MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 9th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST
| Toronto | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Marco Estrada |  | Masahiro Tanaka | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY (-135) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.220 | 0.677 | 0.298 | 18.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.657 | 0.287 | 24.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.730 | 0.320 | 20.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.691 | 0.300 | 25.60% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Marco Estrada – Estrada has been pitching well and has been a useful DFS pitcher on several occasions, but this is a bad matchup for his skill set. He is a high fly ball pitcher who keeps the ball in the zone and looks for fly ball outs. The Yankees are packed with left-handed power in a good ballpark for home runs. He is an easy pitcher to avoid today. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 111 – SIERA: 4.34 – ERA: 3.40 – K%: 18.9% – BB%: 7.5% – HR/9: 0.89
Salaries: $8,600 FD, $6,100 DK
Masahiro Tanaka – Similar to Estrada, Tanaka is generally a pitcher to target, but a matchup with Toronto does not suit his skill set. He is allowing a high fly ball rate and a lot of home runs while keeping his pitches in the zone. He certainly has much more upside than Estrada with the ability to put up a dominating performance if everything falls his way, but it’s a risky play. Pitcher Rating – 6.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 93 – SIERA: 3.32 – ERA: 3.84 – K%: 23.1% – BB%: 5.1% – HR/9: 1.54
Salaries: $9,700 FD, $9,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
It is difficult to project where the scoring will come from in the Toronto lineup today. With this much right-handed power, there is a lot of home run upside, but no single play that stands out. All these big batters are strong tournament plays for their power, but risky due to Tanaka’s ability to put up dominating performances.
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .258 – wRC+:144
Jose Bautista – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .378 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .292 – wRC+:142
Edwin Encarnacion – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .361 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .249 – wRC+:130
Troy Tulowitzki – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .176 – wRC+:104
NY Yankees
Most of the Yankees bats are in play today, but the left-handed power hitters jump to the top of the list. Teixeira and McCann are elite plays due to their power potential. Ellsbury and Gardner are strong plays from the top of the order, and don’t overlook Alex Rodriguez despite not having the platoon advantage.
Mark Teixeira – Teixeira has six home runs in his last nine games and dominant numbers against right-handed pitching this season.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .420 – OBP: .363 – ISO: .362 – wRC+:172
Brian McCann – McCann is a top target at the catcher position with his power upside.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .337 – OBP: .319 – ISO: .219 – wRC+:114
Secondary Plays:
Brett Gardner – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .365 – OBP: .376 – ISO: .168 – wRC+:133
Jacoby Ellsbury – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .325 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .102 – wRC+:106
Alex Rodriguez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .364 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .211 – wRC+:132
Boston at Detroit – 1:08 PM EST
| Boston | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Henry Owens |  | Justin Verlander | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-121) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 57.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.697 | 0.308 | 18.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.385 | 0.000 | 0.391 | 7.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.306 | 0.000 | 0.362 | 16.40% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Henry Owens – Owens first big league start was decent, allowing three runs in five innings with five strikeouts in a tough situation at Yankee Stadium. Things don’t get much easier today against a right-handed heavy Detroit lineup. He is a top prospect with very good numbers in the minors, so there is certainly upside here, but he is a risky play in a difficult matchup. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Salaries: $5,100 FD, $6,600 DK
Justin Verlander – The best I can say is that I have no idea what to expect from Verlander. Because of the fact that he is a former Cy Young Award winner and MVP, it’s tempting to believe that his ten strikeout, one run performance from two starts ago in Tamps is real. In three of his last five starts, he has allowed just one run and has an overall 23:2 K:BB ratio in his last five starts. However, he’s still been hit very hard in two of those starts, having given up five runs to Kansas City and seven runs to Baltimore. I can’t blame you if you want to take a shot in a GPP, but I am still leaning towards believing in his season stats that show a very hittable pitcher. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 57 – SIERA: 4.36 – ERA: 5.05 – K%: 16.7% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 1.58
Salaries: $7,500 FD, $6,300 DK
Batter Grind Down
Boston
David Ortiz – Ortiz homered again last night, making it three home runs in the past four days. His numbers against right-handed pitching are elite in every way.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .400 – OBP: .391 – ISO: .287 – wRC+:155
Secondary Plays:
Brock Holt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .322 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .102 – wRC+:101
Pablo Sandoval – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .169 – wRC+:113
Detroit
JD Martinez – Martinez is one of the top plays of the day. He has a .394 wOBA over the past month and has a home run every 13 at bats over the past two seasons against left-handed pitching.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .360 – OBP: .370 – ISO: .224 – wRC+:129
Victor Martinez – V-Mart has been outstanding against left-handed pitching this season. His great plate discipline has lead to a .400 OBP against lefties. The middle of this lineup is full of potential today.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .372 – OBP: .400 – ISO: .119 – wRC+:137
Ian Kinsler – Kinsler has an elite contact rate against left-handed pitching and gets a premier lineup spot, making him a top play at second base.
2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .125 – wRC+:115
Secondary Plays:
Rajai Davis – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .327 – OBP: .314 – ISO: .186 – wRC+:106
Minnesota at Cleveland – 1:10 PM EST
| Minnesota | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Phil Hughes |  | Corey Kluber | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-155) | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.669 | 0.291 | 18.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.713 | 0.314 | 26.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.293 | 0.785 | 0.340 | 18.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.214 | 0.546 | 0.240 | 29.00% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Phil Hughes – Phil Hughes – While Hughes is still exhibiting great control, his severe drop in strikeout rate from last season has made him virtually unplayable in DFS. He has 18 consecutive starts with five or fewer strikeouts while continuing to give up home runs at an alarming rate. There is no reason to use him in any format. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 141 – SIERA: 4.34 – ERA: 4.14 – K%: 14.1% – BB%: 2.4% – HR/9: 1.72
Salaries: $7,200 FD, $7,000 DK
Corey Kluber – Kluber has slowed down over the past month with 12 runs allowed over his last three starts, and no more than seven strikeouts in any of his past six starts. That being said, he still has elite upside that makes him a solid tournament play on a day when there are other aces that should keep his ownership level down. Minnesota is in the bottom third of the league in strikeout rate and wOBA against right-handed pitching. Pitcher Rating – 8.5
Salaries: $11,000 FD, $10,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
There are much better options around the league than playing batters against Corey Kluber.
Secondary Plays:
Cleveland
Michael Brantley – Brantley has remarkable plate discipline against right-handed pitching and has been hot recently, with a .425 wOBA and .352 average over the past 30 days.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .382 – OBP: .403 – ISO: .167 – wRC+:147
Carlos Santana – Santana has been much better against right-handed pitching this season and has home run upside against Hughes.
2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .345 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .219 – wRC+:122
Secondary Plays:
Francisco Lindor – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .294 – OBP: .286 – ISO: .127 – wRC+:86
NY Mets at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM EST
| NY Mets | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Bartolo Colon |  | Chris Archer | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-168) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.278 | 0.723 | 0.314 | 16.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.604 | 0.271 | 25.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.741 | 0.321 | 19.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.625 | 0.281 | 24.90% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bartolo Colon – Take a look at the stat line below and note Colon’s walk rate; 2.6%. That is exceptional, especially when combined with a respectable 18% strikeout rate. Of course, having hittable stuff and always being in the zone leads to being at the mercy of BABIP and plenty of bad starts, but it also gives you the chance to pitch deep into games with the occasional gem. In a pitcher’s park against a Tampa team that struggles with right-handed pitching, Colon is a potential tournament play. He is always at risk of a blowup, so using him is not for the faint of heart, and certainly not for cash games, but there is upside here. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 127 – SIERA: 3.94 – ERA: 3.76 – K%: 18.0% – BB%: 2.6% – HR/9: 1.20
Salaries: $7,100 FD, $7,400 DK
Chris Archer – Archer was the pitcher to own in a high-profile matchup against Chris Sale earlier in the week. Since a rough start at Kansas City in early July, Archer has things back on track with a 33:4 K:BB ratio and five runs allowed in 27 innings. Every number in his ledger is ace quality; high strikeouts and low walks with a 13.5% swinging strike rate. A strong play in all formats. Pitcher Rating – 9.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 148 – SIERA: 2.59 – ERA: 2.54 – K%: 30.7% – BB%: 5.8% – HR/9: 0.79
Salaries: $11,200 FD, $12,300 DK
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
You shouldn’t be playing any Mets in cash games against Chris Archer. With the huge power upside that Lucas Duda has showed recently, he can be considered a long shot tournament option.
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .351 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .233 – wRC+: 129
Tampa Bay
It’s tough to play anyone in the Tampa lineup against right-handed pitching. John Jaso can be considered as a secondary play with his strong plate discipline and catcher eligibility, and Grady Sizemore needs to be mentioned, as he has been red hot with three home runs in the last five games.
Secondary Plays:
John Jaso – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .376 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .175 – wRC+: 146
Grady Sizemore – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .275 – OBP: .263 – ISO: .130 – wRC+: 73
Colorado at Washington – 1:35 PM EST
| Colorado | Washington | ||||||||
 | Yohan Flande |  | Max Scherzer | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-248) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.176 | 0.553 | 0.250 | 16.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.658 | 0.291 | 25.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 0.773 | 0.334 | 13.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.197 | 0.551 | 0.245 | 33.00% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Yohan Flande – Flande is a high ground ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate. Being a heavy underdog on the road with low K upside makes him easy to ignore. While he can’t be used as a play, the high ground ball rate gives him a chance to limit the damage against him, making him tough to target batters against. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 28 – SIERA: 3.59 – ERA: 3.54 – K%: 14.8% – BB%: 7.0% – HR/9: 0.64
Salaries: $4,800 FD, $4,200 DK
Max Scherzer – A look at Scherzer’s game log shows a few more below average starts than you might expect from a runs allowed perspective. But, the strikeouts continue to be there, and he’s always capable of a monster game. He has six starts with double-digit strikeouts and 16 starts with two or fewer runs allowed. A home start against Colorado seems more likely to produce one of his dominant starts. The Nationals are a huge favorite at home. It’s a tough call between the top aces on the mound today, but you can make a strong case for Scherzer being at the top of the list. Pitcher Rating – 9.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 156 – SIERA: 2.59 – ERA: 2.31 – K%: 30.0% – BB%: 3.7% – HR/9: 0.75
Salaries: $12,300 FD, $13,200 DK
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
There is no reason to use any Colorado batters against Scherzer.
Secondary Plays:
Washington
Yohan Flande has a 63% ground ball rate, making him tough to get excited about playing against him. Some of Washington’s right-handed batters can be considered as secondary plays on sites where their salaries are favorable. Bryce Harper is in play every day, and shouldn’t be a popular target in a lefty-lefty matchup.
Secondary Plays:
Bryce Harper – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .449 – OBP: .452 – ISO: .272 – wRC+:192
Ryan Zimmerman – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .317 – ISO: .190 – wRC+:113
Yunel Escobar – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .312 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .107 – wRC+:98
Anthony Rendon – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .362 – OBP: .400 – ISO: .053 – wRC+:132
Wilson Ramos – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .261 – OBP: .286 – ISO: .063 – wRC+:62