Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, September 10th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-10 23:22:05

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Lackey	CHC	HOU	381.1	3.02	3.84	1.13	57.9%	21.7%	6.3%	0.94	1.27
McHugh	HOU	CHC	356	4.35	3.93	1.38	42.9%	20.9%	6.3%	1.09	1.26
Archer	TBR	NYY	387.1	3.60	3.25	1.19	55.0%	28.8%	7.9%	1.00	1.38
Tanaka	NYY	TBR	333.1	3.29	3.58	1.04	66.7%	21.7%	4.4%	1.13	1.47
Rodriguez	BOS	TOR	203.2	4.24	4.40	1.30		18.9%	7.7%	1.19	1.06
Happ	TOR	BOS	336.1	3.48	3.98	1.22	30.8%	21.3%	6.8%	0.96	1.20
Hernandez	SEA	OAK	329	3.61	3.83	1.22	81.0%	21.8%	8.4%	1.07	1.96
Graveman	OAK	SEA	278.2	3.91	4.54	1.33		14.5%	6.7%	1.16	1.80
Hutchison	PIT	CIN	163	5.52	4.09	1.47	31.6%	19.7%	6.7%	1.44	1.07
Eickhoff	PHI	WAS	218.2	3.58	4.05	1.18		20.7%	5.7%	1.11	1.02
Scherzer	WAS	PHI	425.2	2.83	2.81	0.92	60.0%	31.1%	4.9%	1.12	0.75
Jimenez	BAL	DET	300.1	4.91	4.34	1.49	27.8%	20.2%	9.8%	1.02	1.54
Zimmermann	DET	BAL	299	3.91	4.11	1.24	52.6%	18.1%	4.8%	1.02	1.16
Clevinger	CLE	MIN	37.1	5.30	4.90	1.50		21.2%	13.3%	0.96	1.05
Santiago	MIN	CLE	332.2	4.19	4.68	1.31	16.7%	20.2%	9.6%	1.57	0.64
Volquez	KCR	CWS	367	4.22	4.44	1.38	50.0%	17.6%	8.3%	0.88	1.58
Shields	CWS	KCR	353.2	4.84	4.38	1.46	42.9%	20.7%	9.6%	1.73	1.19
Hill	LAD	MIA	117	1.85	3.19	0.94		29.7%	7.6%	0.31	1.41
Koehler	MIA	LAD	343.1	3.98	4.72	1.39	52.6%	17.9%	9.7%	0.97	1.26
Colon	NYM	ATL	359.1	3.73	4.21	1.24	42.1%	16.3%	3.5%	1.10	1.22
Gant	ATL	NYM	38.1	4.70	3.81	1.38		23.4%	7.2%	1.17	1.08
Anderson	MIL	STL	282	4.50	4.45	1.34	40.0%	18.0%	7.1%	1.37	1.05
Wainwright	STL	MIL	196	4.18	4.14	1.31	84.2%	18.8%	6.0%	0.69	1.57
Cueto	SFG	ARI	403.1	3.19	3.76	1.11	76.2%	21.0%	5.2%	0.78	1.39
Bradley	ARI	SFG	152.2	5.07	4.69	1.55		19.5%	11.4%	1.12	1.72
Gray	COL	SDP	186.1	4.73	3.82	1.32		24.2%	8.0%	0.97	1.40
Friedrich	SDP	COL	163	5.08	4.74	1.58		16.4%	9.5%	0.99	1.37
Hamels	TEX	LAA	387	3.47	3.70	1.24	58.8%	24.1%	8.0%	1.00	1.56
Wright	LAA	TEX	13	7.62	5.15	2.08		9.4%	3.1%	1.38	1.05

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. PHI) – Facing the Phillies should bolster Scherzer’s quest for the NL Cy Young award, as a soft schedule down the stretch gives an additional edge to Nats pitchers and one of his main competitions for hardware – teammate Stephen Strasburg – is down for the count. Scherzer faced Philly two starts ago, giving up two runs over eight full frames with just three hits and one walk to go with 11 strikeouts. It was his fourth double-digit strikeout game in six August starts, and though he only struck out five Braves in his last start, that has as much to do with Atlanta’s high-contact approach versus right-handed pitchers – Scherzer faced them in mid-August as well, with a modest K-count of six in the ballgame. Expect another high-scoring outing that is laced with strikeouts for Scherzer tonight against the Phillies.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Rich Hill LAD (at MIA) – The Dodgers’ deadline acquisition sat on the shelf for several weeks due to a lingering blister, delaying his introduction to the Dodger faithful, but after two starts with his new team Hill is already having an impact. He has thrown 12.0 pristine innings in his first two starts with the Dodgers, with zero runs allowed with just six hits and two walks against 11 strikeouts. He beat the rival Giants in his first turn then pitched six one-hit frames against the Padres in his last start, and now he lines up against an ailing Marlins lineup that should pose little challenge. He has been able to clear six innings while keeping the pitch count under 90 in each of his last two games, but expect the Dodgers to let out the leash on his pitch count tonight, especially if Hill is cruising.

Johnny Cueto SF (at ARI) – Cueto has been lights out in three of his past four starts, surpassing six innings and allowing just one run in each of the three turns. The outlier was a short outing against these Diamondbacks two starts ago, in which Cueto gave up four runs on five hits and an uncharacteristic total of four walks in just 4.2 innings of work. It was the second-highest walk total on the season for Cueto, who has walked two or fewer batters in 25 of his 28 starts this season. The strikeouts, on the other hand, have been unimpressive for over a month, as Cueto hasn’t cracked more than a half-dozen strikeouts in any of his last six starts, a span of 36.1 innings that includes just 27 total punchouts.

Jon Gray COL (at SD) – Gray’s performances have been polarizing this season. He has shown that he can be dominant on the road or in his high-altitude home of Coors Field, but Gray has also endured utter disaster starts at home as well as on the road. He’s been vulnerable on the road to good offenses (STL) and bad (MIA), yet he has been effective enough to blank the Dodgers at altitude over six innings just two starts ago. He’s a very interesting play today against the low-scoring, high-whiffing offense of the Padres, but Gray is also going through some rough times, having given up five-plus runs and/or pitched fewer than five innings in four of his last six starts. He earns the Raise designation for the upside, but there is a steep downside to rostering Gray, as well.

Cole Hamels TEX (at LAA) – The Mariners had their way with Hamels, rocking the southpaw for 13 runs on 14 hits and seven walks in a total of just 6.0 innings over the last two starts. It was a disturbing disruption for a pitcher who had compiled a 1.59 ERA over the previous eight starts, with 58 strikeouts against 14 walks in 56.2 innings pitched. Perhaps the Mariners unlocked the code to crack Hamels, and the left-hander’s struggles were confined to his opponent the past two starts, but the spike in walks opens up the door to the possibility that Hamels is just off his game right now, the odds of which effectively knocks him down the rankings for tonight’s slate.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Lackey	0.315	3.09	0.263	2.97	0.249	0.745	0.278	3.61	0.233	0.00	21.7%
McHugh	0.318	4.39	0.341	4.31	0.249	0.742	0.332	3.83	0.277	98.28	20.9%
Archer	0.279	3.62	0.294	3.58	0.250	0.734	0.300	3.22	0.226	102.33	28.8%
Tanaka	0.282	3.46	0.278	3.14	0.245	0.719	0.263	3.60	0.227	94.83	21.7%
Rodriguez	0.342	4.66	0.302	4.12	0.267	0.794	0.280	4.31	0.247	94.31	18.9%
Happ	0.293	3.11	0.303	3.59	0.276	0.777	0.296	3.67	0.247	91.31	21.3%
Hernandez	0.308	3.91	0.298	3.31	0.248	0.701	0.277	4.07	0.233	99.29	21.8%
Graveman	0.327	3.43	0.315	4.40	0.250	0.737	0.288	4.57	0.266	91.06	14.5%
Stephenson	0.293	4.35			0.258	0.724	0.229	5.69	0.231	0.06	18.3%
Hutchison	0.322	5.42	0.398	5.64	0.251	0.713	0.339	4.58	0.292	0.00	19.7%
Eickhoff	0.345	4.35	0.265	2.84	0.250	0.729	0.285	3.85	0.244	93.19	20.7%
Scherzer	0.295	3.13	0.217	2.54	0.241	0.685	0.256	2.96	0.197	0.01	31.1%
Jimenez	0.343	5.51	0.326	4.35	0.268	0.749	0.320	4.27	0.267	0.00	20.2%
Zimmermann	0.322	4.14	0.300	3.68	0.261	0.775	0.303	3.81	0.265	95.24	18.1%
Clevinger	0.262	4.08	0.370	6.41	0.249	0.721	0.288	4.44	0.238	0.00	21.2%
Santiago	0.311	3.23	0.329	4.49	0.269	0.744	0.258	5.05	0.234	95.59	20.2%
Volquez	0.316	3.88	0.318	4.56	0.251	0.704	0.301	4.08	0.261	96.78	17.6%
Shields	0.374	4.39	0.343	5.24	0.263	0.718	0.303	5.21	0.267	0.00	20.7%
Hill	0.181	1.61	0.245	1.92	0.271	0.733	0.258	2.40	0.18	0.01	29.7%
Koehler	0.328	3.98	0.313	3.99	0.253	0.751	0.291	4.35	0.253	94.00	17.9%
Colon	0.323	3.71	0.305	3.76	0.254	0.693	0.302	3.87	0.272	83.53	16.3%
Gant	0.338	4.22	0.360	5.29	0.243	0.713	0.330	3.91	0.268	50.71	23.4%
Anderson	0.313	4.08	0.358	4.86	0.260	0.761	0.297	4.61	0.266	87.96	18.0%
Wainwright	0.340	4.69	0.299	3.82	0.251	0.714	0.322	3.40	0.27	87.80	18.8%
Cueto	0.276	2.51	0.294	3.79	0.262	0.733	0.285	3.32	0.237	102.93	21.0%
Bradley	0.366	4.50	0.312	5.58	0.262	0.735	0.310	4.65	0.263	0.00	19.5%
Gray	0.310	4.26	0.325	5.16	0.237	0.681	0.320	3.71	0.253	0.00	24.2%
Friedrich	0.297	4.56	0.358	5.33	0.264	0.730	0.323	4.44	0.283	0.00	16.4%
Hamels	0.284	2.58	0.303	3.71	0.247	0.705	0.295	3.72	0.238	102.90	24.1%
Wright					0.260	0.750	0.426	4.69	0.403	0.00	9.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Adam Wainwright STL (vs. MIL) – It has been a tumultuous campaign for the veteran right-hander, in which he carried a 6.80 ERA in mid-May and has recently been through a brutal stretch, including six or more runs allowed in three of his last six starts and three-plus tallies in five of his last six games. The one that stands out came just two starts ago, in which Waino allowed just one run over 7.0 innings on three hits and no walks, including seven strikeouts. The start was against these Brewers, a lineup whose affinity for strikeouts and lack of firepower (especially post-deadline) has made them a consistent target for DFS gamers when choosing their arms on a day-to-day basis.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at WAS) – when it comes to innings, Eickhoff is one of the most predictable pitchers in the game. He has pitched 5.0-to-7.0 innings in 26 of his 28 starts this season, with the two outliers both coming within two outs of that range. He has pitched exactly 6.0 frames in five of his last six starts – in the other game he came one shy of six frames – giving up between two and four earned runs in each turn. The K counts have been modest, with five or fewer strikeouts in six of his last seven starts, but his avoidance of free passes has helped to offset the modest bat-missing skills.

Robert Stephenson CIN (at PIT) – Stephenson had a solid season in his second go-around with Triple-A Louisville, posting a 3.45 ERA with a strikeout rate of 9.9 K/9 and, perhaps more importantly, a strong walk rate of 3.1 BB/9, this after walking more than 4.0 batters per nine at every stop the previous two seasons. Stephenson made his big-league debut back at the start of the season, was immediately sent to the minors and came back up for another start a couple weeks later, after which he remained on the farm until rosters expanded. He has been effective in the three big-league starts, and in his last turn the right-hander struck out nine Mets in just 5.1 innings, giving up two runs on a pair of solo homers but otherwise quieting the opposing offense. Expect a more modest K count in tonight’s game, but otherwise solid performance for the youngster.

Bartolo Colon NYM (at ATL) – Colon is all about the floor, having scored 15 or more points (DraftKings) in his last four consecutive starts (and six of the last seven), but his low ceiling has resulted in his exceeding 20 points just once in that stretch. The Braves of the second half haven’t been quite the offensive sinkhole as the first-half version, and their penchant for contact has thwarted pitchers with much better reputations than that of Colon, but strikeouts are not his game and Atlanta should still prove to be a relatively easy hurdle for the rotund Colon to clear.

Archie Bradley ARI (vs. SF) – The former top prospect has been decidedly underwhelming this season, with a 4.85 ERA and an egregious 4.3 BB/9, though he has struck out nearly a batter per inning. He has avoided disaster pretty well, though, and Bradley has given up two-to-four earned runs in each of his last six starts, including six inning of two-run ball at Coors Field in his last turn, a game in which he exceeded 20 points (DK) for the fifth time in 21 starts this season. He has faced the Giants twice this season, including his first start of the year, but he handled San Francisco when he traveled to the City back in July, giving up two runs over 6.0 innings with six strikeouts, and his DFS owners will look for a repeat performance from Bradley in tonight’s contest.

Tom Koehler MIA (vs. LAD)

Hector Santiago MIN (vs. CLE)

Drew Hutchison PIT (vs. CIN)

Mike Clevinger CLE (at MIN)

Edinson Volquez KC (at CHW)

Christian Friedrich SD (vs. COL)

John Gant ATL (vs. NYM)