MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 27 - Page Three

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-06-27 17:59:01

Cincinnati at NY Mets – 4:10 PM EST

Cincinnati					NY Mets
			Michael Lorenzen					Matt Harvey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-173)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.289	0.898	0.389	0.144	SP vs. Left	0.222	0.703	0.306	0.277
SP vs. Right	0.211	0.694	0.304	0.15	SP vs. Right	0.228	0.604	0.263	0.231
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Lorenzen

New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 22)

Lorenzen is not someone to use for fantasy purposes. His 14.8% strikeout rate is below average and his command has been a major problem with a 12.2% walk rate. Add that to the fact that he has an xFIP close to five and will struggle with any chance of the win due to Harvey being his opposing pitcher and Lorenzen is an easy avoid. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5,400 FD, $4,500 DK

Matt Harvey

Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 9)

On a day with a ton of aces, it is really hard to choose who the top choice should be. Kershaw is always at the top of the pack and was pushed a bit farther ahead with the Stanton news. Harvey had a little bump in the road in late May and early June, but he has come back in his last two starts allowing only one combined run in 13.2 innings with 11 total strikeouts. He has had a great season with an xFIP of 3.08 and an elite strikeout rate of 25.8%. He has the upside to be the highest scoring pitcher in this slate and should be looked at as the number two guy in the big afternoon slate. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $10,400 FD, $11,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are an easy avoid today against Harvey.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

NY Mets

The Mets are big favorites this afternoon with their ace on the mound and a solid matchup against Lorenzen. If you are going to target the New York offense, look at the two big lefties as Lorenzen allows a wOBA of .389 to lefties over the course of this season.

Elite Plays:

Lucas Duda
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.177 — OBP: 0.354

Secondary Plays:

Curtis Granderson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.185 — OBP: 0.375

Cleveland at Baltimore – 7:15 PM EST

Editor’s Note: This game has been postponed due to weather concerns.

Cleveland					Baltimore
			Cody Anderson					Chris Tillman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-127)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.300	0.7	0.304	0.2	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.691	0.308	0.17
SP vs. Right	0.167	0.378	0.176	0.105	SP vs. Right	0.241	0.748	0.328	0.166
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits			BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Editor’s Note: This game has been postponed due to weather concerns.

Pitcher Grind Down

Cody Anderson

Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 27)

Anderson has made one start this year and pitched very well with 7.2 innings pitched, zero earned runs and four strikeouts. Anderson has pitched well in the minors the last few seasons but never had massive strikeout numbers so his upside is a bit limited. Add that to the fact that he has a much tougher matchup today against the Orioles, and you can keep moving on to a more trustable pitcher. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,100 FD, $5,000 DK

Chris Tillman

Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 6)

Tillman has struggled badly this season. He has a 6.22 ERA (5.08 xFIP) and is coming off a four out, six earned run shelling in his last start. Tillman is going to have a tough time today facing this lefty-heavy Indians offense and looks like the top option to stack against in the late slate. Avoid both pitchers in this matchup. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $6,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Editor’s Note: This game has been postponed due to weather concerns.

Cleveland

With the late slate only featuring four games, we have to look and attack the weakest pitchers. The Indians may be facing the worst pitcher on the board during the night slate and should be looked at as one a top stack along with the other offense in this game. Tillman has allowed a .335+ wOBA from both sides of the plate and has struggled all year long.

Elite Plays:

Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.457 — ISO: 0.179 — OBP: 0.490

Michael Brantley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.145 — OBP: 0.377

Carlos Santana
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.239 — OBP: 0.356

Secondary Plays:

David Murphy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.153 — OBP: 0.365

Francisco Lindor
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.333

Baltimore

Baltimore gets to face the youngster in his second career start. They are hoping to avoid what happened to the Rays as they were never able to figure him out. The Orioles are favorites in this game with Tillman on the mound, which tells me they should be able to put up a few runs in this game.

Elite Plays:

Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.212 — OBP: 0.358

Matt Wieters
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.445 — ISO: 0.353 — OBP: 0.385

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.224 — OBP: 0.324

Secondary Plays:

Jimmy Paredes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.198 — OBP: 0.354

Travis Snider
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.096 — OBP: 0.351

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 7:15 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					St. Louis
			Donn Roach					Michael Wacha
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.333	0.939	0.416	0.078	SP vs. Left	0.214	0.594	0.269	0.202
SP vs. Right	0.278	0.754	0.337	0.146	SP vs. Right	0.241	0.651	0.288	0.200
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Donn Roach

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 24.9% (Rank: 29)

Roach will be making his first start of the year and second career start tonight as he is replacing Wada. Roach has been solid in Triple-A Iowa so far this year with a 7-1 record and 2.29 ERA in 14 starts. Again, it is very tough to predict how starts like this one will go, but he should be avoided against a patient Cardinals offense. Rating = 3

Michael Wacha

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 7)

Wacha has the makings tonight of the top starter on the late slate. He comes into this game with an xFIP of 3.61 and a decent strikeout rate of 18.9%. He gets a matchup with the Cubs who are striking out at a 24.9% clip. If he can keep the ball in the park today, he could be the highest scoring pitcher of the slate as the biggest favorite. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $8,600 FD, $10,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Wacha is my favorite pitcher in the late slate as he has allowed a wOBA of under .275 from both sides of the plate. Only use the Cubs as GPP plays tonight as they do have home run upside every game.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.423 — ISO: 0.306 — OBP: 0.402

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.163 — OBP: 0.379

St. Louis

I don’t exactly know what to expect from Roach in this start, but there are some Cardinals bats that are always consistent and trustworthy for cash games. Guys like Wong and Carpenter are always in play, especially against a young pitcher.

Elite Plays:

Kolten Wong
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.207 — OBP: 0.353

Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.205 — OBP: 0.428

Secondary Plays:

Jhonny Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.373

Seattle at LA Angels – 7:15 PM EST

Seattle					LA Angels
			J.A. Happ					Garrett Richards
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-160)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.273	0.807	0.353	0.245	SP vs. Left	0.202	0.549	0.249	0.226
SP vs. Right	0.262	0.742	0.325	0.177	SP vs. Right	0.215	0.578	0.266	0.220
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

J.A. Happ

Los Angeles Angels vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 9)

Happ has been serviceable for the Mariners, posting a 3.78 ERA through his first 14 starts. The problem is his lack of upside. He rarely pitches deep into ball games due to it taking him a lot of pitches to labor through the first few innings. His strikeout rate of 18.3% is decent, but he will have to get through some surging righties for the Angels tonight and I do not think he will go untouched. Rating = 5

Garrett Richards

Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 22.9% (Rank: 28)

We keep waiting for Richards make that jump to the level he was at last year. He has yet to put it all together, but is still pitching well for the Angels. Richards comes into this game with a 4.20 xFIP and a decent 18.6% strikeout rate. The dip in strikeout rate could go hand in hand with the fact that he has lost some velocity from last year and it really leads to a dip in his ceiling going forward if this continues. With that said, he is my second favorite option behind Wacha on short slate tonight. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8,800 FD, $9,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Richards is my second favorite pitcher on the night slate as he has a solid matchup against this Mariners squad that has struggled offensively this year. I can see taking a flyer on Cruz or Cano as they have become cheap, but that is due to recent performance and should only be used as tournament plays.

Elite Plays:

Secondary Plays:

Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.187 — OBP: 0.338

Robinson Cano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.112 — OBP: 0.305

LA Angels

Anytime the Angels are taking on a lefty we have two easy plays to make in Trout and Pujols. Pujols has really come on as of late and makes a great first base play, while Trout is the top option of the night slate in the outfield.

Elite Plays:

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410— ISO: 0.295— OBP: 0.384

Albert Pujols
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.305 — OBP: 0.359

Secondary Plays:

Efren Navarro
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 — ISO: 0.050 — OBP: 0.323

Arizona at San Diego – 10:10 PM EST

Arizona					San Diego
			Jeremy Hellickson					Andrew Cashner
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SDP (-135)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.262	0.751	0.327	0.182	SP vs. Left	0.256	0.779	0.337	0.193
SP vs. Right	0.277	0.807	0.351	0.191	SP vs. Right	0.245	0.631	0.279	0.199
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 26)

Hellickson has been dealing with some back issues that have bothered him enough to get an MRI that came back negative. He has struggled at times this year and has a 4.94 ERA (4.17 xFIP) on the season and is just allowing way too many home runs to be successful (1.38 HR/9). He may have an easier time keeping the ball in the park today in pitcher-friendly San Diego, which gives him a bit of a bump, but not enough to be a viable starting option. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $6,700 DK

Andrew Cashner

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 15)

Cashner has really struggled and given up a lot of runs on the season. Yet, he still scores us points in daily fantasy due to his 21.2% strikeout rate. His xFIP is sitting at a solid 3.72, which shows some bad luck in his 4+ ERA on the season. He has an average matchup tonight against the Diamondbacks and makes an interesting GPP play if you want to zag away from Wacha and Richards. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $8,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

As much as Cashner has struggled at times this year, today looks to set up well for him at home against a Diamondbacks offense that is not the same away from Chase Field. Goldschmidt is always in play, but the heavy price tag and the park may not be worth it tonight.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.463 — ISO: 0.296 — OBP: 0.480

David Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.181 — OBP: 0.341

San Diego

Justin Upton makes a solid play tonight against Hellickson, but it is really the lefties we want to attack as Hellboy has allowed a wOBA of .394 to lefties on the year.

Elite Plays:

Justin Upton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.207 — OBP: 0.364

Secondary Plays:

Yonder Alonso
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.092 — OBP: 0.393

Will Venable
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.165 — OBP: 0.329

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