MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, August 19
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, August 19th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
DraftKings and FanDuel are doing things quite differently tonight. Because of the hurricane about to hit the California coast, MLB is having the Angels, Dodgers, and Padres host doubleheaders today instead of dealing with dicier conditions tomorrow. DK decided to include Game 2 of each doubleheader on their 10-game main slate for tonight, while FD has excluded them. As a result, the slate looks quite different from site to site.
The doubleheader games aren’t even out of the woods as far as wet weather goes, so it’ll be interesting to see how they approach it considering rain delays are awfully rare in SoCal. Regardless, we’ve got a solid slate with a little bit of everything, including another White Sox-Rockies tilt at Coors Field. Let’s find some of the best MLB DFS picks and dig through some news and notes, shall we?
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- ARI/SD Game 2 is YELLOW/ORANGE as the rain starts to move in. Roth says the rain won’t be too heavy, so they may just be able to play through it. Considering they can’t play tomorrow, I’d imagine they’re more likely to do so than they otherwise may have been.
- TB/LAA and MIA/LAD are both GREEN/YELLOW with the potential for rain delays. Roth thinks the worst of the rain should hold east, but a delay in either game is a possibility.
- The CHW/COL Coors clash gets a YELLOW/GREEN with showers and potential storms in the area. They don’t generally panic about the weather in Colorado, so I won’t be scared away from stacking here based on the early report. It’s also hot here, with temps in the 90s around first pitch.
- NYM/STL features excellent hitting weather with hot, humid conditions. Ditto for PIT/MIN, which has temperatures in the low-90s at first pitch with winds blowing out to center between 8-10 mph.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Kyle Tucker was a scratch from the Astros lineup yesterday due to illness, so we’ll see if he’s feeling well enough to return tonight. Mauricio Dubon entered the lineup in Tucker’s spot last night.
- JD Martinez returned to the Dodgers’ lineup last night after missing Thursday’s contest with a sore groin. Given his nagging lower-body injuries of late, there’s a good chance he’ll hit the bench for one of their two games today.
- Eloy Jimenez is on the paternity list, which takes one big bat out of the White Sox lineup. Tim Anderson is also serving his suspension stemming from his kerfuffle with Jose Ramirez a couple of weeks ago. Lenyn Sosa should see more playing time with Anderson out, while we have Zach Remillard in tonight’s projected lineup.
- Anthony Santander departed last night’s game with a “possible injury,” which is about as vague as it gets. Ramon Urias came into the game in his place.
- CJ Cron went on the IL yesterday with back inflammation, and the Angels surprisingly called up rookie Nolan Schanuel to take over at first base in the interim.
- Jose Siri is dealing with a sprained pinky, though he did enter last night’s game as a pinch runner.
- Ryan Jeffers was a late scratch last night with back soreness. Christian Vazquez took over behind the plate. Matt Wallner left the same game with a hand injury, though X-rays were negative.
- Kyle Freeland and Jesse Scholtens are your Coors pitchers tonight, which puts the White Sox and Rockies back into play as obvious top stacks tonight. Chicago has the slightly higher implied run total, though I’m again inclined to side with the Rockies given the current state of the Chicago lineup. There isn’t really another standout stack out there tonight on a slate with plenty of quality pitching, though the Dodgers would be next on my list against Braxton Garrett. The Padres against Bryce Jarvis and the Arizona bullpen look decent enough, while the Orioles should garner some ownership against the notorious Ken Waldichuk.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- The player pool isn’t quite as deep over on FD tonight, though there’s still plenty to like. Framber Valdez ($11,100) looks like the SP1 in a world without a salary cap, but he doesn’t bring the strikeout upside we normally get with $11,000 pitchers. Still a strong play in all formats if you can afford him, of course. Kodai Senga ($10,900) and Logan Webb ($10,500) are tougher sells at their salaries in more difficult matchups, while Tanner Bibee ($9,800) gets a cushy matchup at home vs. Detroit. If you don’t want to pay all the way up for Valdez, Bibee looks like the best alternative.
