MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 29th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Detroit at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Detroit | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Buck Farmer |  | Drew Hutchison | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-225) | 9.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.341 | 1.029 | 0.439 | 18.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.765 | 0.335 | 20.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.284 | 0.969 | 0.413 | 12.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.727 | 0.319 | 23.70% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | TOR vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 6)
Farmer is a pitcher that can be safely ignored this afternoon. He has a 7.80 ERA (4.97 SIERA), while only striking batters out at an extremely low 12.9% rate. With one of the toughest matchups on the board by far against the Blue Jays, who rank second in the league in team wOBA against right- handed starters, Farmer should be avoided today. Rating = 2
Salaries: $4,000 FD, $5,100 DK
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 14)
Hutchison is coming back after a two week absence and was on a pitch count of 75 for his minor league rehab start. He will most likely not be extended too much in his first start back. He has a tough matchup too against the Tigers, as the total is one of the highest of the day at 9.5, so Hutch should only be used as a GPP flyer only to fit the big bats in. Rating = 4.5
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
The Tigers have a big team total for the early slate and should be used against Hutchison, who allowed a .379 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the season. Miguel Cabrera is a clear elite play along with Ian Kinsler, who is hitting .374 in the month of August with 14 extra base hits.
Elite Plays:
Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.442 — ISO: 0.228
Ian Kinsler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.132
Secondary Plays:
Victor Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.256 — ISO: 0.127
J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.280
Toronto
The Blue Jays have a perfect matchup today, as they are at Rogers Centre and against a below average starter. Farmer has allowed a wOBA of .415+ from both sides of the plate this year; all the Blue Jays are in play this afternoon as the top offense of the slate and the highest projected team total of the day.
Elite Plays:
Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.464 — ISO: 0.361
Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.193
Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.188
Troy Tulowitzki (w/ Blue Jays)
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.048
Secondary Plays:
Russell Martin
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.228
Boston at NY Mets – 4:05 PM EST
| Boston | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Joe Kelly |  | Jacob Degrom | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-195) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.703 | 0.313 | 17.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.638 | 0.284 | 24.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.786 | 0.344 | 17.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.198 | 0.535 | 0.237 | 27.20% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 19)
Kelly has actually pitched very well recently as he has only allowed five runs over his last five starts. During this time, his advanced stats back it up as he does have a SIERA of 3.85. Kelly though, does have a below average strikeout rate of 18.9% and he is still tough to trust against the Mets today, who just got done scoring 70+ runs in just seven games. He could be used for tournaments as an SP2 with a good amount of risk. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6,600 FD, $7,300 DK
Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 2)
deGrom was lit up in his last start for six earned runs in 2.2 innings against the Phillies. He will look to bounce back against a very tough Red Sox team that ranks 10th in team wOBA against righties. deGrom has some solid upside as his strikeout rate sits at 26.3%, yet should see a reduced rate due to his matchup with the Red Sox, who strike out at a 16.8% clip. The afternoon does not have any other clear cut fantasy options going in solid matchups, making deGrom against the Red Sox the best available. Rating = 8
Salaries: $11,500 FD, $11,700 DK
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Prior to the start against the Phillies, deGrom had a SIERA of 2.81 and a K rate of 29% over his last 30 days. It is tough to pay the premium for the Red Sox bats against him today.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
None
NY Mets
This Mets offense is one of the hottest in baseball and they have the second highest wOBA in the league in the last two weeks. They have a solid matchup against Kelly, who has given up a .308 wOBA to lefties and a .373 wOBA against righties.
Elite Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.286
Curtis Granderson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.233
Daniel Murphy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.175
Secondary Plays:
Kelly Johnson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288— ISO: 0.197
David Wright
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.256 — ISO: 0.000
St. Louis at San Francisco – 4:05 PM EST
| St. Louis | San Francisco | ||||||||
 | Lance Lynn |  | Ryan Vogelsong | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-110) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.733 | 0.325 | 18.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.815 | 0.354 | 19.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.635 | 0.283 | 25.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.669 | 0.298 | 18.30% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SF vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 8)
Lynn has been a solid starter for the Cardinals this year. He comes into this matchup with a 3.69 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 24.2%. The problem this afternoon with Lynn, like some of the other solid starters, is the matchup. The Giants are a solid offense against right-handed pitching (.321 wOBA), but with the lack of other options, Lynn makes for the second best starting option in the afternoon slate. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8,800 FD, $10,200 DK
St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 10)
Vogelsong had a decent string of starts in early August, yet he lacks any type of upside in order to play him in any type of format. He holds a strikeout rate of 18.3% and will likely not pitch deep into his start. He has a decent start against a Cardinals offense that is in the middle of the league in both wOBA and strikeout rate, but with limited upside, is a tournament SP2 at best. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6,300 FD, $6,800 DK
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Vogelsong can be picked on this afternoon, especially by the lefties in the Cardinals lineup such as Jason Heyward, Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter. On the season, Vogelsong has allowed a wOBA of .368 to lefties.
Elite Plays:
Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.213
Jason Heyward
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.172
Secondary Plays:
Kolten Wong
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.165
San Francisco
The matchup with Lynn sets up well for the Giants, as he has allowed a wOBA of .340 against lefty bats. Belt and Aoki have been hitting high in the order recently and are at a good salary this afternoon.
Elite Plays:
Brandon Belt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.213
Norichika Aoki
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.114
Secondary Plays:
Buster Posey
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.158
Kansas City at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM EST
| Kansas City | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Kris Medlen |  | Jake Odorizzi | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-115) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.200 | 0.625 | 0.278 | 28.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.628 | 0.277 | 27.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.576 | 0.251 | 24.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.728 | 0.321 | 17.70% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tampa Bays Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 26)
Medlen will be making his second start for the Royals, and although he struck out six batters in his first start, his upside is limited due to a pitch count. He made 69 pitches in his first start, and while he was able to get through six innings, he would need another near perfect start to pay off his salary. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6,900 FD, $5,500 DK
Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 15.3% (Rank: 1)
Odorizzi has been a serviceable starter for the Rays. He comes in with a 3.75 SIERA, while striking batters out at a 21.4% rate. The problem with Odorizzi is he has only pitched passed the sixth inning once in his last ten starts and has a tough matchup against the Royals, who continue to strike out at the league’s lowest rate (15.3%) and have a team wOBA of .323 against right-handed pitching. He is an average play today due to the matchup. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8,600 FD, $10,100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals bats are secondary plays this afternoon, as they have a tough matchup against Odorizzi who has kept lefty bats to a wOBA of just .255, while giving up a wOBA of .317 to righties.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
Eric Hosmer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.202
Mike Moustakas
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.166
Ben Zobrist
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.154
Tampa Bay
This Rays offense has been a good source of value over the last few weeks. Against right-handed pitching, guys like Nava, Sizemore and Jaso will be high in the order for near minimum prices.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
Daniel Nava
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.158
Grady Sizemore
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.192
John Jaso
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.162
San Diego at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST
| San Diego | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Colin Rea |  | Adam Morgan | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SDP (-115) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.207 | 0.577 | 0.253 | 21.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.188 | 0.527 | 0.235 | 11.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.355 | 0.987 | 0.421 | 15.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.889 | 0.379 | 12.90% |
| Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SD vs L | Batter Splits | PHI vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 15)
Rea has made three starts this year, each at minimum price over at FD. For the price, he was worth a tournament play and has not pitched terribly with a 3.65 SIERA. He does not have huge upside as his strikeout rate is slightly above his Triple AAA mark at 18.8%. He has a decent matchup against the Phillies, who are still ranked towards the bottom of the league, but have improved and are ranked 15th in team wOBA in the league over the last 30 days. If he was still minimum priced, there would be a lot more to like about him tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5,000 FD, $5,200 DK
San Diego Padres vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Morgan is not a fantasy starter that should be concentrated on in any formats. He has a very high 5.27 SIERA on the year, a low strikeout rate of 12.7% and has been home run prone (1.92 HR/9). Avoid him even in a decent matchup against the Padres. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5,300 FD, $4,800 DK
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
It is always tough to target the Padres hitters, but they are in a great spot tonight against Morgan, who has allowed a wOBA of .379 to right-handed hitters as well as 13 home runs in just over 60 innings pitched.
Elite Plays:
Justin Upton
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.243 — ISO: 0.112
Jedd Gyorko
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.147
Derek Norris
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.152
Secondary Plays:
Yangervis Solarte
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.140
Philadelphia
The Phillies are another solid source of value on this slate as Rea should give up a few runs and Blanco, Herrera and Hernandez are still cheap across the industry. They have a team total of under 4 tonight, so limit your expectations.
Elite Plays:
Odubel Herrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.134
Secondary Plays:
Cesar Hernandez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.074
Andres Blanco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.230