FREE PREMIUM: MLB DFS Picks - FanDuel & DraftKings Expert Survey: Friday, August 5th
Curious to know the top tournament target? Want to know our analysts’ favorite stacks? Below we answer lineup-building questions to help you prepare for the upcoming slate. NOTE: Expert Surveys are only posted for main slates.
MLB Expert Survey: Friday, August 5
Who is your favorite hitter for optimal lineups?
CheeseIsGood: Brandon Lowe (FD) / Yordan Alvarez (DK)
STLCardinals84: Brandon Lowe (FD) / Yordan Alvarez (DK)
eys819: Yordan Alvarez
fathalpert: Brandon Lowe
boggslite: Yordan Alvarez
Who is your favorite hitter for large-field contests?
CheeseIsGood: Kyle Schwarber
STLCardinals84: Rafael Devers
eys819: Manny Machado
fathalpert: Kyle Schwarber
boggslite: Kyle Schwarber
Who is your favorite pitcher for optimal lineups?
CheeseIsGood: Dylan Cease
STLCardinals84: Dylan Cease
eys819: Robbie Ray
fathalpert: Robbie Ray
boggslite: Corey Kluber
Who is your favorite pitcher for large-field contests?
CheeseIsGood: Robbie Ray
STLCardinals84: Eric Lauer
eys819: Eric Lauer
fathalpert: Eric Lauer
boggslite: Robbie Ray
Who is your favorite salary saver for optimal lineups?
CheeseIsGood: Vinnie Pasquantino
STLCardinals84: Vinnie Pasquantino
eys819: Vinnie Pasquantino
fathalpert: Vinnie Pasquantino
boggslite: Vinnie Pasquantino
Who is your favorite salary saver for large-field contests?
CheeseIsGood: Michael Massey
STLCardinals84: Bryan Reynolds (FD) / Nick Castellanos (DK)
eys819: Nick Castellanos
fathalpert: David Peralta
boggslite: Nick Castellanos
Which player are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
CheeseIsGood: Juan Soto
STLCardinals84: Christian Yelich
eys819: Aaron Judge
fathalpert: Framber Valdez
boggslite: Aaron Judge
What’s your under-the-radar home run call of the day?
CheeseIsGood: Darick Hall
STLCardinals84: Andrew McCutchen
eys819: Adley Rutschman
fathalpert: Christian Walker
boggslite: Kolten Wong
What is the top stack on the board for leverage in low-dollar GPPs?
CheeseIsGood: NYY
STLCardinals84: SDP
eys819: HOU
fathalpert: MIL
boggslite: BOS
Who are your five favorite stacks for large-field contests, ranked in order? (rank below in drop-down)
CheeseIsGood: 1) HOU 2) NYY 3) PHI 4) KCR 5) MIL
STLCardinals84: 1) HOU 2) PHI 3) MIL 4) SDP 5) BOS
eys819: 1) HOU 2) MIL 3) PHI 4) TBR 5) BOS
fathalpert: 1) TBR 2) HOU 3) KC 4) MIL 5) PHI
boggslite: 1) HOU 2) MIL 3) TBR 4) PHI 5) BOS
Expert Survey Tournament Stack Rankings based on analyst responses above
1. HOU
2. MIL
3. PHI
4. TBR
5. KCR
How do you plan to beat the field of opponents? What tactic or strategy will set you apart?
CheeseIsGood: This is the most jumbled offensive slate we’ve seen in a long time. I cannot draw any reasonable lines of disctinction with either stacks or individual bats. I would prefer to stay focused on the pitching side in order to spread out far and wide with the bats. Robbie Ray and Dylan Cease are going to be chalk, and while they are not without risk, I can find more reasons to avoid everyone else.
STLCardinals84: Stack the Padres. All the signs seem to indicate that Tony Gonsolin got EXTREMELY lucky during the first half of the season. His numbers have quickly started to regress over the past month. The new look San Diego offense is much more dangerous with Soto and Bell in the heart of the order, and they could really surprise at low ownership this evening.
eys819: The chalk pitcher pairing will be Cease and Ray, so I will make sure not to play that in any lineups. Most of my lineups will pair one of them with Lauer, Sandoval or Gibson. On FD, I will go underweight on Ray and overweight on the other four. Nothing stands out as chalky with bats, so I am fine just spreading exposure across my favorite stacks.
fathalpert: Target matchups over name recognition. This is a weird slate because we have Sean Manaea, Tony Gonsolin, Framber Valdez and Nestor Cortes. Yet none of them really appeal to me despite their name recognition because of their matchups and elevated price tags. Instead, I find myself willing to target Corey Kluber against the Tigers and Eric Lauer against the Reds. If we lose some games due to weather, I don’t even mind throwing in Jose Berrios, Tyler Mahle and maybe even Madison Bumgarner into my player pool. I will do my best to get up to Dylan Cease when possible, but if salary is too tight, I’m going to be taking some chances on these second-tier pitchers.
boggslite: On a slate where nothing really stands out from both a hitting and pitching perspective, I’ll be playing the matchups and spreading out my exposure as much as possible. I’ll also target some cheaper pitching options to save salary to load up on bats.
Who is your top overall pitcher (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
CheeseIsGood: Dylan Cease – With salary considered, Robbie Ray is the easier SP1, but Cease is so much more trustable that I would prefer to spend up a little extra for the guy who hasn’t allowed more than one run in a start since May. There has absolutely been a ton of good luck involved, but this is a high upside pitcher with obvious talent in a good matchup.
STLCardinals84: Dylan Cease – The last time he allowed more than one run in a start was May 24th. That’s well over two months of non-stop quality outings. He has also walked two or fewer in each of his last three starts, and the occasional command hiccup had been the only thing holding him back. We know the strikeouts will be there, and the Texas lineup is very beatable once you get past Semien and Seager at the top. Cease is my SP1 by a fairly comfortable margin tonight.
eys819: Robbie Ray – The price has come down because he has been blown up by Houston in each of his last two starts. Before those two hiccups, Ray had strung together seven outstanding starts with a 33.5% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. He allowed only 24 hits and seven runs over 46.1 innings in those starts. Today, he gets a matchup against a weak Angels team that projects to have seven hitters in the lineup who have struck out over 20% of the time vs LHP.
fathalpert: Robbie Ray – Robbie Ray chalk is scary, especially considering he’s coming off back-to-back duds. But when looking at the slate as a whole, Ray’s combination of matchup and price cover up his recent struggles. To be fair, his last two duds did come at the hands of the Astros, who have the second lowest K% in the Majors vs lefties. In comparison, Ray faces an Angels team tonight that has the 5th highest K% against lefties. The Angels also rank 27th in team ISO vs lefties, so they not only strikeout a ton but lack pop against southpaws. As scary as it is, I’m willing to eat the Robbie Ray chalk tonight and pray it doesn’t burn me.
boggslite: Corey Kluber – Fresh off a season-high ten strikeout performance against a pesky CLE team in his last game, Kluber will look to improve upon that outing tonight against the lowly Tigers. Looking at PlateIQ, the projected Tigers lineup is a sea of red with low walks and high strikeouts. This bodes well for the veteran Kluber, who has pitched better than his numbers indicate this season and should get plenty of run support to cruise to an easy victory at a very reasonable price.
Who is your top overall hitter (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
CheeseIsGood: Kyle Schwarber – After being mega-chalk last night, Schwarber should be a bit more lost in the mix tonight against a higher strikeout pitcher in Josiah Gray. There is more risk against Gray, but most of his strikeouts come against righties with a more moderate 24.7% K rate, along with high walks and a ton of fly balls to lefties. Schwarber should see a mix of strikeout, walk, fly ball against Gray, and more power upside against the right-handed Nationals bullpen.
STLCardinals84: This call is site dependent for me tonight. On FanDuel, Brandon Lowe is my favorite play on the slate. He has eligibility at a weak second base position, has strong splits against RHP, is priced at just $3,000, and faces a low strikeout, below average RHP this evening. On DraftKings, I’ll likely opt for spending up for Yordan Alvarez. Despite all the attention that Aaron Judge is getting this year, Alvarez still leads the league with a 1.066 OPS, and he has 30 homers of his own despite missing some time in the first half.
eys819: Yordan Alvarez – He has been one of the very best hitters in baseball this season and has absolutely destroyed right-handed pitching with a .387 ISO and .467 wOBA. He faces a young righty making his MLB debut who only has 2 starts above AA ball. Gaddis is also an extreme fly ball pitcher who allowed 47% fly balls in AA and 56% fly balls in two AAA starts. Expect some loud contact in the air tonight for Yordan.
fathalpert: Brandon Lowe – Lowe is my favorite 2nd baseman on this slate as he’s facing Bryan Garcia, who allowed 10 homers in 39.1 innings last season. Garcia was solid in his last outing but I do like how Lowe and the Rays stack lines up tonight assuming Garcia regresses closer to his career numbers. Lowe is especially appealing to me at $3K on FanDuel.
boggslite: Yordan Alvarez – Entering tonight’s game with a league leading .467 wOBA and .387 ISO against RHP this season, Alvarez feasts on right-handed pitching. Tonight he’ll be taking on an unproven righty on the road with favorable hitting weather in CLE, making Alvarez my top overall option on the slate.
What is your hot take of the day?
CheeseIsGood: Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey both HR in the 1st inning.
STLCardinals84: Bryan Reynolds hits two home runs.
eys819: Eric Lauer strikes out eight Reds in six shutout innings.
fathalpert: Tyler Mahle is a top 4 scoring pitcher on this slate as he dazzles in his Twins debut.
boggslite: HOU scores 10+ runs and hits 5+ HRs.
Comments
Cleveland blows up Valdez j-ram Naylor and Jones hit hrs.