MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, October 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-10-05 04:04:51

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Baltimore at Toronto – Tuesday, 8:05 PM ET

Baltimore					Toronto
			Chris Tillman					Marcus Stroman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -150					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.315	8	30.6%	22.6%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.321	11	33.9%	19.0%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.319	11	32.2%	17.1%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.302	10	29.6%	19.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Tillman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,600
					FPPG:		30.4	FPPG:		15.0
					Pitcher Rating:		40.5	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	4	93.0	5.04	3.79	16.5%	9.4%	7.5%	39.3%	36.1%	21.3%
2016	30	97.9	4.61	3.77	19.6%	9.2%	8.7%	41.2%	36.3%	31.5%
2015	31	94.9	4.69	4.99	16.2%	8.6%	7.1%	43.5%	35.4%	26.9%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.58 — K%: 19.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.320
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.15 — K%: 16.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.329

While I don’t love the idea that two playoff teams are only going to get to play one game, I am a huge fan of these wildcard games. It’s basically a Game 7 for both teams, as their respective postseason lives are on the line. The Orioles have a good enough offense to win a World Series, but it can’t feel great hinging their playoff hopes and dreams to Chris Tillman. In 30 starts this season, he posted a 4.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 20%. In his two career postseason starts, he had a 6.75 ERA with nine strikeouts in just over nine innings of work. He comes into this game as a sizable underdog against a Blue Jays’ offense that was ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The only positive statistic that I can find is that Tillman has held Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Edwin Encarnacion each under a .300 batting average in his career.

Marcus Stroman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,800
					FPPG:		28.8	FPPG:		14.7
					Pitcher Rating:		60.9	Pitcher Rank:		3
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	98.0	4.36	3.19	17.8%	9.3%	10.0%	54.3%	20.7%	35.5%
2016	32	96.9	3.62	4.37	19.4%	6.3%	9.3%	60.1%	20.4%	31.8%
2015	4	93.3	3.28	1.67	17.5%	5.8%	7.2%	64.1%	17.9%	21.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.12 — K%: 17.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.98 — K%: 20.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311

Stroman’s big league career really took off with his performances in last year’s playoffs. Despite making only four regular season starts in 2015, he made three starts in the playoffs. He went 1-0 with a 4.19 ERA and ten strikeouts in 19 innings of work. Of the four pitchers in this slate, he has the best chance to pick up a win, as he is listed as a -150 favorite at home. In 32 starts this season, he posted a 3.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.4%. He is an elite ground ball pitcher that typically limits the hard contact against him. The Orioles have gotten the best of this matchup in four meetings this season, but Stroman is one of those pitchers that we can trust in a crucial, winner-take-all situation. Dollar for dollar, he is the best value option in the slate. Targeting Stroman also allows you to load up on the Blue Jays’ offense.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are ranked third in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and they come into the game with the second highest implied team total in the slate. Even though I see Marcus Stroman as a nice value play, we are at a point in the season where it’s not outlandish to target a hitter or two against your starting pitcher. Outside of the Blue Jays, the Orioles are the best offense to target in this slate unless you want to take a chance on some hitters against Noah Syndergaard or Madison Bumgarner. If you look at Stroman’s splits this season, he has allowed a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .302 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

• Orioles Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.334 (3 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.198 (1 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.5% (21 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.59 (12 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.96 (2 of 4)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters, Chris Davis

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the best matchup, they are playing in the best ballpark, and they have the highest implied team total in the slate. They are going to be the chalk in both cash games and tournaments and it’s hard to stomach a Toronto fade in any league format. They draw a favorable matchup against Chris Tillman, who is a fly ball pitcher that has allowed a 31.5% hard contact rate this season. Tillman has also given up a .315 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .319 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The big question here is whether Devon Travis or Ezequiel Carrera will bat leadoff. Regardless of who bats first, they will be an elite option against Tillman.

• Blue Jays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (6 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.54 (1 of 4)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera / Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Michael Saunders, Ezequiel Carrera / Devon Travis

Stackability – GREEN

San Francisco at NY Mets – Wednesday, 8:05 PM ET

San Francisco					NY Mets
			Madison Bumgarner					Noah Syndergaard
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -108					6.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.223	4	25.2%	33.3%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.309	6	31.3%	28.1%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.279	22	32.9%	26.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.252	5	25.6%	30.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$11,200
					FPPG:		39.0	FPPG:		22.3
					Pitcher Rating:		89.5	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	6	103.7	3.04	3.92	28.0%	3.2%	12.4%	42.9%	45.7%	30.5%
2016	34	105.0	3.36	2.74	27.5%	5.9%	11.5%	39.6%	41.5%	31.6%
2015	32	103.5	3.00	2.93	26.9%	4.5%	12.5%	41.7%	35.6%	27.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.04 — K%: 28.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.241
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.75 — K%: 25.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.296

The Giants didn’t have the best offensive finish to their season, but strong pitching put them in position to grab the final wildcard spot in the National League. Even if there are concerns about their offense, they have to feel good with their ace on the mound. In 34 starts this season, Madison Bumgarner posted a 3.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.5% and a walk rate of 5.9%. He is tough on hitters from both sides of the plate and he has as good of a postseason track record as anyone. In 14 career outings, he has a 2.14 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP. I have him ranked slightly below Noah Syndergaard, but that has more to do with the current form of these two offenses. The Mets have the fourth highest team wOBA (.331) over the last month of play.

Noah Syndergaard
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$10,500
					FPPG:		39.2	FPPG:		21.7
					Pitcher Rating:		93.9	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	4	96.5	2.97	2.91	32.3%	8.6%	12.4%	56.6%	26.4%	34.6%
2016	30	97.8	2.95	2.60	29.3%	5.8%	14.2%	51.2%	27.2%	28.1%
2015	24	99.2	2.95	3.24	27.5%	5.1%	12.2%	46.5%	33.6%	24.6%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.68 — K%: 28.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.257
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.13 — K%: 28.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.302

Even though this is only his second season, Noah Syndergaard has already made four postseason appearances (three starts). In 2015, he posted a 3.32 ERA with 26 strikeouts in only 19 innings of work. He has been dominant all season, boasting a 2.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.3% and a walk rate of 5.8%. It’s always tough to predict ownership in these situations, but I could see people leaning toward the more proven commodity in Madison Bumgarner. Personally, I’m giving Syndergaard the slight edge. He is pitching at home and he gets to face a Giants’ offense that was ranked 27th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. This game is set as a pick ‘em and could obviously go either way, but I like the Mets’ chances in this one.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The main goal for everyone in this slate will be to get as much exposure to the Orioles/Blue Jays game as possible. The Giants and Mets have an over/under of 6.0 runs, which is two and a half runs lower than the other game. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Noah Syndergaard has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA this season. Ideally, I’d like to fade the Giants’ offense altogether, but if you have to target someone in this matchup, give an edge to those that can hit from the left side of the plate.

• Giants Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (12 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (27 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 17.3% (2 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.41 (19 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 2.95 (4 of 4)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

The Mets draw one of the most difficult matchups in all of baseball, but they do have a few things going for them in this matchup. On the season, they are ranked tenth in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. They playing at home and their offense has been firing on all cylinders over the last month of play. I’m not sure that’s enough to overcome a matchup against Madison Bumgarner, but that’s something we will have to wait until Wednesday night to find out. On the season, Bumgarner has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA. Is it just me, or does anyone else get the feeling that Yoenis Cespedes is going to be the difference in this one?

• Mets Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.324 (10 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.174 (6 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 22.3% (17 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.14 (25 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.05 (3 of 4)

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – ORANGE