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NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-29 18:55:56

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

New Orleans Pelicans Orlando Magic
neworleansnba Vegas Total 205.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 98.90 Team Pace 97.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tyreke Evans Eric Gordon Alonzo Gee Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 10 18 15 13 9 Opp. Season 26 26 12 23 29
Opp. Last 7 5 26 10 26 3 Opp. Last 7 1 27 8 27 18

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 10-20 — Road: 3-14 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pelicans are only 10-20 on the season, but they are healthy and playing their best basketball of the season. They have won five of their last ten games and head to Orlando to take on the Magic tonight. This is a mediocre matchup, as the Pelicans are projected to score 101.8 points.

The Magic have a slightly better than average defense this season, ranking between eighth and 14th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Both of these teams don’t mind pushing the tempo and in what should be a close game throughout, this game could be a nice source of fantasy production.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis

Davis has played well over his last five games, averaging 47.9 fantasy points per contest. His price is still a bit too low for what he brings to the table. It appears that he is finally over his nagging injuries and hopefully he can start to shed the “soft” tag put on him. Channing Frye doesn’t stand much of a chance against Davis tonight.

FD — $10,400 — PF
DK — $10,500 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 36.4 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 45.0 | Last Five Games: 47.9

Secondary Plays

Tyreke Evans

Evans is always one of my favorite plays because he can accumulate fantasy points in a number of ways. He does a little bit of everything on the floor, which allows him to be productive even when his shot isn’t falling. I prefer Evans on DraftKings, as he is still listed as a shooting guard.

FD — $7,400 — PG
DK — $7,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 19.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 34.6

Orlando Magic

Record: 17-13 — Home: 10-6 — Last 10: 6-4

The Magic have won six of their last ten games and have quietly improved to 17-13 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans at home. Orlando is projected to score 103.8 points, which is 2.8 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Pelicans have really struggled defensively this season. They are ranked 25th or worse in all four defensive categories listed above. We can give a small boost to the Magic as a whole. Even though there are 11 games on the schedule, I don’t mind targeting 2-3 Magic players tonight.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic

Vucevic has been on fire over the last five games, averaging 41.7 fantasy points in 35.1 minutes per contest. Even though his price has come up, he remains an elite play tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked 29th against centers this season.

FD — $8,000 — C
DK — $7,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 24.3
Min/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 35.1
FP/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 41.7

Secondary Plays

Elfrid Payton

Payton has been dealing with an ankle injury, but he has played through it and he is coming off of an excellent game against the Heat. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked 26th against point guards this season.

FD — $6,500 — PG
DK — $6,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 28.3
FP/Game — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 26.9

Evan Fournier

Fournier was red-hot to start the season, he then went into hiding for a few weeks, and now he is back in the good graces of DFS’ers. Over his last five games, he is averaging 25.6 fantasy points in 32.7 minutes per game. He is a sneaky play tonight, as most people may not realize how well he has been playing.

FD — $5,200 — SG
DK — $5,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 15.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 25.6

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Indiana Pacers
atlantanba Vegas Total 206.0 indiananba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 98.60 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis C.J. Miles Paul George Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 4 23 4 19 18 Opp. Season 24 12 19 10 20
Opp. Last 7 26 11 14 22 13 Opp. Last 7 13 17 19 2 23

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 20-12 — Road: 8-6 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hawks have won seven of their last ten games and are now 20-12 on the season. Tonight they travel to Indiana to take on the Pacers, in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. The Hawks have an implied team total of 102 points, which is right around their average points per game this season.

The Pacers have been stout defensively this season. They are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Hawks matchup may not look great on paper, but the pace of the game should help negate the poor matchup.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap

Millsap’s price is a bit high on FanDuel, but he is sitting at a very playable $7,600 on DraftKings. Millsap is a player that has a high floor, making him a safe play in cash games.

FD — $8,300 — PF
DK — $7,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 22.3
Min/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 31.6
FP/Game — Season: 37.3 | Last Five Games: 34.3

Al Horford

Horford has been one of the most overlooked fantasy options this season. He almost always has a low ownership, even though he averages over 30 fantasy points per game.

FD — $6,900 — C
DK — $6,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 20.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 29.8

Indiana Pacers

Record: 17-12 — Home: 10-4 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pacers have lost five of their last ten games, but they are 10-4 at home with an impressive 17-12 record overall. Tonight they host the Hawks in a game that features a spread of only two points. The Pacers are projected to score 104 points, which is the fifth-highest team total on the board tonight.

The Hawks have been an average defensive team this season. They are ranked 13th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Their biggest weakness has been on the glass, as Atlanta has the second-worst rebounding differential in the NBA.

Elite Plays

Paul George

George has not been playing well recently, but he seems to show flashes of breaking out of his slump every game. As soon as he can piece together a complete game, he will be a terrific play at his price point. There is a good chance it comes tonight against the Hawks at home.

FD — $8,800 — SF
DK — $8,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 40.0 | Last Five Games: 30.8

Secondary Plays

NONE

Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Los Angeles Lakers Charlotte Hornets
lalakersnba Vegas Total 201.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd 12.5 Vegas Sprd -12.5
Team Proj. 94.5 Team Proj. 107.0
Team Pace 98.80 Team Pace 98.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jordan Clarkson Louis Williams Kobe Bryant “(player-popup)Larry Nance Jr Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 5 21 8 28 17 Opp. Season 30 26 21 24 30
Opp. Last 7 12 24 5 28 7 Opp. Last 7 30 21 23 15 16

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 5-26 — Road: 3-17 — Last 10: 2-8

The Lakers have lost eight of their last ten games and have dropped to 5-26 on the season. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets in a game where they are 12.5-point underdogs. The Lakers are only projected to score 94.5 points, which is the fourth-lowest team total on the board.

The Hornets have been fairly stout defensively this season, ranking ninth in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. This is a bad spot for the Lakers as a whole, especially given the large spread. Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but he is expected to play.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 16-13 — Home: 12-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hornets have lost five of their last ten games, but they are 12-5 at home this season. They should be able to take another win onto their resume tonight, as they host the struggling Lakers. Charlotte is projected to score 107 points tonight. Their team total is the second-highest on the board and it is 5.2 points higher than their average points per game this season.

It’s actually a pretty impressive feat. The Lakers have managed to be the worst defense and the worst rebounding team in the NBA this season. The Hornets see a nice fantasy boost as a whole, although some of that is negated by the potential blowout.

Elite Plays

Kemba Walker

There are a lot of reasons to like Walker tonight. Many may point to the matchup, but I’m more intrigued with the fact that he is averaging 41.4 minutes per game in his last five. The matchup obviously adds to his appeal though, as the Lakers are ranked dead last against point guards.

FD — $7,900 — PG
DK — $7,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 18.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 41.4
FP/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 32.2

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum

Batum has played well in his last five games, averaging 34.7 fantasy points in 36.1 minutes per contest. He is a borderline elite play tonight at home against the Lakers, although my plan is to limit my Hornets’ exposure to one player. The risk of a blowout makes targeting two Hornets a risky proposition.

FD — $7,200 — SF
DK — $7,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 18.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 36.1
FP/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 34.7

Los Angeles Clippers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Washington Wizards
laclippersnba Vegas Total 206.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 98.50 Team Pace 100.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Josh Smith DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 6 24 30 9 11 Opp. Season 8 10 17 7 15
Opp. Last 7 14 7 17 24 21 Opp. Last 7 16 2 30 7 1

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 18-13 — Road: 8-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Clippers have won six of their last ten games, but are going to have their hands full over the next few weeks. Blake Griffin is out for the foreseeable future with a torn quadriceps. The Clippers draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wizards. Los Angeles is projected to score 102.5 points, which is a high team total without Griffin in the lineup.

The Wizards are one of a handful of teams that is ranked in the bottom ten in all four of the defensive categories listed above. We can safely give a nice boost to the Clippers as a whole, especially since Blake Griffin is out. Josh Smith will likely draw another start, but he can be avoided for fantasy purposes. He played just five minutes the other night against the Jazz.

Elite Plays

DeAndre Jordan

Jordan has played 20 games without Blake Griffin. In those contests, he has averaged 13.4 points and 17.5 rebounds. This is a sizable increase over his season averages of 11.1 points and 13.4 rebounds per game. Jordan’s price has come up, but he is still my favorite center on the board tonight.

