NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 8th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Orlando -1, 207 Over/Under
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Johnson-Deng-Stoudemire
- Orlando Magic Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Fournier-Ilyasova-Vucevic
| Miami Heat | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 207.0 | | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.0 | Team Proj. | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.70 | Team Pace | 98.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Joe Johnson | Luol Deng | Amar’e Stoudemire | Proj. Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Evan Fournier | Ersan Ilyasova | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 18 | Opp. Season | 2 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 7 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 1 | 6 | 20 | 27 | 28 | Last 3 Weeks | 6 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 16 | |
Miami Heat
Record: 46-32 — Road: 19-19 — Last 10: 7-3
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.9 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.0 (5 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.1 (5 of 20)
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.5 (20 of 30)
The Heat are currently fighting for homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, so they still have plenty to play for. The line for this game was a bit surprising when I first saw it, as the Magic are actually favored by one. Orlando has been playing some good basketball recently though, and the Heat are on the tail end of a back-to-back. We have an interesting slate tonight in that there are a lot of great value plays, but not many superstars in the player pool. This could lead to more of a well-balanced lineup construction.
- Injury Watch:
Chris Bosh (Out)
Tyler Johnson (Out)
Beno Udrih (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Hassan Whiteside | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,600 | Salary:$8,800 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.23 | FP/Min:1.31 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 29.1 | 30.3 | 1.2 | 30.8 | 1.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 35.7 | 40.5 | 4.8 | 39.4 | 3.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.9 | 18.8 | 2.8 | 17.6 | 1.6 |
There isn’t a single player listed above $10,000 tonight on either FanDuel or DraftKings. With all of the value available, we are going to have to spend up on someone. One of the players that is on my radar in that upper tier is Whiteside. He draws a favorable matchup against the Magic and he comes into the game in great form averaging 40.5 fantasy points in his last ten outings.
| Goran Dragic | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,700 | Salary:$6,800 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.83 | FP/Min:0.88 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.9 | 32.6 | -0.3 | 33.4 | 0.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 27.2 | 29.8 | 2.6 | 29.7 | 2.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.7 | 21.4 | 2.7 | 21.3 | 2.6 |
The Dragon is coming off of a big game against the Bulls last night, scoring 37 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action. Over his last ten games, he is averaging right around 30 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic and as I mentioned above, the Heat still have plenty to play for, so his minutes should be secure.
Orlando Magic
Record: 33-45 — Home: 21-18 — Last 10: 4-6
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.9 (17 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.0 (4 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 (7 of 20)
- Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.8 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.3 (4 of 30)
The Magic have been playing better recently, thanks to the great play by Nikola Vucevic off the bench. They are listed as 1-point favorites tonight against the Heat. In what is one of the most surprising things in tonight’s slate, they have the fourth highest team total. On paper, the Heat present one of the worst matchups on the board, but with so many teams resting guys tonight, the Magic somehow have the fourth highest team total. They will get overlooked in all league formats, but that could be a mistake. Aaron Gordon has been ruled out of tonight’s game. Ersan Ilyasova is tentatively expected to start in his place. Andrew Nicholson should also see a boost off the bench.
- Injury Watch:
Aaron Gordon (Out)
Elite Plays
| Nikola Vucevic | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,000 | Salary:$7,100 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.10 | FP/Min:1.18 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.5 | 26.6 | -4.9 | 26.6 | -4.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 34.8 | 39.6 | 4.8 | 39.6 | 4.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.9 | 26.4 | 3.5 | 26.4 | 3.5 |
It sounds a bit crazy to list Vucevic as an elite play against a defense the caliber of the Heat, but Vegas really likes the Magic offense in this one. Vucevic has already been announced as the starter, so we can safely project him for 30+ minutes tonight in a slate where Orlando has one of the highest team totals on the board. Take advantage of his discounted price tag.
Secondary Plays
| Victor Oladipo | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,200 | Salary:$6,900 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.92 | FP/Min:0.98 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.1 | 37.4 | 4.3 | 35.5 | 2.4 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.4 | 36.3 | 6.0 | 35.6 | 5.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.8 | 19.5 | -0.2 | 19.2 | -0.5 |
This may not be the best play in cash games, but Oladipo makes an excellent GPP play. We all know the type of upside that he provides and no one is going to be targeting him tonight. The matchup will scare most people away, even though the Magic are projected to score the fourth most points tonight.
Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -14.5, 206 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Nets Proj. Starters – Larkin-Ellington-Bogdanovic-Hollis-Jefferson-Robinson
- Charlotte Hornets Proj. Starters – Walker-Lee-Batum-Williams-Zeller
| Brooklyn Nets | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 206.0 | | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.5 | Vegas Sprd | -14.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.8 | Team Proj. | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.20 | Team Pace | 97.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Shane Larkin | Wayne Ellington | Bojan Bogdanovic | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Thomas Robinson | Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Courtney Lee | Nicolas Batum | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 12 | 19 | 21 | 13 | Opp. Season | 23 | 25 | 24 | 17 | 25 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 6 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 20 | Last 3 Weeks | 16 | 27 | 27 | 17 | 22 | |
Brooklyn Nets
Record: 21-57 — Road: 7-32 — Last 10: 2-8
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.8 (17 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (14 of 20)
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.8 (15 of 30)
The Nets are a two-man show at this point in the season and strangely those two players are Thomas Robinson and Shane Larkin. In their game on Wednesday night, the Nets gave ten players between 17-32 minutes. Robinson and Larkin were the only two that topped the 30 minute mark and they are the only two that should be on your radar tonight. The Nets are sizable underdogs against the Hornets, but that is to be expected. The plays from Brooklyn are more about value and opportunity than the actual matchup.
- Injury Watch:
Willie Reed (Out)
Elite Plays
| Thomas Robinson | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,600 | Salary:$5,500 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.98 | FP/Min:1.04 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 12.7 | 24.9 | 12.2 | 27.8 | 15.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 12.4 | 26.8 | 14.3 | 34.2 | 21.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.5 | 19.1 | 3.6 | 21.8 | 6.3 |
Dollar for dollar, Robinson may be my favorite play on the board tonight. He has been tremendous over his last five games, averaging 34.2 fantasy points in only 27 minutes per contest. He should see 30+ minutes tonight and even if the game turns into a blowout, he should still see garbage time.
Secondary Plays
| Shane Larkin | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,700 | Salary:$4,600 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.78 | FP/Min:0.83 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 22.0 | 29.2 | 7.2 | 31.9 | 9.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 17.1 | 24.3 | 7.2 | 25.6 | 8.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.2 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 14.4 | -0.8 |
If this was a slate in the middle of January, Larkin would be an elite play in all league formats. He offers great value at his price point and we can project him to play 30+ minutes as the starting point guard. The only thing holding him back tonight is the amount of value on the slate. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Tim Frazier against the Lakers or Ramon Sessions (if John Wall is out) against the Pistons.
Charlotte Hornets
Record: 45-33 — Home: 28-11 — Last 10: 6-4
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.0 (11 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.3 (1 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 7.3 (1 of 20)
- Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.2 (24 of 30)
The Hornets are still fighting to try to get homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They have an uphill climb with only four games left, but they are only one game behind (in the loss column) the three teams ahead of them in the East. They should be able to pick up an easy win tonight against the Nets at home. While I like the fact that the Hornets still have something to play for, they aren’t going to leave their starters in the game in a blowout. I have a hard time seeing the Nets keeping this game close. With Nicolas Batum expected back in the lineup, I recommend using the Hornets as GPP plays tonight, if at all.
- Injury Watch:
Nicolas Batum (Probable)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – New York -2, 203 Over/Under
- New York Knicks Proj. Starters – Grant-Vujacic-Anthony-Williams-Lopez
- Philadelphia 76ers Proj. Starters – Smith-Canaan-Covington-Grant-Noel
| New York Knicks | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 203.0 | | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.90 | Team Pace | 100.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jerian Grant | Sasha Vujacic | Carmelo Anthony | Derrick Williams | Robin Lopez | Proj. Starter | Ishmael Smith | Isaiah Canaan | Robert Covington | Jerami Grant | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 20 | 29 | 28 | 30 | Opp. Season | 17 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 12 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 27 | 22 | 29 | 15 | 12 | Last 3 Weeks | 17 | 14 | 21 | 6 | 8 | |
New York Knicks
Record: 31-48 — Road: 13-26 — Last 10: 3-7
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.4 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5 (6 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (3 of 20)
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.8 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 213.2 (29 of 30)
The Knicks are counting down the days until the end of the season. I’m perplexed as to how they are handling their rotation right now. In their game the other night, Carmelo Anthony and Sasha Vujacic both played huge minutes. You would think that the Knicks would want to get a better look at some of their younger players – specifically Jerian Grant. The Knicks are 2-point favorites tonight against the Sixers with an implied team total 102.5 points. Kristaps Porzingis and Jose Calderon are both expected to be out tonight. There are two Knicks’ players on my radar tonight and neither of them is named Carmelo Anthony. We are to the point in the season where we shouldn’t take superstars whose minutes aren’t secure.
- Injury Watch:
Kristaps Porzingis (Out)
Jose Calderon (Out)
Elite Plays
| Derrick Williams | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,500 | Salary:$4,600 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.87 | FP/Min:0.91 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 17.6 | 22.9 | 5.3 | 26.8 | 9.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 15.3 | 17.7 | 2.4 | 19.3 | 4.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 20.3 | 18.2 | -2.1 | 16.9 | -3.5 |
Williams has been rock solid since Kristaps Porzingis went down with his injury. Over his last four games, Williams is averaging well over 20 fantasy points per contest. He should see 30+ minutes of action tonight in one of the best matchups on the board. He is a strong play in all league formats tonight.
Secondary Plays
| Jerian Grant | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$3,800 | Salary:$4,000 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.68 | FP/Min:0.74 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 15.9 | 17.8 | 1.9 | 22.2 | 6.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 10.9 | 11.8 | 0.9 | 16.5 | 5.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.9 | 17.0 | 1.1 | 17.1 | 1.2 |
Grant should fly under the radar again tonight. He has flashed some upside in his last two starts, but he hasn’t been able to put it all together for four quarters. If there was ever a game for Grant to break out, this would be it. The Sixers are ranked 28th against point guards this season.
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 10-68 — Home: 7-32 — Last 10: 1-9
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 97.1 (30 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.5 (8 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (4 of 20)
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.1 (11 of 30)
The Sixers are another team in disarray, but they actually have a decent chance of picking up their 11th win of the season. They draw a favorable matchup against the Knicks and they get to face them in Philadelphia. The Sixers are projected to score 100.5 points, which gives them the fourth highest projected point differential at +3.4. While I like the Sixers’ offense as a whole, there hasn’t been a single player that we have been able to rely on recently. With all of the value opening up in this slate, I will likely be avoiding Philly altogether.
- Injury Watch:
Richaun Holmes (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Robert Covington | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,300 | Salary:$6,400 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.86 | FP/Min:0.96 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 27.8 | 30.6 | 2.8 | 31.6 | 3.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.9 | 29.7 | 5.8 | 28.9 | 4.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.5 | 18.8 | 2.3 | 16.8 | 0.2 |
Covington has played well over his last five games, averaging 28.9 fantasy points in just under 32 minutes per contest. We have seen him play minutes in the mid to upper 30s and we all know the type of upside that he provides when he gets hot from beyond the ark. Covington isn’t a great cash game play, but he makes a nice low-owned tournament target.
Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Detroit -5.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Washington Wizards Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Porter-Morris-Gortat
- Detroit Pistons Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Harris-Morris-Drummond
| Washington Wizards | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 206.5 | | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.50 | Team Pace | 97.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | John Wall | Brad Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Tobias Harris | Marcus Morris | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 11 | Opp. Season | 20 | 17 | 21 | 7 | 9 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 27 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 30 | Last 3 Weeks | 30 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 13 | |
Washington Wizards
Record: 38-40 — Road: 18-21 — Last 10: 5-5
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.8 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.5 (8 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 (16 of 20)
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.6 (2 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.1 (9 of 30)
The Wizards aren’t officially eliminated from the playoffs just yet, but they need to win out and have the Pistons lose out. Basically, if they lose tonight, they can finalize their offseason vacations. The biggest question mark heading into this game is the status of John Wall. He missed the game the other night with a knee injury and is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest against the Pistons. Judging by the Vegas line, it appears that the oddsmakers expect Wall to play. He is responsible for such a large portion of their production that his absence would open up a ton of plays on the Wizards tonight.
- Injury Watch:
John Wall (Questionable)
Elite / Secondary Plays
TBD – If John Wall is unable to suit up, Ramon Sessions and Bradley Beal would become close to must plays. Markieff Morris, Otto Porter, and Marcin Gortat would become borderline elite plays as well. If Wall is able to play, he would become a borderline elite play, as the Pistons have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to point guards over the last three weeks of play. The other Wizards would then be bumped down to secondary plays.
| John Wall | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$9,400 | Salary:$9,500 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.17 | FP/Min:1.28 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 36.2 | 37.9 | 1.7 | 36.8 | 0.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 42.3 | 42.0 | -0.2 | 40.3 | -2.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 24.6 | 23.4 | -1.2 | 22.4 | -2.2 |
| Marcin Gortat | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,600 | Salary:$6,300 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.00 | FP/Min:1.06 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.2 | 31.1 | 0.9 | 27.6 | -2.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.1 | 31.1 | 1.0 | 29.4 | -0.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.4 | 14.7 | -0.6 | 15.7 | 0.3 |
| Brad Beal | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,000 | Salary:$6,100 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.85 | FP/Min:0.92 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.3 | 34.5 | 3.2 | 34.4 | 3.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 26.6 | 27.3 | 0.7 | 30.3 | 3.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 21.2 | 18.8 | -2.4 | 22.0 | 0.8 |
| Markieff Morris | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,600 | Salary:$5,500 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.86 | FP/Min:0.94 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 25.4 | 28.1 | 2.7 | 30.9 | 5.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 21.9 | 26.3 | 4.4 | 27.8 | 5.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.6 | 18.6 | -1.0 | 18.9 | -0.6 |
| Otto Porter | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,500 | Salary:$5,400 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.76 | FP/Min:0.81 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.7 | 33.5 | 2.8 | 31.5 | 0.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.3 | 26.3 | 3.0 | 25.9 | 2.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.1 | 14.0 | -0.1 | 13.8 | -0.4 |
| Ramon Sessions | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,100 | Salary:$3,700 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.83 | FP/Min:0.87 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 19.7 | 15.7 | -4.0 | 18.7 | -1.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 16.3 | 12.9 | -3.4 | 16.9 | 0.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.5 | 19.2 | 0.7 | 18.8 | 0.3 |
Detroit Pistons
Record: 42-37 — Home: 25-14 — Last 10: 7-3
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.8 (19 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.0 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 (2 of 20)
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.7 (14 of 30)
The Pistons are a win away from securing a playoff spot in the East. They also have seeding to play for, because if they can catch the Pacers then they would avoid a first round matchup against the Cavaliers. With a tightened rotation down the stretch, the Pistons have been a nice team to target for fantasy production. They are projected to score 106 points tonight, which gives them the third highest team total and the second highest projected point differential on the board. You can feel pretty comfortable targeting any of the Pistons’ starters in this one – they just don’t stand out as elite plays at their respective positions.
- Injury Watch:
Jodie Meeks (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Andre Drummond | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,900 | Salary:$7,700 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.19 | FP/Min:1.28 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.0 | 31.9 | -1.1 | 32.1 | -0.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.2 | 36.7 | -2.5 | 34.3 | -4.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 20.3 | 20.0 | -0.3 | 18.5 | -1.8 |
My gut reaction is that Drummond will be one of the most popular center targets on the board tonight – at least in the upper tier of centers. I’m not as high on him as most though, as I prefer both Hassan Whiteside and Nikola Vucevic. Drummond has really struggled in this matchup the last two seasons, averaging only 27 fantasy points per game in their last six meetings.
| Tobias Harris | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,600 | Salary:$6,100 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.83 | FP/Min:0.88 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.0 | 32.8 | -0.2 | 34.5 | 1.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 27.2 | 29.9 | 2.7 | 30.4 | 3.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.8 | 18.8 | 2.0 | 17.5 | 0.7 |
Harris is a solid cash game target tonight, but he lacks the upside that Thomas Robinson or Jabari Parker has. Harris should see minutes in the mid-30s and he should give you 28-34 fantasy points. He is a safe play, but not a standout pick at his respective position. I do give him a small boost on DraftKings where he is listed as a small forward.
| Marcus Morris | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,700 | Salary:$5,400 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.68 | FP/Min:0.74 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.7 | 35.1 | -0.6 | 35.6 | -0.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 24.3 | 28.1 | 3.9 | 30.0 | 5.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.9 | 15.6 | -0.3 | 16.2 | 0.3 |
Marcus squares off against his brother, Markieff in what should be a close game throughout. Marcus has been playing better basketball than his brother has recently and his minutes are more secure as well. Morris is a fine play at small forward, but he doesn’t stand out as a must play.
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Pacers Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Allen-Mahinmi
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Powell-Scola-Valanciunas
| Indiana Pacers | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 194.5 | | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 94.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.00 | Team Pace | 95.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Lavoy Allen | Ian Mahinmi | Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Norman Powell | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 8 | Opp. Season | 9 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 17 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 5 | 21 | 26 | 11 | 1 | Last 3 Weeks | 4 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 23 | |
Indiana Pacers
Record: 42-36 — Road: 18-21 — Last 10: 6-4
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.9 (17 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.8 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (12 of 20)
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.4 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.6 (5 of 30)
The Pacers are into the playoffs, although their seed is not locked in yet. They still have a lot to play for, as they want to secure the seven seed and avoid a first round matchup against the Cavaliers. The Pacers are listed as 5-point favorites tonight against the Raptors, who have nothing to play for, as they are locked into the two seed. This could very well be a preview of the first round matchup in the playoffs. While I like that the Pacers still have motivation to win, their matchup against the Raptors is not appealing. The Pacers are only projected to score 99.8 points tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Ty Lawson (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Paul George | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,800 | Salary:$8,400 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.12 | FP/Min:1.22 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 35.1 | 33.2 | -1.9 | 32.8 | -2.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.2 | 39.7 | 0.5 | 40.5 | 1.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 25.3 | 25.8 | 0.5 | 25.0 | -0.3 |
George has been playing well down the stretch of the regular season, but I don’t love his matchup tonight against the Raptors. If you are paying up at small forward, it makes sense to spend a little bit more to get up to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Toronto Raptors
Record: 52-26 — Home: 30-9 — Last 10: 5-5
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.5 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 94.8 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -7.8 (19 of 20)
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.7 (7 of 30)
The Raptors are all but locked into the two seed in the East. After playing last night, we shouldn’t be surprised if they decide to rest a starter or two tonight. Even if everyone is active, there is no reason to target them in DFS. Their starters could easily play 25 minutes each, as there is no upside to playing them their usual allotment of minutes. If Kyle Lowry or DeMar DeRozan rest tonight, you could maybe take a look at Cory Joseph or Norman Powell. However, even if that is the case, neither really stands out as a great value play anyway, given all the great punt options available tonight.
- Injury Watch:
DeMarre Carroll (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
