2012 campaign to injury. He was shelled in Colorado two start ago, an outing that was likely avoided by the vast majority of his fantasy managers and that added nearly three-quarters of a run to his ERA on the season. Take that forgettable start away and Lackey has a sparkling 2.86 ERA on the season, and though his point potential is capped by a modest K count, today’s opponent could lead to a handsome reward to his DFS owners,

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. HOU) – Without question, Walker’s six weeks of the 2015 season were an unmitigated disaster. He traded blow-up starts with the occasional excellent outing, teasing the fantasy community just enough to encourage rostering him for a couple more blow-ups. His season line is still ugly, sporting a 5.00 ERA, which might be obscuring the fact that he has calmed the tornado of run-scoring over the past few weeks. In his last four starts, Walker has a 1.55 ERA while tossing 6 or more innings in each game, with 27 strikeouts and just 4 walks allowed across 29 combined innings. Today he gets a chance for vengeance against a Houston club that rocked him for 8 runs in 3.0 innings the last time they met, and Walker enters this meeting better prepared to hold up his end of the competitive bargain.

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. BOS) – Volquez spent his entire career giving away walks like they were fliers for Las Vegas hookers, but he has reformed his ways in recent years and is now just a tick worse than average. His game log reflects a flat plane of performance, with little trace of dominance or vulnerability, a trait that carves his appeal to DFS managers.

Aaron Harang PHI (vs. STL) – The right-hander has been very effective this season, and he has registered six innings of work in 13 of his 14 outings on the year – the one exception fell a single out shy of the six-inning barrier. That start came at the beginning of June, and in fact all three starts that he has had this month have been forgettable – consider that he gave up more than 3 runs just once between April and May, but he has surrendered 4 or more runs in all 3 turns this month. He faces the Cardinals today, an excellent team but with a weak offense that registers in the bottom third of the league in terms of run-scoring, but all it takes is one bad inning against the deep lineup of St. Louis.

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (vs. MIA)
Alfredo Simon DET (at NYY)
Tim Hudson SF (at LAD)
Robbie Ray ARI (vs. SD)
Williams Perez ATL (vs. NYM)
Rick Porcello BOS (at KC)
Erasmo Ramirez TB (at CLE)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Nathan Eovaldi NYY (vs. DET)
Carlos Frias LAD (vs. SF)
Tom Koehler MIA (at CIN)

Editor’s Note: Tom Koehler will not start for the Marlins today. Justin Nicolino will start in his place.

Starting Pitcher Salaries

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window.