MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, June 17
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, June 17th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy Saturday! DraftKings and FanDuel are fairly aligned today with hefty 9-game slates getting underway at 4:05 ET. That’s where most of the action is, so that’s the slate we’ll be previewing in this space today. This slate isn’t nearly as heavy on pitching as last night’s was, while there are some solid stacking spots that could go a little overlooked.
There are plenty of solid MLB DFS picks to be found with 18 teams in action, so let’s dive right in.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- LAA/KC looks like the diciest game on the slate, but a YELLOW tag is rarely too concerning. Any delay could prove dicey for Griffin Canning or Mike Mayers on the mound, but those are hardly headliners on the pitching front today.
- STL/NYM is YELLOW/GREEN, but Roth notes he hopes to drop the risk as we get closer to the game. COL/ATL has a GREEN/YELLOW tag for the unlikely chance of a rain delay.
- DET/MIN and MIA/WAS have some cross-field winds, while PHI-OAK has winds blowing out to right around 10 mph. Oakland tends to be a more favorable hitting environment during the day than it is at night, but this is still the coolest game of the afternoon with temps around 70.
- COL/ATL and LAA/KC are both pushing 90 degrees, which should make for the best hitting weather of the afternoon.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Wade Miley is coming off the IL to start for the Brewers today after missing almost exactly a month with a lat issue. Miley’s one of the lowest-strikeout starters in the league, so he’s really just a large-field GPP value if you want to roll the dice here against the Pirates. He threw 4.2 innings in his last rehab start, so he should have a decent enough leash.
- The Phillies are calling up Cristopher Sanchez to start this afternoon in Oakland. He made a start for the Phillies in April against the Rockies, but he’s otherwise been toiling away in Triple-A all season. Sanchez is cheap ($5,700 DK, $7,100 FD) and pitching against the A’s, so we could see some ownership here today.
- The Blue Jays are rolling with another bullpen game today in the spot vacated by Alek Manoah. Trevor Richards will start and handle the first few innings here against Texas.
- Salvador Perez missed last night’s game after getting hit on the hand with a pitch in Wednesday’s contest. He’s not likely to be headed to the IL, so he could certainly return to the lineup at some point this weekend. Freddy Fermin is the starting catcher of choice if Perez sits again today against Canning. Michael Massey was scratched from the lineup last night with a finger laceration, which meant a spot start for Matt Duffy at second.
- Anthony Rendon was out of the Angels’ lineup on Friday after injuring his wrist on Thursday. Luis Rengifo took over at third base last night, though we do have Rendon projected to play the position and hit clean-up today against Mayers. Gio Urshela went on the IL with a fractured pelvis, which sounds…awful? Michael Stefanic came up to take his roster spot, though he didn’t start last night.
- The Reds scratched Stuart Fairchild from last night’s lineup with a sore neck, and he was ultimately replaced by Will Benson. We’ve got both projected to start and hit eighth and ninth, respectively, today against Brandon Bielak. Elly De La Cruz should be back in Cincy’s lineup after getting the night off yesterday.
- Kevin Smith has back soreness, which makes him questionable to suit up today against Sanchez. He’s currently projected to hit ninth.
- With a lefty on the mound for Miami, Stone Garrett should crack the Nats’ lineup in place of Corey Dickerson. Ditto for Ildemaro Vargas, which should send CJ Abrams to the bench.
- Nick Fortes is projected to start behind the plate for the Marlins today after Jacob Stallings got the nod yesterday.
- The Braves once again headline the slate as a stack with their massive 6.32 implied run total today against Connor Seabold. Ownership should congregate here, as usual, though the Angels and Marlins both have implied run totals north of 5. The Halos will face off against Mike Mayers, while the Marlins will draw Jake Irvin. Even in Oakland, the Phillies look like a strong stack against vulnerable right-hander James Kaprielian.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Bryce Elder ($10,600) is the most expensive pitcher on FD today in a home matchup against the Rockies. He’s pitched well and the matchup is fine, but I’m not dying to pay top dollar for a guy with a 20.8% K-rate. Lucas Giolito ($10,500) and Hunter Greene ($10,200) aren’t far behind, but they face tougher foes in the Mariners and Astros, respectively. Of the 3, I’m most interested in Greene against a watered-down version of the Houston lineup.
- Mitch Keller ($10,200) has struggled a bit lately, and his matchup at Milwaukee today is mostly neutral. Kodai Senga ($9,800) is a little enigmatic with his mixture of high walks and strikeouts, and it’s tough to know what to expect in a matchup against St. Louis. The Cardinals haven’t played well, but it’s not like there isn’t talent in the lineup. Logan Gilbert ($9,500) is probably the most palatable pitching option for single-entry GPPs and cash games at home against the White Sox, especially when you factor in the discount. If you want to go a little cheaper, Braxton Garrett ($8,900), Dane Dunning ($7,700), and Cristopher Sanchez ($7,100) are viable in tournaments.
- Connor Seabold is one of the weaker pitchers on the board today, and we have Ronald Acuna ($4,600) and Austin Riley ($3,000) coming in as two of the chalkiest bats on the slate. Riley’s just way too cheap for who he is, while we’ve also got affordable power in Michael Harris ($2,700), Marcell Ozuna ($3,000), and Ozzie Albies ($3,100). The salaries on FD make it pretty easy to stack Atlanta any which way here.
- Mike Mayers is striking out just 14.6% of lefties with a gaudy .429 wOBA allowed, so Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) looks like a standout in all formats, as usual. Matt Thaiss ($2,500) and Jared Walsh ($2,300) are two cheapies with the platoon edge in this lineup, while Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon, and Hunter Renfroe are all under $3,000. If the Braves are the most popular stack today, the Angels surely won’t be far behind.
- The Phillies stack isn’t nearly as cheap on aggregate, but Kyle Schwarber ($3,500) looks like a dong waiting to happen here against Kaprielian. You can say the same of Jorge Soler ($3,500) vs. Irvin. MJ Melendez ($2,700) and Willson Contreras ($2,700) are a couple of affordable catching options that stand out on their own. Daulton Varsho ($2,900) is a high-upside one-off I like against Dane Dunning. We’ve also got relatively affordable salaries on Bobby Witt ($3,300) and Salvador Perez ($3,000), though remember the latter is dealing with a hand injury.
- Soler has been absolutely mashing this season, and whether Irvin is really an MLB-caliber pitcher is up for debate. I love taking higher than 8.5 fantasy points for Soler this afternoon on Underdog. Remember to take advantage of our Underdog Fantasy promo code if you’re new to the site for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Keller ($10,800) is the headliner from a salary standpoint over on DraftKings, followed by Senga ($10,600), Gilbert ($10,300), and Elder ($10,000). Gilbert still looks the best over here against a constantly-underperforming White Sox offense, though I really don’t mind any of them if you’re playing multiple GPP lineups. Giolito ($9,600) and Greene ($9,000) look just as good if you’re hunting for more savings on the pitching front. Punting with Sanchez ($5,700) or Richards ($5,000) is fine in MME, as well.
- The Braves and Angels (Brangels?) look great, but the full stacks won’t be easy to afford alongside high-end pitching. Acuna, Ohtani, Olson, and Trout are all over $6,000, while Riley, Albies, and Murphy are all above $5,000. Ward ($3,900) and Renfroe ($4,000) are useful values in those Halos stacks. Walsh ($2,500) and Rosario ($3,600) can help you offset some of the more expensive hitters, as well.
- The Phillies also have 4 bats over $5,000, and I’d expect lower ownership to flock their way with the Braves and Angels in such good spots. Kaprielian looks like the worst pitcher on the planet when he’s not on his game, and we don’t often see teams in Oakland with implied run totals pushing 5.
- Soler ($4,800) and Jesus Sanchez ($2,900) drew core play tags on DK from STLCards in LineupHQ, and with good reason. Luis Arraez ($4,600) is really the only other semi-expensive hitter here, so the Marlins look like a stellar source of salary relief. Bryan De La Cruz and Garrett Cooper are two more sub-$4,000 hitters to consider, while they have 4 more bats under $3,000 in the projected lineup.
- The Royals’ lineup is downright ugly, and things will get worse if Perez misses his second straight game. This lineup is still littered with cheap bats, though, so it’s a playable secondary stack if you’re trying to prioritize expensive stuff elsewhere. Drew Waters ($2,200), Edward Olivares ($2,500), Maikel Garcia ($2,400), Michael Massey ($2,600), and MJ Melendez ($3,100) are all popping among the best point-per-dollar plays on DK this afternoon.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!