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NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-15 03:09:22

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Indiana Pacers
orlandonba Vegas Total 207.0 indiananba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- 1.6 Pace +/- -3.4
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Jeff Green Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 18 23 20 18 25 2016-17 15 21 12 13 30

Orlando Magic

Happy Monday everyone. We kick off the week with an eight game slate tonight, starting with the Magic at the Pacers. Orlando wasn’t expected to be a playoff team heading into the season, but no one expected them to struggle this bad offensively. They are ranked 26th in pace of play and dead last in points scored per game (95.0). It’s a bit surprising that they already have four wins, as they have one of the worst point differentials in the NBA. Tonight they are listed as 7-point underdogs on the road against the Pacers. They have an implied total of 100 points. While that doesn’t seem like much, it is five points above their season average. Their matchup does stand out as a favorable one, as Indiana is a fast-paced team that is ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game.

Elfrid Payton and I continue to have an up and down relationship. Everyone dated that one girl a bit too long, even though you knew she wasn’t the one that you were going to take home to meet your mother. Payton is that girl for me. He isn’t having the breakout season that I predicted, but he is averaging over 30 fantasy points per game in his last three and his price is well under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He leads the Magic in true usage and should play 30+ minutes in a favorable matchup against the Pacers. Evan Fournier is the only Magic player to average at least 31 minutes per game and he’s sort of fallen off the fantasy radar for most. He draws a favorable matchup against the likes of Monta Ellis and C.J. Miles. Even though Jeff Green is starting, he is still splitting minutes with Aaron Gordon. Green has only topped 20 fantasy points one time all season and he feels like a reach in an eight game slate. Serge Ibaka is coming off of a career game against his former team (including a game-winner), but until we see an ounce of consistency from him, he will continue to be a GPP dart. Nikola Vucevic is an intriguing play on DraftKings at only $6,100. He’s a per-minute fantasy beast (1.10 FP/min), but he has also struggled with consistent effort night in and night out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Elfrid Payton $5,400 $5,600 $9,800 0.87 30.5 -1.4 26.6 4.1 24.6% 0.0% 18
Evan Fournier $5,700 $5,700 $9,600 0.73 34.1 0.3 25.0 1.7 24.0% -1.0% 23
Jeff Green $3,800 $3,800 $7,100 0.74 21.7 2.4 16.0 -2.1 20.4% -4.2% 20
Serge Ibaka $5,200 $5,300 $10,300 0.83 29.2 2.2 24.2 3.3 20.3% 1.5% 18
Nikola Vucevic $7,100 $6,100 $10,500 1.10 27.2 -1.9 30.0 -1.6 24.0% 2.9% 25
Aaron Gordon $5,600 $5,400 $9,200 0.82 28.4 -2.8 23.4 -5.4 19.8% -1.3% 20
Bismack Biyombo $4,200 $4,000 $7,800 0.72 22.7 3.1 16.4 0.0 12.5% -0.5% 25

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (FD)

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (DK), Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic (DK)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers feel like they should be a lot better than the Magic, yet both teams find themselves sitting at 4-6 after ten games. Indiana has struggled under new coach Nate McMillan, especially on the defensive end of the floor. The good news from a fantasy perspective is that they push the pace and score a lot of points, ranking tenth and sixth in each category, respectively. Indiana comes into tonight’s game as a 7-point favorite against the Magic. Even though Orlando will try to slow the pace of the game down, this is still a favorable matchup. Orlando is ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Pacers currently have the fourth highest implied total in the slate at 107 points.

