MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 2nd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS MLB news.
Kansas City at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Kansas City | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Edinson Volquez |  | R.A. Dickey | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-137) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.676 | 0.299 | 18.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.694 | 0.309 | 15.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.662 | 0.298 | 16.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.743 | 0.326 | 18.60% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Edinson Volquez – Volquez is not a bad pitcher, and he has several great outings this season, but he is too inconsistent to be trusted against the loaded Blue Jays offense at the Rogers Centre. His high ground ball rate against right-handed batters will be a big help in this game, but there’s just not enough here to recommend playing him. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 126 – SIERA: 4.29 – ERA: 3.21 – K%: 17.8% – BB%: 8.8% – HR/9: 0.64
Salaries: $8,700 FD, $7,400 DK
R.A. Dickey – As a general rule, you are not supposed to start pitchers against the Royals with the league’s lowest strikeout rate. Given that Dickey does not have more than seven strikeouts in any game this year, there doesn’t look to be a lot of upside here. That being said, when the knuckleball is working, he can out together some pretty decent starts. I am more likely to play Royals batters than I am to play Dickey. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 137 – SIERA: 4.72 – ERA: 4.27 – K%: 14.5% – BB%: 8.1% – HR/9: 1.12
Salaries: $7,700 FD, $6,500 DK
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Eric Hosmer – Hosmer comes in hot with 13 multi-hit games in his last 20.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .403 – OBP: .405 – ISO: .199 – wRC+: 161
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .335 – ISO: .222 – wRC+: 128
Lorenzo Cain – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .345 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 120
Toronto
It’s an interesting matchup for the Blue Jays, as they should score some runs today, but it’s hard to know where they will come from, as Volquez does not allow a lot of home runs to right-handed hitters which are of course Toronto’s main weapons. For that reason, as well as their high prices, I’m going to call all the big right-handed bats secondary plays, but there is upside all throughout this lineup.
Ben Revere – Revere is a fantastic addition to this lineup, as he fills the leadoff role and gives a different kind of hitter for opposing pitchers to deal with. He has an elite contact rate against right-handed pitching.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .333 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .085 – wRC+: 112
Secondary Plays:
Edwin Encarnacion – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .347 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .239 – wRC+: 120
Troy Tulowitzki – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .172 – wRC+: 102
Jose Bautista – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .371 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .275 – wRC+: 136
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Charlie Morton |  | Keyvius Sampson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.730 | 0.326 | 17.1% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.670 | 0.301 | 17.2% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Charlie Morton – Morton is a difficult pitcher to play either on or against. He has a very low strikeout rate, but one of the highest ground ball rates in the league at 60%. He gives up very few home runs and is very much at the mercy of his defense and the randomness of BABIP. With no upside, he is hard to trust in your DFS lineup. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 70 – SIERA: 4.08 – ERA: 4.61 – K%: 13.6% – BB%: 8.0% – HR/9: 0.90
Salaries: $6,400 FD, $5,300 DK
Keyvius Sampson – I do not know much about Reds rookie Keyvius Sampson, coming up to make his first major league start. In looking at his minor league numbers, I see decent results at the lower levels, but struggles in his three stints at AAA. This season he has an 18.5% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate with a 3.67 FIP, while in 2013-2014, his FIP was above 6.00 both years with a 16% walk rate and a 1.67 HR/9. I see no reason to expect much from him today. Pitcher Rating – 3
Salaries: $3,000 FD, $4,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen – It’s hard to envision Keyvius Sampson coming up and being able to handle McCutcheon. He has been great against right-handed pitching this season.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .386 – ISO: .215 – wRC+: 147
Jung-Ho Kang – Kang has been excellent since the injury to Jordy Mercer with a .456 wOBA over the past month.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .360 – OBP: .369 – ISO: .147 – wRC+: 133
Secondary Plays:
Starling Marte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .327 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .137 – wRC+: 111
Neil Walker – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .160 – wRC+: 115
Gregory Polanco – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .311 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .129 – wRC+: 100
Pedro Alvarez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .322 – OBP: .312 – ISO: .211 – wRC+: 107
Cincinnati
As I mentioned, Morton’s high ground ball rate makes it tough to play against him, but he can occasionally get blown up if hits are falling in. He has been much worse against left-handed batters both this year and for his career.
Joey Votto – Votto has been great against right-handed pitching making him the top play from the Reds lineup.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .422 – OBP: .431 – ISO: .251 – wRC+: 172
Secondary Plays:
Todd Frazier – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .364 – OBP: .334 – ISO: .245 – wRC+: 132
San Diego at Miami – 1:10 PM EST
| San Diego | Miami | ||||||||
 | James Shields |  | Jose Fernandez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-149) | 6.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.766 | 0.336 | 19.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.659 | 0.292 | 27.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.696 | 0.305 | 24.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.157 | 0.437 | 0.192 | 39.70% |
| Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SD vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
James Shields – We should be in for a pitching duel in Miami today. Shields has a strong 26.3% strikeout rate backed up by a 13.4% swinging strike rate, which is the seventh-best mark in the league. His one problem this season has been home runs, as he has allowed 21 HR due to an inflated 17.9% HR/FB rate. The Marlins have scored the fewest runs of any team in baseball, making Shields an upside play if he can avoid the home run ball. Pitcher Rating – 8
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 133 – SIERA: 3.32 – ERA: 3.77 – K%: 26.3% – BB%: 8.4% – HR/9: 1.41
Salaries: $8,900 FD, $8,200 DK
Jose Fernandez – Fernandez has not missed a beat in his return from Tommy John surgery. He has a 37:7 K:BB ratio in his 32 innings with a 15.2% swinging strike rate. The Padres score the second fewest runs in the month of July and have one of the highest strikeout rates in the league against right-handed pitching. Fernandez is the top pitcher on the board today and a recommended play in all formats. Pitcher Rating – 9.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 32 – SIERA: 2.66 – ERA: 2.53 – K%: 29.1% – BB%: 5.5% – HR/9: 0.28
Salaries: $10,700 FD, $12,300 DK
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
Do not play any San Diego bats against Jose Fernandez
Secondary Plays:
Miami
There are many better places to look for offense around the league today, though you can consider a couple left-handed bats as secondary plays as Shields has not been as dominant against lefties.
Secondary Plays:
Dee Gordon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .323 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .081 – wRC+: 104
Justin Bour – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .213 – wRC+: 123
Christian Yelich – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .110 – wRC+: 105
Atlanta at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM EST
| Atlanta | Philadelphia | ||||||||
 | Julio Teheran |  | Adam Morgan | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ATL (-113) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.748 | 0.328 | 18.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.625 | 0.290 | 13.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.221 | 0.625 | 0.277 | 23.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.293 | 0.901 | 0.388 | 15.90% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs L | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Julio Teheran – Teheran has been terrible on the road all season. I don’t typically like to overemphasize home/road splits, but when they are this severe, it’s hard to ignore. In home starts, he has a 23.6% strikeout rate and .253 wOBA allowed, while on the road, his strikeout rate is 16.7% with a .426 wOBA allowed. The Phillies have beat up Braves pitching in this series and they were 11th in the league in runs scored in July. They don’t strike out a lot against right-handed pitching. Teheran is a long shot tournament option at best today, with more downside than upside. PITCHER RATING – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 124 – SIERA: 4.20 – ERA: 4.71 – K%: 20.0% – BB%: 9.3% – HR/9: 1.30
Salaries: $8,100 FD, $6,900 DK
Adam Morgan – Morgan shocked us with a quality start in Toronto, and has been respectable in his six major league starts. We are still dealing with a very small sample size, but the underlying numbers don’t support the strong results. He has a very low strikeout rate and a heavy fly ball tilt, especially against right-handed hitters. His xFIP of 5.41 shows what could happen if a few more of these fly balls leave the park. There is a little bit of upside facing a struggling Braves offense, but I’m certainly not recommending him. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 33 – SIERA: 5.07 – ERA: 4.05 – K%: 14.2% – BB%: 7.1% – HR/9: 1.62
Salaries: $5,500 FD, $4,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
The Braves offense has been ice cold, and it’s difficult to recommend anybody from this team as an elite play, even against a weak pitcher.
Secondary Plays:
Cameron Maybin – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .354 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 117
Philadelphia
Teheran has had big struggles with left-handed batters, allowing a .389 wOBA. Despite the team’s hot streak, none of the Phillies left-handed hitters are strong enough to recommend as individual elite plays, but they can be considered to fill in a roster spot.
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Howard – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .305 – ISO: .245 – wRC+: 121
Odubel Herrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .321 – ISO: .147 – wRC+: 109
Cesar Hernandez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .295 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .074 – wRC+: 86
Domonic Brown – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .290 – OBP: .306 – ISO: .089 – wRC+: 82
Tampa Bay at Boston – 1:35 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | Boston | ||||||||
 | Jake Odorizzi |  | Wade Miley | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.649 | 0.287 | 26.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.679 | 0.303 | 18.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.699 | 0.311 | 17.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.759 | 0.334 | 20.10% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs L | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi has been very good this season for Tampa, with some help from a fortunate BABIP and HR/FB%. He brings a good walk rate and average strikeout rate, which lead to a very pedestrian SIERA despite the low ERA. He is a reverse splits pitcher, allowing harder contact to right-handed hitters throughout his career. The Red Sox have been hitting well and present a tough matchup for Odorizzi. He doesn’t have enough upside to get excited about playing against Boston, while the downside is just as easy to see. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 97 – SIERA: 3.83 – ERA: 2.76 – K%: 20.5% – BB%: 6.5% – HR/9: 0.74
Salaries: $8,600 FD, $8,100 DK
Wade Miley – Miley has showed flashes of getting his stuff together, but he just can’t seem to keep things on track for long. He has been hit hard by right-handed batters to a .349 wOBA and Tampa is much better suited to face left-handed pitchers. This does not look like a good spot for Miley today. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 120 – SIERA: 4.42 – ERA: 4.65 – K%: 16.9% – BB%: 9.0% – HR/9: 0.83
Salaries: $7,400 FD, $6,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – It feels like Longoria is having a down year, but there are no issues with his skills against left-handed pitching. I am still expecting his home runs to come back up, but even if they don’t, he will continue to produce runs and RBI from the heart of the order.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .424 – ISO: .158 – wRC+: 152
Logan Forsythe – Forsythe doesn’t seem to get enough credit for his ability to hit left-handed pitching. He gets a favorable lineup spot and fills a tough second base position at a fair price with upside.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .401 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .313 – wRC+: 165
Secondary Plays:
Brandon Guyer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .325 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .123 – wRC+: 112
Boston
David Ortiz – Despite the reverse splits of Odorizzi, Ortiz has been too good to back off of against right-handed pitching. His has more walks than strikeouts with a home run every 14 at bats against righties.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .371 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .275 – wRC+: 136
Secondary Plays:
Hanley Ramirez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .326 – OBP: .307 – ISO: .174 – wRC+: 104
Brock Holt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .339 – OBP: .363 – ISO: .110 – wRC+: 113