NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-12-23 04:26:15

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total		203.0					Vegas Total		203.0
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		98.3					Implied Team Total		104.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.0
Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Lance Thomas	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter		Projected Starters	Reggie Jackson	Luke Kennard	Reggie Bullock	Tobias Harris	Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	3	19	30	11	10		DvP	28	14	8	7	2
DRPM Rat.	25	15	11	27	3		DRPM Rat.	15	22	21	18	25

New York Knicks

The Knicks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after beating the Celtics at home on Thursday. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked 21st in pace of play and eighth in points allowed per game. This game as a whole lacks fantasy appeal, as it projects to be one of the lowest scoring games on the schedule. The Knicks’ implied total of 98.3 points is the fourth lowest overall and six points below their season average.

Jarrett Jack and Frank Ntilikina are both easy fades in a slate that is loaded with good value plays at point guard. Courtney Lee is averaging 27 fantasy points over his last four games, but is priced up and has a difficult matchup against the Pistons. Kristaps Porzingis only played 23 minutes last night and could only muster up seven fantasy points. We should wait until he sees a full complement of minutes before targeting him in DFS. Try as I might, I can’t find anyone from the Knicks that is viable tonight.

Notable Injuries

None

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.3 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.3 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -6.1 (17 of 18)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have been a streaky team this season. They started out red-hot and have tailed off since, losing seven of their last ten games. While a matchup against the Knicks doesn’t look great on paper, New York is playing in the second half of a back-to-back and Detroit is playing at home. The Pistons have an implied total of 104.8 points, which is 2.2 points above their season average.

The best way to attack New York is with point guards. The Knicks are ranked above the league average against every other position, but 28th against point guards. The problem is that Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith were already in a timeshare and now Langston Galloway has joined the party. The only viable option from Detroit is Andre Drummond. While his production is down over his last four games, his FP/min production is actually up. If this game stays close, Drummond has 35+ minute upside at very low ownership in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

None

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 102.6 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (8 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (4 of 18)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (Cash)

New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		219.5					Vegas Total		219.5
			Vegas Spread		-6.0					Vegas Spread		6.0
			Implied Team Total		112.8					Implied Team Total		106.8
			Pace Projection +/-		2.6					Pace Projection +/-		2.7
Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Anthony Davis	DeMarcus Cousins		Projected Starters	Elfrid Payton	Wes Iwundu	Jonathon Simmons	Mario Hezonja	Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	30	28	20	30	12		DvP	22	27	28	28	16
DRPM Rat.	26	N/A	30	17	4		DRPM Rat.	23	10	29	1	9

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule because they keep games competitive and they love to get into shootouts. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pelicans have an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the third highest of the slate and 2.1 points above their season average. This is one of my two favorite games to stack tonight in tournaments.

The Magic have struggled to defend all five positions on the floor, so all of the Pelicans technically have favorable matchups. Rajon Rondo minutes have been inconsistent and point guard is one of the deepest positions in the slate. While I don’t have any interest in Rondo, the other four starters are firmly in play. Jrue Holiday plays as many minutes as anyone in the league and is averaging 45.5 fantasy points over his last four games. E’Twaun Moore should also play minutes in the upper-30s and he is still priced below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins should be licking their chops tonight. The Magic are ranked 22nd in efficiency against both power forwards and centers and they have the worst rebounding differential of any team in basketball. This is a great night to play Davis and/or Cousins and there’s a good chance that they’ll get overlooked in tournaments. James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Giannis Antetokounmpo will all soak up ownership. If I had to choose between Davis and Cousins, I would slightly lean toward Davis on FanDuel (power forward is thin) and Cousins on DraftKings (multi-position eligibility).

Notable Injuries

None

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 110.7 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (3 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 (5 of 18)

Matchup vs. Orlando Magic

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.3 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.1 (7 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jrue Holiday (GPP), E’Twaun Moore (GPP), Anthony Davis (FD), DeMarcus Cousins (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (Cash), E’Twaun Moore (Cash), Anthony Davis (DK), DeMarcus Cousins (FD)

Orlando Magic

The Magic are a fast-paced team that likes to get involved in high scoring games as well, although they are often involved in blowouts. As long as this game stays competitive, it should be one of the top ones to target tonight. It projects to have a fast pace, both teams are ranked in the bottom four in points allowed per game, and the total is set at 219.5 points. The Magic have an implied total of 106.8 points, which is the seventh highest on the board.

It’s not a huge surprise that Elfrid Payton’s production started to take a hit three weeks before Christmas. Elves are extremely busy this time of year. Hopefully, all of the toy making has been completed and he can get back to playing basketball. He’s coming off of his best game in weeks and his price is only $5,600 on DraftKings. I know that there are a million value plays to target tonight, but Payton should be less than 10% owned in a favorable matchup. I’ll have a share or two in tournaments.

With Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon out again, Mario Hezonja and Jonathon Simmons will continue to play big minutes for the Magic. The best part is that we’ve been streaming wings against the Pelicans with great success all season. I see Hezonja as more of a tournament play, while Simmons is viable in all formats on FanDuel ($6,500). Nikola Vucevic is averaging 47 fantasy points over his last four games. While a matchup against DeMarcus Cousins is never ideal, the Pelicans are actually ranked 23rd in efficiency against centers. Vucevic is a bit expensive on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings ($8,900). If you are making a few tournament lineups tonight, don’t forget to stack this game in one of them.

Notable Injuries

Aaron Gordon (Out)
Evan Fournier (Doubtful)
Jonathan Isaac (Questionable)

Orlando Magic Offense

Points Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (7 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (7 of 18)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.8 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (DK GPP), Jonathan Simmons (FD), Nikola Vucevic (DK)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (DK Cash), Jonathan Simmons (DK), Mario Hezonja, Nikola Vucevic (FD)

Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards							Brooklyn Nets
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		-5.5					Vegas Spread		5.5
			Implied Team Total		109.0					Implied Team Total		103.5
			Pace Projection +/-		3.8					Pace Projection +/-		-0.2
Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat		Projected Starters	Spencer Dinwiddie	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Tyler Zeller
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	26	18	26	26	28		DvP	13	4	19	3	11
DRPM Rat.	4	21	3	21	15		DRPM Rat.	7	17	1	13	10

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won six of their last ten games and will start to make a push up the standings now that John Wall is back in the fold. They draw one of the best possible matchups tonight, as they face a Nets’ team that is ranked third in pace of play and 28th in points allowed per game. The Wizards have an implied total of 109 points, which is the fourth highest overall and 3.4 points above their season average.

John Wall played 33 minutes the other night against the Pelicans, which means we don’t have to worry about a minute restriction moving forward. Spencer Dinwiddie is a good on-ball defender, but he can’t make up for a bad team defense. As a whole, the Nets are ranked 29th in efficiency and 26th in DvP against point guards. Wall is a great option to pay up for tonight and there’s a chance he flies under the radar with all of the superstars in such good spots.

Lou Williams, C.J. McCollum, and Jrue Holiday should all have higher ownership than Bradley Beal, even though he has arguably the best matchup of the bunch. He makes a ton of sense in tournaments, although I slightly prefer the other three in a cash game setting. If Otto Porter is unable to suit up tonight, give a small bump to both Kelly Oubre and Mike Scott. If Porter is active, I will be avoiding all three. Marcin Gortat typically plays more minutes when the Wizards are facing a true center, which concerns me in a matchup against the Nets. These two teams played last week and Gortat only played 18 minutes. Gortat has 7x type of upside on FanDuel ($4,500), but he’s best suited as a GPP play.

Notable Injuries

Otto Porter (Questionable)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (4 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (2 of 18)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.7 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.3 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal (GPP), Marcin Gortat (FD GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (Cash), Marcin Gortat (FD Cash), Kelly Oubre and Mike Scott (if Porter is out)

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets’ inconsistent rotation has caused many headaches for DFS players this season, but we keep going back to the well because they have plenty of upside with their young talent and the tempo that they play at. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and 17th in rebounding differential. The Nets’ implied total of 103.5 points is 3.3 points below their season average.

Spencer Dinwiddie averages over a fantasy point per minute, but he rarely plays 35 minutes and his price is inflated. With all of the great point guard options available tonight, it’s hard to justify playing him in cash games or tournaments. Allen Crabbe isn’t on my top five list of value targets, but he should play 30+ minutes and he’s only $4,300 on DraftKings. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is the only Nets’ player that deserves consideration in cash games. He has played at least 34 minutes in four of his last seven games and power forward is by far the thinnest position of the slate.

Notable Injuries

None

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.8 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (10 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 (14 of 18)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Secondary Plays – Allen Crabbe (DK)

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks							Miami Heat
			Vegas Total		195.5					Vegas Total		195.5
			Vegas Spread		-1.0					Vegas Spread		1.0
			Implied Team Total		98.3					Implied Team Total		97.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.9					Pace Projection +/-		-2.3
Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Wesley Matthews	Harrison Barnes	Maxi Kleber	Dirk Nowitzki		Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Dion Waiters	Josh Richardson	Bam Adebayo	Kelly Olynyk
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	10	9	12	13	4		DvP	16	12	13	18	22
DRPM Rat.	20	24	4	20	14		DRPM Rat.	28	28	28	9	18

Dallas Mavericks

This is one of the uglier games in tonight’s slate. The Mavericks and Heat are both ranked in the bottom eight in pace of play and in the top nine in points allowed per game. We should expect a slow-paced, drag-it-out type of game. While the spread is low, the 195.5 point total is far from appealing. The Mavericks have an implied total of only 98.3 points, which is the fourth lowest of the slate and 1.5 points below their season average.

Now that Dennis Smith is back in the lineup, I have no interest in the Mavericks’ backcourt. I do expect both teams to play small tonight, which will open up more minutes for the guards, but there are still too many bodies splitting minutes. Smith has the most appealing price tag of the bunch ($4,800 on DraftKings), but he was limited to 21 minutes in his first game back from injury. Harrison Barnes and Dirk Nowitzki are also easy fades against a good defense. There are better plays at their respective positions and price points.

Notable Injuries

None

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 99.7 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.3 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (11 of 18)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Miami Heat

If the Heat were healthy, I would be fading them as a whole, just like how I will be fading the Mavericks. However, they are going to be without four of their key players in Hassan Whiteside, James Johnson, Justise Winslow, and Goran Dragic. Opportunity trumps everything else in NBA DFS, as we saw a number of Heat players exceed value in a difficult matchup against the Celtics the other night. The Heat may have the second lowest implied total on the board, but those 97 points have to come from somewhere.

In his last two starts with Dragic out, Tyler Johnson has averaged 38 minutes and 33 fantasy points. He’s no longer an auto-play thanks to his price coming up, but it’s hard to pass on a cheap point guard that we can project to play 36-38 minutes. Dennis Smith has been one of the worst on-ball defenders in basketball so far this season. Dion Waiters is a 1-in-10 play, where you should use him in one tournament lineup if you are making ten. The upside is there, but he doesn’t grade out as an elite point-per-dollar play.

Josh Richardson has taken on a bigger role in the offense with all of the injuries to the Heat and he is playing nearly 40 minutes a night. An increased usage rate combined with a massive spike in playing time is what we are always looking for when we talk about value. His price has come up a bit, but I will be going right back to the well tonight. Miami’s frontcourt has some viable tournament options, but I do worry that both teams could play small. Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo, and Jordan Mickey are better GPP plays than cash game targets.

Notable Injuries

Hassan Whiteside (Out)
James Johnson (Out)
Justise Winslow (Out)
Goran Dragic (Out)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 99.9 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.3 (17 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (12 of 18)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson

Secondary Plays – Dion Waiters (GPP), Kelly Olynyk (GPP), Wayne Ellington

Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		211.5					Vegas Total		211.5
			Vegas Spread		5.0					Vegas Spread		-5.0
			Implied Team Total		103.3					Implied Team Total		108.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.9					Pace Projection +/-		1.7
Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard		Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Matthew Dellavedova	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	7	7	3	15	25		DvP	21	20	24	14	5
DRPM Rat.	16	23	26	3	3		DRPM Rat.	16	5	5	16	7

Charlotte Hornets

If you read this column every day (thank you very much), you are probably tired of hearing me rant about the Hornets home/road splits. My job is to break down each game and given how poorly the Hornets have played on the road, it’s worth mentioning every time. Charlotte is 2-11 on the road this season and despite a favorable matchup against the Bucks, their implied total is lower than their season average.

Right off the bat, I am eliminating the Hornets’ players from cash game consideration. There are too many good options available tonight to risk playing the volatile Hornets on the road. For tournaments, there are two players that deserve a closer look. Kemba Walker is the cheapest that we have seen him in a very long time. He has an elite usage rate (26%) and only needs to hit his season average in fantasy points to reach value at his current price point. Dwight Howard is expensive, but we know the type of upside that he has. The Bucks don’t rebound the ball well and are ranked dead last in efficiency against centers this season.

Notable Injuries

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Probable)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 104.4 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (11 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (10 of 18)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Dwight Howard (GPP)

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have won six of their last ten games and are currently in fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. They draw a mediocre matchup on paper against the Hornets, but once again, I will point you in the direction of Charlotte’s home/road splits. They have really struggled to defend away from home. The Bucks have an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the fifth highest overall and 3.3 points above their season average.

Now that Matthew Dellavedova, Tony Snell, and Jason Terry are all back, I will be avoiding Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon until we see their prices come down. Khris Middleton has some appeal in tournaments, especially if we assume that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be the one defending Giannis Antetokounmpo. That would leave Middleton with a matchup against Nicolas Batum or Marvin Williams. Antetokounmpo is matchup-proof and comes into the game in great form. Over his last four outings, he is averaging 41 minutes and 59 fantasy points per contest. He has one of the highest floor/ceiling combinations that you are going to find in this slate.

Notable Injuries

None

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (5 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (3 of 18)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (GPP)

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