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NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-07 04:27:23

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Washington Wizards
minnesotanba Vegas Total 211.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 108.3
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- -1.6
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 13 9 22 10 DvP 21 9 7 4 18
DRPM -0.26 -0.89 1.07 1.24 1.35 DRPM 1.12 -2.91 -2.36 2.88 -1.81

Minnesota Timberwolves

Happy Friday everyone and welcome to another edition of the NBA Grind Down. As always, we appreciate you coming to RotoGrinders for all of your daily fantasy sports research. We start with the Wolves and Wizards in what is expected to be a close, high scoring games. The Wizards have struggled defensively all season, ranking 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wolves come into the game with an implied total of 103.3 points.

Ricky Rubio minutes have come back down in his last five games and we should no longer project him to play 35 minutes a night. With so many great options at point guard, he is a deep GPP play at best against a Wizards’ defense that is ranked seventh against point guards. Zach LaVine has a volatility to his game, but he has shown a high ceiling and the Wizards have historically struggled against talented wing scorers. LaVine is a strong tournament play in this eight game slate. Dollar for dollar, Andrew Wiggins is my favorite play on the Wolves. He doesn’t provide a lot in terms of peripheral stats, but he does have a 27.3% true usage rate and we know Tom Thibodeau isn’t afraid to play him 40 minutes. Gorgui Dieng is a high-floor cash game target against Markieff Morris and the Wizards, who have struggled against power forwards this season. Karl-Anthony Towns is always in play for tournaments, but he doesn’t grade out as an elite play for cash games. I’d rather take the savings with Joel Embiid, Greg Monroe, or Nikola Vucevic.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $5,700 $5,500 0.77 31.3 -0.5 24.3 -5.2 17.3% -3.8% 7 -0.26
Zach LaVine $6,400 $6,700 0.78 37.6 0.8 29.4 -1.2 23.3% -0.4% 13 -0.89
Andrew Wiggins $6,400 $6,800 0.82 36.7 1.1 30.2 0.4 27.3% 0.9% 9 1.07
Gorgui Dieng $5,600 $5,800 0.79 32.8 0.2 25.9 0.9 15.3% -1.8% 22 1.24
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,400 $9,600 1.16 35.3 1.1 41.1 1.6 27.4% -1.1% 10 1.35

Elite Plays – Zach LaVine (GPP), Andrew Wiggins (FD)

Secondary Plays – Zach LaVine (Cash), Andrew Wiggins (DK), Gorgui Dieng, Karl-Anthony Towns

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won six of their last ten games and draw a favorable matchup tonight against the visiting Wolves. This has been a favorable matchup for fantasy production all year, as the Wolves are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. Washington comes into the game as 5-point favorites with an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate and 3.1 points above their season average. If there is one thing that we have learned about the Wizards this season, it’s that they aren’t afraid to get into shootouts with their opponents.

John Wall has scored at least 41 fantasy points in each of his last five games. Looking at different models and projections across the industry, he may not be as popular tonight as I originally thought he might be. The way I see it, he’s a tough fade right now. Ricky Rubio may have a positive Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) grade, but the Wolves are ranked 21st against point guards this season. With a high team total and one of the highest true usage rates in the NBA, Wall is an elite play in all formats. Bradley Beal is averaging 36 fantasy points over his last three games and gets to match up against Zach LaVine, who has one of the worst DRPM’s in the entire NBA. Otto Porter price has come down on FanDuel, which puts him in play on a site where we have to roster two small forwards. Playing Markieff Morris is like playing with fire. It rarely turns out well and you typically leave with a burn or two. Marcin Gortat is playing more minutes than any center in the NBA right now. He is a strong play in all formats, but the center position is stacked tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,700 $10,100 1.25 36.3 -0.2 45.2 -0.1 34.8% -1.7% 21 1.12
Bradley Beal $7,000 $6,900 0.93 34.3 1.1 31.8 4.4 26.6% 4.4% 9 -2.91
Otto Porter $5,600 $6,000 0.82 33.7 0.0 27.7 -2.8 15.1% -0.6% 7 -2.36
Markieff Morris $4,900 $4,900 0.76 31.1 -4.6 23.8 -2.8 19.8% -0.9% 4 2.88
Marcin Gortat $6,500 $6,200 0.84 35.9 1.2 30.2 5.9 14.0% 3.6% 18 -1.81

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter

Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Orlando Magic
houstonnba Vegas Total 223.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 223.5
Vegas Spread -5.5 Vegas Spread 5.5
Team Total 114.5 Team Total 109.0
Pace +/- -1.1 Pace +/- 2.4
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Nene Hilario Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 22 9 16 6 25 DvP 10 24 19 20 19
DRPM -0.50 -1.24 -1.35 0.61 1.40 DRPM 1.23 -1.39 1.74 -0.79 2.04

Houston Rockets

The Rockets picked up a win against the Thunder last night thanks to a questionable call at best that put Nene Hilario at the line with 0.7 seconds left. They have played great basketball all season and they will look to continue that trend tonight against the Magic. This game has all the makings of a shootout, as the Rockets are 5.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 223.5 points. The Rockets have an implied total of 114.5 points, which is the second highest in the slate.

James Harden didn’t record a triple-double last night, but he was able to secure a win over Russell Westbrook and the Thunder. If the regular season ended today, he would be the favorite to win the MVP. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic, who don’t have a single point guard or shooting guard on their roster with a positive DRPM grade. Harden remains an elite play in all formats, especially in a cash game setting. Patrick Beverley logged a ton of minutes last night, but should be able to suit up for tonight’s contest. He is worth a look if you are playing in a smaller slate, but the point guard position is too deep to warrant consideration in the main slate. Trevor Ariza is playing a ton of minutes lately and is averaging over 28 fantasy points per game in his last three outings. The final play of note is Montrezl Harrell, who has played at least 29 minutes and has scored at least 21 fantasy points in four straight games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,900 $5,400 0.83 30.7 0.3 25.6 2.5 15.8% -3.4% 22 -0.50
James Harden $11,800 $12,200 1.47 36.6 4.1 53.7 9.9 38.5% 2.0% 9 -1.24
Trevor Ariza $5,900 $5,900 0.76 33.8 5.4 25.8 2.8 15.0% -0.5% 16 -1.35
Ryan Anderson $5,500 $5,600 0.73 30.7 2.4 22.3 2.6 17.1% -3.1% 6 0.61
Nene Hilario $3,500 $3,500 0.85 16.7 -2.4 14.3 1.7 18.7% 2.2% 25 1.40
Eric Gordon $5,800 $5,800 0.85 30.5 1.8 25.8 3.8 23.6% 4.8% 9 N/A
Montrezl Harrell $5,000 $5,500 0.90 18.1 13.6 16.2 8.3 17.8% -4.5% 25 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Montrezl Harrell (FD)

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley, Eric Gordon, Montrezl Harrell (DK)

Orlando Magic

The Magic have picked up their pace of play recently. While 20th in the league doesn’t seem great, they were one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA a few weeks ago. They draw a favorable matchup against another uptempo team in the Rockets. The Magic may be underdogs here, but they are facing a bad defense of a team that is playing their second game in as many nights. Orlando has an implied total of 109 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and 9.8 points above their season average.

Given their massive implied team total, we can give the entire Magic offense a boost tonight. Elfrid Payton is back in the good graces of DFS players everywhere, after playing well off the bench and being promoted back into the starting lineup. While a matchup against Patrick Beverley is less than ideal, the minute boost and the overall game environment make up for it. I see Payton as an elite tournament play and a secondary cash game option. If Evan Fournier is back in the starting lineup tonight, he would become a strong play in all formats. He played 30 minutes the other night and we know how bad the Rockets struggle against shooting guards. Aaron Gordon is still a GPP-only type of play for me. His range of outcomes is too broad to use in cash games. Serge Ibaka usage goes down with Fournier back in the lineup and at his price point, I’d rather spend up a bit more to target either Jabari Parker or Julius Randle. Nikola Vucevic is one of the top point-per-dollar plays at center tonight, especially on DraftKings where he is only $6,300.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $6,300 $6,000 0.92 28.9 2.6 26.5 3.6 24.6% -2.1% 10 1.23
Evan Fournier $6,000 $5,800 0.80 33.3 -3.8 26.5 -9.8 24.1% 0.9% 24 -1.39
Aaron Gordon $4,800 $4,900 0.78 26.2 2.0 20.6 9.6 20.2% 5.5% 19 1.74
Serge Ibaka $6,800 $6,400 0.95 30.5 1.4 28.9 -1.1 20.5% 3.8% 20 -0.79
Bismack Biyombo $4,200 $3,600 0.75 25.8 -4.9 19.4 -7.4 12.5% -2.4% 19 2.04
Nikola Vucevic $6,900 $6,300 1.14 28.0 2.4 32.0 3.3 24.8% 0.2% 19 N/A
Elfrid Payton $6,300 $6,000 0.92 28.9 2.6 26.5 3.6 24.6% -2.1% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Evan Fournier (if starting), Nikola Vucevic (DK)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Nikola Vucevic (FD), Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Boston Celtics
philadelphianba Vegas Total 214.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 101.3 Team Total 112.8
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- 0.5
Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 16 5 26 22 22 DvP 20 18 25 12 25
DRPM -3.75 -2.08 1.20 1.34 1.62 DRPM -1.26 -0.27 1.90 0.06 1.03

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers no longer have the worst record in the NBA. They currently own a one game lead over the Nets in the win column. Even though they aren’t winning games now, there are reasons to be excited about this team in the coming years. It will be interesting to see what they do at the trade deadline, as they have two attractive pieces that they aren’t really utilizing in Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor. The Sixers come into tonight’s game as 11.5-point underdogs against the Celtics. While the spread isn’t appealing, the Sixers are projected to score 2.5 points more than their season average.

Sergio Rodriguez was originally listed as probable for tonight’s game, but he has been downgraded to questionable. If he is unable to suit up, T.J. McConnell would draw the start and become the best value play on the board on FanDuel. His price on DraftKings is high enough that you could consider a fade. If Rodriguez is active, I will probably be avoiding both point guards, as they would likely split minutes. Robert Covington is wildly inconsistent, but he will pop off for a 40-fantasy point outing every now and then. He is worth a look in tournaments, especially on FanDuel where we have to roster two small forwards. Joel Embiid is my favorite play at center tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Celtics are ranked 22nd against centers and 28th in rebounding differential this season. Embiid is also averaging 42 fantasy points in his last three games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Sergio Rodriguez $4,700 $4,400 0.82 26.8 -11.3 21.9 -16.5 23.9% 10.0% 16 -3.75
Gerald Henderson $3,500 $3,200 0.64 24.6 15.8 17.3% 5 -2.08
Robert Covington $5,300 $5,300 0.74 29.8 3.0 22.1 5.2 18.0% 1.6% 26 1.20
Ersan Ilyasova $5,800 $6,000 0.89 27.2 4.0 24.1 8.0 21.1% 0.9% 22 1.34
Joel Embiid $7,200 $7,700 1.34 25.1 4.1 33.5 8.9 34.7% 2.7% 22 1.62
T.J. McConnell $4,100 $5,500 0.78 20.8 11.7 16.3 6.2 19.2% -1.1% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – T.J. McConnell (if Rodriguez is out), Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have won eight of their last ten games and have climbed up to third place in the Eastern Conference standings. They draw one of the top matchups on the board tonight, as they get to square off against the Sixers at home. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Celtics have an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate. The main concern here is a potential blowout, as the C’s are listed as 11.5-point favorites.

As I always mention in this article, I generally don’t shy away from the favored team in potential blowouts. The reasoning is simple: if the favored team gets ahead by a large margin, the starters will likely have played well anyway. And if the game stays close, we get to target players in an ideal matchup in a spot where their ownership is lower than it should be. Isaiah Thomas is an elite tournament play on both sites and you can look at him for cash games on DraftKings. He is averaging 53 fantasy points in his last three games. Avery Bradley is a sneaky play at shooting guard. His production has been down recently, but the matchup is ideal. The same can be said about Jae Crowder, although Robert Covington is the one Sixers’ defender that is actually capable. Al Horford is worth a look in tournaments, as his ownership should be under 10% on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,200 $8,300 1.20 33.5 1.9 40.2 13.3 34.8% -1.4% 20 -1.26
Avery Bradley $6,200 $6,100 0.88 35.0 -1.9 30.9 -6.8 22.1% 2.3% 18 -0.27
Jae Crowder $5,300 $5,200 0.77 31.6 1.8 24.5 0.7 16.2% -3.2% 25 1.90
Amir Johnson $4,000 $3,800 0.79 20.3 1.7 16.0 0.4 14.4% -1.2% 12 0.06
Al Horford $7,400 $6,900 1.05 32.8 -2.3 34.4 -5.9 23.1% -0.3% 25 1.03
Marcus Smart $4,700 $4,400 0.73 29.8 1.1 21.8 -4.8 19.6% -4.3% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley

Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder, Al Horford

Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Brooklyn Nets
clevelandnba Vegas Total 220.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 220.0
Vegas Spread -13.5 Vegas Spread 13.5
Team Total 116.8 Team Total 103.3
Pace +/- 5.2 Pace +/- 0.0
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving DeAndre Liggins LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Harris Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 30 29 30 27 30 DvP 17 26 13 3 6
DRPM -0.75 -2.72 -0.96 2.19 -0.24 DRPM -1.77 1.15 1.34 1.99 1.87

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have won eight of their last ten games and are a safe bet to have the best record in the Eastern Conference when the regular season ends. It’s been a while since their big three have played together, but all three are expected to play tonight against the Nets. This is one of those tricky matchups, as the Nets are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The upside for the Cavaliers’ offense is massive, as evidenced by their implied total of 116.8 points. The main concern here is that the game turns into a blowout and the starters only see three quarters of action.

For the same reasons that I talked about earlier, I will not be fading the Cavaliers’ side of the ball tonight, especially in tournaments. Their offense is so concentrated that we know where the production is going to come from. Kyrie Irving was playing his best basketball of the season before getting hurt. While his price on FanDuel seems a bit too high, he is certainly worth a look on DraftKings. LeBron James should be the highest owned small forward in the slate, especially on FanDuel at a price of only $10,000. People will be scared to target Kevin Love after he lost a bunch of weight with food poisoning, but a 150-pound Love could dominate this Nets’ frontcourt. All three deserve consideration tonight and I don’t mind using them in a game stack with a Nets’ player or two in hopes that this stays close. Tristan Thompson is a nice buy-low candidate against a Nets’ team that leads in the NBA in blocked shots allowed this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,600 $7,800 1.07 34.7 37.1 30.9% 30 -0.75
DeAndre Liggins $3,500 $3,000 0.50 16.2 6.5 8.2 2.6 11.6% 1.3% 29 -2.72
LeBron James $10,000 $10,500 1.29 37.1 0.1 48.0 0.9 33.7% 3.6% 30 -0.96
Kevin Love $8,300 $8,100 1.21 31.7 -0.1 38.3 -4.0 27.0% 4.0% 27 2.19
Tristan Thompson $4,700 $4,500 0.78 28.9 1.1 22.6 -5.8 10.2% -1.8% 30 -0.24
Richard Jefferson $3,500 $3,500 0.50 19.7 5.7 9.8 4.0 12.6% 1.7% 30 N/A
Channing Frye $3,700 $4,300 0.82 18.8 5.2 15.4 2.9 18.9% -3.3% 27 N/A
Jordan McRae $3,800 $4,600 0.73 12.0 14.8 8.8 13.5 22.3% -1.9% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving (DK), Kevin Love (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (FD), Kevin Love (Cash), Tristan Thompson

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are coming off of another road loss last night. They only have eight wins on the season, but seven of those have come at home. I’m not sure that they will be able to keep pace with the Cavaliers tonight, but if there was a spot for them to do it, this would be it. Despite being huge underdogs, the Nets are still projected to score 103.3 points, which isn’t too far below their season average. The Nets basically emptied their bench last night, which led to fewer minutes for the starters. Regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench, Sean Kilpatrick is my favorite play here. He is only $4,700 on FanDuel and he sees a nice usage boost with Jeremy Lin off the floor. I also don’t mind going back to Trevor Booker in tournaments, as he only played 20 minutes last night against the Pacers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Whitehead $3,600 $3,500 0.64 22.5 0.5 14.4 -0.6 18.8% 3.2% 17 -1.77
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,100 $4,200 0.73 26.4 -7.0 19.3 -6.6 20.8% -1.9% 26 1.15
Joe Harris $3,500 $3,200 0.64 23.5 0.5 15.1 -2.6 16.4% -1.5% 13 1.34
Trevor Booker $5,500 $5,700 0.97 27.5 -2.9 26.6 2.3 17.2% 7.8% 3 1.99
Brook Lopez $7,500 $6,500 1.12 29.0 0.2 32.5 -7.6 27.9% -3.7% 6 1.87
Sean Kilpatrick $4,700 $5,300 0.86 27.6 -2.2 23.8 -6.2 24.9% -3.4% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Sean Kilpatrick (FD)

Secondary Plays – Sean Kilpatrick (DK), Trevor Booker

New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Milwaukee Bucks
newyorknba Vegas Total 213.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 109.5
Pace +/- -1.0 Pace +/- 1.2
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 6 14 28 15 9 DvP 13 29 12 12 28
DRPM 3.54 -0.18 -0.88 -1.57 1.42 DRPM -1.87 -0.30 -1.74 1.50 1.72

New York Knicks

The Knicks and Bucks just faced each other in Madison Square Garden and they now have a rematch, only this time the game will be played in Milwaukee. Thanks to a buzzer-beater from Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Knicks have now lost six straight games. They come into tonight’s contest as 5.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 104 points. The good news for Knicks’ fans is that Kristaps Porzingis was able to make it through shoot-around this morning. He is fully expected to play tonight, after missing the last three games with an Achilles injury.

Derrick Rose has played well since returning from injury, but he is a fairly easy fade tonight. His price is up across the industry and his usage rate will go down with Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup. Carmelo Anthony will also see a slight bump down in usage, but he is coming off of arguably his best game of the season. His price is a little higher than I’d like to pay for him on the road, but Anthony is a borderline elite play in all formats. Keep an eye on an update regarding a potential minute restriction for Porzingis tonight. If he has no restriction, he immediately becomes a top GPP play. Everyone is always scared to take injured players in their first game back. I’m as happy as anyone about Joakim Noah resurgence, but I’d like to see him do it with Porzingis on the floor next to him before I use him again in DFS.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,400 $6,000 0.89 32.1 2.0 28.7 0.5 28.3% 1.2% 6 3.54
Courtney Lee $4,100 $3,900 0.57 31.1 4.8 17.9 1.9 14.0% -0.3% 14 -0.18
Carmelo Anthony $7,900 $7,900 1.04 33.5 -3.3 34.8 0.6 28.9% 0.8% 28 -0.88
Kristaps Porzingis $7,900 $7,000 1.01 34.8 35.2 23.5% 15 -1.57
Joakim Noah $5,100 $5,500 0.95 23.0 7.7 21.8 13.2 14.1% 0.0% 9 1.42

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have won three games in a row and six of their last ten. I wish I remember who Tweeted this, so I could give them full credit, but someone said that the Bucks’ draft over the last few years has been like hitting a home run (Giannis Antetokounmpo), a triple (Jabari Parker), and a clutch single (Malcolm Brogdon). You could even take is a step further and say that Khris Middleton is a ground-rule double. The Bucks draw a premier matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. With an implied total of 109.5 points, we can give a boost to the Bucks’ offense as a whole.

Giannis Antetokounmpo basically scores at least 40 fantasy points every game. When he doesn’t put up 50 fantasy points, it’s surprising. The Knicks don’t have anyone that can defend him and Kristaps Porzingis being back may actually give Giannis a better matchup. Instead of facing Lance Thomas, Giannis will now get to face the likes of Courtney Lee and Carmelo Anthony. Yes, please. Malcolm Brogdon has been terrific filling in for Matthew Dellavedova and for some reason, FanDuel refuses to bump up his salary. I will continue to take that free square in cash games. Jabari Parker has much better splits at home and after burning a lot of people the other night, his ownership will be lower than it should be. I’m more than willing to hop right back on him in a game where the Bucks are projected to score nearly 110 points. Greg Monroe has played at least 27 minutes in three of his last four games and is averaging 35 fantasy points during that stretch. His price is high, but we’ve seen what he can do against this Knicks’ frontcourt.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,700 $10,700 1.37 35.3 4.8 48.4 9.0 29.8% -0.4% 13 -1.87
Malcolm Brogdon $4,600 $5,700 0.76 23.6 13.0 17.9 13.4 19.8% 0.1% 29 -0.30
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,300 0.53 28.9 -4.0 15.2 -7.5 12.7% -3.4% 12 -1.74
Jabari Parker $7,000 $7,300 0.94 33.8 5.5 31.9 -1.1 25.2% -4.0% 12 1.50
John Henson $3,700 $3,400 0.87 20.3 -2.2 17.8 -7.2 16.2% -6.6% 28 1.72
Greg Monroe $5,500 $5,800 1.16 20.4 10.2 23.6 11.8 23.3% -1.4% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Malcolm Brogdon (FD), Greg Monroe (FD)

Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon (DK), Greg Monroe (DK)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious