MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, May 6
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, May 6th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Saturday brings a short slate of afternoon baseball, but we’re here to talk about the 8-game main slate that gets underway at 7:10 ET. Just 3 of the 16 teams in action have implied run totals north of 5, but we luckily won’t have any dicey weather to navigate. One obvious ace at the top should be quite popular, but things will be otherwise pretty spread out from an ownership standpoint tonight.
This should be a fun slate, so let’s dive right into the news, notes and MLB DFS picks for tonight’s 8-gamer!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Nothing but GREEN on the weather report tonight, which is exactly what we love to see. We do have some elite hitting weather in OAK-KC, which should help these two subpar offenses considerably. Gametime temps are around 90 with gusty winds blowing out to center, which is a very obvious boost to bats.
- TEX-LAA has 10-15 mph winds blowing out to right-center field, which could be helpful for lefty power bats.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Ronald Acuna looked no worse for the wear after fouling a ball off his knee on Thursday. He started last night’s game in right field and played all 9 innings, so no worries with the knee at this point. Michael Harris, however, has missed consecutive games with his own sore knee. Sam Hilliard has been starting in his spot, though we do have Harris projected to get back in there tonight against Kyle Bradish.
- The Braves called up Braden Shewmake on Friday to play shortstop with Orlando Arcia on the injured list. Vaughn Grissom has been struggling at the plate, though Shewmake turned in an 0-4 performance in his MLB debut last night. Shewmake is projected to draw another start tonight.
- Max Muncy left last night’s game early with an illness. Dave Roberts said afterward he’s hoping Muncy will be feeling well enough to DH tonight against Blake Snell, but we’ll see. Chris Taylor replaced Muncy at third base last night. Trayce Thompson pinch-hit last night after missing a few games with an illness. Roberts said Thompson will start Saturday’s game.
- Alex Verdugo has missed back-to-back games with an illness of his own. Raimel Tapia started in his outfield spot and hit leadoff last night. We currently have Verdugo projected to return to the lineup tonight against Bailey Falter, but Tapia is a candidate to pick up another start if Verdugo is still under the weather.
- Austin Hays hasn’t played since Tuesday because of a finger bruise, and we have him projected to remain out of the lineup tonight against Spencer Strider in Atlanta. Ryan McKenna got the nod over Hays on Friday, though we have Kyle Stowers projected to start tonight. Stowers, a lefty, is a logical fill-in tonight with the platoon edge over the Braves’ right-hander.
- Chas McCormick is out on a rehab assignment, but Dusty Baker said after last night’s game that he won’t be ready to return to the Astros’ lineup in time for this weekend’s series in Seattle. Jake Meyers has been Houston’s primary centerfielder with McCormick on the IL with a back issue.
- Matt Carpenter is expected to serve as the Padres’ DH tonight against Dustin May after Nelson Cruz drew the nod last night vs. Clayton Kershaw. Adam Engel was activated off the IL yesterday after Jose Azocar went on it with elbow inflammation. We have San Diego rolling with the Tatis-Soto-Grisham starting outfield tonight, however. Brett Sullivan looks likely to start behind the plate in place of Austin Nola.
- Jackie Bradley and Nate Eaton will split most of the centerfield duties in KC with Kyle Isbel sidelined by a hamstring issue for the next 6 weeks or so. Maikel Garcia is another candidate to get some reps. We have Eaton and Garcia both projected to draw starts tonight when they take their swings against Ken Waldichuk at home.
- Speaking of the Royals, they grade out as a top offense tonight against the struggling southpaw. Kansas City’s 5.69 implied run total is pretty easily the highest on the board, and they should benefit from that aforementioned great hitting weather. The other teams with 5+ run totals are the Phillies (5.11) against Corey Kluber and the Diamondbacks (5.06) vs. MacKenzie Gore.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- This should be an interesting pitching slate, but there isn’t much drama on FanDuel. Spencer Strider ($11,400) is the most expensive pitcher on the board, and the top projected arm by a pretty healthy margin. Strider’s ridiculous 41% K-rate on the season is very easily the top mark on the slate, and he leads all MLB starters on the season in that regard. The Orioles are a talented offense (ask Max Fried), and they’re only whiffing 21.7% of the time so far this season vs. RHPs. I’m not sure the matchup really matters for a guy like this, however. Strider does have some wonky control at times (10.1% walks), and there are some alternatives if you’d rather not pay top-dollar for your SP on FanDuel.
- Blake Snell ($8,100), Alex Cobb ($8,300), and Reid Detmers ($8,600) are logical alternatives if you’re searching for savings. Snell looks like a pure GPP play against the Dodgers, as LA’s projected lineup has a walk rate of nearly 12% on the season against left-handed pitching. We know Snell can miss bats, but he can also miss the strike zone with the best of ‘em. Cobb (vs. MIL) and Detmers (vs. TEX) are slightly safer options in the same range. The Brewers (.307 wOBA, .163 ISO) aren’t the most menacing lineup, and they’re striking out 24% of the time against righties. They also hit the ball on the ground a good amount (44.9%), which plays right into Cobb’s skill set. The Rangers have plenty of right-anded power to throw at Detmers, but they’re another lineup with a lot of swing-and-miss (24.7% Ks vs. LHP).
- Kansas City being the top projected offense makes getting to Strider pretty easy. Five of the nine hitters in the Royals’ projected lineup will run you $2,800 or less on FanDuel. The only exceptions are Bobby Witt ($3,500), Salvador Perez ($3,400), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,300), and MJ Melendez ($3,000), but it’s not like any of them are egregiously pricey. Witt, Perez, and Edward Olivares all own ISOs of over .200 against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2022 campaign, while some may be scared away from Vinnie P. in the lefty-lefty matchup. While the power numbers aren’t great (.118 ISO), Pasquantino does still have a strong .383 wOBA vs. same-handed pitching since he made his MLB debut last year.
- The A’s paced last night’s slate with a 12-run outburst, and they’ll benefit from that same awesome hitting weather in Kansas City tonight. Their matchup against the supposedly good Brady Singer isn’t quite as appealing, but Singer hasn’t gotten on track this season. His ERA is sitting at a ghastly 8.49 and he’s been barreled up 12.8% of the time. The suddenly-powerful Brent Rooker ($3,900) is the only expensive hitter in the Oakland lineup. JJ Bleday, Ramon Laureano, and Ryan Noda all project pretty well down in the $3,000 range, while Esteury Ruiz seems to run every single time he gets on base. Last night’s outburst should make the A’s more popular tonight, but this is another advantageous spot.
- The Braves look interesting again tonight after struggling with Mean Dean Kremer on Friday. Kyle Bradish is essentially the same guy as a reverse-split right-hander that doesn’t miss many bats. Bradish has gotten some Ks vs. lefties this season (25%), but his strikeouts are non-existent against righties (12.9%). Austin Riley and Sean Murphy stand out right away as flyball righties against the groundballer, while Ronald Acuna rates out as one of the top hitters on the entire slate. I’ll take my chances with Matt Olson and his .278 ISO against any righty, while Michael Harris and Marcell Ozuna are useful values if they crack the lineup. Ozuna has been miserably bad for most of the season, but he’s shown signs of life over the past few games.
- On a Strider slate, we’ll probably need to dig for some value bats. In addition to those mentioned previously, guys like Kyle Schwarber ($3,100), Cal Stevenson ($2,000), Hunter Dozier ($2,400), Jose Abreu ($2,600), Joey Meneses ($2,600), and Joc Pederson ($3,100) rate out as strong cash game values over on FanDuel.
- Things are different on DraftKings, where we have to pair a couple of pitchers. Strider ($11,500) is still the clear-cut SP1 over here, but things get ugly pretty quickly after that. Snell ($8,800), Cobb ($9,000), and Detmers ($8,500) are again solid values on DK, though it looks like we’ll be spending a huge chunk of the cap on pitching as a result. You can add Nathan Eovaldi ($9,300) to the mix on DraftKings against the Angels, but that’s no breeze of a matchup. MacKenzie Gore is a high-strikeout lefty, but he’s $8,700 and facing a pesky Arizona lineup whiffing only 19.5% of the time vs. LHPs since the start of 2022. Punting with a $5,000 Tommy Henry against the Nationals is viable if you want to get out of here with the cheapest possible SP2, but that’s strictly a GPP route.
- The Royals as chalk sounds downright nauseating, but it’s difficult to argue with the spot. Waldichuk is talented, but he hasn’t shown many signs of harnessing it so far this season. Olivares ($3,000) is one of the best values on the slate on the hitting side, while you’ll have to spend a little more to get to Witt ($4,800) or Perez ($4,200). Witt is a major priority on this slate given his power/speed combo. Hunter Dozier ($2,000) and Maikel Garcia ($2,500) make it easier to afford those more expensive hitters as well. The Oakland side again looks great, with Ruiz ($2,700), Noda ($2,900), and Bleday ($2,500) all coming in far too cheap. Even Rooker ($3,700) is more affordable here than he is on FD.
- The Phillies project as a top stack at home against Kluber, but the salaries are prohibitive. If we’re paying for Strider and an SP2 in the $9,000 range, you really can’t stack the Phillies’ good stuff. All of Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper are up over $5,000, so we may have to settle for mini-stacking Philadelphia. Even lower-in-the-order lefties like Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh won’t come cheap.
- Dustin May throws hard, but he’s generally overrated as a guy that doesn’t rack up as many strikeouts as you might think. The Padres are a compelling stack as a result here, and it was good to see Fernando Tatis go deep twice on Friday night after struggling since his return. Salaries are again an issue for guys like Tatis and Juan Soto, but you can find savings here with Trent Grisham ($3,500), Jake Cronenworth ($3,800), and Matt Carpenter ($3,100). As a bonus, I like going more than 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs for Soto on Underdog tonight. If you’re new to the site, check out our Underdog Fantasy promo code.
- More value bats to consider on the DK side for cash games are Alex Call ($2,600), Robbie Grossman ($2,500), LaMonte Wade ($3,100), and Marcell Ozuna ($2,400).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck tonight!