- Sonny Gray ($9,400) and Mitch Keller ($8,400) are projecting for double-digit ownership as of this writing, though I don’t see much of a need. Waldichuk ($6,300) is cheap enough to consider in tournaments if you’re feeling particularly brave. The Coliseum is a pitcher-friendly venue, of course.
- Coors is the first stop for bats, as usual, with Luis Robert ($4,300) projecting as the top hitter by a hefty margin. He’ll have the platoon edge against Freeland, a middling lefty that won’t miss any bats. Even if I’m not stacking the White Sox, I’ll be getting to Robert even as a chalky one-off. Andrew Vaughn ($3,400) and Trayce Thompson ($2,700) are a couple more decent power righties worth targeting, while Elvis Andrus ($2,900) is a cheap leadoff bat.
Robert owns a sparkling .416 wOBA with a .278 ISO and a ridiculous 19.6% barrel rate vs. southpaws this season. It’s a glorious matchup, so I’ll be taking higher than 10.5 fantasy points for Robert on Underdog. If you’re new to the site, be sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Rockies went wild against Michael Kopech and friends last night, and the spot tonight against Scholtens is just as appealing. Charlie Blackmon ($2,900) and Brendan Rodgers ($2,800) are too cheap over here, while Ryan McMahon ($3,700) and Nolan Jones ($3,500) are worthwhile spends with the platoon advantage and power from the left side. Ezequiel Tovar ($3,300) seems to be in the midst of a breakout, and he’s a core play in stacks too.
- I’d expect considerable Coors ownership on FD given the smaller slate and lack of obvious alternatives. However, the Braves are usually worth a shout. Their matchup against Logan Webb is far from ideal, but this All-Star-laden lineup still has a healthy 4.88 implied run total. Matt Olson and Austin Riley have enough power and flyball ability to do damage against Webb and his groundball stuff, while Eddie Rosario is a viable third cog in any stack with a cheaper salary and the platoon advantage. If you can afford Ronald Acuna Jr. in your stack, I’ll certainly never tell you he’s a bad play, either.
- I don’t mind the Cardinals as a more contrarian stack against Kodai Senga, whose control has come and gone this year. We’ve also got favorable hitting conditions here, which helps. Tyler O’Neill ($2,700) and Willson Contreras ($2,800) are the standout point-per-dollar values, while Tommy Edman ($2,900) should lead off.
UPDATE: Glasnow started Game 1 of the doubleheader, so he’s off the board for tonight. Zach Eflin is a fine alternative at a cheaper salary. Patrick Sandoval gets the nod for the Angels, which takes Chase Silseth out of play after he started the first game.
- It’s easy to pair Valdez ($10,200) with Bibee ($8,200) given their more affordable salaries on DraftKings, and they’re both squarely in play in all formats. We do have more options on DK, however, with Tyler Glasnow ($10,800) slated to start Game 2 against the Halos. These 3 are likely to soak up most of the ownership.
- I’ll also mention Ken Waldichuk ($5,300) on DK at home against the Orioles. He’s quietly looked a lot better in his recent starts, and this is a guy that did come to Oakland as a highly-rated prospect. The BAT has him projected among the best raw-point options on the night, so it’s certainly a believer in his talent. It’s not for the faint of heart, but Waldi will crack my tournament player pool as a punt. If you can’t bring yourself to roster Waldichuk, Chase Silseth ($6,000) is a strong value in his own right at home against Tampa Bay.
- Luis Robert ($5,700) is in a tier of his own from a median projection standpoint, but Yoan Moncada is the only hitter in the White Sox lineup listed at $4,000 or above. You can pretty easily stack this team along with high-end pitching, so that should be a popular construction. The Rockies aren’t nearly as cheap on aggregate, though Brendan Rodgers ($3,300) and Brenton Doyle ($3,000) remain affordable enough.
- Mookie Betts ($6,600) and Will Smith ($5,700) are expensive standouts for LA against Braxton Garrett. We can also expect guys like Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez to draw starts here against the southpaw, though both have significant pinch-hit risk with Peralta and Heyward lurking on the bench. The Dodgers are always a strong stack if you can find a way to afford them, of course.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!