Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, September 29th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-10-01 16:33:34

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Stroman	TOR	BAL	149.2	3.43	3.26	1.15	66.7%	19.9%	5.3%	0.48	2.06
Gonzalez	BAL	TOR	300	3.99	4.44	1.34	40.0%	17.0%	7.8%	1.47	1.00
Wacha	STL	PIT	284.1	3.17	3.91	1.20	53.3%	20.4%	7.3%	0.73	1.31
Morton	PIT	STL	284.1	4.08	3.80	1.31	50.0%	18.2%	8.0%	0.70	2.55
Porcello	BOS	NYY	361.2	4.13	3.86	1.29	55.6%	17.4%	5.1%	1.05	1.54
Pineda	NYY	BOS	227.1	3.29	3.21	1.09	75.0%	22.5%	3.1%	0.95	1.34
Colon	NYM	PHI	391	4.12	3.90	1.23	42.1%	17.3%	3.3%	1.06	1.07
Buchanan	PHI	NYM	181	5.22	4.57	1.52	20.0%	13.0%	7.2%	1.09	1.66
Haren	CHC	CIN	360	3.93	4.09	1.18	30.0%	17.9%	4.9%	1.45	0.83
Smith	CIN	CHC	23.2	7.23	5.40	1.90		16.5%	13.9%	1.52	1.12
Conley	MIA	TBR	55	3.93	3.82	1.31		22.5%	7.8%	0.98	1.10
Moore	TBR	MIA	60	5.85	4.68	1.60		16.6%	8.5%	1.35	0.97
Gibson	MIN	CLE	368	4.21	4.18	1.30	52.6%	15.6%	7.7%	0.73	2.03
Anderson	CLE	MIN	84.1	3.31	4.74	1.13		12.4%	5.9%	0.96	1.43
Roark	WAS	ATL	297	3.48	4.05	1.19	52.6%	16.3%	5.2%	0.94	1.25
Wisler	ATL	WAS	93.1	5.40	5.00	1.58		15.4%	8.8%	1.45	0.77
Norris	DET	TEX	60	4.05	4.53	1.23		18.3%	8.8%	1.35	0.86
Hamels	TEX	DET	402	3.00	3.38	1.18	58.8%	24.1%	7.1%	0.74	1.51
Cueto	KCR	CHW	444.2	2.79	3.41	1.02	76.2%	23.2%	5.9%	0.85	1.24
Samardzija	CHW	KCR	426.2	3.99	3.63	1.18	60.0%	20.6%	5.2%	0.99	1.28
Bergman	COL	ARI	115	5.24	4.48	1.47	33.3%	13.0%	4.6%	1.33	0.93
Ray	ARI	COL	146	4.44	4.25	1.42	33.3%	20.0%	9.0%	0.80	1.13
Bassitt	OAK	LAA	106	3.31	4.41	1.28		17.3%	8.2%	0.42	1.20
Tropeano	LAA	OAK	52.2	4.44	4.45	1.41		17.5%	7.9%	0.17	0.89
Lopez	MIL	SDP
Ross	SDP	MIL	385.2	2.99	3.28	1.25	66.7%	24.9%	9.5%	0.49	2.86
Fiers	HOU	SEA	246.1	3.22	3.63	1.15		24.6%	7.9%	1.10	0.84
Nuno	SEA	HOU	239.2	4.28	3.87	1.26	18.8%	19.9%	6.6%	1.43	0.93
Kershaw	LAD	SFG	418.1	2.02	2.21	0.89	66.7%	32.6%	4.5%	0.52	1.79
Bumgarner	SFG	LAD	430	2.93	2.99	1.05	47.6%	26.0%	4.7%	0.82	1.21

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at SF) – He no longer has a shot to bring the ERA under 2.00 for this season (it would have been the third year in a row), but there is still a small chance the Kersh could notch 300 strikeouts before the regular season is over. Currently sitting at 281 punchouts, Kersh will either have to challenge the MLB record for strikeouts in a game or be allotted another start, as his spot is due up on the last day of the regular season. The odds of his actually pitching that day are remote, however, given that the Dodgers have sewn up the NL West and that he will be tapped for Game One of the NLDS, but that series doesn’t begin until Friday, October 9th, giving the team just enough time to allow Kershaw standard rest in case they want to let him make the push for 300.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. LAD) – The Bumgarner-versus-Kershaw show has become a regular occurrence, with the two southpaw aces squaring off multiple times each season, and these aces never disappoint. They have already faced each other three times this season, games in which the Giants hold a 3-0 advantage, as Bummer has tossed 20.7 frames of 1.31-ERA baseball, with 21 strikeouts against five walks. Something was amiss with the schedule the last time that Bumgarner faced the Dodgers (he faced Zack Greinke), and it was the only time this year that the Giants lost one of Bummer’s starts against their long-time rivals. With a 1.93 ERA in his last 10 starts, Bumgarner is rounding into the postseason form that led him to be a hero last year, but alas he will likely be watching the playoffs from his couch (or a golf course) this time around, that is unless the Giants can make up a five game deficit with five to play.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Tyson Ross SD (vs. MIL) – Ross crosses the Raise threshold for today’s game thanks to an opponent that has been completely lost at the plate recently – the Brewers have a .263 wOBA, a 605 OPS and a massive K rate of 25.3 percent in the last seven days. Milwaukee shipped off half of their starting lineup in the trade-deadline purge, and with Ryan Braun declared out for the rest of the season due to back issues (he has surgery scheduled for just after the regular season ends), there are few landmines for Ross to dodge in the Brewer lineup. The MLB walks leader has calmed things down a bit in recent starts with just nine free passes over his last five starts combined, a stretch that includes a 1.97 ERA and and 36 strikeouts in 32.0 innings as Ross has sprinted to the finish of the regular season.

Marcus Stroman TOR (at BAL) – Stroman’s season was thought to be over when he tore his ACL in spring training this year, but he has staged a miraculous comeback that could pay huge dividends for Toronto in the playoffs. He has worked his way up to 95 or more pitches in each of his last two turns, and the performance speaks for itself, with a 1.93 ERA through his first 19.0 innings of 2015 despite his facing the robust lineups of the Yankees (twice) and Red Sox. The Orioles are another tough opponent, and given that this might be his final tune-up before the postseason, Stroman forgoes the luxury of facing easier opponents in 2015. His ten strikeouts this far might be less than ideal, but there is no telling what Stroman will unlock as he rounds into form.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Stroman	0.279	3.05	0.278	3.90	0.253	0.746	0.299	2.93	0.245	81.07	19.9%
Gonzalez	0.348	3.70	0.327	4.30	0.264	0.787	0.283	4.97	0.26	94.54	17.0%
Wacha	0.266	2.95	0.307	3.35	0.263	0.727	0.278	3.51	0.231	94.69	20.4%
Morton	0.335	4.63	0.298	3.57	0.263	0.739	0.300	3.92	0.253	92.92	18.2%
Porcello	0.336	3.99	0.313	4.30	0.249	0.741	0.312	3.94	0.274	96.12	17.4%
Pineda	0.286	2.80	0.297	3.76	0.265	0.737	0.298	3.11	0.247	92.47	22.5%
Colon	0.306	3.87	0.325	4.40	0.245	0.678	0.306	3.70	0.271	90.95	17.3%
Buchanan	0.339	4.52	0.377	5.80	0.248	0.715	0.320	4.70	0.295	87.03	13.0%
Haren	0.331	4.00	0.305	3.86	0.251	0.713	0.270	4.45	0.248	94.10	17.9%
Smith	0.492	8.00	0.336	6.75	0.246	0.729	0.347	6.27	0.305	0.00	16.5%
Conley	0.376	2.25	0.304	4.21	0.260	0.757	0.314	3.77	0.256	71.54	22.5%
Moore	0.369	7.85	0.370	4.97	0.276	0.740	0.337	4.94	0.299	87.42	16.6%
Gibson	0.311	4.15	0.299	4.27	0.251	0.719	0.286	3.93	0.253	95.66	15.6%
Anderson	0.326	4.33	0.264	2.57	0.244	0.698	0.248	4.29	0.237	85.50	12.4%
Roark	0.323	3.80	0.282	3.18	0.257	0.684	0.281	3.89	0.252	66.58	16.3%
Wisler	0.449	5.74	0.285	5.12	0.251	0.724	0.316	5.16	0.289	87.28	15.4%
Norris	0.344	5.17	0.300	3.65	0.250	0.724	0.250	4.76	0.229	64.44	18.3%
Hamels	0.294	2.11	0.288	3.24	0.283	0.807	0.297	3.22	0.235	104.42	24.1%
Cueto	0.257	2.14	0.289	3.39	0.253	0.702	0.257	3.38	0.212	104.95	23.2%
Samardzija	0.326	4.28	0.290	3.72	0.269	0.742	0.294	3.68	0.25	102.61	20.6%
Bergman	0.292	3.35	0.424	6.75	0.265	0.735	0.327	4.56	0.307	49.61	13.0%
Ray	0.333	3.72	0.340	4.70	0.254	0.673	0.319	3.88	0.263	87.27	20.0%
Bassitt	0.308	3.05	0.296	3.64	0.248	0.707	0.294	3.67	0.246	80.55	17.3%
Tropeano	0.305	3.82	0.310	5.32	0.252	0.710	0.327	2.95	0.268	83.18	17.5%
Lopez					0.245	0.692
Ross	0.306	3.15	0.271	2.84	0.260	0.717	0.305	3.10	0.23	99.29	24.9%
Fiers	0.268	2.98	0.307	3.42	0.241	0.718	0.267	3.75	0.219	92.30	24.6%
Nuno	0.262	2.49	0.348	4.90	0.248	0.750	0.284	4.50	0.252	60.14	19.9%
Kershaw	0.235	1.90	0.236	2.06	0.276	0.724	0.282	1.97	0.197	102.59	32.6%
Bumgarner	0.243	2.24	0.284	3.10	0.263	0.752	0.291	2.90	0.228	102.69	26.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Each of the next four pitchers were on the border of Raise territory, teetering on the cusp due to heavy-hitting opponents, recent struggles, or a little bit of both. Each hurler has spent significant time in the Raise group this season, and either one could put together a Raise-worthy performance tonight, but there is enough reason for consternation to keep them in the Call group.

Cole Hamels TEX (vs. DET) – The Tigers ruin the lives of lefties, with southpaw-mashers such as Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Ian Kinsler honing in when a left-handed pitcher takes the mound. As a team, Detroit has a .348 wOBA and 807 OPS against lefties this year, the highest level of platoon-split production available on today’s slate, and the only silver lining from Hamels’ standpoint is that the Tigers have hit a small dip in the offensive road recently, including a .283 wOBA, a 649 OPS, and a 34.7-percent K rate over the last seven days. For his part, Hamels has had a pair of solid starts leading up to today’s game, with one run allowed and 14 strikeouts in 13.0 innings, though the K’s have been unevenly distributed with just two whiffs in his last start (vs. Oakland) but 12 in the prior turn (versus Seattle).

Johnny Cueto KC (at CHW) – Cueto was a perpetual Raise option throughout the regular season, but his recent struggles have sent him hurtling down the SP ranks, such that he finds himself in the Call group despite facing a lineup of Pale Hose that has scored the fewest runs in the American League. September has been especially brutal, as Cueto has failed to top five punchouts in any start and has given up seven or more hits in each turn. The ERA has survived the last couple of starts, with five earned across 14.0 frames, but even those relatively good days involve limited fantasy scoring due to the low K counts – he has scored 25.50 points on Draft Kings across the two games and 19.00 points on FanDuel, making it tough to see much upside in tonight’s contest.

Michael Wacha STL (at PIT) – After cruising through August with a 1.13 ERA in five starts, Wacha has hit a speed bump in September. It could be a case of the right-hander running out of gas, with an unprecedented workload that includes 70 additional innings pitched at the highest level above and beyond what he has posted in any past season. The ERA for September stands at 6.75 and he has just 15 strikeouts yet an uncharacteristic 14 walks across 20.0 innings this month. Wacha is typically good for one or two walks in each game, but recently that total has swelled to three or four free passes per turn, and his loss of command is also reflected in the five homers that he has allowed in the past four games.

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. BOS) – A pitcher with a sparkling K-to-walk ratio of 147-to-21 in 151.0 innings this season, Pineda would be expected to have an ERA to match that level of efficiency, but his run-prevention stats reflect a 3.99 ERA that is nearly 0.7 runs higher than his FIP. The Yankees have kept him on a short leash since his return from the disabled list in August, as Pineda has yet to cross the 100-pitch barrier since combing back and hasn’t even topped 90 throws in either of his last two starts. The Yankees have a devastating back-end to the bullpen, so they can continue to protect Pineda into the playoffs, but the lighter workload has a ripple effect on DFS owners who are looking to roster the right-hander today against the Red Sox.

Mike Fiers HOU (at SEA) – Fiers was on a tear for his new team entering the final month of the season, but he has since hit a wall, with a 4.38 ERA and seven homers allowed across his last four games started. The ability to miss bats is in line with previous seasons, including a 23.4-percent K rate, btu his 8.5-percent walk rate is nearly two percentage points higher than in any of the previous three seasons. The homers have long been an issue for Fiers, and this season the ball is leaving the yard with greater frequency than ever before, setting the stage for Nelson Cruz and company to knock a couple of bombs in tonight’s matchup.

Bartolo Colon NYM (at PHI) – There is nothing sexy about the way that Colon goes about his business, with low K totals thanks to a pitch-to-contact approach, and there are previous few that are attracted to bowling balls like Colon attempting to fight off both Mother Nature and Father Time. He has struck out two or fewer hitters in each of his last four turns, and the rotund right-hander has been limited to just 75 pitches or fewer in each of his last two starts. The only thing keeping his ranking afloat is a light-hitting Phillies club that is letting the kids play out the string.

Jeff Samardzija CHW (vs. KC) – Hmmm, what to trust: a season chock-full of short outings and crooked numbers (a 5.04 ERA), or his incredible one-hit shutout of the menacing Tigers in his last turn. I’ll go ahead and trust the larger data set, meaning that I won’t shy away from stacking Royals against the Shark tonight, and certainly won’t be giving him the opportunity to take a bit out of the hull of my DFS roster, thus sinking my battleship.

Rick Porcello BOS (at NYY)

Matt Moore TB (vs. MIA)

Kyle Gibson MIN (at CLE)

Vidal Nuno SEA (vs. HOU)

Tanner Roark WAS (at ATL)

Daniel Norris DET (at TEX)

Dan Haren CHC (at CIN)

Cody Anderson CLE (vs. MIN)

Robbie Ray ARI (vs. COL)

Charlie Morton PIT (vs. STL)

Nick Tropeano LAA (vs. OAK)

Chris Bassitt OAK (at LAA)