FREE PREMIUM: MLB DFS Picks - FanDuel & DraftKings Expert Survey: Monday, June 13th
Curious to know the top tournament target? Want to know our analysts’ favorite stacks? Below we answer lineup-building questions to help you prepare for the upcoming slate. NOTE: Expert Surveys are only posted for main slates.
MLB Expert Survey: Monday, June 13
Who is your favorite hitter for optimal lineups?
CheeseIsGood: Byron Buxton
Dean78904: Ronald Acuna
Stevietpfl: Vladimir Guerrero Jr
headChopper: Ronald Acuna
MrTuttle: Ronald Acuna
Who is your favorite hitter for large-field contests?
CheeseIsGood: Christian Walker
Dean78904: Juan Soto
Stevietpfl: Matt Olson
headChopper: Yordan Alvarez
MrTuttle: Paul Goldschmidt
Who is your favorite pitcher for optimal lineups?
CheeseIsGood: Aaron Nola
Dean78904: Aaron Nola
Stevietpfl: Aaron Nola
headChopper: Aaron Nola
MrTuttle: Aaron Nola
Who is your favorite pitcher for large-field contests?
CheeseIsGood: Sandy Alcantara
Dean78904: Sandy Alcantara
Stevietpfl: Alek Manoah
headChopper: Yu Darvish
MrTuttle: Alek Manoah (DK) / Lance Lynn (FD)
Who is your favorite salary saver for optimal lineups?
CheeseIsGood: Jordan Luplow
Dean78904: Teoscar Hernandez (FD) / Lane Thomas (DK)
Stevietpfl: Tyler O’Neill
headChopper: Juan Yepez
MrTuttle: Tyler O’Neill
Who is your favorite salary saver for large-field contests?
CheeseIsGood: Adam Duvall (FD) / Carson Kelly (DK)
Dean78904: Adam Duvall (FD) / Jose Miranda (DK)
Stevietpfl: Colin Moran
headChopper: Adam Duvall
MrTuttle: Bryan Reynolds (DK) / Jeremy Pena (FD)
Which player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
CheeseIsGood: Alek Manoah
Dean78904: Alek Manoah
Stevietpfl: Lance Lynn
headChopper: Byron Buxton
MrTuttle: Sandy Alcantara
What’s your under-the-radar home run call of the day?
CheeseIsGood: Kole Calhoun
Dean78904: Eugenio Suarez
Stevietpfl: Gary Sanchez
headChopper: Matt Chapman
MrTuttle: Eugenio Suarez
What is the top stack on the board for leverage in low-dollar GPPs?
CheeseIsGood: MIN
Dean78904: MIN
Stevietpfl: ARI
headChopper: SF
MrTuttle: ARI
Who are your five favorite stacks for large-field contests, ranked in order? (rank below in drop-down)
CheeseIsGood: 1) ATL 2) TOR 3) HOU 4) ARI 5) MIN
Dean78904: 1) ATL 2) TOR 3) HOU 4) MIN 5) SEA
Stevietpfl: 1) TOR 2) ATL 3) ARI 4) HOU 5) STL
headChopper: 1) TOR 2) ATL 3) STL 4) HOU 5) SFG
MrTuttle: 1) ATL 2) TOR 3) HOU 4) STL 5) MIN
Expert Survey Tournament Stack Rankings based on analyst responses above
1.TOR
2.ATL
3.HOU
4.ARI
5.STL
How do you plan to beat the field of opponents? What tactic or strategy will set you apart?
CheeseIsGood: With the exception of some Yu Darvish on DK and maybe Alex Wood on FD, I’m going to the top or the bottom for pitching. Nola and Alcantara are my spend ups (Manoah is great too), and then it’s a cheap Lance Lynn (don’t love) on FD or Mike Minor / Zack Thompson on DK, where I prefer Thompson. I see a very clear break in stacks with a top tier trio of Toronto, Atlanta and Houston. I don’t expect ownership to be concentrated enough to worry about tonight, so I’ll focus on my favorite 6-7 stacks in a majority of lineups
Dean78904: I tend to full stack less than most and I like plenty of offenses, so I can see myself coming up 3-3-2 / 3-3-1-1 type lineup combinations. The early plan is to be well over the field on Sandy Alcantara.
Stevietpfl: This slate is straightforward for me. I want to pay up for Nola, Manoah, and Alcantara as much as possible. If I’m saving some money on two pitcher sites, I’ll look at Zack Thompson. I like Toronto, Atlanta, and Arizona a lot tonight. I’ll be looking at lower owned stacks or one-offs to pair with those teams.
headChopper: I’m picking my 5 favorite stacks tonight and going all in on them
MrTuttle: Roster one-off’s and/or mini-stacks against some higher-owned pitchers. This is an easy strategy to pull off against the likes of Mike Minor on DraftKings but I also like the idea of using some MIA bats against Aaron Nola, PHI bats against Alcantara, and DET bats against Lynn (on FanDuel).
Who is your top overall pitcher (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
CheeseIsGood: Sandy Alcantara – Nola projects better, Nola is great, but Nola is also likely to be extremely chalky. I love Nola, but I’m just not sure that he’s the best pitcher in this game. The innings we’re seeing out of Alcantara are incredible, and there is not a single attackable point anywhere in Alcantara’s skill set. On top of that, while the perception should be a better matchup for Nola, the numbers say that this is an even matchup on both sides.
Dean78904: Aaron Nola – The Ks (29.3%) are good, the walk rate (3.4%) is elite, while the matchup is probably not as good as you’d suspect. It is possible it becomes more appealing from a K perspective (if either Miguel Rojas or Willians Astudillo sit) but for now Nola has a middle of the strikeout matchup vs a MIA team that is at least Top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, and ISO vs RHPs this season. I absolutely love opposing SP Sandy Alcantara in tournaments, but if you’re asking me my first pitcher in for cash games, it is Nola for me (especially on FD).
Stevietpfl: Aaron Nola – The Miami Marlins have been a lot better this season overall, but they’re still a low walk rate, high strikeout rate team. Nola has a 29.3% strikeout rate with a 3.4% walk rate on the season. He should face six to eight right-handed hitters tonight. He has a .299 wOBA with a .212 ISO and a 28.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He does generate groundballs at a much higher rate against righties as well.
headChopper: Alek Manoah. Top raw points guy is favored to be Aaron Nola. He’s great. But he’s also going to be near 40% on Fanduel. Manoah gets a good matchup with Baltimore. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in any start this season. His K rate has drifted down his last 6 starts with the exception of one outing, but he’s working deeper into games and that’s with a BABIP that’s far to high so he’s probably been a bit unlucky or he could have gone deeper. This Baltimore team is in the bottom 1/3 in a lot of significant hitting stats this season and the projected 6-9 hitters in the order tonight all strikeout at a high clip vs right-handed pitching.
MrTuttle: Alek Manoah – The answer for cash game lineups here is Aaron Nola. However, in tournaments Manoah is the guy I expect to be most overweight on. Manaoah has been a bit underwhelming in the strikeout department this season (22.3% strikeout rate) but I am still fairly confident we’re looking at a guy that will eventually settle into the upper-20’s before the season ends. Monday’s matchup for Manaoah is a good one against a projected Baltimore lineup that owns a 23.1% strikeout rate and .294 wOBA vs RHP over the last two seasons.
Who is your top overall hitter (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
CheeseIsGood: Byron Buxton – The best situation for Buxton (and teammate Gary Sanchez) is facing a low strikeout pitcher, where they can take advantage of their power without as much K risk. Chris Flexen has an extremely low 14.8% K rate, while allowing 44% fly balls and 48% hard hits to righties. Buxton’s .328 ISO shows his massive upside.
Dean78904: Ronald Acuna – I probably like it too much, but I just love rostering elite players that leadoff on the road. They are best positioned for a potentially precious 5th AB as they are guaranteed to hit in the 9th. While opposing SP Josiah Gray has good “stuff” he still gives up too much power (over 50% fly balls and 2 HR/9). If/when Acuna draws a walk he comes with an added bonus that most other boppers don’t in that he has wheels (11 SB in 32 games). Speaking of additional perks, an early peek at Kevin Roth’s Weather Edge Tool show a fire emoji in Nationals Park, thus boosting the odds of ATL (and Acuna) getting frisky tonight.
Stevietpfl: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Vlad’s hard-hit rate is down some this season, and his ground ball rate continues to be over 50%. With that said, I still think he’s the top hitter on the slate. Bradish has extreme reverse splits this season. He has a .471 wOBA with a .358 ISO against right-handed hitters. He’s also allowing 42% fly balls on 50% hard contact against righties. The Blue Jays are my favorite stack, and Vlad is my favorite hitter on the slate.
headChopper: Ronald Acuna. Atlanta sports on of the highest team totals on the slate today. Acuna is hitting the ball better lately. He has 3 home runs in the last 7 games and has only struck out 1 time in the last 5 games. Opposing pitcher, Josiah Gray, is a home run magnet. He has given up at least 1 home run in 75% of his starts this season.
MrTuttle: Ronald Acuna – This answer is a pure toss up between Acuna and Byron Buxton. While I had more exposure to Acuna in my initial run of lineups I expect to have plenty of exposure to both players.
What is your hot take of the day?
CheeseIsGood: Alcantara beats Nola 1-0 in a double complete game.
Dean78904: MN and SEA will be tied 7-7 in the 7th inning
Stevietpfl: Arizona hits 4+ HRs and scores 10+ runs.
headChopper: Detroit shells Lynn in his return and hits 3 homeruns in the first 2 innings.
MrTuttle: Miami hitter(s) crack GPP winning lineups while Aaron Nola does not.
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