NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-03-09 21:19:38

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		209.5					Vegas Total		209.5
			Vegas Spread		8.5					Vegas Spread		-8.5
			Implied Team Total		100.5					Implied Team Total		109.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.0					Pace Projection +/-		0.8
Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	4	15	10	27		DvP	22	19	30	27	28
DRPM Rat.	18	1	26	7	17		DRPM Rat.	29	2	26	15	13

Atlanta Hawks

We have an intriguing slate tonight, as most of my favorite targets come from a few select teams. This will lead to a lot of dis-interest in some of these games. The Hawks have no reason to push the envelope at this point of the season and come into tonight’s game as 8.5-point underdogs against the Pacers. Atlanta has an implied total of 100.5 points, which is the second lowest on the board and three points below their season average.

I should mention that Tiger Woods is currently leading the Valspar Championship, which is going to make writing the Grind Down a difficult proposition. For my loyal readers, I will try to power through my fandom of the GOAT. The Hawks are basically the anti-Tiger tonight, as I will be fading them completely. Dennis Schroder is cheap, but he has played fewer than 28 minutes in four of his last six games. There are better options at shooting guard and small forward than Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince and we can’t rely on the Hawks’ frontcourt in this slate.

Notable Injuries

DeAndre’ Bembry (Out)
Malcolm Delaney (Out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (19 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.1 (17 of 20)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have their sights set on home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They are currently ranked fifth in the Eastern Conference standings, so the next few weeks will be crucial. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. They come into tonight’s game with an implied total of 109 points, which is three points above their season average.

Darren Collison is expected to play tonight, which will likely send Cory Joseph back to the bench. It may also cut into the minutes of Lance Stephenson and Bojan Bogdanovic, as there are now four players that will see significant playing time off the bench. Victor Oladipo price has come down, but I prefer DeMar DeRozan and Jrue Holiday at similar price points. Myles Turner is really the only Pacers’ player on my radar, which is strange given the matchup. Turner has massive upside at his price point and center is the thinnest position on the board tonight. The Hawks are currently ranked 28th in DvP against centers and 26th in rebounding differential.

Notable Injuries

Darren Collison (Probable)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (10 of 20)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Myles Turner (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Myles Turner (Cash)

Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Implied Team Total		102.3					Implied Team Total		110.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.1					Pace Projection +/-		0.6
Projected Starters	Kris Dunn	Zach LaVine	Justin Holiday	Lauri Markkanen	Robin Lopez		Projected Starters	Ish Smith	Reggie Bullock	James Ennis	Blake Griffin	Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	10	7	29	18	7		DvP	24	27	16	21	21
DRPM Rat.	14	24	25	25	11		DRPM Rat.	13	27	6	25	20

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are going to be an untrustworthy source of fantasy production the rest of the season. After getting warned by the NBA, they have decided to start both Justin Holiday and Robin Lopez. This only complicates matters, as neither player is expected to see more than a handful of minutes. The Bulls are still in development mode with their younger players. A matchup against the Pistons isn’t as bad as it looks on paper, but an implied total of 102.3 points is less than appealing.

We always have to look at the bigger picture when it comes to DFS. If there were only four games on the schedule, we would have no choice but to target some of the Bulls. With ten games on the schedule and some big injuries (Anthony Davis, Aaron Gordon, Stephen Curry), I don’t see a reason to force any of the Bulls into my lineups. Kris Dunn is my favorite play of the bunch, as he should still see his 30-32 minutes in a decent matchup against Ish Smith. Zach LaVine also carries some deep tournament appeal against Reggie Bullock, who does not defend the perimeter well.

Notable Injuries

Paul Zipser (Doubtful)

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (17 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (12 of 20)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (GPP), Zach LaVine (GPP)

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons lost another game on Wednesday night and are all but out of playoff contention in the Eastern Conference. Luckily, they don’t have any young players that they need to give more minutes, so we can still expect their stars to play a lot down the stretch of the regular season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Detroit has an implied total of 110.3 points, which is seven points above their season average.

I have more interest in the Pistons than I do in the Bulls, but that’s not exactly saying a whole lot. Ish Smith has played big minutes recently, but his fantasy production is clearly trending in the wrong direction. With Stanley Johnson and Dwight Buycks both out tonight, Reggie Bullock, James Ennis, and Luke Kennard should all log heavy minutes. While I don’t mind their price points, there are three small forwards at similar price points that have more upside (E’Twaun Moore, Jonathon Simmons, Mario Hezonja).

Blake Griffin is an interesting pivot off of Draymond Green in tournaments, as the Bulls are ranked 28th in efficiency against power forwards. Andre Drummond is the one Pistons’ player that I may consider in cash games. Center is rather thin tonight and with plenty of value elsewhere, it could be a good position to spend up on. Drummond has 20-20 type of upside against a team that doesn’t defend the paint or rebound well.

Notable Injuries

Stanley Johnson (Out)
Dwight Buycks (Out)

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 103.1 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.3 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 7.2 (3 of 20)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond

Secondary Plays – Reggie Bullock, James Ennis, Blake Griffin

Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		220.5					Vegas Total		220.5
			Vegas Spread		-2.0					Vegas Spread		2.0
			Implied Team Total		111.3					Implied Team Total		109.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.8					Pace Projection +/-		0.8
Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	Norman Powell	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	5	3	4	8	19		DvP	7	16	12	3	23
DRPM Rat.	3	22	19	13	14		DRPM Rat.	2	18	14	9	3

Houston Rockets

While I have more interest in some of the other games when it comes to DFS, this is the game that I’m most excited to watch. The Rockets have won 17 games in a row, while the Raptors have won nine of their last ten. The spread is currently set at two points, so we should see a full complement of minutes for the starters. Houston comes into the game with an implied total of 111.3 points, which is the seventh highest on the board and three points below their season average.

Chris Paul has a difficult matchup against Kyle Lowry, but as I pointed out earlier in the week, I almost prefer Paul to be facing another elite point guard. He seems to take these matchups personally and with such a close spread, I’m bumping his minute projection up to 33-35. At a price of $7,500 on DraftKings, Paul is on my radar in all formats. James Harden has some fantasy appeal on FanDuel where we have plenty of cap space to work with tonight. If you are planning to load up on the value plays that we will get to later, you’ll have to spend up somewhere. Clint Capela hasn’t been able to hit a free throw in the last two games, which has led to fewer minutes and consequently, less fantasy production. This will likely be the game where he trolls us all and breaks out, so it’s not the worst idea to get some exposure to him in large-field tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Ryan Anderson (Out)
Clint Capela (Probable)
Eric Gordon (Probable)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 114.0 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (15 of 20)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – James Harden (FD), Chris Paul (DK)

Secondary Plays – James Harden (DK), Chris Paul (FD), Clint Capela (GPP)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are looking to claim title to the first seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They have a tough test in front of them tonight, as they square off against a Rockets’ team that has the best record in basketball. Houston has a stout defense, but this should be a fast-paced game and the Raptors are playing at home. Toronto has an implied of 109.3 points, which is only the 11th highest of the slate (how crazy is that?).

Kyle Lowry is coming off of a huge game against the Pistons and could potentially play 35+ minutes tonight against the Rockets. The issue is his matchup against Chris Paul, who is one of the best defenders in basketball. I would rather play DeMar DeRozan, who has an elite true usage rate (29%) and a better matchup. DeRozan has averaged 40 fantasy points over his last five games and is affordable on both FanDuel ($8,200) and DraftKings ($7,600). Fred VanVleet and C.J. Miles will see a few extra minutes with Delon Wright and OG Anunboy out again, but they are fringe tournament plays in this slate. Jonas Valanciunas has some tournament appeal on DraftKings ($5,700). Even though Clint Capela is a good defender, the Rockets as a whole have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to centers this season.

Notable Injuries

Delon Wright (Out)
OG Anunboy (Out)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 112.0 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (15 of 20)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (DK GPP)

Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Memphis Grizzlies
			Vegas Total		197.5					Vegas Total		197.5
			Vegas Spread		-9.0					Vegas Spread		9.0
			Implied Team Total		103.3					Implied Team Total		94.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.6					Pace Projection +/-		-2.2
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert		Projected Starters	Kobi Simmons	Ben McLemore	Dillon Brooks	JaMychal Green	Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	16	24	11	13	1		DvP	12	1	5	5	14
DRPM Rat.	23	15	17	28	10		DRPM Rat.	5	12	8	7	1

Utah Jazz

The Jazz have won four games in a row and eight of their last ten games. They are now a single loss behind three playoffs teams in the Western Conference. With Memphis playing to lose, the Jazz should be able to pick up another win tonight. From a fantasy perspective, the matchup is far from ideal. The Grizzlies are ranked dead last in pace of play and seventh in points allowed per game. The Jazz have an implied total of 103.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

Ricky Rubio draws a nice matchup against the likes of Kobi Simmons and Xavier Rathan-Mayes. Rubio has averaged 34 fantasy points over his last five games. While I don’t love the price point, he does make an intriguing tournament pivot off of the more popular Rajon Rondo. Donovan Mitchell is playing as many minutes as anyone right now and we know the rookie isn’t scared to fire up shots. At a price of only $7,000 on DraftKings, he’s worth a look in all formats. Rudy Gobert draws a tough individual matchup against Marc Gasol, but should log 35+ minutes tonight. Gobert is slightly overpriced on FanDuel ($9,200) and slightly underpriced on DraftKings ($7,700).

Notable Injuries

None

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 102.7 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (16 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (11 of 20)

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (30 of 30)

Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio (DK GPP), Rudy Gobert (DK)

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have lost 15 games in a row and own the worst record of any team in the NBA. They are on track to have the most ping pong balls in the lottery, so it’s safe to say they have no incentive to win. To make matters worse, they draw an awful matchup against the Jazz, who are ranked third in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies have the lowest implied total (94.3 points) and the worst projected point differential (-4.8) on the board tonight.

While I won’t be targeting any Grizzlies’ players in cash games, there are some intriguing tournament plays. We’ll start with Kobi Simmons, who has averaged 26 minutes and 26 fantasy points in his two starts at point guard. Ben McLemore has played 38 and 37 minutes in his last two games and should see something in that range again tonight. Dillon Brooks is coming off of the best game in his career. And finally, JaMychal Green and Marc Gasol would see a boost if Jarell Martin is ruled out. This is not a great matchup by any means, but there are five plays that you can target in large-field tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Tyreke Evans (Out)
Mario Chalmers (Out)
Chandler Parsons (Out)
Andrew Harrison (Out)
Jarell Martin (Questionable)

Memphis Grizzlies Offense

Points Per Game: 99.1 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 94.3 (20 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -4.8 (20 of 20)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kobi Simmons (GPP), Ben McLemore (GPP), Dillon Brooks (GPP), JaMychal Green (GPP), Marc Gasol (GPP)

New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

New York Knicks							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		10.0					Vegas Spread		-10.0
			Implied Team Total		101.3					Implied Team Total		111.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.7					Pace Projection +/-		-0.5
Projected Starters	Emmanuel Mudiay	Frank Ntilikina	Tim Hardaway	Lance Thomas	Enes Kanter		Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	14	2	9	24		DvP	28	18	18	12	9
DRPM Rat.	8	26	25	3	5		DRPM Rat.	30	17	18	17	28

New York Knicks

If I had to describe this word in one game, I’d give it a solid “bleh.” The Knicks have nothing to play for and we’ve seen them limit the minutes of their veterans over the last few weeks. They come into tonight’s game as 10-point underdogs against a Bucks’ team that is ranked above the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Knicks have an implied total of only 101.3 points, which is three points below their season average.

With Courtney Lee out, there should be more minutes available for Emmanuel Mudiay, Trey Burke, and Frank Ntilikina. The problem is that none of them played very well in Lee’s absence the other night. The two best fantasy options here are Michael Beasley and Enes Kanter, but the Knicks have been limiting their minutes. It’s hard to target a player with confidence when we can’t project them to play more than 24-26 minutes. In my humble opinion, there is more risk than potential reward with the Knicks tonight.

Notable Injuries

Courtney Lee (Out)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.8 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.6 (14 of 20)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have lost seven of their last ten games, but thanks to some awful play from the Pistons, they are still a safe bet to make the playoffs. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 16th in points allowed per game and 21st in defensive efficiency. The Bucks have an implied total of 111.3 points, which is the seventh highest on the board and seven points above their season average.

There are exploitable matchups here, but we do have to worry about a blowout. I know it’s hard to predict blowouts in the NBA, but that doesn’t mean that we have to take the risk in a ten-game slate. Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are all intriguing tournament plays. Bledsoe has averaged 35 minutes over his last five games, Middleton is coming off of a strong outing against the Rockets, and Giannis has as much upside as any player in basketball. All three should be low owned in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Matthew Dellavedova (Out)
Tyler Zeller (Questionable)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.6 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 6.7 (4 of 20)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (17 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (GPP), Khris Middleton (GPP), Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP)

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