NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 15th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -13.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Timberwolves Proj. Starters – Rubio-Wiggins-Prince-Garnett-Towns
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208.5 | | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.5 | Vegas Sprd | -13.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 111.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.50 | Team Pace | 99.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Ricky Rubio | Andrew Wiggins | Tayshaun Prince | Kevin Garnett | Karl-Anthony Towns | Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 3 | Opp. Season | 17 | 16 | 17 | 8 | 17 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 23 | 23 | 26 | 10 | 6 | Last 3 Weeks | 11 | 19 | 21 | 4 | 21 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 12-28 — Road: 7-11 — Last 10: 1-9
- Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.7 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.5 (17 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2
The Wolves have lost nine of their last ten games and have fallen to 12-28 on the season. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Thunder in a game that features a spread of 13 points. The Wolves are only projected to score 97.5 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 6.7 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.7 (9 of 30)
Even though the Thunder play at a fast pace, they are still a top ten defense. On the season, they are ranked ninth or better in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Kevin Garnett is expected to return to the lineup, after being rested on Wednesday night.
- Injury Watch:
Kevin Garnett (Probable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins
Wiggins has been in better for recently, averaging 30.6 fantasy points over his last five games. He is not the most consistent fantasy option available, but his price is still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is worth a look in tournaments tonight against the Rockets. Wiggins had 30 fantasy points against the Thunder on Tuesday night.
FD — $6,600 — SF
DK — $6,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 30.6
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 28-12 — Home: 18-5 — Last 10: 8-2
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 108.7 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 111.0 (1 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3
The Thunder have won eight of their last ten games and look like a real threat in the top-heavy Western Conference. They draw an easy matchup tonight against the struggling Wolves at home. The Thunder are projected to score 111 points, which is the highest team total on the board.
- Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.8 (15 of 30)
The Wolves have struggled defensively this season, ranking 15th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Thunder have the highest team total on the board tonight, but there is some risk attached to their starters. This game does have blowout potential, as they are listed as 13-point favorites at home.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Russell Westbrook
Westbrook may be a little extra fired up for tonight’s game, after he was thrown out of Wednesday night’s game against the Thunder. Given the large spread and his elevated price point, Westbrook is a tough target in cash games. However, the Thunder have had trouble putting teams away recently. He offers nice upside in tournaments.
FD — $10,500 — PG
DK — $10,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 29.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 30.1
FP/Game — Season: 48.9 | Last Five Games: 45.3
Kevin Durant
Durant is a slightly better cash game option than Russell Westbrook, but only because he is cheaper. Both players are best suited for tournaments in a game that could end up being a blowout. With eight other games on the schedule, we shouldn’t try to force Westbrook or Durant into our lineups.
FD — $10,000 — SF
DK — $9,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 43.7 | Last Five Games: 43.9
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Indiana -7.5, 205 Over/Under
- Washington Wizards Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Oubre-Dudley-Hilario
- Indiana Pacers Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-Miles-George-Mahinmi
| Washington Wizards | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 205.0 | | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.90 | Team Pace | 99.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Kelly Oubre | Jared Dudley | Nene Hilario | Proj. Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | C.J. Miles | Paul George | Ian Mahinmi | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 22 | Opp. Season | 6 | 27 | 29 | 6 | 11 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 7 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 15 | Last 3 Weeks | 10 | 20 | 19 | 2 | 27 | |
Washington Wizards
Record: 18-19 — Road: 9-8 — Last 10: 5-5
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.4 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.8 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7
The Wizards have won five of their last ten games. Despite battling injuries all season, they are still only one game below .500. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in what should be a fast-paced game. The Wizards are only projected to score 98.8 points, which is the fifth lowest team total on the board.
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.1 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.5 (8 of 30)
The Pacers play at an above-average pace, but that hasn’t impacted their play on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, they are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Marcin Gortat and Kris Humphries, and Otto Porter have all been ruled out of tonight’s game.
- Injury Watch:
Marcin Gortat (Out)
Kris Humphries (Out)
Otto Porter (Out)
Elite Plays
Nene Hilario
It will be interesting to see who is higher owned between Hilario and Drew Gooden tonight. I have Hilario ranked slightly higher overall, but may give the edge to Gooden on FanDuel ($500 cheaper). In his last two starts, Hilario is averaging 23 minutes and 24 fantasy points per game. With Marcin Gortat out again, Hilario could crack the 25-minute mark.
FD — $4,200 — PF
DK — $4,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 17.2
FP/Game — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 17.9
Secondary Plays
John Wall
Even though Bradley Beal is back, he is only going to play minutes in the mid-20’s. With Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat out, Wall is going to have to take over offensively. He is a bit too expensive to use in cash games, but could be worth a look in tournaments, especially if George Hill is ruled out.
FD — $9,800 — PG
DK — $9,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 23.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 36.9
FP/Game — Season: 40.4 | Last Five Games: 38.0
Drew Gooden
Gooden should see minutes in the high-20’s again tonight, as Marcin Gortat and Kris Humphries have both been ruled out. He has been a productive fantasy option when given minutes and he offers nice value at power forward.
FD — $3,700 — PF
DK — $4,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.7 | Last Five Games: 14.3
Min/Game — Season: 14.5 | Last Five Games: 19.6
FP/Game — Season: 11.7 | Last Five Games: 15.0
Indiana Pacers
Record: 22-17 — Home: 13-5 — Last 10: 5-5
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.1 (11 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.3 (3 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2
The Pacers have won five of their last ten games and are now 22-17 overall. They draw a favorable fantasy matchup tonight against the Wizards at home. The Pacers are projected to score 106.3 points, which is the third highest team total on the board.
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.9 (20 of 30)
The Wizards have struggled defensively this season, ranking 19th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. To make matters worse, they will be without their defensive anchor, Marcin Gortat. The Pacers will be without Rodney Stuckey for the foreseeable future. He is out with a foot injury, which should result in a few extra minutes for Monta Ellis and C.J. Miles. George Hill missed shootaround this morning and is listed as questionable.
- Injury Watch:
Rodney Stuckey (Out)
George Hill (Questionable)
Elite Plays
Paul George
George has been a little hit or miss recently, but we are starting to see that high floor coming back into play. Over his last ten games, George has scored at least 35 fantasy points seven times. He draws a terrific matchup against the Wizards, who have struggled to defend wing players this season.
FD — $8,800 — SF
DK — $8,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 39.3 | Last Five Games: 36.0
C.J. Miles
Miles will enter the starting lineup tonight, sending Lavoy Allen to the bench. With Rodney Stuckey out, he could push for 30 minutes against a Wizards’ defense that is ranked 27th against shooting guards and 29th against small forwards this season.
FD — $4,500 — SF
DK — $4,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.5 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 27.7
FP/Game — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 21.3
Secondary Plays
Ian Mahinmi
Mahinmi has really played well recently and no one seems to have noticed. Over his last five games, he is averaging 28.7 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against a Wizards’ team that is missing their best low post defender in Marcin Gortat.
FD — $5,300 — C
DK — $5,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.2 | Last Five Games: 14.4
Min/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 24.6
FP/Game — Season: 22.5 | Last Five Games: 28.7
Monta Ellis
If George Hill is ruled out tonight, Ellis would become an elite option at shooting guard. He would likely slide over and start at point guard. Plus, with Rodney Stuckey also out, Ellis could play close to 40 minutes. Even if George does play, Ellis is a viable secondary option tonight against the Wizards.
FD — $6,200 — SG
DK — $6,200 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 18.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 35.3
FP/Game — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 27.9
Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -9.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Suns Proj. Starters – Goodwin-Booker-Tucker-Leuer-Chandler
- Boston Celtics Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Sullinger
| Phoenix Suns | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208.5 | | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.80 | Team Pace | 100.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Archie Goodwin | Devin Booker | P.J. Tucker | Jon Leuer | Tyson Chandler | Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Jared Sullinger | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 7 | 23 | 24 | 21 | Opp. Season | 29 | 28 | 27 | 15 | 7 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 2 | 2 | 23 | 26 | 17 | Last 3 Weeks | 29 | 25 | 29 | 18 | 28 | |
Phoenix Suns
Record: 13-27 — Road: 4-16 — Last 10: 1-9
- Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.5 (12 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -2.9
The Suns have lost nine of their last ten games and are only 4-16 on the road this season. It should come as no surprise that they are listed as 9.5-point underdogs tonight against the Celtics in Boston. The Suns are only projected to score 99.5 points, which is 2.9 points lower than their average on the season.
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.2 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.3 (12 of 30)
The Celtics haven’t been as effective defensively over the last few weeks, but are still ranked tenth in points allowed per game and third in defensive efficiency. Alex Len and Ronnie Price have both been ruled out of tonight’s game. Tyson Chandler, Jon Leuer, P.J. Tucker, and Devin Booker should all pick up a few extra minutes.
- Injury Watch:
Brandon Knight (Probable)
Alex Len (Out)
Ronnie Price (Out)
Elite Plays
Devin Booker
On paper, Booker draws a difficult matchup against Avery Bradley, who is an excellent defender. However, Booker’s increased role in the offense outweighs the matchup. Over his last five games, he is averaging 26.3 fantasy points in 32.4 minutes per game. With Ronnie Price out, he should see major minutes again tonight.
FD — $4,200 — SG
DK — $5,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.9 | Last Five Games: 18.1
Min/Game — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 11.7 | Last Five Games: 26.3
Secondary Plays
Brandon Knight
Other than Devin Booker, Knight is the one Suns’ player that we don’t need to worry about in terms of playing time. Over his last five games, he is averaging 36 fantasy points in 38.2 minutes per contest. The upside is there, but his tough matchup against the Celtics makes him more of a secondary play tonight.
FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 24.2
Min/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 38.2
FP/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 36.0
P.J. Tucker
With all of the injuries to the Suns, Tucker may be asked to play major minutes again tonight. He has played at least 31 minutes in each of his last four games. While he does offer nice value at small forward, I prefer C.J. Miles at a similar price point.
FD — $4,500 — SF
DK — $4,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.5 | Last Five Games: 9.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.3 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Boston Celtics
Record: 20-19 — Home: 10-10 — Last 10: 4-6
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.6 (7 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.0 (2 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 6.4
The Celtics have lost six of their last ten games, but have a good chance to get back on track tonight. They are large favorites tonight, as they host the visiting Suns. The Celtics are projected to score 109 points. Not only is that the second highest team total, but it is also 6.4 points higher than their average on the season.
- Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.3 (22 of 30)
The Suns have been awful defensively this season, ranking 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. It has been difficult to predict the rotation for the Celtics’ frontcourt recently. With a full slate, we can avoid the Boston bigs.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
Jae Crowder
The Celtics have a very high team total, but there aren’t any obvious plays here. My favorite play of the group is Crowder, who has been an excellent pick-up for the Celtics. He has been in good form recently and he draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 27th against small forwards.
FD — $6,400 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 16.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 26.2 | Last Five Games: 28.3
Secondary Plays
Isaiah Thomas
When Marcus Smart returned to the Celtics’ lineup, we expected Thomas to go back to playing 30-32 minutes per game. So far that hasn’t been the case, as he is averaging 34.1 over his last five games. Thomas has immense upside in this matchup and he also has a little revenge narrative working for him.
FD — $8,600 — PG
DK — $7,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 28.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 40.1
Portland Trail Blazers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Portland -4.5, 202 Over/Under
- Portland Trail Blazers Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Vonleh-Plumlee
- Brooklyn Nets Proj. Starters – Sloan-Ellington-Johnson-Young-Lopez
| Portland Trail Blazers | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 202.0 | | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.3 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.30 | Team Pace | 97.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Noah Vonleh | Mason Plumlee | Proj. Starter | Donald Sloan | Wayne Ellington | Joe Johnson | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 24 | 20 | 17 | 28 | Opp. Season | 23 | 15 | 8 | 19 | 25 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 16 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 22 | Last 3 Weeks | 24 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 4 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 17-24 — Road: 7-15 — Last 10: 6-4
- Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.2 (15 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.3 (5 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1
The Blazers have been playing some excellent basketball recently, winning six of their last ten games. Tonight they travel to Brooklyn to take on the Nets in what is expected to be a competitive game throughout. The Blazers have an implied team total of 103.3 points, which is 2.1 points higher than their season average.
- Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.1 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.3 (25 of 30)
The Nets always provide us with a favorable matchup for fantasy purposes. On the season, they are ranked 18th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. While this is a solid matchup for the Blazers as a whole, there are only two players on my radar.
- Injury Watch:
Maurice Harkless (Questionable)
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard
Lillard has been on a tear recently, averaging 46.2 fantasy points over his last five games. His price has come up across the industry, but he is still a borderline elite play tonight. The Nets have struggled to contain point guards this season and tonight’s game is expected to stay close throughout.
FD — $9,200 — PG
DK — $9,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 27.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.5 | Last Five Games: 36.7
FP/Game — Season: 40.0 | Last Five Games: 46.2
Secondary Plays
C.J. McCollum
There are better plays at shooting guard in a points per dollar sense, but McCollum makes a nice tournament play that should get overlooked. We all know the type of upside that he provides and he draws a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 24th against shooting guards this season.
FD — $8,200 — SG
DK — $7,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 26.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 29.2
Brooklyn Nets
Record: 11-28 — Home: 7-14 — Last 10: 3-7
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 95.6 (29 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.8 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 3.2
The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and are now only 11-28 on the season. Tonight’s game against the Blazers is expected to stay close though, as the Nets are only 4.5-point underdogs. Brooklyn is projected to score 98.8 points. While that may not seem high, it is 3.2 points higher than their season average.
- Portland Trail Blazers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.2 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.3 (17 of 30)
The Blazers are ranked sixth in rebounding differential this season, but are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Donald Sloan and Shane Larkin continue to split minutes at point guard. Unless one of them becomes the clear starter, both can be avoided.
- Injury Watch:
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Out)
Willie Reed (Questionable)
Elite Plays
Brook Lopez
Lopez is a bit too expensive to be considered an elite play on FanDuel, but he certainly deserves that label on DraftKings. He has been one of the most consistent fantasy options at center this season and he has been in good form, averaging over 35 fantasy points in his last five games.
FD — $8,600 — C
DK — $7,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.9 | Last Five Games: 33.3
FP/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 35.7
Secondary Plays
Thaddeus Young
Young’s production has been down a bit recently, but at least that has led to a slight salary decrease. While I won’t be starting my lineups with Young tonight, I wouldn’t mind using him as a final piece when constructing my roster.
FD — $6,900 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 17.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 25.7
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -3.5, 208.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Hawks Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
- Milwaukee Bucks Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Monroe
| Atlanta Hawks | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 208.5 | | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.0 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.00 | Team Pace | 96.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj. Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Greg Monroe | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 20 | 28 | 25 | 14 | Opp. Season | 14 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 23 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 17 | 27 | 30 | 23 | 29 | Last 3 Weeks | 5 | 30 | 10 | 21 | 26 | |
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 23-16 — Road: 10-9 — Last 10: 6-4
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 106.0 (4 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5
The Hawks have won six of their last ten games and are now 23-16 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Bucks in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. The Hawks have an implied team total of 106 points, which is the fourth highest team total on the board.
- Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.1 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.4 (23 of 30)
The Bucks have played at a faster pace recently and it has only made them a more attractive matchup in fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked 23rd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Hawks’ offense should see a nice boost as a whole.
- Injury Watch:
Thabo Sefolosha (Questionable)
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap
There are a number of viable options at power forward tonight, but Millsap may top the list. He draws one of the best matchups on the board and his price is more than reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Bucks don’t rebound the ball well and they have really struggled to defend the paint. Millsap also racks up blocks and steals, which gives him that high floor that we are looking for in cash games.
FD — $8,400 — PF
DK — $8,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 22.0
Min/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 37.6 | Last Five Games: 36.5
Secondary Plays
Al Horford
Horford went on a three-game tear, but then followed it up with a 2.4 fantasy point outing against the Hornets. This has been the anti-Horford, as we are generally used to seeing a player with a high floor but a somewhat limited ceiling. He is not my favorite option at center, but I do like his price on DraftKings.
FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $6,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 17.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.2 | Last Five Games: 30.1
FP/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 34.7
Kent Bazemore
Keep your eye on Thabo Sefolosha tonight. If he is unable to suit up, Bazemore could see minutes in the low to mid-30’s. He has been extremely productive recently, averaging over a fantasy point per minute. The issue has been his playing time, but if Sefolosha sits, that could solve the problem.
FD — $5,700 — SG
DK — $6,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.3 | Last Five Games: 19.1
Min/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 27.5
FP/Game — Season: 24.1 | Last Five Games: 26.3
Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 16-25 — Home: 11-7 — Last 10: 4-6
- Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 97.9 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5 (6 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.6
The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games and are now 16-25 on the season. The good news is that they have played well at home, sporting an 11-7 record. They are projected to score 102.5 points tonight against the Hawks. The high total has more to do with their recent increase in pace than it does their actual matchup.
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.9 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.5 (19 of 30)
The Hawks have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 13th and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Atlanta’s biggest weakness has been on the glass, as they are ranked dead last in rebounding differential. Jerryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo are both questionable for tonight’s game, but both are more likely to sit than they are to play.
- Injury Watch:
Jerryd Bayless (Questionable)
O.J. Mayo (Questionable)
Elite Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo
If we look at DraftKings’ scoring, Antetokounmpo has combined for 100 fantasy points in his last two games – 100 fantasy points! His price has come up on FanDuel, but he is still only $6,700 on DraftKings. He can be inconsistent at times, but he is an elite tournament play again tonight and a borderline elite cash game option as well.
FD — $7,400 — SG
DK — $6,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 18.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 34.4
Khris Middleton
Middleton just continues to put up quality performance after quality performance. Over his last five gams, he is averaging 34.9 fantasy points in 39.5 minutes per contest. If Jerryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo are out again tonight, Middleton could push for 40 minutes in a decent matchup against the Hawks.
FD — $6,900 — SF
DK — $6,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 39.5
FP/Game — Season: 27.9 | Last Five Games: 34.9
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe
Monroe’s minutes and production are both trending in the right direction. The one knock on him is that Jason Kidd will only give him 25 minutes every now and then. The matchup is certainly favorable, as the Hawks have the worst rebounding differential in the NBA this season.
FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $6,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 34.0
Michael Carter-Williams
MCW can be considered an elite play tonight on FanDuel, but he is more of a secondary option on DraftKings. As long as Jerryd Bayless is out, he should see minutes in the mid-30’s in a game that has one of the highest totals on the board tonight.
FD — $6,700 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.5 | Last Five Games: 18.2
Min/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 32.9
FP/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 33.2
