MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 4th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-07-07 13:10:12

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.

Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS MLB news.

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST

Tampa Bay					NY Yankees
			Nate Karns					Michael Pineda
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-160)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.644	0.293	28.3%	SP vs. Left	0.231	0.644	0.280	21.90%
SP vs. Right	0.206	0.678	0.296	15.8%	SP vs. Right	0.253	0.662	0.287	23.60%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Nate Karns

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 7)

Karns has been a serviceable starter for the Rays this year. He holds an xFIP 3.83 on the season and a solid 21.9% strikeout rate. Karns does have a few drawbacks as he walks way to many batters (9.4%), does not pitch deep into ball games and has a tough matchup at Yankee Stadium today. With the matchup and park, Karns becomes a difficult starter to trust this afternoon. Rating = 5

*Salaries: *

Michael Pineda

Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 25)

Pineda really hurt a ton of us when he threw up that complete dud against the Phillies recently. He came back with a very strong performance against the Astros as he pitched eight innings, allowed two earned runs and struck out eight. Pineda’s advanced stats are extremely solid as he has a sub 3.00 xFIP and an elite 24.6% strikeout rate. He has a great matchup with the Rays who have been shut down recently and have a team wOBA of under .300 against righties. Pineda is a very nice option that will save you some cap room if you choose not to go with Felix or Bumgarner. Rating = 8*

Salaries: $9,700 FD, $8,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

This Rays squad has struggled to score runs recently. I do not exactly trust them in another tough matchup against Pineda, but they do have a few cheap guys that hit in the top of the order that could be good value plays for tournament play.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Kevin Kiermaier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.175— OBP: 0.289

Grady Sizemore
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.286

NY Yankees

Karns has actually pitched pretty well this year and has allowed under a .303 wOBA from both sides of the plate. The matchup will be tough and the big lefty bats are always in play and make for a solid mini-stack this afternoon.

Elite Plays:

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.180 — OBP: 0.381

Mark Teixeira
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.307 — OBP: 0.337

Brian McCann
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.218 — OBP: 0.347

Secondary Plays:

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.232 — OBP: 0.369

Toronto at Detroit – 1:08 PM EST

Toronto					Detroit
			R.A. Dickey					David Price
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET (-109)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.226	0.700	0.312	16.1%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.656	0.290	22.80%
SP vs. Right	0.244	0.740	0.325	18.5%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.644	0.282	26.40%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs L		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey

Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 11)

Dickey is no longer someone who has the upside to be a daily fantasy pitcher in a tough matchup against the Tigers. Dickey’s strikeout rate is at a very low 14.4%, while he continues to walk way to many batters (9.1%). Add this to the fact that he has to face the Tigers squad full of mashers and you can find another starter for the afternoon slate. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7,400 FD, $6,800 DK

David Price

Toronto Blue Jays vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.374 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 3)

Well, here we go. We have Price, who has a 3.43 xFIP and very solid 22.3% strikeout rate. Then we have the Blue Jays who mash left-handed pitching for a league leading wOBA of .374 and strikeout at a low 17.2% rate. The matchup is not worth paying up for Price today with guys like Felix and MadBum in better matchups, unless you want to be contrarian for tournaments. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $10,800 FD, $10,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

This is a tough matchup for this Blue Jays squad that is also overpriced for the park they are hitting in as well. With that said, the batters do make solid tournament plays this afternoon, but paying the price for cash games may not be the best route to go.

Secondary Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.357

Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.298 — OBP: 0.397

Jose Bautista
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.433

Jose Reyes
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.254 — ISO: 0.114 — OBP: 0.250

Danny Valencia

Detroit

As a team, this Tigers squad has only had 104 total at bats against the knuckleballer so BvP is not the best to look at. Dickey has allowed a wOBA of over .325+ from both sides of the plate and could struggle against this Tigers lineup today.

Elite Plays:

Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.184 — OBP: 0.340

Ian Kinsler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304— ISO: 0.081 — OBP: 0.336

Secondary Plays:

Victor Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.234 — ISO: 0.071 — OBP: 0.278

J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.270 — OBP: 0.333

Houston at Boston – 1:35 PM EST

Houston					Boston
			Collin McHugh					Clay Buchholz
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS (-138)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.223	0.633	0.281	21.5%	SP vs. Left	0.268	0.739	0.327	19.60%
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.678	0.300	24.8%	SP vs. Right	0.265	0.702	0.311	19.80%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Collin McHugh

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 16.5% (Rank: 2)

McHugh has been solid this season for the Astros (3.76 SIERA) and has been very good in his last two starts. He has gone eight innings in each of his last two, allowing three total earned runs with 14 total strikeouts. He has a tough matchup against the Red Sox who have been surging recently. This drops his upside a bit and when you combine the fact that the Red Sox rarely strikeout, he makes a tough play today if you are looking for potential. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8,400 FD, $7,600 DK

Clay Buchholz

Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 26.0% (Rank: 30)

It may be time that we start to trust Clay Buchholz. He has a 3.21 SIERA on the year to go along with a solid 22.8% strikeout rate. He has been great recently as he has allowed only two earned runs in his last 22 innings in some tough matchups including starts against Baltimore and at Rogers Centre. Buchholz is locked in right now and provides a bunch of upside against the Astros who have the highest strikeout rate in the league (26%). Rating = 7

Salaries: $8,600 FD, $8,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Buchholz has been pitching extremely well recently. This young Astros squad may have a difficult time today as Clay has shut down much better offenses in his last two games. They are tournament plays only.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays:

Jose Altuve
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.309

Luis Valbuena
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.268 — OBP: 0.394

Boston

Elite Plays

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.261 — OBP: 0.385

Hanley Ramirez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.191 — OBP: 0.313

Secondary Plays:

Brock Holt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.374

Baltimore at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM EST

Baltimore					Chicago White Sox
			Chris Tillman					Jeff Samardzija
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHW (-114)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.678	0.303	17.2%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.720	0.315	22.20%
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.747	0.327	16.6%	SP vs. Right	0.241	0.660	0.290	21.10%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Tillman

Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 12)

Tillman had his first solid outing in a long time in his last start against the Indians. Yet, the struggles of Tillman cannot be ignored as he still has a SIERA of 4.86 on the year. Tillman has struggled a lot with his control and is a walking batters at a 10.4% clip. The matchup is solid against the White Sox, but Tillman repeating his last performance seems unlikely. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $5,200 DK

Jeff Samardzija

Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 28)

Samardzija has finally improved a bit over his last few starts. He is pitching into the seventh inning in his last five starts, while allowing only one home run in his last four starts. The home runs had been a issue for the Shark this year as he had allowed 11 in his first 12 starts. He does sport a solid xFIP of 3.83 and the K rate, although down, is still at a respectable 19% rate. He has a tough matchup today against the Orioles who seventh in the league in team wOBA against righties (.324). Rating = 5

Salaries: $8,700 FD, $8,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Samardzija has been susceptible to the rough outings a few times this year and I could see this solid O’s offense get to him early. Davis and Wieters are premier plays at their position due to their upside in this matchup.

Elite Plays

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.256 — OBP: 0.323

Matt Wieters
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.310 — OBP: 0.340

Secondary Plays:

Adam Jones
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.165 — OBP: 0.322

Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.231 — OBP: 0.354

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox get a great matchup today against Tillman who has allowed right-handed hitters a wOBA of .400 and a 1.13 HR/9 this year. The White Sox have not exactly been a potent offense, but they are cheap and should return value today.

Elite Plays

Jose Abreu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.201 — OBP: 0.339

Adam Eaton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340— ISO: 0.152 — OBP: 0.349

Secondary Plays:

Avisail Garcia
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.114 — OBP: 0.315

Have a question for our experts about today’s games? Check out Expert Chat

Monday through Friday for Incentives Members – 6:00 PM EST

Jump to Page 1 2 3