MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 13th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST
| Toronto | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | R.A. Dickey |  | Masahiro Tanaka | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY (-125) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.230 | 0.688 | 0.305 | 15.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.655 | 0.285 | 23.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.738 | 0.322 | 18.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.679 | 0.294 | 25.60% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
R.A. Dickey – There is almost no way to know what to expect from Dickey on any given day, he always qualifies as a play on and play against pitcher in tournaments. With the Yankees power and ballpark, I lean towards playing Yankees bats. He is certainly unplayable in cash games. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 188 – SIERA: 4.72 – ERA: 4.01 – K%: 14.8% – BB%: 7.4% – HR/9: 1.10
Salaries: $7,800 FD, $7,300 DK
Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka is a strong pitcher who is usually in play, but a matchup with Toronto is not a place I want to be using him. He is always a risk to allow home runs with a 1.51 HR/9 allowed to right-handed batters, and you don’t need me to tell you that Toronto can bring some right-handed power. If you want to take a shot on him in tournaments, there is certainly a chance that he can pick up a win and some strikeouts. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 136 – SIERA: 3.36 – ERA: 3.57 – K%: 23.1% – BB%: 4.8% – HR/9: 1.46
Salaries: $9,400 FD, $10,100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Overlook Toronto at your own peril. They certainly do not look like cash game options today, as it’s tough to pay for high priced hitters against a pitcher like Masahiro Tanaka, but they can go off at any time against anybody. Any of the big hitters are worth a look in tournaments.
Elite Plays
Josh Donaldson – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .394 – OBP: .364 – ISO: .267 – wRC+: 152
Edwin Encarnacion – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .386 – OBP: .362 – ISO: .285 – wRC+: 147
Jose Bautista – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .386 – OBP: .369 – ISO: .289 – wRC+: 147
Secondary Plays:
Chris Colabello – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .383 – OBP: .378 – ISO: .177 – wRC+: 145
Ben Revere – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .329 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .072 – wRC+: 107
NY Yankees
The Yankess are a top tournament team against R.A. Dickey, as if the knuckleball is not working today, they could put up a ton of runs in a hurry. Target the left-handed batters first, but he is a relatively similar pitcher to both righties and lefties, so everyone is in play if stacking.
Elite Plays
Brian McCann – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .329 – ISO: .237 – wRC+: 119
Brett Gardner – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .348 – ISO: .152 – wRC+: 111
Jacoby Ellsbury – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .315 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .108 – wRC+: 98
Alex Rodriguez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .211 – wRC+: 118
Carlos Beltran – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .357 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .203 – wRC+: 127
Secondary Plays:
Chase Headley – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .311 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .108 – wRC+: 95
St. Louis at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM EST
| St. Louis | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Michael Wacha |  | Raisel Iglesias | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-126) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.595 | 0.266 | 19.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.287 | 0.765 | 0.337 | 16.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.680 | 0.299 | 21.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.169 | 0.616 | 0.270 | 35.80% |
| Batter Splits | STL vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Michael Wacha – Wacha had his worst start of the season last week against the Cubs, but there doesn’t look to be big reason for concern. Prior to that start, he had allowed just four runs in his previous six starts. While that looks good, the downside here is that he really hasn’t been striking out enough batters to be a big upside fantasy pitcher. A good start for him is six or seven innings with six strikeouts and a win. Now, that I very good, and completely worth rostering, certainly as an SP2, I just think it’s worth pointing out that he may be better in real life than he is for DFS purposes. Pitcher Rating – 7.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 161 – SIERA: 3.88 – ERA: 2.96 – K%: 20.3% – BB%: 6.4% – HR/9: 0.78
Salaries: $8,900 FD, $8,600 DK
Raisel Iglesias – Iglesias crashed back down to earth in his last start against Pittsburgh, lasting just three innings and allowing five runs. In his three starts prior to that he had racked up 33 strikeouts in 21 innings. We need to remember that this is an inexperienced pitcher who has only made 15 major league starts, so these ups and downs are likely to continue. His strong strikeout rate makes him an excellent GPP option, but dangerous in cash games. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 90 – SIERA: 3.21 – ERA: 4.81 – K%: 27.0% – BB%: 7.2% – HR/9: 1.10
Salaries: $8,000 FD, $8,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Raisel Iglesias is elite against right-handed batters, but just OK against lefties with a .337 wOBA allowed. Don’t go out of your way to target Cardinals hitters, but their better left-handed bats can be considered where their prices are low.
Secondary Plays:
Matt Carpenter – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .373 – OBP: .376 – ISO: .221 – wRC+: 139
Jason Heyward – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .350 – OBP: .353 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 123
Cincinnati
Michael Wacha is allowing a wOBA under .300 to both right and left-handed batters and strikes out 20% on both sides. This is not a recommended game to look for offense.
Secondary Plays:
Detroit at Cleveland – 1:10 PM EST
| Detroit | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Justin Verlander |  | Trevor Bauer | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.666 | 0.294 | 19.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.724 | 0.321 | 22.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.296 | 0.793 | 0.347 | 17.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.727 | 0.319 | 22.10% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Justin Verlander – Verlander has reeled off six straight quality starts. His strikeout rate is up to 23.7% over the past month and he’s maintaining a solid walk rate. The Indians can be a tough lineup against right-handed pitching, but Verlander has some upside and he is still priced far enough below the aces that you can use him in GPP’s or even as a cash game SP2.
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 99 – SIERA: 4.14 – ERA: 3.43 – K%: 19.8% – BB%: 5.8% – HR/9: 0.99
Salaries: $8,800 FD, $9,600 DK
Trevor Bauer – Bauer has been all over the map with his results recently. His control comes and goes making him a risky play, though he does have enough strikeout upside to be useful in many of his starts. Detroit has enough firepower on offense to make me weary of using Bauer today. He can be considered a GPP long shot, but that’s about it. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 165 – SIERA: 4.17 – ERA: 4.47 – K%: 23.0% – BB%: 10.5% – HR/9: 1.25
Salaries: $7,900 FD, $8,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Trevor Bauer is all or nothing, and when he can be hurt by both right and left-handed batters. Tigers bats are GPP plays in this matchup.
Secondary Plays:
Miguel Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .421 – OBP: .443 – ISO: .203 – wRC+: 172
J.D. Martinez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .379 – OBP: .335 – ISO: .271 – wRC+: 142
Ian Kinsler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .137 – wRC+: 116
Anthony Gose – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .322 – OBP: .334 – ISO: .124 – wRC+: 103
Cleveland
The Indians top batters can hit against anybody, but should be used sparingly against Verlander with the way he is pitching right now.
Secondary Plays:
Jason Kipnis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .395 – OBP: .426 – ISO: .152 – wRC+: 155
Michael Brantley – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .395 – OBP: .408 – ISO: .194 – wRC+: 155
Washington at Miami – 1:10 PM EST
| Washington | Miami | ||||||||
 | Max Scherzer |  | Brad Hand | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-175) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.691 | 0.303 | 25.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.220 | 0.575 | 0.257 | 19.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.589 | 0.259 | 32.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.293 | 0.819 | 0.357 | 13.20% |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs L | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Max Scherzer – I can’t even remember the last time I put Scherzer on one of my rosters, and it won’t happen today either. He absolutely still has elite upside that can only be matched a small handful of aces, but he has been allowing a lot of runs since the All-Star Break. It’s really mostly bad luck with a high BABIP and high HR/FB, as his strikeout and walk rates are still excellent. This is great matchup against Miami, and I expect him to be highly owned. I’m certainly not trying to talk you out of using him, he is an ace, but any way I slice it, I prefer Chris Sale ahead of him in all formats and Zack Greinke over him in cash games. Pitcher Rating – 9
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 190 – SIERA: 2.70 – ERA: 3.03 – K%: 29.7% – BB%: 3.4% – HR/9: 1.14
Salaries: $10,500 FD, $11,500 DK
Brad Hand – Hand has run into some trouble recently, allowing 12 runs in his last two starts, and three home runs in two innings against the Mets in his last start. His skill set is not as bad as his reputation suggests, but there’s really no reason to consider using him today against Scherzer. Pitcher Rating – 4.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 83 – SIERA: 3.96 – ERA: 5.20 – K%: 16.3% – BB%: 5.6% – HR/9: 0.76
Salaries: $6,000 FD, $4,300 DK
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Brad Hand is striking out just 12.6% of right-handed batters, which could spell trouble against this right-handed heavy lineup. He has a solid groundball rate, combined with a tough ballpark for power, but I expect to see plenty of hits and runs from this Nationals lineup.
Elite Plays
Bryce Harper – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .422 – OBP: .437 – ISO: .232 – wRC+: 170
Jayson Werth – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .335 – OBP: .257 – ISO: .318 – wRC+: 111
Anthony Rendon – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .075 – wRC+: 108
Secondary Plays:
Ian Desmond – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .339 – OBP: .322 – ISO: .198 – wRC+: 113
Yunel Escobar – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .313 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .078 – wRC+:96
Wilson Ramos – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .267 – OBP: .274 – ISO: .103 – wRC+: 65
Miami
While Max Scherzer hasn’t been at the top of his game, there is no reason to play batters against him.
Secondary Plays:
Boston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM EST
| Boston | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Rich Hill |  | Drew Smyly | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-147) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.679 | 0.336 | 33.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.177 | 0.505 | 0.224 | 29.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.500 | 1.125 | 0.481 | 25.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.770 | 0.335 | 20.20% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Rich Hill – A blast from the past, Rich Hill will make his first major league start since 2009. He has a handful of bullpen innings from 2012-2014, but we really have very little idea what to expect from him. He faces a Tamps team that hits left-handed pitching well, and I don’t see any reason to take a risk on him today. Pitcher Rating – 3
Salaries: $4,600 FD, $4,000 DK
Drew Smyly – In five starts since coming off the DL, Smyly has looked solid, and showed some upside with a 10 strikeout, seven inning shutout at Baltimore two starts ago. With that being said however, a matchup with the Red Sox, who are second in the league in runs scored over the past month is far from ideal. He is a decent play but pretty far down the list of options today. Pitcher Rating – 5.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 42 – SIERA: 3.42 – ERA: 3.59 – K%: 25.1% – BB%: 5.0% – HR/9: 1.90
Salaries: $7,400 FD, $8,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Boston
As good as Boston has been hitting, this is not a great spot to target them. Drew Smyly has an above average strikeout rate and solid walk rate against both right and left-handed hitters. He does allow a lot of fly balls to right-handed hitters if you want to look for a home run or two in GPP’s.
Secondary Plays:
Mookie Betts – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .153 – wRC+: 108
Xander Bogaerts – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .393 – OBP: .419 – ISO: .109 – wRC+: 149
Rusney Castillo – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .167 – wRC+: 142
Tampa Bay
The numbers we have on Rich Hill are so old that we shouldn’t give them too much weight. Tampa has a lot of guys that hit left-handed pitching well. Evan Longoria, Logan Forsythe and Asdrubal Cabrera are strong plays in all formats, while the cheaper right-handed batters are worth playing at low salaries, but are pinch hit risks as the game moves along.
Elite Plays
Logan Forsythe – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .424 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .333 – wRC+: 179
Evan Longoria – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .417 – OBP: .423 – ISO: .221 – wRC+: 174
Asdrubal Cabrera – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .321 – OBP: .302 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 107
Secondary Plays:
Mikie Mahtook – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .420 – OBP: .378 – ISO: .333 – wRC+: 176
Brandon Guyer – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .359 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .158 – wRC+: 134
J.P. Arencibia – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .368 – OBP: .250 – ISO: .400 – wRC+: 140