MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 13th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Toronto at Boston – 1:35 PM EST
| Toronto | Boston | ||||||||
 | R.A. Dickey |  | Clay Buchholz | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS (-133) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.690 | 0.308 | 16.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.743 | 0.328 | 19.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.753 | 0.330 | 19.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.000 | 0.322 | 20.40% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Salaries: $7,200 FD, $6,300 DK
Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 30)
Fenway Park was rocking with runs on Friday night as the final score to the game was 13-10. It would not be a surprise to see another high-scoring game here today. This is not the best matchup for R.A. Dickey, in a hitter-friendly park against a team that strikes out less than any other team in baseball against right-handed pitching. Rating = 3.5
Salaries: $8,300 FD, $7,400 DK
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 14)
Toronto is one of the top hitting clubs in the major leagues, which doesn’t bode well for the scuffling Buchholz here today. He should improve in the second half of the season, but this is one of the toughest divisions in baseball to hit in. Fresh off 13 runs last night, the Toronto bats are hot. Jose Reyes is back, and this is certainly a formidable lineup. There are better pitching options. Rating = 4.5
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Reyes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: .133 — OBP: 0.360
Reyes has always been a stronger hitter when he hits from the right side of the plate, and this is the perfect time to target him. Toronto’s bats are red hot at the moment, Reyes has stolen base upside, and shortstop is a tough position to fill. He is arguably the top overall option at the SS position today.
Secondary Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: .253 — OBP: 0.303
Boston
David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: .224 — OBP: 0.386
David Ortiz has really picked up his play of late, and his numbers against RHP are slowly starting to resemble his career averages. He remains way too cheap on FanDuel while he is less of a value on other sites. He has a good chance to keep the good times rolling against a struggling R.A. Dickey today.
Secondary Plays:
Pablo Sandoval
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: .175 — OBP: 0.368
Hanley Ramirez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: .194 — OBP: 0.301
Minnesota at Texas – 4:05 PM EST
| Minnesota | Texas | ||||||||
 | Mike Pelfrey |  | Colby Lewis | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TEX (-118) | 9.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.191 | 0.596 | 0.278 | 12.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.306 | 0.851 | 0.368 | 14.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.326 | 0.847 | 0.374 | 10.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.757 | 0.329 | 22.30% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Salaries: $7,000 FD, $5,300 DK
Texas Rangers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 12)
Mike Pelfrey continues to defy logic and get the job done for Minnesota. The smoke and mirrors have to clear soon, as his 2.28 ERA will get peeled back by a 4.36 xFIP and 4.37 SIERA. This could be the start of the unraveling, as he faces a Texas team that suddenly sports quite a few left-handed hitters. When it gets ugly for Pelfrey, it is likely to get really ugly. A pitcher simply can’t survive with those underlying numbers and a paltry 4.57 K/9. Rating = 2.5
Salaries: $6,300 FD, $6,100 DK
Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 7)
The Twins represent one of the better matchups in the league for Colby Lewis, as he is solid against right-handed batters but struggles against lefties. The Twins don’t possess much thump from the rigth side, as evidenced by their 0.287 wOBA against righties this season. They also strike out at one of the higher clips in the league. I am not his biggest fan, but Lewis is certainly in play as a tournament option and as a cash game option on multiple pitcher sites. Rating = 6.5
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Torii Hunter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: .150 — OBP: 0.333
Texas
Prince Fielder
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.426 — ISO: .177 — OBP: 0.440
Hopefully, today is the day that Pelfrey snaps back to reality. I really like the Texas bats this afternoon, especially the left-handed power hitters. Fielder certainly qualifies under that spectrum, as his .426 wOBA and .440 OBP against RHP are both elite. He is one of the best bets for a big day today.
Secondary Plays:
Shin-Soo Choo (S)
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: .218 — OBP: 0.348
Joey Gallo (S)
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.478 — ISO: .211 — OBP: 0.500
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM EST
| Philadelphia | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | Sean O’Sullivan |  | Gerrit Cole | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-250) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.366 | 1.129 | 0.470 | 8.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.682 | 0.306 | 24.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.654 | 0.286 | 11.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.635 | 0.284 | 26.00% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Salaries: $4,900 FD, $4,200 DK
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 13)
Though the Pittsburgh offense disappointed lastnight, don’t be fooled into taking a mediocre pitcher against them. O’Sullivan sports laughable numbers including a 4.96 ERA, 5.12 xFIP, and 3.77 K/9 for the season. Stay far, far away and target the Pittsburgh bats for a rebound performance. Rating = 2
Salaries: $11,000 FD, $10,700 DK
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.275 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 18)
Cole represents my favorite pitching option of the day. The Philadelphia offense ranks dead last in most categories against RHP this season, and it’s certainly not a fluke. They don’t have much power outside of Ryan Howard, and Gerrit Cole racks up the majority of his outs via strikeouts and ground-outs. There is almost no blow-up potential here, as the Phillies will have difficulty hitting the ball in the air in this one. In addition, Cole’s 9.92 K/9 to date in 2015 is almost a full strikeout higher than a year ago Cole is also between a -250 and -280 favorite in Vegas, making him the best target of the day. Rating = 10
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: .214 — OBP: 0.371
After a slow start to the season, Andrew McCutchen has picked it up over the past three weeks. His numbers have rapidly improved, and he has regained his place amongst the elite fantasy outfielders. McCutchen is one of the top overall outfield plays today with Sean O’Sullivan on the mound for the Phillies.
Pedro Alvarez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: .238 — OBP: 0.337
If you are looking for a day game special, Pedro Alvarez is your man! For whatever reason, he has always hit much better in day games. This has held true in 2015, as Alvarez has a .340 average with 6 home runs in 50 at-bats in day games, compared to a .248 average with 4 home runs in 101 at-bats in night games. A date with Sean O’Sullivan in a day game sounds like a great recipe for success.
Secondary Plays:
Gregory Polanco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: .120 — OBP: 0.322
Cleveland at Detroit – 4:08 PM EST
| Cleveland | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Carlos Carrasco |  | Justin Verlander | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-105) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.205 | 0.558 | 0.252 | 26.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.686 | 0.305 | 19.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.635 | 0.278 | 26.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.318 | 0.000 | 0.372 | 15.30% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Salaries: $8,800 FD, $8,800 DK
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 21)
The strikeout upside is always there with Carlos Carrasco, but he has a few factors working against him today as this is a road game against a potentially dangerous offense. The Tigers also don’t strike out very often, which adds to my trepidation with Carrasco today. He’s strictly a tournament play in this spot. Rating = 6.5
Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 25)
In case you forgot, here’s a refresher: Justin Verlander is not the pitcher he once was. There is little reason to target him these days, especially after a long layoff to start the year. He will likely be on a pitch limit in this one, and the Indians hit well against RHP. If you can find him for close to minimum salary on a site, he may be in play, but even that is a risky proposition. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Brandon Moss
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: .254 — OBP: 0.281
Moss doesn’t have a massive OBP against righties this season, but his power numbers are solid. This makes him an excellent tournament option, and I like him for cash games today as well. He has two home runs in just 11 career at-bats against Verlander, and the Indians power hitters are solid plays in this matchup.
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Santana
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: .233 — OBP: 0.378
Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.453 — ISO: .188 — OBP: 0.479
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.411 — ISO: .231 — OBP: 0.418
This can probably be attributed to sample size, but Miguel Cabrera has also been a much better hitter in day games thus far in 2015. His overall numbers in 2015 are slightly below his career averages, but that doesn’t take away from his upside. He hit a home run lastnight and could be on his way to a hot streak. I don’t love the Detroit bats against Carrasco, but Miggy is definitely in play.
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Gose
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: .113 — OBP: 0.339
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay – 4:10 PM EST
| Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Jeff Samardzija |  | Chris Archer | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-170) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.712 | 0.312 | 22.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.216 | 0.590 | 0.268 | 24.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.663 | 0.291 | 20.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.644 | 0.290 | 24.80% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CWS vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Salaries: $8,700 FD, $8,300 DK
Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 8)
It has been a rocky start to 2015 for the White Sox offseason acquisition, but Jeff Samardzija could be the best under-the-radar pitching option of the day. I don’t like him on sites where the win is extremely valuable, given that Chris Archer is his opponent. However, he does draw a decent matchup here. The park is favorable for pitchers, and the Rays offense has struggled mightily against quality right-handed arms this season. There’s potential here, despite Samardzija’s uninspiring start to the year. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $10,500 FD, $11,800 DK
Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 21)
If you wanted to argue with me about Gerrit Cole being the top pitching option of the day, you could certainly make an argument with Archer. His numbers over his last handful of starts are off the charts: 23 innings pitched, 1 earned run allowed, 0 walks, and 38 strikeouts. Yeah, that’s pretty good. Throw in a home date with the feeble White Sox offense and you have a super safe pitching option. Fire up Archer with confidence once again. He is turning into a bona-fide fantasy ace. Rating = 9.5
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS
Tampa Bay
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Kevin Kiermaier (S)
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: .189 — OBP: 0.296