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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 12 - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-03-12 23:03:16

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Memphis at Atlanta – 07:30 PM

Memphis Atlanta
memphisnba Vegas Total 194.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 194.5
Vegas Sprd +13.5 Vegas Sprd -13.5
Team Proj. 90.5 Team Proj. 104
Team Pace 95.52 Team Pace 99.02
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Briante Weber Tony Allen Matt Barnes JaMychal Green Ryan Hollins Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 5 17 12 17 24 Opp. Season 8 4 14 11 3
Opp. Last 7 8 6 14 14 15 Opp.Last 7 10 11 22 21 14

Memphis

Record: 39-26 — Road: 15-16 — Last 10: 7-3

The Grizzlies are depleted with injuries and Zach Randolph has already been ruled out for tonight. They also lost Vince Carter to an injury last night so they could even be more short-handed.

Atlanta isn’t a team I like to target and with Memphis being short-handed and this being their third game in four nights, this is a spot that they probably get rolled in. That would normally be a spot to fade, but given the Grizzlies injuries, these guys are going to be forced into big minutes and usage. Vince Carter is a guy to throw into the mix if he plays, but he’s currently questionable and I would expect Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson, and JaMychal Green to be heavily owned.

UPDATE – I failed to mention the Grizzlies signed Ray McCallum and he’s expected to be available to play tonight, although I haven’t seen any word on his minutes. I didn’t see him on DK, but he’s on FD and still listed as a member of the Spurs. I haven’t seen clarification on whether he’ll accumulate points on FD tonight but that is certainly something I’d check into before rostering him.

Elite Plays

Matt Barnes

If you’re looking to be contrarian then you want to stay away from Barnes, Lance, and Green tonight, because they are going to be very chalky. The reason is that they are locked into huge roles due to the Memphis injury situation. Barnes exploded for a huge 58 fantasy point outing last night, and will be relied on heavily again tonight, especially if Carter is out. His price didn’t budge after last night as the game hadn’t finished so while I wouldn’t expect another 50 fantasy points, his usage and minutes should lead him to value here.

FD — $4,800— SF
DK — $5,300– SF
Min/Game —Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 20.3

Lance Stephenson

Lance is in the same boat as Barnes in that he exploded last night and his price didn’t move because the games for today were already posted. The Grizzlies started D-league call up Weber, but Lance is going to see a ton of time with the ball in his hands, and be asked to make plays so he’s just too cheap given his role.

FD — $4,200— SG
DK — $4,800– SF
Min/Game —Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 27.2
FP/Game — Season: 11.9

JaMychal Green

Zach Randolph has been ruled out for tonight so Green will continue to shoulder the load on the interior. His price has really jumped and he struggled at times in the 1st half last night so he’s an interesting tournament fade, especially because he could be tired. However, he’s playing 37 minutes a night and the weakness of the Hawks has been their rebounding.

FD — $6,400— PF
DK — $6,000– PF
Min/Game —Season: 16.3 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 13.1

Secondary Plays

Tony Allen

Allen was the one Memphis wing to not go nuts as he’s not a very good offensive player. However, he is a guy who can really rack up peripheral stats and will have to play a ton so he should be in line for solid production at his cheap price point.

FD — $4,500— SG
DK — $5,000– SF
Min/Game —Season: 24.7 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 17.1

Atlanta

Record: 36-29 — Home: 19-12 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hawks get a tired and depleted Memphis team at home, and I think they should roll in this one.

On the season, the Grizzlies haven’t been a great team to target, but we can basically throw those numbers out as their entire team is injured. I’m a little leery of the blowout here, but some of these Atlanta starters should have their way if the game can stay competitive. The primary drawback with Atlanta is that they are similar to the Spurs in that they really spread around production.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap (Elite GPP)

Millsap was a guy I targeted heavily in cash games to start the year as he was very consistent, however that consistency has faded so he’s become a tournament option for me now. He’ll flash 50 fantasy upside then throw up 25 fantasy points so he’s tough to nail down, but he’s in a nice spot against a depleted Memphis interior.

FD — $7,800— PF
DK — $7,700– PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 36.8

Jeff Teague (GPP only)

Teague is another guy I only look to in tournaments as his minutes aren’t great due to the presence of Dennis Schroder. He is a guy who will bust out for 40 fantasy points every now and again, and he’s shown that upside twice in the past three games. He’ll be up against the defense of a D-League call in up in Weber.

FD — $6,400— PG
DK — $6,000– PG
Min/Game —Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 27.4
FP/Game — Season: 27.3

Al Horford

After a few quiet games, Horford’s price has dropped down to more playable levels. I like the matchup with the weakened Memphis interior but don’t like the lack of upside he’s shown recently.

FD — $7,100— C
DK — $6,700– C
Min/Game —Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 31.9

Oklahoma City at San Antonio – 08:30 PM

Oklahoma City San Antonio
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 210 sanantonionba Vegas Total 210
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 101.0 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 99.49 Team Pace 96.46
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 4 1 1 3 4 Opp. Season 24 23 9 10 5
Opp. Last 7 5 21 10 1 11 Opp. Season 19 10 24 30 6

Oklahoma City

Record: 44-21 — Road: 18-12 — Last 10: 4-6

The Thunder picked up a big win over the Clippers then managed to turn around and lose to Minnesota at home. They’re not playing great basketball right now and will have to head to San Antonio, where the Spurs are undefeated.

It’s not often you see the Thunder with a team total 9 points under their season average, but that’s what happens you face a team with a defense like the Spurs. If there’s ever a night to fade Durant and Westbrook then tonight is the night, and Durant in particular draws a very tough matchup.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Russell Westbrook

If I’m choosing between Westbrook and Durant then I’ll give the edge to Westbrook as he draws the more exploitable matchup against Tony Parker. However, his upside is still somewhat limited in this matchup against an elite Spurs defense. He’s a guy who always brings that 40 point fantasy floor to the table, but I do think his upside is limited tonight so I don’t feel the need to force him into my lineups like most nights.

FD — $10,900— PG
DK — $10,800– PG
Min/Game —Season: 34.7 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 49.3

Kevin Durant

In 26 games career games against the Spurs, he’s averaging 25.5 PPG, 7.7 RPG, and 3.5 APG, and in 10 games against Kawhi he’s averaged 25.2 PPG, 9 RPG, and 4.2 APG to go with 4.9 TO. Those are good numbers, but not what we need from him given his price point. He’s playing his best basketball of the year but given the matchup with Leonard, I’ll take the savings with Giannis tonight.

FD — $10,900— SF
DK — $10,500– SF
Min/Game —Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 46.2

San Antonio

Record: 55-10 — Home: 31-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Spurs are installed as solid 8 point favorites tonight as they have been untouchable at home this season. They are also getting a nice pace boost against an uptempo Thunder team.

The Spurs are back to full strength, which isn’t ideal as Pop can really spread around the minutes. The Spurs are a tricky team to target but Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge have been very good recently.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

I’m still leaning towards Giannis and Barnes as my top two SF, but I have Kawhi a close third and wouldn’t blame you if you like him the most. He’s throwing up 40 fantasy points on a nightly basis and put up 32 points and 8 rebounds in the first meeting between these two.

FD — $8,800— SF
DK — $8,500– SF
Min/Game —Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 36.8

Secondary Plays

Tony Parker (GPP)

I probably won’t roster him, but if you’re looking for cheap exposure to this game then Parker is an option. While Russell Westbrook has been great offensively, his defense has not been good this year, and Parker looked good in his last game. He’s cheap and in 23 career games against Westbrook, he’s averaged 16.4 PPG, 5.9 APG, and 3 RPG in 31 MPG.

FD — $5,100— PG
DK — $4,800– PG
Min/Game —Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 28.3
FP/Game — Season: 23.3

LaMarcus Aldridge (elite DK)

Due to his recent performances, his price is back on the rise, but he’s still affordable on DK. His minutes have finally upticked and while the Thunder haven’t been a team I’ve attacked with interior players this year, they are last in DVP against PF over the past week.

FD — $8,000— PF
DK — $7,400– PF
Min/Game —Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 31.7

Washington at Denver – 09:30 PM

Washington Denver
washingtonnba Vegas Total 213 denvernba Vegas Total 213
Vegas Sprd +1 Vegas Sprd -1
Team Proj. 106 Team Proj. 107
Team Pace 100.25 Team Pace 98.1
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Jr. Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opp. Season 17 27 15 25 17 Opp. Season 16 20 26 7 9
Opp. Last 7 3 7 26 28 2 Opp. Season 29 5 17 3 4

Washington

Record: 30-34 — Road: 14-17 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have lost four in a row and their playoffs hopes are fading so they’re in must win mode. In terms of fantasy potential, they’re in a nice spot as they have a team total of 106 points, which is 3.3 higher than their season average.

The Nuggets have been a solid team to target this year and present quality matchups at every position. The Wizards are on a back to back, and Randy Whitman has been very annoying with his minutes as John Wall is the only player guaranteed big minutes. Markieff Morris exploded one game against Philly (with Nene out), but has otherwise really lacked upside. If Nene sits on a back to back, he’s a guy to maybe take a look out but otherwise I’m avoiding this front court outside of Gortat. Ramon Sessions has also flashed a few times but Bradley Beal is probable for tonight so there are better options on the board.

Elite Plays

John Wall

Both Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry are on this slate, but Westbrook is in a very tough matchup and Curry is in a potential blowout so saving some cap space with Wall or Lillard is a very viable option tonight. Wall has been the one dependable Wizard and draws an elite matchup with a turnover prone rookie in Mudiay.

FD — $9,700— PG
DK — $9,500– PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 42.1

Secondary Plays

Marcin Gortat

Gortat’s minutes are really frustrating as he’ll play 25 then 33 and even played 40 against Philly. He only played 19 minutes last night so he should be well rested for tonight and the matchup is solid if he can get 30 minutes of run, which is the real question.

FD — $7,000— C
DK — $6,800– C
Min/Game —Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 27.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.3

Denver

Record: 27-38 — Home: 15-19 — Last 10: 5-5

The Nuggets are playing improved basketball and actually check in as 1 point favorites tonight. This game is expected to remain very competitive and should be high scoring, but it unfortunately also features two coaches that can be very frustrating with their minute distribution.

The Wizards have played poor defense all season long and present one of the better matchups to target at PG, SG and SF. They have been tough on the interior and I have absolutely no idea what to project the minutes of Kenneth Faried to be at on a nightly basis. He’s flashed big upside but he’s a tournament only option due to his minutes volatility and the matchup is not ideal.

D. J. Augustin is seeing around 20 MPG off the bench, and is putting up around 18 fantasy points per night recently, but there are other cheap PG that are potentially starting.

Elite Plays

Secondary Plays

Nikola Jokic

I don’t trust Mike Malone enough to have an elite option on a ten game slate, but there are some intriguing secondary options. The big question with Jokic is his minutes as he’s a great fantasy point per minute producer. Recently, the minutes have been there so the production has followed. Gortat is a solid defender but if Jokic is going to play 30 minutes then he provides upside at this price point and had 15 points and 10 rebounds in 25 minutes in the first meeting. He’s a secondary play because Mike Malone can cut his minutes at any time.

FD — $6,400— C
DK — $6,400– C
Min/Game —Season: 20.5 | Last Five Games: 28.8
FP/Game — Season: 22.7

Emmanuel Mudiay

Wall is typically a quality defender but his defense has slipped recently, and the Wizards are 29th in DVP against PG over the past week, including allowing a big game to Shelvin Mack last night. Mudiay meanwhile is playing his best ball of the year and has exceeded 30 fantasy points in five straight.

FD — $6,200— PG
DK — $6,800– PG
Min/Game —Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 24.9

Gary Harris

Harris isn’t a great tournament option, but he offers quality minute security for cash games. He’s averaging 38 MPG over his past five games, and the Wizards’ wing defense has been very poor all season long.

FD — $5,100— SG
DK — $5,100– SG
Min/Game —Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 19.7

Will Barton

While Harris makes for the better cash game option, Barton is the preferred tournament option. He brings a much higher ceiling than Harris and is coming off of a solid game. His minutes are not nearly as secure so I don’t trust him for cash games but the matchup is a good one.

FD — $5,800— SG
DK — $5,800– SG
Min/Game —Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 27.1

Orlando at Portland – 10:30 PM

Orlando Portland
orlandonba Vegas Total 215 portlandnba Vegas Total 215
Vegas Sprd +8 Vegas Sprd -8
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 111.5
Team Pace 97.78 Team Pace 97.73
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon Proj Starter Damian Lillard C. J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 20 19 4 19 25 Opp. Season 22 5 16 20 12
Opp. Last 7 30 27 8 13 20 Opp. Last 7 28 12 3 22 21

Orlando

Record: 28-36 — Road: 11-20 — Last 10: 4-6

The Magic are coming off of a win against Sacramento last night, and will face a Portland team that is really struggling defensively.

Like several other teams, the Magic are dealing with injuries and Nikola Vucevic is doubtful for tonight while Elfrid Payton is still questionable. Dewayne Dedmon drew the start last night, but that will likely be a time share between himself and Jason Smith. You can take a tournament shot on one of them but I don’t trust Scott Skiles enough to do so in anything other than a large field tournament.

Portland has been a quality team to target this season at every position except for SF. They’ve also been struggling defensively as they’ve allowed 116, 117 , 123, 109 (OT) and 128 (WarriorsP points over their last five games

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo

With Vucevic out and potentially Payton, Oladipo will pick up nice offensive usage. Portland has struggled against SG this season and are playing some very bad defense right now. I don’t love his price increase on DK but he’s definitely a guy to look towards on a site like FD that requires 2 SGs.

FD — $7,000— SG
DK — $7,500– SG
Min/Game —Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 37.5
FP/Game — Season: 28.7

Secondary Plays

Aaron Gordon (elite GPP)

I like his upside against a weak Portland interior, especially with Vucevic out, but the Scott Skiles factor leads him to being only a tournament option for me. He has performed very well in two of the past three games that Vuc has missed so he does carry solid tournament upside.

FD — $6,600— PF
DK — $7,000– PF
Min/Game —Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 28.0
FP/Game — Season: 21.1

Evan Fournier

He’s been rock solid over his past three games, but he could draw Aminu, who is a quality defender. His minutes are very secure and if Payton is out then he’s a guy to definitely consider but SF is pretty strong tonight.

FD — $5,500— SF
DK — $6,100– SG
Min/Game —Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 23.2

C. J. Watson(if Elfrid Payton is out)

It’s tough to trust Scott Skiles but if Payton is out, he seems to trust the veteran Watson as he drew the start over Brandon Jennings last night and played 34 minutes after playing 25 in the prior game. If Payton is out once again then punting the PG position with two of Bayless, Watson or Douglas (if Cole is out) becomes an interesting strategy to load up elsewhere. In the last two games, Watson has put up 21 and 24 FD points, which pays off his minimum price tag.

FD — $3,600— PG
DK — $3,400– PG
Min/Game —Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 24.2
FP/Game — Season: 12

Portland

Record: 34-32 — Home: 20-12 — Last 10: 5-5

Portland is coming off of a throttling by the Warriors but is in a nice rebound spot with a team total of 111 points.

Orlando is average all around defensively and Vegas likes Portland to rebound with a strong offensive performance here.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard

Lillard really disappointed last night and was heavily owned, but hopefully that leads to low ownership tonight. The Magic are 22nd in DVP against PG and Lillard is the primary offensive weapon for a team with a total of 110 points. He offers solid savings from Westbrook and Curry, and for cash games the punt PG or the range of Wall, Lillard and Holiday are where I am looking.

FD — $9,600— PG
DK — $9,800– PG
Min/Game —Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 40.9

Secondary Plays

C. J. McCollum

His price has finally started to come back down to the $7,000 range, and he often flies under the radar due to Lillard. He’s in play tonight, but I may personally stay away as Oladipo is a strong defender.

FD — $6,800— SG
DK — $7,100– SG
Min/Game —Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.7

Phoenix at Golden State – 10:30 PM

Phoenix Golden State
phoenixnba Vegas Total 226 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 226
Vegas Sprd 18.0 Vegas Sprd -18.0
Team Proj. 104.3 Team Proj. 122.3
Team Pace 100.34 Team Pace 102.26
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ronnie Price Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Alex Len Tyson Chandler Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 26 11 13 15 20 Opp. Season 29 30 29 14 10
Opp. Last 7 18 25 4 17 9 Opp. Last 7 26 30 19 15 27

Phoenix

Record: 17-48 — Road: 6-26 — Last 10: 3-7

This is an odd game in that it checks in with the highest total on the slate at a very high 227 points, but there is extreme blowout risk as the spread is at 17 points. These two teams have played three teams and while the last meeting stayed competitive in Phoenix, the other two were blowouts, including a 128-103 Warriors win in Oracle.

The Warriors are an elite defense when they want to lock in, but they play at such a fast pace that are a solid team to target. They also go through stretches where they will be complacent.

The key information to note here is that Brandon Knight returned last game but came off the bench to play 25 minutes. He’s expected to step back into the starting lineup sometime soon, and it’s unclear if that will be tonight. Based on that I’d be careful with both Price and Knight, unless word comes down prior to lineup lock. Knight’s price is down and if he’s under no minutes restriction then he’s a potential GPP option. However, if he’s still going to be limited to that 25 minute range then I’d pass.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Alex Len

Len’s price has finally jumped and he’s been down over his past two games. That should finally lead to low ownership and he’s someone I’m still considering in tournaments. He’s just 6 for his last 25 over his past two games so his shooting struggles should correct itself. The worry here is whether the Suns will play Len and Booker in spite of the blowout. The Suns have said they want to get them both experience so they should both play solid minutes, despite game flow concerns, so Len remains on my tournament radar.

FD — $6,700— C
DK — $7,000– C
Min/Game —Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 19.9

Devin Booker

While Len has struggled from the floor recently, that certainly hasn’t been the case with Booker as he’s lighting the scoreboard up. He’s scored 27 or more points in four of his last five games, and this pace should suit him well. I don’t love the price bump so he’s not a must but he’s also someone that is still on the radar given the pace of this game.

FD — $6,300— SG
DK — $6,100– SG
Min/Game —Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 39.6
FP/Game — Season: 17.7

Golden State

Record: 58-6 — Home: 29-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors check in with the highest total on this slate at 122 points, however, there are some red flags. The first is that they are 17 point favorites so their starters could sit for most of the 4th quarter, especially because this is a back to back AND their third game in four nights.

Given the spread on this game, I would expect Iguodala to sit, and the Warriors should have no trouble shredding this awful Phoenix defense. If Iguodala does sit then Harrison Barnes could see a little extra run but the blowout factor still looms.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Stephen Curry ( Elite GPP)

It’s a tough call on the Warriors big three tonight as each could easily go off in three quarters and some of their starters played into the 4th in a blowout last night. Curry has the ability to absolutely torch the Suns in three quarters and he’s done that in two of the three games with 41 points, 6 rebounds and 8 assists in the first meeting, and 26 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists in the last meeting. Sandwhiched in between those games as an average 25 points, 2 rebounds and 7 assists. He’s a guy I definitely want some GPP exposure to tonight, but I think there are safer cash game options at cheaper price points.

FD — $10,600— PG
DK — $10,300– PG
Min/Game —Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 47.9

Klay Thompson ( Elite GPP)

Klay is in the same boat as Curry in that he can easily go off for 40 real points in this one. He’s been pretty average in two of the three meetings, but he exploded for 43 points in one of their matcups. He has big tournament upside and he shot the ball great last night so he comes into this one with a hot hand. Like Curry, he’s a guy I’ll sprinkle into my tournament lineups, but I don’t think he’s a cash game must.
.

FD — $7,000— SG
DK — $7,000– SG
Min/Game —Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.5

Draymond Green

Green has continued to struggle offensively, and has had nights where he scores 1 or 2 real life points. However, that has brought his price down to a manageable level where we can target him in positive spots. He’s put together back to back strong performances, and has two strong showings against Phoenix this year, but one dud. On the season he’s averaging 13.0 PPG, 9 RPG and 7.7 APG against Phoenix, which is solid. The three games in four nights and blowout factor are the primary drawback here as it would reason that Golden State could limit some of their guys here.

FD — $8,200— PF
DK — $8,000– PF
Min/Game —Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 38.6

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a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)