MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 27th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Texas at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Texas | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Yovani Gallardo |  | Matt Boyd | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-145) | 9 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.645 | 0.288 | 17.1% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.705 | 0.312 | 18.6% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | TEX vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Toronto vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 17)
Gallardo has been pitching very well recently. Over his last six starts, he has allowed only five earned runs over the course of 37 innings pitched. On the season, Gallardo has a solid 3.74 xFIP and an average 18.1% strikeout rate. With all that said, he has one of the toughest matchups on the board as he has to take on the Blue Jays in Rogers Centre. The matchup and park alone take him out of consideration this morning unless you want to take a major GPP flier. Rating = 4
Salaries: $8,000 FD, $7,100 DK
Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 23.8% (Rank: 27)
The Blue Jays are sending up Matt Boyd to make his first Major League start today. Boyd has been fantastic in the minors this year making fourteen total starts. Twelve of those starts have come in Double-A where he sported a 1.10 ERA and his last two starts in Triple-A resulted in three earned runs and twelve strikeouts in twelve innings. We never know what we are going to get from a guy making his first start, so it is safe to avoid him in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre today. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Texas is in an interesting spot against Matt Boyd today as they will be seeing him for the first time in the majors and he has confidence rolling in off a great minor league campaign. Add this to the fact that this Rangers squad has really struggled against lefties on the year and you have a tough sell for the Rangers’ bats. With that said, Beltre is cheap still across the industry and is in a good spot in Rogers Centre today.
Elite Plays:
Adrian Beltre
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.289
Secondary Plays:
Prince Fielder
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.198 — OBP: 0.350
Elvis Andrus
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.115 — OBP: 0.349
Toronto
We all saw exactly what this Blue Jays’ offense can do when they are playing at Rogers Centre. I am not sure they repeat their 12-run performance considering Gallardo has held opponents to under a .275 wOBA from both sides of the plate. Yet, they are still very capable and are one of the top offenses to stack in the early slates.
Elite Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.244 — OBP: 0.318
Jose Reyes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.129 — OBP: 0.333
Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.279 — OBP: 0.382
Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.220 — OBP: 0.345
Secondary Plays:
Russell Martin
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.222 — OBP: 0.333
Minnesota at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM EST
| Minnesota | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Kyle Gibson |  | Matt Garza | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIL (-121) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.702 | 0.312 | 10.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.698 | 0.310 | 17.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.684 | 0.303 | 19.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.715 | 0.313 | 17.60% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 25)
Gibson has been a serviceable starter for the Twins this year as his 3.35 ERA is slightly backed up by his 4.12 xFIP. Gibson does, however, have a low 15.2% strikeout rate and has had a problem with control as he has a 7.8% walk rate and has seven walks over his last three starts. He does get to face a struggling Brewers offense that is still 27th in the league in team wOBA against righties and have a high strikeout rate. He is a GPP play only, especially after the Brewers bats actually came to life last night. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6,200 FD, $5,700 DK
Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 21)
Garza has been terrible for the Brewers this year along with most of the rest of the squad. Garza has a 5.48 ERA on the year and has allowed 13 earned runs in his last two starts. He is facing a Twins squad that is in the bottom third of the league in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against righties. Garza is a slight favorite this afternoon, yet is not exactly the most trustable option on a slate with a ton of good pitchers. Rating = 4.5*
Salaries: $6,000 FD, $5,900 DK
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
This Twins offense is so much better against lefties than righties do to their heavy right-handed lineup. They do still feature some solid power and the righties may have a easy time today as Garza has allowed a wOBA of .356 to RH batters on the season.
Elite Plays:
Brian Dozier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.251 — OBP: 0.332
Trevor Plouffe
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.191 — OBP: 0.294
Secondary Plays:
Torii Hunter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.134 — OBP: 0.326
Eddie Rosario
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.303
Milwaukee
This Brewers offense has been so bad this year that it is very difficult to trust them as a whole two games in a row. They may be carrying some momentum from the ten run performance yesterday and have a decent matchup against Gibson today, yet the only two guys I really like are Adam Lind and Ryan Braun, while Gerardo Parra makes a decent cheap option if he continues to lead off.
Elite Plays:
Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.213 — OBP: 0.368
Ryan Braun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.226 — OBP: 0.315
Secondary Plays:
Gerardo Parra
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.312
Washington at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM EST
| Washington | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Gio Gonzalez |  | Adam Morgan | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-173) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.649 | 0.289 | 22.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.333 | 0.899 | 0.401 | 27.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.698 | 0.310 | 23.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.833 | 0.354 | 23.10% |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs L | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Philadelphia Phillies vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 10)
Gio has been a picture of inconsistency so far this year. This has resulted in his ERA being almost a full point higher than his xFIP of 3.51. Gio does have a 20.3% strikeout rate this year and has the best matchup on the board against the Phillies who are much better against lefties, but are still one of the worst offenses in the league. Gio is a solid favorite this afternoon and should get a decent amount of run support, yet does come with some risk. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8,700 FD, $7,900 DK
Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 20)
Morgan pitched extremely well in his Major League debut allowing just one earned run on six hits against the Cardinals. I don’t think even Morgan could have imagined that type of start, as he was 0-6 in 13 starts at Triple A this season. Morgan is not someone you want to target, as I do not think lightning will strike twice as he is a big underdog this afternoon. Rating = 2.5
Salaries: $5,400 FD, $4,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Washington
This Nationals’ offense looks to be in a very good spot today against the young lefty who I think comes right back down to Earth after making one solid start. If Bryce Harper is in the lineup, he makes for an Elite Play, but we need to look at the lineup as it comes out as value plays could arise if he sits as I think they should be targeted.
Elite Plays:
Bryce Harper
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.471 — ISO: 0.296 — OBP: 0.478
Ian Desmond
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.284 — ISO: 0.119 — OBP: 0.286
Yunel Escobar
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.287— ISO: 0.081 — OBP: 0.297
Secondary Plays:
Wilson Ramos
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.083 — OBP: 0.306
Philadelphia
This Phillies offense actually came to life earlier in the week as they scored 31 runs in three games from Sunday to Tuesday. The offense slowed back down over its last two games and now has to face Gio, who has really shut down lefties this year. He has given up a wOBA of .342 to right-handed bats and Maikel Franco has been hot recently and is an elite play against Gio.
Elite Plays:
Maikel Franco
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.454 — ISO: 0.400 — OBP: 0.405
Secondary Plays:
Cesar Hernandez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.418 — ISO: 0.077 — OBP: 0.478
Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM EST
| Atlanta | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | Julio Teheran |  | Charlie Morton | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-160) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.750 | 0.328 | 18.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.675 | 0.306 | 18.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.628 | 0.279 | 22.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.306 | 17.20% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 18)
Just when we were ready to completely write Teheran off this season, he goes out and pitches a seven inning, one-hit gem against the Mets on Sunday. His struggles over the course of this season are hard to ignore as he has a 4.23 xFIP, a low strikeout rate for him (18.5%) and his highest walk rate since his rookie year (8.6%). If you want to take a tournament flier and bank on his last start’s momentum continuing against the Pirates today, you could, but there is a lot of risk attached. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8,000 FD, $8,300 DK
Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 3)
Morton was pitching well in his first few starts back after starting the season on the DL. Then he ran into the Nationals on Sunday and allowed nine earned runs, while just retiring two batters. He will look to bounce back today against the Braves who will continue to miss their best offensive player in Freddie Freeman. As a -170 favorite this afternoon, Morton is one of the larger favorites on the board, but lacks the upside of many of the other options. He makes a great play on multi-pitcher sites for a cheap price today. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7,400 FD, $6,200 DK
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
This Braves offense is not the same without their star first baseman Freddie Freeman. They have struggled to score runs since his injury and have only mustered up four runs in their last five games. Morton is in a good spot, but he is also hittable. I will be avoiding the bats today, but a few of their guys are cheap and in decent spots due to moving up in the order.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
Nick Markakis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.066 — OBP: 0.421
A.J. Pierzynski
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.149 — OBP: 0.313
Pittsburgh
At this point in the season we know how to attack Teheran. He has very little ability to get left-handed batters out these days as he has allowed a wOBA of .401 to them on the season. This puts all the Pirates’ lefties in play today and most are sitting at very affordable prices.
Elite Plays:
Gregory Polanco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.127 — OBP: 0.326
Pedro Alvarez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.219 — OBP: 0.327
Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.214 — OBP: 0.378
Secondary Plays:
Neil Walker
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.139 — OBP: 0.327
Colorado at San Francisco – 4:05 PM EST
| Colorado | San Francisco | ||||||||
 | Chris Rusin |  | Tim Lincecum | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SFG (-134) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.271 | 0.781 | 0.338 | 14.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.701 | 0.313 | 15.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.309 | 0.000 | 0.371 | 14.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.805 | 0.353 | 23.00% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SF vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
San Francisco Giants vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 6)
Rusin has been pretty bad over his last few starts. He has a 5.03 ERA on the year and actually has an ERA of two and a half points higher away from Coors than he does at home. He is not someone you ever need to decide whether to play in daily fantasy as he also has a very low strikeout rate (14.4%). Avoid him today. Rating = 3.5
Salaries: $5,400 FD, $4,300 DK
Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.286 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 25.2% (Rank: 30)
Lincecum is coming off the shortest outing in his career as he allowed five earned runs in 1.1 innings of work against the Dodgers. At this point in his career, Lincecum has to be perfect on the mound as his stuff does not allow him to go out and beat hitters anymore and he is struggling with this adjustment. He has a 4.50 xFIP and his strikeout rate has continued to drop each year over his last five and is down to a career-low 7.11 K/9. Lincecum is not who he once was and although is a decent favorite (-147), he is not someone I want to trust on this slate except for GPPs only. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7,600 FD, $6,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
This Rockies team as we all know is not the same away from Coors Field, and especially not the same in a pitcher’s stadium in San Francisco. Lincecum may brush off his last start and pitch well today, but the guy I really like is Nolan Arenado as he is swing a very hot bat and Lincecum is allowing righties to hit for a wOBA of .367 this year.
Elite Plays:
Nolan Arenado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.341 — OBP: 0.308
Secondary Plays:
Troy Tulowitzki
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.137 — OBP: 0.313
Charlie Blackmon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.402
San Francisco
This Giants offense is in a great spot today as they are such a lefty heavy offense and get to face a pitcher that is allowing lefties a wOBA of .423 on the year. A lot of their players are hurt, which has forced some guys into the top of the order that are not usually up their such as Gregor Blanco and Brandon Crawford. Posey is also one of the top catchers of the day when facing a lefty pitcher.
Elite Plays:
Brandon Crawford
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.441 — ISO: 0.259 — OBP: 0.417
Joe Panik
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.121 — OBP: 0.420
Buster Posey
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.127 — OBP: 0.300
Secondary Plays:
Matt Duffy
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.241 — ISO: 0.107 — OBP: 0.237