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NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 5th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2016-12-06 03:57:35

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Philadelphia 76ers
denvernba Vegas Total 209.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 106.8 Team Total 102.8
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- 2.6
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Will Barton Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Jusuf Nurkic Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Gerald Henderson Nik Stauskas Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 23 14 29 14 20 2016-17 29 30 8 14 7

Denver Nuggets

Hello and welcome to this giant eleven-game slate for Monday. The Denver Nuggets travel to Philadelphia after losing in Utah on Saturday night. The Nuggets are on a three-game losing streak and will try to rectify their situation against the Sixers. Will Barton has returned in a big way, playing over 33 minutes in back-to-back games and is still priced for upside. He’ll likely be chased a fair amount after two good games playing a team that is 25th in fantasy points allowed per game and 14th in DvP against SGs. Obviously, we want to worry about ownership and game theory but I believe on a slate with this many games, the ownership should be fairly spread around and we should focus on making the best picks possible and use ownership as a tiebreaker in tournaments. Barton leads the team with a 29.4% usage rate over the last week and is a solid option in all formats.

With Nikola Jokic already ruled out for this game, due to a wrist injury, Nurkic should be able to make an impact. Still, he’s been bad and underperformed salary-based expectations for six straight games. Nurkic has a 27.2% usage rate over the last week, which factors in Barton’s return and Jokic’s absence. That’s pretty solid and he should be able to turn it around soon. Just not sure I can waste a center spot on him on FanDuel with so many elite options but he could be viable as a punt option utility spot on DraftKings. Wilson Chandler played 41 minutes against the Jazz and scored 34.5 FDFP. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points in back-to-back games and I’d look at Chandler as a solid cash game option that has proven the ability to score 50+ fantasy points.

Kenneth Faried played 29 minutes against the Jazz and had his first poor game in his last five. That should be excused against the Jazz and we should look at Faried as a strong tournament option coming off a poor game. The minutes seem to be there in Mike Malone’s random rotation and he’ll get a much easier matchup tonight. The Sixers have been roasted most of this season with PGs but Mudiay does not have a reliable jumper. With so many good options at PG today, Mudiay is only a GPP option that could really hurt your lineups. Danilo Gallinari also continues to get minutes but has underperformed salary-based expectations in every game since his return from a thigh injury. Another player that’s viable for GPPs not cash. Jameer is from the Philly area and played slightly over 27 minutes against the Jazz. He’s likely the best punt option but is not cash game safe off the bench.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Emmanuel Mudiay $5,600 $5,400 $9,100 0.82 31.2 -2.4 25.5 -3.1 26.1% -3.9% 23
Will Barton $5,200 $5,100 $8,300 0.79 29.4 4.2 23.2 10.2 21.9% 4.4% 14
Danilo Gallinari $5,800 $5,500 $10,900 0.71 36.0 -0.7 25.7 -1.0 18.9% 0.3% 29
Kenneth Faried $5,700 $5,100 $8,200 1.05 24.1 2.2 25.2 -0.4 17.3% 3.7% 14
Jusuf Nurkic $4,300 $4,100 $9,200 1.02 21.5 -4.5 21.8 -6.7 23.0% 0.4% 20
Wilson Chandler $6,400 $6,600 $10,200 0.97 31.2 1.7 30.2 -0.2 24.5% -1.0% 29

Elite Plays – Will Barton, Jameer Nelson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Jusuf Nurkic

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers continue their homestand tonight and hope to have Joel Embiid back after resting him against Boston. Embiid has scored 40+ fantasy points in back-to-back games and has an increased minutes limit of 28 against the Nuggets tonight. He should be able to crush in 28 minutes and is a strong cash game option with tournament upside. Jahlil Okafor will be used as his backup, if he is available tonight and is also a viable option on FanDuel since he’s still cheap over there. He’s not that expensive on DraftKings but has only exceeded value when Embiid in the lineup when grabbing over 10 rebounds. Since the Nuggets are 1st in rebounding differential, Okafor might not get that many tonight. Dario Saric and Ersan Ilyasova both had solid games against the Celtics but on a large slate both players are simply tournament options due to the expected return of Joel Embiid. Still, keep them on the radar with Okafor questionable tonight.

Sergio Rodriguez gets a 29th based DvP matchup and is an elite option at home coming off his one of his best games of the season. He likely won’t score a season-high 15 points with Embiid back but he’s a lock for minutes since Bayless is out of the lineup again. Gerald Henderson gets the 30th ranked DvP matchup and played 32 minutes against the Celtics on Saturday. As I’ve mentioned before and the numbers back it up, Henderson gets minutes in close games and this one is expected to be close. He’s $200 over the minimum on FanDuel and $500 over the minimum on DraftKings, making for a solid salary saving tournament option. Nik Stauskas started in place of Robert Covington and played 33 minutes against the Celtics. If Covington is out again, Sauce should also be a viable tournament option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Sergio Rodriguez $4,600 $5,000 $8,000 0.82 27.2 1.0 22.2 4.4 23.4% 2.0% 29
Gerald Henderson $3,700 $3,500 $8,500 0.65 24.8 -1.4 16.2 -4.8 17.7% -2.1% 30
Nik Stauskas $3,700 $3,900 $6,000 0.61 25.7 3.5 15.6 -3.3 16.8% -0.3% 8
Ersan Ilyasova $4,600 $4,700 $7,600 0.83 24.9 -1.5 20.6 -0.1 20.2% 2.8% 14
Joel Embiid $6,400 $6,900 $9,800 1.40 23.1 3.8 32.3 10.7 36.1% 0.3% 7

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid, Sergio Rodriguez

Secondary Plays – Gerald Henderson

Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards Brooklyn Nets
washingtonnba Vegas Total 219.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 219.5
Vegas Spread -5.5 Vegas Spread 5.5
Team Total 112.5 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- 5.0 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Sean Kilpatrick Bojan Bogdanovic Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 30 29 27 28 29 2016-17 8 13 15 23 13

Washington Wizards

The Wizards get the friendliest fantasy matchup against the Nets, a team that is THE team to target since they allow the most points and fantasy points per game and are also the worst rebounding team. The Wizards have a the second-highest implied team total and get a massive pace-up game tonight. This is a great spot for John Wall to shine, but really it’s a great spot for the entire team to bounce back after two consecutive tough losses. Wall should be a lock for 36-38 minutes and is a solid cash game option that has 50 fantasy points upside. He’s priced to the point where that’s almost mandatory for us to be happy tonight on FanDuel. He’s still under $9k on DraftKings and has proven he can get a triple-double and has a double-double in five of his last six games. He also proved against the Kings that he can get a cripple-double (10+ turnovers) making him a slight higher risk on FanDuel.

Bradley Beal underperformed salary-based expectations against the Spurs but that should have almost been expected. Still, Beal has scored 42 or more fantasy points in five of his last seven starts and is a solid tournament option. I’d hesitate to put him in cash games because his salary really hurts your flexibility and he has not proven that he can get 50+ fantasy points. He’s still an elite option that trails John Wall by 0.2% in usage rate over the last two weeks. Basically, he’s the number 1B option to Wall’s 1A. Otto Porter continues to play well and he’ll need 10+ rebounds to really make an impact tonight due to his slightly inflated salary after a huge game. Marcin Gortat had his best game of the season against the Spurs and is an elite option against Brook Lopez and the Nets center options. Markieff Morris looks like he’s healthy enough to play heavy minutes but is simply a GPP option since his play has been erratic after his ankle injury.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
John Wall $9,300 $8,900 $13,100 1.21 35.5 5.6 42.8 1.4 35.1% -3.7% 30
Bradley Beal $6,900 $7,000 $11,000 0.89 34.5 3.0 30.9 3.2 26.1% 1.1% 29
Otto Porter $6,300 $6,600 $9,600 0.89 34.7 0.6 30.9 0.8 16.1% -2.9% 27
Markieff Morris $4,700 $5,000 $9,100 0.75 31.6 8.1 23.6 -1.1 20.6% -0.9% 28
Marcin Gortat $6,400 $5,900 $9,700 0.86 35.3 2.8 30.5 5.1 13.9% 1.6% 29

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter, Markieff Morris

Brooklyn Nets

Trevor Booker missed the Nets previous game due to an illness but will play tonight for tonight. Booker is a viable option against the Wizards that has proven he’s a solid cash game play this season. He’s only had two really bad games in his last ten. Sean Kilpatrick leads the Nets with a usage rate of 31.2% over the last two weeks and is the best option to attack Washington with. Kilpatrick’s minutes have taken a slight dip with the return of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson but he’s proven that he can light it up and has scored in double figured in each of his last five starts and for six consecutive games. 50+ fantasy points might be out of reach but he’s a solid option that can score over 30+ in this expected high-scoring affair. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson played well against the Bucks but is only a tournament option that needs over 24 minutes to really make an impact.

Bojan Bogdanovic made the most of Booker’s absence playing 32 minutes, at times at PF and is a scoring dependent punt option. If his shot is on, he’ll exceed value, if his shot is off, he’ll be a dud. Joe Harris has played well for three straight games and $3.9k on FD and $3.5k on DK. Another utility spot option that is not to be built around. Randy Foye was playing well before his dud against the Bucks and should play about 20 minutes against his former team. He’s min salaried on both major sites. Brook Lopez is also a viable tournament option but on a slate with so many games, I’ll pass on the Nets big man. Still, he should be considered a viable option because he leads the team with a true usage rate of 28.4%.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Isaiah Whitehead $3,700 $3,600 $6,000 0.59 22.3 11.2 13.1 0.3 18.2% -4.8% 8
Sean Kilpatrick $5,600 $5,900 $8,600 0.91 27.2 8.2 24.6 8.8 27.8% 3.4% 13
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,300 $4,300 $7,900 0.74 27.7 0.7 20.4 2.0 21.1% 4.8% 15
Trevor Booker $5,800 $5,800 $7,900 1.01 27.6 6.8 27.8 4.4 16.8% -0.1% 23
Brook Lopez $7,200 $6,400 $10,900 1.12 28.0 5.3 31.3 4.1 28.4% -3.4% 13

Elite Plays -Sean Kilpatrick

Secondary Plays – Joe Harris, Randy Foye

Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Atlanta Hawks
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 207.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 101.3 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- 2.5 Pace +/- 2.6
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Mike Muscala Dwight Howard
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 27 24 22 8 2 2016-17 28 3 16 12 3

Oklahoma City Thunder

Russell Beastbrook had his fifth consecutive triple-double last night, the first player to do that since Michael Jordan in the 88-89 season. He should be in line to dominate the slumping Hawks who rank 27th in DvP against the position. I’m not sure how we can fade him in cash games on a full slate with so many viable punt options available. He’s still really expensive but actually saw his salary dip $200 on DraftKings. The last time he got under 61 fantasy points on DraftKings, was against the Rockets, in a game where he scored 54.3 DKFP. The floor to salary combination is too good to pass up and the only thing that can keep him from crushing it tonight is if his minutes are limited on the second night of a back-to-back. The Hawks have been playing really poorly and if they don’t show up again and get blown out, Westbrook will be rested. Still, Vegas does not expect a blowout but that’s the only scenario in which I could see Westbrook scoring under 55 fantasy points.

Steven Adams was not able to finish last night’s game and is uncertain to play tonight. Enes Kanter made the most of his opportunity and should get another shot at 30 minutes. I don’t expect Kanter to start against Dwight Howard and we should see Joffrey Lauvergne starting if Adams can’t go. King Joffrey is the minimum on FanDuel and is $100 over it on DraftKings. He has a shot at playing 20-24 minutes but is not a viable cash game option. Andre Roberson continues to play well and saw 37 minutes against the Pelicans last night. He’ll continue to be a solid cash game option with some tournament upside since his salary did not bump.

Victor Oladipo is simply a tournament option in a really nice bounce back spot against the Hawks. He’s a little bit more expensive than I would like but in a 24th ranked DvP matchup coming off a game where he played 35 minutes, he’s a solid tournament play. Semaj Christon made a case for more playing time after back-to-back good showings, but he’s not a viable candidate unless we can get that he is a lock for nearly 20 minutes. He’s on the radar and the Thunder have said that they will look to get Christon more playing time. This might also be a spot for Jerami Grant if Adams can’t go. He’s not a lock for minutes and has not scored over 20 fantasy points in 10 straight games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Russell Westbrook $12,600 $12,600 $16,300 1.63 35.8 2.5 58.3 5.4 45.1% 1.3% 27
Victor Oladipo $6,400 $6,700 $10,400 0.79 35.1 1.9 27.8 3.3 21.1% -1.8% 24
Andre Roberson $4,000 $4,400 $7,000 0.61 30.6 3.8 18.6 5.1 10.6% -0.5% 22
Domantas Sabonis $3,600 $3,200 $7,800 0.62 21.8 -2.1 13.5 -0.4 14.3% -0.8% 8
Steven Adams $4,700 $4,900 $8,700 0.76 30.3 -7.6 22.9 -4.6 14.7% 1.9% 2
Enes Kanter $4,900 $4,500 $8,800 1.15 19.5 4.8 22.5 10.1 24.6% 1.9% 8

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Andre Roberson

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter, (elite if Adams is out). Joffrey Lauvergne (if Adams is out), Victor Oladipo

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have been playing really poorly without Paul Millsap and are listing him as a game-time decision for tonight. The Hawks have lost six straight games and nine of their last ten games. This is a slumping team that really need a good game to get back on track. Dwight Howard had a solid game against the Raptors and will need to be the focal point of the offense if the Hawks want to keep this game competitive. Howard has an 18.4% usage rate with Millsap off the court over the last week and 20.3% true usage rate for the season. This shows us that he’s a tournament option only that can really hurt our lineups due to his expensive salary.

Dennis Schroder leads the team with a 33.3% usage rate over the last week and has a true usage rate of 29.4% this season. He continues to play well and it’s common knowledge that we target PGs against the Thunder. He’s in a nice spot but not as cheap as we would like. I would not build around him but if I’m looking for a second guard in his range, he might be worth the trouble if Millsap is out again. Even though this is a pace-up game for the Hawks, yet they still only have the 11th highest implied team total.

I still have not been able to Bazemore and will continue to Bazeless against the tough defense of Andre Roberson. Tim Hardaway Jr. has a usage rate of 28.6% over the last week that Millsap has missed, he is pretty cheap on both major sites and has multi-position eligibility on DraftKings. THJ has seen over 20 minutes for three consecutive games and could start taking over the SG position from veteran Kyle Korver. His offense will be needed if the Hawks want to stay in this game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Dennis Schroder $6,000 $6,100 $10,400 0.91 29.4 -0.9 26.9 8.8 29.4% 4.9% 28
Kyle Korver $3,500 $3,400 $7,300 0.55 27.6 -2.6 15.2 -5.8 14.2% -2.3% 3
Kent Bazemore $4,800 $5,100 $8,900 0.79 27.4 0.7 21.6 -1.4 21.7% 2.5% 16
Mike Muscala $3,700 $4,200 $7,200 0.79 22.0 3.7 17.4 -3.7 15.7% -1.6% 12
Dwight Howard $7,600 $7,100 $12,500 1.16 28.9 0.0 33.4 -8.4 20.3% -3.4% 3

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Tim Hardaway Jr. (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Toronto Raptors
clevelandnba Vegas Total 217.0 torontonba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 107.8 Team Total 109.3
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- 1.1
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 16 1 12 13 11 2016-17 24 27 22 5 18

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Toronto having lost their last three games. LeBron James played a season-high 45 minutes against the Bulls on Friday and we should see a heavy dose of the King as he’ll take charge to correct their losing ways. Even though he played 45 minutes, he was not able to greatly exceed value and will need close to a triple-double or 30 actual points to get there. After seeing Westbrook’s five consecutive triple-doubles, I’d expect LeBron to come out here and remind everyone why he’s still one of the greatest players on the planet. James has a true usage rate of 32.6% on the season and a usage rate of 35.2% over the last week.

Kevin Love played 32 minutes against the Bulls but was not able to get out of his slump. I like targeting PFs against Toronto and with Kyrie Irving facing Kyle Lowry for most of the night, expect that Love will be the 2nd option on the team tonight. Love has a usage rate of 27.1% over the last week and even though he has been slumping, he still has a team-best 1.33 FP/Min. Kyrie Irving played 38 second against the Bulls and had 38.8 DKFP against the Raptors a couple weeks ago in 35 minutes. Expect Irving to play heavy minutes again tonight and he’s a solid tournament option coming off a strong game in Chicago. Irving is second on the team with a true usage rate of 30.8% and has a usage rate of 31.5% over the last week.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyrie Irving $7,400 $7,300 $12,000 1.02 34.0 0.4 34.6 -3.2 30.8% 0.2% 16
J.R. Smith $3,600 $3,800 $8,000 0.53 30.6 -1.8 16.2 -4.0 13.6% -2.6% 1
LeBron James $9,400 $9,700 $14,800 1.25 36.3 0.8 45.4 -12.5 32.6% -0.2% 12
Kevin Love $7,800 $7,900 $12,400 1.15 31.8 0.6 36.5 -9.8 25.7% -5.6% 13
Tristan Thompson $4,800 $4,800 $7,500 0.79 29.0 1.6 23.0 -3.3 9.0% 1.0% 11

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving

Secondary Plays – N/A

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors continue their homestand tonight against the Cavs and will look to win their seventh game in a row. DeMar Derozan has come back down to earth after his scorching start and his salary might be playable again on DraftKings. He’s only $7.8k and has not been this low in a month. He’s has the 27th ranked DvP matchup and will likely see space cadet J.R. Smith for a majority of the time. This might be a good spot to buy low on the Raptors stud. He still leads the team with a true usage rate of 34.6% and even though he’s been slumping he still leads the team with a 33% usage rate over the last two weeks. Even though his fantasy production has waned, he’s still putting in work.

Kyle Lowry lit up Cleveland for 45.5 DKFP in their last game and is also a strong option tonight. He’s now more expensive than DeRozan on DraftKings but is still cheaper than him on FanDuel. DeMarre Carroll will likely play heavy minutes tonight having to guard LeBron James and is a strong punt option. Jonas Valanciunas only played 21 minutes on Saturday and does not seem to be over his ankle injury. They should just rest him instead of wasting him for 20 minutes but they keep winning so it’ll likely continue tonight.

Lucas Nogueira has taken advantage of Valanciunas’ limited minutes and is averaging 22.32 DKFP in his last four games and scored 32.5 fantasy points against the Hawks. It was a blowout, so keep your expectations in check if you feel like rostering him. He got 3 fouls in less than a minute against the Cavs the last time he played them and is too risky for cash games and is best served as a last in utility option, not someone to build around at C. Cory Joseph continues to be effective and while he likely does not have much upside in this game, he’s also a viable option at the util spot on DraftKings. Patrick Patterson, Terrence Ross, and Norman Powell have also been playing well but how many Raptors can we use on an eleven-game slate?

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyle Lowry $8,400 $8,200 $12,100 1.04 37.2 -4.2 38.6 2.4 26.9% -2.0% 24
DeMar DeRozan $8,600 $7,800 $13,000 1.14 35.7 -3.8 40.8 -7.4 34.6% -4.5% 27
DeMarre Carroll $4,300 $4,500 $8,500 0.74 25.7 1.4 19.0 0.8 15.3% 2.9% 22
Pascal Siakam $3,700 $3,000 $7,200 0.68 19.7 3.5 13.4 3.8 13.0% 1.6% 5
Jonas Valanciunas $5,300 $5,200 $10,300 0.91 28.2 -5.5 25.7 -12.5 18.5% -4.7% 18
Patrick Patterson $4,400 $4,200 $7,600 0.68 28.8 -3.8 19.7 3.9 12.3% 2.4% 5

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan

Secondary Plays – DeMarre Carroll, Lucas Nogueira, Cory Joseph

Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Houston Rockets
bostonnba Vegas Total 217.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 106.3 Team Total 110.8
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- -0.5
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 7 20 25 18 21 2016-17 8 7 29 20 29

Boston Celtics

Avery Bradley has put together two strong games in row and will look to keep it going against the Rockets tonight. He has 9 rebounds in back-to-back games and will likely be defended by James Harden for most of the night. He’s an elite cash game option with viable tournament upside. He’s scored over 50 fantasy points once this season and has put up games over 40 fantasy points multiple times. Since Horford return, Bradley has a usage rate of 24.6% which is a line with his season average. Al Hoford looks to be a lock for 32-35 minutes and is also a season-high $7.5k on FanDuel. He’s still only $6.7k on DraftKings and looks to be a slightly better play over there. He’s still an elite option on both major sites and even though it was with the Hawks last season, he’s proven that he thrives against the Rockets.

Jae Crowder has been in a slight funk over the past two games but will look to correct that against the Rockets and their 25th ranked DvP against SFs. Since he has been in a slump he might be too risky for cash games but is a solid tournament option in a game where the Celtics are expected to score over their season average. Isaiah Thomas torched the Sixers on Saturday for a season-high 37 points and is also now a season-high $8.4k on FanDuel. He’s also at a season-high $8.1k on DraftKings and averaged 39.15 DKFP against the Rockets last season. Thomas is only averaging 32.3 DKFP in 12 games against the Rockets in his career.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Isaiah Thomas $8,400 $8,100 $11,700 1.17 33.3 0.3 39.0 1.0 35.2% -0.3% 7
Avery Bradley $6,600 $6,300 $10,900 0.90 35.7 -1.5 32.3 -2.9 22.2% -2.9% 20
Jae Crowder $5,200 $5,800 $8,900 0.84 29.1 6.3 24.4 0.5 18.1% -1.6% 25
Amir Johnson $3,500 $3,300 $7,700 0.79 20.3 -5.3 16.0 1.9 14.6% 2.1% 18
Al Horford $7,500 $6,700 $11,000 1.07 32.5 1.2 34.9 -1.3 20.6% -1.7% 21
Marcus Smart $4,700 $4,800 $8,100 0.71 30.7 -4.4 21.9 -7.7 19.7% -1.0% 20

Elite Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder

Secondary Plays – Al Horford

Houston Rockets

James Harden only played 33 minutes in a blowout victory of the Nuggets on Friday night. He’ll look to get back on track tonight against the Celtics. The Celtics have been giving up a bunch of fantasy points this season and ranked 23rd out of 30 teams. Even though its a new offense that Harden is in, he’s proven that he struggles against the Celtics. Harden only averaged 32.55 DKFP against the Celtics last year. In eight games as a member of the Rockets, Harden is only averaging 37 DKFP. His salary is really inflated but the Rockets still have the 4th highest implied team total. We can’t totally write Harden off because he’s one of the best players in the league, but this shows that he’s too risky for cash today.

Trevor Ariza is dealing with a back issue and is considered day-to-day and did not practice on Sunday. We should have another update regarding his status after shootaround today. Nene was rested over the last two games and he’s listed as questionable but could play tonight. Clint Capela got back to his cash game ways with Nene out of the lineup and has tournament upside tonight if Nene misses again. Patrick Beverley had a solid outing against the Nuggets but it’s expected that PGs play well against the Nuggets. He still has not played over 30 minutes in three consecutive games. Eric Gordon has averaged 34.02 DKFP over his last four games off the bench and will needed tonight if James Harden struggles. Ryan Anderson put together back-to-back games of over 31 fps and should be able to keep it going tonight. If Ariza is limited or out, Ryan Anderson could see a slight bump in usage rate. Sam Dekker continues to be a stud and could start in place of Trevor Ariza if he is ruled out. He’s a solid cash game option tonight that should continue to see 26+ minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Patrick Beverley $4,500 $4,600 $7,800 0.75 28.3 -1.9 21.2 1.1 14.6% 1.4% 8
James Harden $11,400 $11,800 $15,900 1.42 37.2 0.9 52.9 -3.9 38.8% -1.5% 7
Trevor Ariza $5,500 $5,600 $8,600 0.76 33.6 0.0 25.7 -1.2 15.0% -0.6% 29
Ryan Anderson $4,800 $4,800 $9,000 0.70 31.1 -1.0 21.7 3.7 17.6% 1.5% 20
Clint Capela $5,700 $5,700 $8,700 1.02 26.3 0.1 26.8 -5.9 17.6% -2.2% 29
Eric Gordon $5,200 $5,300 $9,200 0.79 31.4 0.2 24.8 3.3 22.8% 4.1% 7

Elite Plays – Clint Capela, Sam Dekker

Secondary Plays – James Harden, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson

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About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.