MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 14th - Page Two

Houston at Texas – 8:05 PM EST

Houston Texas
houstonmlb Scott Kazmir texasmlb Cole Hamels
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX (-125) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.261 0.679 0.301 0.187 SP vs. Left 0.22 0.642 0.291 0.206
SP vs. Right 0.218 0.625 0.279 0.222 SP vs. Right 0.239 0.659 0.29 0.253
Batter Splits HOU BvP HOU vs L Batter Splits TEX BvP TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Kazmir : FD: $9,700 — DK: $8,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 348.2 — SIERA: 3.72 — ERA: 3.07 — K%: 21.5% — BB%: 7.0% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 3.77 — ERA: 4.45 — K%: 22.4% — BB%: 7.2% — HR/9: 1.3

Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% (Rank: 10)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Kazmir has been in decent form recently, posting a 3.77 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.4%. While he has to pitch in a hitter-friendly ballpark tonight, he does draw a favorable matchup against the Rangers, who are ranked 19th in team wOBA and 22nd in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Use Kazmir as a low-owned tournament option tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 69.0


Cole Hamels : FD: $10,600 — DK: $10,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 375.0 — SIERA: 3.34 — ERA: 3.02 — K%: 24.5% — BB%: 7.3% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.0 — SIERA: 3.74 — ERA: 2.89 — K%: 24.4% — BB%: 9.6% — HR/9: 0.0

Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 22.6% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.347 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 21.4% (Rank: 25)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Hamels has pitched well recently, posting a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.4% over the last month of play. He draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Astros, but they do have a lot of power in their lineup. With Clayton Kershaw in such a great spot, Hamels should only be used in tournaments.

Pitcher Rating: 84.7

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros draw a difficult matchup against Cole Hamels, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA over the last two seasons. Carlos Correa and Evan Gattis are in play, but they are both secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Correa : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.278 — wRC+: 153
Last 30 Days: PA: 94 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 104

Evan Gattis : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 249 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 101 — wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.258 — wRC+: 124


Texas

The Rangers draw a tough matchup against Scott Kazmir, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA. Adrian Beltre is the only Rangers’ bat on my radar in this one. He is still too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Beltre : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 325 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.184 — wRC+: 137
Last 30 Days: PA: 117 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 95

Mike Napoli : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 284 — wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.224 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 37 — wOBA: 0.411 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 160


Oakland at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EST

Oakland Chicago White Sox
oaklandmlb Sonny Gray whitesoxmlb John Danks
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK (-120) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.21 0.599 0.27 0.213 SP vs. Left 0.23 0.689 0.305 0.125
SP vs. Right 0.225 0.584 0.261 0.194 SP vs. Right 0.28 0.817 0.355 0.166
Batter Splits OAK BvP OAK vs L Batter Splits CHW BvP CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Sonny Gray : FD: $10,200 — DK: $11,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 405.2 — SIERA: 3.58 — ERA: 2.75 — K%: 20.5% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.0 — SIERA: 3.91 — ERA: 4.32 — K%: 14.8% — BB%: 6.5% — HR/9: 1.8

Chicago White Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% (Rank: 4)
Pitches per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 20)

Analysis: Gray has not been in good form lately, posting a 3.91 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 14.8%. He is a risky play at this point, especially given the fact that his recent slump hasn’t been accompanied by a price reduction. Even in a decent matchup against the White Sox, I will be avoiding Gray tonight in Chicago.

Pitcher Rating: 75.5


John Danks : FD: $6,100 — DK: $6,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 348.1 — SIERA: 4.59 — ERA: 4.68 — K%: 15.6% — BB%: 7.8% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.1 — SIERA: 4.39 — ERA: 3.93 — K%: 13.7% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.3

Oakland Athletics Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.335 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 11)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 11)

Analysis: Danks has been a bit better recently, but that’s not enough to warrant fantasy consideration. He draws a bad matchup against the A’s, who have the second-lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. There is no reason to be on Danks with all of the other pitching options on the board tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 44.1

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s draw a favorable matchup against John Danks, who has given up a .355 wOBA to right-handed hitters. They are a great source of value tonight and all of the right-handed bats in this lineup are in play.