FD — $7,600 — C
DK — $7,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.4 | Last Five Games: 11.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 33.5

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul

Paul is a borderline elite play tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I have him listed as a secondary play solely because his price has come up across the industry. John Wall has been tough on opposing point guards, holding them to the sixth-lowest fantasy points per game.

FD — $9,000 — PG
DK — $9,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.9 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 36.7 | Last Five Games: 45.5

J.J. Redick

With Blake Griffin out, Redick should see a nice boost in usage. The Clippers are going to have to score points and he is their second-best offensive player behind Chris Paul.

FD — $4,800 — SG
DK — $5,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 18.3
Min/Game — Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 23.2

Washington Wizards

Record: 14-14 — Home: 7-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Wizards have won six of their last ten games and they have clawed their way back to .500 on the season. Tonight they are listed as 1.5-point favorites against the Clippers. Washington is projected to score 104 points, which is the fifth-highest team total on the board.

The Clippers have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 11th and 16th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Blake Griffin isn’t an elite defender by any means, but you have to think that his absence will hurt their defense as a whole. The Wizards are expected to be without Bradley Beal, Nene Hilario, Gary Neal, and Drew Gooden tonight.

Elite Plays

Marcin Gortat

It’s not often when my two favorite plays at center are squaring off against one another. Gortat has been tremendous over his last five games, averaging 39.1 fantasy points per contest. With all of the injuries to the Wizards’ frontcourt, he should see minutes in the mid to upper-30’s again tonight.

FD — $7,100 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 18.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 36.7
FP/Game — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 39.1

Secondary Plays

John Wall

Wall is coming off of a strong five-game stretch, averaging 45.1 fantasy points per contest. He will continue to carry the load offensively with Bradley Beal out, but Wall’s price is a bit too high for his matchup against Chris Paul.

FD — $10,000 — PG
DK — $9,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 24.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 38.2
FP/Game — Season: 40.4 | Last Five Games: 45.1

Garrett Temple

Temple continues to see starter’s minutes with Bradley Beal and Gary Neal out. Over his last five games, he is averaging 25 fantasy points in 32.4 minutes per contest. He is a viable punt play at PG/SG.

FD — $4,300 — PG
DK — $4,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 15.5
Min/Game — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 13.5 | Last Five Games: 25.0

Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Brooklyn Nets Miami Heat
brooklynnba Vegas Total 194.0 miaminba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 92.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 98.00 Team Pace 95.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 3 4 20 2 8 Opp. Season 28 24 18 6 27
Opp. Last 7 7 8 4 9 8 Opp. Last 7 22 9 15 19 25

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 8-22 — Road: 2-12 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have been awful on the road this season, winning only two of their 14 games. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Heat in Miami. Brooklyn is only projected to score 92.5 points, which is the third-lowest team total on the board.

The Heat play at a slow pace and have one of the best defenses in the entire NBA. On the season, they are ranked second in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. In addition to the poor matchup, the Nets are also 9-point underdogs tonight. They can be avoided in all league formats.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Miami Heat

Record: 18-11 — Home: 13-6 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have win six of their last ten games and have improved to 18-11 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the struggling Nets. Miami is projected to score 101.5 points tonight, which is 4.6 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Nets have really struggled defensively this season. While they are an above-average rebounding team, they are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Tyler Johnson and Hassan Whiteside are both game-time decisions tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chris Bosh

If Hassan Whiteside is unable to suit up tonight, bump Bosh up to an elite play. He has been in great form over his last five games, averaging 36.1 fantasy points in 34.1 minutes per contest. If Whiteside is out, Bosh would likely slide over and start at center. On the season, the Nets are ranked 27th against centers.

FD — $7,400 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 36.1

Goran Dragic

I may have used Dragic once or twice this season. I always have a hard time using him, because he is listed as a point guard (which is a stacked position) and he plays on such a slow-paced offense. He is worth a look tonight though, as the Nets are ranked 28th against point guards.

FD — $6,000 — PG
DK — $5,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.0 | Last Five Games: 17.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 27.3

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious