MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 2 - Page Three

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-08-02 13:40:04

Colorado at St. Louis – 2:15 PM EST

Colorado					St. Louis
			Yohan Flande					Jaime Garcia
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-178)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.187	0.575	0.256	0.143	SP vs. Left	0.284	0.746	0.33	0.259
SP vs. Right	0.28	0.775	0.335	0.14	SP vs. Right	0.199	0.57	0.252	0.182
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Yohan Flande – Flande has only made one start this season in addition to 17 innings out of the bullpen, so we don’t have a lot of data to go on. Last season he made 10 starts for the Rockies, and putting his career numbers together we see a low strikeout, high ground ball left-handed pitcher. His 13.9% strikeout rate against right-handed batters is not going to be high enough to get by even with a 57% ground ball rate. His ground ball rate against lefties is even better at 64%. Any pitcher with that high of a ground ball rate has a chance to put together some good starts, but I don’t see him being a viable play today against the Cardinals. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 22 – SIERA: 3.57 – ERA: 3.68 – K%: 15.1% – BB%: 7.5% – HR/9: 0.41

Salaries: $4,900 FD, $4,800 DK

Jaime Garcia – Garcia has always been a solid pitcher when healthy, and this season he is exhibiting some of the best skills of his career. He has always been a ground ball pitcher, but this year he is all the way up to a 67.8% rate, which is the highest in the league. Coupled with a solid 18.5% strikeout rate and low 4.5% walk rate, he is going to have success. He has thrown a quality start in all eight of his games this year. The Cardinals are a heavy favorite at home against Colorado, and while Garcia’s strikeout rate isn’t high enough to put him in the elite category, he looks like a strong play today. Pitcher Rating – 8
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 54 – SIERA: 2.79 – ERA: 2.00 – K%: 18.5% – BB%: 4.5% – HR/9: 0.67

Salaries: $8,100 FD, $9,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

I don’t see any reason to play Rockies batters today, outside of a long shot tournament play.

Secondary Plays:

St. Louis

I don’t like to target batters against high ground ball pitchers, but the Cardinals right-handed bats are acceptable options.

Secondary Plays:

Jhonny Peralta – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .351 – OBP: .310 – ISO: .264 – wRC+: 126
Randal Grichuk – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .371 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .244 – wRC+: 140

San Francisco at Texas – 3:05 PM EST

San Francisco					Texas
			Mike Leake					Martin Perez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-130)					9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.277	0.777	0.340	0.147	SP vs. Left	0.222	0.626	0.278	0.246
SP vs. Right	0.229	0.651	0.285	0.202	SP vs. Right	0.299	0.804	0.355	0.125
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs L		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake – Leake was moved to San Francisco at the trade deadline, and gets a tough assignment in his first outing against the Rangers. Leake has been a very consistent, though unexciting pitcher throughout his career. He has been great since the beginning of June, having allowed three runs or less in his past eight starts. He does have a 10 strikeout shutout on his resume, showing some upside, but generally he should not be looked at for big performances. Pitcher Rating – 5.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 136 – SIERA: 3.91 – ERA: 3.56 – K%: 16.2% – BB%: 6.1% – HR/9: 0.92

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $6,600 DK

Martin Perez – Perez has thrown just 12 innings this season, and while they’ve been terrible, it’s too small of a sample size to put too much stock in. However, until he shows something positive he cannot be considered as a playable option. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 12 – SIERA: 5.24 – ERA: 10.50 – K%: 8.1% – BB%: 9.7% – HR/9: 0

Salaries: $4,900 FD, $4,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – The top hitting catcher in the league should have no trouble with Martin Perez. While his numbers are down against left-handed pitchers this season, he has a long history of dominance against lefties.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .333 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .149 – wRC+: 118

Hunter Pence – Pence has been great since coming off the DL with a .396 wOBA and .229 ISO. He has strong numbers against lefties throughout his career
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .369 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .250 – wRC+: 143

Secondary Plays:

Joe Panik – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .376 – ISO: .088 – wRC+: 120

Texas

Prince Fielder – Fielder has been crushing right-handed pitching this season with elite plate discipline; an 8.2% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .410 – OBP: .434 – ISO: .162 – wRC+: 160

Mitch Moreland – Moreland tends to get overlooked, but he is just behind Fielder as the best hitter on this team against right-handed pitching.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .397 – OBP: .349 – ISO: .283 – wRC+: 151

Secondary Plays:

Roughned Odor – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .327 – ISO: .200 – wRC+: 114
Josh Hamilton – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .337 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 110

Cleveland at Oakland – 4:05 PM EST

Cleveland					Oakland
			Trevor Bauer					Sonny Gray
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK (-143)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.228	0.696	0.311	0.234	SP vs. Left	0.209	0.592	0.269	0.213
SP vs. Right	0.256	0.74	0.325	0.218	SP vs. Right	0.233	0.596	0.268	0.201
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer – Bauer is an intriguing tournament option against Oakland. He has a good strikeout rate with the ability to have high strikeout games when his stuff is on. He has nine starts with seven or more strikeouts this season and faces a struggling Oakland team. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 124 – SIERA: 3.83 – ERA: 4.13 – K%: 23.6% – BB%: 9.3% – HR/9: 1.30

Salaries: $8,300 FD, $9,000 DK

Sonny Gray – Gray is coming off a complete game shutout over the Dodgers, which shows how good he can be when he’s on. Despite the great start last week, he is generally thought of more as a safe option than a high upside play. His strikeout rate is just above average and his high ground ball rate of 55% usually keeps the damage to a minimum. He has been great against left-handed hitting this season which help him against this Indians team. He looks like a cash game option today. Pitcher Rating – 8
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 145 – SIERA: 3.36 – ERA: 2.16 – K%: 21.8% – BB%: 6.3% – HR/9: 0.49

Salaries: $10,300 FD, $11,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

With Sonny Gray’s top skills against left-handed batters, no Cleveland hitters are elite plays today. Their top hitters can be considered as secondary plays in nearly any matchup.

Secondary Plays:

Jason Kipnis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .425 – OBP: .454 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 179
Michael Brantley – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .372 – OBP: .390 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 142

Oakland

Josh Reddick – Bauer does have a tendency to allow home runs with a 43.1% fly ball rate to left-handed hitters. Reddick has great plate discipline and good power against right-handed pitching.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .367 – ISO: .202 – wRC+: 150

Secondary Plays:

Stephen Vogt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .367 – OBP: .367 – ISO: .219 – wRC+: 139

LA Angels at LA Dodgers – 4:10 PM EST

LA Angels					LA Dodgers
			Cory Rasmus					Mat Latos
								RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.229	0.647	0.285	0.265	SP vs. Left	0.251	0.67	0.295	0.176
SP vs. Right	0.179	0.52	0.236	0.244	SP vs. Right	0.229	0.673	0.297	0.208
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Cory Rasmus – The Angels are scrambling to find a starter to fill in for the injured CJ Wilson. It looks like Rasmus will get the nod against the Dodgers today. He has a total of 78 innings of major league experience with six starts and some bullpen innings. His overall numbers are not bad with a solid 24% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. He looks like a fly ball pitcher with a 45.5% fly ball rate in his career. I don’t expect him to have success being thrown into the fire against the Dodgers, but he also shouldn’t be seen as bottom of the barrel pitcher to stack against. Pitcher Rating – 4

Salaries: $4,500 FD, $4,000 DK

Mat Latos – Latos makes his first start for his new team, and looks to pick up where he left off after four straight quality starts. Since the start of June, he has a 2.95 ERA with a 43:9 K:BB ratio in 46 innings. He is certainly not the ace he used to be, but this is still a very solid major league pitcher. The Angels can be a tough opponent to face, but Latos can be considered inside the top ten pitchers today as a strong favorite at home. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 88 – SIERA: 3.72 – ERA: 4.48 – K%: 21.2% – BB%: 6.7% – HR/9: 0.82

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $7,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout – Latos has been tough on right-handed batters, but Trout is matchup proof
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .437 – OBP: .407 – ISO: .325 – wRC+: 190

Secondary Plays:

Albert Pujols – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .289 – wRC+: 152
Kole Calhoun – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .330 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .149 – wRC+: 116

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – Cory Rasmus has allowed a .346 wOBA to left-handed batters in his career, while Gonzalez has been elite against right-handed pitching.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .394 – OBP: .376 – ISO: .264 – wRC+: 158

Yasmani Grandal – Grandal has been one of the best hitting catchers in the league against right-handed pitching this season
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .400 – OBP: .391 – ISO: .256 – wRC+: 162

Secondary Plays:

Joc Pederson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .361 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .252 – wRC+: 135

Washington at NY Mets – 8:08 PM EST

Washington					NY Mets
			Jordan Zimmermann					Noah Syndergaard
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-137)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.269	0.686	0.303	0.192	SP vs. Left	0.222	0.627	0.272	0.185
SP vs. Right	0.235	0.604	0.268	0.225	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.65	0.286	0.307
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Zimmermann – The Sunday night game is shaping up as another pitcher’s duel in New York. Zimmerman is a better real life pitcher than a fantasy pitcher, given his low strikeout rate. He is a skilled enough pitcher as he showed last year that he can up his strikeouts when he needs to, but that is just not the way he prefers to pitch. He limits walks and pitches to contact making him tough to pay for, especially with the difficult matchup against Syndergaard making it difficult to predict a win. Pitcher Rating – 7.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 128 – SIERA: 3.98 – ERA: 3.36 – K%: 17.2% – BB%: 4.3% – HR/9: 0.63

Salaries: $8,300 FD, $7,700 DK

Noah Syndergaard – Syndergaard is the pitcher the most upside in this matchup, as his strikeout ability gives him the chance to put up some big scores. Over his last eight starts, he has 57 strikeouts in 52 innings while allowing zero or one run in six of those eight starts. While the Nationals have started getting some of their hitters healthy they are still not playing at a high level offensively. Syndergaard can be considered in all formats tonight. Pitcher Rating – 9
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 86 – SIERA: 3.04 – ERA: 2.70 – K%: 25.9% – BB%: 5.7% – HR/9: 0.62

Salaries: $9,600 FD, $10,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Washington should not be expected to do much damage against Syndergaard tonight. Of course, Bryce Harper is a tournament option in any matchup with his tremendous numbers against right-handed pitching.

Secondary Plays:

Bryce Harper -2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .484 – OBP: .465 – ISO: .372 – wRC+: 216

NY Mets

The Mets get a boost to their lineup adding Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline. I wouldn’t recommend targeting too many Mets against Zimmerman, but there are a couple worthy plays.

Lucas Duda – Duda is officially on fire with eight home runs in his last seven games.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .343 – ISO: .228 – wRC+: 126

Secondary Plays:

Yoenis Cespedes – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .378 – OBP: .343 – ISO: .228 – wRC+: 142

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