Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, June 2nd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bumgarner | SFG | ATL | 290.2 | 2.72 | 3.08 | 1.04 | 47.6% | 27.1% | 5.2% | 0.84 | 1.15 |
| Blair | ATL | SFG | 27 | 6.67 | 5.86 | 1.74 | 10.6% | 11.4% | 0.33 | 1.30 | |
| Greinke | ARI | HOU | 293.1 | 2.39 | 3.39 | 0.95 | 50.0% | 22.8% | 4.7% | 0.71 | 1.48 |
| Keuchel | HOU | ARI | 301.1 | 3.20 | 3.12 | 1.12 | 50.0% | 22.6% | 6.4% | 0.75 | 2.95 |
| Urias | LAD | CHC | |||||||||
| Hendricks | CHC | LAD | 235.1 | 3.71 | 3.40 | 1.12 | 22.1% | 5.7% | 0.73 | 1.99 | |
| Porcello | BOS | BAL | 235.2 | 4.58 | 3.69 | 1.29 | 55.6% | 20.8% | 5.2% | 1.26 | 1.40 |
| Jimenez | BAL | BOS | 236.1 | 4.61 | 4.12 | 1.47 | 27.8% | 20.5% | 9.4% | 0.95 | 1.80 |
| Anderson | MIL | PHI | 206.2 | 4.49 | 4.31 | 1.31 | 40.0% | 17.5% | 6.4% | 1.31 | 1.15 |
| Eickhoff | PHI | MIL | 110.2 | 3.42 | 3.73 | 1.14 | 21.9% | 5.5% | 1.06 | 1.10 | |
| Ventura | KCR | CLE | 219 | 4.36 | 4.18 | 1.36 | 44.4% | 20.5% | 9.6% | 0.90 | 1.63 |
| Carrasco | CLE | KCR | 205.2 | 3.50 | 2.82 | 1.06 | 29.0% | 5.9% | 0.96 | 1.68 | |
| Nicasio | PIT | MIA | 105.1 | 4.27 | 3.86 | 1.48 | 35.7% | 24.2% | 10.8% | 0.77 | 1.27 |
| Chen | MIA | PIT | 251 | 3.59 | 3.96 | 1.23 | 31.6% | 19.5% | 5.2% | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| Moore | TBR | MIN | 120.2 | 5.37 | 4.31 | 1.51 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 1.42 | 1.09 | |
| | MIN | TBR | 215.1 | 4.05 | 4.25 | 1.33 | 52.6% | 16.9% | 8.4% | 0.84 | 2.02 |
| Simon | CIN | COL | 227.1 | 5.86 | 4.90 | 1.55 | 63.2% | 14.1% | 8.5% | 1.31 | 1.33 |
| Butler | COL | CIN | 112 | 5.38 | 5.00 | 1.60 | 13.0% | 9.2% | 1.37 | 1.64 | |
| Miley | SEA | SDP | 253.2 | 4.58 | 4.26 | 1.36 | 33.3% | 18.0% | 7.5% | 1.03 | 1.46 |
| Rea | SDP | SEA | 82 | 4.39 | 4.60 | 1.33 | 17.5% | 9.3% | 0.77 | 1.41 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at ATL) – Bumgarner is by far the best option today, and it’s not particularly close. He is the most talented pitcher on the slate based on the past several seasons of performance, he is the best pitcher on the slate if looking at just 2016 numbers, and he gets to enjoy the greatest context of the day by facing the light-hitting Atlanta Braves, whose only valid threat is left-hand-hitting Freddie Freeman and his southpaw-phobic platoon splits. Bumgarner hasn’t given up more than one run in any of his last four starts, hasn’t surrendered more than two earned runs since Jackie Robinson Day and has logged 6.0 or more innings in eight straight starts. He is playing one of the three early games, so Bum will only be available for Early or All Day contests, but expect Mad Bum to have a massive ownership rate in the tournaments where he is eligible.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. KC) – The Raise section is particularly light today, as there is a massive cliff from Bummer down to the next tier of pitchers. Carrasco would form a decent bridge on his own merits if he wasn’t coming back from injury, but the Indians will likely limit his workload in his first game back since straining his hamstring, with rumors putting the pitch-count around 80 throws for today’s outing. Even with the tight reins on his workload that will limit Carrasco’s innings, Ks and ability to secure the W, his talent puts him as the second-most enticing option on the board, mostly due to the fear of how badly some of the other arms could set a DFS team backwards today.
Zack Greinke ARI (at HOU) – Greinke’s expected K-count gets a jump because he is facing the most strikeout-prone offense in MLB, but the Astros also bring the type of take-and-rake philosophy to the table that can result in crooked numbers on the scoreboard if their aggressive swings result in contact. One could say that Greinke has shaken off the pair of seven-run starts that marred his first month of the season, but since the last blowup Greinke has posted a 3.60 ERA with 36 strikeouts against eight walks in 40.0 innings (six starts) – solid numbers, but less than what was expected of Greinke heading into the season and certainly not enough to erase the memory of his dreadful opening month to the campaign. Putting the exclamation point on his recent vulnerability, Greinke gave up four runs to the Padres in his last turn, striking out just two batters over 6.0 innings of work. He has done nothing this season to earn the raise designation, but the dearth of available alternatives leaves me reaching for his past while pointing to his opponents’ K rate.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bumgarner | 0.235 | 2.66 | 0.276 | 2.74 | 0.228 | 0.625 | 0.282 | 2.89 | 0.218 | 0.01 | 27.1% |
| Blair | 0.408 | 5.40 | 0.309 | 7.90 | 0.263 | 0.738 | 0.340 | 4.29 | 0.306 | 0.00 | 10.6% |
| Greinke | 0.271 | 2.61 | 0.236 | 2.21 | 0.246 | 0.743 | 0.254 | 2.98 | 0.209 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Keuchel | 0.230 | 3.29 | 0.288 | 3.17 | 0.261 | 0.754 | 0.283 | 3.18 | 0.231 | 0.01 | 22.6% |
| Urias | 0.242 | 0.714 | |||||||||
| Hendricks | 0.329 | 3.25 | 0.250 | 4.05 | 0.244 | 0.722 | 0.286 | 3.22 | 0.233 | 0.01 | 22.1% |
| Porcello | 0.325 | 4.36 | 0.338 | 4.85 | 0.257 | 0.759 | 0.317 | 4.05 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 20.8% |
| Jimenez | 0.329 | 4.90 | 0.336 | 4.31 | 0.271 | 0.763 | 0.325 | 4.11 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 20.5% |
| Anderson | 0.320 | 4.01 | 0.346 | 4.89 | 0.243 | 0.676 | 0.296 | 4.49 | 0.266 | 0.00 | 17.5% |
| Eickhoff | 0.364 | 4.99 | 0.237 | 2.01 | 0.254 | 0.712 | 0.281 | 3.59 | 0.238 | 0.01 | 21.9% |
| Ventura | 0.320 | 5.21 | 0.307 | 3.46 | 0.252 | 0.727 | 0.293 | 4.06 | 0.244 | 0.01 | 20.5% |
| Carrasco | 0.282 | 3.49 | 0.278 | 3.51 | 0.269 | 0.737 | 0.294 | 3.00 | 0.223 | 0.01 | 29.0% |
| Nicasio | 0.410 | 6.27 | 0.276 | 3.18 | 0.259 | 0.697 | 0.334 | 3.59 | 0.258 | 0.00 | 24.2% |
| Chen | 0.248 | 2.16 | 0.344 | 4.02 | 0.257 | 0.716 | 0.295 | 4.08 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 19.5% |
| Moore | 0.341 | 5.66 | 0.359 | 5.25 | 0.252 | 0.710 | 0.334 | 4.67 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 19.2% |
| | 0.317 | 4.47 | 0.302 | 3.64 | 0.243 | 0.703 | 0.288 | 4.09 | 0.251 | 0.00 | 16.9% |
| Simon | 0.383 | 5.73 | 0.341 | 6.02 | 0.270 | 0.770 | 0.311 | 5.09 | 0.286 | 0.00 | 14.1% |
| Butler | 0.417 | 5.79 | 0.341 | 5.04 | 0.244 | 0.697 | 0.315 | 5.33 | 0.296 | 0.00 | 13.0% |
| Miley | 0.299 | 4.17 | 0.336 | 4.70 | 0.239 | 0.681 | 0.304 | 4.11 | 0.265 | 0.00 | 18.0% |
| Rea | 0.291 | 4.47 | 0.337 | 4.29 | 0.246 | 0.731 | 0.280 | 4.14 | 0.241 | 0.01 | 17.5% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. ARI) – Keuchel keeps plugging away, staying in games to chew up outs yet watching as batters continually log hits and walks against the lefty. He has given up five or more runs in five of his last eight starts, alternating between outings that produce quality starts and those that are utter disasters, the latter of which include a seven-run outing against the Rangers two starts ago and an eight-run shellacking at the hands of the Red Sox two starts before that. Even on his good days, the upside is limited, and he still hasn’t had a single start that cleared 27 points on DraftKings or 48 points on FanDuel. Home runs have been his latest issue, giving up seven deep flies in his last five turns after surrendering just one home run over his first six games.
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (vs. PIT) – After four years of posting respectable ERA’s in the pitcher hell of Camden Yards, it was expected that Chen would be able to take advantage of the cavernous dimensions of Marlins Park and the move to the non-DH league to improve his fantasy numbers. Instead, Chen’s current 4.37 ERA would qualify as a career-worst if the season ended today, his hit rate is following suit (9.5 H/9) and he’s giving up just as many home runs (1.2 HR/9) as he did with the Orioles. The peripherals are right in line with past performance, so it’s not as if his whole stat-line has cratered, but the assumed improvements of his new context have been lost in translation. He did have a weird game against the Brewers on May 11, in which he racked up 12 strikeouts in the 27 batters that he faced that day, but his next-highest single-game K count is seven.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. MIL) – Eickhoff was a mildly-hot commodity back in April, after he struck out nine batters in each of two consecutive starts, but he quickly soured any goodwill that had been generated by coughing up seven runs to these Brewers in his next start. Since that game, Eickhoff has pitched six or more innings in five of six starts, but his 4.08 ERA over those six starts tells more of the story. He has been the king of the baseline quality start, the three-run, 6.0-inning game that infuriates the haters because it is hardly a start of “quality” in today’s game. The strikeouts have disappeared, however, as Eickhoff has whiffed more than four batters just once in his last six starts. Unfortunately for Eickhoff, Brauny is back in the lineup — even at full-force, though, Milwaukee carries a below-average offense.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. LAD) – Hendricks offers an unsexy profile due to the relatively-low K rate (20.6 percent) and the sub-90 mph fastball, but he’s been able to avoid hard contact this season with the National League’s lowest homer rate (0.3 HR/9) in addition to the tenth-lowest hit rate in the senior circuit (four of the top 11 are in the Cubs rotation; the other one is Jon Lester). He offers uncommon safety on a volatile day for pitchers, particularly with the Dodgers going through an offensive funk, as the team has combined for a .283 wOBA and .641 OPS over the last seven days, including a 26.9-percent strikeout rate.
Rick Porcello BOS (at BAL) – Porcello was making his lucrative deal with the Red Sox look good over the first month of the 2016 season, rocking a 2.76 ERA for April with 36 strikeouts and just six walks in 32.2 innings. His first three starts of the season weren’t especially impressive, giving up three or more runs yet pitching 6.0 or more innings in each start, but his K counts (24 Ks in 19.1 IP) raised eyebrows, and the overall line looked great after he closed out the month with 13.1 innings of shutout baseball. For the month of May, the starts have looked like the first three games in terms of run prevention, but he hasn’t been piling the strikeouts high enough to compensate for runners crossing the plate. He struck out a half-dozen batters or more in all five April starts, but he has yet to crack more than five since the calendar flipped, and he has to hope that all it took was another calendar flip to rediscover those lost strikeouts. Playing against the O’s in Baltimore effectively hurts his stock, but Porcello has done his own damage to that value for the past several weeks.
Julio Urias LAD (at CHC) – Urias’ big league debut did not go as smoothly as anticipated, as the teenager failed to escape the third inning before the Dodgers went to the bullpen, with the young lefty having given up a trio of first-inning runs along with three walks on the afternoon against recording just eight outs. He may have been shaking off the jitters, which is to be expected, particularly from a 19-year old who is taking the world’s grandest stage for the first time in his career. Urias was leading the high-octane Pacific Coast League with a 1.10 ERA and 0.78 WHIP when he received the promotion, and though Urias was sent back down to the farm following the game, an injury to Alex Wood has allowed the Dodgers to recall the wunderkind without having to sit out during the requisite waiting period. Too bad for his Urias that his second career start will come against the greatest offense in all the land, and short of a dominant outing there will still be plenty of question marks remaining about Urias’ 2016 outlook after this game is over.
Matt Moore TB (at MIN)
Yordano Ventura KC (vs. CLE)
Wade Miley SEA (at SD)
Chase Anderson MIL (at PHI)
Michael Pineda NYY (at DET)
Juan Nicasio PIT (at MIA)
Colin Rea SD (vs. SEA)
Phil Hughes MIN (vs. TB)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Aaron Blair ATL (vs. SF)
Matt Boyd DET (vs. NYY)
Eddie Butler COL (vs. CIN)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. BOS) – Not that the Sawx need any help, but Jimenez will be there to offer walks and serve up hittable pitches to an offense that doesn’t require any assistance. This one could get ugly, particularly in a ballpark that acts as a launching pad for home runs.
Alfredo Simon CIN (at COL) – Bad pitcher, worse venue. Stacking Rox will be a popular play today.
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