MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/13/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
We have one game in serious danger today as CHW/DET will have a powerful storm line moving in during the game making it unlikely to finish if they even try to start the game so for now consider this game doubtful and all players too risky to target on a 10-game slate UPDATE – storm looking to arrive later so less risk of PPD or delays. ATL/WAS is the only other game with any chance of rain but at worst it would just be a small delay at some point but this is still a game to target hitters in as it will be very hot and humid and PIT/STL is also great hitting weather with winds blowing out at 10-15mph.
KCR/SFG will see ~10mph out to center while SDP/CHC is looking at similar wind strength from right to left. BAL/TOR, HOU/TEX, CIN/ARI, and MIN/SEA are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for ATL/WSH are +7.3% while total runs for MIA/PHI are -3.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Brandon Belt is getting very close to a return and there’s a possibility he’s in there today while Matt Chapman will miss another game with his wrist soreness. Avisail Garcia remains out with his left hand injury (MRI today) so Bryan De La Cruz will continue to start and Garrett Cooper is back after a short covid IL stint. The Cardinals have a doubleheader tomorrow so we could see some guys get a day off today as Goldschmidt and Carlson sat yesterday so keep an eye on that lineup as Tyler ONeill is one of my favorite value plays if he’s in.
The Blue Jays are my top stack today at home against Bradish as they have by far the highest team total currently around 5.6 and are very affordable on FanDuel. The Braves are my next favorite stack hitting in 80+ degree weather against the righty Gray and are also very affordable on FanDuel with a few guys pretty affordable on DraftKings. The Astros and Cardinals come in as my next favorite stacks sitting at team totals both around 5 currently and for GPP’s I like taking a chance on MIN, SEA, ARI, and SFG.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m really hoping Tyler ONeill plays today as there’s a chance he sits before tomorrow’s doubleheader because he’s just $2,700 and he and Teoscar Hernandez (also $2,700) would be my top value plays and the first guys I lock in. Brendan Donovan ($2,500), Santiago Espinal ($2,800) and Lourdes Gurriel ($2,500) are a good way to get more cheap exposure to STL and TOR and if you want a couple very cheap leadoff hitters I’d consider Jordan Luplow ($2,500) and Jesse Winker ($2,700). The Braves have some of the best hitting weather today and I want at least a couple of their bats in my main build with Ronald Acuna ($4,300) always being their best option but for less salary I love the prices of Matt Olson ($3,500) and Ozzie Albies ($3,200) likely hitting 4th and 5th. Some more FD bats I like for the price include Luis Arraez ($3,200), Max Kepler ($2,900), Luis Gonzalez ($2,800), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,100), Ketel Marte ($3,200), Christian Walker ($3,100), and Kole Calhoun ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings Tyler ONeill will be my top value play for just $3,300 if he doesn’t rest today and Lourdes Gurriel is right there with him at just $3,500. Luplow ($3,500) and Winker ($4,000) remain strong options hitting leadoff but my favorite leadoff hitter is Luis Gonzalez at just $2,800. For the Braves I’m looking at Matt Olson ($4,700), Ozzie Albies ($4,800), and Dansby Swanson ($5,300) as Ronald Acuna is crazy expensive at $6k along with most of the Blue Jays bats so you will need some serious value to get a couple of them in your lineup and guys like Brendan Donovan ($2,900), Lane Thomas ($3,000), Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900), Carson Kelly ($3,100), Ezequiel Duran ($2,400), and the previously mentioned Luis Gonzalez ($2,800) are all strong options. A few other DK bats I really like today are Christian Walker ($3,600), Mike Yastrzemski ($4,100), Luke Voit ($3,500), and Michael Harris ($3,100).
For pitching on FD I’m between Aaron Nola ($10.2k) and Alek Manoah ($10.8k) as the SP1 but I’m giving the slight edge to Manoah as he should get more run support as Nola goes against the tough Sandy Alcantara who is a very strong GPP option but if you need the $600 in salary savings Nola is still an excellent play. I have to mention Lance Lynn on FD too at just $5,500 as the weather looks to be better now and if he gets 80-90 pitches he could crush that salary. On DK I will try to fit both Nola and Manoah but if you need more savings I’d go down to Yu Darvish at $8,400, Alex Wood at $8,300, or Merrill Kelly at $7,900 and if you need extreme salary savings then Mike Minor ($4,700) and Zack Thompson ($4,300) are your guys.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn