NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 13th

by Travis Mangone (Mangone) Last Updated 2018-01-14 02:57:32

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks – 2:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers							Dallas Mavericks
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Spread		4.5					Vegas Spread		-4.5
			Implied Team Total		105.5					Implied Team Total		110.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.1					Pace Projection +/-		4.5
Projected Starters	Lonzo Ball	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	Brandon Ingram	Julius Randle	Brook Lopez		Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Yogi Ferrell	Wesley Matthews	Harrison Barnes	Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	22	5	11	18	21		DvP	27	23	30	25	24
DRPM Rat.	29	2	27	30	16		DRPM Rat.	1	9	25	17	11

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are the fastest paced team in the league and ranked 10th in points per game. They get a matchup against a bad Dallas team that’s ranked 12th in points allowed per game, 22nd in defensive efficiency, and 29th in rebounding differential. The Mavericks are a team that looks like they are good to target, but the problem is they play at the 5th slowest pace in the league. The Lakers are better with Lonzo Ball, but with them getting healthier and Luke Walton’s unpredictable minutes, it’s hard to decide who to I want to play here.

The Lakers have been a lot better since Lonzo Ball has came back from injury. Lonzo is priced up and since I am already looking to roster Russell Westbrook at PG on this small three game slate paying up for Lonzo doesn’t feel optimal. The Mavericks are ranked 22nd against opposing point guards and if you have the money for Lonzo, I think it’s fine because of his upside, but I wouldn’t prioritize him in this spot. If you want to get exposure to a Lakers guard. I would look at Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as my favorite option. KCP has not been allowed to play road games because of an off the court issue. but is now allowed to play road games and I think his price is too cheap for this matchup. He will also be needed a ton on the floor because I expect the Mavericks to run a lot of small ball guard lineups. At $5100 and $5500 on the two sites, I like KCP as a secondary option. Brandon Ingram has been playing well recently and is a safe option if you want a safe Lakers play. I do feel he is a bit priced up, so I don’t think I will load up on him, but if you have a ton of salary I don’t mind overpaying for him.

There are rumors that the Lakers are trying trade Julius Randle and with his recent production and steady minutes, I think he makes a good roster here. I will scratch the recent Spurs game because it’s the Spurs and they are one of the better defensive teams in the league. Dallas is ranked in the bottom five in rebounding differential and should be a spot where Randle can get an easy double-double. The only thing getting in his way would be Luke Walton. I hate saying this, but the Lakers big man situation can be unpredictable, and I think they all have upside at their prices but they all come with risk. I think Randle could have a big game, but Kuzma feels like the safest play. His price has gone down, and I expect this game to go small which would give Kuzma more opportunities. Larry Nance and Brooke Lopez, I think you can take tournament fliers on but that’s the only way to get exposure to them. The Lakers situation is frustrating, but I expect this game to go small, so I would build your Lakers lineups according to that. If I had to pick my three favorite Lakers to play on this slate it would be Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma. and Brandon Ingram.

Notable Injuries None

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.8 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma

Secondary Plays – Brandon Ingram and Julius Randle

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks are a team that I rarely roster but in a game against the fastest paced team in the league they can’t go ignored. The Lakers are also ranked 29th in points allowed per game, 14th in defensive efficiency and 10th in rebounding differential. On a three-game slate rostering multiple Mavericks might feel a bit uncomfortable but that is not the case today.

Dennis Smith Jr. is my favorite target here on the Mavericks. Smith Jr. is averaging 31.9 DraftKings points in his last five games and gets to go up against the 27th ranked team against opposing Point Guards. This fast-paced game environment is a great fit for Dennis Smith Jr. and I expect a big game from him in this spot. Wesley Matthews and J.J. Barea are fine safe cash plays. I worry about Wesley Matthews upside at his current price so I think he is strictly a cash game plays. I think Barea is a fine play in tournaments as well but I prefer Dennis Smith Jr. at his price.

Harrison Barnes is my second favorite Dallas option for $7300 on both sites. It feels expensive, but this is a three-game slate. Barnes draws a matchup against the worst team in the league against opposing Small Forwards and he’s averaging 37.5 DraftKings points in his last five games. This game fits Barnes well and I think he is an elite option here. The only other Dallas player worth rostering here is Dirk Nowitzki. He is very cheap around the industry and this is an island game for Dallas. They didn’t play yesterday and don’t play Sunday, so I expect Dirk to be full go and if game stays close he could see some extra minutes. At Dirk’s price he is a secondary option today.

Notable Injuries None

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.6 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 7.4 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.1 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.9 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Smith Jr. and Harrison Barnes

Secondary Plays – Dirk Nowitzki and J.J. Barea

Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers – 3:30 PM ET

Sacramento Kings							Los Angeles Clippers
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		-2.7
Projected Starters	De’Aaron Fox	George Hill	Garrett Temple	Zach Randolph	Willie Cauley-Stein		Projected Starters	Milos Teodosic	Lou Williams	Tyrone Wallace	Blake Griffin	DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	30	22	20	12		DvP	8	18	21	23	27
DRPM Rat.	2	30	12	27	11		DRPM Rat.	29	26	19	27	21

Sacramento Kings

The Kings are healthier and are back to be a frustrating roster. The Clippers are playing at the 11th fastest pace in the league and with the Clippers being so banged up I sort of think the Kings can keep this close enough. The Kings are ranked dead last averaging 97.3 points per game, so this is not an offense I want to invest in heavily.

De’Aaron Fox is a safe point guard option on this slate. With the Kings getting healthier I think it can hurt his upside at that price, but I think for a three-game slate he would be a secondary play for me. George Hill is too much on FanDuel but I prefer him more on DraftKings. Bogdan Bogdanovic is priced like Hill and Fox but is not someone that I love here either. The Kings guard rotation is sort of a roulette wheel when healthy. Whoever is shooting best will get more usage and run so on a three-game slate if you want exposure to the Kings guards I would mix them throughout your lineups. If DeAndre Jordan plays I think more of the bigs become viable on the Kings. If that’s the case I think I would just buy low on the best values on each site. If you’re playing FanDuel grab Zach Randolph for $5100 because its too cheap and helps fill the Power Forward spot. On DraftKings buy low on the $5900 price of Willie Cauley-Stein. You can also roster multiple Centers on DK and if you take Cauley-Stein on FanDuel, I think it makes you miss out on other Center’s that I like.

Notable Injuries Frank Mason (out)

Sacramento Kings Offense

Points Per Game: 97.3 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Zach Randolph (FanDuel only)

Secondary Plays – De’Aaron Fox and Willie Cauley-Stein (DraftKings)

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers seem to always have an injury and this time it’s DeAndre Jordan. This will be big news for us to watch in a matchup against the worst defensive efficiency team in the league. The only issue is the King play at the 3rd slowest pace in the league. The Clippers injuries should cancel out this pace because there is still a lot of value to be had here.

If we get news that DeAndre Jordan is out Blake Griffin will be one of the better pay up options on this slate. I would not jam in Blake if it forced you to get off Russell Westbrook, but I think trying to jam both in is smart on this slate. I think it is more viable on FanDuel than DraftKings though and it looks like playing Westbrook and going balanced might be the better approach. Either way if Jordan is out Blake Griffin would be an elite play against a Kings team that is ranked 23rd against opposing Power Forwards. Montrezl Harrell would be the best value to get exposure to of the Clippers big men if DeAndre Jordan sits. He is cheap around the industry and has 21 fantasy points or more in his last three of four games. This is a great spot to use him as a value play if the injuries fall our way.

Milos Teodosic being back has eaten into some of the guard value. Jawun Evans value is now not needed with Milos back, but Tyrone Wallace is still cheap and seeing the minutes. He had 36 minutes last game and has been playing better than Evans. They have been giving him more run and I think Wallace is the best guard value on the Clippers. Milos is also a decent option, but his minutes might be monitored so that caps his upside. Lou Williams gets a great matchup and should dominate here but the question is do we want to pay over $9000 for him?? My first thought is no but it is a three-game slate and if you have the money I like him as a secondary play. If I had to pick between Williams and Griffin, I would side with Griffin.

Notable Injuries DeAndre Jordan and CJ Williams (Questionable) Austin Rivers (out)

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.5 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.9 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin and Tyrone Wallace

Secondary Plays – Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell

Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets – 5:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		210.0					Vegas Total		210.0
			Vegas Spread		-1.5					Vegas Spread		1.5
			Implied Team Total		105.8					Implied Team Total		104.3
			Pace Projection +/-		1.4					Pace Projection +/-		-1.7
Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Terrance Ferguson	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	12	27	15	3		DvP	3	11	6	7	20
DRPM Rat.	13	7	9	21	8		DRPM Rat.	3	18	3	24	23

Oklahoma City Thunder

The best game on the slate is Charlotte Hornets against the Oklahoma City Thunder who are 1.5 road favorites. The Thunder are playing against a top ten team in pace and when that happens you know Russell Westbrook is going to be one of the top plays on the slate. It helps that this is a road game for the Thunder too because it will likely stay close and this is my favorite game to stack on the three-game early slate.

Russell Westbrook is the top play and should come preloaded in all your early lineups. I understand you can pay up in other spots and use your salary but use it on Westbrook and just let others make mistakes. Andre Roberson is expected to be out for this game making Terrance Ferguson an interesting cheap option around the industry. I think he is risky but if he helps make everything work I understand it but not someone I want heavy exposure to. Someone I do want a lot of exposure to would be Paul George. I normally don’t say this, but I think he is a great spend up option on this slate. The Hornets are ranked 27th against opposing Small Forwards and the position is an ugly one. His recent games might keep people off him and I think he is a great way to spend your money at Small Forward.

Steven Adams is a good play for $6000 on FanDuel and $6200 on DraftKings. This price is just too cheap for him and he should be needed a ton on the floor to cover Dwight Howard. This is not an easy matchup for Adams but at his price I want to get exposure to him. Carmelo Anthony is the last guy to discuss but not someone that will make my lineups. His price is fair, but it seems like he has at best a x5 ceiling and I prefer other plays on the Thunder where I think fading him is a fine route to take.

Notable Injuries Andre Roberson (out)

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 104.4 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook and Paul George

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have a tough matchup against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that has been playing a lot better this season. The Thunder are ranked 4th in points allowed per game, 6th in defensive efficiency and 7th in rebounding differential. This is also a pace down game for the Hornets and their prices are expensive throughout the industry.

Kemba Walker on FanDuel is way too expensive and not worth rostering at $8900. On DraftKings he is only $7500 and has been averaging 43.3 DraftKings points per game. If I play Kemba I will get my exposure to him over there. This is a tough matchup though going up against the 3rd best team at defending opposing Point Guards. I think Kemba is a good secondary option on DraftKings but not someone that you need to lock in your lineups. Nicolas Batum has been frustrating all year and I think I prefer other guards at his price on this slate. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is cheap enough where I think he has upside and is worth a look as a cheap tournament option. I feel the same about Marvin Williams who has been producing 17 or more fantasy points in his last three games and has 26 or more minutes in two of those games. Williams is a cheap secondary option that you can take a shot on in tournaments on a small slate.

If you have the money I really like the matchup for Dwight Howard against Steven Adams. The Thunder are ranked 20th in the league at defending opposing Center’s and he should play a ton of minutes. My biggest concern with Dwight is that the game could go small and he could lose some minutes but that should not be the case against Adams. On FanDuel I don’t love Howard’s $8800 price but on DraftKings $7400 is way too cheap. Howard is an elite play for me on Draftkings and building block for my lineups on this three-game early slate.

Notable Injuries Cody Zeller (out)

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.2 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dwight Howard (DK only) and Kemba Walker (DK only)

Secondary Plays – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams

Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Spread		9.5					Vegas Spread		-9.5
			Implied Team Total		103.0					Implied Team Total		112.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.2					Pace Projection +/-		3.0
Projected Starters	Spencer Dinwiddie	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Tyler Zeller		Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	6	18	6	8		DvP	25	20	16	29	29
DRPM Rat.	8	11	1	17	8		DRPM Rat.	4	16	4	21	13

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are playing the second night of a back to back and must travel to Washington to take on the Wizards. They come into this game as 9.5-point road underdogs and I slightly worry about a blowout here. The Wizards do play down to their competition at times so hopefully we can get a close game, so we can roster a ton of plays in this game. The Wizards are ranked 10th in points allowed per game, 8th in defensive efficiency and 18th in rebounding differential.

Spencer Dinwiddie helped me a have a good night last night, so I am excited to possible roster him again. His price around the industry is $6400 and $6500 and is too cheap in this matchup. Dinwiddie had 45.8 fantasy points in a great matchup, but this is not a great one against the 12th ranked team at defending point guards. We have seen Dinwiddie’s low floor and I will probably buy him at this price but if we expect high ownership I don’t hate fading him in tournaments. I think Dinwiddie is a secondary play for me on this slate. I think the upside is there, but the floor is low and if ownership is high there are reasons to be lower on him. Allen Crabbe is another cheap way to get exposure to this game and I think he is a good play to mix in your tournament lineups. It’s not the greatest but feels like someone you can get exposure to if your max entering tournaments. Caris Levert is the last guard to discuss on the Nets. He is just not seeing enough minutes and production for me to consider him on this slate.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is another play I love on this slate. I like targeting the Wizards on the wing and I think this could be a great spot for RHJ. $7200 is pricey on FanDuel but I prefer him over on DraftKings for $6700. The final Brooklyn player that I want to consider would be DeMarre Carroll. He is under $5000 around the industry and at this price I think he is a very safe option that has upside at this price. I think Carroll is an elite cash game play and a great way to save money and get exposure to this game. He may not have 40-point upside but at this price he doesn’t need to do that and can help you fit in the studs that you wan to pay for.

Notable Injuries D’Angelo Russell

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 105.9 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.9 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Demarre Carroll and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are 9.5-point home favorites and get to play one of our favorite teams to target in fantasy, the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets are ranked 26th in points allowed per game, 16th in defensive efficiency and 15th in rebounding differential. The Nets are also a top five team in pace and although the sites priced up Washington plays we still must give them a hard look in this matchup.

John Wall is someone that I like to roster when he is under $9000 or less. Wall’s price is fair and if I have the money to spend up on Wall it makes a ton of sense. This is a fast-paced team that is ranked in the bottom five at defending opposing point guards. If you have the money for Wall, he is no doubt an elite play on this slate but if I had to pick I prefer spending on Bradley Beal instead. I prefer the savings on Beal because he is fitting my construction better, but he also gets a great matchup against the 20th ranked team against opposing shooting guards. Bradley Beal is also an elite option that I would make sure to get exposure to on this slate.

Otto Porter has been struggling a lot recently only averaging 20.9 DraftKings points in his last four games. I think the price increase on Porter is too high and I don’t think he is a great play at this price. I would look at Kelly Oubre over Porter for cheap if I wanted exposure to a Small Forward against the Nets. If I played a forward on Washington I would load up on Markieff Morris for cheap. Morris is still underpriced for the ceiling that he can provide. He is averaging 26.9 DraftKings points in his last five games and only cost $5000. The Nets are ranked 29th against opposing Power Forwards and I think he is an elite tournament option on this slate. I don’t hate him in cash games but there is some risk with him. I like to embrace more risk on the four game slates with less safe plays, so I think this matchup and upside makes him cash game viable. Marcin Gortat has been good recently averaging 28.3 DraftKings points in his last five games. He is a safe option and someone that I will list as a secondary play. For only $5000 he has upside but there is still some risk to him. This game could go small and he could lose a ton of minutes. This is also back to back for Gortat but if I am paying down at Center I think Gortat is a safe option.

Notable Injuries None

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.4 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.5 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 6.1 ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall and Bradley Beal

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris

Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		1.2					Pace Projection +/-		3.3
Projected Starters	Stephen Curry	Klay Thompson	Kevin Durant	Draymond Green	Zaza Pachulia		Projected Starters	Delon Wright	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	7	19	2	14	14		DvP	15	14	10	19	26
DRPM Rat.	5	22	3	13	19		DRPM Rat.	15	13	12	1	2

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors had a scare the other day when Stephen Curry re-aggravated his ankle, but he is expected to be back for this game. The Warriors draw a matchup against a Raptors team that is ranked 2nd in the Eastern Conference and has won seven of their last ten games. The Raptors are ranked 9th in points allowed per game, 4th in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace of play. This will not be the same Toronto team because Kyle Lowry has been out and only doing some light work in practice on Friday. I don’t expect him to play in this game but that is news we will have to wait on. This is the highest total of the night and a game that we should want to have exposure to.

Steph Curry showed against Dallas when he returned from injury that he could go for massive games right away. In his first game back from injury he had 38 real life points in 25 minutes! If Lowry is out that will be a much easier matchup on Curry and he could go for a big game here. I think the safe play is John Wall if you are paying up at Point Guard but if you want to get crazy I think Curry is a great tournament play especially if we don’t get confirmation on him playing until closer to lock. Kevin Durant get a tough matchup against the third ranked team against opposing Small Forwards. Durant has been under-performing with Curry off the floor and I think Durant is going to be a fade for me. I understand the Small Forward position is weak today, but I don’t think I want to spend my money on him today. I prefer him more on FanDuel where you are forced to roster two Small Forwards and the position is just so weak.

The best matchup on the board goes to Klay Thompson who gets to go up against the 19th ranked team against opposing shooting guards. Klay has a decent price around the industry, but the Raptors are ranked fourth in the league at defending the three-point line. This is where Klay’s upside really benefits, and I think I will pass on him here. Draymond Green is the last Warriors player to really discuss against Toronto. He gets to face the 19th ranked team against opposing Power Forwards and I think he is a good tournament option. I expect the game to go small and him to be matched up a ton with Ibaka at the 5. I don’t love Draymond’s price at $7600 but I think he could have a good game.

To summarize the Warriors if Curry doesn’t play Durant would gain a ton of usage and become one of the top plays on the board today. If Curry plays I love him in this spot and I think he is my favorite Warriors player to roster. Draymond Green would be my second favorite because of his upside in this matchup.

Notable Injuries Stephen Curry and Omri Casspi (questionable)

Golden State Warriors Offense

Points Per Game: 115.7 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry (if he plays)

Secondary Plays – Draymond Green and Kevin Durant

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors could be without Kyle Lowry to take on the defending champs on Saturday night. This would be a tough game with Lowry but if he sits I certainly worry about possible blowout. The Warriors are the fourth fastest paced team in the league and ranked third in defensive efficiency. If Kyle Lowry sits the Raptors will have a ton of value and be a team that we want to get a lot of exposure to.

I am going to do this analysis with the assumption that Kyle Lowry is out. DeMar DeRozan is expensive at over $8900 across the industry but he is an elite play on this slate. With Lowry off the court Derozan sees a 40.5% usage and averages 1.41 fantasy points per minutes. Derozan would be one of the best plays on the slate and one I want exposure to in tournaments and cash games. Lowry’s injury has given us some great value plays in Delon Wright and Fred Vanvleet the last couple days. I am going to list both Wright and Vanvleet as elite value plays because they are great sources of value. Wright is the safer option, but I think Vanvleet could have more upside and carries more risk.

Serge Ibaka is another elite play on the Raptors side of the ball that I want exposure to. I like him but with his price rising above $6000 it isn’t as easy of a play. There is a nice floor here and certainly a ton of upside for Ibaka. Jonas Valanciunas is not a play that I will roster on the Raptors. On paper the matchup looks great, but I am expecting him to get ran off the court and this game to go small. I think he is a great fade on a four-game slate, especially after he had a 39-fantasy point game. Since Ibaka is expected to return that will hurt CJ Miles and the value of OG Anunoby as well. I will not look to roster them and will target the guard value on Toronto instead.

Notable Injuries Kyle Lowry (questionable)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.5 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 10)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 10)

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Fred Vanvleet and Delon Wright

Secondary Plays – Serge Ibaka

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