Elite Plays:

Danny Valencia : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 249 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.151 — wRC+: 131
Last 30 Days: PA: 97 — wOBA: 0.293 — ISO: 0.146 — wRC+: 87

Secondary Plays:

Brett Lawrie : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 211 — wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 111
Last 30 Days: PA: 93 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.261 — wRC+: 153

Josh Phegley : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,200

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 127 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.227 — wRC+: 130
Last 30 Days: PA: 59 — wOBA: 0.258 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 62


Chicago White Sox

Even though I won’t be targeting Sonny Gray tonight, that doesn’t mean that we have to target the White Sox. This is still a poor matchup, as Gray has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE


Detroit at Minnesota – 8:10 PM EST

Detroit Minnesota
detroitmlb Kyle Lobstein minnesotamlb Tyler Duffey
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN (-155) 8.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.233 0.624 0.278 0.188 SP vs. Left 0.303 0.799 0.353 0.243
SP vs. Right 0.288 0.811 0.349 0.108 SP vs. Right 0.207 0.671 0.296 0.185
Batter Splits DET vs R Batter Splits MIN BvP MIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Lobstein : FD: $6,300 — DK: $4,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 91.1 — SIERA: 4.75 — ERA: 4.73 — K%: 12.6% — BB%: 8.2% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 4.1 — SIERA: 5.77 — ERA: 12.46 — K%: 9.1% — BB%: 9.1% — HR/9: 2.1

Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 11)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 27.2% (Rank: 29)
Pitches per PA: 3.82 (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Lobstein is in as bad of form as just about any pitcher over the last month of play with a 12.46 ERA and a strikeout rate of only 9.1%. He should be avoided tonight against the Twins, who are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Pitcher Rating: 29.4


Tyler Duffey : FD: $5,600 — DK: $6,800

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 32.1 — SIERA: 4.18 — ERA: 4.18 — K%: 21.6% — BB%: 10.8% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.1 — SIERA: 3.86 — ERA: 2.67 — K%: 23.0% — BB%: 10.3% — HR/9: 0.3

Detroit Tigers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 14)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 8)
Pitches per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 9)

Analysis: Duffey has pitched well recently with a 3.86 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 23.0% over the last month of play. The issue tonight is his matchup against the Tigers, who are ranked eighth in team wOBA and 14th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The potential is there, but we will have to wait for a better matchup.

Pitcher Rating: 68.1

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are sizable underdogs here, but this one has the feeling of a shootout. Miguel Cabrera is a nice tournament play against Tyler Duffey, while Victor Martinez is worth a look as a min-salary catcher on FanDuel.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Cabrera : FD: $4,200 — DK: $5,400

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 859 — wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.203 — wRC+: 158
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.173 — wRC+: 161

Victor Martinez : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 813 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.164 — wRC+: 111
Last 30 Days: PA: 84 — wOBA: 0.213 — ISO: 0.051 — wRC+: 27


Minnesota

The Twins draw a nice matchup tonight against Kyle Lobstein, who has been giving up runs in bunches recently. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play, as Lobstein has given up a .349 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate.

Elite Plays:

Brian Dozier : FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 387 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.215 — wRC+: 122
Last 30 Days: PA: 119 — wOBA: 0.286 — ISO: 0.133 — wRC+: 78

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Sano : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 70 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.270 — wRC+: 150
Last 30 Days: PA: 102 — wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.345 — wRC+: 162

Aaron Hicks : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 167 — wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.179 — wRC+: 151
Last 30 Days: PA: 63 — wOBA: 0.246 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 50


San Diego at Arizona – 9:40 PM EST

San Diego Arizona
sandiegomlb James Shields arizonamlb Jeremy Hellickson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI (-113) 8.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.263 0.769 0.336 0.197 SP vs. Left 0.249 0.716 0.312 0.183
SP vs. Right 0.24 0.702 0.307 0.241 SP vs. Right 0.276 0.816 0.352 0.198
Batter Splits SDP BvP SD vs R Batter Splits ARI BvP ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields : FD: $8,500 — DK: $7,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 403.1 — SIERA: 3.59 — ERA: 3.48 — K%: 21.8% — BB%: 6.6% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.0 — SIERA: 4.59 — ERA: 4.20 — K%: 21.1% — BB%: 12.8% — HR/9: 1.2

Arizona Diamondbacks Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 15)
Pitches per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Shields has been an easy pitcher to avoid recently, as he has walked 12.8% of batters over the last month of play. Tonight he has to face a very capable Diamondbacks’ offense in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. With all of the great pitching options on the board, I will be avoided Shields in both cash games and tournaments.

