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NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-04 00:01:01

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Cleveland at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM

Cleveland Philadelphia
clevelandnba Vegas Total 193.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 193.0
Vegas Sprd -13.0 Vegas Sprd 13.0
Team Proj. 103.0 Team Proj. 90.0
Team Pace 97.60 Team Pace 97.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mo Williams J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Isaiah Canaan Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 18 27 13 27 28 Opp. Season 9 13 5 4 11
Opp. Last 7 18 27 13 27 28 Opp. Last 7 9 13 5 4 11

Cleveland

The Cavaliers take their turn against the Sixers, who have lost their first two games by an average of 22.5 points. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 2-1 with a point differential of 12.7, which is the third best in the NBA thus far. Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert both remain out for the Cavaliers, which continues to solidify the minutes for Mo Williams and J.R. Smith.

In terms of the actual matchup, the Sixers are one of the most favorable teams to face in the NBA. They have played at a slow pace, but have allowed 105.5 points per game. They have also allowed the ninth most fantasy points per game. The issue here isn’t whether the Cavaliers will have success on the offensive end of the floor, it’s whether or not the Sixers will be able to keep this game close. The Cavaliers are 13-point favorites and as I mentioned above, the Sixers have been far from competitive so far this season.

With the potential of a blowout, I will be avoiding LeBron James tonight. The Cavaliers do not need to put any more stress on him early in the season and if this game goes as expected, he will likely only see three quarters of action. Kevin Love is a borderline elite play here. He has averaged 40 fantasy points per game this season with a high usage rate of 25.7 in this offense. Mo Williams and J.R. Smith are also in play as secondary options.

Elite Plays

Kevin Love

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 25.7
FP/Game: 40.0 — FP/Min: 1.25

Secondary Plays

Mo Williams

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,300
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 20.2
FP/Game: 21.9 — FP/Min: 0.76

J.R. Smith

FD: $5,400 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 16.8
FP/Game: 17.9 — FP/Min: 0.62

Philadelphia

We can’t be too surprised with the start that the Sixers have had this season. They have been missing some key pieces in Tony Wroten, Robert Covington, and Joel Embid. The Sixers are expecting to have Covington in their lineup tonight, but he will be on a minute restriction against the Cavaliers. I’d like to say otherwise, but I see this game going a lot like the Sixers’ first two games of the season.

Let’s make a pros and cons list for the Sixers tonight.

Pros: They are playing at home.

Cons: They are the Sixers. They are facing a Cavaliers’ defense that is ranked fifth or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. They are 13-point underdogs in what could be another blowout. And, they have an implied team total of 90.0 points, which is by far the lowest on the schedule tonight.

There have been good arguments made on both sides, but I think the cons slightly outweigh the pros. Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, and Isaiah Canaan are all decent contrarian plays, but they are not safe picks for cash games. The hope there is that they would see their typical allotment of minutes even if this game gets out of hand early.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

FD: $7,500 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 21.8
FP/Game: 32.3 — FP/Min: 0.92

Jahlil Okafor

FD: $5,700 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 25.5
FP/Game: 26.3 — FP/Min: 0.71

Isaiah Canaan

FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 22.1
FP/Game: 21.7 — FP/Min: 0.62

Milwaukee at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM

Milwaukee Brooklyn
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 196.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 196.5
Vegas Sprd Even Vegas Sprd Even
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 98.3
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 96.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Johnny O’Bryant Greg Monroe Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Wayne Ellington Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 22 20 22 8 13 Opp. Season 24 30 19 30 12
Opp. Last 7 22 20 22 8 13 Opp. Last 7 24 30 19 30 12

Milwaukee

The Bucks have not started their season the way that they were hoping, as they have lost all three of their games by an average margin of 16.3 points. The addition of Greg Monroe should help this team take that next step, but they have had a tough time defensively this season. They have allowed 115.3 points per game. That’s a far cry from where they were defensively last season. The Bucks will look to right the ship tonight in Brooklyn.

The Bucks draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency this season. The Nets have played at a slow pace, but their inability to defend more than makes up for it. The Bucks have an implied team total of 98.3 points in what is expected to be a close game.

Greg Monroe and Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the fantasy options for the Bucks tonight. Even though Milwaukee has gotten off to a slow start with their new addition, Monroe has fit in nicely offensively. In their first three games, he has averaged 40.0 fantasy points and he has a usage rate of 22.4. Antetokounmpo has a solid all-around game and if his usage rate (26.3) is any indication, he will be more involved offensively this season. Khris Middleton and Jerryd Bayless are both secondary options here. Bayless has been playing significant minutes off the bench.

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe

FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 22.4
FP/Game: 40.0 — FP/Min: 1.21

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 26.3
FP/Game: 38.3 — FP/Min: 1.16

Secondary Plays

Khris Middleton

FD: $5,900 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 20.2
FP/Game: 16.6 — FP/Min: 0.47

Jerryd Bayless

FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 16.2
FP/Game: 13.8 — FP/Min: 0.53

Brooklyn

The Nets are also 0-3 on the season and their average margin of loss is even worst than the Bucks at 17.3 points. The Nets don’t have any major injuries at the moment, they have just been playing bad basketball on both ends of the floor. Regardless of how this game shakes out, one of these teams has to walk away with a win, right?

Sure, we are only three games into the season, but one of the biggest surprises thus far has been the lack of defense from the Bucks. They are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. What makes those numbers even worse is the fact that the Bucks have had the ninth slowest pace. The Nets have an implied team total of 98.3 points and this is the first time this season that their players are on my radar.

Jarrett Jack missed the Nets’ season opener, but he has played well in their last two games, averaging 29.9 fantasy points with a high usage rate of 26.2. Now that Deron Williams is in Dallas, this is Jack’s team. He should fly under the radar tonight, but he is in play for both cash games and tournaments. Brook Lopez draws a decent matchup down low against Greg Monroe. Joe Johnson is off to a very slow start, but is worth a look on DraftKings at a price of only $4,900.

Elite Plays

Jarrett Jack

FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 26.2
FP/Game: 29.9 — FP/Min: 0.96

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 25.2
FP/Game: 29.7 — FP/Min: 0.96

Joe Johnson

FD: $6,200 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 16.8
FP/Game: 17.4 — FP/Min: 0.58

San Antonio at New York – 7:30 PM

San Antonio New York
sanantonionba Vegas Total 201.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 201.0
Vegas Sprd -8.0 Vegas Sprd 8.0
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 96.5
Team Pace 101.80 Team Pace 105.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 26 8 11 15 5 Opp. Season 28 1 12 1 15
Opp. Last 7 26 8 11 15 5 Opp. Last 7 28 1 12 1 15

San Antonio

Right when you think that the Spurs incredible run over the last 15 years is going to come to an end, they go out and acquire LaMarcus Aldridge. With Kawhi Leonard locked up, this team is going to be a threat in the West for years to come, even after Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili retire. Tonight the Spurs head to New York to take on the Knicks.

The Spurs draw one of the best matchups on the schedule tonight. The Knicks are ranked well below the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. They have also played at the fifth fastest pace, which only helps the matter. There is some concern of a potential blowout though, as the Spurs are 8-point favorites in this matchup.

If you can stomach targeting Spurs’ players in cash games, tonight would be a good night to do it. The Knicks have been more competitive than most would have expected and as long as this game stays within ten or so, the Spurs’ starters should see a full complement of minutes. Aldridge is a bit expensive on FanDuel, but he is sitting at a very playable $7,300 on DraftKings. He draws a nice matchup against the rookie Kristaps Porzingis. Kawhi Leonard is an elite play on both sites, as he is still a bit underpriced for the type of production that he brings to the table.

Elite Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

FD: $8,300 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 22.7
FP/Game: 33.7 — FP/Min: 1.05

Kawhi Leonard

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 31.6
FP/Game: 37.4 — FP/Min: 1.17

Secondary Plays

Manu Ginobili

FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 22.0 — Usage: 25.0
FP/Game: 26.5 — FP/Min: 1.20

Danny Green

FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 15.0
FP/Game: 17.7 — FP/Min: 0.63

Boris Diaw

FD: $4,100 — DK: $3,500
Min/Game: 21.0 — Usage: 15.5
FP/Game: 19.8 — FP/Min: 0.94

New York

The Knicks are 2-1 to start the season. If you are a Knicks’ fan, you have to be pleased with the way that they are playing. While they won’t contend for a championship anytime soon, they are a fun team to watch that should be able to compete for a playoff spot in the awfully soft Eastern Conference.

The Knicks draw one of the worst matchups on the board tonight. The Spurs are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Knicks have an implied team total of 96.5 points, which is the second lowest on the schedule. Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis, and Langston Galloway have all been playable early on this season, but I’m going to employ a complete Knicks fade tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Oklahoma City at Houston – 8:00 PM

Oklahoma City Houston
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 214.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Sprd -4.0 Vegas Sprd 4.0
Team Proj. 109.3 Team Proj. 105.3
Team Pace 102.90 Team Pace 100.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Ty Lawson James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 17 19 29 29 7 Opp. Season 5 22 30 20 20
Opp. Last 7 17 19 29 29 7 Opp. Last 7 5 22 30 20 20

Oklahoma City

The Thunder are 3-0 to start the season and boy have they been fun to watch. They have averaged 122.7 points per game, which allows enough production for both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to used in daily fantasy. Tonight they head to Houston to take on another great offensive team in the Rockets. This game should be a fantasy goldmine.

The Thunder draw a favorable matchup against the Rockets, although their defense isn’t as bad as the numbers above indicate. Dwight Howard completely changes their defense and he has only been in the lineup for one of their three games. Howard is expected to play tonight, but that doesn’t mean that the Thunder are in any less of a great spot. Oklahoma City has an implied team total of 109.3 points, which is the second highest total on the board tonight.

The biggest problem with using the Thunder players this season has been potential blowouts. That shouldn’t be an issue tonight, as the Thunder are only listed as 4-point favorites. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are both elite plays tonight against the Rockets. They have usage rates of 35.8 and 27.6, respectively, and they are both averaging well over 40 fantasy points per game. I typically don’t like to use 35-40% of my salary on two players from the same team, but they can be used together tonight in what should be a shootout.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $11,200 — DK: $10,300
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 35.8
FP/Game: 53.5 — FP/Min: 1.45

Kevin Durant

FD: $10,400 — DK: $9,700
Min/Game: 39.0 — Usage: 27.6
FP/Game: 42.5 — FP/Min: 1.09

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 18.0
FP/Game: 28.8 — FP/Min: 0.87

Steven Adams

FD: $4,400 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 9.3
FP/Game: 17.5 — FP/Min: 0.60

Houston

The Rockets had to play without Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, and Donatas Motiejunas last night against the Heat. Howard is fully expected to play tonight, but Jones is listed as a game-time decision and Motiejunas has yet to be cleared for practice.

The Rockets draw a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Thunder, who have allowed the third most fantasy points per game this season. The Thunder are a good rebounding team, but that’s the only knock on the Rockets’ matchup. Houston has an implied team total of 105.3 points, which is the fourth highest on the board tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams end up scoring in the 110’s tonight.

James Harden has been the story early on for the Rockets, but not in the way that you would expect. He has shot a paltry 12-for-54 from the field, which is just above 22%. The numbers are even worse from behind the arc, as Harden has only made three of his 32 three-point attempts. I’m not overly concerned though, as Harden will shoot himself out of his slump. He just needs to get back to attacking the basket. I fully expect to see more of that tonight against the Thunder. Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, and Corey Brewer are secondary options behind Harden.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD: $10,400 — DK: $9,900
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 29.9
FP/Game: 37.3 — FP/Min: 0.98

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard

FD: $8,200 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 22.0 — Usage: 31.3
FP/Game: 20.4 — FP/Min: 0.93

Trevor Ariza

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 17.1
FP/Game: 19.9 — FP/Min: 0.57

Corey Brewer

FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 19.9
FP/Game: 19.4 — FP/Min: 0.72

Portland at Minnesota – 8:00 PM

Portland Minnesota
portlandnba Vegas Total 202.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 99.3 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 103.70 Team Pace 102.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Meyers Leonard Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 1 24 1 10 27 Opp. Season 25 23 3 11 18
Opp. Last 7 1 24 1 10 27 Opp. Last 7 25 23 3 11 18

Portland

The Blazers looked great in their season opener against the Pelicans, but have since lost back-to-back games against the Suns. They are a young team that is likely going to play a lot better at home than they are on the road. They will remain a great team to target for our purposes thought, as the salaries have yet to fully reflect their players’ new roles on the team.

Once again, the sample size is still very small, but it’s hard to believe how well the Wolves have played on defense in their first two games of the season. They have held their opponents to 94.5 points per game and they are ranked third in defensive efficiency. When we are this early into the season, I tend to trust the Vegas line and total over the actual defensive rankings. Vegas is expecting both offenses to succeed here, as the total for the game is set at 202.5 points.

I’m going to sound like a broken record here, but it’s more of the same for the Blazers tonight. Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Al-Farouq Aminu are all elite plays at their respective positions. Lillard is still in the same price range that he was last season, even though he has a much bigger role in the offense. McCollum is off to a terrific start this season, averaging 34.3 fantasy points per game. His price has come up, but he still provides good value as the number two option in this offense. Aminu isn’t the flashiest player, but he gets the job done. He has played 32 minutes per game this season and he has been very aggressive on the offensive end of the floor.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard

FD: $8,900 — DK: $9,200
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 32.3
FP/Game: 37.3 — FP/Min: 1.04

C.J. McCollum

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 26.4
FP/Game: 34.3 — FP/Min: 0.98

Al-Farouq Aminu

FD: $5,700 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 20.5
FP/Game: 25.8 — FP/Min: 0.81

Secondary Plays

Mason Plumlee

FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 24.0 — Usage: 17.8
FP/Game: 23.7 — FP/Min: 0.99

Meyers Leonard

FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 16.4
FP/Game: 15.6 — FP/Min: 0.56

Minnesota

The Wolves are 2-0 to start the season, winning their first two games by an average of nine points. It’s been an impressive start, but they haven’t exactly faced the best competition in the Lakers and Nuggets. They will look to stay undefeated tonight, as they host the visiting Blazers.

The Wolves draw a nice matchup tonight against the Wolves, who play at an above-average pace. Portland is ranked 17th in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game and the Blazers have a high implied team total of 103.3 points.

The three positions that the Blazers have struggled to defend this season are point guard, shooting guard, and center. That works out rather nicely, as Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns are really the only fantasy options of note from the Wolves anyway. Rubio has a volatile nature to his game because we never know which Rubio we are going to get. Wiggins is off to a slow start this season and with him dealing with back spasms, I will likely avoid him again tonight. Towns deserves consideration as an elite play though. He is coming off of a huge game against the Nuggets in which he had 28 points, 14 rebounds, and four blocks. Buy your shares of Towns before his price goes up.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 25.2
FP/Game: 40.9 — FP/Min: 1.24

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 24.9
FP/Game: 41.2 — FP/Min: 1.33

Andrew Wiggins

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 26.5
FP/Game: 15.3 — FP/Min: 0.51

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious