MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 27th - Page Two

NY Yankees at Texas – 8:05 PM EST

NY Yankees Texas
nyyankeesmlb Ivan Nova texasmlb Matt Harrison
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY (-117) 9
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.31 0.794 0.348 0.083 SP vs. Left 0.3 0.714 0.322 0.227
SP vs. Right 0.281 0 0.421 0.172 SP vs. Right 0.297 0 0.365 0.076
Batter Splits NYY BvP NYY vs L Batter Splits TEX BvP TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova : FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,600

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 50.1 — SIERA: 4.66 — ERA: 5.36 — K%: 12.3% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 1.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.0 — SIERA: 4.31 — ERA: 4.30 — K%: 14.3% — BB%: 8.2% — HR/9: 1.6

Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 11)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 16)

Analysis: Nova takes the mound for the Yankees tonight, as they square off against the Rangers in Arlington. Nova has been a serviceable starter this season, but he has a very low strikeout rate, which limits his fantasy appeal. He should be avoided tonight against the Rangers, who are ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and fourth in team wOBA over the last 14 days of play. There is more risk than potential reward with Nova tonight in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.

Pitcher Rating:41.9


Matt Harrison : FD: $5,100 — DK: $4,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 27.1 — SIERA: 5.62 — ERA: 4.61 — K%: 10.2% — BB%: 12.5% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 10.0 — SIERA: 5.71 — ERA: 5.40 — K%: 6.8% — BB%: 9.1% — HR/9: 0.9

New York Yankees Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 6)
Pitchers per PA: 3.87 (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Harrison is the lowest-rated pitcher on the board tonight. In his 27 innings over the last two seasons, he has a 5.62 SIERA with a walk rate that is higher than his strikeout rate. Not only is he a below-average major league starter, but he also draws one of the worst matchups on the board. The Yankees are ranked fifth in wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:24.8

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are the top offense to target tonight, as they draw a terrific matchup against Matt Harrison in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Harrison has given up a .322+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate over the last two seasons, but he gives up a considerably higher wOBA to right-handed hitters. Don’t be afraid to load up on Yankees’ bats in both cash games and tournaments tonight.

Elite Plays:

Alex Rodriguez : FD: $4,000 — DK: $5,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.423 — ISO: 0.341 — wRC+: 174
Last 14 Days: PA: 37 — wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.471 — wRC+: 177

Chris Young : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,200

Position Eligibility: FD: P — DK: P
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 194 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 141
Last 14 Days: PA: 17 — wOBA: 0.491 — ISO: 0.375 — wRC+: 222

Secondary Plays:

Mark Teixeira : FD: $3,900 — DK: $5,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 263 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.166 — wRC+: 110
Last 14 Days: PA: 36 — wOBA: 0.546 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 260

Carlos Beltran : FD: $2,500 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 233 — wOBA: 0.259 — ISO: 0.135 — wRC+: 59
Last 14 Days: PA: 18 — wOBA: 0.244 — ISO: 0.063 — wRC+: 49

Chase Headley : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 253 — wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 94
Last 14 Days: PA: 34 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.129 — wRC+: 137


Texas

The Rangers are a very sneaky offense to target tonight, as they square off against the low-strikeout pitcher, Ivan Nova. The Rangers have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last two weeks and they get to play at home in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play from this Rangers’ lineup.

Elite Plays:

Rougned Odor : FD: $4,100 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 444 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.181 — wRC+: 107
Last 14 Days: PA: 43 — wOBA: 0.515 — ISO: 0.462 — wRC+: 236

Secondary Plays:

Prince Fielder : FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,500

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 362 — wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.139 — wRC+: 139
Last 14 Days: PA: 38 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.121 — wRC+: 100

Mitch Moreland : FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 353 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 124
Last 14 Days: PA: 24 — wOBA: 0.228 — ISO: 0.043 — wRC+: 34

Shin-Soo Choo : FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 602 — wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 116
Last 14 Days: PA: 27 — wOBA: 0.402 — ISO: 0.292 — wRC+: 157

Adrian Beltre : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 679 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 113
Last 14 Days: PA: 40 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.086 — wRC+: 103


Cincinnati at St. Louis – 8:15 PM EST

Cincinnati St. Louis
cincinnatimlb Raisel Iglesias stlouismlb Lance Lynn
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL (-200) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.359 0.885 0.388 0.153 SP vs. Left 0.234 0.686 0.307 0.187
SP vs. Right 0.2 0.698 0.307 0.301 SP vs. Right 0.237 0.632 0.282 0.259
Batter Splits CIN BvP CIN vs R Batter Splits STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Raisel Iglesias : FD: $6,300 — DK: $5,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 34.2 — SIERA: 3.80 — ERA: 5.45 — K%: 22.2% — BB%: 8.2% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 10.0 — SIERA: 3.98 — ERA: 6.30 — K%: 21.3% — BB%: 8.5% — HR/9: 1.8

St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 9)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 7)
Pitchers per PA: 3.78 (Rank: 19)

Analysis: Iglesias hasn’t had much success in his brief time in the majors, posting a 5.45 ERA in just over 34 innings of work. He does have good strikeout potential, but he needs to string together a few quality outings before we target him in daily fantasy. He can safely be avoided tonight against the Cardinals, who are ranked 11th in team wOBA and ninth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:52.2


Lance Lynn : FD: $9,500 — DK: $11,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 313.0 — SIERA: 3.64 — ERA: 2.76 — K%: 22.7% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.0 — SIERA: 2.73 — ERA: 2.70 — K%: 29.5% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 0.6

Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 7)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 9) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 14)
Pitchers per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 24)

Analysis: If I had to guess which pitcher will have the highest level of ownership tonight, I’d guess Lynn. He is a large favorite, he’s pitching at home, and he comes into tonight’s start in great form. Over the last month of play, Lynn has a 2.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.5%. His matchup against the Reds isn’t ideal though, as Cincinnati is ranked 15th in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Lynn may be the safest cash game play tonight, but that says more about the other pitching options than it does about Lynn.

Pitcher Rating:92.5

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are coming off of a huge offensive series against the Rockies, but Busch Stadium is nothing close to the same park as Coors Field. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against Lance Lynn, who has held left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA over the last two seasons. Red-hot Joey Votto is in play here, but he’s a secondary option at first base tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 499 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 146
Last 14 Days: PA: 47 — wOBA: 0.593 — ISO: 0.297 — wRC+: 289


St. Louis

The Cardinals are the largest favorites on the schedule tonight, as they take on Raisel Iglesias at home. The left-handed hitters have the edge in this matchup, as Iglesias has given up a .388 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate over the last two seasons. Jason Heyward, Kolten Wong, and Matt Carpenter are all in play here.

Elite Plays:

Jason Heyward : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,200

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 753 — wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 124
Last 14 Days: PA: 35 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.129 — wRC+: 152

Secondary Plays:

Kolten Wong : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 637 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 103
Last 14 Days: PA: 44 — wOBA: 0.225 — ISO: 0.098 — wRC+: 39

Matt Carpenter : FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 761 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.132 — wRC+: 127
Last 14 Days: PA: 35 — wOBA: 0.205 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 25


Arizona at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST

Arizona Seattle
arizonamlb Robbie Ray seattlemlb Mike Montgomery
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA (-123) 7
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.287 0.76 0.327 0.184 SP vs. Left 0.255 0.721 0.321 0.226
SP vs. Right 0.264 0.781 0.339 0.182 SP vs. Right 0.222 0.642 0.284 0.154
Batter Splits ARI BvP ARI vs L Batter Splits SEA BvP SEA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Ray : FD: $6,900 — DK: $8,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 88.1 — SIERA: 4.17 — ERA: 4.48 — K%: 18.2% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 29.1 — SIERA: 3.59 — ERA: 3.68 — K%: 22.0% — BB%: 4.9% — HR/9: 0.0

Seattle Mariners Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 15)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 15)
Pitchers per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 4)

Analysis: Ray has pitched well over the last month of play, posting a 3.59 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 22.0%. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Mariners, but unfortunately, he is facing them at the wrong time. The Mariners’ offense has come alive in the last few weeks and they are no longer an opponent that we can regularly pick on when it comes to starting pitching. Ray makes an intriguing tournament option, but he can be avoided in cash games.

Pitcher Rating:59.5


Michael Montgomery : FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 63.2 — SIERA: 4.29 — ERA: 3.25 — K%: 17.1% — BB%: 8.0% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 4.40 — ERA: 4.76 — K%: 18.4% — BB%: 10.4% — HR/9: 1.6

Arizona Diamondbacks Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 13)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 24.5% (Rank: 27)
Pitchers per PA: 3.69 (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Montgomery has been an average pitcher this season, posting a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.1%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Diamondbacks, who are ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this seasons. Montgomery seems a bit overpriced for the matchup, which is why I will be avoiding him in all league formats tonight at home.

Pitcher Rating:58.3

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks draw a decent matchup tonight against Michael Montgomery. While Montgomery has been a reverse-splits pitcher this season, I still give the edge to the right-handed hitters tonight. Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock are both in play, but they are secondary fantasy options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt : FD: $4,700 — DK: $6,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 187 — wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 205
Last 14 Days: PA: 44 — wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.226 — wRC+: 187

A.J. Pollock : FD: $4,000 — DK: $5,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 142 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.252 — wRC+: 148
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.139 — wRC+: 150


Seattle

The Mariners draw a pretty favorable matchup tonight against Robbie Ray. While he has been a much better pitcher recently, he has given up a .327+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate over the last two seasons. Nelson Cruz is one of the top hitters at any position tonight, while red-hot Robinson Cano and leadoff man Austin Jackson are also in play.

Elite Plays:

Nelson Cruz : FD: $3,800 — DK: $5,000

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 248 — wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.292 — wRC+: 192
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.275 — wRC+: 175

Secondary Plays:

Robinson Cano : FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 365 — wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.083 — wRC+: 89
Last 14 Days: PA: 43 — wOBA: 0.485 — ISO: 0.385 — wRC+: 224

Austin Jackson : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 271 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.109 — wRC+: 109
Last 14 Days: PA: 46 — wOBA: 0.274 — ISO: 0.023 — wRC+: 75


Milwaukee at San Francisco – 10:15 PM EST

Milwaukee San Francisco
milwaukeemlb Kyle Lohse sanfranciscomlb Chris Heston
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SFG (-169) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.259 0.765 0.333 0.169 SP vs. Left 0.268 0.741 0.325 0.145
SP vs. Right 0.263 0.732 0.32 0.173 SP vs. Right 0.219 0.581 0.261 0.241
Batter Splits MIL BvP MIL vs R Batter Splits SFG BvP SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Lohse : FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 311.1 — SIERA: 4.08 — ERA: 4.54 — K%: 17.1% — BB%: 5.4% — HR/9: 1.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.1 — SIERA: 4.41 — ERA: 6.26 — K%: 15.3% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 2.0

San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 18.1% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.342 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 19)
Pitchers per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Lohse has been one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball this season. His SIERA suggests that he hasn’t been quite that bad, but until he can prove that he can keep the ball in the park, he can be avoided in all league formats. He draws a very tough matchup tonight against the Giants, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:42.3


Chris Heston : FD: $7,600 — DK: $9,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 124.1 — SIERA: 3.44 — ERA: 3.26 — K%: 19.6% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 0.4
Last 30 Days: IP: 27.1 — SIERA: 3.83 — ERA: 1.32 — K%: 16.3% — BB%: 9.2% — HR/9: 0.0

Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 20)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.333 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 9)
Pitchers per PA: 3.71 (Rank: 27)

Analysis: Heston is one of those pitchers that seems to either have a dominant outing or get shelled. There hasn’t been a whole lot of middle ground since he threw his no-hitter against the Mets. Heston is a sizable favorite tonight at home, but the matchup against the Brewers is less than ideal. Milwaukee has been one of the best offenses in baseball over the last month of play and they continue to climb the rankings in team wOBA and strikeout rate against both left and right-handed pitching. I could see him being a popular play tonight, but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid with this matchup.

Pitcher Rating:77.2

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have one of the lowest team totals on the board tonight. While that is never promising, that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid their offense completely. Chris Heston has given up a .325 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season, which brings both Gerardo Parra and Scooter Gennett into play.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Gerardo Parra : FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 741 — wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 107
Last 14 Days: PA: 31 — wOBA: 0.452 — ISO: 0.214 — wRC+: 191

Scooter Gennett : FD: $2,800 — DK: $2,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 602 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.152 — wRC+: 112
Last 14 Days: PA: 26 — wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.043 — wRC+: 147


San Francisco

The Giants draw a favorable matchup tonight against Kyle Lohse, who has given up 23 home runs this season. That is second only to Kyle Kendrick of the Rockies. The Giants are a sneaky offense to target tonight and their hitters are very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Elite Plays:

Brandon Belt : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 447 — wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.232 — wRC+: 141
Last 14 Days: PA: 39 — wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 124

Angel Pagan : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,100

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 542 — wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.073 — wRC+: 96
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.026 — wRC+: 91

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 719 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 147
Last 14 Days: PA: 36 — wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.031 — wRC+: 153

Joe Panik : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 518 — wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.109 — wRC+: 122
Last 14 Days: PA: 42 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.057 — wRC+: 137


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious