MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 13 - Page Three

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-09-13 13:56:44

Houston at LA Angels – 3:35 PM EST

Houston					LA Angels
			Mike Fiers					Andrew Heaney
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA (-104)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.215	0.617	0.271	0.239	SP vs. Left	0.23	0.575	0.255	0.242
SP vs. Right	0.226	0.699	0.304	0.257	SP vs. Right	0.266	0.779	0.338	0.146
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs L		Batter Splits			ANA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers – Prior to his four run, five inning outing against Oakland on Monday, Fiers had allowed just two runs in his previous four starts. His walk rate is a concerning 11.9% over the past month, but he is a guy who has big strikeout upside when everything is working. Overall, his spotty control moves him down my list of starters a bit, but he is still an intriguing tournament option in a good park against an Angels team that is 29th in the league in scoring over the past month. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 155 – SIERA: 3.88 – ERA: 3.66 – K%: 23.7% – BB%: 9.0% – HR/9: 0.99

Andrew Heaney – Heaney’s ERA is starting to catch up to his SIERA, but it still has further to fall. He has a high fly ball rate and low strikeout rate against right-handed batters along with a 35.7% hard hit rate, which all adds up to look like trouble against a powerful Houston offense. If I’m using a pitcher in this game, it will be his opponent. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 84 – SIERA: 4.14 – ERA: 3.52 – K%: 17.8% – BB%: 4.9% – HR/9: 0.85

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $7,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

Houston

There is some big upide in the Houston bats today. Andrew Heaney is allowing a .312 wOBA to right-handed batters, but that number will go up as his .275 BABIP and 8% HR/FB rate start to even out with his 35.7% hard hit rate leading to more damage. He allows a 45% fly ball rate to righties, so this is a good place to look for home run upside.

Elite Plays

Carlos Correa – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .393 – OBP: .356 – ISO: .278 – wRC+: 153
Jose Altuve – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .399 – OBP: .435 – ISO: .125 – wRC+: 157
George Springer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .405 – OBP: .400 – ISO: .260 – wRC+: 161

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Gomez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .286 – OBP: .301 – ISO: .132 – wRC+: 75
Evan Gattis – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .281- OBP: .267 – ISO: .185 – wRC+: 75
Marwin Gonzalez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .367- OBP: .355 – ISO: .191 – wRC+: 135

LA Angels

Mike Fiers has no pronounced splits, and is a pretty solid pitcher all around. The big bats at the top of the Angels lineup are certainly in play and have upside in every matchup.

Elite Plays

Mike Trout – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .405 – OBP: .393 – ISO: .280 – wRC+: 167
Albert Pujols – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .353 – OBP: .321 – ISO: .251 – wRC+: 130
Kole Calhoun – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .328 – ISO: .183 – wRC+: 122

Secondary Plays:

San Diego at San Francisco – 4:05 PM EST

San Diego					San Francisco
			Odrisamer Despaigne					Mike Leake
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-150)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.262	0.751	0.330	0.107	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.763	0.333	0.147
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.711	0.311	0.171	SP vs. Right	0.229	0.659	0.288	0.202
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Odrisamer Despaigne – Despaigne returns to the Padres rotation with his low strikeout rate. He gets by as a real life pitcher by inducing weak contact and ground balls, but he has no use as a DFS option with no upside. Pitcher Rating – 3.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 121 – SIERA: 4.41 – ERA: 5.65 – K%: 12.4% – BB%: 5.5% – HR/9: 1.19

Salaries: $4,000 FD, $6,000 DK

Mike Leake – Leake is a very bland pitcher, who is rarely good enough to pay off his salary. He has a nice matchup at home against the Padres and should have a good chance for a win, but there’s certainly not much upside in a guy with a 16.6% strikeout rate. He is not the worst SP2 you can find, but I’m looking elsewhere. Pitcher Rating – 5.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 168 – SIERA: 3.96 – ERA: 3.70 – K%: 16.6% – BB%: 6.0% – HR/9: 1.02

Salaries: $6,600 FD, $6,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Mike Leake is a little bit better against right-handed batters, but is generally an annoying pitcher to play against as it seems like he should get hit harder than he does. The Padres top bats are tournament only options, there are better places to look for cash game offense.

Secondary Plays:

Justin Upton – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .367 – OBP: .361 – ISO: .227 – wRC+: 137
Matt Kemp – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .321 – OBP: .310 – ISO: .172 – wRC+: 106

San Francisco

Despaigne is allowing a .337 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .349 wOBA to right-handed batters. He allows a lot of contact and is worth playing against.

Elite Plays:

Buster Posey – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .370 – OBP: .392 – ISO: .147 – wRC+: 142
Brandon Belt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .363 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .201 – wRC+: 137
Matt Duffy – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .144 – wRC+: 133

Secondary Plays:

Joe Panik – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .369 – OBP: .379 – ISO: .155 – wRC+: 141
Marlon Byrd – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .354 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .192 – wRC+: 131

Colorado at Seattle – 4:10 PM EST

Colorado					Seattle
			Kyle Kendrick					James Paxton
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.295	0.893	0.384	0.15	SP vs. Left	0.314	0.796	0.359	0.222
SP vs. Right	0.271	0.779	0.34	0.118	SP vs. Right	0.209	0.602	0.267	0.180
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league, and it is not just a product of Coors Field as his road ERA sits at 5.72. An 11.9% strikeout rate is just not going to cut it. He is unplayable. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 122 – SIERA: 5.11 – ERA: 6.25 – K%: 11.9% – BB%: 7.0% – HR/9: 2.06

Salaries: $4,800 FD, $4,500 DK

James Paxton – Paxton comes back to Seattle for his first start since May. He is expected to develop into a good major league starter, but he hasn’t shown that ability yet. A home start against Colorado is a good situation, but at this point he can’t be considered anything more than a deep SP2 flyer. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 58 – SIERA: 4.42 – ERA: 3.70 – K%: 17.9% – BB%: 8.8% – HR/9: 1.08

Salaries: $7,100 FD, $7,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

James Paxton has displayed reverse splits for his career, but we’re still dealing with a very small sample size, so I’m not putting a tremendous amount of stock into his career .357 wOBA against lefties, especially since it comes with a .419 BABIP. He has been good enough against right-handed batters that I’m not going to look at any Rockies righties outside of Nolan Arenado. Both Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez have ugly numbers for the season against left-handed pitching, but they can be considered GPP options in any matchup.

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Gonzalez – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .231 – OBP: .226 – ISO: .119 – wRC+: 23
Nolan Arenado – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .275 – OBP: .311 – ISO: .132 – wRC+: 53

Seattle

Kyle Kendrick is a pitcher you want to be in play against. The Mariners are stackable, or you can use any hitters towards the top of the order in cash games. Kendrick is allowing a .419 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .371 wOBA to righties.

Elite Plays

Robinson Cano – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .167 – wRC+: 122
Nelson Cruz – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .389 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .264 – wRC+: 154
Kyle Seager – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .331 – ISO: .172 – wRC+: 109

Secondary Plays:

Seth Smith – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .338 – ISO: .204 – wRC+: 120
Ketel Marte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .315 – OBP: .361 – ISO: .048 – wRC+: 103
Logan Morrison – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .322 – ISO: .208 – wRC+: 114

LA Dodgers at Arizona – 4:10 PM EST

LA Dodgers					Arizona
			Zack Greinke					Patrick Corbin
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.226	0.594	0.264	0.226	SP vs. Left	0.167	0.545	0.237	0.259
SP vs. Right	0.214	0.586	0.258	0.261	SP vs. Right	0.286	0.822	0.353	0.230
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs L		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Greinke – Greinke was not at his best in his last start against the Angels, but still posted his 26th game out of 28 starts allowing three earned runs or less. That is an extremely impressive feat, and that type of consistency always makes him an option. Because his strikeout rate hovers around the 24% mark, his price is usually not worth it in tournaments, but in cash game, elite consistency is worth paying for. Pitcher Rating – 9
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 192 – SIERA: 3.27 – ERA: 1.68 – K%: 23.7% – BB%: 4.4% – HR/9: 0.56

Salaries: $12,000 FD, $11,800 DK

Patrick Corbin – I was not expecting this type of success this soon from Corbin after Tommy John surgery. But, the results have been there. His strikeout and walk numbers and SIERA are very similar to his opponent, Zack Greinke, who could win the Cy Young Award. I can see the argument for using Corbin today in tournaments, as very few people are likely to be on him in a matchup against Greinke and the Dodgers. It’s definitely a longshot play, but he has several very strong starts on his resume this season. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 62 – SIERA: 3.23 – ERA: 3.32 – K%: 23.6% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 1.30

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $8,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Patrick Corbin has allowed a .353 wOBA to right-handed batters, but he’s actually been much better than that, as those numbers are skewed by a high BABIP and HR/FB. The Dodgers right-handed specialists, Justin Ruggiano and Scott Van Slyke can be considered where priced well, but this is not a game to target a lot of offense.

Secondary Plays:

Justin Ruggiano – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .421 – OBP: .375 – ISO: .320 – wRC+: 175
Scott Van Slyke – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .376 – OBP: .411 – ISO: .171 – wRC+: 142

Arizona

Zack Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and is allowing a .248 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .208 wOBA to right-handed batters.

Secondary Plays:

Kansas City at Baltimore – 8:00 PM EST

Kansas City					Baltimore
			Johnny Cueto					Wei-Yin Chen
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
								0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.196	0.563	0.254	0.242	SP vs. Left	0.251	0.65	0.285	0.169
SP vs. Right	0.215	0.64	0.281	0.232	SP vs. Right	0.267	0.786	0.339	0.190
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs L		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Johnny Cueto – Cueto continues to struggle as he has now allowed 21 runs in his last four starts. His strikeout rate is down to 16.4% over the past month, and we need to stop talking about him in the ace category until he turns things around. He certainly has it in him to come out with a big game at any time, but he’s risky to pay for right now. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 180 – SIERA: 3.64 – ERA: 3.24 – K%: 21.7% – BB%: 4.9% – HR/9: 0.80

Salaries: $10,500 FD, $9,600 DK

Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is very steady pitcher with low upside. He is right at league average in every category. He has allowed 2-4 runs in 20 of his 27 starts. He usually gives up a home run or two, and this Royals team cancels out any strikeout ability he has, making him basically un-useable today. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 165 – SIERA: 3.97 – ERA: 3.48 – K%: 19.4% – BB%: 5.2% – HR/9: 1.52

Salaries: $8,000 FD, $7,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals continue to show that they are a team worth stacking, as they are just relentless in their attack. They strike out at a considerably lower rate than any team in the league. Wei-Yin Chen allows a high fly ball rate and a .354 wOBA to right-handed batters, so Ben Zobrist, Lorenzo Cain and Kendrys Morales are places to look first.

Elite Plays

Lorenzo Cain – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .418 – OBP: .401 – ISO: .240 – wRC+: 170
Ben Zobrist – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .397 – OBP: .413 – ISO: .185 – wRC+: 157
Kendrys Morales – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .319 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .109 – wRC+: 101

Secondary Plays:

Eric Hosmer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .314 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .094 – wRC+: 97
Alcides Escobar – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .289 – OBP: .314 – ISO: .075 – wRC+: 80
Jonny Gomes – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .369 – OBP: .398 – ISO: .207 – wRC+: 135

Baltimore

While Cueto has not been pitching his best, he’s still not a pitcher to play heavily against. The big Baltimore bats can be considered in tournaments, and right-handed bat can be used sparingly as Cueto has reverse splits this season.

Secondary Plays:

Chris Davis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .386 – OBP: .345 – ISO: .264 – wRC+: 151
Adam Jones – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .332 – OBP: .307 – ISO: .202 – wRC+: 109

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