NBA Grind Down: Saturday, February 3rd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Clippers – 3:30 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Los Angeles Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.0 |  | Vegas Total | 222.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.0 | Vegas Spread | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 115.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jerian Grant | Zach LaVine | Justin Holiday | Paul Zipser | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Milos Teodosic | Tyrone Wallace | Wesley Johnson | Danilo Gallinari | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 28 | 24 | 19 | 20 | DvP | 28 | 27 | 14 | 22 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 12 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 17 | 12 | 24 | 20 | |
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls made some recent changes trading Nikola Mirotic to the New Orleans Pelicans. This team has made room for some other players to get more opportunities and this is something we will have to take advantage of. The Clippers are ranked in the top ten in pace and the bottom ten in points allowed per game. This is a team that we can target and take advantage of the value with Nikola Mirotic out of town and Lauri Markkanen ruled out.
Bobby Portis is a great forward value with no Mirotic and Markkanen. He should have a field day with all this opportunity and is one of the best options to play on the Bulls. Bobby Portis is an elite play with all the injuries in Chicago. Robin Lopez should also be needed a ton today especially in a matchup against DeAndre Jordan. The biggest concern with Lopez is the minutes, but in the last game both forwards sat, Lopez played 28 minutes. I would expect similar minutes for him here, making him a nice secondary value play. Zach Lavine and Justin Holiday are cheap around the industry and are solid options. The Clippers are ranked 28th against opposing shooting guards and 24th against opposing small forwards. That plays into Lavine and Holiday’s favor and I think they are great guard plays to get exposure to on the Bulls.
Notable Injuries Lauri Markkanen and Kris Dunn (out)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerian Grant | 19.6 | 9.0 | 22.3 | 9.8 | 0.88 | 19.2% | 17 | 14 | 5 | |||
| Zach LaVine | 23.1 | 0.6 | 22.2 | 1.6 | 1.04 | 27.8% | 16 | 28 | 9 | |||
| Justin Holiday | 26.0 | -5.1 | 34.1 | -0.8 | 0.76 | 16.6% | 23 | 24 | 3 | |||
| Paul Zipser | 8.5 | -7.0 | 14.4 | -11.8 | 0.59 | 13.2% | 9 | 19 | 9 | |||
| Robin Lopez | 22.8 | -2.1 | 27.9 | -3.5 | 0.82 | 18.2% | 22 | 20 | 12 | |||
| Bobby Portis | 22.8 | 2.9 | 20.3 | -1.6 | 1.12 | 22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||
| Denzel Valentine | 22.5 | 3.2 | 28.5 | 0.4 | 0.79 | 15.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bobby Portis
Secondary Plays – Zach Lavine, Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday
Los Angeles Clippers
This is a game with a 222 total that I really want to get exposure to, but with both teams making recent trades I am having trouble pinpointing who I want to target. The Clippers will be going up against the Bulls who are ranked 25th in points allowed per game, 24th in defensive efficiency, 19th in rebounding differential and 12th in pace. This is a team that I love to target, but the new additions have me slightly concerned with rostering players.
DeAndre Jordan and Lou Williams have been the only consistent options on the Clippers this year. On these one game slates that FanDuel is offering, I think having at least one of them is the right approach to the slate. In all day slates, I have them as secondary options because the addition of Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley could eat into their production. They are going to play today, and the unknown is something I don’t want to target, so I will likely pass on most Clippers here. I am more of a cash game player and I just don’t think we need to get exposure to the Clippers here. It’s unfortunate because the matchup is great against a fast-paced Bulls team that struggles defensively. I think DeAndre Jordan and Lou Williams are the only safe options because of their solidified roles. I will list them as elite plays because the Bulls are ranked in the bottom ten at defending shooting guards and centers. I am worried though that Bradley and Harris could eat into their production in their first game. The Bulls are also ranked 28th at defending opposing point guards. This plays great for Milos Teodosic and I think he is a nice secondary value option on this slate. I worry about his chemistry with the new teammates, but at this price and matchup, he can’t be overlooked.
Notable Injuries Austin Rivers (out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.6 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 115.0 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 7.4 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Teodosic | 20.8 | 1.4 | 25.8 | 1.5 | 0.81 | 19.3% | 26 | 28 | 23 | |||
| Tyrone Wallace | 23.1 | -2.2 | 32.7 | 0.7 | 0.70 | 14.5% | 28 | 27 | 17 | |||
| Wesley Johnson | 19.4 | 7.6 | 24.9 | 7.1 | 0.78 | 11.7% | 27 | 14 | 12 | |||
| Danilo Gallinari | 23.8 | -1.3 | 31.2 | -5.8 | 0.76 | 19.2% | 25 | 22 | 24 | |||
| DeAndre Jordan | 34.0 | -1.5 | 32.1 | 0.1 | 1.06 | 11.9% | 18 | 21 | 20 | |||
| Lou Williams | 35.3 | 5.4 | 32.4 | 3.0 | 1.09 | 27.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||
| Montrezl Harrell | 17.0 | 6.8 | 15.4 | 4.0 | 1.10 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – DeAndre Jordan and Lou Williams
Secondary Plays – Milos Teodosic
Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.0 |  | Vegas Total | 197.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 97.5 | Implied Team Total | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Reggie Bullock | Stanley Johnson | Blake Griffin | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 10 | 28 | 13 | 5 | DvP | 3 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 20 | 11 | 27 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 1 | |
Miami Heat
The Heat are not an offense we love to target. They are ranked 28th in points allowed per game and have the second lowest implied total on the slate at 97.5 points. The Heat are also ranked 28th in pace and get a matchup against the 20th ranked pace team in the league. This is not a game that I love, but with Hassan Whiteside leaving Friday’s game early, I think we could have some value open up on the Heat side of the ball.
Whiteside has been on the trade block for the Heat because they want to give Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk more run at center. I think they likely let Whiteside sit this out and give this team a look against a big team like the Pistons to see how they fare. If Whiteside sits, Bam and Olynyk will be elite value plays on this slate. James Johnson would also enter the conversation, but these would be my two main targets. The Pistons are ranked 28th at defending small forwards and it is clearly their weakness defensively. I don’t love Josh Richardson’s price around the industry, but this matchup is too good to not consider Richardson as a secondary play. The Heat guards are going to be hard passes for me because of this matchup and the other guards we have been given on this slate. There are just too many great guard plays that I don’t think this is a good spot to play Dragic and Johnson.
Notable Injuries Hassan Whiteside (illness, questionable)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.4 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.5 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -2.9 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,700 | 29.7 | -7.9 | 31.8 | -4.0 | 0.93 | 25.3% | 19 | 7 | 16 |
| Tyler Johnson | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 22.5 | -2.2 | 29.1 | -4.6 | 0.77 | 17.5% | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,200 | $5,800 | $12,300 | 25.8 | 5.6 | 34.2 | 1.9 | 0.75 | 16.5% | 25 | 28 | 11 |
| James Johnson | $5,100 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 24.7 | -0.8 | 26.9 | 2.6 | 0.92 | 18.5% | 13 | 13 | 27 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,700 | $7,400 | $14,200 | 36.1 | -3.1 | 25.9 | -0.5 | 1.39 | 20.4% | 11 | 5 | 4 |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,000 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 17.8 | 5.2 | 26.2 | 8.2 | 0.68 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk (if Whiteside is out)
Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson
Detroit Pistons
The Heat are not a team that I love to attack defensively, and this is a game I will likely not get a ton of exposure to. The Heat are ranked 3rd in points allowed per game, 7th in defensive efficiency and 28th in pace. This is not a DFS friendly game for the Pistons and I think is a good team to not get a ton of exposure to on this slate.
The Pistons are a completely different team after the Blake Griffin trade. I expect Drummond’s fantasy value to be hurt slightly, but still should be a good option. Griffin will see a nice usage and be someone to target a lot, but this matchup against Miami is not my favorite. I think we can list him as a secondary play because of his 27.7% usage and 1.85 fantasy points per minute in the season opener. I don’t expect the fantasy points per minute to continue, but with the tough matchup he is in play. Ish Smith should struggle and is a fade against the Heat who defend the point guard position well. Stan Van Gundy talked about how Stanley Johnson, Luke Kennard and Reggie Bullock will also see increased roles since Harris and Bradley got traded. If you force me to pick one guy to play here it would be Reggie Bullock, but I think this is the wrong slate for these guys. I will likely fade the Pistons for the most part, but the idea of rostering Blake on a new team with this production does sound fun. I forgot to mention Andre Drummond and he is worth talking about because of his price. On FanDuel he is too expensive, but on DraftKings for $1700 less I think he makes a fine tournament play, especially if Whiteside sits.
Notable Injuries None
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,100 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 21.7 | 4.9 | 23.4 | 7.5 | 0.93 | 23.5% | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,600 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 15.2 | 8.5 | 24.2 | 4.7 | 0.63 | 12.1% | 10 | 12 | 20 |
| Stanley Johnson | $5,800 | $5,100 | $11,000 | 18.3 | 7.5 | 27.3 | 1.6 | 0.67 | 14.3% | 16 | 6 | 7 |
| Blake Griffin | $9,300 | $8,200 | $14,700 | 40.8 | 6.7 | 34.5 | 1.6 | 1.18 | 26.9% | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| Andre Drummond | $10,200 | $8,500 | $15,600 | 45.2 | 9.2 | 33.2 | 0.6 | 1.36 | 18.5% | 9 | 7 | 1 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (draftkings only)
Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Marreese Speights | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 29 | 19 | 28 | 23 | DvP | 18 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 27 | 30 | 9 | 26 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 13 | 1 | 19 | 9 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards may not have John Wall, but they do get to go up against one of the best matchups in DFS, the Orlando Magic. The Magic are still ranked 28th in points allowed per game, 27th in defensive efficiency, 29th in rebounding differential and 7th in pace. They have been in the bottom five in all those categories all year long and play at the fastest pace. They are one of the best teams to target this year and the Wizards are going to be a team that we want to get exposure to on this slate.
With John Wall out for the past couple of games the Wizards have been a primary target in many players DFS lineups. Their prices have gone up around the industry making them tougher to roster, but in a matchup against the Magic, they will be tough to overlook. Bradley Beal is above $9000 and draws a great matchup against the Magic who are ranked in the bottom five at defending guards. Beal has a nice usage increase without Wall and is an elite play in this matchup. Tomas Satoransky is also too cheap for his matchup against Orlando. They are ranked last at defending opposing point guards and he is an elite value on this slate. Otto Porter is not a bad play but is starting to get priced up around the industry. I don’t mind him on this slate, but I just prefer to spend my money elsewhere at small forward. Porter is a secondary option and more in play on FanDuel where I am forced to play two small forwards.
Markieff Morris has been consistent since Wall has been injured. His price is starting to get expensive, but in a matchup against the 28th ranked team at defending opposing power forwards, this is a spot that we can’t pass up on. Markieff has a safe floor with upside here and is a secondary option. Last guy I want to mention is Marcin Gortat. If you want to take a stroll down narrative street – this is his former team and he loves Orlando. He has been open about how he wants to end his career here and I could see him getting up for this one. This slate has too many appealing center options where I will pass, but if others like Gortat I won’t talk them off it.
Notable Injuries John Wall (out)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.0 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Satoransky | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 12.9 | 1.1 | 16.7 | 2.3 | 0.77 | 14.3% | 29 | 30 | 23 |
| Bradley Beal | $9,200 | $9,100 | $17,800 | 37.4 | 4.4 | 36.1 | 2.6 | 1.04 | 26.0% | 29 | 29 | 27 |
| Otto Porter | $7,500 | $7,100 | $13,200 | 29.9 | 3.3 | 31.7 | 0.8 | 0.94 | 16.3% | 25 | 19 | 30 |
| Markieff Morris | $6,300 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 21.0 | 10.4 | 25.8 | 6.8 | 0.81 | 16.1% | 18 | 28 | 9 |
| Marcin Gortat | $5,100 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 23.8 | -8.0 | 26.5 | -6.3 | 0.90 | 13.8% | 23 | 23 | 26 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,600 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 22.0 | -1.5 | 27.2 | 0.2 | 0.81 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal and Tomas Satoransky
Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris
Orlando Magic
The Magic have been banged up most the year and are ranked 15th in points per game. This may not be a high-powered offense, but their lack of defense and fast pace helps with their fantasy value. They get a matchup against the Wizards who are ranked 12th in defensive efficiency and 12th in points allowed per game. This may not be a great spot for Orlando players, but with their current injury situations and prices around the industry, we can still get some exposure to Orlando players.
Elfrid Payton is the first guy that jumps off the table who I want to play in tournaments. He is only $6600 and gets a matchup against a Wizards team that plays down to their competition often and is ranked 18th at defending point guards. Payton is too cheap on DraftKings and is an elite option for me. Evan Fournier is someone that I think is worth fading on this slate. If he hits his shots he can pay off value, but I just think there are better shooting guards in his price range Jonathan Simmons has the best on paper matchup against the 25th ranked team at defending small forwards. We have attacked the Wizards with this position all year and I think Simmons and Mario Hezonja are secondary value plays. The last play that I am considering will be Marreese Speights. If Aaron Gordon is out, Speights could slide into the starting lineup and be a nice secondary value play. In his last two games, he played 21 minutes scoring 31 FanDuel points and 23 minutes for 27.3 FanDuel points. At a price of $4000 he can smash value, but Speights has been risky in the past and this is not one of my favorite matchups for him. Because of that, I left him as a secondary play and news on Aaron Gordon will be important to look for on this slate.
Notable Injuries Aaron Gordon (questionable)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.2 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,100 | $6,600 | $12,800 | 29.9 | 1.8 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 1.03 | 21.5% | 11 | 18 | 20 |
| Evan Fournier | $6,100 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 32.7 | 0.5 | 0.86 | 20.8% | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,600 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 22.6 | 0.8 | 28.9 | 1.8 | 0.78 | 19.6% | 12 | 25 | 1 |
| Marreese Speights | $4,000 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 12.4 | -2.1 | 12.8 | -3.4 | 0.96 | 22.5% | 23 | 3 | 19 |
| Bismack Biyombo | $5,500 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 17.2 | 3.0 | 18.7 | 4.6 | 0.92 | 10.9% | 11 | 17 | 9 |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton
Secondary Plays – Mario Hezonja
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 28 | DvP | 12 | 22 | 23 | 16 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 17 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 26 | 1 | 23 | 2 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers have been a fun team to play in fantasy playing at the 4th fastest pace in the league. They are starting to get healthier though and don’t raw the greatest matchup tonight. The Pacers are ranked 12th in points allowed per game, 15th in defensive efficiency, 21st in rebounding differential and 18th in pace. Nothing jumps off the page here to make me want to target the Pacers, but there are a couple of guys that we can consider on the Sixers.
One of my favorite things to do in fantasy is target the Pacers with centers. The Pacers are ranked 28th against opposing centers and they must go up against Joel Embiid. Embiid is on the second half of a back to back and we were told that he will play them going forward. With so many great pay up options at center, I think he could get lost in the shuffle and could be a secondary tournament option on this slate. I don’t think we need to play him in cash, but ownership could be lower on him and we know his upside is massive. With the Sixers getting healthier I really have no interest in any of these other options. I think many of them are priced up and not necessary on this slate. If you force me to take one I would play Dario Saric for his safety and upside against at poor Pacers frontcourt.
Notable Injuries Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (out)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.9 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $8,500 | $8,300 | $16,900 | 41.2 | -1.8 | 35.0 | 0.3 | 1.18 | 23.1% | 3 | 10 | 17 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,200 | $5,400 | $11,300 | 25.9 | 32.6 | 0.79 | 19.3% | 19 | 9 | 1 | ||
| Robert Covington | $5,900 | $5,700 | $13,200 | 28.2 | -3.1 | 32.4 | 0.4 | 0.87 | 15.4% | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| Dario Saric | $6,500 | $6,700 | $13,800 | 27.4 | 3.4 | 30.4 | -1.3 | 0.90 | 18.0% | 19 | 15 | 9 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,500 | $9,800 | $18,100 | 44.7 | -7.3 | 31.5 | 0.6 | 1.42 | 27.3% | 28 | 28 | 16 |
| T.J. McConnell | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 21.1 | -7.5 | 24.7 | -2.8 | 0.85 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Joel Embiid
Secondary Plays – None
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are starting to get healthier with the return of Myles Turner to the starting lineup. This is great for them and they get to up against the 4th fastest paced team in the league the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers are playing at such a fast pace they really struggle in the points allowed category as they are currently ranked in the bottom ten in the league. Despite that, they have been great defensively and are ranked 4th in efficiency. Either way, this pace is great for the Pacers and makes some of these plays viable.
Myles Turner, Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis will have a tough task trying to slow Embiid down all game long. I think all of them are easy fades for me on this slate. I also believe Darren Collison should have a hard time with the Sixers and think he is overpriced around the industry. This leads me to two guys that I like a lot who could have a lot of production funneled into them. Victor Oladipo gets a matchup against the 22nd ranked team at defending shooting guards and is a secondary play for me. I love targeting the Sixers with guards and the only reason I made him a secondary play is that I prefer a lot of mid-tier shooting guards to him. I also prefer spending my money at other positions, making me less likely to pay for Oladipo. This matchup can’t be ignored though, and I think he is a good tournament play. If you can’t afford Oladipo and are looking for cheap exposure to this game Bojan Bogdanovic is a great way to do so. He gets a matchup against the 23rd ranked team at defending small forwards and he gets to play a familiar team. Bogdanovic is a former Net and has played against the Sixers a ton in the past. This is a good spot for Bogdanovic and he is a secondary value play for me.
Notable Injuries None
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.2 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.1 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,900 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 27.5 | 8.0 | 30.1 | 1.3 | 0.91 | 18.6% | 6 | 12 | 1 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,000 | $8,400 | $14,900 | 41.9 | -2.7 | 34.3 | 2.2 | 1.22 | 27.1% | 23 | 22 | 26 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 19.7 | -2.0 | 30.2 | -3.7 | 0.65 | 16.1% | 10 | 23 | 1 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,200 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 27.1 | 6.3 | 32.7 | 2.3 | 0.83 | 15.3% | 16 | 16 | 23 |
| Myles Turner | $7,100 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 30.0 | -9.0 | 28.5 | -12.4 | 1.05 | 18.2% | 6 | 12 | 2 |
| Domantas Sabonis | $6,400 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 26.8 | 3.3 | 25.6 | 3.1 | 1.05 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cory Joseph | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 18.0 | -0.6 | 25.9 | 1.4 | 0.69 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,000 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 20.5 | 4.4 | 23.2 | 0.7 | 0.88 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo and Bojan Bogdonavic
Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:30 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Spread | Vegas Spread | |||||||||||
| Implied Team Total | Implied Team Total | |||||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Luc Mbah a Moute | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Isaiah Thomas | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Tristan Thompson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 23 | 29 | 20 | 25 | DvP | 8 | 25 | 21 | 6 | 24 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 27 | 25 | 24 | 28 | 30 | DRPM Rat. | 2 | 16 | 1 | 28 | 3 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets get one of the best matchups you can ask for against the struggling Cavaliers. Cleveland is ranked 26th in points allowed per game, 29th in defensive efficiency and 25th in rebounding differential. Although their pace of play is down to 13th in the league they are dealing with no Kevin Love and are not gelling as a unit. This is a great spot to load up on Rockets against a Cleveland team that can’t stop a nose bleed.
Editor’s Note – Eric Gordon has indeed been ruled out
I will start out talking about the Rockets by saying everyone on the court has a great matchup. You can make the case for playing Rockets by saying it’s against Cleveland. Chris Paul gets the 27th ranked team against opposing point guards, but the question is do you want to spend on him?? My answer is no because I will just find the money for Steph Curry who I love tonight. If you have the money for Harden tonight can’t complain and he like Chris Paul is an elite play. I just see myself gravitating to some of the value plays instead especially with Eric Gordon questionable. If Gordon sits Gerald Green slides into the Gordon role and is an elite play on this slate. He will basically play the Eric Gordon role and is too cheap for the situation he would be in. Trevor Ariza being out also helps Green and helps others too. Luc Mbah a Moute will slide into the starting lineup and be asked to guard LeBron James. He and PJ Tucker would likely split those duties and will get a pile of minutes. I think you can mix them your lineups, but they are not top plays for me. Ryan Anderson is a great play on FanDuel where he only cost $3800. At that price, I think he is a play that we must consider who has some cash game safety and tournament winning upside. I typically like Clint Capela and think this is a fine spot for him, but at his current price I think I will look elsewhere. He can certainly thrive here, but I just prefer spending up for other Centers around the industry today. To summarize things: this is a team that we should want to target a ton because they are going up against a historically bad defense in the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Rockets have one of the highest totals on the slate and should be good plays in cash games and tournaments.
Notable Injuries Trevor Ariza (out) and Eric Gordon (questionable)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.1 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.8 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.8 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $9,500 | $9,300 | $17,600 | 43.3 | -5.2 | 32.1 | -0.3 | 1.35 | 26.0% | 24 | 27 | 27 |
| James Harden | $11,500 | $11,600 | $21,900 | 54.7 | 5.8 | 36.1 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 33.9% | 24 | 23 | 25 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 15.9 | -3.8 | 26.2 | 1.7 | 0.61 | 10.3% | 27 | 29 | 24 |
| Ryan Anderson | $3,800 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 19.3 | -7.4 | 28.3 | -3.0 | 0.68 | 12.9% | 24 | 20 | 28 |
| Clint Capela | $7,700 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 34.7 | -3.5 | 26.7 | 2.0 | 1.30 | 17.2% | 19 | 25 | 30 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,400 | $6,000 | $12,300 | 26.6 | -5.9 | 32.2 | -4.6 | 0.83 | 22.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, James Harden and Gerald Green
Secondary Plays – Ryan Anderson (fanduel specific)
Cleveland Cavaliers
The banged-up Cleveland Cavaliers are not in the greatest spot on this slate. The Rockets are ranked 18th in points allowed per game, 11th in defensive efficiency, 5th in rebounding differential and 8th in pace. On paper, this looks like a game we typically love to target, but I am worried about this game blowing out and not having a ton of fantasy goodness on Cleveland.
LeBron James without Kevin Love is always in consideration, but at his current price and playing alongside Isaiah Thomas, I will fade him entirely. The current situation is a mess and it seems he has just checked out. Sure, LeBron can put his superhero cape on and carry any team to victory, but at his price, I think it is easier to fade him when we have great spent up options already. Wade, Smith, and Thomas have made that backcourt more crowded and are just not appealing options to me on this slate. If you force me to play one Cavs player it would be Tristan Thompson who I expect to get his 25- 30 minutes to matchup against Clint Capela most the game. The fast-paced game environment can lead to more rebounds and block opportunities and at cheap price he can pay that off easy. Other than that, I am worried this game blows out and think that the Cavs are not a team we want to over expose ourselves to on this slate.
Notable Injuries Kevin Love (out)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.0 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 12)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 12)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Thomas | $6,300 | $6,000 | $12,900 | 22.3 | 1.3 | 26.3 | 2.3 | 0.85 | 27.3% | 7 | 8 | 2 |
| J.R. Smith | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 16.7 | 2.9 | 29.8 | -0.7 | 0.56 | 11.9% | 20 | 25 | 16 |
| LeBron James | $11,500 | $11,200 | $22,100 | 53.1 | -6.6 | 37.0 | 1.4 | 1.43 | 29.2% | 27 | 21 | 1 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,200 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 16.4 | 1.3 | 25.4 | -0.2 | 0.65 | 13.4% | 7 | 6 | 28 |
| Tristan Thompson | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 14.9 | 4.6 | 19.8 | 5.0 | 0.75 | 10.2% | 10 | 24 | 3 |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,700 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 24.7 | 2.6 | 23.3 | -1.4 | 1.06 | 22.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 18.7 | -5.6 | 22.1 | -5.4 | 0.85 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |