NBA Grind Down: Christmas Edition

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-12-26 02:29:14

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks – 12:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							New York Knicks
			Vegas Total		212.0					Vegas Total		212.0
			Vegas Spread		3.0					Vegas Spread		-3.0
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		107.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.9					Pace Projection +/-		4.0
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Lance Thomas	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	29	11	9	5	3		DvP	23	26	27	20	23
DRPM Rat.	15	22	21	18	25		DRPM Rat.	1	30	1	28	2

Philadelphia 76ers

Merry Christmas everyone! We kick off the holiday slate with the Sixers and Knicks in Madison Square Garden. The Knicks have a mediocre defense, ranking 11th in points allowed per game and 15th in defensive efficiency. The two injuries to keep an eye on are Joel Embiid and J.J. Redick. They are both listed as questionable, but luckily we will know of their availability before lineups lock since this is the first game on the schedule.

Ben Simmons draws the best matchup of the five starters, but he’s not necessarily a true point guard, so it’s always tough to gauge his individual matchup. He sees a significant FP/min and usage boost when Embiid is off the floor, so keep that in mind when building lineups. If Embiid is active, I’ll pass on Simmons in lieu of the other superstars in the slate. If Redick is unable to suit up, Jerryd Bayless and T.J. McConnell would both become viable value targets. Bayless would draw the start, while McConnell would be the first guard off the bench.

Robert Covington is inconsistent at times, but his price is more than reasonable on DraftKings ($6,100). The Knicks are mediocre against small forwards and Covington could fly under the radar given the depth of his position. As for the Sixers’ frontcourt, we have to take a wait and see approach. If Emiid is active, we can fire him up in tournaments. If he is unable to suit up, Dario Saric becomes an elite play in all formats, while Richaun Holmes and Amir Johnson would become viable GPP targets.

Notable Injuries

J.J. Redick (Questionable)
Joel Embiid (Questionable)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.9 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -3.4 (8 of 10)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – TBD (waiting on injuries)

Secondary Plays – TBD (waiting on injuries)

New York Knicks

The Knicks have won six of their last ten games and would make the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They draw a favorable matchup at home against the Sixers, who are ranked second in pace of play and 25th in points allowed per game. The Knicks’ implied total is right around the average of the ten teams in action, but they have the highest projected point differential (+3.3) of the slate.

Jarrett Jack is one of the best values at point guard and one that should get overlooked in most formats. He is averaging 26 fantasy points over his last four games and the Sixers as a whole are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Courtney Lee draws the best matchup of the five starters and should end up being less than 10% owned in tournaments. He has 40 fantasy point type of upside and could be a difference maker in tournaments.

Kristaps Porzingis has been in and out of the lineup thanks to an injury, but is coming off of a 46 fantasy point outing against the Pistons. Of all the superstars in action on Christmas, he could end up being one of the lowest owned in tournaments. With power forward being such a thin position, Porzingis makes a lot of sense on FanDuel where we have to roster two of them. I don’t have a ton of interest in the Knicks’ centers, although Enes Kanter could potentially see a few extra minutes if Kyle O’Quinn is ruled out.

Notable Injuries

Courtney Lee (Probable)
Kyle O’Quinn (Questionable)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.2 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (1 of 10)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.2 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.5 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.4 (2 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (Cash), Jarrett Jack, Courtney Lee

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors – 3:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Golden State Warriors
			Vegas Total		221.5					Vegas Total		221.5
			Vegas Spread		4.5					Vegas Spread		-4.5
			Implied Team Total		108.5					Implied Team Total		113.0
			Pace Projection +/-		3.2					Pace Projection +/-		-0.4
Projected Starters	Jose Calderon	J.R. Smith	LeBron James	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love		Projected Starters	Patrick McCaw	Klay Thompson	Kevin Durant	Draymond Green	Jordan Bell
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	3	18	21	20		DvP	21	23	23	22	9
DRPM Rat.	26	14	12	1	3		DRPM Rat.	11	25	14	28	23

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are always on the Christmas schedule and this is the game that I’m looking forward to the most. These teams have met in three straight championships and there’s a decent chance that they’ll extend the streak to four. Both teams are in good form and with Stephen Curry ruled out for Golden State, the spread for the game is set at only 4.5 points. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 108.5 points, which is the third highest on the board.

LeBron James will be my first or second favorite player overall, depending on the availability of Chris Paul. If Paul is ruled out, James Harden deserves to be the top target, as he is facing his former team and picks up huge usage of Chris Paul is out. James has an extremely high floor and we’ve seen him take over games against the Warriors in the past. If you can find the cap space for James, it’s hard not to like him as a cash game or tournament play.

Kevin Love is one of the most intriguing plays of the slate. He doesn’t have the same minute upside as a couple of the other centers, but he could push for 32-34 minutes if this game stays competitive. Love averages 1.24 FP/min on the season and I don’t expect his ownership to be high. Outside of Love and James, there are two intriguing options off the bench. Dwyane Wade gets his first crack at the Warriors with a Cavaliers’ uniform on and Jeff Green provides nice value on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Injuries

J.R. Smith (Probable)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 111.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (7 of 10)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.6 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (Cash), Dwyane Wade, Jeff Green

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have won nine of their last ten games, even though they’ve been without their star point guard for most of them. They have always put up points against the Cavaliers and this season Cleveland has an exploitable defense. The Warriors have an implied total of 113 points, which is the highest of the slate. Their total is two points lower than their season average, but that has more to do with Curry’s absence than the matchup.

Patrick McCaw has two starts with at least 27 fantasy points this season, but he has struggled with consistency. On Christmas day against the Cavaliers, I’m not going to be forcing him into any lineups. The offense will continue to run through Kevin Durant. Durant is averaging 54 fantasy points over his last four games and has a nice track record against LeBron James in his career. Durant is an elite play on DraftKings ($10,500) in all formats.

Klay Thompson doesn’t see a FP/min or a usage boost with Curry out of the lineup. With that said, he should play around 35 minutes in a favorable matchup against J.R. Smith and Kyle Korver. Thompson is viable in tournaments, but I will not be looking his way in cash games. Draymond Green seems overpriced on FanDuel and underpriced on DraftKings. He makes more sense as a cash game target on DK, but his ownership will be lower on FD. Jordan Bell is worth a look in tournaments if he draws another start at center. Over his last four games, he is averaging 28 fantasy points in 24 minutes per contest.

Notable Injuries

Stephen Curry (Out)
Shaun Livingston (Questionable)
Zaza Pachulia (Questionable)

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 115.0 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.0 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 (6 of 10)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant (DK), Draymond Green (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant (FD), Draymond Green (FD), Klay Thompson, Jordan Bell, Andre Iguodala

Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics – 5:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		203.5					Vegas Total		203.5
			Vegas Spread		5.0					Vegas Spread		-5.0
			Implied Team Total		99.3					Implied Team Total		104.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.9					Pace Projection +/-		0.0
Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat		Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Marcus Smart	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	1	4	10	9	8		DvP	15	6	20	2	7
DRPM Rat.	26	7	2	2	1		DRPM Rat.	7	17	1	13	10

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have been dealing with a number of injuries, but should be at full strength for their Christmas game against the Celtics. This is the only game on the schedule that has a total below 212 points and the Wizards are the least appealing team to target on paper. The Celtics are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency this season. The Wizards have the lowest implied total (99.3 points) and the lowest projected point differential (-6.5) on the board.

John Wall isn’t technically on a minute restriction, but he has yet to play more than 33 since coming back from injury. Kyrie Irving may not have the best DRPM grade, but Wall will see a lot of Marcus Smart in this game. On the season, Boston is ranked third in efficiency and first in DvP against point guards. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter also draw difficult matchups, as the Celtics shut down opposing wings. The two players that have some low-owned tournament appeal are Markieff Morris and Mike Scott. They both are listed as power forwards (thinnest position of the slate) and they are both priced below $5,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Injuries

None

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.3 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -6.5 (10 of 10)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris (GPP), Mike Scott (GPP)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have only won five of their last ten games, but still own the best record in the Eastern Conference. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Wizards, who are ranked between ninth and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Celtics have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is the second lowest on the schedule. This game does have some appeal from an ownership standpoint, but these two teams have the lowest two implied totals.

Kyrie Irving is no stranger to playing on Christmas, although this will be his first holiday game as a member of the Celtics. John Wall is an above-average defender and on the season, the Wizards are ranked eighth against point guards. Irving has some tournament appeal, but the price is high enough that I won’t be looking his way in cash games. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are also intriguing tournament plays. Smart could see a few extra minutes, as they’ll need his defense on Wall and Bradley Beal.

Jayson Tatum has been in good form over his last four games, averaging 31.5 minutes and 28 fantasy points. While Otto Porter is an excellent defender, Tatum spends a lot of his time at power forward. Tatum is on my short list for cash game targets on FanDuel ($5,700). Marcin Gortat is a good low post defender, but he struggles with centers that play on the perimeter. Al Horford is more of a pick and pop player than a true low post scorer, which bodes well for him in this matchup. In his last three games against Gortat, Horford has scored 41, 32, and 42 fantasy points.

Notable Injuries

Shane Larkin (Probable)
Marcus Morris (Questionable)

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (3 of 10)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jayson Tatum (FD), Al Horford (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum (DK), Al Horford (Cash), Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart

Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total		214.5					Vegas Total		214.5
			Vegas Spread		-4.0					Vegas Spread		4.0
			Implied Team Total		109.3					Implied Team Total		105.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.8					Pace Projection +/-		2.2
Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Andre Roberson	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	5	7	4	8	13		DvP	8	19	28	6	22
DRPM Rat.	3	1	2	20	16		DRPM Rat.	1	13	10	26	5

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have the best record in basketball, but could be short-handed on Christmas. Clint Capela and Chris Paul are both listed as questionable and with this being the fourth game to tip off, there is a chance that we won’t know the availability of either player before lineups lock. This puts us in a peculiar position with no late swap in the big contests on FanDuel and DraftKings. The Rockets matchup against the Thunder doesn’t look great on paper, but they still have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the second highest on the board.

If Chris Paul is somehow cleared to play before lineups lock (which is highly unlikely), he would become one of my favorite tournament plays on the board. I don’t expect that to happen though, so I am going to play it as if Paul is going to sit. In that scenario, James Harden would become the top overall play of the slate. Not only would he be responsible for the entire offense, but he has the added motivation of facing his former team on national television.

People will be hesitant to play Eric Gordon if we don’t know Paul’s status. Gordon’s price is up and there’s no guarantee that he’ll play more than 30 minutes. This makes him an excellent tournament play because if Paul is ruled out, Gordon would see a usage boost and would likely play 35+ minutes. Trevor Ariza should play all of the minutes that he can handle as well. Ariza is inconsistent at times, but very playable on DraftKings ($5,000).

Ryan Anderson isn’t playing at home, so we can give him a small boost. If Clint Capela is ruled out again, Anderson has 30+ minute upside at potentially low ownership. P.J. Tucker would also be heavily involved in Capela’s absence. I see both Anderson and Tucker as better tournament plays than cash game targets. Nene Hilario has been quiet in his last two starts, but would offer nice value if Capela is ruled out. Basically, if we don’t now about Paul and Capela before lineups lock, I will be targeting James Harden in all formats and loading up on the rest of the Rockets in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Chris Paul (Questionable)
Clint Capela (Questionable)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 115.4 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -6.2 (9 of 10)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – TBD (waiting on injuries)

Secondary Plays – TBD (waiting on injuries)

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have won four games in a row and seven of their last ten. They could make a big statement with a win over the Rockets on Christmas. This should be one of the fastest paced games on the schedule and Vegas likes the spot for the Thunder. They currently have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is the sixth highest on the board and 2.7 points above their season average.

Russell Westbrook is an elite play regardless, but I much prefer a matchup against Eric Gordon rather than Chris Paul. Westbrook has the highest true usage rate of any player on the schedule and is averaging 62 fantasy points over his last four games. He would also benefit if Clint Capela is unable to suit up, as Nene Hilario isn’t nearly as good of a rim protector. Andre Roberson is a super sneaky punt play at shooting guard. His minutes have been down recently, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he played 35 minutes in this one. He’s the Thunder’s best shot at slowing Harden down.

Paul George missed a couple of games two weeks back and has underwhelmed since. He did have a big outing against the Jazz in his last time out, so perhaps he has turned the corner. He grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar small forwards and I don’t his ownership to be too high. Carmelo Anthony is a tough sell given his recent form, but his price is down and the matchup is in his favor. Steven Adams is an excellent play on DraftKings at a price of only $5,500.

Notable Injuries

None

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 102.6 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (2 of 10)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.7 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Andre Roberson (DK), Steven Adams (DK)

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							Los Angeles Lakers
			Vegas Total		213.5					Vegas Total		213.5
			Vegas Spread		-3.0					Vegas Spread		3.0
			Implied Team Total		108.3					Implied Team Total		105.3
			Pace Projection +/-		5.1					Pace Projection +/-		-1.2
Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Jordan Clarkson	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	Brandon Ingram	Kyle Kuzma	Andrew Bogut
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	25	20	26	28	26		DvP	13	14	7	4	24
DRPM Rat.	25	6	19	30	8		DRPM Rat.	21	2	28	11	27

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have won three games in a row and seven of their last ten. They draw a favorable matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked first in pace of play and 26th in points allowed per game. If you are sitting in first place in a tournament before this game starts, you better hope that you still have some PMR. This game has a total of 213.5 points and the Wolves are projected to score 108.3 points.

Jeff Teague is my favorite point guard when you factor in salaries. He is slowly coming out of his recent slump, he is priced affordably across the industry, and he draws an elite matchup against the Lakers. Jimmy Butler should play close to 40 minutes against the Lakers, which is more than enough of a reason to have some interest. He is an excellent tournament pivot off of LeBron James and Kevin Durant.

Andrew Wiggins is a player that nobody feels great about targeting in DFS, but he’s under $6,000 on FanDuel and he is facing the Lakers. I’ll have a share or two of Wiggins in tournaments. Taj Gibson and Gorgui Dieng are both viable power forward targets on FanDuel, especially if Nemanja Bjelica is ruled out. Karl-Anthony Towns always seems overpriced on FanDuel and underpriced on DraftKings. He should be able to dominate an undersized Lakers’ frontcourt. At a price of $8,900 on DraftKings, he stands out as an elite play in all formats.

Notable Injuries

Nemanja Bjelica (Questionable)

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 108.0 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (4 of 10)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.4 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.5 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (Cash), Andrew Wiggins (GPP), Taj Gibson (FD)

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have been a fun team to watch this season, but they will be without Lonzo Ball for at least a week because of a shoulder injury. Still, they play at the league’s fastest pace and they have a lot of young talent on their roster. They get to play at home on Christmas and they draw a favorable matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 25th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers have an implied total of 105.3 points, which is the sixth highest on the board.

Lonzo Ball has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which opens up some much needed value in a slate that is full of superstars. With Ball out, Jordan Clarkson should be the biggest beneficiary. He’ll not only see a boost in minutes, but he may have more ball-handling duties. When on the floor with Ball, Clarkson tends to play the two guard, but he should be the primary ball handler against the Wolves. He’s an elite play in all formats.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope may have to deal with Jimmy Butler, but he should play 35 minutes with the potential for more if Brandon Ingram is ruled out. We likely won’t know about Ingram’s status until after lock, but Josh Hart is an intriguing large-field tournament play.

Julius Randle was in the doghouse for some comments that he made to the coaching staff, but he has scored 42 and 27 fantasy points in his last two games. He’s always on my radar in tournaments even though his minutes are volatile. Kyle Kuzma is having a breakout party and everyone is invited. Over his last four games, he is averaging 44 fantasy points. His price is up, but there is no reason why we shouldn’t keep targeting him. He should play 38-40 minutes in a nice matchup against the Wolves.

Notable Injuries

Lonzo Ball (Out)
Brandon Ingram (Questionable)

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (5 of 10)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jordan Clarkson, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Secondary Plays – Josh Hart (GPP), Julius Randle (GPP)