Pitcher Rating: 64.1


Jeremy Hellickson : FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 192.2 — SIERA: 4.08 — ERA: 4.58 — K%: 19.1% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 1.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 13.1 — SIERA: 3.91 — ERA: 0.68 — K%: 19.2% — BB%: 1.9% — HR/9: 0.7

San Diego Padres Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 21)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 12)

Analysis: Hellickson has been a serviceable starter over the last two seasons, posting a 4.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.1%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Padres, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. It’s still hard to trust him in cash games, but he is a viable tournament option tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 59.6

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres see a favorable ballpark shift tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. They also draw a favorable matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, who has given up a .352 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

Matt Kemp : FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,500

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 896 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 127
Last 30 Days: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.439 — ISO: 0.337 — wRC+: 186

Secondary Plays:

Justin Upton : FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 951 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 129
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.245 — wRC+: 143


Arizona

The Diamondbacks have a high team total tonight, as they square off against James Shields at home. Shields has not fared well against left-handed hitters, which puts both David Peralta and Ender Inciarte in play.

Elite Plays:

David Peralta : FD: $3,200 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 648 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 139
Last 30 Days: PA: 99 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 118

Secondary Plays:

Ender Inciarte : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 669 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.105 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.086 — wRC+: 111


Colorado at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

Colorado LA Dodgers
coloradomlb Jon Gray ladodgersmlb Clayton Kershaw
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD (-330) 6
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.291 0.771 0.335 0.194 SP vs. Left 0.198 0.533 0.236 0.343
SP vs. Right 0.292 0.825 0.349 0.195 SP vs. Right 0.195 0.525 0.234 0.323
Batter Splits COL BvP COL vs L Batter Splits LAD BvP LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jonathan Gray : FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,900

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 26.1 — SIERA: 4.26 — ERA: 6.15 — K%: 17.4% — BB%: 7.4% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 22.1 — SIERA: 4.36 — ERA: 6.45 — K%: 16.7% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 0.8

Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 19)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 19)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Gray hasn’t had the rookie season that Rockies’ fans were hoping for, but a 4.26 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 17.4% isn’t awful. He is an easy avoid at this point though, especially when he has a tough matchup like tonight. On the season, the Dodgers are ranked fifth in team wOBA and 19th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Pitcher Rating: 38.5


Clayton Kershaw : FD: $13,500 — DK: $15,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 392.1 — SIERA: 2.14 — ERA: 1.97 — K%: 32.8% — BB%: 4.4% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 40.0 — SIERA: 1.79 — ERA: 0.90 — K%: 37.2% — BB%: 2.8% — HR/9: 0.2

Colorado Rockies Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 27)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: I could go into detail about how good Kershaw is, but I’ll save you some time by keeping it simple. HE’S GOOD PEOPLE! With a 1.79 SIERA and a 37.2% strikeout rate over the last month of play, I don’t see any reason to look elsewhere in cash games. He is the top pitching option on the board and it’s not even close.

Pitcher Rating: 99.9

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Nope. Nada. No way, Jose. Don’t even think about targeting any Rockies against Clayton Kershaw.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE


LA Dodgers

The Dodgers draw a favorable matchup tonight against Jon Gray, who has given up a .349+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play against the rookie.

Elite Plays:

Corey Seager : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 23 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 32 — wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.154 — wRC+: 193

Adrian Gonzalez : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 912 — wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 143
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.286 — ISO: 0.160 — wRC+: 81

Secondary Plays:

Justin Turner : FD: $2,700 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 502 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.180 — wRC+: 154
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.250 — ISO: 0.102 — wRC+: 57

Andre Ethier : FD: $2,200 — DK: $2,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 684 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.169 — wRC+: 125
Last 30 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.157 — wRC+: 135


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious