FantasyDraft MLB Expert Survey: Monday, August 26th
Want to know who Notorious is definitely paying up for in MLB DFS today? Wondering which value play STLCardinals84 is eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy baseball analysts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup building decisions for tonight’s contests. NOTE: Surveys for early slates will be posted when there are four or more early games.
Monday, August 26th
Who is your favorite hitter for cash games?
Notorious: Paul Goldschmidt
MrTuttle: Aaron Judge
stevietpfl: Christian Yelich
SBK: Christian Yelich
Who is your favorite hitter for tournaments?
Notorious: Aaron Judge
MrTuttle: Bryce Harper
stevietpfl: Mike Moustakas
SBK: Gary Sanchez
Who is your favorite pitcher for cash games?
Notorious: Sonny Gray
MrTuttle: Sonny Gray
stevietpfl: Sonny Gray
SBK: Sonny Gray
Who is your favorite pitcher for tournaments?
Notorious: Pablo Lopez
MrTuttle: Sonny Gray
stevietpfl: Sonny Gray
SBK: Sonny Gray
Who is your favorite cheap pitcher for cash games?
Notorious: Tyler Beede
MrTuttle: Tyler Beede
stevietpfl: Tyler Beede
SBK: Tyler Beede
Who is your favorite cheap pitcher for tournaments?
Notorious: Pablo Lopez
MrTuttle: J.A. Happ
stevietpfl: J.A. Happ
SBK: Tyler Beede
Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?
Notorious: Jake Lamb
MrTuttle: Ryan O’Hearn
stevietpfl: Josh Rojas
SBK: Josh VanMeter
Who is your top contrarian play on the board?
Notorious: Dexter Fowler
MrTuttle: Eugenio Suarez
stevietpfl: Cory Spangenberg
SBK: Austin Nola
Which player are you most afraid of having little to no exposure to?
Notorious: Cody Bellinger
MrTuttle: Cody Bellinger
stevietpfl: Cody Bellinger
SBK: Bryce Harper
Which high-priced pitcher will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Adam Wainwright
MrTuttle: Adam Wainwright
stevietpfl: Adam Wainwright
SBK: Adam Wainwright
Which high-priced hitter will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Keston Hiura
MrTuttle: Eric Thames
stevietpfl: Aristides Aquino
SBK: Rhys Hoskins
What’s your sneaky home run call of the day?
Notorious: Hunter Dozier
MrTuttle: Corey Dickerson
stevietpfl: Austin Slater
SBK: Austin Nola
What’s your favorite overall team stack?
Notorious: NYY
MrTuttle: NYY
stevietpfl: MIL
SBK: NYY
What’s your favorite sneaky team stack?
Notorious: STL
MrTuttle: PHI
stevietpfl: SEA
SBK: SEA
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: Joe Musgrove has been extremely volatile this season. In his last 10 starts alone, he has three shutouts and three outings where he has allowed at least five runs. It’s a small slate, so it makes sense to get exposure to both Musgrove and the Phillies’ offense tonight (in separate lineups of course).
MrTuttle: We have a couple of difficult pitch count situations to predict for Monday’s slate. Dustin May is getting a start after working out of the bullpen for a game and seems unlikely to top 80 pitches. Pablo Lopez threw 70 pitches in his last rehab start and will likely be capped around 85 pitches in his first start back in the Majors.
stevietpfl: Adam Wainwright has a .393 wOBA with a .226 ISO and a 35.2% hard to soft contact ratio against left-handed hitters this season. The Brewers have 5 lefties with ISOs over .200 against right-handed pitching, and Miller Park is above average for home runs by left-handed hitters.
SBK: Outside of Sonny Gray, we don’t have anything remotely resembling a high-end pitching option tonight. With the Yankees and Brewers in good spots, we’ll also need to save some salary, so I’m expecting to be well overweight on guys like Bailey and Beede.
What is your hot take of the day?
Notorious: The Reds and Marlins combine to score a total of only two runs.
MrTuttle: Ryan O’Hearn takes Homer Bailey yard twice.
stevietpfl: J.A. Happ strikes out 8 hitters while allowing 4 solo home runs in the process.
SBK: The Giants score 10+ runs against Alex Young and the DBacks
Who is your top overall pitcher (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Sonny Gray – Gray is not only the most talented pitcher taking the mound, but he’s facing the Marlins in Miami. And for once, the sites have decided to price him correctly. While he’s going to be popular, it does feel a bit strange paying this salary for a pitcher that’s been routinely priced in the $8,000-$9,000 range. Perhaps that will lower his ownership a bit. Either way, I will be loading up on him in all formats. He boasts a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a ground ball rate of 52% on the season. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .271 with an average k-rate of 27% against right-handed pitching.
MrTuttle: Sonny Gray – Sonny Gray is Monday’s top pitching option by a wide margin. Gray is having a tremendous bounceback season with the Reds and gets a favorable road matchup against a Marlins offense that ranks second worst in the league against right-handed pitching with a 76 wRC+. Gray’s price tag would be a bit prohibitive on most slates but Monday’s lack of high-priced hitting options make Gray an easy roster.
stevietpfl: Sonny Gray – The projected starting lineup for the Marlins has a .118 ISO with a 25.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. That’s promising for Sonny Gray, and he’s also getting a big ballpark upgrade going to Miami. Gray has a .286 wOBA with a .126 ISO and a 29.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters, and he’s likely going to face six to eight right-handed hitters in this lineup. Gray is so much better than the second-best option that I’m just paying up for him on this slate.
SBK: Sonny Gray – There is no one close to Gray on single-pitcher sites. His strikeout bump from years past is a real thing and he’ll get to do business in a pitcher-friendly park against one of the league’s least powerful offenses.
Who is your top overall hitter (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Aaron Judge – My two favorite bats of tonight’s slate are both lefty mashers (Judge and Goldschmidt). I’ll give the former the slight edge, as he’s been red-hot over the last eight games, racking up 12 hits (including four home runs and two doubles). On the season, he boasts a .468 xwOBA with a 191 wRC+ against southpaws. He has plenty of upside in a matchup against Tommy Milone, who has given up a .241 ISO and a 1.92 HR/9 to batters from the right side of the plate.
MrTuttle: Aaron Judge – Judge is back! After a rocky middle of the season the Yankees outfielder finally seems to be back on track after slugging a HR in three consecutive games. Monday’s matchup for Judge is a good one for power against Tommy Milone and the Mariners bullpen. Milone is a fly ball pitcher (38 GB%) that allows a lot of solid contact (15.7 Soft%) which has resulted in the southpaw already giving up 19 HRs in 83.2 IP this season.
stevietpfl: Christian Yelich – I’ve talked about the Brewers a lot already, and I’m going to keep that rolling here with Yelich. After not hitting a home run last week, he’s in a great spot at home tonight. Yelich has a .387 ISO with a .494 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball this season and draws a really strong matchup. Overall, Yelich is the top hitter on the slate for me, and I’m going to do everything I can to play him and Gray together.
SBK: Christian Yelich – The Yankees are going to be immensely popular on a short slate, but the Brew Crew absolutely deserves love in their home park. Yelich has been a monster at home against RHP and Adam Wainwright doesn’t figure to slow that train down.
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