The main injury to monitor here (and tonight in general) is Paul George. If he is unable to suit up, that would give a sizable boost to all five starters. As I talk about in my Guide to Beating NBA DFS, an injury to a superstar opens up production for everyone else on the team, not just his backup. George is responsible for such a large piece of their offensive pie that if he is forced to miss another game, everyone else is going to have to step up in his absence. Since we won’t know his status until later today, I am going to break down the potential plays based on both scenarios. If George is out, Monta Ellis, Jeff Teague, and C.J. Miles would all see a big enough boost in usage and/or minutes to be considered elite plays. Myles Turner and Thaddeus Young would also see usage boosts and would both be intriguing GPP options. If George is active, he becomes the best fantasy option while the rest of the starters would be secondary plays at best.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Jeff Teague $6,200 $6,400 $10,400 0.89 31.5 5.4 28.2 5.4 26.7% -1.3% 15
Monta Ellis $5,600 $5,500 $9,500 0.71 33.6 3.1 23.7 3.6 18.6% 3.4% 21
Paul George $8,600 $7,900 $13,200 1.04 34.6 1.5 36.0 7.9 26.6% 3.2% 12
Thaddeus Young $5,400 $5,400 $9,900 0.80 28.7 2.3 22.8 0.9 15.1% -1.1% 13
Myles Turner $6,600 $6,800 $11,000 1.13 27.3 0.3 30.9 -2.0 20.3% -3.6% 30
C.J. Miles $4,400 $5,500 $7,900 0.92 24.1 7.4 22.3 -2.2 20.1% -6.0% 12

Elite Plays – TBD (see above)

Secondary Plays – TBD (see above)

Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks New York Knicks
dallasnba Vegas Total 204.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 100.3 Team Total 103.8
Pace +/- 0.9 Pace +/- -3.7
Proj. Starter J.J. Barea Wesley Matthews Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Andrew Bogut Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 14 30 25 13 12 2016-17 7 18 2 1 15

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have been a staple in the Western Conference playoff picture for over a decade, but they are a team that is aging before our very eyes. Assuming they could get healthy, there is a chance that they could compete for one of the last couple of playoff spots, but they are far from a contender at this point. They are 2-6 to start the season thanks to an inefficient offense. Dallas is currently ranked 27th in pace of play and 26th in points scored per game. Despite their struggles, they are only listed as 3.5-point underdogs against the Knicks tonight in Madison Square Garden. New York has been one of the best teams to pick on this season and the Mavericks’ implied total is considerably higher (3.2 points) than their season average.

Rick Carlisle said that he couldn’t completely rule out Deron Williams tonight, but he is fully expected to miss the game. As long as that’s the case, it will continue to be the J.J. Barea show. He has been a tremendous value play in the early part of the season, averaging 29.8 fantasy points in 33.8 minutes per game. He leads the Mavericks in true usage at 27.2% and is still too cheap on both FanDuel and Rosters. You can make the argument to fade him on DraftKings, although he’s still a secondary option at $6,800. Wesley Matthews is among the league leaders in minutes per game. While he doesn’t provide a whole lot in terms of peripheral stats, I’m not going to talk you out of a three-point shooter that is expected to see minutes in the upper-30s. Harrison Barnes is averaging 40 fantasy points in his last three games. Even though his price has come up, he will be a strong play if Dirk Nowitzki (questionable) is ruled out again. Seth Curry has been a nice spark plug off the bench, averaging 28 fantasy points in his last three games. If you expect him to continue seeing 30+ minutes a night, he should be treated as an elite value play at his price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
J.J. Barea $5,800 $6,800 $8,400 0.88 33.8 6.4 29.8 4.3 27.2% -0.4% 14
Wesley Matthews $4,700 $5,100 $8,300 0.58 37.7 3.2 22.0 -0.5 20.3% -2.5% 30
Dorian Finney-Smith $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.41 12.9 15.8 5.3 6.9 9.1% 0.2% 25
Harrison Barnes $6,000 $7,100 $9,800 0.83 38.1 2.5 31.5 9.0 23.6% 4.5% 13
Andrew Bogut $4,400 $4,600 $7,800 0.75 25.9 6 19.4 0.8 14.1% -1.9% 12
Seth Curry $4,200 $4,100 $7,500 0.74 24 6.4 17.7 10.2 19.3% 5.8% 30
Dwight Powell $4,100 $4,300 $8,400 0.92 18.9 2.2 17.4 2.1 14.0% 1.2% 13

Elite Plays – J.J. Barea (FD), Harrison Barnes (FD), Seth Curry (GPP)

Secondary Plays – J.J. Barea (DK), Harrison Barnes (DK), Wesley Matthews, Seth Curry (Cash)

New York Knicks

The Knicks are a team that many expected to struggle and so far they haven’t proven their critics wrong. They are 3-6 to start the season and they have been on the wrong end of too many blowouts. Their offense hasn’t been terrible, but so far they have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Tonight’s matchup against the Mavericks is actually a fairly difficult one on paper. Dallas is ranked 26th in pace of play and tenth in fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas still likes the Knicks in this spot though, likely because they are playing at home. They have an implied total of 103.8 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and 1.8 points above their season average.

After Derrick Rose went on a nice five-game run a couple of weeks ago, he came crashing back down to Earth. In his last three games, he is only averaging 22 fantasy points and he is losing a lot of minutes to backup point guard, Brandon Jennings. In an eight game slate, we don’t need to try to predict the Knicks’ point guard rotation, we can just avoid both players and move on. Courtney Lee is averaging over 30 minutes per game, but he doesn’t provide much upside. I’d much rather take a shot on Seth Curry, who has a ceiling over 30 fantasy points. If you take out the game in which he got tossed, Carmelo Anthony has been playing some solid basketball recently. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in each of his last four full games. He is an elite play tonight at small forward against the Mavericks. Kristaps Porzingis has the upside that we are looking for in tournaments, but he doesn’t have the floor that we are looking for in cash games. Joakim Noah is an interesting punt at center; his minutes and fantasy production are slowly trending upward.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Derrick Rose $6,000 $5,800 $9,600 0.86 31.7 -2.6 27.3 -4.9 28.0% 2.6% 7
Courtney Lee $3,700 $3,700 $7,100 0.53 30.4 -1.5 16.2 -3.0 14.2% -0.3% 18
Carmelo Anthony $7,800 $7,500 $13,400 1.04 31.9 -3.8 33.3 -1.6 29.1% 0.4% 2
Kristaps Porzingis $6,800 $6,900 $11,100 0.99 30.8 -2.8 30.6 0.2 22.5% 5.2% 1
Joakim Noah $4,700 $4,600 $8,400 0.94 24.6 0.8 23.2 1.8 13.6% 0.5% 15

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis, Joakim Noah

Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Detroit Pistons
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 202.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 99.5 Team Total 102.5
Pace +/- -2.1 Pace +/- 2.9
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Aron Baynes
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 19 13 8 10 23 2016-17 24 5 19 18 1

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are coming off of a tough loss last night against the Magic. Most people probably didn’t watch this game due to it being an NFL Sunday, but you should quickly check out the box score because it was a doozy. After a 6-1 start, the Thunder have lost three games in a row and would love to snap their losing streak tonight. The biggest issue with this game is that both teams are ranked inside the top six in defensive efficiency this season. Oklahoma City is listed as a 3-point underdog against the Pistons in a game that features a low over/under of 202 points. This will be a pace-down game for the Thunder, as evidenced by their low implied total of 99.5 points.

The main reason why I said to check out last night’s box score was to see the line that Russell Westbrook put up. Not only did he have a triple-double, but he did it in grand fashion with 41 points, 12 rebounds, and 16 assists. He scored 77.6 FD fantasy points and he didn’t have a single block or steal. He leads the NBA in true usage and somehow his price is all the way down to $10,800 on DraftKings. Even in a difficult matchup against the Pistons, Westbrook is an elite play in all formats tonight. Victor Oladipo has been shooting the ball a little better lately, but there are better options at shooting guard. The only other play on my radar tonight is Steven Adams. Assuming he stays out of foul trouble, he should see minutes in the low to mid-30s even though this is the second half of a back-to-back.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Russell Westbrook $11,600 $10,800 $15,900 1.64 34.4 2.8 56.4 6.4 45.6% -1.4% 19
Victor Oladipo $5,400 $5,400 $10,400 0.66 34.0 1.0 22.5 0.8 20.5% -0.7% 13
Andre Roberson $3,800 $3,800 $7,000 0.64 28.9 0.9 18.6 3.4 11.4% 2.9% 8
Domantas Sabonis $4,000 $4,200 $8,400 0.70 21.2 3.3 14.8 -3.4 15.6% -1.5% 10
Steven Adams $5,100 $5,300 $8,800 0.79 32.0 2.1 25.2 0.1 14.5% -1.7% 23
Enes Kanter $5,000 $4,800 $9,300 1.14 19.0 2.1 21.6 -1.1 25.0% -4.2% 10

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are ranked 24th in points scored per game, yet they are 5-5 to start the season. Luckily, their defense has bailed them out, ranking fourth in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. Their matchup against the Thunder doesn’t look great on paper, but this is actually a good spot for the Pistons’ offense. The Thunder played late last night and gave up 119 points to the Magic in regulation. This is a pace-up game for Detroit and we can make a case to play all five starters, as strange as that sounds. The Pistons have an implied total of 102.5 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate and 4.8 points above their season average.

The best way to attack the Thunder this season has been with opposing point guards. They are currently ranked 24th in DvP against the position, largely because Russell Westbrook has to carry so much of the load on the other end of the floor. Ish Smith hasn’t had any monster outings this season, but he is averaging close to 30 minutes per game and he has scored at least 25 fantasy points in four of his last seven. I’m a fan of the matchup and I’m not worried about foul trouble, as I expect Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to slide over and defend Westbrook. KCP is an intriguing punt on FanDuel where we have to roster two shooting guards. Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris should both see minutes in the low to mid-30s in an uptempo game. Jon Leuer is also a sneaky tournament play off the bench, as he is averaging 26.6 minutes per game this seaso. Andre Drummond is expected to miss tonight’s game with a ankle injury, which came out of nowhere. Aron Baynes makes a decent punt at center, while the rest of the starters (and Leuer) should see an uptick in usage.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Ish Smith $5,300 $5,100 $8,800 0.79 29.7 0.8 23.4 3.5 25.7% -0.9% 24
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,700 $5,000 $8,400 0.66 33.5 5.3 22.0 5.2 17.7% 1.8% 5
Marcus Morris $5,600 $5,200 $8,600 0.79 31.8 3.1 25.2 -2.9 21.2% -3.5% 19
Tobias Harris $5,800 $5,900 $9,300 0.77 33.0 0.2 25.5 -1.6 22.5% -0.1% 18
Aron Baynes $3,500 $3,000 $6,600 0.70 15.1 1.1 10.6 -3.5 13.9% -6.2% 1
Jon Leuer $4,400 $4,700 $7,100 0.80 26.6 -0.5 21.3 -0.1 16.1% 1.1% 18

Elite Plays – Ish Smith, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris

Secondary Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Aron Baynes, Jon Leuer

Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics New Orleans Pelicans
bostonnba Vegas Total 213.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 108.8 Team Total 104.3
Pace +/- 1.7 Pace +/- 0.8
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Marcus Smart Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Tim Frazier E’Twaun Moore Solomon Hill Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 9 25 28 29 18 2016-17 12 21 30 23 27

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have been one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule this season. They play at an above-average pace, they are ranked eighth in points scored per game, and they have allowed the sixth most points per game. When they take the floor, we know there are going to be a lot of points scored. Tonight they head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Given the fact that the spread is set at only 4.5-points, this is my favorite game of the night. The Celtics have an implied total of 108.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate.

Isaiah Thomas injured his finger against the Pacers on Saturday night, but he said that he is going to play tonight. I’m not overly concerned about the injury, although it is on his shooting hand and it is his middle finger. I still view Thomas as an elite play on DraftKings, as he is averaging 38.6 fantasy points per game this season with a ridiculous true usage of 34.2%. Avery Bradley continues to be a great two-way player, averaging 35.2 fantasy points in 36.4 minutes per game. His price has adjusted to his production, but you have to like the matchup against the Pelicans. Marcus Smart is one of my favorite value plays in the slate. He is averaging 26.9 fantasy points in his last three and this is the type of game that he could end up with four or more blocks and steals combined. Kelly Olynyk has looked great in his two starts this season, but Al Horford may return to the lineup tonight. Olynyk will be an elite play if Horford is out, a borderline elite play if Horford in and he starts anyway, and a secondary play if he comes off the bench.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Isaiah Thomas $8,100 $7,800 $11,200 1.17 33.1 -2.2 38.6 -1.5 34.2% 0.9% 9
Avery Bradley $7,000 $7,000 $10,600 0.97 36.4 -1.0 35.2 -1.5 23.0% -0.7% 25
Marcus Smart $5,100 $5,400 $8,100 0.73 32.1 2.5 23.4 3.5 20.9% 1.1% 28
Amir Johnson $4,200 $4,500 $7,700 0.81 22.6 2.7 18.3 0.0 15.1% -1.0% 29
Al Horford $6,700 $6,100 $11,700 0.97 29.5 28.7 17.9% 18
Kelly Olynyk $4,000 $4,800 $6,800 0.83 28.0 0.0 23.1 0.0 20.6% 0.0% 18

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas (DK), Marcus Smart

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (FD), Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk (bump to an elite play if Al Horford is out)

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are a paltry 1-9 to start the season and there doesn’t seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel. While I expect them to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference this season, they will continue to be a great team to target and a great team to target players against. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the uptempo Celtics, who are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pelicans have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and 3.0 points above their season average.

It was funny seeing the reactions on Twitter when Anthony Davis hurt his back and headed to the locker room on Saturday night. Half the people were bitter and the other half “knew that he was going to get hurt, so they faded him in cash games.” Unfortunately, if you have been fading Davis in cash games all season, you probably haven’t fared very well. Davis returned to the game and ended up with a respectable outing of 49 fantasy points. He has now scored at least 47 fantasy points in five straight games. He a true usage over 30% and he should be able to dominate the glass and the paint against an undersized Celtics’ frontcourt. I’m always concerned about a potential injury with Davis, but a wise man once said, “scared money don’t make money.” Tim Frazier minutes have been all over the map this season, but he should benefit from an uptick in pace against the Celtics. While I’ll play roulette every now and then in Vegas, I don’t like playing it with the Pelicans’ wings. There are too many bodies splitting minutes that I just avoid them for cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Tim Frazier $5,500 $6,100 $9,600 0.94 29.9 1.6 28.2 -2.7 24.0% -1.7% 12
E’Twaun Moore $4,500 $4,400 $7,500 0.67 29.9 -0.1 20.1 0.1 19.5% 1.2% 21
Solomon Hill $3,700 $3,500 $7,700 0.59 26.0 -1.2 15.5 -1.0 12.5% 0.1% 30
Anthony Davis $11,500 $11,300 $15,900 1.44 37.6 0.0 54.1 -2.0 31.4% 1.7% 23
Omer Asik $3,500 $3,000 $7,400 0.67 18.6 0.8 12.5 1.1 10.0% 2.4% 27
Buddy Hield $4,000 $3,700 $7,600 0.73 21.2 0.1 15.6 2.8 24.9% 1.4% 21
Langston Galloway $3,700 $3,100 $6,500 0.77 18.9 -1.6 14.5 1.5 20.5% 4.3% 12
Dante Cunningham $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.56 21.4 -1.4 12.0 3.0 12.8% -0.2% 30

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Tim Frazier (FD)

Secondary Plays – Tim Frazier (DK)

Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Houston Rockets
philadelphianba Vegas Total 215.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 113.5
Pace +/- -0.1 Pace +/- 0.5
Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid Proj. Starter James Harden Trevor Ariza Corey Brewer Ryan Anderson Clint Capela
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 10 14 26 25 8 2016-17 25 15 29 16 19

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have only won a single game this season, but they have been a lot more intriguing than some of the other subpar NBA teams. They have struggled offensively so far, ranking 28th in points scored per game. The good news is that they draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and 17th in fantasy points allowed per game. The Sixers have an implied total of 102 points, which is the eighth highest in the slate and 5.6 points above their season average.

Joel Embiid is fun to watch. He is a talented big that can do everything on the floor well. He can shoot, pass, rebound, defend, and block shots. There are only a handful of players that can be included in that category and Embiid is still a 22-year old rookie. No one likes a minute restriction in DFS, but he hasn’t let that stop him so far. He is averaging 30.1 fantasy points per game and he has an elite true usage of 38.5%. The good news about the minute restriction is that he’ll likely play 24 minutes regardless of how the game plays out. He remains an elite play at center. Sergio Rodriguez has cooled off in his last three games and with all of the value at point guard, I will be looking elsewhere. Robert Covington stands out as an elite value on FanDuel. He should see 30+ minutes against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Dario Saric, Ersan Ilyasova, and Jahlil Okafor are all viable GPP targets.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Sergio Rodriguez $5,100 $5,300 $8,600 0.81 29.8 0.4 24.0 -3.7 23.4% -2.2% 10
Gerald Henderson $3,900 $3,500 $9,000 0.64 25.2 1.6 16.1 3.2 18.4% 2.5% 14
Robert Covington $4,800 $5,500 $9,500 0.70 29.6 3.4 20.7 6.8 15.3% 2.7% 26
Dario Saric $4,100 $4,900 $8,900 0.70 27.2 2.8 19.1 5.5 20.2% -0.6% 25
Joel Embiid $5,400 $6,300 $8,900 1.36 22.2 3.6 30.1 3.3 38.5% 8.5% 8
Jahlil Okafor $4,800 $5,200 $8,700 1.02 18.8 -2.0 19.1 -0.8 27.7% 2.3% 8
Ersan Ilyasova $3,900 $4,200 $8,000 0.78 23.2 -0.1 18.1 3.2 19.2% -0.3% 25

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid, Robert Covington (FD)

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington (DK)

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are 5-4 to start the season. Even though they are averaging 107 points per game, we have yet to see a true Mike D’Antoni offense. He typically wants his team to push the pace and get a shot up within the first ten seconds of the shot clock. I expect the Rockets to pick up the pace moving forward, but either way, they are a great team to target and a great team to target players against. The Rockets are listed as 11.5-point favorites tonight against the Sixers at home. Even though there is some concern about a blowout, their implied team total of 113.5 points is awfully intriguing.

James Harden should be listed as a point guard, but I’m just fine with using a shooting guard spot on him. We’ve seen what Mike D’Antoni’s offense can do for point guards in the past and it’s obviously working out pretty well for Harden, who is averaging 30 points, eight rebounds, and 13 assists per game. Targeting point guards against the Sixers has been easy money this season, as they are ranked 25th against the position. Harden is the top play on the board tonight even with Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook in good spots. Outside of Harden, we have a couple of intriguing GPP options. Ryan Anderson is a streaky shooter, but he should get plenty of open looks against the Sixers. Eric Gordon makes a lot of sense as well, especially if he is coming off of the bench. He should still play 30+ minutes and his ownership would be under 10%.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
James Harden $11,700 $12,000 $15,600 1.47 37.8 2.1 55.4 -2.5 39.1% 0.1% 25
Trevor Ariza $5,000 $5,100 $9,300 0.69 34.0 3.3 23.5 3.3 14.9% 0.1% 15
Corey Brewer $3,500 $3,100 $7,000 0.55 15.3 0.1 8.4 -2.7 14.2% -2.3% 29
Ryan Anderson $5,100 $5,600 $9,000 0.69 32.2 3.8 22.3 4.9 18.0% 0.7% 16
Clint Capela $4,600 $4,900 $8,700 0.96 23.1 0.2 22.2 2.8 18.7% 2.5% 19
Eric Gordon $5,300 $5,200 $9,200 0.76 32.3 0.3 24.6 0.7 21.5% -0.7% 15
Nene Hilario $3,500 $3,200 $8,200 0.68 20.6 1.2 14.1 -3.6 14.7% -4.6% 19

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious